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-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Osem 16-04-2012 17:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I think we're increasingly seeing that targets are a moveable feast...

Alan Fry 17-04-2012 16:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35414503)
The cost of borrowing for Spain has jumped above 6%, raising again the prospect of a bailout.

The yield on Spain's 10-year bonds reached 6.1%, ahead of auctions of debt on Tuesday and Thursday that could be increasingly expensive for Spain.

Investors have been worried by data showing Spain's banks are entirely dependent on emergency ECB loans....

....The yield suggests that if Spain wanted to borrow for 10 years today, it would pay more than 6%.

In comparison, the yield on 10-year bonds from Germany, the eurozone's strongest economy, is 1.73%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17725771

How long can this go on I wonder.

This is very unsustainable, it is very likly that they would need to borrow money from the ECB/EU or even have a bailout, Europe needs to be prepaired for it, the same goes for Italy and Hungary

Osem 23-04-2012 16:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Stock markets have fallen after weak manufacturing data and political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands hit investor confidence.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17810759

Seems the markets aren't exactly reassured by Hollande's plans to spend France out of trouble.

martyh 23-04-2012 20:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35418158)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17810759

Seems the markets aren't exactly reassured by Hollande's plans to spend France out of trouble.

so that's why the IMF wanted that extra £10 billion for

Osem 23-04-2012 21:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35418210)
It will be interesting to see what we would have suffered if Labour's policies had been followed. Of course Sarki could still get back in but I don't think that's likely as Le Penn's supporters have a pathalogical loathing of him and will probably stay at home in the next round.

Yes, some people have very short memories and still seem to be oblivious to the perilous state we're in...

---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:43 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35418243)
so that's why the IMF wanted that extra £10 billion for

Ooohhh we are being cynical today... :D

martyh 23-04-2012 21:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35418302)

Ooohhh we are being cynical today... :D


:LOL: Touche

Damien 23-04-2012 23:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35418210)
It will be interesting to see what we would have suffered if Labour's policies had been followed. Of course Sarki could still get back in but I don't think that's likely as Le Penn's supporters have a pathalogical loathing of him and will probably stay at home in the next round.

My understanding of what they proposed were cuts, but lesser cuts, with the idea that we could stimulate the economy by spending. Both the main candidates in this election aren't speaking much about the debt France is in so I don't think either candidate will calm the markets, not that 'the markets' should be able to scare people into how to vote.

Osem 24-04-2012 10:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This article makes interesting reading and shows why the French need to be very cautious about what the markets think about their government's intentions. It may not be nice but that's the reality of being in debt isn't it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17811923

Quote:

The point is that the French government and French economy is disproportionately dependent on the goodwill of overseas investors and banks.

Here are the statistics.

According to IMF figures, 59% of France's government debt is held overseas - which means that well over half of all lending to the French state is not motivated by sentimentality or patriotism in any way.

To put that figure into context, just 24.8% of UK general government debt is provided by foreigners.

Perhaps more relevantly, the French government has to borrow a colossal sum equivalent to 18.2% of GDP this year and 19.5% next year to finance debt that is maturing and the current deficit.

So, to extrapolate from the current ownership pattern of its debt, France needs to retain the goodwill of overseas investors to provide loans equivalent to something like 10% of its GDP this year and a similar amount in 2013.

Again a comparison with the UK may be useful: the UK's financing needs for this year and next are much lower, at 14.8% of GDP and 13.9%, with perhaps no more than 4% of this needing to come from overseas.
Of course, this is no cause for joy here - if/when economies the size of France's get into difficulties anything can happen and that's why I hope the French will ber pragmatic and get on with tackling the problem not exacerbating it.

Osem 24-04-2012 12:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Dutch government falls in budget crisis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17811509

Quote:

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has tendered his government's resignation to Queen Beatrix, paving the way for early elections.

His cabinet was plunged into crisis when Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) quit talks aimed at slicing 16bn euros (£13.1bn) from the budget.
Bitter financial medicine is made all the less palatable by the promise of a pain free quick fix.

danielf 24-04-2012 12:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35418457)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17811509



Bitter financial medicine is made all the less palatable by the promise of a pain free quick fix.

I think this is made into a bit more than it is really. The real issue isn't the cuts. Pretty much everyone (except Wilders) is in agreement that cuts are necessary, and that the 3% norm needs to be adhered to. The real issue is that Wilders, who has propped up the minority government with his populist 'Freedom' party, has decided to pull the plug on the government. I think the cuts are just an excuse. They were in negotiations over the cuts for 7 weeks, and he decided to pull out at the last moment, saying he wouldn't adhere to 'dictates' from Europe, conveniently forgetting that the Netherlands was one of the driving forces in favour of the 3% norm. He seems set to run for the next elections on an anti-Europe rather than anti-Islam ticket, coming off the back of slipping polls and substantial numbers of people leaving his party over the undemocratic way in which it's run. The real issue here is Wilders. Not the cuts.

