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Re: Netflix/Streaming Services
Sales tax receipts goes to the governments, not Netflix, how is that relevant here? Of course prices are different and its not straight forward. I already mentioned last week the new Indian mobile tier for a few dollars. Some tiers may be around $10, some under and some over, but I was roughly using your £8.99 as a base figure.
On debts, the banks recently gave Netflix another $2billion, so I don't see plug pulling anytime soon. On your last point, agree. The tech giants have massive amounts of cash and can blow anyone out of the water if they so choose, but I would see Netflix probably getting acquired by one of them in the future, rather than them trying to compete head on with Netflix. I actually think that all the "old" media cos will get acquired by the big tech cos in the end because essentially they're all operating in the same space now. |
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Netflix getting acquired and restructured into a bigger player is essentially accepting my point that the current business model is fatally flawed. A profitable company could generate tax efficiencies from the debt, and the customer base is its only real asset. |
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But as you know full well, they're in their growth stage. Remember how long it took Rupert Murdoch to make actual money out of Sky after he launched it.
You seem to be almost wondering why Netflix aren't paying dividends like "proper" companies and that is because they're busy growing first. They have a massive first mover advantage here, the same as Sky did. If you're expecting dividends from Netflix, try again in about 5-7 years, if you're lucky. I do not accept at all that their business model is fatally flawed. 151m customers and billions in annual revenues suggest otherwise. On deep pockets, fatally flawed, business models etc, the best example is Amazon. It took them a long time to generate a profit because they were grabbing as much market share as they could and that is exactly what Netflix is doing now. |
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They’re in their growth stage but it’s already stalling in North America.
I’ve no interest in whether Netflix pay dividends to shareholders or otherwise. It’s easy to pluck a successful company out the air and predict that’s what Netflix are doing. Just as easily I could pluck a name from the .com boom in the 90s that was valued at billions and no longer exist. Their position in the market is thus far untested. It’s very much an assumption that it can stave off any competition as and when it arrives. All at a time it is experiencing slower growth, having to shell out more on rights and implement price rises for what many consider to be a low value add on to a primary subscription. ---------- Post added at 23:39 ---------- Previous post was at 23:22 ---------- Quote:
Makes sense now. |
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The North American figures were expected to stall, as I'm sure you know.
Their position in the market is number one and for a while and maybe again, they became the world's largest media company. I don't see how that is untested. What test would they have to pass in your view? They compete everyday with other media companies for eyeballs, Disney et all still run tv channels and subscription services. And I'm not assuming that the other streamers may not hurt them, they may when they're up and running, but that's not happening yet or anytime soon. Slower growth? Are you going by the last quarter's results here?? They're American growth is slowing and that was expected, but intentionally they're still motoring along. Yes they pay more for rights, as does everyone else and yes, they do implement prices rises from time to time, just like "proper" companies do. 151 million customers pay for Netflix, whether they consider a low value add on or not, they still pay. ---------- Post added at 23:45 ---------- Previous post was at 23:40 ---------- Quote:
I also own Disney, did own Sky, own Discovery and others. As I'm so powerful to move share prices, I'll talk about all of them now.:D What exactly is your beef with Netflix? |
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The figures weren’t expected to stall, hence the share price dip and statement on the matter. It’s historical revisionism to claim this is all trundling along as expected.
These will be the same paying customers, and eyeballs, that get dismissed when I point out they both pay for and watch linear television. As you know low value add ons are more at risk to competition and, in times of recession, changes in consumer habits. I don’t see how you can find much of what I say controversial when just five months ago you said similar. Quote:
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I don't watch ads, life is too short, FF is such a wonderful thing |
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I’m not sure what planet the streaming fundamentalists are on. I say this as a subscriber to three streaming services! (I’d forgot about one). |
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In theory that might happen, however the apathy of customers in general will mean most will add a streamer to get content they particularly want and then fail to cancel when that ends - reviewing when they get notification of a price rise. I cannot see Amazon adding many long term customers on the back of 2 midweek rounds of PL in December (except those detailed in previous sentence). I suspect many will take the free month and cancel as I will do. ---------- Post added at 10:50 ---------- Previous post was at 10:47 ---------- Quote:
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It seems to me that Amazon is being very cautious with the Premiership football rights. They are clearly testing the waters with a view to taking a big decision in the future. If they do take the plunge and make a serious bid against Sky and BT next time around, football fans will not be able to take their free month trial and cancel. They will sign up at least for the full season, and they will have been drawn in. It will be very interesting to see their pricing policy if that happens. |
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So many people on this site with business degrees, Are many of you CEO,s on multinationals be any chance ?
