Re: Coronavirus
 

You must have more faith in Billy Bunter and Prattcock OB. They know what they are doing ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Is this a trick question? :confused: The end of the extension and the end of all restrictions.

---------- Post added at 21:41 ---------- Previous post was at 21:38 ----------

Hopefully, the postponement might be less than four weeks
https://www.ft.com/content/e781a740-...e-0949f42e0891

Re: Coronavirus
 

And if a new "variant of concern" comes along do we have to wait for the data on that before the end of all restrictions?

Like Pierre, I'm lucky as my situation means the lockdowns have had no real effect but for minor issues like havng to wear a mask etc. No big deal. Any extention will not affect me personally but I do not think it is right to do so.

An increase of 2 weeks may well be enough to push businesses in the hospitality and entertainment industry over the brink with the loss of many thousands of jobs. Furlough doesn't guarantee a job will still be there when the restrictions are lifted.

Mental health issues are likely to rise and is a problem for the future. I know the roadmap was hopefully expected dates but many have taken it as gospel.

It's OK saying "What's another 2 weeks?", well for some it could be a big problem.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Do you think BoJo should base his decisions around mental health issues alone? I'm sure you would be calling him pandering to the snowflakes if he did this.

Re: Coronavirus
 

It looks like this is happening so Witty and Valance will express what the concerns of SAGE and the Government are.

Maybe there will be a two-week review into it to see if the concerns about hospitals and cases can be calmed or not. In Bolton, the peak quickly subsided which is promising but the delay between cases and hospitalisations is probably what concerns them. It's only in the last week or so the cases shot up so any knock-on for hospitals will come to the end of the next one and into the week after.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Hopefully a full public and criminal enquiry as to where the cash has gone, tens of billions on track and trace not to mention the billions shoved into into the pockets of friends cronies and doners

Re: Coronavirus
 

More likely: Dido Harding becomes head of NHS England
https://www.hsj.co.uk/workforce/dido...030235.article

---------- Post added at 22:48 ---------- Previous post was at 22:45 ----------

Breaking: Sky News has received a leak indicating a four-week postponement will be announced.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ource-12332022

Re: Coronavirus
 

Postponement = a total failure of every thing we have done to combat the virus ,it says we can't rely on the vaccines ,social distancing has failed, hands face space are just empty words, business's have been destroyed for no good reason, we have wasted our time, four weeks will evolve into another four weeks and this madness will go on forever :(

Re: Coronavirus
 

:juggle:

Probably a new super spreading variant every month, just to keep us on our toes :mis:


:xmas:

Re: Coronavirus
 

You are Old Boy and I claim my ten pounds… ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Now now it's only worth a fiver... :)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Beeb now also reporting the four-week leak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57464097

Re: Coronavirus
 

Leak? it's becoming a flash flood ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

The dams collapsed;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Get vaccinations moving.

In the last 7 days we did over a million first doses and over two million second doses. A significant shift of the odds in our favour.

Meanwhile huge swathes of the economy can press forward as the spectre of another lockdown and increased restrictions moves further and further away.

Steve Baker’s wet dream of a freedom day probably won’t happen, but many restrictions can be eased in a safer way in 4 weeks. Working from home will continue for many (indeed, for many employers it’ll be a new normal hybrid way of working post-Covid), a mask recommendation will likely remain.

If anyone wants to look at a success story look at Israel. A success that is 100% within our grasp if we take the correct course of action rather than snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Re: Coronavirus
 

No shot, Sherlock…

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...ister-12332121

Re: Coronavirus
 

I looked back at the conditions for the grand reopening and how they kit with where were are now. Here's my take;

1. Vaccination programme continues to go to plan - We seem to be steady going but clearly, the more we have vaccinated the better
2. Evidence shows vaccines are reducing deaths and numbers requiring hospital treatment - weak but growing stronger evidence
3. Infection rates do not risk surge in hospital admissions - hospitalisations are going up in the worst hit regions. The big question is by how much as we are still on the upwards curve
4. New variants do not change the risk of lifting restrictions - Unfortunately, the Delta variant came along a little late in the day so this we're not sure about

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's a sub section that really has no relevance, considering the ease at which people - and their infection - can come & go from this country once/when restrictions are lifted.
The next new variant* will throw us back again once it's 'data and analysis proven' that it's more infectious and more resistant to the vaccinations.