Osem 24-04-2012 13:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danielf (Post 35418463)
I think this is made into a bit more than it is really. The real issue isn't the cuts. Pretty much everyone (except Wilders) is in agreement that cuts are necessary, and that the 3% norm needs to be adhered to. The real issue is that Wilders, who has propped up the minority government with his populist 'Freedom' party, has decided to pull the plug on the government. I think the cuts are just an excuse. They were in negotiations over the cuts for 7 weeks, and he decided to pull out at the last moment, saying he wouldn't adhere to 'dictates' from Europe, conveniently forgetting that the Netherlands was one of the driving forces in favour of the 3% norm. He seems set to run for the next elections on an anti-Europe rather than anti-Islam ticket, coming off the back of slipping polls and substantial numbers of people leaving his party over the undemocratic way in which it's run. The real issue here is Wilders. Not the cuts.

Let's hope that's true and stability returns.

It seems to me that an increasing number of people throughout Europe will vote for what they want to hear rather than what needs to be done.

danielf 24-04-2012 13:11

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35418470)
Let's hope that's true and stability returns.

It seems to me that an increasing number of people throughout Europe will vote for what they want to hear rather than what needs to be done.

We'll have to see how he does in the next elections. I suspect he won't do too well, but you never know. My impression is that people are getting fed up with him and the undemocratic way he runs his party. Either way, unless he gets over 50% of the vote (highly unlikely, under proportional representation), he won't be back in government. He's proven himself an unreliable partner who has failed to take responsibility and act in the interest of the country. None of the major political parties will want to cooperate with him (ever) again.

Osem 24-04-2012 14:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danielf (Post 35418475)
We'll have to see how he does in the next elections. I suspect he won't do too well, but you never know. My impression is that people are getting fed up with him and the undemocratic way he runs his party. Either way, unless he gets over 50% of the vote (highly unlikely, under proportional representation), he won't be back in government. He's proven himself an unreliable partner who has failed to take responsibility and act in the interest of the country. None of the major political parties will want to cooperate with him (ever) again.

Well it's certainly a risky 'game' for anyone to be playing, not only for the party(ies) involved but for the future of the European economy. At this time we need all serious parties to pull together, face the unpalatable truth and work together to solve the crisis. Sadly, what we're likely to get is the same old political opportunism and point scoring with the consequential risk that vital decisions are avoided, extremists of one sort or another gain popularity and tensions between 'partners' increase.

danielf 24-04-2012 14:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35418496)
Well it's certainly a risky 'game' for anyone to be playing, not only for the party(ies) involved but for the future of the European economy. At this time we need all serious parties to pull together, face the unpalatable truth and work together to solve the crisis. Sadly, what we're likely to get is the same old political opportunism and point scoring with the consequential risk that vital decisions are avoided, extremists of one sort or another gain popularity and tensions between 'partners' increase.

Yes, this is what has angered a lot of people in Holland. It's been an incredible waste of time, and elections now look set for September, which means that, unless all other parties pull together, it'll be difficult to pass new legislation, or reach agreement on the budget.

But, the good thing to come out of it is that Wilders has angered his coalition parties so much by stringing them along and then pulling the plug for reasons know only to himself, that he won't be back in government any time soon ;)

Ignitionnet 25-04-2012 12:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Talking of the EU, bend over and take it. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-payments.html

danielf 26-04-2012 18:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by danielf (Post 35418463)
The real issue here is Wilders. Not the cuts.

Well, well, well. Wilders pulled the plug on the coalition after 7 weeks of talks on cuts, and it takes two days of talks between remaining coalition parties and three centre left parties to reach an agreement on a package of cuts that will bring the deficit below the 3% threshold. Good to see parties working together constructively in the interest of the country, rather than their own electoral gain.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17859968

Quote:

Dutch crisis: Parties 'close to deal' on budget cuts

Five Dutch political parties say they have come to an agreement in principle over budget cuts that led to the collapse of the government this week.

PM Mark Rutte called elections for 12 September after Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) refused to back billions of euros in cuts to the 2013 budget.

But ministers still have to meet an EU deadline for measures to reduce the country's budget deficit to 3% of GDP.
Good piece in yesterday's FT by the way:

Quote:

The fall of the Netherlands' government over the weekend after budget-cut negotiations collapsed has been widely taken as a sign of a gathering revolt against European Union-imposed austerity measures.
In one sense this is on the mark: Geert Wilders, the anti-Muslim eurosceptic politician whose support had given the minority coalition its majority in parliament, pulled out of the talks because he could not have sold his voters on tax hikes and benefit cuts carried out at Brussels' behest.

But anyone expecting the Netherlands to turn towards the anti-austerity prescriptions of neo-Keynesian economists in London and New York has another thing coming. Across the political spectrum, every Dutch party in parliament – and there are 10 of them – agrees on the need for budget cuts and tax hikes to bring down the budget deficit. The disagreements are not over whether to cut, but how much, how soon, and who should pay.

Osem 02-05-2012 22:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes we need more of that sort of thing here. This crisis demands more than the usual point scoring and opportunism and denial so let's hope the agreement reached actually lasts.

In other, bad, Euro-news:

Quote:

Unemployment in the eurozone reached a record high again in March as spending cuts continued to hit the working population. For all 17 nations in the eurozone, the jobless rate rose again to 10.9%, the highest since the euro was formed in 1999, Eurostat said
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17921071

Osem 07-05-2012 10:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well the Greeks don't seem too keen on any more cuts:

Quote:

tough austerity measures, have lost their parliamentary majority, throwing the country into political uncertainty.

