Re: Brexit
 

Every one has the right to change their mind but he did say "what's worse is there was no appetite amongst the public for it until Dave called the referendum"
How can a former UKIP supporter suggest there was no appetite for it until Dave called for a referendum,leaving the EU was UKIP'S sole aim , admittedly they had a smaller share of the vote but they did muster 4 million supporters ,and he was once one of them.

Re: Brexit
 

Are teenage dreams so hard to beat
Everytime she walks down the street
Another girl in the neighbourhood
Wish she was mine, she looks so good

I wanna hold her wanna hold her tight
Get teenage kicks right through the night ................... :p::p:

Re: Brexit
 

I was answering your point about him once being a UKIP voter...

---------- Post added at 21:00 ---------- Previous post was at 20:57 ----------

Or, another Undertones song put it

Re: Brexit
 

LOL :hyper: Nice try Hugh nice try . :spin: :D

Re: Brexit
 

Undertone:Feargal Sharkey :)

Re: Brexit
 

Far from it. A search of the forum you’ll see I’ve laid out the paths to remain. All require perpetual parliamentary impasse and an extension. A general election risks solving that. Unlikely to, but possible.

This vote was always going to go down party lines. It’s Parliament’s next steps that are important. Corbyn’s are interesting because he has to come out for something sooner or later. The Labour Party were never going to solve this crisis on their own.

Re: Brexit
 

Doh, beat me to it.

---------- Post added at 21:11 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ----------

I’ve got a cousin called Kevin.

Re: Brexit
 

So, not Brexit then

Re: Brexit
 

29th March dear :)

Re: Brexit
 

Well we would still be substantially less connected to the EU than before. Not in the full single market, no freedom of movement and no ECJ rulings. TBH Considering the Parliamentary maths and that they cannot get rid of May I am still surprised the ERG didn't back May's deal which had the above and really only the backstop which in theory would go eventually. That way Brexit would be done and once out it's much harder to get back in than it currently would be to stay in.

Any deal now is likely to be closer to the EU than May's deal was.

I think the whole process has made people less willing to compromise on anything. I think if you offered May's deal in the aftermath of the election Brexiters would have taken it no problem.

Re: Brexit
 

Nope

Re: Brexit
 

May to make announcement at 10pm. Will be a Government one so not an election.

99.999999% it's gonna be 'let's talk this out guyz'

Re: Brexit
 

May will make a statement live in Downing Street at 10pm.

Re: Brexit
 

May’s only tactic in the face of difficulties is to wait it out and see what turns up. She’s going to keep waiting and see what turns up, see who blinks first ... and on that, I wouldn’t bet the farm on the EU holding the line until No Deal Day, make no mistake it is now officially squeaky bum time in Dublin. They stand to lose big time if this all goes south.

Re: Brexit
 

Ditto the UK, hence why British business was last night asking the Government to rule out a no-deal.

Re: Brexit
 

May's speech off BBC One and onto the News Channel because of the FA Cup. Nothing gets in the way of our national sport and quite right too!

Also means the BBC have probably been given the nod from No 10 that this isn't a big deal.

Re: Brexit
 

No Deal will certainly pose difficulties in the immediate term, but if it happens, expect to see the Treasury immediately issue an emergency budget with a massive financial stimulus package. We are a rich country with a diverse economy and global trading clout.

Ireland, on the other hand, relies heavily on the U.K. market and the U.K. ‘land bridge’ - I.e. our road network. No Deal will be difficult for us, it will be an absolute catastrophe for them.

Re: Brexit
 

Totally agree.That's why the remainers need to stop flapping and relax .Everything will work out fine in the end :)

Re: Brexit
 

Here we go. Hopefully she brings up Arsenal's management issues. It's a joke.

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May triggered this process on 29 March, 2017, meaning the UK is scheduled to leave at 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.


Every day is a school day as they say :p:

---------- Post added at 22:04 ---------- Previous post was at 22:04 ----------


LOL :D

Re: Brexit
 

Boring

Re: Brexit
 

Oregon? There are better places, if you’re fleeing the country;)

Re: Brexit
 

Govia Thameslink Railway have schedules too. Until circumstances get in the way.