*you read it here first :p:

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's where border restrictions are key and will remain. However where there are spikes in countries - whether they can be attributed to variants or not - quarantine has to be implemented fast while investigation carried out.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I suggest you nip down to Kent, have a look at how good our border restrictions are :D


Edit: Here we go again . . .

Headache and runny nose linked to Delta variant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

not just hay fever then? :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

A thousand a week since the beginning of the year is small fry compared to the 1.5 million who landed in the UK Airports in the first 3 months of this year...

And we still have direct flights from India, even after they were put on the "red list".

Re: Coronavirus
 

Thank you for picking up on what I deliberately omitted, falling nicely into the well laid trap and agreeing that our borders are no protection from new variants :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

They are - they just have to be actually controlled...

Such as not letting the people in at the airports, enforcing quarantine, not having direct flights from red list countries.

That's like saying the brakes on your car are rubbish, when you don't actually try and use them to slow the car.

Re: Coronavirus
 

..

Re: Coronavirus
 

oh I agree Hugh, which is why I've mentioned a few times that you won't stop it until you completely and entirely block all means of entry . . which won't happen.

Re: Coronavirus
 

"Disinfectant" is a generic term, just as "Bleach" doesn't necessarily mean a specific liquid. Eg would you use household bleach to bleach your hair? No, it's an effect. As such, the possibility of developing a substance that acts in a disinfecting manner, ISN'T that nonsensical.:rolleyes:
Link

Re: Coronavirus
 

The trouble with figures like 70% (or whatever) for herd immunity is it assumes random distribution of immunity. But what we have at the moment is unvaccinated young people mingling with other unvaccinated young people. Each herd needs to reach 70%

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah, it depends whether you go innocent until proven guilty or guilty until proven innocent. My feeling is that we are just on the wrong side of knowing for sure if the conditions can be met due to the vaccination programme. It's an unpopular view but lets vaccinate a few more and get some good data and hold for a bit. The longer we wait for better data, the more people will be vaccinated at the same time and the safer we will be.

Or, to put it another way (and I am repeating myself a bit here) what is the cost of getting it wrong? If we open too early, the cost will be lives. If we wait a little longer unnecessarily, the cost will be broadly economic. That's the decision that the government needs to make. They have been slammed in the past to not making tough decisions quick enough, and potentially people died due to the slow movement of lockdowns, closing borders, etc. Then there's the value judgement of what value you put on lives over the economy.

Glad I am not the one making those decisions!

Re: Coronavirus
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disinfectant

Pretty sure the human body isn’t an "inert surface" - well, not until you inject disinfectant into it… ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

That might limit possible new variants, but still isn't the reason for new cases overall. If somebody with a new variant comes into the country with a new variant, they still have to spread it around in the same way, existing variants are still being spread around.
Link

That sort of thing just should not be happening.

---------- Post added at 13:18 ---------- Previous post was at 13:02 ----------

Neither is skin or mucous membranes that are in the quoted section. It's an action, rather than a substance. He WASN'T suggesting using household type disinfectant.:rolleyes:

Jane Austen, Pride and Prejudice.
Tamiflu, used to combat flu is in the Carboxylic acid drug class, yet is accepted for human use. Does a Carboxylic acid sound that safe to take?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, let’s just close everything down and lock everyone up forever. Job done.

Just as well you are not leading the country, you’d be lynched by now.

;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wonder what financial support the Steve Bakers of this world would put in place for businesses (in particular hospitality) forced to close entirely due to a Covid outbreak among their staff.

After all - so many are in such a precarious state that the next 4 weeks open with restrictions would put them out of business surely being closed while staff self isolate for having Covid (or as a close contact behind a bar or in a kitchen without mitigation).

Has he, or any of the ease restrictions at all costs brigade, ever came out with anything on this subject?

In might of nomadkings post above at the cake factory these things would be increasingly likely, indeed inevitable.

