Re: The future of television
 

that might be for the better though. If the quality stuff is whittled out and selected to go on streaming services you can pay less (e.g. £10/month) for a streaming service with content that you know you want to watch rather than paying £50/month for Sky where you don't watch 99.9% of the stuff.

Re: The future of television
 

It's not whittled out by quality, it's whittled out by who owns it be it Paramount, Disney, Warner Bros Discovery etc.

If you and your family only liked content from one studio, that studio's streaming service may well suit you. But I think that's the exception rather than the rule.

Re: The future of television
 

Re: The future of television
 

If I had a Netflix subscription that would convince me to cancel. What a load of crap.

Re: The future of television
 

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...ds-for-5g.html

Doesn't sound like there will be a massive rush for sub-700Mhz from the MNOs.

Re: Freeview changes
 

BBC to axe BBC4, CBBC and BBC Radio 4 Extra on Freeview.

-CBeebies HD can now stay on Freeview - using CBBC HD slot.
-Will BBC 4 and CBBC closing mean all BBC Radio channels can still broadcast on Freeview when BBC ALBA is on air?

Re: Freeview changes
 

Link?

Re: Freeview changes
 

BBC Four and CBBC

https://www.tvbeurope.com/media-deli...yer-every-week

BBC Radio:

https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/stat...19443131318274

Re: Freeview changes
 

The TV channels will only close “after the next few years" from that link.

Re: Freeview changes
 

So, based on the link you eventually provided, what you have said here is extremely misleading.

First of all, what has been reported is an aspiration, at some point in the future, to close BBC4 and CBBC as broadcast channels and operate them as streaming-only brands, much the same as they did at BBC3 until earlier this year. I’d say the fact they were forced to reverse that streaming-only venture with BBC3 because they lost so many viewers tells us something about how many years off this is still likely to be.

Second, this isn’t about Freeview; if/when they eventually do it it will mean the end of all broadcast of BBC4 and CBBC, i.e. Freesat, Sky, Virgin and even the broadcast stream via iPlayer.

But apart from all that, yeah …

Re: Freeview changes
 

The last two lines was just my own view.

Re: Freeview changes
 

Interesting. I wonder how much they will save by taking the TV channels onto streaming only. I thought the cost of keeping the linear services operating alongside streaming alternatives was just buttons.

Maybe I dreamt that… :sleep:

Re: Freeview changes
 

Taking a TV Channel online-only is only a genuine thing if there is a commissioning/original programming budget. BBC4, if it is genuinely going to be 100% archive content only, is basically closed if it's online-only. A tab on an app is not a channel if there's no original content. Same with Radio 4 Extra when it comes to Radio.

CBBC, since there will be new content, can be considered as moving online.

I suspect some people (I don't mean you Old Boy) reading the news will interpret them moving online as them still being linear, because of the wording, and since they weren't in the demographic for BBC3, when that happened to it, they won't understand that it doesn't mean that.

Re: Freeview changes
 

I still to see #savebbc4, #savecbbcchannel or #saver4extra on Twitter yet.

Re: The future of television
 

The slow death knell for linear television continues apace as the BBC (who have been burned by this nonsense before) say that BBC Four and CBBC will go on demand only… in three years.

https://www.digitalspy.com/tv/a40115...annels-closed/

There is a glaring contradiction in there though:

Re: Freeview changes
 

I've seen plenty tweets, they just aren't using those hashtags. In fact many aren't using any hashtags. I don't navigate Twitter using them, except on a rare occasion, so I wouldn't read too much into it, especially with so many other things going on at the moment.

Even though BBC4 and Radio4 Extra are what I use, I think CBBC is, by far, the most important of the 3 service. I hope they restore the weekday afternoons CBBC on BBC1 or BBC2 if this closure goes ahead, to reach those who on-demand services won't reach and reduce repeats.

Re: The future of television
 

This plan sets them on a path to chopping off the bits nobody will miss, nothing more. BBC Four was always hard to fathom because the BBC’s arts output was already well catered for across BBC1 & 2, depending on budget and intended audience. Even now, Imagine is commissioned by BBC1 presumably because there’s no way in hell Yentob would ever admit he’s making a niche product. Attenborough and Cox likewise have such high price tags only BBC1 can justify making them.

