re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

That may or not be the case but the reaction to this dissent when compared to the Labour example I cited is very different ..

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

But Cameron said up front that this would be allowed (and it's still getting lots of press attention) - Corbyn dithered about whether a free vote would be allowed, giving mixed messages.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Corbyn dithered??!!! :eeek: :eek: :Yikes:



:D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

l think the worry for the Conservative party is how united can they keep over Europe in the next few years because as we all know disunited parties do not go down well with the electorate as the Tories and Labour have found out before.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...tuency-cameron

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...Corn-Laws.html

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Doesn't Germany export about 9 billion pounds worth of goods to us, add that loss on top of the VW cheating problems where they are selling less cars, then they stand to lose way more than us which could make things very much easier to create a new trade deal.

France will lose millions not selling to us, the farmers there will soon sort it's oliticians again to get trade going with us, in the meantime our farmers will go into full production to supply our supermarkets, can't be a bad thing.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

We have a trade deficit with the EU and Germany, in particular, sells a lot of high-value machinery here. There might be some petulant nonentities in the European Parliament that would like to "punish" the UK for leaving, but it's not up to them. The trade arrangements between the UK and the EU would be decided by the Council of Ministers, where Angela Merkel will make damn sure her industrial base continues to enjoy privileged access to our market.

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Indeed, I doubt very much that BMW, Audi, & VW would like to see a levy on put on their goods and would lobby very hard for a free trade deal with the U.K. Not to mention the champagne and wine producers of France.

Anyway all this talk of a conservative split etc is totally irrelevant. It would have mattered if it was a parliamentary vote, but this is a national referendum. 120 odd dissenting MP's means nothing when 50+ million are potentially voting.

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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I just wish the media in general would pace it's self. We have around 5 months before we have to decide...plenty of time to read and research..just not all at once.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

We need more of this well-balanced, non-emotive, fact based journalism in this debate ... and apparantly, all murders will stop too .. nice:

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It's not just the selling and buying of cars that's the issue though. It's about where those cars are made, regulations on cars and how the EU trade deals help car manufacturers access foreign markets.

The car industry would rather stay: https://next.ft.com/content/ab31282a...a-00144feabdc0

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

And the weather will improve as well... :D

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Maybe not all murders but the amount of crime committed by EU migrants far exceeds what you would expect for the percentage of them here.

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Makes me laugh big firms warn over EU exit will cause job losses.....you mean it will put an end to cheap labour and migrant workers and stop these fat cats from making huge sums of money from everyone else's expense

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Yes, and we were threatened with carmageddon if we didn't join the Euro as well. That's the problem with so many of these anti-Brexit assertions: they are in many cases just re-heated anti-Pound assertions ... assertions which have been shown to be not just wrong, but dangerously wrong.

Most of the world's cars are made and driven outside of the EU. The idea that EU membership is some sort of all-conquering super-weapon, without which we can't possibly function in the world, is just nonsense. Most of the world is not in the EU, and most of the world's nations have smaller economies than we do.

Most of the world's economies are growing. The EU economy, when judged as a whole, is sclerotic. We are already bucking the trend, growing despite the EU, not because of it. We are shackled to a corpse, as Dan Hannan is fond of saying.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Sounds like a totally irrational, racist, swivel eyed loon to me... :rolleyes:

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

An excellent, brief summary of a few of the big issues. Sadly, the vast majority of people who vote this June won't get to see it, or anything like it.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I really am undecided at the moment - one thing that might make me vote for "Out" is that it would make Nigel Farage unemployed... :D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Exacty! I can understand why the leaders of the EU want us to stay in, that's obvious. What's a mystery to me is why so many of our politicians want us to stay in?!:confused:

---------- Post added at 14:21 ---------- Previous post was at 14:19 ----------

When I went to listen to him speak last year he said that he'd be delighted to be out of a job for that reason.....

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Because it's a difficult question with many upsides/downsides?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

:clap:

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The idea of making the EU Ambassador to Yorkshire and the Humber, Richard Corbett MEP, unemployed is one that makes me happy I must admit.