Between them, Pasok and New Democracy attracted less than a third of the vote in elections on Sunday.

A radical left coalition (Syriza) came second after New Democracy, and a neo-Nazi party polled almost 7%
:shocked:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370

... and the French electorate have made their views known too.

Quote:

... push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to "growth".

"Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option," ...
Doesn't look like cuts are going to be the 'carte du jour' in France any time soon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17979913

Can't see how any of this is compatible with Merkel's existing plans for the EU. I wonder if the lady is for turning...

Hugh 07-05-2012 10:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Re the Greeks don't seem too keen on any more cuts - their lack of fiscal rectitude, as a populace and as a Government, is why they are in the position they are in at the moment.

Are they hoping the Gods will descend from Olympus to shower their Treasury with gold, or just hoping if they ignore the deficit and its concomitant issues for long enough, it will go away?

Osem 07-05-2012 10:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35424408)
Re the Greeks don't seem too keen on any more cuts - their lack of fiscal rectitude, as a populace and as a Government, is why they are in the position they are in at the moment.

Are they hoping the Gods will descend from Olympus to shower their Treasury with gold, or just hoping if they ignore the deficit and it's concomitant issues for long enough, it will go away?

What worries me is that they're not doing anything that an alarming number of people here wouldn't vote for. People have got rather too used to living on tick and they don't like the taste of reality.

Hugh 07-05-2012 10:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35424417)
What worries me is that they're not doing anything that an alarming number of people here wouldn't vote for. People have got rather too used to living on tick and they don't like the taste of reality.

Yup - the old "it's someone else's problem" viewpoint.

Now, I think we need more infrastructure investment, which will create jobs, but the money doesn't come from the magic money trees.....

Sirius 07-05-2012 11:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35424408)
Re the Greeks don't seem too keen on any more cuts - their lack of fiscal rectitude, as a populace and as a Government, is why they are in the position they are in at the moment.

Are they hoping the Gods will descend from Olympus to shower their Treasury with gold, or just hoping if they ignore the deficit and its concomitant issues for long enough, it will go away?

For a minute there i was thinking you had Ed Balls and the Greeks mixed up :)

mertle 07-05-2012 11:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35424421)
Yup - the old "it's someone else's problem" viewpoint.

Now, I think we need more infrastructure investment, which will create jobs, but the money doesn't come from the magic money trees.....

well if wages was there in first place maybe people would not need credit from government or credit cards. Too much greed in society people at top on way too much wage. Wages at the bottom not high enough to sustain a living in todays living standards.

You got double whammy wages crippled but standard living going up due to these cretins putting money into utilities/oil. Sending money like no tomorrow to tax havens.

House prices rental been artificially been proped high too.

These very rich tanking worlds economy dont know what there end game is.

Ok you say about credit but people not spending now the net result business cant create jobs. No jobs no economy.

The argument commoners should tighten belts this the result tightening belts economy in meltdown.

If those horrible top 1% paid there taxes like they should world would not be in mess. Too many involved in tax avoidance the rest cant be taxed enough.

Look this the common man exercised his voting right in france/greece those money crooks trashing there countries.

Talk about democracy IMF there puppets of austerity on the working man to send us right back to victorian ages.

Both will end up in civil war fear us too in 3 years as no doubt we will get the same atitude senseless atitude.

Austerity never going to work There plenty money for world to work if people was not so bloomin greedy.

Osem 07-05-2012 12:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35424432)
For a minute there i was thinking you had Ed Balls and the Greeks mixed up :)

I can just see the Balls the God of Hot Air descending from Mount Olympus just in time to solve the economic crisis without any pain.... :D

---------- Post added at 11:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35424421)
Yup - the old "it's someone else's problem" viewpoint.

Now, I think we need more infrastructure investment, which will create jobs, but the money doesn't come from the magic money trees.....

... and it can only be 'printed' for so long before the entire 'system' is undermined.

Sirius 07-05-2012 12:53

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35424451)
I can just see the Balls the God of Hot Air descending from Mount Olympus just in time to solve the economic crisis without any pain.... :D

---------- Post added at 11:30 ---------- Previous post was at 10:48 ----------



... and it can only be 'printed' for so long before the entire 'system' is undermined.

Maybe they should use the leaf but even in the HHGTTU that was shown to be problematic

Quote:

Since we decided a few weeks ago to adopt leaves as legal tender, we have, of course all become immensely rich.
Quote:

But, we have also run into a small inflation problem on account of the high level of leaf availability. Which means that I gather the current going rate has something like three major deciduous forests buying one ship’s peanut. So, um, in order to obviate this problem and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on an extensive defoliation campaign, and um, burn down all the forests. I think that’s a sensible move don’t you?
I am sure the EU will have an answer to that. :LOL:

Osem 07-05-2012 13:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I can see a whole lot of extremism brewing as people try to find someone else to blame for all their woes and opportunist politicians jump on the bandwagon. Funny how the Eurocrats always liked to claim that the EU would prevent that sort of thing... :confused:

Osem 07-05-2012 15:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The EU and Germany have stressed Greece must keep to the terms of the two EU/IMF bailouts, after a surge of voter support for anti-austerity parties.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975370

That'll go down well...