CBBC is a lost cause because kids that age don’t watch TV designed for their age group any more. If our family experience is in any way typical they’ll watch a couple of family/adult-ish things with us, usually early evening, but then it’s off to TikTok. If they watch TV later in the evening it’s something like Derry Girls on channel 4, which is aimed a little older than them but is frankly exactly the sort of thing I’d have been watching on BBC2 or channel 4 at their age.

I can see the BBC continuing to make original children’s programmes out of PSB obligation but at the same time I won’t be at all surprised if one or two of their flagship productions - like Blue Peter - make a return to late afternoon on BBC1. But it’s hard to see a future for BBC4 as anything more than branding for arts and documentary box-sets.

Re: The future of television
 

In fairness to OB one of his predictions seems to be correct.
Hulu is offering full access, ad supported for $1 a month for 3 months. How long will it be before other streamers follow suit or will they?
I'm sure if Hulu see their revnue increase they may try it again for longer periods.

https://www.techadvisor.com/news/ent...-deal-3779153/

Re: The future of television
 

I hope BBC start broadcasting some of BBC 4 shows to stop using BBC News every weekday to use up time on BBC 2.

Re: The future of television
 

It is bizarre to put BBC3 on linear, and BBC4 online. The demographic of the audiences are the opposite of that...

Re: The future of television
 

Agreed again, was thinking exactly the same. Much as I enjoy BBC4 I'm not really sure I can be bothered firing the app up to stream it.

Re: The future of television
 

If I didn’t believe that the Beeb was neutral I could believe that they were making a political point. :rolleyes:

Re: The future of television
 

What political point would that be? After all, the future of TV is on demand over IP, so surely you conclude the audiences of BBC4 and CBBC are the most favoured to be getting this treatment?

Yet it’s almost as if you think putting these channels on a VOD-only platform is some sort of punishment. :scratch:

Re: The future of television
 

No - where did you get that idea?

I said before that putting BBC3 alone online was not the brightest idea the Beeb ever had. It should be all or nothing. That’s why Disney ceased to allow its material to be available on TV channels in favour of the streamer.

But it is a pretty wacky idea for them to bring back BBC3, a young person’s channel, because of disappointing viewing figures, and then putting a channel predominantly aimed at older viewers, to on line only.

One wonders who the hell is making these decisions if they are not being made simply to have a go at the government.

Re: The future of television
 

A fundamental misunderstanding of the broadcasting market in that the point is to be seen!

BBC4 is essentially being closed under the guise of being innovative.

Re: The future of television
 

I think the BBC is constrained from acting like Disney because it's a PSB. I think those without broadband or without good quality broadband would be unhappy to pay a licence fee without the guarantee of reliable access outside a web-based platform.

As regards BBC 3, I get the irony here but due to cut-backs, I think there would be insufficient new content to maintain BBC 4 as a linear channel.

Re: The future of television
 

Agreed, so they would be better just ditching the channel and save the cost of running it.

Re: The future of television
 

Actually I think that’s what they are doing - 1 and 2 between them are more than capable of picking up the slack so far as broadcast arts content goes. On iPlayer, BBC4 need be no more than an arts brand that can be used to group arts content from across the BBC in one place.

Re: The future of television
 

Yes, I think that’s absolutely right, and it conforms absolutely to my belief that ultimately all content will be categorised rather than split by channels in the way they are now when IPTV becomes the sole method of access. This is because the labels BBC1, BBC2, etc will become meaningless when all the content is to be found on the same streaming platform.

Re: The future of television
 

And if your Internet buffers, no tv. Linear/freeview has its advantages, its far more robust.

Re: The future of television
 

That will improve, Mr K.