It'd be a pyrrhic victory for sure, for past services rendered he'd be rapidly employed by the EU or a think tank, but nonetheless pleasing.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Yes, it will be nice to get back to the cheaper days when the Foreign Secretaries of countries would get together to develop trade links and trade deals without requiring a mass of MEPs to be involved in the process.

Imagine the savings of not having to pay the salaries, expenses, allowances and pensions of MEPs and their associated entourages.

We should also save by not having to pay VAT like America and others outside the EU.

Just hope that enough of the "don't knows" decide to vote to leave the EU if only to prove to David Cameron that he got it wrong.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

And from where will the Government replace all the income from VAT?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Three major BBC EU referendum debates announced in the run up to the referendum..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/lat...rendum-debates

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

They will probably increase income tax but we will also have money from not having to pay our massive contribution to the EU.

Even if the government slapped on a purchase tax of 10% it would still be cheaper than VAT and would make our goods and services more competitive.

Might also give them an incentive to reduce the cost of government.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

VAT raised £105 billion in 2013/2014 - net contribution to the EU in that year was £11.3 billion.

Anyway, an "amusing" video from our UKIP friends - it's very amusing, but not in the way they meant...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk

It's the same woman twice, but once in a blonde wig... (I love the line "They’ve taken all our fish")

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

VAT brings in roughly £100 Billion in income a year. The EU contribution is about £8.5 billion (after rebates).

That income tax is going to have to go up a fair bit.

Anyway this 'no more VAT' is a new one. Where did that come from?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I think the big reason they want us to stay other than our cash contributions is because it might well start a trend and collapse the whole thing. It is a bit of mystery why so many of our politicians want to stay in, might be a bit to easy to say all they're worried about is future career prospects at the expense of the rest of us and the country

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

As far as I know goods bought from the EU by non EU members are not liable to VAT if the goods are totally for use outside the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Maybe they genuinely think there are economic advantages to being the EU?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Yet they are liable then for vat/sales tax within the country of the non-eu member. You pay the tax within the EU if a member or outside if not a member unless the goods are zero rated.

Import duty is the thing which will be charged for goods bought from the EU if we leave. Mind you it will go to our government as well as the VAT going to the UK instead of the source country.

---------- Post added at 17:04 ---------- Previous post was at 16:53 ----------

One important question as to these claims of renegotiating import\export duties is what's likely to be the leaving timeline? I expect many years to leave fully and not just a short time after a leave vote. If a short time then a lot of the greater costs may come to fruition for a limited time but if a long time then although it will give more time to renegotiate it may also create more issues with things like immigration. I wonder if we'll have an inrush whilst we're still members with people trying to beat the deadline?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

No it isn't. It's a question of the survival of the UK as an independent sovereign nation.

---------- Post added at 17:48 ---------- Previous post was at 17:44 ----------

If that's the reason then they are traitors.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

This.

Has crossed my mind once or twice, it has to be a concern for the PTB in Europe, especially as it's all going to **** anyway with half of the middle East on their way.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I reckon that the UK being in the EU has proved to have all the financial disadvantages of an unhappy marriage and acrimonious divorce without even the relief at no longer having to put up with the unreasonable ex... :D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Well that's it isn't? You are so convinced you're right that you can't fathom how anyone else can think differently, that would be why you can't understand them.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

From today's Times.

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1456255273

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

A similar article as that FT one in The Times today looking at the possible consequences of Brexit:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/p...cle4697926.ece

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Simply because on this topic it's as simple as night follows day.
In other words, if we vote to stay in, we will get ever closer political union with the EU until we are eventually completely governed by it.
Our political class must be aware of this fact..... unless they are idiots.
If they are aware of it and still support staying in, they are traitors, imo.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Not strictly true, unless something changes. From the document.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I would say they're not convinced that ever closer political union would happen or that we couldn't resist it if it did. Meanwhile there are economic considerations which, rather than the issue of sovereignty, is what's driving their opinion.

