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The south coast of Pembrokeshire is hard to beat IMO. Tenby is a great seaside town and the quieter spots further up the coast, such as Manorbier, are beautiful.
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I was going to say the south, been to Tenby (and Manorbier) a couple of times. |
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Just coming to the end of my first week of being involved in the surge testing in Leeds. Quite an eye opener!
Our team is concentrating on Headingley and Hyde Park which are predominantly student areas and while I'm no expert on what would constitute an epidemic I'd say that the areas are in the middle of a major outbreak. For example, we've spoken to the residents of around 500 of the 1500 doors we've knocked on. Of the 500, maybe 30 properties have had positive tests in the last week (since the first England game??). These are the people feeling ill enough to get tested. I would imagine there are many more who didn't answer the door (because they felt too ill??) or don't realise they're infected. The morning after the last England game, the amount of sofas in front gardens, burnt out BBQs and beer cans and wine bottles was amazing so I'd not be surprised if the next major spreading event was the Germany game! One old chap was telling one of my team that on the Sunday evening after the first England game the police came to break up a gathering of 120 students! It's also the end of term and many students are packing up to go home so it may be on it's way to your neck of the woods in the coming days! I spoke to a mother yesterday who was packing her daughters stuff in the car to head off down to the south coast. The daughter admitted they'd done a bit of partying in the last week or so and admitted she might need to get a PCR test. Her mother looked pretty shocked and angry! However, on a positive note the number of students who said they've got vaccines booked was encouraging. |
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Good luck with the testing, you should be pretty busy. :D |
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Masks back in Israel so anyone dreaming of them being removed here is probably going to be disappointed, even for the uber-privileged Rishi Sunak, although he can work from home I suppose.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-57594155 |
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50% of recent deaths have been double jabbed to
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In Israel, a very large proportion of the population has been double jabbed, so you would expect there to be a much larger proportion of deaths amongst those who are fully vaccinated. These are the ones for whom the vaccine simply didn’t “take”, or were otherwise immune compromised or seriously ill.
Beware of percentages in these situations - by themselves they can obscure as easily as illuminate. |
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There's loads of stunning coastline on the west coast of Scotland.
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I am less confident that we will have a sensible process in place for trips abroad, but there is no reason I can see why fully vaccinated people should be subject to quarantine. ---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:48 ---------- Quote:
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Yeah - Oban. It pissed down for two days in August.
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I don't believe we have surpassed Israel in the percentage of the population "fully" vaccinated even before you factor in the greater efficacy of their vaccine mix compared to ours. If I were you I'd be more concerned about the EU banning UK travellers given the prevalence of the delta variant here and - perhaps - even Boris bottling July 19. The original freedom day got canned as Boris thought 6,000 infections a day is too high. If R stays at 1.4 as some predict it is we could be looking at 50,000 a day by July 19. ---------- Post added at 20:15 ---------- Previous post was at 20:15 ---------- Quote:
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You can't get a good Schnitzel or Backhändl in Oban.
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I admire people who decide to holiday in the UK. But most wouldn't do it a second time! I am banking on Boris exempting double-jabbed people from quarantine. That would show a bit of mettle. |
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We’ve holidayed in the same Scottish seaside town every summer for the past 20 years. ;)
Sure, the weather’s always changeable but there’s always something else to do if it’s not nice enough to sit on the beach. I prefer it that way anyway - the last overseas beach/hotel pool holiday I had (when I was 18, so a very long time ago now) was really, really boring. |
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As far as I'm aware you can still catch and spread the virus even if double jabbed . . . or am I wrong :shrug: |
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I've just returned from a short break at Beaulieu; will be holidaying in Weymouth during August; prolly go to Deal for Chrimbo. Tomorrow going to our Rutland house.
But can't wait to be able to return to Vienna for a September few days when possible. |
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Therefore, I would advise Old Boy to have a patrotic holiday in his back pocket in case he can't take his regular von der Leyen-approved break. ;) |
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Presumably they've all been vaccinated though. |
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Surely, both statements cannot be right. |
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Boris is doing a good job, not perfect but I don't think anyone else would do much better. Different focus may benefit different sectors and that cost of others and some would have got us even more in hock. On top of Covid he has other issues to sort out like NI/EU, trade etc. |
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It’s clear by now that the question HMG has always been interested in is at what level can covid be allowed to circulate through the population without overwhelming the health service. A bald figure representing number of infections tells us nothing about the likelihood of unlocking occurring on 19 July because we no longer know what the correlation is between infections, hospitalisation and death. The reason we no longer know this is because of the vaccination programme. The whole point of the delay is to gather that data, not to drive infection numbers down. Had the intention been to reduce infections by population control measures, we would have been back in lockdown by now.
