Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050824)

Stand back in amazement! I thought that was what you were doing!

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A human assessment of risk... by 'experts'.

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This is an over-simplification. T-cells are also important in fighting infection. The doubt that you should have here is whether any vaccine that is discovered will be effective over more than the short term.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050812)

Point - 9.2 million ≠ 66 million

Hope that helps...

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050714)

I have. I think you’ve made assumptions that are incorrect.

Pretty much every sentence is based on assumptions you’ve made in the sentence that preceded it that are flawed, or at least not the only possible reasoning, claiming it is a logical conclusion when it is not.

I could equally claim that the first wave would be seven times as bad as the second using the “straightforward logic” it projected seven nightingale hospital compared to one for the second wave.

I think everyone would accept that conclusion is made in the absence of material facts.

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36050721)

:confused: Lockdown and other measures)eg shielding, social distancing) prevented herd immunity from happening.

Also as I've previously pointed out, antibodies decrease naturally after a few months. Instead the immune "memorizes" the antigen(eg virus) and is primed and ready, if it encounters it again.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050742)

I say we hibernate from winter, let Covid pass over and come back out in Spring.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050768)

All countries, literally all, need to simultaneously push to zero. Release areas/regions from lockdown when they get there. When someone finally does the sums this was always the rational response.

However capitalism, and an aim for competitive advantage, always made some idiots gamble. If they are right the returns are huge. However like a problem gambler they routinely lose. There's only ever been one way out without a vaccine. I'll likely still be here in spring arguing as hundreds of billions have been spend on Covid mitigation. A fraction of the cost of paying 66 million folk, on a household basis, to stay apart for 2 months.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050838)

Except that it will still be there, waiting for the fools who think they've beaten it.!

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050807)

I know this might be a shock, but I totally agree with you.

There is no one "silver bullet", but if people use, cumulatively, a series of measures (proper washing of hands, keeping a distance, don't spend too much time in a crowded place, wearing a mask, etc.), all together they will reduce the risk - not to zero, but any lessening of the chance of being infected can only be a good thing.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36050806)

Another peer reviewed paper on T-cell immunity.



Link

Still needs more research though.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050845)

If the world locked down for this period of time then the virus would be history.

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36050848)

Really? So it just goes away?

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050853)

I believe it needs new non-immune human hosts in order to survive for more than a few days. A global lockdown - impossible to get all countries to agree - would achieve this.

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36050848)

Really? So it just goes away?

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36050856)

Well not exactly, it fades away into the shadows and loses its notoriety . . .





. . . only to emerge 3 years later as a contestant on a celebrity quiz show :D

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050838)

Are your assumptions based on material facts, jfman, rather than on your natural inclination to argue?

Nobody has all the answers, but there are one or two things becoming apparent as we learn more about the virus.

I would remind you that you have been berating the government consistenly for not locking down earlier, and you have been comparing our death totals with other countries who have not counted their death totals in the same way as we have.

In those countries, the second wave is coming back with a vengeance. Nobody, but nobody (and that includes you and me) knows the extent of our second wave because it hasn't happened yet. If it turns out to be a very shallow wave, that will even out the death totals and confirm that the later lockdown did no harm. This is why I have said throughout that it is far too early to criticise the government for taking advice from the medical people that the herd immunity theory was the one to follow before the panic set in.

To be perfectly clear, I am not saying that we won't get the full force of a second wave. No-one knows at this stage. But if we do, it really does confirm the futility of your lockdown solutions, doesn't it?

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I agree with your second paragraph, nomad, but the first is not right. Herd immunity is just a fact of nature, it has not been eliminated.

It is because we have not yet acquired herd immunity that we are now seeing the start of a second wave. The measures we introduced have just slowed the process down and increased the risk of mutation.

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Except that it will still be there, waiting for the fools who think they've beaten it.

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Covid 19 is also a problem in Communist Russia! Your theories are progressively becoming more bizarre!

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050864)

Whilst I don’t necessarily agree with the protests, I’m curious why the police were so keen to disperse this one.