I mean if the economic does take a hit then the politicians won't be let off on the understanding we at least have left the European Union.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

IMHO, the prospect of ever closer union has never seemed more distant with so many countries making up the rules as they go along and passing the buck their neighbours in one way or another whether it be migrants or austerity. The Greek crisis hasn't gone away and the migration crisis hasn't either. To be honest I'm less concerned about ever closer union than I have been for a long time. I more worried about the EU falling apart acrimoniously as a result of numerous scores which are going to have to be settled sooner or later. I'm also concerned about the inability or unwillingness of the Eurocrats to see what's in front of their noses and act accordingly. The EU is the Titanic heading towards that iceberg with a committee incapable of agreement about which way to turn at the helm.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Pretty shocking video of what David Cameron said to other EU leaders when he thought they were in private, shows he wanted to stay In all along. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The most shocking thing about that is that I can recall when it was a hit. :erm:

;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Seems we're not alone in EU scepticism:

Linky

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

As for Sovereignty this article makes a good point:

The EU is only one way in which we've essentially given up some aspects of sovereignty in exchange for something else. The question shouldn't be in the UK is sovereign or not but if this particular arrangement is one we want to keep. I mean most of us here support NATO don't we? But that's pooling our defensive resources and even policy to an extent.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Based on what has happened so far since the last time we were told that we definitely weren't signing up to a political union (1975) and the EU's self proclaimed ratchet mechanism that they have built into their stated aims of ever closer fiscal and political union, we know that the above quote is not worth the electrons it's written with.

---------- Post added at 14:19 ---------- Previous post was at 14:16 ----------

....and it's with such on the face of it reasonable but in actual fact weasle words that we will bit by bit be conned into giving up more and more sovereignty......if we buy into that kind of b*ll*cks

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

How so? The article is pro-EU obviously but I think the point above sovereignty, that it isn't absolute and increasingly fluid as the world becomes more global, is a good one.

Even outside the EU we'll be subject to global deals, organisations and influences where we will not be able to operate with complete independence.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I think if the EU leaves the EU others will want to do likewise or at least negotiate a better deal. It seems Holland may have already decided to do so. The EU's in between a rock and a hard place - if they're seen to cave in to the UK, they'll be setting a dangerous precedent, whereas they must know that if we leave the EU will be much worse off. Ironically, the UK leaving might be the very best thing which could happen for the future of the EU because it may force them to see sense and act accordingly.

This whole thing is a highly complex mess and the fact that the PM can argue that the concessions can't be reversed and Gove can argue the opposite is evidence of that. The legal arguments are complicated and I can't help feeling that it'll be some 'judges' somewhere who'll decide which side is right regardless of what the politicians have 'promised' before the referendum.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

But at least we will be able to create and change our own laws and not have laws imposed on us from the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Now that would be nice. :tu:

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

But to what extent is this an illusion, as Cameron would put it, when laws will be created to comply with international treaties, multinational companies and trade deals?

The Norway deal includes compliance with certain EU laws too: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway...nion_relations

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Ouch, rickrolled you b'stard :D Note to self: never trust the son of the Devil.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

:shocked: Really, I've done a deal with him, guess I'm not in the clique after all :(

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

At least the decision to accept them or not will be ours to make......not Brussels'

I'm not in favour of a Norway style of relationship wi th the EU either. As Chris pointed out in a post pages back- the Norwegans were sold out to the EU by their polititians and then the people voted to not strengthen their ties to the EU......ending up with a pretty crappy deal.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Well yeah but we're making one of those decisions now, if we stay in the EU. It's not a question of if the UK is sovereign or not, will we will remain a bit of both. It's a question of degrees.

At some point the relationship we'll have will have to be seriously considered. Whenever a drawback to a possible deal is floated it's mentioned that this isn't the type of deal with UK would do. However trade agreements require concessions from either side, as i mentioned before it's not a case of simply two sides agreeing to drop tariffs and moving on. They'll seek to include special provisions, exemptions, regulations and sometimes even laws into them.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The eventual relationship the UK has with the EU is an interesting topic of debate, but I do wish you and others would stop referencing Norway. It's a complete straw man.

