Re: Brexit (New).
 

Makes sense.
So what is the best way forward now? Rescind Article 50 and do what you suggest should have been done from Day One?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/loc...03/1.jpg:small

---------- Post added at 10:01 ---------- Previous post was at 09:24 ----------

https://www.conservativehome.com/hig...ng-at-all.html

The penny is dropping but is it too late?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

FAKE NEWS! I know it was more, my life experience tells me so. Also, I asked my daughter (who was there) and she agrees with me :)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Yes the ERG are blinking but it's too late. They twice had the chance to vote for Brexit but didn't, unbelievable. Even with DUP/ERG support the Govt lost last night's vote; so even if they change sides it might not be enough. Meanwhile more more ministers resign and vote the other way.....
The deal is dead, it is a dead deal, it has ceased to exist, it is a dead parrott ;)
More might resign if she doesn't allow a free vote tomorrow.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

A function of Parliament is to protect the electorate from themselves. If the electorate really want Brexit they can hold MPs to account at the next General Election. I’d actually encourage them to do so. That’s a healthy democracy at work.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I feel sorry for the "Stupid" of society that thought leaving meant we retain the same access to the EU as we do now.

I voted with the intention that we left with or without a deal.

I also understood the complications of being tied upto the EU so much that leaving would probably have been complicated but I was prepared to take that chance.

It's just a shame our MP's have their own agenda. I have to put up with the Dirty Richard Burgon up here in Leeds. I won't be voting for him come election time

Re: Brexit (New).
 

BREAKING: Being touted via Journalists that Theresa May to address Conservatives 1922 Committee tomorrow evening (Probably to resign).

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No surprise if true Mick.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

If true, where would this leave us in terms of extension period/no deal and everything else? Apart from in deeper doo doo than we already are....

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Just in from BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg: A lot of Cabinet have just gone back into Number 10 ... not sure why.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Surprise Birthday Party for May

Re: Brexit (New).
 

guess either resign or general election

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Both unlikely to put a end to the current shitshow..

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Maybe she doesn't even know herself. A lot can happen between now and then!

Re: Brexit (New).
 

agree totally either though I not calling for one maybe a second referendum is only way to sort it out

Re: Brexit (New).
 

But will a second referendum solve anything Dave or just make things worse?.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Unless legislation is passed by BOTH houses by close of play Fiday. We're out as of Saturday.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

don't know that the problem Den no one has any idea how to sort this out

---------- Post added at 13:37 ---------- Previous post was at 13:35 ----------

wrong again Andrea Leadsom just confirmed in parliament international law already changed to 12th April or 22nd May earliest we out is 12th April

Re: Brexit (New).
 

As has been pointed out we'll still be in as it's an intentional agreement.

But the Government is tabling the date change tomorrow anyways.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

<snigger> https://www.cableforum.uk/images/loc...03/1.png:large

Re: Brexit (New).
 

to be followed by 30th June, 25th Aug, 9th Oct, 3rd Dec . . and repeat until the polar icecaps are mere puddles in the sand (or Watford win a cup) :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We may well be in the doghouse as far as international law goes, but despite what she says, there is still a clash here.

The EU Withdrawal Act repeals the international law (1972 European Act) so as far as things here in the UK go, they do need that SI passed, otherwise there will be two sets of conflicting law governing the UK from 11.01pm on Friday.

---------- Post added at 17:49 ---------- Previous post was at 17:42 ----------

They need to, because the international agreement only carries force as far as the UK goes, because our domestic legislation makes that so. The very same international agreement that is meant to be repealed on Friday night.

I feel a Supreme Court case coming if that SI doesn't get voted through.

We cannot be governed by two sets of different conflicting laws.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This may have been posted before but the DUP* are now saying a one-year Brexit delay would be better than agreeing PM's deal.

As a counter to this the Moggster is changing his mind (apparently something he can do but the country can't) and will back TM's deal. I guess they are now afraid of losing Brexit all together so they now see this as better than nothing.

I do think May is slowly browbeating Tory MP's to back her deal but if she can get near the number she needs, how does she get over the Bercow ruling?