Re: Coronavirus
 

True, but younger people are not getting hospitalised and the vast majority of the more vulnerable age groups have been immunised.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Younger people are being hospitalised. What you mean to say is that you don’t think that’s of any meaningful consequence because you’d prefer to open up the economy. As you have throughout.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'd like to see the numbers you've seen on that.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Why? You'll only describe them as small in any case.

Let's just call it a small number. I'll say it has the potential to grow as cases grow. You'll claim there's no evidence for that. I'll say it stands to reason as it has throughout the pandemic. And we can continue on the merry go round for another 4 weeks.

Old Boy implied the number to be zero. Which it is not.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Can you show that to be the case

Re: Coronavirus
 

I was wondering this and 1 minute of Googling found this - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...tary-Data.xlsx

That data looks very good! The bulk of admissions are in the 18-54 age group. Considering that this group has the lowest vaccination rate and least likely to be hospitalised amongst adult, this looks like good news. Go back a few months and see how the balance changes - older people were the bulk of admissions

Re: Coronavirus
 

I’ve not looked for a data set yet, but a commentator on the radio at lunchtime pointed out that Israel has achieved near-total vaccination now and the delta variant simply hasn’t taken hold there. Notwithstanding that they did their whole population with Pfizer which does have higher efficacy, there is every reason to believe that once we have the data here, it will permit unlocking. Especially as the additional 4 weeks delay should allow time for a further 10 million vaccinations.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Good job you’re not leading the country, there would be a lot more dead and the NHS would be in ruins by now.

;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

If you look at Israel cases started to collapse significantly in the first two weeks of March around the same time “fully vaccinated” hit 40%. The variant changes the dynamic as does our vaccine mix, and I haven’t checked what their restrictions looked like then.

But there’s every reason to be positive as we push through 50% which the delay will take us to, and closer to 60% roughly where our “one dose” figure stands now.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I too have seen that data, but it's not granular enough, 18-54 is a large group, the bulk of admissions could well be in the 44-54 with much less in the 18 - 30 range. That claim was that "younger" people were being hospitalised unsurprisingly with no supporting data, or a definition of "younger". To be fair that was in response to an equally unsubstantiated claim that younger people were not being hospitalised also not supported by any data.

Case rates may have increased, especially in the North West, in the "younger" population and have dramatically reduced in the older population but have a guess who's going to hospital? (data week 23 of 2021)

https://assets.publishing.service.go...report_w23.pdf

COVID continues to be a disease that affects the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. If there are "younger" people being admitted to hospital the % certainly in the under 25s will be so small as not to register in any meaningful statistic.

Re: Coronavirus
 

So which is it?

Younger people don’t get hospitalised as OB said or what I stated:

You’re firmly in the latter camp. As someone privileged and unaffected by restrictions it’s unsurprising I suppose that you give no consideration to the health impact for groups that restrictions are there to protect (the unvaccinated due to age).

Gladly Boris is about to put paid to this June 21st nonsense and show us the meaningful data the Government are using (who knows - it might even be granular enough for you but I have my doubts), provide reassurance that the economy needs that we are doing all we can to avoid another lockdown.

Who knows in 5 weeks we could all be down the lap dancing.

Re: Coronavirus
 

July 29th? Bit later than we thought.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Suspect he meant 19th.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Or I misheard. Does seem to be the 19th

Re: Coronavirus
 

I heard 29th one of the times. :)

---------- Post added at 18:19 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

We can safely say he’s not prepared an answer for the planted questions.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Did either of you catch which year? :D

Re: Coronavirus
 

July 19th?



:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

Which century…

Re: Coronavirus
 

Avoided a couple of questions - e.g. On both could masks remain and a return to the office.

Israel kept masks indoors long after the stage we are at in their hugely successful vaccination campaign.

While there might not be a legal restriction on offies, or distancing rules, that doesn’t mean employers won’t keep a significant proportion of staff out of offices (and out of danger). They do still have obligations under various health and safety legislation to mitigate, and with the rules requiring even those vaccinated to self isolate in close contact to those testing positive could cause significant disruption to businesses.

