Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562178)

The thing is none of SKY's current customers would probably care one bit if the channels are withdrawn, by hook or by crook, from BT and Virgin. SKY wouldn't care too much either as it would give them the chance to add a significant numbers of new subscribers at record sign up rates.

I seriously think we are about to see a bit of history repeating. In February 2007 Virgin Media launched which some suggested would shake the British pay TV market and become serious competition to SKY. Within weeks all SKY basic channels were withdrawn from the Virgin platform. This is viewed by many as SKY trying to stick the boot into Virgin right at their birth.

Within the next few months it looks like Liberty Global will enter the UK pay TV market by taking over Virgin whilst BT are set to launch a brand new TV service including BT Sports. I can see SKY repeating their "put the boot in at birth" exercise to both BT and Liberty Global but this time with SKY Sports. Just like in 2007 with Virgin, the mudslinging between BT and SKY has started in the press already.

Originally Posted by passingbat (Post 35562190)

All the above is possible.

One thing I noticed when the Liberty takeover was announced, was that the head of Liberty specifically said that they had no intention of going into the Premium content acquisition market.

I think that may have been a message to Sky, that Liberty are leaving Sky's prime money making business alone, but the unsaid, but implied reciprocal requirement from Sky was that they would not try to withhold premium content from VM or that could change. I could be wrong and may have read into that something that wasn't there.

Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562164)

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/media/ne...s-pricing.html

"The ruling potentially means that Sky no longer has to provide Sky Sports 1 and 2 to platforms such as BT Vision and Top Up TV through an Ofcom-regulated price. The satellite broadcaster could also look to recoup its lost revenue from the price cut over the last two years."

"Sky could look to hike up its wholesale prices and make it no longer viable for BT to continue offering Sky Sports 1 and 2 to its customers."

"Sky can, however, refuse to supply if they are unhappy with the offer the platforms propose."

Both BT's and Virgins carriage deals with SKY for SKY Sports expire in the summer. SKY are reportedly hanging back from negotiating with Virgin until they see what deal is agreed between Virgin and BT for BT Sports. If SKY don't like what they see they will make it very difficult for BT and Virgin when negotiating a new carriadge deal for SKY Sports. Sounds very familiar to what has reportedly happened with SKY Atlantic so it looks like SKY will know exactly what they are doing.

There is a real possibility that SKY will be the only place to watch all SKY Sports and BT Sports channels. BT have already confirmed their channels will definitely be on the SKY platform in the summer, just not on a wholesale basis via SKY. So what is the risk for SKY by not having SKY Sports on Virgin and BT? Well at first a drop of viewing figures, a drop in revenue from advertisers and other TV platforms plus a hit in reputation. I suspect however SKY would quickly make up the shortfall. If SKY is the only place where you can get SKY Sports I'd imagine a significant jump in subscribers moving to SKY from other providers. Get these customers on TV, broadband and phone deals and within no time SKY are no longer making a loss.

Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562061)

SKY and BT agreed the deal for SKY Sports 1 & 2 on the 28th June 2010. For what I can gather, it was a 3 year carriage deal.

Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562178)

The thing is none of SKY's current customers would probably care one bit if the channels are withdrawn, by hook or by crook, from BT and Virgin. SKY wouldn't care too much either as it would give them the chance to add a significant numbers of new subscribers at record sign up rates.

I seriously think we are about to see a bit of history repeating. In February 2007 Virgin Media launched which some suggested would shake the British pay TV market and become serious competition to SKY. Within weeks all SKY basic channels were withdrawn from the Virgin platform. This is viewed by many as SKY trying to stick the boot into Virgin right at their birth.

Within the next few months it looks like Liberty Global will enter the UK pay TV market by taking over Virgin whilst BT are set to launch a brand new TV service including BT Sports. I can see SKY repeating their "put the boot in at birth" exercise to both BT and Liberty Global but this time with SKY Sports. Just like in 2007 with Virgin, the mudslinging between BT and SKY has started in the press already.

Originally Posted by passingbat (Post 35562190)

All the above is possible.

One thing I noticed when the Liberty takeover was announced, was that the head of Liberty specifically said that they had no intention of going into the Premium content acquisition market.

I think that may have been a message to Sky, that Liberty are leaving Sky's prime money making business alone, but the unsaid, but implied reciprocal requirement from Sky was that they would not try to withhold premium content from VM or that could change. I could be wrong and may have read into that something that wasn't there.