* described today on Twitter as the Political Wing of the Old Testament :)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It will make things worse. Imagine the arguments if 'Remain' won but with a much lower turnout.

The referendum has been held already. Another one would solve nothing, even if Leave won it. The remainers would still want to stay and would find new ways to have yet another referendum.

We know the pathetic game they are playing.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Tory Brexiteers claim PM may have 'unlawfully' delayed UK's EU exit
A quartet of Tory Brexiteers have written to the prime minister to question her right to delay Brexit without having first consulted MPs.

They write: "We are gravely concerned that you are unlawfully seeking to extend the UK’s membership of the EU."

The letter is signed by Sir Bill Cash, former Brexit ministers David Jones and Suella Braverman, and Michael Tomlinson.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-ther...ntrol-11675336

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Another referendum with clearly defined choices and a clearly defined percentage requirement to achieve victory would solve the situation perfectly.

Saying that remainers are playing pathetic games because it doesn’t fit with your political beliefs just shows your true colours for all to see

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think the speed you slip into the pejorative shows that you are worried. You should be. If the Hard Brexiters do not swallow their pride, lose face and sign up to Mrs May's deal then they will lose the prize. We will get a watered down Brexit and maybe no Brexit at all.

Even, *gasp*, JC is now uttering phrases like "MPs should consider public vote on Brexit deal".

Things like the Petition and the March in London will vividly remind the MP's in Parliament that they need to vote in the country's interests and conclude this debacle with a solution that tries to be inclusive to both sides and failing that, asks the people to make the final decision.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Anyone feeling the Brexit blues might want to watch BBC2 at 22:00 tonight.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

To save anyone else having to search, it's a comedy programme presented by Matt Berry called "Road to Brexit".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/pr...road-to-brexit

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No thanks as there are far more interesting things to watch on our TV Richard.;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Jonathan Pie is a fictitious British news reporter but, whether you are a Leaver or Remainer, please watch this:



Warning, there is some choice language but the points he makes sums up the last 10 years perfectly ...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I hate Jonathan Pie. It's the same routine each and every time and he never even understands the underlying points. There is one where he is whining about moral/social messages in films and says this brilliant line "It's the politicisation of art and therefore the end of art". Idiot.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Lol, agree Den. ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It will make things better. A well informed electorate will make a choice based on facts and not speculation. Said referendum will either affirm the first result or overwhelmingly reject it. No person who claims to value democracy can deny that.

Far from pathetic it’s adding value to the process.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What if they have another referendum and the choices given lets say 6 and they are all pretty close what do we do? Just go with the one with the highest votes regardless or argue that the next one down is 8 people away from a win?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So you think the points he makes are wrong. Interesting ...

I think he understands the underlying points more than most. More than Cameron ever did.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Old rees smugg needs to have a good look at himself imo, this deal was so bad a month ago he tried to bring down the pm, it's not changed, if it was that bad then he shouldn't be voting for it now

Also shows a pretty poor grasp of English to describe these "games" as pathetic seeing as they're getting what they want, if anyone is looking vulnerable, miserable, inadequate or pitiful it's not them

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The most popular choice of any six is remain. Any two leave positions vying for second is about seven million votes shy.

If there’s a single leave position with 16 million votes I’d gladly support it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Re: Brexit (New).
 

very interesting and how come JRM changing his mind isn’t an affront to democracy yet it would be if the people change theirs?? brexiteer hypocrisy

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Still using totally flawed logic with polls that have been and still are largely wrong and unreliable.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

He's not changed his mind, Dave, he's just been forced into answering a different question. May's deal or no Brexit.

---------- Post added at 07:28 ---------- Previous post was at 07:22 ----------

So not content with letting Parliament take over from Government, you now want the general public to take over the business of governing from Parliament.

Interesting. Good luck with that.

---------- Post added at 07:30 ---------- Previous post was at 07:28 ----------

Of course, everyone is worried. I agree that the Brexiteers need to sign up to May's deal. Given that 'no deal' has been ruled out, the Withdrawal Agreement is the only way to deliver what the electorate voted for.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Mogg knows May's Brexit is worse than Remaining, but is financially reliant on any form of Brexit.