Indeed at least one Civil Service department is moving it’s employees to enshrine working from home two days per week. If Government are leading by example, the example isn’t the one the Iain Duncan Smiths of this world were pushing for last September. This will have some economic impact well beyond July 19.

---------- Post added at 18:57 ---------- Previous post was at 18:56 ----------

:D:D:D

Re: Coronavirus
 

So the vaccines are so good that the gov have no faith in them and want to carry on with this lockdown fiasco. nice graph work by twitty explaining the whatifery scale.





Good news for weddings just keep it miserable.

Re: Coronavirus
 

There’s very little granular data and depends what your definition of “younger” is, but if you want to score a point as OB posted his as an absolute statement, I would doubt him to be correct.

That said, it’s irrelevant as the numbers are so low. Even now in the North West, where the vast majority of those being infected are “younger”, those being hospitalised are still the over 85’s, not the young.

---------- Post added at 19:26 ---------- Previous post was at 19:21 ----------

With an option to do it sooner if the data allows.

If we get to July 7th and hospitalisations remain under the threshold ( which they are now, well under the SAGE prediction level for opening up) hen they should open up on the 8th along with an apology.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Setting yourself up for more disappointment here Pierre. They were clear about the impact of vaccination over the next 4 weeks going forward.

If in two weeks things are much the same then that's a bonus. But there's zero chance of easing restrictions meaningfully. He might throw the plebs a bone just to be seen to do something.

Re: Coronavirus
 

PM statement at coronavirus press conference: 14 June 2021
Delivered on:
14 June 2021 (Transcript of the speech, exactly as it was delivered)

snippet ... https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...e-14-june-2021

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sky News stating that Nick Hancock will be making a sttement tonight on second doses being brought forward.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As they say it's a Game of Two Halves. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

I support Everton, setting myself up for disappointment is not a problem.

Re: Coronavirus
 

In a different thread about alien invasion, it was said that alien life form may not necessarily be like or anything close to human form. I speculated that they could take the form of a virus (the pandemic hadn't long started at this time) and that covid could well be an invasion by a different life form and not as usually portrayed eg little green creatures arriving on space ships :D

On this evenings the One Show, the virologist Dr Xand said that humans started out as a virus and eventually morphed into what we are today.

With this in mind, does anyone know, if covid managed to kill every human on the planet, could it survive? Or does it need human beings to live on and be mobile?

If it can't survive without us, it's aim seems rather counterproductive. Perhaps it's the work of the devil :erm:

Re: Coronavirus
 

It's a bat virus that can't survive in bats. Like the hypothetical RATG-13. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

You've found the solution there Richard to kill Covid we all need to die. Can't see it being popular.
( I'd avoid the One Show if I were you . CBBC is still broadcasting at that time and more informative. )

Re: Coronavirus
 

A virus cant survive without hosts.

Re: Coronavirus
 

You know very well I didn't mean zero. I meant that young people are not being hospitalised in significant numbers.

We have surely seen the graphs which showed the number of people hospitalised by age groups. The vast majority were over 50s.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, I conveyed your belief that the number wasn’t significant in my post directly responding to you.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yeah, it's annoying not having more granular information. I can find more granular data for;

Cases
Deaths
And vaccinations
-------------------------------------------------
Wait, found it!!

Summary
Underlying data (see the second tab 'Time series')

It looks like the hospitalisation rate per 100,000 is still the highest in the 85+ cohort but it has dropped like a stone which is great. It's not clear if the admissions are for COVID or if COVID was found on admission. I see that the death rate in ages 75-85+ from COVID is now lower than the 45-74 cohorts.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I was thinking and chatting with family last night about the small changes and why they couldn't release some restrictions on private gatherings in homes. I mean changing from inviting one family round to two or maybe three couples isn't really increasing the chances of spread much.
Then I remember the great British public who wouldn't use a bit of common sense and slowly ramp up but would go wild, have a big shing ding with no controls.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That is the biggest problem. The public are thick.
Half these restrictions wouldn't be necessary if we could rely on people to use common sense, but we can't.