Sirius 07-05-2012 15:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35424534)

ve haf vays of making you comply

martyh 07-05-2012 16:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35424534)


"The EU and Germany ......"


I was under the impression that Germany where part of the EU

Osem 08-05-2012 10:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Economies fail, governments fall and markets are in turmoil yet have any of the architects of the Euro straightjacket disaster really been called to account for getting it so wrong? Have they even really acknowledged that anything is wrong with their grand scheme? :confused:

nomadking 08-05-2012 10:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Regardless of whether they are inside or outside of the eurozone, if governments borrow ridiculous amounts, their country will end up in trouble.

martyh 08-05-2012 10:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35424763)
Economies fail, governments fall and markets are in turmoil yet have any of the architects of the Euro straightjacket disaster really been called to account for getting it so wrong? Have they even really acknowledged that anything is wrong with their grand scheme? :confused:



http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1336466431



"whats the problem ,everything is fine ,there is no problem ,don't know what you're talking about,Greece? what's Greece got to do with anything,now stop asking questions i've a bucket of sand to stick my head in "

martyh 08-05-2012 14:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
All this is proving good for the pound though ,so all the summer holiday makers will be going abroad taking their money with them and spending it abroad instead of in this country

Chris 08-05-2012 14:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Yes indeedy - current mid-market rates are 80.5 pence to the Euro, or €1.24 to the pound (tourist rates are not quite as good, reported as €1.20 in the news at 1pm). Still, the Euro has a way to fall before it hits the rate it was at a decade or so ago, when IIRC it was more like €1 = £0.68.

---------- Post added at 13:57 ---------- Previous post was at 13:56 ----------

Addendum ... the 10-year chart at xe.com is interesting:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=GBP&view=10Y

It looks as if the Euro's jump to the 80 pence-plus level coincided with the crash of 2008. Do we have any money market experts to explain why that would be? Was the Euro initially perceived as a safer port in the storm?

Damien 08-05-2012 15:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35424841)
It looks as if the Euro's jump to the 80 pence-plus level coincided with the crash of 2008. Do we have any money market experts to explain why that would be? Was the Euro initially perceived as a safer port in the storm?

Maybe the graph is upside down.

Osem 08-05-2012 15:40

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35424823)
All this is proving good for the pound though ,so all the summer holiday makers will be going abroad taking their money with them and spending it abroad instead of in this country

At least there'll be all those who'll be coming here for the Olympics, Jubillee celebrations etc.

---------- Post added at 14:40 ---------- Previous post was at 14:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35424841)

It looks as if the Euro's jump to the 80 pence-plus level coincided with the crash of 2008. Do we have any money market experts to explain why that would be? Was the Euro initially perceived as a safer port in the storm?

NOT a currency expert (sadly never had enough of it to become one ;) ) but I'm sure it was and I don't think the realities of what was going on in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc. were fully appreciated at that time.

richard s 08-05-2012 15:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What a shame if the Euro was to go. If it does then the USA, China and possibly India will have a strong free hand in the world of economics and trade etc. If Europe fractures back to the dark days of my own little country ideaology (which this countries Tory and UKIPers) would want... fear for the future my friends.

We should be at the forefront of Europe and not always sitting on the bloody fence.

Time to change our name from Great Britain to Little Britain the Empire died years ago.

Osem 08-05-2012 16:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Euro isn't what makes Europe strong - quite the reverse. The 'one size fits all' economic policy it requires is a positive hindrance to competitiveness with the countries you mention. The various nations of the EU don't need to be entirely separate entities or homogenised into a superstate in order to compete with the rest of the world.

The 'Great' in Britain has nothing to do with greatness, superiority or empire.

Chris 08-05-2012 16:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by richard s (Post 35424904)
Time to change our name from Great Britain to Little Britain the Empire died years ago.

'Great' is a geographical term that distinguishes the island from 'little' Britain, more commonly known as Brittany in France. ;)

Traduk 08-05-2012 17:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35424841)
Yes indeedy - current mid-market rates are 80.5 pence to the Euro, or €1.24 to the pound (tourist rates are not quite as good, reported as €1.20 in the news at 1pm). Still, the Euro has a way to fall before it hits the rate it was at a decade or so ago, when IIRC it was more like €1 = £0.68.

---------- Post added at 13:57 ---------- Previous post was at 13:56 ----------

Addendum ... the 10-year chart at xe.com is interesting:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?fr...o=GBP&view=10Y

It looks as if the Euro's jump to the 80 pence-plus level coincided with the crash of 2008. Do we have any money market experts to explain why that would be? Was the Euro initially perceived as a safer port in the storm?

I do not claim expertise because my forte is not currencies.

It would have been more easily understood had you set the cross on the chart to show Sterling against the Euro as most folk's primary interest is how many Euro's do they get to spend when away in Europe.

Whichever way you look at it, sterling fell off a cliff from 2008 onwards against most currency pairs and as I have stated in other threads it has been IMO due to the dilution of Sterling value against international crosses because in our case quantitative easing is comparable to a company issuing huge tranches of new stock. The net consequence is that value of old stock drops proportionately. With stocks the holders get a rights issue which makes up for dilution but with quantitative easing, we the public get a lot poorer if we want to spend in foreign currency.