Every non-EU country in the EFTA has its own relationship with the EU, the details of which were a matter of negotiation between the EU and the country concerned. Those negotiations hinged on what each country, and the EU, wanted to get out of it. As I said earlier, in Norway's case the deal was struck with the expectation that the country would soon have to enact all the EU's directives anyway. Only a pesky democratic referendum put paid to that.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Gulp. Is the deal for money or women? ;)

The referendum is in desperate need of a conspiracy theory: Initially, 5 cabinet ministers declared for the 'OUT' campaign. Is that what you call a 5th column?

All this 'blue on blue' arguing might be stage-managed with the turncoats conveniently folding at the final fence just before the vote...:D

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Just to labor, if not out right run into the ground, the point about sovereignty: https://next.ft.com/content/26b6a12c...f-1e7744c66818

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It would be interesting to learn how many of those treaties compel our parliament to enact primary legislation handed down to it by directive.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Probably none. No one is saying the EU doesn't impose laws that we have to pass obviously but that it's just one of the many things times that we trade complete 'sovereignty' for something else. Even if we leave the EU this would remain the case just to a lesser extent, although we would then be enacting other laws and regulations when we negotiate new trade deals.

As the article says when it comes down to it we're still sovereign because Parliament could abolish them, including the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Which is why that particular statistic should be seen for what it is - a smokescreen designed to obfuscate the true nature of our membership of the EU. It isn't simply a bilateral treaty. Its depth and complexity puts it in a category all of its own.

In theory, yes, but the architecture of the whole European project is designed, quite deliberately, to make that so difficult that few would actually try.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The UK won't be leaving the EU whatever the result of this referendum. We'll just get another amended deal and told to vote again. Too much at stake, not just the break up of the EU, but break up of the UK. This is what happened in Ireland and Greece, when the public foolishly voted to reject bailout deals; don't think so you plonkers - vote again !. If it's an answer the Govt. doesn't want it'll be rejected, and we'll be told to keep voting until we vote the right way. Democracy is just an illusion we like to have.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

A bit like a trap you might argue...

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The difference in those cases is that Ireland and Greece are both net financial beneficiaries of the European project, so the nature of the debate is not the same. Where you get a vote against an EU treaty, it is based on the perception that they're going to lose out. It is not based on a fundamental scepticism of the project. Overturning the referendum results required sufficient sleight of hand to persuade the voters they weren't actually being shafted after all (even though they were).

This referendum is wholly different. It is not a vote on a technical measure, it is an all-or-nothing, in or out decision, with a clear, legal pathway for the UK government to follow in the event of a vote to leave.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The subject maybe different but the process would be the same. if the UK were to vote No, nothing would happen to begin the UK's exit. The Government have no plans for that because it's not happening whatever (believe me , I work in Govt.) All that would happen is yet another crisis EU summit and another offer to the UK, and another vote. In which time the financial markets would be in enough chaos to make those who voted the wrong way to realise the folly of their ways.

It'll be the end of Cameron whatever, so that's something.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I've done a little government work as well, and I am perfectly well acquainted with the difference between a plan lodged as a document in the GSI and a plan discussed over an instant coffee in a stairwell. I have been party to both. The former can be leaked, the latter can't, because it doesn't exist. This suits the government's agenda perfectly because it prevents the possibility of a PR coup by the leavers.

No plans exist officially, nevertheless those who would have to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in the event of a Leave vote, doubtless already know what they will have to do.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Exactly. That's why we need to get out. If we don't, we are doomed as an independent nation. It's as simple as that.

---------- Post added at 12:24 ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 ----------I

Quote:

t would be interesting to learn how many of those treaties compel our parliament to enact primary legislation handed down to it by directive.

So why on earth were you quoting/posting a 'smokescreen' like that? :confused:

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It's not a smokescreen it's a valid point. I am posting it because I am contesting your notion that this is about if we're a sovereign nation or not. Sovereignty is not a black and white issue and there will remain issues on which we do not have complete sovereignty over if we left the EU.

It's not a question of sovereignty it's a matter of what specifically we want and do not want. Which resources and powers we pool together and which we reserve for ourselves. It's a question of degrees not absolutes.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The argument is indeed a smokescreen.

