Cable Forum - [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35828424)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?

What utter twaddle and you've swallowed it hook line and sinker. :rolleyes:

That figure assumes a doomsday scenario that will never come to pass.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35828424)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?

What on earth makes you think that is actually going to happen.

I watched that report on the BBC this morning and exactly the same figures where used by the Brexit spokesperson an hour later to "prove" we would be better out of the EU

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35828406)

Well at least our 'fear' is based on what's actually happened over the last few decades and the refusal of the Eurocrats to get to grips with it or change direction. Frankly, given all that, I'm less frightened by the prospect of the UK charting its own course than relying on those whose political dogma, intransigence and Magoo-like vision has steered us here. ;)

I think everyone thinks that their doom scenario is more likely than their opponents doom scenario. The question is if it's fair to invoke scaremongering or not.

I think it's fine. You play the game you've been given and dire warnings do work. We saw that in the general election and the Scottish referendum. It may not be debate we want to see but high minded debate is less effective.

What I do dislike though is one side accusing the other of fear mongering and doing the same themselves. There is plenty of scaremongering from both sides. Doesn't mean that it's all false either.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35828396)

Free trade doesn't require membership of the political union.

'More jobs' requires a fair amount more explanation. I'm not aware of any research that links our membership of the political structures of the EU with more jobs, beyond those dependent on the bureaucracy of course.

'Low prices' - on what? Certainly not on products purchased from outside the customs union, those are more expensive due to the tariffs we're obliged to apply in order to protect uncompetitive European producers.

Freedom of movement is indeed an advantage although of course people can and do work in other countries without being in political union with them.

Obviously we would lose our say in European issues, however they wouldn't for the most part be our issues anymore as we wouldn't have to abide by these European decisions.

Workers' rights gets down to another issue. We're a democracy and if we want those and other rights it's simple, we vote for those who will provide them. If others already voted for try and take them away we ensure that they understand this would be a bad idea for their re-election prospects.

If we regard it as a good thing that the EU can overrule our Parliament on the grounds that you or others may like what they have to say some of the time we may as well not bother with democracy at all. Democracy rarely pleases everyone all the time.

As far as unproven risks go what is very clear is that the EU is warming up to hit us with a series of unpopular measures as soon as the referendum is done. That's no unproven risk; the budget is going up, we're going to be paying more of it, unpopular measures are being held back until after our vote. Even things like the rather laughable concessions Cameron won or the 'tampon tax' change can easily be prevented. Especially the 'tampon tax' change, which it seems is a non-starter beyond scoring political points for Cameron and in turn the remain campaign.

So with those in mind still waiting for that positive case. I'm yet to hear anything that suggests political union is a good idea.

If I may ask you something - where are all the other 'Unions' in the world? How come the 500-ish million of us are the only ones who've enacted a political union? Do we know something the rest of the world doesn't? Looking at how the European and especially Eurozone economy is performing compared to the rest of the world I can't say the economics of our decision are clear.

Watching things like this I can't say it seems to be good for international relations either.

EDIT: On your point on the stock market it's a bubble-icious QE-pumped mess, blown up by corporations borrowing to buy back their own shares and large quantities of corporate and private debt. Pensions and investments are already delivering poor returns due to ZIRP. Out of every period of uncertainty come winners and losers and something of an economic reset may actually be beneficial beyond the immediate term.

Freedom of Movement is a myth as far as we are concerned. We are free to move in the EU, they are NOT free to move in and out of the UK Because we still control who comes in.

---------- Post added at 18:31 ---------- Previous post was at 18:29 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35828426)

What utter twaddle and you've swallowed it hook line and sinker. :rolleyes:

That figure assumes a doomsday scenario that will never come to pass.

Where is the proof this will happen? No one knows what the cost of leaving will be but we sure as hell know the cost of staying in - £375 million per week going to the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35828439)

Freedom of Movement is a myth as far as we are concerned. We are free to move in the EU, they are NOT free to move in and out of the UK Because we still control who comes in.

That's not true - being outside Schengen means we can check their passports, it doesn't mean we can stop them coming in. The rules of free movement very much do apply at our borders, which is part of the problem we now face.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35828424)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?

this will be the "project fear" that bozza was talking about no one is falling for it but you;)

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35828424)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?

This from the same organisation that has produced research such as a claim that each UK household benefits to the tune of 3k per year from the EU, duly exposed as nonsensical here.

This looks like it comes out with that same kind of figure and it's still bovine excreta. We can all take some evidence, add a few assumptions, take on some worst and best case scenarios as we need to and come out with the result we were commissioned to. It doesn't make it any less worthless.

The CBI was wrong on Euro membership, they did this same nonsense then, and there's little evidence they are doing anything besides repeating the same propaganda exercise again. They are a joke.

---------- Post added at 19:08 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35828439)

Freedom of Movement is a myth as far as we are concerned. We are free to move in the EU, they are NOT free to move in and out of the UK Because we still control who comes in.

We are subject to passport checks in the EU, they are subject to passport checks on our borders as we're not in Schengen.

Doesn't change that we're absolutely a part of free movement, and have no special controls over who comes in from the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35828424)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35828430)

Dave was misquoting a 16 year old report the other day stating that 3 million jobs depend on trade with Europe, what he didn't say is in the next paragraph of the report it stated there was no reason to expect to lose any of the jobs as the jobs depended on trade with Europe rather than membership of Europe

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35828441)

That isn't what Cameron said the other day. He said we can refuse whom we like in this country because we don't have Schengen. He also said in the same statement that we can do this because we still control our own borders and have our immigration policy.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35828435)

It clearly isn't all false, the UK has a great deal of experience at the hands of EU and even more experience of going it alone fairly successfully. I don't know of anyone who believes getting out will be a panacea but virtually all of them believe the EU's undeniable obsession with such things as ever closer union, open borders and a single currency makes staying in the really scary option.