In the wisdom of our leaders we followed the lead of the USA but without the protection of being holders of the global reserve currency and as a consequence we lost shed loads of value against the Dollar which as it is the currency of energy and commodities makes a huge fat lie of the con trick that global commodity prices are the cause of energy driven inflation. There is truth in the lie but the fact that to bail out the banks, our currency exchange fell 30% against the Dollar is conveniently forgotten because it added a massive percentage to anything purchased in Dollars.

The truth of the matter IMO is that damage has been done, as the charts plainly show, and in the relative valuations of exchange crosses we only get elevated from bad to half way reasonable when the other side of the cross is in serious trouble.

The Eurozone was not allowed to play silly devils with their currency as we did and the Euro strength represented our weakness and had nothing to do with how good they were but more how bad we were\are. When viewing the charts it truly makes one wonder what calamity needs to overwhelm Europe before we again look less bad than them.

As the currency cross is the global measure of the standing of our currency against others in the world use the chart with GBP first and in the lower box look at our rating against the Dollar, Yen and CHF (Swiss Franc). It is hardly any wonder that international money is attracted to London property when the coalition's actions signalled open for business at fire-sale prices, all currencies eagerly accepted.

Chris 08-05-2012 18:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
:tu: interesting stuff, I have had a play about with the graph as you suggest and Sterling did indeed go into something of a tailspin against the Euro, the Dollar and the Swiss Franc in 2008.

Osem 10-05-2012 08:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Troubled Spanish lender Bankia is to be partly nationalised, the central bank has confirmed.

Bankia, which holds 32bn euros (£25.7bn) in distressed property assets and whose boss has resigned, will have a 4.47bn-euro loan by the Spanish bailout fund converted into shares.

The state fund will emerge with a stake in the bank of 45%.

Earlier, Spanish stocks fell by 3% and government bond yields rose above 6%, a level seen as unsustainable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18014077

Who's next?

... and just for those who like to give the impression that 'greedy shareholders' are the root of all evil, overlooking the fact that they can and do lose money:

Quote:

"The partial nationalisation will be a controversial operation, because it will lead to huge losses for many thousands of Spanish investors, who bought shares in Bankia and provided it with loan capital when it was listed on the stock market last year."

Ignitionnet 10-05-2012 17:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I have no sympathy for private investors stupid enough to invest in a Spanish bank in 2011. Most likely they were hoping that the government would step in to absorb their losses if things went wrong as has happened in so many other cases.

In other news, Norway not only continue to look into the future by conserving North Sea revenue to pay for such things as pensions rather than ****ing it away in tax cuts and increased social services spending to bribe the electorate, they're also reducing their exposure to the Eurozone within that sovereign fund.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...KZ01-M3SVJ.DTL

Sirius 10-05-2012 19:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35426030)
I have no sympathy for private investors stupid enough to invest in a Spanish bank in 2011. Most likely they were hoping that the government would step in to absorb their losses if things went wrong as has happened in so many other cases.

In other news, Norway not only continue to look into the future by conserving North Sea revenue to pay for such things as pensions rather than ****ing it away in tax cuts and increased social services spending to bribe the electorate, they're also reducing their exposure to the Eurozone within that sovereign fund.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...KZ01-M3SVJ.DTL

And i bet they are not selling off there gold as cheap as possible. :rolleyes:

Osem 10-05-2012 19:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35426085)
And i bet they are not selling off there gold as cheap as possible. :rolleyes:

Course not. Now who thought that was a good idea again? :confused: :rolleyes:

---------- Post added at 18:58 ---------- Previous post was at 18:45 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35426030)
I have no sympathy for private investors stupid enough to invest in a Spanish bank in 2011.

Nor do I particularly. Shareholding involves risks and the point being made was that being a shareholder isn't the guaranteed and safe route to riches some folks like to make out. Nor is it the sole preserve of the rich, famous and infamous since share ownership (albeit indirect) is a feature of most of our pensions funds.

Ignitionnet 10-05-2012 23:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It's nearly as ridiculous as the so called 'Greek bailout', which giving it its proper name is the German and French banks' bailout. Greece are getting none of that money it's going straight into the hands of banks who greedily threw money at Greece by the billion without doing their due diligence.

Maggy 12-05-2012 10:40

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/12/wo...%2Findex.jsonp

Quote:

With the seismic political upheaval of the elections in France and Greece barely past, Germany’s most important state is already entering the stretch run to its own electoral showdown on Sunday. The task falls to the state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hannelore Kraft, whose skills at political compromise and pragmatic style are reminiscent in many ways of Ms. Merkel’s own.
What are her chances do you think?

Sirius 12-05-2012 10:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35426684)

None i hope.

I want to see the Euro zone go into meltdown so we can start with a fresh mandate based on the original plan of the European market, not this super state plan that the French and Germans envisage and are trying there best to force on everyone.

Dai 12-05-2012 13:19

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35426170)
It's nearly as ridiculous as the so called 'Greek bailout', which giving it its proper name is the German and French banks' bailout. Greece are getting none of that money it's going straight into the hands of banks who greedily threw money at Greece by the billion without doing their due diligence.

It certainly is an interesting situation. The banks throw money at a country known to be financially weak. They get most of the money back by devious ways and means and the EU gets the leverage to put their placemen into key positions. One might almost suspect the whole situation was engineered deliberately.