Given that they were quite happy to let recent BLM and Ext Reb ones take place recently?

http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...otest-12076069



I’m not a conspiracy theorist but such a statement And subsequent police action is a conspiracy theorist’s dream.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050864)

Whilst I don’t necessarily agree with the protests, I’m curious why the police were so keen to disperse this one.

Given that they were quite happy to let recent BLM and Ext Reb ones take place recently?

http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...otest-12076069

I’m not a conspiracy theorist but such a statement And subsequent police action is a conspiracy theorist’s dream.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36050870)

Were the Covid conditions the same when all three protests took place?

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050864)

Whilst I don’t necessarily agree with the protests, I’m curious why the police were so keen to disperse this one.

Given that they were quite happy to let recent BLM and Ext Reb ones take place recently?

http://news.sky.com/story/coronaviru...otest-12076069



I’m not a conspiracy theorist but such a statement And subsequent police action is a conspiracy theorist’s dream.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050873)

According to the government’s own 5 step plan, any future lock would only be applied if the NHS was in imminent threat of being overwhelmed. Which it is’n’t.

I think any future lockdowns or more restrictive measures should go through Parliament.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050874)

Anything to stall it, eh?

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050875)

I would have thought you would always want the government held to account and for Parliament to be sovereign?

Yes, I Am going to throw this at You with regular monotony

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050862)

More laughable nonsense Old Boy. A mere few posts ago you were questioning whether a vaccine would have lasting effects yet here you are advocating herd immunity again. There’s either lasting immunity or there isn’t. The contradictions are almost endless.

Nobody has all the answers, I agree with that, but some people have absolutely none. Nothing but noise filling a void in an empty hope that GDP will recover without solving the health emergency.

As ever Old Boy I’ve got extremely bad news for you. It’s going to be a long hard winter.

The only thing bizarre here is the fact you seem to contradict everything I say for the sake of it despite your track record of being proven wrong time and again. We’re never going to go down the Sweden route here so you better cross your fingers that the vaccine works and we get first dibs or this recession will go on for years.

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36050872)

The Police (non) response to Ex Reb protests have made a rod for their own backs. They have no-one but themselves to blame.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050878)

When did I say herd immunity was 'lasting'? Your word, not mine.

I am absolutely convinced that herd immunity is the solution. However, if we keep slowing the virus down like this and the immunity is only relatively short term, it could come back and re-infect those who have already had it. That is the risk we take by having lockdowns.

There is nothing contradictory about my argument on this. It is you twisting what I am saying.

As for the economy, that will recover provided the PM isn't pushed into a position of having a second national lockdown of the kind we saw this spring. A second lockdown would indeed be disastrous for the economy, as well as rather pointless.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050877)

Just met a fellow dog-walker this morning, who’s an anaesthesiologist at a local hospital - Leeds ICUs are filling up with COVID patients again.

Learnt something new about COVID from her - COVID patients (even non-ICU) with no previous history of kidney problems are suffering from medium to severe kidney damage, requiring dialysis - this is a challenge, as the system is set up to cater for around 6,500 new patients needing dialysis a year, and it’s looking like it will be 10s of thousands in the very near future.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050880)

So you’re convinced that the solution is herd immunity, but are unconvinced that such immunity will be lasting, as long as we open up the economy to put more people at risk?

Well, Old Boy. There’s nothing I can really say to such ignorance.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050911)

You still don't get it.

Herd immunity is nature. It will arise when the virus has infected the vast majority of people, and once that has happened, the virus will have run its course.

These lockdowns are simply delaying our acquisition of herd immunity, and risking mutation. Not only that, but by delaying the spread of Covid 19, it is even possible that it will remain a threat as some may lose the immunity they developed from the virus in the first place.

Play with nature like this and you play with fire.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36050911)

You still don't get it.

Herd immunity is nature. It will arise when the virus has infected the vast majority of people, and once that has happened, the virus will have run its course.

These lockdowns are simply delaying our acquisition of herd immunity, and risking mutation. Not only that, but by delaying the spread of Covid 19, it is even possible that it will remain a threat as some may lose the immunity they developed from the virus in the first place.

Play with nature like this and you play with fire.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050914)

Is that the immunity a mere few posts ago you were unconvinced by?

