Re: Coronavirus
 

:nutter:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Twatter

HERE from weeks ago. :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

13,000 cases. The circuit breaker looms...

Part of the blame is a data issue that means for the next dew days there will be additional results from tests over the last week or so.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sad, but I can see why they're doing it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-h...source=twitter

Re: Coronavirus
 

Are they seriously ill?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Facebook.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It’s not really relevant.

The figures are going in the wrong direction which means inevitably hospitalisations go up, ICU admissions go up and deaths go up. It’s a question of when, not if.

Re: Coronavirus
 

More likely it means cases are heading towards London ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

TBH I don't care what lockdowns happen in my area.

As long as we can bury my mum with the 17 people or so can attend, on October 13th.

It would have been more but some have children with health issues.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Ignore everything else and concentrate on your mum.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We’re still waiting. Deaths remain consistently under 100 since the 28th July.

To reflect the sudden rise in infections deaths would have to start to increase in the next week at the latest.

Infections got to first wave Levels (5000 per day) around 22nd September.

During the first wave we were seeing 1000 deaths per day a week later, when we had got to that point.

Re: Coronavirus
 

However in the first wave we didn't have the testing capacity to test everyone - those with symptoms were advised to stay home. So the 5,000 then isn't comparable to 5,000 now.

The deaths figure will also have been skewed by the care home situation, which shouldn't happen again. So to simply say because we don't see 1,000 tests next week is to compare apples with oranges.

The data is showing more cases, more hospital admissions and more patients on ventilators and in intensive care week on week. To stand by and do nothing, or even worse open up further, has an inevitable outcome. Even the deaths figure won't be comparable as you now have to die within 28 days of a test.

Some data from the Lancet on the timeline:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

Re: Coronavirus
 

Admissions.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1601839720

On ventialtors

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1601839825

Source

Re: Coronavirus
 

Nobody is saying it's at the level it was in April. What I'm saying is the clear trend over the last month is upwards.

While on that scale it doesn't look much, as a percentage growth it's quite significant. If steps aren't taken to stop that growth the outcome is inevitable. It might take a number of weeks to get there, but it's absolutely inevitable.

Given it lags behind cases we can expect to see growth over the next two weeks.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

On every every Metric, admissions, patients in care, patients on ventilators And deaths the numbers are currently less than the first wave by a factor of 10 or more.

Considering the NHS was not “overwhelmed” in the first wave, there is plenty of capacity and no justification for a second national lockdown unless these figures increase considerably.

There isn’t really even a justification for all the current extra local restrictions, as currently all decision making seems to be made on infection rates.

The Lancet article states In which case we should already be seeing large increases now in admissions and ventilation - and were not.

This can only mean:

- this second wave ( I don’t personally think it is a second wave, but I’ll use the term to refer to this time period) is less Dangerous/ more milder strain.

Or

- the COVID tests are inaccurate - as alluded to by several scientists regarding the false positives issue.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, but the trajectory is inevitable without intervention.

A situation where the NHS essentially had to suspend all non-critical care isn't a serious, viable minimum benchmark to adhere to.

Without genuine, accurate case data for the first wave making any such comparisons is pointless.

What is far more likely is that we are intervening earlier rather than later, to avoid an absolutely inevitable outcome. We don't have a reference point in the first wave for when the first wave hit approximately 5,000 cases per day. Possibly some around mid-February.

Imperial College London estimated that the around 1.8 million people had been infected in the UK by 28th March, when Government figures would have indicated 30,000 infections - a significant order of magnitude lower I'm sure you'll agree.

The Government are weighing up a short intervention earlier in the wave versus a longer one later in the wave, however the absence of meaningful data from the first wave makes comparisons meaningless. What we do know is that testing capacity is being stretched, the time taken to get results (and thus identify close contacts) is taking too long. At this point intervention is inevitable unless the Government want to accept uncontrolled growth.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The problem the Government has with 'unless the figures increase' is that they do can do so dramtically with the course of a few days and the measurements to reduce that can take a long time to take effect. Look at the admissions for March/April. By the time we saw the surge it was too late and led to a month or so of very high admissions.

Re: Coronavirus
 

This is key. Lockdown/some degree of intervention is inevitable - all the way through to next Spring/Summer. The aim is to keep interventions short which means they have to be early in each spike.

Late interventions become longer interventions.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Head of UK task force says fewer than half of the UK population will be vaccinated. Also interesting to note a vaccination won't prevent transmission, it will just limit the damage that it causes.

https://www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-...3-43e51355a751

Re: Coronavirus
 

There is an assumption that people will rush to take the vaccination, we discussed this over lunch today and none of my family is willing to put an untested vaccine into their body until it has at least a 5 year safety record behind it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If someone is keeping track of statements that don't age well, add this one to the list.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Anyone else feel that we're not totally on top of the data?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...litch-12090306

Re: Coronavirus
 

Wow, that must mean we will have hundreds of thousands of deaths soon....:shocked:

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don’t see how that follows from what I said.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wouldn't rush to it either. Vaccinate the at risk groups as a priority anyway. The vast majority of the population don't need the vaccine anyway.