Hugh 12-05-2012 13:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
What next - the black helicopters?

Sirius 12-05-2012 13:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35426721)
What next - the black helicopters?

If you say so :)

Osem 12-05-2012 13:47

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DaiNasty (Post 35426719)
It certainly is an interesting situation. The banks throw money at a country known to be financially weak. They get most of the money back by devious ways and means and the EU gets the leverage to put their placemen into key positions. One might almost suspect the whole situation was engineered deliberately.

You're not implying that the Eurocrats and their pals seek power by hook or by crook are you?? :confused: :shocked: :rolleyes:

Dai 12-05-2012 14:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35426721)
What next - the black helicopters?

No. They're all busy smuggling opium from Afghanistan.

;)

Osem 12-05-2012 20:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Europe central bankers have been openly expressing views on the possibility of Greece leaving the eurozone as its leaders struggle to form a government.

Germany's top banker said it was up to the Greeks to decide, but if they did not keep to their bailout commitments, they would receive no new aid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18046280

Gloves coming off now.

Chris 12-05-2012 20:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Good, the sooner the better!

Sirius 12-05-2012 21:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35426878)
Good, the sooner the better!

I bet the Germans have a MASTER plan so we need not worry ;)

TheDaddy 12-05-2012 21:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35426881)
I bet the Germans have a MASTER plan so we need not worry ;)

Let's hope someone has a plan because what's happened so far seems pretty clueless to me but then I guess that's could be what they want us to think :Yikes:

nomadking 12-05-2012 22:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
How did the Germans get the Greeks to go on a spending spree, hide excessive government spending, not pay taxes and, pay certain groups(eg railway workers) excessive wages? How did they get the Irish and the Spanish to overdo building projects? That would be a good trick. Nobody forced them into borrowing too much.

Ignitionnet 12-05-2012 22:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35426874)

Love the way that they claim it's the Greeks receiving the aid when it's really the (mostly French and German) banks who lent money to Greece without doing their due diligence who are receiving this money.

This so called bailout isn't going to Greece it's going straight to their creditors, and the cynical *******s within the troika are trying to make out that they are somehow helping the Greeks out with this forced socialisation of bad private sector loans.

nomadking 12-05-2012 22:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The Greeks have already received the money in the form of the original loans. Why should they receive the money again? Everybody would like that sort of loan. Receive the loan money, fritter it away and then get more money on top of the original borrowing.

Chris 12-05-2012 22:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426903)
How did the Germans get the Greeks to go on a spending spree, hide excessive government spending, not pay taxes and, pay certain groups(eg railway workers) excessive wages? How did they get the Irish and the Spanish to overdo building projects? That would be a good trick. Nobody forced them into borrowing too much.

They did it by pressuring the ECB to run monetary policy to suit the German economy rather than the Eurozone as a whole. Places like Greece, Portugal and Ireland have never had access to credit at the sort of rates that entailed - cheap credit leads to a credit boom as surely as day follows night, especially when that cheap credit is cheaper than anything you have had before.

The calamity in these countries may well be a by-product of German demands rather than the intent, but they share a heavy chunk of culpability.

nomadking 12-05-2012 22:46

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If monetary policy had been based on the Eurozone as a whole, it still wouldn't have been set for the worst countries, but more of an average. If it had been set for the worst, why should everybody else suffer because of the worst offenders. Eg Why should people or businesses pay a lot more for mortgages or loans, just because certain other people default on their loans?

It's doesn't matter how cheap or expensive the credit was, they never really considered paying it back. How does cheaper credit stop people paying their taxes?

Ignitionnet 12-05-2012 23:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426921)
The Greeks have already received the money in the form of the original loans. Why should they receive the money again? Everybody would like that sort of loan. Receive the loan money, fritter it away and then get more money on top of the original borrowing.

Per my post they aren't getting more money on top of the original borrowing, it's going to the German, French and other banks who made the bad loans to begin with.

---------- Post added at 22:37 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426932)
It's doesn't matter how cheap or expensive the credit was, they never really considered paying it back.

Well that applies to pretty much every state in the EU. No reason to single the Greeks out in this regard, purely a matter of scale.

If governments were serious about paying debts back they wouldn't have been increasing them during the 'boom' part of the economic cycle.

nomadking 12-05-2012 23:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35426960)
Per my post they aren't getting more money on top of the original borrowing, it's going to the German, French and other banks who made the bad loans to begin with.

Exactly, you're saying that it should go to the Greeks instead. Where else were you saying it should go?

---------- Post added at 22:41 ---------- Previous post was at 22:37 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35426960)
Per my post they aren't getting more money on top of the original borrowing, it's going to the German, French and other banks who made the bad loans to begin with.

---------- Post added at 22:37 ---------- Previous post was at 22:34 ----------



Well that applies to pretty much every state in the EU. No reason to single the Greeks out in this regard, purely a matter of scale.

If governments were serious about paying debts back they wouldn't have been increasing them during the 'boom' part of the economic cycle.

Somebody forgot to tell that to Blair and Brown.

Even if Greece hadn't taken out all of the loans to fund the Socialist polices, they could never pay back even limited borrowing in their 'good times', because their 'good times' are not that special.