Re: Brexit
 

Not just supported, campaigned for them

Didn't those 4 million votes occur after Dave said there would be a referendum, they weren't getting that in general elections before then and I'm pretty sure I aired my views here multiple times about what a travesty it was they got 1 mp for their number of votes whilst the snp got many more for much fewer

Re: Brexit
 

'' To thine own self be true, and it must follow, as the night the day, thou canst not then be false to any man. '' ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Sorry but Hugh has already debated on your behalf,time to move on.

Re: Brexit
 

Key quote from May’s Downing Street announcement:

“In a historic vote in 2016 the country decided to leave the EU, in 2017, 80% of people voted for parties that stood on manifestos promising to respect that result.”

She seems to be co-opting the 2017 election result as a further reason not to hold a second referendum or to otherwise delay Art.50. As far as she’s concerned, we’re leaving on 29 March.

As Noel Edmonds might day, Deal or No Deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Totally correct Chris :) Never been any doubt ..

Re: Brexit
 

looks like as she talking to other parties a softer Brexit will now be done as all other parties wont allow a no deal brexit

Re: Brexit
 

1. Corbyn won’t talk to her because she won’t take No Deal off the table.
2. Other parties have no power to dictate a new Brexit deal, because there is no agreement in Parliament for anything at all.
3. Government still controls Parliament and can (and will) deny it enough time to pass the primary legislation that would be required to extend or cancel Art.50.

Re: Brexit
 

I think May genuinely believes it's her duty to see out Brexit and respect the referendum so anything short of that would be forced on her by circumstance. I also think she strongly believes no deal is a disaster and a failure on her part.

I really don't know what's going to happen! It comes down to Parliament in the end.

As I said before I think her deal with a customs union or some variant of EEA/EFTA will be what we leave with. I think a referendum is off the cards personally.

Re: Brexit
 

William Hill reckons an extension of Article 50 is the most likely.

William Hill odds for 30/3/19
Article 50 still in place, i.e. extended 1/4
Article 50 revoked 16/1
Left EU with a deal 6/1
Left EU without a deal 6/1
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en...arch+2019.html

Re: Brexit
 

I’m genuinely curious what you’re basing that prediction on. The ERG simply won’t vote for that and Corbyn (whose support would be required) won’t even talk to her.

Whatever she comes back from Brussels with is only going to be the same deal with an infinitesimal improvement on the backstop clause - which will almost certainly still get voted down, unless the mood in the country and the economy had poisoned sufficiently by that point to persuade the rebel Tories and the DUP to get on board.

The chances of a No Deal exit have increased massively tonight.

Re: Brexit
 

Ireland can tap into EU funds and resources. We can't. It will be bad for both of us, especially our farmers and manufacturers. Ireland will gain from more companies relocating there. We won't.

Re: Brexit
 

Corbyn will have his own party politics to worry about if he continues to stall. I am not sure how long this refusal to talk will last for but she might be able to peel off some Labour MPs with such a deal.

I think this is her last act in politics anyway. The Tories can't get rid of her so Parliament is all she has to worry about.

The closer we get to no deal, the more pressure there will be to pass something.

Re: Brexit
 

Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?

The pattern and format of EU financial support for struggling eurozone economies is of course well known. Ask anyone in Greece or Italy exactly how poisoned a chalice it is.

And, even assuming both those things happen, they won’t happen very quickly. If we leave with no deal Dublin is going to be in a flat panic, make no mistake.

Re: Brexit
 

The 29th March brigade could make a killing here, even backing both the deal and no deal option.

Re: Brexit
 

You must understand that those companies can't remain in the UK and still serve EU customers if we leave the EU?
Italy and Greece have economic and political structural issues that even the most ardent Eurosceptic would have difficulty blaming on the EU.
The EU can move quickly if it needs to.