Re: The future of television
 

I agree that channel names are meaningless in a streaming environment, but really this only applies in a streaming-only environment. BBC1 and 2 as identifiers within the iPlayer would only become obsolete if iPlayer were to lose its catch-up functionality, and it won’t lose that as long as it’s hosting material that has first been broadcast. For the time being the genre headings are already in iPlayer and anyone can browse under them if they choose. Whether the BBC will become streaming only in the next 10 years (or 20, or 30) is of course the whole question that keeps this thread going.

Re: The future of television
 

Agreed! :)

Re: The future of television
 

What is the difference between a category and a channel?

Re: The future of television
 

It depends on the extent to which the channel is themed. For the commercial PSBs plus BBC1 and 2, it’s a very significant difference because they are all generalist channels. For what we used to call digital multi channel tv there’s generally a lot less difference because the channels are already heavily themed.

The biggest noticeable shift *if* we went streaming only would be in pubic service tv. These operators would have to decide whether their channel brands could survive the change and how useful they would be as indicators of what they were offering. Does a BBC ONE brand, for example, make any sense if you’re not looking for something that was broadcast on BBC1, but rather a decent drama that could have been on any one of their channels?

I should add that it’s in this area the “streaming only” argument is weakest because I think it underestimates the usefulness and the popularity of a curated schedule. Plenty of people don’t know exactly what they want and are happy for the controller of a channel brand they trust to decide for them.

Re: The future of television
 

I agree with your explanation of the difference between categories and channels. And that has been my point all along - when channels are IPTV only, differentiating, say, BBC 1 and BBC 2 will be pointless. Pulling all the game shows, documentaries, films, dramas etc into their appropriate categories makes much more sense.

As for broadcast TV, its days are limited.

https://rxtvinfo.com/2022/what-happe...cleared-for-5g

[EXTRACT]

Will any further TV frequencies be cleared for 5G or other mobile services?

That’s under consideration. Next year, delegates from around the world will attend the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-2023), where this is an agenda item.

The WRC is organised by the ITU, a United Nations agency. At their conferences, decisions are made over the global use of frequencies and which services should use them. There are three ‘regions’, the UK, EU and Africa are in region 1. Some, particularly in the mobile industry, are pushing for further TV frequencies to be made available for mobile services. This would bring region 1 in line with region 2, which includes the USA and Canada. Here, the 600 MHz band is already used for mobile services, with terrestrial TV increasingly shunted into the VHF band.

Others want region 1 to adopt a shared use for the remaining TV frequencies, allowing them to be used for a variety of technologies. TV and PMSE (Programme Making and Special Events) would no longer have exclusive rights. There is great opposition, with African Union countries demanding no change to current usage. European broadcasters also object. Ofcom hasn’t yet confirmed its position.

But whichever decisions are made, the UK will have to abide by them. That’s why there is ongoing uncertainty over the future of terrestrial television beyond 2030.

Beyond 2030

All new multiplex licences will contain a revocation clause, which can be activated from 31st December 2025 giving the multiplex operator five year’s notice. Effectively, this means that viewers would get five years to some point in the 2030s that their TV service is being switched off. If the licences are not prematurely revoked, then they will expire naturally in 2034.

Other countries are pushing for 5G Broadcast to replace the current digital terrestrial TV service. It could use the current terrestrial transmitter network to deliver an open-access signal to all types of device. However, the UK has not signalled any push to 5G Broadcast or any other alternative. By 2034, TV frequencies may not been needed for anymore 5G services, but 6G.

Re: The future of television
 

https://advanced-television.com/2022...o-be-streamed/

Anthony Wood, CEO of streaming and device platform specialist Roku, has predicted that, eventually, all TV will move to streaming platforms, with advertisers following the audience away from traditional linear TV broadcasts.

Speaking to CNBC at the Cannes Lions festival on Roku’s take on the ad market, Wood said that “all television is going to be streamed. That means all TV advertising is going to be streamed”.

But we knew that, didn’t we? You heard it here first, after all!

Re: The future of television
 

So the head of a company whose entire line of business is providing streaming devices is predicting that all TV is going to be streamed?

Re: The future of television
 

It’s almost as if these people go to events like this to promote their products …

Re: The future of television
 

I think he knows what he’s talking about. I’d rather be listening to people like him than these diehard establishment figures who are constantly resisting change.