Ignitionnet 12-05-2012 23:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426903)
How did the Germans get the Greeks to go on a spending spree, hide excessive government spending, not pay taxes and, pay certain groups(eg railway workers) excessive wages? How did they get the Irish and the Spanish to overdo building projects? That would be a good trick. Nobody forced them into borrowing too much.

No-one forced it but the interest rates the Eurozone shared were not conducive to their economies. In the case of Ireland especially joining the Euro halved their interest rate overnight. When you have growth significantly higher than interest rates it makes debt an extremely good way to go as the debt is outgrown.

The problem is of course when the growth stops.

Again, though, it's all well and good preaching that, doesn't change that there's a very clear balancing act between interest rates and economic growth and interest rates set to help the Germans increase their exports were completely inappropriate for Ireland et al and incentivised getting into serious amounts of debt to fuel further economic growth.

The Euro appears to exist as a political project and, from the economic point of view, a great way to keep German exports cheap. Rather than having the strong deutschmark that their economy merits and under normal circumstances would most definitely receive, strong countries have strong currencies due to demand for them, they get to dilute their currency with the rest of the Eurozone producing a weaker currency and making their exports cheaper.

The Euro broke many standard stability mechanisms for economies and we're now enjoying the end result, just as the Bank of England with that moron Mervyn King broke standard stability mechanisms by running laughably low interest rates during the noughties when a massive asset bubble was building.

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:43 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426964)
Exactly, you're saying that it should go to the Greeks instead. Where else were you saying it should go?

Nope I didn't say anything about where it would be going. They shouldn't be getting a bailout at all, they should be defaulting and the banks who were stupid enough to lend them the money should be having to reconcile it on their balance sheets.

That is, last time I checked, what capitalism is about, taking risks and them paying off or not. I'm unsure why risks taken on sovereign debt when they don't come off should end up getting repackaged and shoved onto taxpayers through other mechanisms.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 35426964)
Somebody forgot to tell that to Blair and Brown.

Even if Greece hadn't taken out all of the loans to fund the Socialist polices, they could never pay back even limited borrowing in their 'good times', because their 'good times' are not that special.

Listening to the coalition's ******** I see. Blair and Brown didn't overspend by nearly as much as the Tories would have people believe.

No-one is excusing Greece but, tell me, if it was so obvious that Greece were taking out loans to fund socialist policies which they didn't have a hope of paying back why were private banks continuing to advance this cash, and why shouldn't they see the full extent of the pain as a result of these stupid loans?

They took a risk, justified it with the higher interest rates, it's not come off. They should pay 100% of the price. That's capitalism, not the corporatism that's practised within Europe where private losses are socialised.

Greece aren't even the worst for this, Ireland's government of the time should've been lined up against a wall and shot for even contemplating taking billions of bad private loans onto the public accounts.

Iceland told the private creditors to deal with it and are growing strongly. Capitalism works, corporatism doesn't.

Maggy 13-05-2012 16:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35426881)
I bet the Germans have a MASTER plan so we need not worry ;)

Don't they need a cunning plan instead?:)

Sirius 13-05-2012 18:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35427206)
Don't they need a cunning plan instead?:)

No way, You know the Germans don't understand humour.

martyh 14-05-2012 10:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Shares in Greek banks have fallen by as much as 7% in early morning trades after talks to form a emergency government in the debt-laden country stalled.

Stocks took fright after political parties in Athens failed to reach a coalition deal and a radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the President for more talks.
http://news.sky.com/home/business/article/16227435


A tad worrying

Osem 16-05-2012 14:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The eurozone was "tearing itself apart" and the UK would not be "unscathed", said Bank governor Sir Mervyn King.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18084700

Well clearly Merv isn't very impressed about all the EU meetings about meetings. Wonder if the Merkel and Hollande chat-show will move the Eurozone supertanker off its current collision course with the financial rocks.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18037223

Chris 16-05-2012 14:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I wish this house of cards would just hurry up and collapse so we can get on with dealing with the fallout.

Osem 16-05-2012 14:55

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Just goes to show how fundamentally flawed the entire concept is when they can't even decide on what to do in a major crisis such as this. Meantime the blind Europhiles have gone rather quiet haven't they....

Chris 16-05-2012 15:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It shows how fundamentally political it was. If the project had been conceived for truly economic reasons it would have been designed very differently and would have had rather fewer members. The fact that the wheels are coming off now, for economic reasons, presents a problem that the politicos and idealists do not want to confront, because the reasons why they created the Euro are the same reasons they want to keep it at all costs (literally, it appears).

Osem 16-05-2012 15:19

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If we're not very careful I fear these people will create the very scenario they set out to avoid - conflict in Europe. The more people who blindly believe this can't happen, the more likely it is to happen IMHO. :erm:

Hom3r 16-05-2012 15:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I something thing we made a mistake in 1939, we should have just stayed at home and protetected out boarders :D

jempalmer 16-05-2012 16:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Protect our borders? We haven't been able to do that since about 1939 :D

Sirius 16-05-2012 19:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35428760)
I wish this house of cards would just hurry up and collapse so we can get on with dealing with the fallout.

Indeed the sooner it goes BANG the better.