Re: Coronavirus
 

More info on those data issues.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-dhp-feeds

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Appranrtly they had the database in Excel. Not sure if that means they had some of interface on top of Excel or where literally just using Excel itself.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If only we could get a track and trace system going.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We have a fine tradition of making a complete hash of anything to do with data in this country.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Which country might that be? ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

England mostly.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What the whatting what?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...el-glitch.html

Glitch, my arse - who in (insert appropriate diety’s here) name uses a million+ line spreadsheet, besides complete amateurs? I spent most of the last 20 years getting home-grown systems off spreadsheets and migrated to ‘proper’ IT systems, because the spreadsheets tend to have no documentation, ownership, or resilience.

This is NOT an IT glitch. It’s using a spreadsheet to do the job of a database. It’s not fit for purpose. It’s trying to hammer a nail in with a roll of sandpaper; the tool doesn’t suit the job.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's more World-leading cut and paste than World-Leading Track and Trace.:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

It would've had to be a spreadsheet rather than a database, simply because people are much more familiar with spreadsheets than databases.

MS Access isn't a standard part of MS Office.

Sounds like the data was originally in a database, but had to be sent out in a more user friendly format.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I would argue MS Access is also not up to the job but Excel certainly isn't.

There are other ways to present data including exporting into spreadsheets from a database. It sounds like here the master version of the data was in Excel and was being appended too via CSV files.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That apparently wasn't the problem. It wasn't a case of more than 1m rows, but more than 64K rows or 1400 cases.:shocked:
Link

Re: Coronavirus
 

Dominic Cummings is particularly keen on filling the civil service with physicists. I can tell you mistakes like that would never happen. Although spelling mistakes and delays may go up.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Usual nonsense. As if he would've had any say in hiring developers for PHE.:rolleyes: They were possibly hired before he came onto the "scene".


Too much hiring on the basis of bits of paper, rather than core underlying ability.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I didn't say he did anything. I am saying what he would have done if he was in charge.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Do we actually know where the issue arose before we start analysing recruitment in the civil service? Various private companies have been involved in the Track and Trace project too.

Re: Coronavirus
 

What really boils my pee are the idiots who cannot wear a mask properly.

Because we all know the Coronavirus will ignore an uncovered nose.

I won't say what I feel about non maskers, other than no valid excuse whatsoever, as I will be banned for life.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Didn't you see, read, and comprehend, my link and quote?
The issue has been identified with PHE turning the perfectly ok text files into a spreadsheet format and using an old Excel file format(2003 or older) to do it.
The dilemma might have been using a format that most people could deal with. In that sense using an older format, might've seemed appropriate.
Link

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well I’m not downloading the app either.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I do enjoy reading resistance to the only way out. It's only prolonging the pain.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well, if you download that app, and then receive a text telling you to self isolate, no other evidence required, just a text.

You are then compelled by law to do as you are told, and you are committing an offence by not obeying that text.

Not the society I expect, or want, to live in.

A society where we are controlled by the government via text, and potentially arrested and charged if we don’t. If that doesn’t scream dystopian at you, I don’t know what would.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The alternative is having thousands of people who may have the virus going around. And that means lockdown. That's not a win in my book.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Trump latest

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates...ws-2020-10-05/

It would help if he ensured that others could get the 5star medical attention that he has recieved.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You could move to North Korea, see how far that gets you. At least you have a choice here.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Definitive word being “may”

If the system was you are sent a text and you are advised to stay at home if you receive it, especially if you think you have symptoms. I would download it.

But because it is now ensconced In law and would be committing and offence by not obeying the text why on earth would I download it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes - 'may' - it's a risk based assessment.

I'd prefer that to being told there are additional restrictions in my area and/or a lockdown - often for greater than 14 days - that bear no reflection on my personal risk based on my own behaviour or sheer bad luck.

I presently do have a similar app on my phone - from another country - due to spending time there recently and deciding it's better to have their app for a further 14 days so I can get notifications based on who I encountered there.

I could meet multiple households in bars, gather in large groups, stay in the pub after 10. It was all quite refreshing. Principally because that country isn't full of idiots who think they know better. So far it has told me I've had one 'low risk' encounter, based on either being for too short a period or at too large a distance. Sounds good to me.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wear one, but only if I'm inside a shop/petrol station etc etc

Re: Coronavirus
 

Well if you don't use the app or provide contact details you will be refused entry.