When even ardent Leave supporters can see Remaining until another day is better than May's deal, maybe parliament should re-think the whole process.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Of course it's not worse than remaining. It paves the way to a trade deal with the EU, negotiations for which have not yet begun.

JRM simply held the view that it was better to negotiate from scratch, from outside the EU.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The ERG has been playing for No Deal because they think that’s the best outcome and because they thought it was achievable.

They still think it’s the best outcome, but now they know it’s not achievable. Mogg is correct to say that Brexit is a process, not an event. The single most important thing we can do right now is to regain sovereign control over everything we have surrendered to the acquis over the last 40 years. Certain actions may continue to be limited on our part by treaty, but bilateral treaties that can be renegotiated or terminated in the national interest are an entirely different proposition than the acquis communautaire, which all member states are obliged to accept in its entirety without possibility of withdrawing from bits of it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

People have put you right on this before so I won't rerun the argument.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Of course it is worse than remaining (from his point of view).

We enter negotiations with the EU working from a starting point where if they do literally nothing we remain in the backstop arrangements. No trade deals with anyone else.

To achieve the latter we’d need to make huge concessions to the EU.

I on the other hand think the deal is good, mainly because it’s close enough to remaining for my taste.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Two quotes from Jacob Rees-Mogg one in July last year and one today.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Are you saying he's a self serving hypocrite Den? ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

l will let others answer that Mr K.;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

He also said this week that he had done some thinking that he had not done before, and had begun to see Brexit as a process rather than as an event.*

What everyone seems to have forgotten is that once we are a sovereign nation state again we negotiate and sign treaties with the EU as a third party, not as a member obliged to accept the acquis.

Had the WA been the last word on our future relationship with the EU then it would have been a disaster, but it is not.

*Eurosceptic MEP Daniel Hannan has been making this point for years - he has always argued for gradual divergence from EU law wherever it suited us, rather than an ideological sudden break.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It could be though without significant concessions to the EU. If we found it difficult to realise they held all the cards after all the backstop enshrines it in international law.

Unless the Tories plan is to sacrifice Northern Ireland at a later date.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47718367



Meanwhile, leading Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has said he will only back the government's Brexit deal if the DUP does.

On Tuesday, he had hinted he could back the prime minister's plan, at the risk of there not being any Brexit at all.

But in a piece for the Daily Mail, he said his support is conditional on the DUP's decision.

So far, the DUP has not indicated that it is prepared to back the government's deal unless there are changes to the Irish border backstop.

On Tuesday, Sammy Wilson, the party's Brexit spokesperson, said a long delay of up to a year would be preferable to the deal.

But the DUP said its position as a whole remains unchanged.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Sorry but I do not have any posh french words to describe the blatant revisionism going on here. Mogg, Johnson and co. were extremely clear on what May's deal represented to them. There was no ambiguity: the term "Vassal state" springs to mind ...

They are political liars & chancers, seeking to reward themselves and their associates. Nothing more.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I’m not here to defend Mogg or anyone in particular. As it happens I think Mogg is being a little revisionist of his own position. I’m just trying to ensure the discussion is a little closer to the totality of what people have said, rather than obsessing over selective one-liners that validate our existing viewpoints.

Acquis communautaire isn’t just fancy French for the sake of it. It is one of the key principles of the European Union and its existence is the reason for one of the main principled objections to UK membership. The Acquis is the body of EU law, but it is also the principle that once an area of national competence has become part of the body of EU law, it remains there permanently, and EU membership mandates full compliance with it.

As a third party, the UK can form treaties with the EU (or any other state, or supra-national institution) that allow cooperation on issues where it is in the mutual interest of the UK and whoever else. That means we may operate in line with the Acquis in some things, but crucially because we are not members of the EU we are not bound by all of it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What is a hard Brexiteer?