Re: Coronavirus
 

as a member of the public do you include yourself in that statement?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Expecting the public to be able to put up with such major changes in their lives for such a significant period of time doesn't make them thick IMHO

collectively, the public can be easily swayed & unsurprisingly there will be a significant amount of lockdown fatigue.

Lockdown 1. Almost everyone in my area strictly adhered to the rules.
Lockdown 2. (The lockdown that wasn't) people in my area took greater risks (myself included)
Subsequent lockdowns? pretty much a free for all

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

Some interesting back of cigarette paper calculations on Twitter.

Had we red listed India when we red listed Bangladesh we would have kept out 96% of Delta seedings.

Yes, it'd inevitably have grown, but it could have bought is an extra 4 to 7 weeks before the current "wave" got to where it is now.

We could all have been down the lap dancing after all on June 21st had the Government took such a simple step.

Still it's only 4 weeks and we can get the economy going by spending £30 every 3-5 minutes or so.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Link for that claim?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Jfman said . - the back of a cigarette paper ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

It must be frustrating for BoJo that his well-intentioned punt to get into India's good books resulted in him having to postpone full opening up for a month.

Michael Gove on the BBC being grilled about the delay in placing India on the red list:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreakfast/sta...95837570121729

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

In fairness - to some degree - everyone is trying to get into India's good books, hence the acceptance of renaming the Indian variant. Nobody was that bothered about Brazil or South Africa.

---------- Post added at 13:26 ---------- Previous post was at 13:19 ----------

With the previous cigarette paper health warning

https://twitter.com/declamare/status...019214852?s=19

It also uses modelling which is in a close contest with polling with the least popular thing on the forum. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just watching the Hungary V Portugal game, there's 67K at the game, do they have Covid under control there?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

9 infections per 100,000 population in last 7 days right now and falling. Vaccine certified crowd as well.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I wish I'd had a drop of Sputnik instead of the dodgy Oxford stuff. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

I'm sure we could find you some Novichok instead. ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just not risk averse, unlike the muppets we have.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Don't know about that. The Hungary defence were observing social distancing very well !

Re: Coronavirus
 

Vaccine certification is risk mitigation. We just love freedom that much we'd rather not.

Re: Coronavirus
 

As of last night, I am now officially double jabbed! No side effects this time apart from a very slightly achy arm. The first round (AZ) was pretty nasty in terms of side effects so I am happy not the have that again.

The staff doing the jabs were trying to persuade me that having the second jab was good even if I did get side effects. My reply - preaching to the converted sister, get it in my arm!

Wish I could do something with my forthcoming new found immunity but no, we have to make sure that those who don't want vaccinations are discriminated against :mad:

Re: Coronavirus
 

I had no symptoms whatsoever with both jabs . . . maybe I'm one of those who still have no antibodies :shocked:

lock down forever I say, just in case, you know . . .

Re: Coronavirus
 

Could be quite a battle looming.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Just what we need a mass exodus from the health services as we go into the winter months.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I heard some NHS trusts have had such stipulations on vaccines for a while. That if you want to work with patients/vulnerable people you need to have had the standard vaccinations.

Re: Coronavirus
 

But those standard vaccines are well proven over many years, covid vaccines are new and many people are worried about future complications.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Is that far removed from local councils insisting that all people working with children/vulnerable adults have to take an enhanced DBS check?

In one case you're protecting children, in the other you're protecting patients :shrug:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Only in so far as the local council aren't trying to insert the DBS check into your blood stream with genetically engineered Viral RNA, though I hear that is coming soon.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Other vaccines were new at some point and surely people would have been concerned about future complications when these other vaccines were released?

Re: Coronavirus
 

I guess the key difference is that things like DBS and HGV licences are mandated by law whereas vaccinations are mandated by employers.

Re: Coronavirus
 

And abused by them to such a degree the government has legislated for filters to be applied

Re: Coronavirus
 

I was thinking more about the 'Human Rights' outcry side of things. It seems to be the 'go to' place for anything that upsets people and their work conditions.

I guess including it in working contracts would trigger a few, but at the end of the day everybody has a choice of whether to work or not ;)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Is Nick Hancock seen by the PM as hopeless for his handling of the pandemic response?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57498845