Maggy 16-05-2012 20:06

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Interesting!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18085630

Quote:

In Clones, County Monaghan, in the Republic of Ireland, more than 40 businesses are accepting the old notes which were replaced by the euro 10 years ago.
While it is no longer legal tender, notes and coins can still be exchanged at Dublin's Central Bank.
And people in the town are scrabbling behind radiators and down the back of sofas to come up with the old notes.
There are more than 300m euro worth of Irish punts still out there in Ireland.
I can see this spreading if the Eurozone does implode.

martyh 16-05-2012 20:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
just been watching Edd Balls getting a right old slapping from john snow on the ITV news :D

Sirius 16-05-2012 20:26

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35428969)
just been watching Edd Balls getting a right old slapping from john snow on the ITV news :D

Thats not hard to do :)

martyh 16-05-2012 20:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35428972)
Thats not hard to do :)

I know it was just funny seeing his little chubby face going all red when he realized he was out of his depth .John Snow was asking if we should devalue the pound

thenry 16-05-2012 21:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
sorry i cant be bothered to read through this endless Euro crap. has this been posted?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6...e_gdata_player

martyh 16-05-2012 21:12

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by thenry (Post 35428996)
sorry i cant be bothered to read through this endless Euro crap. has this been posted?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6...e_gdata_player


Probably the best rant i have ever heard :clap::clap::clap::clap:

Damien 16-05-2012 21:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Wish he didn't make references towards World War 2.

Osem 16-05-2012 21:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35428982)
I know it was just funny seeing his little chubby face going all red when he realized he was out of his depth .John Snow was asking if we should devalue the pound

Balls talks his name. Long on questions short on answers.

jempalmer 16-05-2012 21:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Balls slapping is a curious mental picture. Sorry mods :D

budwieser 16-05-2012 21:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jempalmer (Post 35429024)
Balls slapping is a curious mental picture. Sorry mods :D

LMFAO! :D:D Nice one jem.:tu:

jempalmer 16-05-2012 21:45

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Really! There's something wrong with you :D

budwieser 16-05-2012 22:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jempalmer (Post 35429029)
Really! There's something wrong with you :D


:D:tu: :LOL:

Maggy 16-05-2012 22:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Cough! Topic please.

jempalmer 16-05-2012 22:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It was briefly funny Maggy, and I did apologise :)

Chris 16-05-2012 23:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I'm getting heartily sick of the BBC's one-sided reporting of this issue. Every night the news at ten repeats the mantra "disaster, disaster, disaster" without any attempt to contrast with the likely effects of the Eurozone stumbling on as it is.

Maggy 16-05-2012 23:08

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well don't you think they can only report what the majority of those they interview are saying..:erm:

Osem 16-05-2012 23:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Maybe they need to stop asking the same people. ;)

Chris 16-05-2012 23:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy J (Post 35429081)
Well don't you think they can only report what the majority of those they interview are saying..:erm:

And you think they're above the temptation to pick and choose who to interview? Where are the likes of Dan Hannan, Nigel Farage or any of the many economists who have long argued that the whole idea of a single currency was abject nonsense?

Anyway, most of the time they're not interviewing people, unless you count Huw Edwards chatting to Peston, Flanders or Robinson across a table in the studio.

Maggy 16-05-2012 23:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Then stop watching the BBC Chris..There is always Sky..or CNN or whatever you can find on Freeview.

Sadly I dare not watch what used to be my standby from the navel watching obsessions of the usual 24 hour news channels.Euronews is no comfort at present.:erm:

jempalmer 16-05-2012 23:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The really worrying aspect of this whole debacle, at least from my point of view, is that regardless of how it's reported and the interviewees, it was an utter disaster from the outset. I just pray that the whole stupidly, ill-conceived and politically driven 'unification' chokes on it's own hubris. Okay, rant over :)

martyh 17-05-2012 10:24

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Secretly i bet there are a few national leaders ,including our own , that would love the Eurozone to collapse because they could then use it to cover up their own inadequacies in running their own domestic financies

jempalmer 17-05-2012 10:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35429172)
Secretly i bet there are a few national leaders ,including our own , that would love the Eurozone to collapse because they could then use it to cover up their own inadequacies in running their own domestic financies

'Every nation state gets a clean slate', we could write a song about that children. Maybe some of the Python team might help out :D

Osem 17-05-2012 13:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Here's the video of Balls getting his slapping for anyone who's interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEPYVcBgW4k

Not many answers there Ed mate....

Miliband's doing the same right now on Sky - lots of criticism of where we are now but no answers and no acknowledgement of the role successive governments have played in that (including 13 years of his crew in power).

They seem to be saying that the UK has no influence in the Eurozone but that Cameron should be exercising some.... :confused: :rolleyes:

martyh 17-05-2012 14:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35429247)
Here's the video of Balls getting his slapping for anyone who's interested:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEPYVcBgW4k

Not many answers there Ed mate....

Miliband's doing the same right now on Sky - lots of criticism of where we are now but no answers and no acknowledgement of the role successive governments have played in that (including 13 years of his crew in power).

They seem to be saying that the UK has no influence in the Eurozone but that Cameron should be exercising some.... :confused: :rolleyes:

They all seem as empty headed as the most vacuous Essex girl that you will ever meet


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