I am sick of these unjustly qualifying terms being used. There is no such thing. You want to Remain, you are not a hard Remainer. A person who wants to leave is not a hard leaver.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Isn't it used as a definition of the way of wanting to leave? e.g hard brexiteer wants to leave with no deal etc. Presumably there's only one current way to remain in the EU hence no, hard remainer?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Exactly. The fact that Parliament is having so many votes suggests that it has moved on from the binary.
A hard Remainer could be someone who wants to join the Eurozone.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We voted out perhaps remainers are hard of hearing a swell as hard of understanding.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

There are many ways of leaving the EU as is obvious, because you or others want to leave in one specific manner does not equal that ALL those who wanted to voted to leave wish to do so by the same method.

It's used as a way to differentiator, so why you see it to take a dig at people who who are sympathetic to remain I don't know ?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I don't believe they are the only two outcomes.

You forgot, slightly reject it. If Remain won by the same margin as Leave won last time, or less. Or if Leave won by an even smaller majority, it solves and decides nothing.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Then we continue in limbo. Eventually the people will have to conclusively settle the argument. If people concluded by majority to vote for no deal, May’s deal, Norway or some other definition of leave the weaknesses of the leave argument at present would be gone.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The problem (for some) with any kind of second referendum/vote is that it will split the 'leavers' votes, therefore leaving 'remain' well out in front

Remain have one choice . . to remain as is.

Leave can be offered multiple choices on how to leave, and there's no way 17 million will all choose the same one.

IMO we will be going through multiple brexit choices until somebody is brave enough to pull the plug and we leave with no deal. Only then can the politicians have a clear path in front of them instead of wandering up and down blind alleys

Re: Brexit (New).
 

remain requires 65/70% to win

leave with mays/leave no deal requires 65/70% combined to win

If leave with mays deal/leave no deal wins then the higher percentage of the two options is the route taken.

I could not argue with that and would accept to leave.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

oh if only it was that easy :D

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It is a tad simplistic :p:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

But you keep telling me that Parliament is sovereign, and that they can do whatever they want regardless of what the people say. How come you now put it back to the people to sort out. When they already spoke clearly first time around.

Parliament should have enacted the will of the people first time around.

Are you saying we should a referendum of indicative votes?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That was the wrong people speaking the wrong answer.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So, here's the problem with that statement and again we go back to the crux of the issue

There was no definition of what leave meant, and leave means different things to different leave voters. This is not the fault of those who voted to leave, it's the fault of the government for not phrasing the question with enough detail.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Parliament is sovereign. However, following a second referendum to leave there would be no room for MPs to manoeuvre. The people have spoken clearly, with full knowledge there would be no unicorn Brexit.

If Parliament can’t make a decision then it has to go back to the people. Self serving politicians don’t want blame.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What if the people can't make a decision?

What margin of victory would be seen as acceptable.

What if it was

17,000,001 Remain

and

17,000,000 Leave

Do we Remain, all's fair, accept the result and bugger off.

and vice versa, Leave vote confirmed beyond question?

This is why a second referendum would be an absolute disaster. It has be sorted out now.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Theresa May tells Tory MPs she will resign before next phase of Brexit talks.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...quit-live-news

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Problem with that is that it's conditional on her deal being voted through. At the moment, MPs may not even get a chance to even vote on it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

exactly Bercow said again got to be significant change and everyone know it exact same deal

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Indeed the deal has to go through but if it does then there will be a Conservative leadership contest to elect a new leader to replace her and then there will probably be a General Election after that.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The problem we have is MP's that are out for themselves with their version of how they want to leave not what the people want as a leave option.

I don't agree with what's happening now at all.

If May's deal doesn't go through and she leaves anyway then what? end of Brexit?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Probably one of the options voted on today. MPs had two chances to support Theresa's deal but decided not to. The people are increasingly against Brexit and those who still want to leave have different views on how to do so.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

According to some polls, but no real idea by what, if any, margin.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Boris Johnson has now said he is going to vote for May's deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

You wish! But it would be a shame to burst your bubble.

There will be a very severe reaction from the public if Brexit, the people's choice, is defeated by the unacceptable anti-democratic forces who are making such a fuss.

