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https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...tudy-suggests/ A full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was just 39% effective at preventing infections and 41% effective at preventing symptomatic infections caused by the Delta Covid-19 variant, according to Israel’s health ministry, down from early estimates of 64% two weeks ago. The figures, based on data from an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, are significantly lower than previous estimates of the vaccine’s efficacy against other variants, which initial clinical trials found to be 95%. The Israel findings also conflict with several other studies assessing the vaccine’s performance against the Delta variant, which indicated only slightly diminished degrees of protection against infection and mild illness (between 80% and 90%), including peer reviewed research from Public Health England published Wednesday. The vaccine still provides very high levels of protection against hospitalization (92%) and severe illness (91%) caused by the Delta variant, the ministry said. In a statement, Pfizer and BioNTech noted that while real-world data from Israel show vaccine efficacy in preventing infection and symptomatic disease to decline six months post-vaccination, “efficacy in preventing serious illnesses remains high.” |
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You could have one who catches it and doesn't transmit and another who can. It depends on the viral load and the immunity response which will be different in everyone. BTW, Carry on cowering. |
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Nothing more, nothing less. |
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Interesting footnote in the above link by BenMcr
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I’m sure further research will be done to see what role the different demographics and dosage intervals might have played here, however to me this looks like tantalising evidence that the extended interval between doses may lead to a marked imporovement in vaccine performance. |
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The notion that the majority of the public, supports “masks” in public spaces is a pile of doggies doo doo .
Three times in last week been to Tesco’s and there was more people not wearing masks, than there was wearing them. |
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Went to Costco Friday (I have executive membership so get in with trade early).
Maybe 70% staff on floor had masks. During the trade/executive period say 80% customers had masks. When opened to general members this dropped to 60% or less and observed some customers grouping. In Waitrose most customers had masks (probably over 90%). I will wear a mask in these situations because I'm asked nicely to and because it's helpful. At church we have areas for those more nervous and wanting to keep more separate and other areas for those wanting to be more free, meet up, etc. We sing and for those that want to hug that's allowed to. Nice to be together after 16 months but from Friday it's isolation for us as wife is going into have op on Monday and the rules say isolation after Covid test. |
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Lockdowns only work if a solution is available but it takes time to implement (eg vaccine distribution). Australia appears to be in no hurry to vaccinate its population. |
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There are some, even today, who think lockdowns will actually get rid of the virus. They don’t. My position on this changed when, to everyone’s astonishment, the scientists actually came up with a vaccine, and that changed everything. So I went along with the lockdown idea for a while, until the immunisation programme was well under way. However, I was of the strong opinion that all measures needed to be relaxed by 1 April, given that all the vulnerable groups had been vaccinated by then and further restrictions would continue to cripple the economy. Even now, people are unwilling to cast aside their masks and want nightclubs shut down again despite falling numbers and the school summer holidays getting underway. Some are still arguing for another lockdown and think there will be a winter Covid crisis despite all common sense dictating that the opposite will happen. ---------- Post added at 13:28 ---------- Previous post was at 13:27 ---------- Quote:
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Agree that Australia needs to vaccinate its population. |
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It's called chains of transmission. |
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OB is absolutely right in his explanation of the early days.
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the belief that the same amount of people would be infected & that we would experience the same levels of hospitalizations & deaths regardless of iwe locked down or not, is at best dumb ignorance and at worst a deliberate attempt to spread misinformation. |
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There was no point, at the outset of the first lockdown, when it was reasonable to assume a decade-long wait for a vaccine, quite regardless of how long any other vaccine in history has taken to design. If you want to know how the Oxford-AsraZeneca vaccine was made and just how it was able to be formulated so quickly, read here: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n86 Or here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55041371 |
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Now let's go to the next stage and examine what happens when the lockdown ends. ---------- Post added at 16:50 ---------- Previous post was at 16:46 ---------- Quote:
Yes, the lockdowns were imposed to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. But where do you get the idea that when the lockdown ends, it doesn't all start up again? Did you not notice the second wave? Or the third... I think the scientists are all agreed that lockdowns delay, rather than prevent transmission. |
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Again - OB is correct.