---------- Post added at 22:56 ---------- Previous post was at 22:54 ----------

Agreed. ;)

Re: Brexit
 

I suspect I understand it rather better than you do. ;)

They need a presence within the EU, they don’t need to move their entire operation. The fact is, London is the world centre of the money markets and the case for retaining most operations in the City is overwhelming. Most institutions that have judged they need to have a presence within the EU post-Brexit have already opened satellite offices in Frankfurt or Paris. As a result, a few hundred jobs have shifted out of London, while at the same time general growth and expansion has added more new jobs than have been lost.

Ireland has had success in the past in attracting major corporations like Apple, but they did so using tax incentives that have since been ruled illegal. Without rigging their tax system, they have the language and the time zone in their favour, while against them is the fact that it’s Ireland. If you don’t understand what a disincentive that is, there’s little point trying to elaborate ...

Re: Brexit
 

The situation in Greece was a political choice to squeeze them for living beyond their means, treating taxes as optional and retirement ages in the 50s with generous pensions.

Ireland, on the other hand, wouldn’t be victim of circumstances they created here. I don’t want to sound like Jacob Rees-Mogg here but if the EU don’t act in Ireland’s interest then they could leave the EU if the economics favour all Ireland trade. That said, there’s another increasingly likely way to achieve that goal.

Re: Brexit
 

I've not intended to suggest them moving their entire operations to Ireland. They will set up separate companies there to sell into the EU and the regulators will require compliance functions to be based there alongside the traders.

Re: Brexit
 

In which case, you already understand that the potential headcount loss to the Eurozone is trivial compared to the size of the sector in London, and your previous comments are mischief-making at best ...

Re: Brexit
 

Nothing mischief-making in any of my comments, I assure you. Just stating that the accusation "Yes, how is Dublin’s attempt to steal financial services business from the City coming along?" in my view is wrong as those companies have no choice but to relocate staff to the EU.

Re: Brexit
 

Just like the comments of most Remainers in this thread lol ... Just trying to throw a spanner into the works at best ... Nothing else left for them to do i suppose ;)

Re: Brexit
 

The Government may be showing some pragmatism.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...o-deal-brexit/

Re: Brexit
 

How can the question be wrong?

More’s the point, what do you understand the answer to it to be? How many jobs have relocated from the City to Dublin (and how many more to Frankfurt)? Is the number in any way significant, compared to overall headcount in London?

Re: Brexit
 

Nothing mischief-making in my thread, I assure you.

Re: Brexit
 

Naughty man :juggle: :)

Re: Brexit
 

Easy. The question is a leading question. How can Dublin be stealing financial services from the City of London if people have to leave the City in order to continue to sell to those services into the EU?

Re: Brexit
 

cabinet minsters saying in the I softer Brexit now and Philip Hammond saying to business MPS wont allow a no deal and remember vast majority remain parliament
https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2019/01/14.jpg

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2019/01/15.jpg

Re: Brexit
 

It's initially small in headcount but the threat to the City is by making it gradually less competitive. And a capital outflow of a trillion is no small sum. https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/i...ets/index.html

Despite your assertion that London is the No. 1 financial city in the world, that has recently ceased to be so.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global..._Centres_Index

---------- Post added at 00:24 ---------- Previous post was at 00:06 ----------

I think yesterday was probably the day that a no-deal Brexit died.

Sebastian Payne in the FT says that Theresa May has two choices:
1. Pursues a softer Brexit which includes membership of the Customs Union. This would be acceptable to Parliament but would break the Tories as BoJo, pals, and members would not like the constraints on trade deals it imposes.
2. Prioritises the Conservative party she joined as a teenager and take a stance that harms the country?
She will need to decide by Monday and present her plans to Parliament then.

Re: Brexit
 

Big surprise there . . business leaders (tesco lol ) asking the Government to remove the 'no deal' option. :rolleyes:

Makes you wonder who does run this Country at times.