---------- Post added at 17:43 ---------- Previous post was at 17:43 ----------

They do, but it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t listen to them.

Re: The future of television
 

But given their likely agenda, we should listen to them with a critical ear and judge for ourselves whether the other evidence we can see bears out their testimony.

Re: The future of television
 

I'm just sick of TV advertising whether I have or have not paid to watch it.I'm sick of all those 10-20 minutes of my life taken up with adverts.It's mounting up and and at nearly 70 I've not got the time to waste watching the tripe in the ads.

Re: The future of television
 

ITV and Channel4 I watch on demand using Brave browser and adguard and get no adverts.

Re: The future of television
 

I havent seen an advert for years ;)

Re: The future of television
 

https://rxtvinfo.com/2022/ofcom-want...ew-frequencies

Re: The future of television
 

Oh dear.

Re: The future of television
 

Three important words there. "At this stage", which means they are not ruling it out altogether.

Re: The future of television
 

Given that our broadcast region includes African nations that are nowhere near as far down the road of high speed mobile comms and on demand TV as many European ones, I’d say that Ofcom won’t be the only regulator pressing for little or no change.

Re: The future of television
 

I don’t think anyone views mixed mode use of the spectrum as something that won’t happen at some point, just most of us aren’t pushing an arbitrary deadline plucked from thin air.

Re: The future of television
 

We'll find out next year after the WRC.

Re: The future of television
 

2035 was not plucked from thin air, jfman.

For example -

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...casting-sector

[EXTRACT]

’Make changes to the local TV licensing regime to enable the extension of the local TV multiplex licence until 2034…’

Re: The future of television
 

Impressive - you are using a Government paper published in April 2022 to support a proposition you made in 2015…

Re: The future of television
 

Maybe Old Boy saw a draft, but the final version suffered from a bit of buffering on its way to the printers?

Re: The future of television
 

There have been a number of reasons why I picked 2035, Hugh. This is just further confirmation that this could turn out to be a significant year which sees the end of broadcast TV.

Re: The future of television
 

Sounds a bit like post hoc justification...

"See! Seven years after I said something, someone else said something similar - that proves I didn't pluck that date out of thin air..."

Re: The future of television
 

OB also plucked from thin air 2025. I see 2035 anything other than an arbitrary extension by ten years than any meaningful analysis or insight to arrive at that figure.

Re: The future of television
 

My driving license expires when I turn 75. Does that mean the end of my driving career?

Re: The future of television
 

The 2025 date referred to something else - we’ve been through that already.

---------- Post added at 23:14 ---------- Previous post was at 23:13 ----------

Very droll, Chris. :D

Re: The future of television
 

I aim to please ;)

Serious point though … just because a licensing period ends at a certain point doesn’t mean the thing being licensed is going to get canned at that point. Nor does it mean there’s any intention, expectation or even likelihood of that happening. Licenses, charters, permits … these things all expire because it’s simply good practice to build in opportunities to review.

Re: The future of television
 

In fairness the main reason was that your 2025 date prediction date was ageing badly so you added ten years to it to make 2035 and hoped no one would notice.

Re: The future of television
 

No it isn’t fair and I explained that back in 2015. Time for you guys to move on.

---------- Post added at 10:47 ---------- Previous post was at 10:45 ----------

I know, Chris, but from where I stand, it’s all coming together now.

Too much has been made of this date, although I still stand by it. It’s just what I think will happen.

I’m not bloody Nostradamus!

Re: The future of television
 

https://advanced-television.com/2022...ers-value-dtt/

Re: The future of television
 

I know, Hugh, but those other countries, and probably ours too, will probably fight against that. I don’t think our government will be happy with the idea - they seem to be committed to the subscription model for the BBC, to accommodate the growing calls to abolish the licensing fee so that those who don’t watch it don’t have to pay for it. Unless they can find a technical means of enabling only those paying a subscription to watch the BBC by broadcast, and assuming that demand for bandwidth for 5G+ continues to grow, I wouldn’t bet my money on this campaign being successful.