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562214)

What makes you think that when only a handful of VM customers and BT customers take sky sports anyway?:confused:

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562214)

No, the whoesale forced price is coming to an end. Sky are still required to supply Sky sports. If they massively inflated the price Ofcom would just regulate it again.

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562214)

Where's the basis for these record rates you speak of? Not many bt or Virgin customers take sky sports. The people that are bothered are already with Sky and their tv uptake is stagnating.

Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562254)

You're not offering up any subscription figures for BT or Virgin so it's difficult for me to understand how big a handful really is. I know at the end of the last quarter Virgin reported 831,000 customers subscribe to SKY Premium channels. This of course includes both SKY Sports and SKY Movies. I think a safe bet would be to say anywhere between 400,000 to 500,000 people subscribe to SKY Sports via Virgin, based on the figures published, which is around 12% of all Virgin customers. If BT has a similar take up percentage wise then Virgin and BT could have around 550,000 SKY Sports subscribers in total. If SKY becomes the only place to watch all SKY Sports and BT Sports channels, that's 550,000 potentially unhappy sports fans on rival platforms that SKY can target. Even if 20% only moved to SKY that would be significant.



This article suggests SKY could hike prices to to make it no longer viable for BT to carry the channels. Competition lawyer Daniel Geey makes some interesting points in the article also including: ""Sky can, however, refuse to supply if they are unhappy with the offer the platforms propose."

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/media/ne...s-pricing.html

Virgin only have £3m tv customers on average and only 20% of these take sky sports so if they move to Sky it wouldn't be the massive uptake never seen before that you're saying. A lot of customers can't or don't want Sky.
BT only have £770,000 customers on BT vision full stop the majority don't take Sky sports.

Sky can't just hike the prices up to price BT out of the market, if they are found to be acting against competition laws then they will just be regulated yet again, maybe more so than last time.

In Quarter 2 of 2010/2011 SKY had 10,150,000 TV customers. In Quarter 2 of 2012/2013 SKY had 10,742,000 customers. That's 592,000 customers over 9 Quarters of business meaning on average 65,777 additions each quarter. If SKY is the only place to watch all SKY Sports and BT Sports channels come the summer, with some customers on Virgins XL and VIP package already unhappy about the removal of ESPN, it's a very real possibility that SKy could welcome a volume of new customers that quarter at a rate never seen before.

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562292)

As I said only a small percentage of Virgin customers take sports, anyone who is really bothered about sky sports has Sky.

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562292)

As I said only a small percentage of Virgin customers take sports, anyone who is really bothered about sky sports has Sky.

Originally Posted by tvtimes (Post 35562292)

As I said only a small percentage of Virgin customers take sports, anyone who is really bothered about sky sports has Sky.

Originally Posted by johnasimmons (Post 35562293)

That is not correct - as I live in a block of flats and not allowed to install a dish I have cable and subscribe to all the sports channels

Originally Posted by coulsontom (Post 35562345)

Correct. This isn't true. We used to be with Sky but went to Virgin (with sports) because Sky wanted £250 for a new box.

Now thinking of going back to Sky though due to current situation and likely higher cost with virgin

Originally Posted by johnasimmons (Post 35562293)

That is not correct - as I live in a block of flats and not allowed to install a dish I have cable and subscribe to all the sports channels

Originally Posted by Chad (Post 35562313)

When Virgin launched in February 2007 they had 3.4 million TV customers. Now 6 years later Virgin have 3.8 million TV customers, a growth of 400,000 customers. If around 400,000 to 500,000 Virgin customers do have SKY Sports clearly they are in the minority. If Virgin drops ESPN out of the XL package, and doesn’t replace it with BT Sports, sports fans with XL or VIP will be either disappointed or unhappy. If Virgin then aren’t able to agree a new carriage deal for SKY Sports 3 & 4 and SKY Sports 1 & 2 in HD, it’s not unthinkable that sports fans will be livid. The potential for 400,000 to 500,000 angry customers leaving to go to another provider would have a massive impact on Virgins business. It could wipe-out 6 years worth of growth.

Originally Posted by Henkesghost (Post 35562347)

Same for me, thats why I'd left Sky. ESPN free kept Virgin lower than Sky without any Sky initial offers but as ESPN is going to cease broadcasting looks like Sky may now be better value with a better TV service. Will keep my phone and b/band with Virgin though.