The remainer's march will be nothing compared with the response we'll see to any decision to remain in the EU.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No bubble to be burst. Even amongst leave supporters, there is no one common on how best to leave the EU. Leave supporters are as divided as Parliament on this point.
I was against a second referendum and I'm certainly against a third vote on the same question. That's why Theresa May could make such an offer knowing it's unlikely to happen.

---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:34 ----------

Some interesting data in here for you, Pierre. Not seen any recent polls putting leave in front.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47693645

None of this should detract from my main point to Carth - there isn't one homogenous way that leave voters want to leave.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This one is...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

severe reaction = wetherspoons having to increase orders? :)

One thinks it will be perhaps slightly more than than the leave means leave march. currently at 100 people but i highly doubt it will be as high as the revoke gathering.

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/m...t-live-2679976

---------- Post added at 20:07 ---------- Previous post was at 20:04 ----------

Some interesting data here

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The country is still split down the middle. It’s mad to suggest ‘the people’ are behind Brexit or Remain. There is clearly a drift to Remain in polling but no where near enough to put it to bed. Another referendum would need 60%+ to be useful IMO and it doesn’t appear anyone is getting that.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This from Sky News.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

May cant win without them

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Not in a month of Sunday's Dave.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Correct.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

date change law passes 441 for 105 against majority 336

Re: Brexit (New).
 

They're still counting the indicative votes. The expectation is no majority for any option but they want/hope for clear leaders to eliminate some and vote again next week.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This is what they should have done before invoking Article 50. Sounds like there have been some really good speeches.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Ken Clarks UK-Wide Custom's Union only just lost by a few votes.
Second Referendum was close too.

---------- Post added at 21:43 ---------- Previous post was at 21:42 ----------

No Deal 160-400
Common Market 2.0 188-283
EEA 65-377
Customs Union 264-272
Lab 237-307
Revocation 184-293
2 ref 268-295
Malthouse B 139-422

Customs Union v close.

May's Deal + Customs Union?

2nd Ref is runner up.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Checkmate you could say..

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think if May added a Customs Union to the deal it would be done.

DUP would back it surely. The risk to them is the backstop being solved by cutting off Northern Ireland. The backstop is gone.

---------- Post added at 21:54 ---------- Previous post was at 21:48 ----------

2nd referendum did far better than I thought. Common Market 2.0 did awful. Remainers thinking they can win the whole thing.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Adam Bolton from Sky News.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

This is just nuts. No majority for anything ... so much for Parliament taking over and fixing everything. They must now accept that the executive has done its job and ratify the WA, surely?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

If we take May's deal as the benchmark then in order of least failure:

- Ken Clark's Customs Union
- Public Vote (on May's Deal or May's Deal + Customs Union)
- Labour's deal I don't understand
- Common Market 2
- Revocation

Re: Brexit (New).
 

You might as well rearrange deckchairs on the Titanic. Every one of those proposals failed. Every single one. Parliament is a disgrace.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The assumption is MPs voted tactically to eliminate the 'soft' Brexit options they do not support. The SNP for example did not vote for the Common Market because they wanted to boost the chances of Second Referendum. The reveal of the results might cause shifts now.

For example Tories might file in behind Customs Union because it's so close to getting a majority and is the easiest to implement with May's agreement. It might also be possible some people voted Revoke and not Second referendum. They might shift. Common Market 2.0 supporters could split between Customs Union and Referendum.

It's run-off time. I think Ken Clark's Customs Union will get a majority next week.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

BBC now playing footage of Corbyn wailing earlier today that the Prime Minister has failed because she can’t build a consensus. How hollow he sounds now.

---------- Post added at 22:09 ---------- Previous post was at 22:05 ----------

The paper ballots were supposed to stop people looking over their shoulders in the lobbies and voting tactically. If they were actually still all sitting there with their papers poring over the options and trying to second guess each other then that’s actually worse in my view. We are at a point of national crisis, Parliament had the chance to draw a line under it, but instead they decided to play political games. Disgraceful.