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I, too, still watch scheduled TV, but via recordings, and all three of my recorders are pretty full. But I know that will change over the next few years. The number of shows I am keen on seeing now has fallen and it continues to decline. I hardly recorded anything this week and it is becoming more difficult to find good programmes. However, the day will come when everything is on the streamers and I will no longer need my recorders. That day cannot come soon enough for me. |
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Ah right Mrs Old Boy won’t let you. :) |
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You seem to ignore the point of the rights auction. If Sky/BT can do it anyone can appears to be your attitude. There comes a point where someone thinks they can and everyone else thinks it’s not worth the risk - the winning bid. The Sky/BT bids last time. That’s the cold, hard, reality Old Boy. |
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As for your 'anyone can do it' jibe, it is pretty obvious that any company wanting to bid for the Premiership rights needs big trouser pockets. Amazon's are way bigger the Sky's and BT's, so I really don't understand this mental block of yours which compels you to continue denying that this could happen. It could, and I think that is obvious to most people. There is no barrier to prevent it, apart from your own dark imagination. Let's agree to disagree. I can't bear to keep going over these same old arguments. I am never going to convince you, and you are certainly not going to convince me. Only a few short years before we see the truth of the matter. |
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I have never said anything of the sort it was just suggested he could try a free trial seeing has he has never tried a streaming service before, that was it. |
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While true to say that Amazon hasn't 'blown Sky out of the water' as you put it on football rights, the fact is that they have chosen not to do so up until now. There are many reasons for that, including the technical difficulties with streaming such as latency and broadband coverage, but as these difficulties get resolved, the idea becomes more attractive. The fact that they haven't done it yet doesn't mean they never will, that is a really pathetic argument. Everything has to start somewhere. |
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Let's pretend we're the strategists at Sky. JF: Right Den it's that time again, how much are we putting in for the Premier League rights? Den: Less than last time. (both laugh excessively) JF: Okay stop clowning around. Get a coffee and come back and we'll discuss it seriously. Den (returns with two coffees): Right, less than last time I wasn't joking. JF: But all I read is these digital marketing blogs telling me streaming is the future. Scudamore is saying Amazon are in. Den: Not happening mate. JF: Seriously? Den: Nah, BT is the only credible bidder, and we've got our cushy wholesale deal so they're not going to push. JF: Virgin? Den: Nah, cheapest way they get the Prem is through BT, and us. Wholesale deal is due next year so they'll not rock the boat. JF: Okay we will need to run this past the boss. The Boss: What? I don't pay you two to come up with rubbish ideas. Give me something credible. JF: This is credible. The Boss: Not even inflation? Not even 1% a year more? Den: Not a penny more. Less. Scenario continues until someone at the very top signs of essentially betting the business model of the whole UK and Ireland operation on there being no Amazon, no Facebook, no Google, no Apple in the auction. |
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If it's any consolation I wouldn't trust you to budget for the week. We'd run out of money by the Wednesday because you didn't realise we didn't have infinite income and that the limited income had to correspond to outgoings.
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*also been a Senior Programme Manager for a multi-national Telecomms Company. iT Director at a University, and a Head of Programmes for a multi-national Utilities company, and my Masters is in "Computing in Business’ - does that count? |
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Nor did Netflix. I’m sure they’re fully aware of the challenges facing them as well and will be monitoring the situation quarter on quarter. You yourself seem to see the challenges as well, was it not you that suggested in future platforms like Virgin will become ‘content aggregators’ and that will generate increased revenue for the streamers? Not that I see how that as wildly different from the present - only the delivery method you seem to be contending will change. Quote:
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It would be a smash hit on the comedy channel.....;) |
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“10+ years” on from 2015 (ie sometime after 2025) is a freaking great big difference to around 2035, as you’ve been postulating more recently. I know you’ll never admit it but the arguments presented here, and the realities in the TV marketplace, have forced you to shift your goalposts significantly. Which is no shame, by the way, it’s a perfectly reasonable outcome of any discussion. |
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So, when do you think significant changes will arrive, Chris?
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I have always said that I believe that scheduled channels will be no more by 2035. The evidence of that is there on my past posts. ---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:19 ---------- Quote:
Sky Atlantic is the only forecast that didn't come about that I can think of, old chap. |
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You also predicted the demise of Linear TV but alas that prediction seems to be akin to changing the goalposts when it suits your convenient narrow agenda. Then you yourself have predicted that you would abandon being a Pay TV customer to switching totally to subscribing to streaming subscriptions but alas that seems to have tanked lately as its obvious that someone else is wearing the trousers in your household.;) |
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Indeed, as far as I can tell there’s never been more linear channels on Virgin than there are today. Now if we follow that obvious direction of travel ;)
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Really? Do you know what these channels are? Thx. |
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I don’t watch much TV - I couldn’t name every series on Netflix or Amazon Prime either. :) |
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https://www.virginmedia.com/virgin-t...-channel-guide |
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To be fair most of it is bollocks and passed over when channel flicking.