Plus there is no link to you directly using the app. so if the app tells you to isolate it is up to your conscious if you do what it says.

If you chose to ay stuff you and carry on there is nothing that can be done.

I used it in McDonalds on saturday and the funeral home today.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting issue with Scotland's trace app reading through walls.

---
Many years back I wrote code for a central London hospital and part of the code was to share data with health authorities about patient episode and appointments so to "collect" moneys from them (all "funny" money - we didn't really bill them like that).

Each year the government would issue out details of what data to supply and in what format and each year I would rewrite our reporting software (and maybe some collection in the main patient system) to match the requirement.
In April we would run the old code for the March data plus an optional annual rollup (Apr-Mar). The data would be in a known format (column width) with data items encoded to NHS standards (it was anonymised - only wanted the basics like gender, race, age, diagnosis codes, treatment codes etc). We would also update the patient system to collect any new data.
In May we would now run the new version of the reporting software and send out the new format files to the health authorities and would always get plaintive requests for the old format as they weren't ready yet. We couldn't because we were often now collecting data differently and our coding team was me for much of the time and I had other tasks to get on with.
The point is that what should have happened is that the NHS would tell the labs to provide data in their format and then make it easy to parse into the NHS database.
I'm wondering if the labs are all using their own formats or something and Excel parsing is being used as a quick way to get the data consistent. Much better for the parsing to be done by the labs as the volumes are lower then make it easier just to read into the central database.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As it's based on Bluetooth this won't be unique to Scotland.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Good job it's not based on white tooth,you won't find many of them in Scotland:)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The problem wasn't the individuals labs. It was the bringing together of all the different sets of results and using an older spreadsheet format that caused the problem.

Link

1,400 cases might seem a small number, but I should imagine when you add all the contacts for each case, then the total number of contacts will obviously be a lot bigger.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Taken alongside some comments about the work having been done on a 'legacy system' that was due to be replaced, I wonder whether it was the case that rather choosing to use XLS rather than XLSX, the user actually had no choice, as they were using a computer that was so old it was running a pre-2007 version of Excel.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

I forgot about Vista haha. That and Millennium always slip my mind.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Might even be to do with how they uploaded it to the 'NHS system'. Later versions of Excel require different drivers so it may be whatever software they used to upload the Excel files only supported xls.

It's all very weird. I am still not clear on if there was a Master cell sheet or they were simply loading a csv into a excel and the excel sheet loaded into a database.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...ositive-426799

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't be afraid of Corona Virus (Trump who supposedly had it).... Fake News.

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://storify.com/services/proxy/2...klCxLNE_ft.png
See also https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54435226

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://news.sky.com/story/scientist...rking-12096597

Coming around to my way of thinking, eventually. It is clear the status quo is unsatisfactory

Re: Coronavirus
 

There's always been scientists advocating the wrong approach. They've simply wrote a letter.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The Great Barrington Declaration is an interesting approach - lock down the vulnerable HARD and let everyone else go about their day as an alternative to everyone being locked down a bit. According to this study, that would equate to around 20% of the population being super locked down.

The questions arising from this approach would be;

• Would those who are locked down comply?
• What would be the effects on this population?
• Is there long lasting immunity from COVID?

Re: Coronavirus
 

But are they wrong? Even if immunity seems short term, what is impact of repeated exposure? Will immune systems "learn" and "remember" better? Will subsequent exposures have fewer symptoms or less severe even for those who did have issues on first exposure?

Re: Coronavirus
 

So you're removing a significant amount of demand from the economy. Those working from home will continue to do so.

This isn't the silver bullet they proclaim it to be.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Couple of quick and easy questions for the 'experts' to answer:

1) If you test positive, then self isolate for 14 days before returning to work (without a further test I might add), does this mean you're now clear and can't spread the virus?

2) If, as is being found in quite a few cases, a large number of people (over 100) are mass tested, 80% are found to be positive with 80% of them showing no symptoms (which could be only a cough or sore throat), would it be feasible the test is picking up the 'dead and long gone' virus residue?

3) if it was possible - obviously it isn't - to test the whole UK population (lets call it 65 million) in one day, what percentage do you think would test positive with no symptoms?


answers on a postcard to guesswork.com


can you tell I've had enough of this crap? :mad:

Re: Coronavirus
 

If we don’t do it, we may never know.

Do you stay in the cave and never venture out because you’ve been told there are Monsters out there?

---------- Post added at 10:27 ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 ----------

It’s now 3 weeks since the infection rate jumped from below 1000 per day to above 3000 per day. It is two weeks since it jumped above 5,000 per day.