You never know, though. Perhaps they will get cold feet.

Re: The future of television
 

This Government will be long gone by 2040.

Re: The future of television
 

Makes him a visionary doesn’t it?

Re: The future of television
 

Perhaps he heard "voices" telling him the future...

Re: The future of television
 

Another nail in the coffin for broadcast TV.

https://deadline.com/2022/06/british...ew-1235055208/

[EXTRACT]

British television viewers already complain loud and heartily about the amount of adverts on the box (notwithstanding it is the ads that pay for the content they’re enjoying).

Now they could face longer and more frequent ad breaks following a review of broadcasting rules by the regulator Ofcom, as part of a report on the PSB licences of the UK’s two ad-funded channels.

Re: The future of television
 

Oddly enough I was thinking about doing you a favour and posting that last night. If the commercial PSBs lean too hard into that then it might just turn viewers off faster than the ad breaks can rake in more money.

Re: The future of television
 

Only if you live that long ;)

Re: The future of television
 

Is that a prediction? Got a link? :D

---------- Post added at 16:53 ---------- Previous post was at 16:51 ----------

I agree, although I’m conscious that some people actually like the commercials more than the programmes. I have never understood that, but have to acknowledge they do exist - in what numbers, I’m not sure.

Re: The future of television
 

It's a balancing game. The commercial PSBs obviously don't offer their linear channels advert-free but they can offer the same content advert-free for a monthly streaming fee.

So they may be keen as it could encourage subscriptions as well as generating more revenue.

Alternatively, the greater supply of advertising time may send rates and viewers down.

But not much we do about that on TV,no way not to see lots of spam ads :(

Re: The future of television
 

Yes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-62070755

Re: The future of television
 

You sure you got the right thread for this link?

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1657205801

Re: The future of television
 

Yes, I said this Government would be long gone by 2040. OB asked me to evidence my prediction, and as chance would have it...

Re: The future of television
 

Fair enough, but (to me) a change of leader does not automatically mean a change of Government. YMMV.

Re: The future of television
 

Managed to pick up a Peacock Plus subscription in the US to see this brave new future. 48 linear channels (not including regional variations) and adverts in the streaming content. :rofl:

Re: The future of television
 

So what? We are in a transitional phase.

I really don’t see what you are trying to prove about how things may look in 2035, which is still 13 years away.

A lot can happen in 13 years. 13 years ago, Netflix was a mere fledgling streamer. Look at us now!

There’s no point in continuing to argue about this. We’ll all see soon enough who is right and who is wrong. I’ve said what I think will happen and you’ve said what you think. That’s fine. Let’s see what happens.

Re: The future of television
 

With no electricity streaming or terrestrial will be academic in 2035.

Maybe live open air theatre will make a comeback, here's hoping. :)

Re: The future of television
 

Pretty sure 13 years time isn’t "soon"… ;)

Re: The future of television
 

Are we?

You’re the only one who opines on and on about this being a journey towards less choice and diversity in how content is delivered. My experience of streaming services in Turkey, the Middle East/North Africa and now the USA has “streamers” all owned my international conglomerates all broadcasting as they do now and supplementing this with on demand offerings. Something NTL did in 2002.

Re: The future of television
 

I don’t know. 2009 seems like yesterday sometimes.

Re: The future of television
 

Re: The future of television
 

An interesting development in the light of the highly contested debate about broadcast terrestrial TV. This is particularly significant, coming from the BBC.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...v-by-2030.html

[EXTRACT]

The Director-General of the BBC, Tim Davie, has given broadband ISPs and mobile operators something extra to think about after he proposed that the corporation could plan to “switch-off” terrestrial TV and radio signals by the end of 2030. In their place, the broadcaster would focus on online content and streaming (e.g. iPlayer).

Re: The future of television
 

As discussed in another thread a couple of days ago…

Re: The future of television
 

Thank you, didn’t see that. However…

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-r...ne-only-switch

Re: The future of television
 

That’s just a different website reporting the same story, and making the same mistakes - namely, conflating online delivery with on-demand viewing (one enables the other, but they are not the same thing); and failing to adequately address the capability gap between what Davie might like to do and what technology will permit him to do.