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And is all very well being wise after the event, but there was no confidence that we'd have an effective vaccine in the foreseeable future. It was a hope, that was all. ---------- Post added at 16:56 ---------- Previous post was at 16:53 ---------- Quote:
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https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=6717 |
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what you're suggesting is that even if you were nearly involved in a car crash it doesn't matter, because you'll be in one eventually. ---------- Post added at 17:26 ---------- Previous post was at 17:25 ---------- Quote:
Shame we didn't have the required personnel to staff them.... |
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Earlier you inferred that decades of research into coronaviruses meant the production of a specific covid-19 vaccine would be a slow process. In fact, that research made it a rapid process - and the rapidity with which a vaccine could be produced was indicated by Oxford and others at a very early stage. Sorry but your argument simply doesn’t hold water. |
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The daily case numbers, right from the start, suffered dips and rises on a 7-day basis due to the way each area subjected its figures.
Then this last week, this happened. An almost perfect descending graph line. |
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Testing numbers seem to be holding up according to the dashboard.
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https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1627332124 |
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Since restrictions were lifted, infections have declined………….
I’m sure there are lots of other underlying reasons, but imagine if it was the other way around…………how that would be reported! |
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You should see the ridiculous email I got today about "returning to the office". Its like they still think its the Jan 2021 2nd wave, and its a deadly nerve toxin that will kill you on contact. :rolleyes: |
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The case numbers dropping seems to be great news but the raw numbers should be treated with a little caution because;
Testing numbers on their own give a useful guide to where things are going but the data can be skewed easily if you don't look deeper into things. The ONS surveys are probably more reliable as they take in to account the population as a whole rather than those who actively get tested alone. I hope the drop in cases is reflected in the overall real positive rate but I am not sure the daily reported case numbers are the clearest indicator |
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I don't think there is a clear indicator of anything regarding Covid-19.
Testing figures include positive, negative, and void results, which IMO just tells you someone is making money from the very large amount of kits used. Positive cases . . . Quote:
Deaths from/with/28days is a figure that's subject to variables around dates, and has always been contentious. Question: If somebody gets a mild Covid infection, or is asymptomatic, do they then have antibodies similar to being vaccinated? At 25k cases a day that could be a lot of needles not needed. :shrug: |
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Can't find the reference as just glanced through the articles but was reading that a fair percentage of those testing positive for CV in hospital likely contracted it in hospital or at least were not attending because of CV symptoms.
The stats are all over the place and there so many variables changing all at once it's a wonder anyone can get much from it other than those who can pick up on "some trend" that backs up their agenda. |
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Patients admitted 922 Patients in hospital 5,238 So on average people are staying in 5.6 days. Quote:
Besides, the cost of testing for antibodies would exceed the cost of vaccinating regardless. And you'd still need to vaccinate all the people who tested negative for antibodies. |
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Seems the Telegraph have the story but that's paywalled. |
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What it does show is that some people in hospital that have Covid didn't attend hospital for Covid. It is possible that a number have contracted Covid after admittance.
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Probably won't bother self isolating either then :D The good news is that potentially all of those 300,000 'pinged' 10 days ago will be back at work tomorrow . . . and those figures should roll on every day now so panic over ;) |
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(Posting the whole article does not comply with "Fair Use") |
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We need to help ensure the rest of the world is vaccinated to prevent more variants emerging.
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I believe that is the plan, Andrew.
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If ONS prevalence surveys have less than 2% of the population having Covid at any given time it’s clear misrepresentation by the Telegraph to imply large numbers of people are going into hospital for non-Covid related reasons then catching Covid.
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Well it ticked a lot of boxes on the bullshit bingo card for me. ;)
Comedy Carl Hengehan, Telegraph, Graham Brady. |
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To be honest I can understand why HMG may be prepared to tolerate over-reporting at this point. I’m sure you’d be at the front of the queue handing out rotten fruit to chuck at them if there was even a whiff of under-reporting in the data. El Gov is well aware that there is going to be a public enquiry after all this and while it might not report until after the 2024 election, it will most likely compile and publish far more solid statistics well before then. It won’t do their electoral prospects any harm at all if the headlines are all about how it was never as bad as it seemed at the time. |
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I think the phrase "never as bad as it seemed" could well be trotted out eventually, but only by those who 'luckily' don't live in large cities and/or areas that had bad outbreaks.