We’ve been advised that ICU care, if required, usually comes in at 10 days.

The death rate has remained below 100 since 28 July.

The “body bags” as once was purportedly advised to me, are not “piling up”

Re: Coronavirus
 

What do you mean if we don't do it we may never know - evidence for immunity or otherwise will emerge either way. You don't have to risk millions of lives to do that.

Hospitalisations, ICU and deaths are all on an upward trend.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Seeing pictures and video of crowded streets after the 10pm curfew shows that it's not the right way to tackle the spread and is probably counter-productive.

The current surge in cases is primerilly due to the Universities opening and students mixing together despite the six rule.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Does the rule of six applies to students. I though they were in larger bubbles based on their halls of residence/house shares etc.

Re: Coronavirus
 

A quick search reveals:

Appears the rule applies to students as well wherever they are.

---------- Post added at 13:53 ---------- Previous post was at 13:32 ----------

The curfew is killing the hospitality sector. Restaraunts can only get one cover per table with the early closing.

At our local table service means the staff have to get closer to you, especially for payment, even if contactless than service at the bar was achieving.

The remote gizmo they have only works indoors so if you want a pint in the garden, you have to put on a mask, go to an indoor table, wait to be served, then mask up again to walk 3 yards to the door to the garden where you can then take the mask off again. What a fiasco. :rolleyes:

FT Link included for thos who subscribe.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Seems to be the done thing in English politics. Do wrong, say sorry and nothing else happens?

Cummings should have been disciplined to whatever extent the law would have required of the public. As should Boris Johnson's dad. If Cummings had done something on government business (I did read at the time that the reason for going to Durham was for a meeting, although I wonder if that could have been done remotely), then the government should openly admit that.

I doubt the Scottish MPs are much better, but at least when their minister travelled between London and Scotland, her party suspended her. Better than nothing.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sadly that's the strongest the law allows. The only people who can currently remove her from her seat are the electorate.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

There is a process which I fully expect to be followed that ends there. There's a commons investigation that importantly has to not be prejudiced.

Re: Coronavirus
 

We have it easy in the UK compared to Brussels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54445511

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's only in their capital, what are their restrictions in other areas?

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think it's in the article but I just skimmed it. Still in shock about the pubs closing for a month!

Re: Coronavirus
 

The way the Government is handling everything is scandalous.
Put it this way, if people are abding by sopcial distance. Why have Pubs, and football clubs suffering.

There is no science proof that by closing pubs at a certain time, or even football clubs will prevent the covid spreading.

If getting a ticket at a football match - you purchas say ticket One - then ticket five.

Then with pubs you insist that sopcial distance by getting bar to bring to you as a table - like they are doing at holiday camps.

Then why can't they open.

Joker Boris doesn't have a clue on how to work it out.

We have people being laid off in there thousands, theatres wont open to till next year at the latest. Cinemas closing down.

Its about time that Boris sorted this out before the country, gets into a position that there will NOT be anything to work for .

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting article on why herd immunity is a fringe viewpoint.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...inge-viewpoint

Re: Coronavirus
 

If people were social distancing and wearing masks, then the virus should've died out by now.


Then again where is the evidence that not closing pubs early wouldn't make a difference. Not possible because this is all uncharted territory.

Football was initially excluded from restrictions and people complained about that. Scientific evidence said that large outdoor gatherings were low risk.

How are other parts of the world doing? Eg Wales, Scotland, France, Spain, and all the other countries on the "quarantine on return" list?

Re: Coronavirus
 

I propose that anyone who writes such nonsense, and their families, get proactively infected with coronavirus and isolated for 28 days. No medical intervention.

Statistically reduces the chance of onward infection. Strengthens the herd.

Re: Coronavirus
 

:D:D:D

A conducted tour of the White House would achieve this. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...104023047?s=21

Free "Regeneron" for everyone...

Re: Coronavirus
 

Regeneron sounds like a cosmetic snake oil product. Does it make your skin look younger and more plumped up? :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Long on opinion short on science, as everybody is on both sides of the argument.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I bet the CEO of Regeneron was very pleased to hear about this!

---------- Post added at 10:26 ---------- Previous post was at 10:25 ----------

Here's a bit more meat on the bones as to why the herd immunity approach might not work - https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...ed-protection/

Re: Coronavirus
 

That stuff that makes your skin look like varnished leather;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hospitals 10 days from being at a critical level of admissions. - Tory Minister.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Data on deaths due to Covid-19 vs Flu / Pneumonia since the start of the year:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nd31august2020

Re: Coronavirus
 

Unsurprising given the way the figures are going.

Re: Coronavirus
 

If herd immunity isn't going to work what is the solution apart from perpetual lockdown?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Vaccine which creates a herd immunity.