Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
(Post 36116271)
I think, taking and keeping Ukraine, will deplete Russia enough (along with the sancations) that they will take quite a long time time to re-group, possibly decades. So, I think only Ukraine will be taken in this campaign, and that may well be enough for Putin, for his Presidency. It's who comes after him and what ideas they have and in what kind of shape Russia is in, that will be the next concern. Remember Putin is 70, and although 70 is not ancient if it take 10years for Russia to recover he'll be 80 if he makes it........
I think this campaign and annexing Ukraine, will be Putins legacy.
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I think this campaign will be Putin’s legacy. Annexing Ukraine will not be. Even without allowing for the evidence of the past fortnight, the Russian military doesn’t have the capacity to subdue a non-compliant population of 44 million people in a territory the size of Ukraine. Add in the many problems the Russian military clearly has, and the crippling sanctions Russia is under (which will prevent it rearming for years) and it is impossible to see Russia getting much further into the country than it is at present.
The reason Russia is destroying maternity hospitals and working up pretexts for using chemical weapons is because it has realised it cannot win a conventional military campaign in Ukraine. All it has left is a berserker strategy in which it suggests there are no lengths it will not go to in an effort to break Ukrainian morale. Putin hopes thereby to force Ukraine to capitulate.
Given that western military supplies are ramping up and the civilian population (+ foreign legion) is still being mobilised, it is less likely still that Russia can hold Ukraine even if it perpetrates enough outrages to force a surrender. |