If we stay in we're going to be treated like a spoilt child who made yet another fuss, stamped their feet and threatened to leave home, was given the chance to do so but then didn't because they were too scared to go it alone. Our credibility in the EU and the world will not be improved by staying in, quite the reverse I believe. The only way to reform the EU into what it could and should have been is for the UK to get out and for other countries to then seek their own referenda. Drastic action is required to save Europe from the EU.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by techguyone (Post 35828316)

I'm still waiting for some people in favour of staying to speak up and put their reasoning forward so as to offer an alternative pov

I'll pitch in here (sorry it's a bit late) I am an 'inner' for both moral serve serving and technical reasons. On the moral side, it cannot be denied that western Europe has gone through an unprecedented period of peace over the last 60 years. Fostering international co-operation surely must be a good thing both then and now. We are not the same country we were 100 years ago - we do not have an empire any more, enforced by guns. We have to work together in a civilised manner.

The European Union gives a formal framework for co-operation between nations. Issues like workers rights pushed through by the EU can only be a good thing. To say we would have had those anyway relies in our government wanting to preserve those rights. It was only a few days ago our government was proposing cutting welfare to disabled people. Would you trust future governments to keep the rights we have now?

This country is 'European' in outlook, like it or not. We are most like the Scandinavians in terms of how our society is run so why not work together?

From a technical level, I work for an international company that deals with the pharmaceutical industry. The difference between exporting to EU and non-EU countries is clear and that includes countries like Norway and Switzerland by the way. In my personal experience, exporting to non-EU countries takes at least 30 minutes of paperwork above exporting within the EU. In the office I work in, almost every country in the EU is represented so we have language coverage and it's a more interesting vibrant place because of it.

In addition, with the pharmaceutical industry, initiatives like the European Medicines Agency simplify medicines regulation, allowing companies to bring new drugs to market more quickly which drives down costs which, in the end, we will be paying for.

There are arguments saying we could have all of the above through trade agreements outside of the EU but, if that's the case, why leave? We would still have to comply with EU standards but have no influence on how those standards are set up.

Is the EU perfect? No, of course not. Is the UK government perfect, also no. The biggest failing of the EU to promote itself is its openness. The EU publishes pretty much everything it does in the spirit of openness so any proposal is 'out there', regardless on whether those ideas will ever become reality. The European Commission is particularly bad for this. It would be like the UK civil service publishing every idea and proposal.

Phew, a bit of a stream of consciousness there! Most of the reasons why I want to stay in are, to some extent self serving but I think the UK is stronger morally, culturally and financially in the EU

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

I find it very disappointing that you rate the British government - run by British citizens, who have been elected by British citizens - as being lesser than, and in need of supervision by, a commission of largely foreign civil servants and a parliament (also mostly full of foreigners) which, while elected, has very limited ability to hold the commission to account.

If a British government were to reverse workplace legislation (which is unlikely), then it will have done so with the democratic mandate of the British people. And that, ultimately, is the killer reason for voting out. The British people, and their government, do not need supervision by the European Commisson or anyone else.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35828532)

From a technical level, I work for an international company that deals with the pharmaceutical industry. The difference between exporting to EU and non-EU countries is clear and that includes countries like Norway and Switzerland by the way. In my personal experience, exporting to non-EU countries takes at least 30 minutes of paperwork above exporting within the EU.

That bit of info is very informative.So no reams and reams of extra paperwork/red tape only an extra 30 mins of paperwork to deal with.Hardly Armageddon time.

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35828511)

Given the latest situation in Brussels with 3 attacks in an hour does it not make us a bigger target remaining in the EU? At the moment they seem to be leaving the UK alone and concentrating their efforts on Brussels and Mainland EU. Shouldn't we get out for that reason alone?

---------- Post added at 10:37 ---------- Previous post was at 10:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 35828532)

On your first point. There is no evidence that being in the EU has kept the peace for 60 years. There was peace for 20 years on Europe before we joined. This point, though you're entitled to raise it, is a common theme the Inners use.

Your Second Point. This can all be done outside the EU.

Your Third Point is contradictory: How can we be European yet more like Scandinavians? We tried working together for 40 years and it doesn't work unless you are Brussels!

Technical Point of View:

First Point: Depends on the kind of trade agreement we get with the EU.

Second Point: The UK would have it's own body to do this.

Third Point: Do you really believe we have that much influence? Don't forget the last 40 times we have put something forward in the EU it has been rejected 40 times.

Fourth Point: The EU can never be perfect with becoming a United States of Europe. One Currency, one nation. Do you really want to be Governed from Germany financially and Brussels politically?

Correct they are self serving. To hell with what's best for the UK as long as you are al right Jack, eh?

re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian (Post 35828543)

First Point: Depends on the kind of trade agreement we get with the EU.

Second Point: The UK would have it's own body to do this.

He addresses this part though. For companies and industries where the current situation is agreeable is it much of an argument to suggest that we may get the same outside the EU?

This is the question I have of the Tech Industry in London who recruit across Europe and which attracts start-ups from across Europe. What will they do? This is one area where freedom of movement and commerce works well.