Nobody who is in any way familiar with the EU's enthusiasm for regulating everything from the colour of fire extinguishers to the pre-packaging of olive oil could seriously and with a straight face suggest that it is in the same league as obligations we sign up to bilaterally with organisations like NATO and the UN.

The sovereignty argument is a powerful one, indeed, it is the only one that transcends crises like the Euro and the migrant situation, which will wax and wane over time. It is no surprise to me that we are beginning to see specious arguments attempting to turn what is actually very straightforward into something that is all shades of grey.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

It's not just NATO and the UN. It's also trade deals. Look at the amount of laws and regulations a trade deal may require. The recent Canada-EU deal imposed a bunch of requirements on Canada:

• requiring Canada to comply with the Trademark Law Treaty (Canada is not a contracting party)
• requiring Canada to accede to the Hague System for the International Registration of Industrial Designs
• creating new legal protections for registered industrial designs including extending the term of protection from the current 10 years to up to 25 years
• requiring Canada to comply with the Patent Law Treaty (Canada has signed but not implemented)
• requiring Canada to establish enhanced protection for data submitted for pharmaceutical patents.

Canada has had to accede to all those requirements (and some more on copyright) just to get a deal with the EU. They're mostly boring copyright provisions but one the less they are there on the request of the EU and not their sovereign Parliament. The North American Free Trade agreement has imposed a bunch of regulations as well. The coming Trans-Pacific partnership will allow corporations to challenge the state irrespective of the laws they've passed (although the exact circumstances a bit unclear to me): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-...ion_.28ISDS.29

Then we have Norway. They don't have a trade deal granted but they've had to take EU laws they can't control and even freedom of movement in order to get a deal.

How do you know that Olives and Fire extinguishers won't find themselves subject to regulation under any EU-UK trade deal? Trade deals are far more than just the abolish of tariffs which are rarely the main limitation of trade these days anyway.

Because it is all shades of grey as Canada, Norway and countless others can testify too. The Out campaign want to make it straightforward because they want to promise something they're in no position to promise. In the end there will still be many areas of regulation and laws that will be dictated by the trade deals we sign and the organisations to which we belong.

The EU is on a bigger scale but it's not the only example of it. Another one is the european convention on human rights to which, as I understand it, we're not going to be leaving anytime soon. The European Court will still overrule our courts.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

More than two thirds of our GDP is not exported. The point about trade deals is you adhere to the rules of that deal whenever you trade with the other party. Canada's domestic businesses that do not export to the EU are not bound by any of the rules you outlined above. Sadly, British firms that deal only domestically must still adhere to whatever EU rules are in force.

And will you please, please stop producing Norway as evidence. Norway's treaty with the EU was designed to smooth the path to full membership. No serious attempt was made to recognise Norway's status as a non-EU country because those brokering the deal fully expected to take Norway in to the EU in due course. It was a democratic referendum that put paid to that, but sadly due to the high-handedness of their politicians, the Norwegian people are stuck with a deal that is far from brilliant for them. Though it should be noted that for all that, Norwegians still prefer their current status to EU membership.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Well not exactly. That would only be for specific products meeting various standards but issues such as the Copyright changes will be applied as law. Equally many of the Trans-Pacific agreement are applied across the board. These are law changes designed to 'help' various businesses/trades in-between the countries. One example cited on that Wiki article is that any signatory nation to the TPP will have to make the breaking of DRM a criminal offense. You can't isolate them off that easily.

Norway is used because, until all the flaws of their arrangement where pointed out, it was used as an example by some of those advocating for Out. But fine I'll stop using it. The other trade deals, the European Convention and those other organisations still show that sovereignty as Out promises is disingenuous and ignores the reality of how the world works now.

The EU is a further ceding of sovereignty in return for benefits you may or may not think are worth it. Voting to leave or remain is not a black and white choice of being sovereign or not either, just the scale of it.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The same was said of the Swiss when they failed to join based on less than 1% of the referendum vote and they got a significantly better deal than norway as a prelude for membership

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I don't believe anyone of note has ever held up Norway as a template for the UK's arrangement with the EU.

What many people have done is point out that countries like Norway and Switzerland have come to their own arrangements, and that a Norway-like arrangement could be brokered for the UK.