His comments are so heavily caveated as to be almost meaningless - they know they won’t be able to reach every part of the UK online by 2030. They are going to have to continue using at least one traditional broadcast method well beyond then to ensure coverage. And therefore, even if for that reason alone, they are of necessity committed to a full programme schedule.

Even after they go streaming only, there’s a strong argument for maintaining a drop schedule (one episode per week, a la Amazon, Disney, as opposed to series drops, like Netflix) to try to maintain engagement over a longer period. There’s also the fact that the BBC and ITV produce a lot of live light entertainment as well as live news and current affairs, plus continuing dramas like Eastenders and Coronation street which can’t be dropped in one go because there’s always more to come, and permitting binge watching would destroy the entire marketing strategy for these shows.

All in all it is vanishingly unlikely that they are going to stop doing appointment to view event TV so they can become like just A. N. Other streaming platform. Why would they swap their advantage for anonymity?

Re: The future of television
 

Welcome back, OB!

Re: The future of television
 

https://www.pocket-lint.com/tv/news/...al-tv-channels

I’m gobsmacked. And they said it could never happen!

[EXTRACT]

The BBC's director-general has revealed that the corporation is planning for a future without its terrestrial TV channels.

Tim Davie told the Royal Television Society that the Beeb could move towards an internet-only model within the next decade.

That means the likes of BBC One, Two, Three and Four will no longer be available on Freeview or other digital TV platforms. In fact, the existing channels could be united under just one brand - The BBC.

Re: The future of television
 

You do know that’s the same story now posted three times on this forum, including twice in this thread (both times by you)? And it’s no more convincing now than it was the first time.

Re: The future of television
 

You didn’t notice that Tim Davie was talking about the next 10 years, then. That’s even more ambitious than the prediction I made in 2015.

Re: The future of television
 

I did. However, what you didn’t seem to notice is:

1. You posted the same speech, three times, from ISP Review, then the Guardian, and now Pocket Lint;
2. You weren’t even first to do so - Hugh posted the ISP Review item in another thread last week;
3. Which means that last week (and also again earlier this week to humour you), the weaknesses of those reports and the caveats in Davie’s own speech have already been addressed.

For the ‘n’th time: IP delivery ≠ video on demand. Your prediction in 2015 was that by 2025 British TV would be VOD only. It quite obviously won’t be. According to Davie’s speech the BBC will be unable to deliver an exclusively VOD service by 2035, which is the date you later claimed to have predicted.

IP is a content delivery mechanism, VOD is one of the ways it can be utilised. And from Davie’s own observations, while they might want to move to exclusively IP delivery (which is *not* equivalent to VOD), even as early as 2030, they won’t be able to because there are too many barriers to access, in terms of cost and widespread deployment of sufficiently fast internet to UK homes. Even if they intended to accompany their move to exclusively IP delivery with exclusively on-demand menus a la Netflix, they could not do so, because for an indeterminate time they are going to have to continue to make their content available by at least one traditional method (most likely satellite IMO). If for that reason alone, they will not be abandoning linear broadcast TV in 2030.

But by all means go on pretending you’re not reading this stuff. You’ve been pretending not to be on the forum for weeks now … ;)

Re: The future of television
 

Here’s the actual speech, not the sound bites and paraphrasing by others.

https://rts.org.uk/article/leading-u...dcast%20allows.

There is nothing in the speech about closing down OTA broadcasting in 10 years - the nearest thing is when he says Fewer linear broadcast services, not the end of linear broadcast services.

Re: The future of television
 

The emboldened part of your response just shows that you are being deliberately provocative. I have always talked about 20 years’ time (from 2015) and when the ‘2025’ misunderstanding crept in, I corrected it - that was in 2016. You know that, because I have clarified it many times.The 2025 claim related to broadband rollout, and that was based on government statements made at the time, which were later modified.