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It's not just about hospitalisations. The more the virus is allowed to swirl around, even with asymptomatic cases, the more chance of a new variant emerging that one way or another, could be more serious. On the other hand a new variant might be more innocuous. Do we want to take the risk?
Vaccinations in general don't give protection immediately after infection. It takes a few days for the immune system to get going. The idea is that it is fewer days than the natural course of immunity, and hopefully avoid reaching the infectious stage. |
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Everything Chris says makes sense. But there would be a correlation on a flatter scale between infections and hospitalisations I simply don't trust the death figures as being Covid meaningful.
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My son is in Australia (Canberra). The population is very largely unvaccinated because their government has (wrongly imo) disengaged from the AZ vaccine because they say risk of death from the vaccine is higher than from Covid. They're back-tracking on their AZ production facility.
So, the population must wait another year for Pfizer to come through. My son has been vaccinated with AZ through the British High Commission. Lest you think that Australia is brisk and efficient, the current Delta wave got through the sort of loophole you might have expected the risk assessors to have caught. Like who touches the airline crew's baggage on the way to quarantine? |
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Sorry, nomadking, I don’t buy it. The public will not accept never-ending restrictions on their freedoms and it simply isn’t necessary any more. We’ve lived with germs and viruses since humans first arrived on this planet. It’s a bit ridiculous to start worrying about them now and hide ourselves away in fright. We will become a nation of risk-averse hermits if we carry on like this! ---------- Post added at 13:34 ---------- Previous post was at 13:31 ---------- Quote:
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I’m not sure how we become a nation of hermits. Some (many?) are completely unaffected by the small number of remaining restrictions. |
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I worry that both governments have assumed that by keeping the numbers of cases low courtesy of lockdowns and shunning the urgency of getting the vaccinations done, they are exposing their respective populations to major outbreaks this winter which could have been avoided. This is not over. |
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You do know our winter is their summer? Who knows it could go away by itself. |
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The economy is also a huge worry. I know the PM is looking to invest considerable sums to eventually generate income, but that is a huge task and requires many billions to be expended before this can even begin to start turning around. If this goes pear-shaped, our public services will go downhill rapidly because there will be no money to fund them. I really cannot understand why some people are still arguing for restrictions to continue after 19 July when we have a successful vaccination programme and it is already clear that hospitalisations have been greatly reduced since the first two waves. It suits some, of course, who would rather be on furlough than working. ---------- Post added at 13:50 ---------- Previous post was at 13:49 ---------- Quote:
My point is that now we have a vaccine, we can avoid the total number of deaths that would otherwise have occurred. The vaccine has changed everything. |
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I can’t understand why, despite being consistently wrong throughout the pandemic, you continue to push this economy over public health agenda. Quote:
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Nevertheless the evidence won’t support no restrictions from July 19, and if anything as other countries close their borders to UK citizens it’ll have a greater economic impact for us to not manage case numbers. |
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Live Covid-19 updates as Sajid Javid makes his first statement in Commons as Health Secretary
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...javid-20920905 |
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Main thrust was pretty much content-free.
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It’s almost as if comforting lies are more likely to get them through the by election.
Plus once we hit 45,000 cases a day it’ll be an easier sell. |
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Then, there will be no doubt that there is no longer a link between cases and serious illness. And we can stop worrying about case numbers and get on with normality with no need for masks or distancing. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ |
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Yes - what Pierre says. It'll be somewhat like recording a flu season - except that nobody gets tested for flu.