I appreciate it's a subtle difference, but there it is.

---------- Post added at 17:33 ---------- Previous post was at 17:32 ----------

Well that's exactly it - there is no one-size-fits-all arrangement for non-EU members of the EEA. It depends on the unique circumstances in each case.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

The thing that concerns me is both these deals were a prelude to join not leave, leaving will be a nightmare, they won't make the process easy, if nothing else to put others of doing the same and it'll take years to get any sort of deal achieved let alone a good one.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

German cars, French wine and cheese will ensure a deal is quickly made if we exit the EU.

Those two are the leaders of the EU and cannot afford not to trade with us. Trade with them alone is worth billions to their economies.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Yup and given the fact that their economies are suffering, the last thing they'll want to do is make that worse by getting into some tit for tat spat with the UK.

---------- Post added at 10:34 ---------- Previous post was at 10:07 ----------

Interesting to hear that world leaders are predicting a shock to the global economy now. I'm sure it will be a bit of a shock but they can all help to mitigate any such problems by getting off their bums and doing something about it by, for example, facilitating new trade deals to take the place of those which went before.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-35677385

It seems to me that the UK is being 'blackmailed' by people who'd rather we remain subjugated and tethered by EU membership. If they're really interested in the health of the global economy, then they'd do well to take advantage of the UK's exit rather than turning it into a self fulfilling prophecy of doom for reasons best known to themselves. If they're not prepared to do that then what they're wanting effectively is to have their cake and eat it by trying to prevent the UK determining its future.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Markets don't like uncertainty. They will be preparing for exit I imagine, various banks so far have issued guidance to their shareholders of what their plans are regarding the Exit. Those reports by the way do not talk positively of it.

The other side of this is maybe they're not blackmailing us 'for reasons best known to themselves' and instead genuinely think that exit from the EU would not be in their best interests. Remember that as far as politicians and businesses are concerned they simply do not want another thing to contend with.

The same thing happened with the Scottish Referendum. Any company or organisation that said it would not be good for Scotland were accused of blackmail and improperly tying to prevent Scotland from being Independent.

There is some truth to that. It's not really great when companies get involved with politics and in both cases they've been encouraged to go public with their concerns by Westminster. Hell, the Tories got companies to sign a letter warning about Labour winning the election - there wasn't much concern about that then. The more important point is that there is more to this vote than economic concerns.

At the same time though it's not really blackmail to warn of consequences. In the end it turns out that some of the warnings from the Better Together campaign, such as the unrealiablity of oil prices, turned out to be more than just scaremongering.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Which is why I wrote 'blackmailed'. ;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Does that mean you were "lying"? ;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Is it me or is the interval between depressions or credit crunches or shocks to the economy getting shorter, given our ongoing cuts to everything, we're not out of the last one yet, let alone ready for another. Osbourne is going to cop for it if his great economic strategy hasn't worked, lets not forget we've had cuts for getting on ten years now. I'm not sure the public will tolerate never ending cuts forever.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

A factor could be in this referendum that Brexit voters are more motivated to vote than the Remains. I could certainly believe this of our apathetic nation. This is what the Govt. need to be most concerned about.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6898766.html

However all it would mean is another vote and people might be less apathetic a second time when they realise what's at stake.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Seems to me that the demographic most likely to actually turn out and vote are also the most Eurosceptic. So far all my peers are solidly for leaving.

The pollsters may have got it wrong again saying it's neck and neck.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

No it means I couldn't think of a better word to describe the sort of pressure being applied and the apparent unwillingness of said global leaders to concede there are alternatives to the Brexit = Doom scenario. ;)

The scare tactics are on both sides and it does nobody's argument any good. What we should be entitled to is clear, unbiased statistics where that's possible and then it's down to a combination of experience, intuition and gut feeling to decide on whether we feel the EU is capable of the reform that many people believe is required but still can't seem to drive through due to the various competing national interests.

Brexit doesn't have to result in chaos but there's no doubt that could be the result if the powers that be decide to let that happen. They're in charge, they can negotiate new deals if they want to and if we're really saying that's impossible, I reckon that's an admission that the EU is fundamentally flawed.