Just think about who it is that's crippling farmers with their cheap buying terms .... how many times have we heard about milk farmers being squeezed to death by these people.

oh and talking about farmers . . how on earth can they end up poorer with a no deal brexit? They can get back to actually growing stuff and animal management - which in turn leads to more UK companies processing the stuff instead of everything being produced in Europe and being sold here.

Re: Brexit
 

Most tariffs in developed countries are pretty low but historically food is not one of them. One of the aims bring to encourage self-sufficiency in case of war together with vote-winning in rural US and France.
If the UK left on WTO terms, farmers geared towards exporting to the EU would find their markets severely reduced, as tariffs would not make them competitive. If we then did sign a free trade deal with the US or Australia, our small farm size would render a lot of our agriculture as uncompetitive.
No deal does not poll well so no surprise anyone speaking to the Government will ask that it's ruled out. And, much as some left-wing leavers like Jeremy Corbyn may wish, this is not Venezuela. The Government should listen to wealth-creating companies like Tesco but not be afraid to regulate them.

Re: Brexit
 

One rather overlooked issue with Dublin is the actual capacity. It’s not that big. Accommodation, flights, public transportation and so on would be pressing issues if there were any large scale movement there.

Re: Brexit
 

Kind of the point I was making. I worked out of an office in Dublin regularly for a while (in financial services, naturally) it was an absolute flaming nightmare, every single time.

Re: Brexit
 

My other half didn't like it, she absolutely hated Frankfurt to, she came back from there and they offered her an absolute fortune to stay as well.

Re: Brexit
 

I've had to work there a number of times and if there was ever a conference or big sporting/entertainment event the hotels where all booked. Had to stay in a hostel one time as a result.

One of the better airports in terms of layout and stress though.

Re: Brexit
 

I don’t think it’s ever been in any doubt who runs the country. Not “the people”.

Re: Brexit
 

I think stuff to do, quality of the city and so on are important. For all the arguments about infrastructure, time zones, costings e.t.c that must go into these decisions they must also consider where the bosses actually want to be based.

Paris would be a bigger threat to London IMO if their political situation was more stable. It has the capacity, the infrastructure, the things to do and so on.

London and Paris are Europe's 'big' cities. Sitting alongside New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong. I don't think Frankfurt, Dublin or even Rome and Berlin come close.

Re: Brexit
 

Must have changed... when I was at it, you avoided going airside as long as possible because there was bog-all to do once you were through security.

You’re right though, it’s not exactly stressful, but then an empty building rarely is.

---------- Post added at 08:51 ---------- Previous post was at 08:49 ----------

Nipping into town on your lunch break in Dublin is like nipping in to Liverpool. Great in itself, but if you’re used to London and its lifestyle, not so much.

Re: Brexit
 

Last time I went was just under two years ago. Big Duty Free shop, the Chocolate Cafe chain whose name escapes me and places to drink. Drinking counts as something to do. :D

I found that once you got to the airport there was nothing to do unless you went airside. There are two terminals though so maybe we're talking about different ones.

Re: Brexit
 

Question. Why wasn't there any cross party discussion/invites right from the start. Why were all the 'negotiations' undertaken by only conservative appointees? Surely it was within TM's abilities to have gotten such input?

Re: Brexit
 

As is that imbecile Corbyn, you can't rule out "no deal" as that is still our strongest negotiating hand

Re: Brexit
 

No, it’ll be the same place, it’s 10 years since my last trip - plenty of time to build a terminal, even in Dublin.

Re: Brexit
 

Often it's down to the critical mass of businesses in a region. If there is enough local knowledge of an industry, the companies are more likely to invest as they don't need to ship talent in. In my field, pharmaceuticals, Ireland has been hugely proactive at attracting big pharma to Ireland and part of that is education of local people. The Irish government set up the National Institute for Bioprocessing Research and Training to train Irish students and give them the skills companies need. Ireland is now in a place in the pharmaceutical industry where growth is huge due to the depth of the talent pool amongst other things.

IDA Ireland (https://www.idaireland.com/) the development agency for Ireland is very proactive in trying to attract foreign direct investment in Ireland

Re: Brexit
 

Exactly. Seems to be May way or the Highway. The vote over the deal could easily have taken place before Christmas, so what is she playing at?