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Here’s hoping that Long COVID isn’t serious for a reasonable percentage, for all those people hoping for more infections…
https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/20...field-and-hull |
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A smaller proportion of a much larger number is still problematic from an NHS perspective if you are into 300,000 a week getting infected. Let alone the economic impact of them all self isolating, along with their close contacts, and the problems for employers given their health and safety responsibilities to their staff against that kind of backdrop. The work from home brigade will still be on Teams in that scenario. |
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I have not been ‘consistently wrong’ but you have consistently tried to twist everything to suit your sense of superiority. In that, you have certainly excelled - congrats for that. |
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Of course it is appropriate to vaccinate. You seem to suggest that someone has indicated the opposite. I am pretty confident that restrictions will be ended from 19 July and the new Health Secretary has confirmed that today. We will still have restrictions on overseas travel and the track and trace will still be in place, but all the mask wearing and social distancing nonsense will be at an end, allowing businesses to operate normally. ---------- Post added at 20:47 ---------- Previous post was at 20:44 ---------- Quote:
It’s so easy being Mr Hindsight. |
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It’s not puerile to point out that for some of the “we could do no better” brigade the positive outcomes New Zealand and Australia have seen in both health and economic terms are a challenge. So for one, or both, to fail would be vindication for an argument that has been wrong to date. ---------- Post added at 20:49 ---------- Previous post was at 20:47 ---------- Quote:
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If we use the JCVI logic of not vaccinating our own children then vaccinating countries that are broadly open with very few cases is poor utilisation of a vaccine in limited supply. However it’s the one straw you can clutch to in order to criticise a country that has delivered a textbook, and dare I say not reliant on British exceptionalism, response to a SARS outbreak, kept huge swathes of their economy open and delivered an excellent public health response. |
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"By Tuesday, I felt I was coming down with a summer cold - sneezing, sore throat, slight headache." "Two days after my first symptoms, I began to feel seriously ill. I had a high temperature, muscle ache, the shakes, a bad headache and flu-like cold symptoms. " https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550 |
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https://www.theguardian.com/educatio...ils-in-england
Meanwhile our Great Barrington government peddle this nonsense. If we end up in a winter lockdown make no mistake it was 100% avoidable. |
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The Australian PM must have read my post. https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tralian-adults Quote:
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Impressive!
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Chris Whitty out partying with a couple of mates
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/14...-latest-cmo-vn |
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I'm afraid it all went downhill about a years ago for some reason.. There's an increasing amount of thick, racist, violent people about who see any issue as an excuse these days for a 'bit of fun'. We need to stand back and look at what we've become and where it's going. |
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Bad parenting and lack of proper discipline, is the common denominator here. I hope you weren’t suggesting or hinting that “leaving the EU”, was the problem, be it as you have flogged that scapegoat to death. :rolleyes:
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Being either IN or OUT of the EU was, and never will be, the problem.
The problem is the liberal civil rights 'crowd' that insist in their belief that people who do wrong (aah bless them) shouldn't face any punishment that may hurt their feelings :rolleyes: |
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Back on topic, please.
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As a nation or society becomes more secular it loses any logical imperative to behave morally. (This is not to say that secular people aren't moral, or that "religious" people do behave morally).
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Morality (but that might need definition) is certainly instilled through normal education. The Ten Commandments are widely taught and adhered to save for the usual two. Yet the population has largely turned secular. |
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It's some drunk guys who wanted a selfie with the guy off TV. It's stupid of them to accost someone like that, and intimidating, but I don't think they intended to hurt him. At one point you can ever hear them say 'Please, Sir' in the hope of a picture with him. It drunken, loutish, behaviour but let's not read that much into it other than Chris Witty probably does need some Government provided protection because had these been anti-vaxxers it could have been worse.
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In truth it is a heck of a lot more complex than that. Getting at what God considers “moral” is difficult enough. Understanding how to apply that in the world is quite something else. Ethicists and philosophers, even Christian ones, have struggled with, and disagreed over this for centuries. I agree that any moral system requires an anchor point, or a set of reasons *why* people should act in accordance with it. For most cultures, in most of history, some concept or other of deity usually provides that. In secularised Western Europe, vestigial attachment to those same ideas usually still lies behind it even though secularists prefer to deny this and construct alternative justifications for their moral systems. But it is still incorrect to equate secularism with lack of morality. It is possible to construct a basic, consequentialist ethical system without reference to any deity at all (not that I’d recommend doing so). |
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Did a deity create Covid? But the design behind life seems to me to be too clever to have been mere evolution. So, to my mind, something must have designed all this - but is now dead. |
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Philosophical question for you though: if a finite intelligence created life on Earth, what created that finite intelligence? “Deity” solves this problem by postulating a whole other class of existence, one that is fundamentally different to, and greater than, the created universe. In this other existence there is no beginning or ending - no birth and no death, which are attributes of the creation, not the creator. Sorry we’re veering right off topic …. to try to bring it back, Chrisianity’s concept of the fall attributes imbalance in the entire ecosystem to humanity’s moral corruption. Thus in some way covid (and all viruses) are a consequence of human failing. Not the existence of viruses necessarily, but their tendency to damage or destroy host organisms rather than live harmoniously with them. |
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Probably going a bit off-topic there though. |
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To repeat ...
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The Torygraph has come up with an analysis that more or less mirrors what many of us think here. In a nutshell, the ratio of infections to tests as between now and December 2020 is 1/5. Quote:
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