Over coming months events in Europe are going to play a big part in the outcome. If there's more chaos, bickering and backstabbing in Europe that will serve the out campaign well. If things calm down and take a turn for the better that has to favour those who feel getting out is either totally the wrong thing or that proportion who'd like to get out but feel doing so is simply too big a risk to take.

---------- Post added at 11:37 ---------- Previous post was at 11:27 ----------

Whatever he's done right or wrong, Osborne isn't to blame for what's going on in China which is one of the biggest reasons for the current problems we're facing.

Like it or not, there are far more people wanting their share of the spoils of economic success and the cake is only so big. My feeling is that the public are going to get cuts whether they like it or not and regardless of who's in power. The world has changed massively in the last decade or two and what we're now in are very dangerous waters for which no politician has the charts.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Here's an interesting conundrum: if you voted Tory at the last election, I presume you voted for and support George Osbourne's economic competence and and you agree that he knows what he is doing when it comes to the country's finances. Let's face it, if you don't agree that he knows what he is doing then ... let's not go there ..

So, we agree that George is knowledgeable and competent in running the economy and is trusted to make decisions on the near future economic outlook.

Ok, so why would you not trust him when he says here:

You sort of can't have it both ways: either he is trusted to run the country's economy and you then have to trust him when he says what he says or he isn't trusted on economic matters then in which case why is he Chancellor? ..

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

That, my friend, is what you call a false dilemma.

Nothing is black and white; everything is shades of grey. And a general election isn't fanbois v hat3rz, (or at least it shouldn't be), it's about who is more or less competent than who.

I trust Cameron and Osborne more than I could trust Miliband and Balls. That's not to say I'm a deaf-blind cheerleader for everything the Tory boys say and do.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Of course it's your choice, as long as you make the right choice. Otherwise, fear not, you'll be given another chance to vote the right way ;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Ah I see, you just trusted Miliband and Balls less than Cameron and Osborne. Worrying basis for giving a mandate to re-engineer the economy :)

Anyway, my assertion remains: *if* you trust George to run the economy which I assume a lot of Conservative voters do then by inference, you should trust his judgement on the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Your assertion is still false.

I'm not sure why you think it is problematic to weigh two options against each other, then to choose one over the other without believing your choice to be absolutely perfect. The analogies with everyday life are too numerous to list.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Quite. I'd rather choose the lesser of 2 evils...

If the main parties are wanting to stay in then a general election vote can't realistically be about determining the outcome of a referendum on EU membership, it can only be a choice based on other matters. What I know is that the Tories promised and delivered a referendum which is a damned sight more than Bliar did.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

No one is saying we won't get new trade deals. It's the length of time they take and the conditions they will apply. People seem to think that trade deal is simply both countries agreeing not to apply tariffs to trade between those countries but it's a lot more. For example what if the EU don't want financial services to be covered in any trade deal? Maybe Paris and Frankfurt fancy improving their banking sector.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Forget the election, my point is that if you trust George to run the country then you should trust his judgement on the economic disadvantages on Brexit.

But hey, if you don't trust George's economic judgement then there is not a problem ;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

I don't think they are that rational, paranoia and ego are the emotions that run the EU, besides I don't think there is a rush to do the deal you've got a 2 year period of negotiations where things carry on pretty much the same according to article 50 of the Lisbon treaty iirc that is iirc of course

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Well as I pointed out, if all parties want it to happen promptly in the common interest it will. If they don't well it'll be worse for everyone whether that's between us and the EU or anywhere else. We don't need to negotiate major deal with every EU member either, we can happily concentrate on those with which we're doing the most business and where there's most scope.

As for financial services - anyone who thinks staying in the EU is in any way a guarantee of London's security is living in cloud cuckoo land. Paris and Frankfurt will only seek to undermine the City and if we remain in we'll be able to do nothing about it. If we're outside, the City will be able to set its own rules and be as competitive and responsive to market trends as it wants.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
 

Personally, I only voted for this shower 'cos
A) I distrusted Labour even more
B) This lot promised us a referendum, labour didn't