Re: Brexit
 

Unfortunately it's partly because her own party wouldn't accept it. Still don't now. Norman Lamont was on PM last night warning against any deal that included Labour support to get it through parliament.

So even though I'm not defending her as she hasn't tried till now, you can hardly build cross party discussion and agreement when you can't be confident your own side are on board with that strategy!

The frustrating thing is pretty much no party seems willing to set aside any political advantage and do the right thing for the UK, rather than one that looks good for them :banghead:

Re: Brexit
 

There's are a hardcore of right wing nutters that she needs to jetison to UKIP, where thanks to our voting system they'll become an irrelevance. A new referendum is the way to go, but it might take a little while to get there, when she's demonstrated nothing can be agreed in parliament.

Re: Brexit
 

A valid reason for No "Peoples vote".

Re: Brexit
 

BREAKING: Meaningful vote round 2 on Jan 29th. Source: BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

Re: Brexit
 

I agree. I’d just let Philip Hammond decide.

Re: Brexit
 

mmm because this entire process has had no input from 'the people' whatsoever has it now?

Re: Brexit
 

As predicted, the government has obeyed the letter of the Grieve Amendment and agreed to put its plan B to Parliament within 3 days ... but as the amendment didn’t specify that it needed to be a fully worked solution to be voted on immediately, it won’t be. The government will take a further 8 days before plan B is voted on, *if* there is anything to be voted on at that time.

Leadsom 1, Grieve/Bercow 0. :D

The government has also taken the precaution of declining to introduce anything else to Parliament over the next week that could be amended by mischievous remainers.

The gloves are off.

Re: Brexit
 

They've had their say, now its up to the politicians to make a pigs ear of it as is normally the case.

Re: Brexit
 

So your original post is invalid, thanks for the confirmation.

---------- Post added at 11:55 ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 ----------

She's playing a very high stakes game of poker here. She's either a) incredibly clever or b) incredibly naive.

I'm flipping between the two, one thing though, she's got resilience.

Re: Brexit
 

Good summary from Macron. In essence, voters were offered something impossible by the Leave campaign and the politicians are struggling to implement it as it's impossible.
https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/16/...an-the-british

Re: Brexit
 

Macron has well and truly drunk the EU Kool-Aid. Of course he thinks a prosperous, free European state outside of the EU is impossible.

Except of course for that tiny bit of himself he keeps locked away, which lies awake at night worrying about a prosperous, free European state outside the EU and right on his northern border. The part that won’t stop whispering, “what if?”

Naturally he still hopes passionately, some might say desperately, for Brexit, if it happens at all, to be as soft as it can possibly be. France’s ideal outcome would be for the U.K. to become a rule taker, without the ability to upset the apple cart as we have had a tendency to do ever since we joined (which is why De Gaulle, wisely, was against us joining in the first place).

It has long been French policy that the European Union is a means for France to use German economic power to mould Europe to suit itself. France believes in ever-closer union because it believes it can mould that union to its advantage. A free, prosperous, relatively deregulated economy on its border would give the lie to the claim that deeper European integration is the only path to prosperity and would make the aim of integration much harder to pursue, especially amongst the reluctant eastern states that until now have been able to hide behind British coat tails in tough negotiations. They will now have to step up and speak up for themselves, and a prosperous, free U.K. may just be an incentive to them.

Re: Brexit
 

If the Government don’t progress some of the legislation required to facilitate Brexit by 29th March then extension is inevitable.

Far from a victory for Leadsom this demonstrates just how precarious a position the Government are in with Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

I’m inclined to ignore the President of France, especially with an approval rating persistently sub 30%.

He needs to deal with his own issues, the persistent weekly protests going on and the heavy handed tactics his police appear to be undertaking in.