I posted the latest item because it clarified that Davie was actually looking at merging the BBC channels into one ‘BBC’ and closing down the terrestrial channels within a decade. That is the most definite statement I believe he has made about this.

Yes, I maintain we will be VOD only by 2035, and if you don’t understand that’s what Davie is talking about when he says ‘one BBC’ instead of BBC1, BBC2, etc, then I really don’t know what you are trying to say here.

I am sticking to my guns on this one. I believe that we will be VOD only in the near future and everything will be online. I am drawing attention to the fact that events do seem to lead to the conclusion that what I thought would happen is likely to come to pass.

You (and certain others on here) may think different. That’s cool, I don’t mind. Strange that you are getting so exercised about the prospect. :shrug:

PS - What do you think he means by ‘one BBC’?

---------- Post added at 17:15 ---------- Previous post was at 16:50 ----------

Thank you for the full speech. In my post I was relying on the pocket link article which stated:

That means the likes of BBC One, Two, Three and Four will no longer be available on Freeview or other digital TV platforms. In fact, the existing channels could be united under just one brand - The BBC.

I do accept Chris’s point about the technology not keeping pace with what the media wants to do, but actually it is the rollout of broadband that is the issue here, not our technical capability. Clearly, given the universality requirement of the BBC’s services, if the broadband isn’t available to a significant number of households, then the service needs to be delivered in a different way. My assumption has always been that full rollout would be achieved by 2035.

If the government decide against the subscription model after all, then, yes, I guess the urgency of this in the government’s eyes will be lessened and the process may take longer. That has not yet happened, however.

I guess we’ll have to wait and see, won’t we? By the way, it was linear channels I said would go, not linear broadcasts. You can already get linear broadcasts on the live part of the BBC I-Player. In the future, I believe that these will be accessed by category rather than by TV channel as they are now.

Re: The future of television
 

OB, you state

And the BBC Director-General states

Who do you think has a more accurate view?

Re: The future of television
 

He did, but he didn’t say ‘linear channels’, and as for whether there are any terrestrial services at all, that will be dependent on whether space must be given up to other services.

We can only base any predictions on what we know when we make that prediction. If things change, then of course that will impact on the prediction. Mine was predicated by having broadband fully rolled out by the early 2030s, the transmitters being no longer available for broadcast and the subscription model being approved for the BBC to replace the licence fee next time around.

I accept that if any of these things do not happen, that will jeopardise the original prediction.

Re: The future of television
 

Could you link to the OP that states those three things, please?

Re: The future of television
 

Interestingly, had OB read ISP Review beyond simply plucking a headline that suits his narrative there's a couple of worrying signs for commercial broadband deployment in the UK.

https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...hallenges.html

Very low penetration rates, ouch.

Now nobody really disputes it'll get there, or that viewing over time will migrate towards online. As I've pointed out before - linear over the internet is still linear. Although I doubt it'll go all online as soon as predicted in any case. The infrastructure simply won't be there in particular in rural areas.

Re: The future of television
 

Linear over the internet is indeed linear, but I‘ve never queried that. I said that the linear ‘channels’ like BBC1, 2, 3, 4 will disappear. Linear broadcasts obviously won’t because then you wouldn’t be able to get live news and sport, for example.

I agree that if the government misses its broadband rollout targets, we won’t be likely to achieve the end of linear channels by 2035.

Incidentally, I should clarify that we may still have FAST channels if they can be commercially viable, but these are different. They tend to show old programmes in the main and are often focussed on certain limited types of programme or personalities. I can’t see them lasting that long, to be honest, but you never know. I certainly don’t expect any of them to enjoy mass audiences or even audiences that are anywhere near as large as even our minor channels.

Re: The future of television
 

So linear channels in all but name will exist.

Do you even know what the Government targets are for broadband rollout, OB?

It’s an important distinction OB that your belief has an ever increasing number of caveats while the rest of us are comfortable in our own analysis as we have been throughout. Too many dependencies - public and private sector investment, regulatory intervention and consumer behaviour are required to hit a target we believe is wholly unrealistic.