Although there have been deaths and serious illness in my locale, it seems to have given a wide berth to family, friends and acquaintances. In larger more populated areas it has sadly been an absolute nightmare for many. |
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Of course redefining what we count as a covid case at this stage might be beneficial to a Government seeking positive headlines by changing the figures so they cease to be comparable, just as it is to all the Heneghan’s of the world who have sought to downplay the pandemic from the very beginning. Quote:
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I'm sure we're all well aware of the times analytic & statistical 'modelling' has thrown frightening figures at us for infections, serious illness, deaths, a fractured economy, no food on the shelves etc etc.
Quite possibly 'Worst Case Scenario' has played a part in this, which is probably better than speculating on a Best Case Scenario and being hit in the goolies by people moaning they weren't warned. Just my opinion of course :D |
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I think we need to note what has been revealed but should keep reporting as is. This would provide stability in the assessment of trends.
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I wonder whether or not India has got itself conflicted on hard currency arising from vaccine sales and prioritisation of inoculating the Indian population. I would have thought that whatever the UK could contribute would be a drop in the ocean, although it might really be intended for political purposes. Looking at this cynically, Covid might be a nice little earner for India as well as introducing a degree of population control/reduction. |
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I seem to recollect reading that India has recently ramped up it's vaccine production, as well as ordering further millions of doses from elsewhere.
I would imagine that anything the UK produces, after being distributed for use here and to fulfill existing contracts, is probably a drop in the ocean for India. |
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https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-b1892780.html
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Sounds like the stupid (yet correct) result a computer would come up with if tasked to include all regions of France.
c'est la vie |
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Well done Spain and Canada! They hold Silver and Gold medals for percentage of the population fully vaccinated whilst the UK holds a highly-respectable respectable Bronze.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...964291/photo/1 (Based on top 50 countries by population so excludes Israel.) |
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55,185,352 People Fully Vaccinated 26,420,097 % of Population Fully Vaccinated 56.12% United Kingdom Doses Administered 85,017,108 People Fully Vaccinated 37,610,911 % of Population Fully Vaccinated 56.27% Canada Doses Administered 48,176,339 People Fully Vaccinated 21,651,918 % of Population Fully Vaccinated 57.60% Source |
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These are some more worrying vaccination rates though: DRC Flag of Congo - app 0% Haiti - app 0% Uganda - 0.01% Burkina Faso - 0.02% Papua New Guinea - 0.03% Yemen - 0.03% Chad - 0.04% And it goes on! https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/st...52824192290817 |
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What am I misunderstanding? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ UK First dose: 88.4% UK second dose: 71.4% |
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I think it means 88.4% of the UK population have had one dose, and 71.4% have had 2 doses.
although I don't think 37,782,252 people is 71% of the UK population is it? The 46,733,115 figure is about right for 71%. figures eh, I'm only good with the hourglass ones, and it looks like someone screwed up and mixed theirs too ;) |
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Percentage of adults, probably. Given different countries have different policies around vaccinating teenagers, comparing adults is probably more reliable as a comparison point.
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What sort of nonsense is this? Doses as a % of population is meaningless. % of eligible population, i.e. adults, is what matters. |
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I was reading that "ethical vegans" may get an exemption from "compulsory vaccinations" (e.g. possible workplaces) as they can refuse vaccines that possibly, maybe have been tested at some point on animals.
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I think the article (only skimmed) was more that ruling that "Ethical veganism" is a philosophical belief (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50981359) and so "protected" means they could have exemption from the "no jab no job" rules (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-58020875)
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Could be ethical vegans. Sod ‘em. |
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it sod 'em because they are vegans or haven't had a jab ? |
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On the former, it's the vegan evangelists who want me to stop eating meat. |
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Interesting info coming out of the CDC in the USA about the Delta variant.
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Source presentation https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.c...f75165.#page=1 https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1627657992 The Delta variant flourishes in your nose and throat, and if you’re vaccinated, the immune system kicks in and clears the infection when the virus tries to attack the lungs - however, this takes a couple of days, and during that time, you’re shedding viral load to those around you. tl:dr - Vaccines are still working incredibly well, but is possible for the vaccinated to become infected (perhaps asymptomatically) and spread the Delta variant to others - wearing masks helps prevent this. |
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Certainly looks like the time is right to take all of your cash out of Bitcoin and invest in mask production ;)
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^^^^
.this. Vaxs reduce the chance of one being seriously ill/hospitalised, masks reduce the chance of spreading viral load to others. They are complementary, not exclusive. |
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There is a very big difference, especially if state driven. |
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I see the big push now is for pregnant women to get vaccinated, I can see that causing a few upsets.
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