Re: Brexit
 

. . coming to a town near you - unless of course we do the sensible thing and 'get out of town' ;)

Re: Brexit
 

Europe prepares for no-deal Brexit


French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe said ‘we strongly believe’ Britain will leave with no exit deal.



https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-37721373.html



France is spending 50 million euros (£44 million) to beef up security at airports and the Eurotunnel, hiring hundreds of extra customs officers and issuing emergency decrees to gear up for the possibility that Britain will leave the EU on March 29 without a plan.

Germany fast-tracked a debate on solving bureaucratic problems in case of a no-deal Brexit, and the Netherlands has made a special exception to let British citizens stay in the country temporarily once they no longer enjoy EU residency rights.

A no-deal Brexit would shake up the rest of the continent in ways that many Europeans have not yet fathomed.

Re: Brexit
 

I think we should make clear that every minute a British lorry is delayed at Dover will be replicated, second for second, for an Irish one at Holyhead. The perfidious Irish bear more than their fair share of the blame for this; it is their fear of a free-trading U.K. buying its beef from South America, and their cack-handed attempts to make the border issue so toxic as to force us to agree to stay in the customs union, that has made the deal unsellable in Parliament. Leo Varadkar is the most anti-British Toeseacccchhhhggggghhhhh in decades and he deserves to sweat profusely from now until March.

Re: Brexit
 

There’s a very easy way to maintain a frictionless border with the European Union if we are that worried about it.

Re: Brexit
 

Nuke it :shrug:

Re: Brexit
 

OMG not you aswell ;)

---------- Post added at 17:08 ---------- Previous post was at 17:06 ----------

You mean like forming some sort of Economic Union with them ?

Re: Brexit
 

Sounds like a great idea.

Trouble is, they will then try to turn it into a much bigger beast, the United States of Europe, where they try to dictate your countries laws etc.


( oh ... wait .... :erm: )

Re: Brexit
 

Something like that. We could even make contributions to common infrastructure projects, and something to raise the living standards in “poorer” countries. It’s money in the bank in terms of trade it’ll only come back with all we export to them.

We’re so good they’ll rely on us.

Re: Brexit
 

sounds like empire building.

Re: Brexit
 

The last empire we were involved in invented all that’s good in the world. Principles of fairness, justice, respect. Could be an exciting opportunity.

Re: Brexit
 

Whenever Corbyn is asked why he invited Hamas, Hezbollah, and the IRA to the House of Commons, he says it is "to keep the dialogue open."

Yesterday he refused to go to 10 Downing Street to talk to Theresa May.

Re: Brexit
 

It’s a trap. He can’t win by engaging with her.

The situation will be resolved with May vs Parliament regardless of what he says/does.

Re: Brexit
 

He can't win by forcing an election either as he's unelectable.

Re: Brexit
 

That’s true, but the best position he can hold is to not lose out from the situation. He backs a PV and leave wins it he’s toast. If he backs May he’s potentially toast as well.

Re: Brexit
 

To right Maggy, also why has it taken two years to get a crap deal.

Re: Brexit
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46906046

Ireland, and the EU with it, is about to reap the whirlwind thanks to its ideological obsession with pretending there isn’t an international frontier to their northeast.

It looks like “no deal” *is* the deal, in which case everyone is going to have to unilaterally put in place much of the infrastructure and agreement they would have had to provide anyway. Except this way there’s a chance we might not end up paying for the privilege of leaving their corrupt little club. So all good then.

Re: Brexit
 

Corbyn can deliver a substantial block of votes in Parliament.

---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:15 ----------

Anyway I think we have to wait until Monday now to see what May has planned.

Re: Brexit
 

There is no other deal on the table.

Unless the EU back down on the backstop, and probably the 40 billion too ( unless they guarantee us a free trade deal) nothing changes.

Plan B is no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

Not according to the Chancellor.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&sour...47844056678882

Re: Brexit
 

I think this plan would form the basis of another adjusted plan. I also think that the closer to the deadline the more likely Parliament will find some resolution. Obviously leaving with no deal is a risk still.

Re: Brexit
 

Being questioned by business. I think you’ll find the pertinent word that was used was “could” not “would”