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But that’s the thing, it’s financially viable to transmit hundreds of channels of all kinds of bollocks 24/7. Probably most of it has a tiny number of viewers. That’ll continue to be the case and why linear services longer than many expect.
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A small amount of excellent stuff, a lot of old stuff. ---------- Post added at 20:20 ---------- Previous post was at 20:19 ---------- Quote:
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l suppose your idea of a timescale is how long is a piece of string...;)
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Someone set me a reminder to come back here in 2022.
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I think you are confusing everyone by repeating the same points with revised dates.
If broadband isn't solved for ten years from 2015 why will the Premiership in 2022 be any different from 2019? |
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Of particular interest is your response to the point made about the 10-yearly BBC charter review process which, by its nature, would tend to prolong the presence of linear TV channels in decade-long blocks of time. You engaged with that point but somehow managed not to say anything about being misunderstood with regards to predicting the end of linear broadcast in 10 years from 2015. |
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Things will look a lot different by 2025, but the process won't be complete by then. I would think in 20 years, the number of linear channels will have diminished to a handful, if that. There simply won't be enough people watching in this way to sustain the advertising. It is there for you to see in black and white. As I said, the quote you brought to our attention above was clearly referring to broadband, and even then, a short time after that, I clarified that full broadband coverage may take a little longer. However, I have stuck to the 2035 prediction I made regarding linear channels and that has not varied. I did not say anything about that 'contradiction' because there wasn't one. The 10 years referred to broadband coverage, which I said would make things look rather different. |
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How will people consume news - you know the popcorn out stuff - disaster coverage of tsunamis, missing teenagers, earthquakes, volcanos and explosions in white countries other than on a 24/7 linear channel?
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It's still a linear broadcast, it's the method of delivery that's different.
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OB ... that’s the point at which it became clear you were changing your mind. It wasn’t you who brought broadband infrastructure into the thread. Fast broadband availability was the first and most obvious objection to your original claim. It was put to you and you took it on board, even though it now pains you to admit it.
Post 128, which you were answering in post 129, asked “I thought it was 10?” - because up to that point that was your argument and everyone participating at the time understood that to be the case. Your wee body-swerve in post 129 was a neat attempt to claim you had always believed what in fact you had recently been persuaded of by others, but nobody bought it then, and it’s clear from recent comments in this thread that nobody’s buying it now. You’re caught bang to rights. Just admit it (I know you won’t). |
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Whatever you believe, I would not have been so daft as to say the pay tv channels will more or less all be closed down in 10 years. If that's the way you and some others read it, I accept that, but it was not what I meant. I have said 20 years consistently since 2015 and you will not find any post from me that says differently. ---------- Post added at 15:26 ---------- Previous post was at 15:22 ---------- Quote:
We are essentially debating the ease of access to VOD material - v - scheduled tv channels. |
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There's no need to be cheeky because Chris is mopping the floor with your incoherent argument.
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As for incoherent, now that's cheeky. |
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https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...4&postcount=44 Now they didn't bid, the rights value fell (as predicted by Sky) but it'll all be different in 2022, with no explanation why? |
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All of this has already been explained, jfman. Clearly, there's not much news around today. :rolleyes: |
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The rules of CF:
Old Boy has only ever said things that later come true. If it didn’t come true, he never said it, even if he did. ;) |
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You just need to read the posts. And read the words as they are. I hope that's not too much to ask. |
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If something hasn’t happened (and indeed, might never happen!) my main question would be what factors would have to change and when to make it happen. |
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Yes, the streamers have 20 matches (all games from 2 midweek rounds in December) - minor package(s) no-one bid high enough for in the 1st round of bidding. I have never seen a figure for how much Amazon paid, nor do I expect to as they pep rob ably signed a NDA to get them so cheaply. |
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Now TV HD and the addition of Now TV to the BT platform have been suspended indefinitely.
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Now TV HD delay: https://www.rxtvlog.com/2019/08/now-...st-trials.html |
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I think we're looking at two separate things there, both are delays but suspended indefinitely makes it sound like Now may not come to BT.
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Haven't Sky said by the end of the year ?
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It is interesting to note that we won't be getting our UHD and additional on demand programming from Sky until next year either. I think the two are connected. |
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People are speculating that it might be because the new owners want to roll Now TV into Sky X. I hope not.
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Media Boy Sources has reveal "Nowtv on BT this is still on schedule for end of the year."
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