I think you should take the next lockdown as an opportunity to take a few weeks away from the thread and think about what valid contributions you actually want to make to it. Thus far it's just been contradiction after contradiction.

The only consistent point you've made throughout it is that you care more about reopening the economy than you do public health. Your hypothetical decision to let the virus rip throughout the world at the cost of millions of lives, tens of millions of people developing debilitating contditions it'd have to be the world or else we'd simply re-import these hypothetical mutated strains - is to give the virus billions of opportunities to mutate. Another contradiction.

The sum total of human existence to date has been to try and fight against nature. Take your "play with fire" rhetoric elsewhere.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050920)

Unsubstantiated scaremongering sensationalist bollocks.

7 months into he pandemic we haven’t yet reached 1 million deaths.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050922)

Haha. And most of the world had to lock down at some point or other to achieve that - which I'm sure you'll agree means the last 7 months aren't comparable with the situation Old Boy describes.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=4687

Stumbled across an old post of yours earlier. Hasn't aged very well has it, seeing as we are now in the second wave?

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050925)

Sorry Meg,

Gloat all you want But it is a tad premature, no surprise to you I’m sure. I’ll chow down on humble pie just fine, But I’ll take it when we have 1,100 deaths per day , not when we have 27.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050933)

Somewhere between 4 and 5 presumably. As test, trace, isolate has broken down under demand pressure there’s no way of knowing with any certainty if we are closer to 5 than 4.

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36050960)

Here we go again. :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050962)

No delivery slots for the major ones where I am. Under the “Sweden” approach these are the idiots we’d be asking to voluntarily be sensible. Never happening in a million years.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050962)

No delivery slots for the major ones where I am. Under the “Sweden” approach these are the idiots we’d be asking to voluntarily be sensible. Never happening in a million years.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050964)

If you're looking for slots then surely you're in no position to call others idiots.

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36050961)

Almost definitely as a huge supermarket in our city unamed had massive queues yesterday.....

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050965)

Perhaps he normally shops online?

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050964)

If you're looking for slots then surely you're in no position to call others idiots.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050968)

I’ve only heard anecdotally from someone who routinely shops online.

I shop in person but we don’t have a Waitrose though so it’s more downmarket than others on here.

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050959)

I’d say increased measures are appropriate given we have near exponential growth and test, trace, isolate has failed.

I’ve been banging on all summer about the inevitability of further restrictions if test, trace, isolate fails so this should really be a surprise to no-one who reads this thread. We need to know who has it, where they are and who is at risk from catching it from them. Without that information we are fire fighting in the dark.

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36050972)

Went to Costco (Southampton) on Saturday and the queue for tills was huge and silly people panic buying (especially water - what's wrong with tap). And report on BBC suggests panic buying of Christmas birds. There are some real idiots around.

---
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ekly-file.xlsx
--
Some interesting data in here. These are the newer adjusted figures, the old counts had no limit on time after positive test to death (you could die years after test and still count as Covid), the limit is now 28 days but you could still get hit by a bus on day 27 and still counts as Covid death.
If you look at the age/condition tab - the number of deaths for the under 60's with no underlying condition to date of report is still around 300. Even with the older ones added the total is around 1,400.

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36050976)

Well all know that wont happen, they need to control the idiot panicers.

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36050979)

How big a family is it that needs 80 rolls of toilet paper?
Doesn't help when the media include misleading pictures. Eg A picture of items on special offer and not from the main area for toilet paper.

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36050982)

I'm gonna hold it in and use the toilets at work :D

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36050980)

Hard to police, how do you separate the panicer from someone buying for vulnerable others and themselves?
We buy rice in large quantities (10kg sacks) as we use rice often and it's cheaper that way. I have 10kg basmati, 10kg sticky and 5 kg Thai that will last a good while but will get used within a year. Is that panic/hoarding? I buy at Costco so get trays of cans as that's how it's sold, panic or just being wise to get good unit price?

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If you use Costco then you buy in 48's or so. But you only do it every couple/few months.

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36050976)

Nuff said.

IF I win the lottery jackpot, I'll probably be a millionaire.



Well all know that wont happen, they need to control the idiot panicers.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050985)

Here we go the science of IF rears it's head once again.

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36050976)

Nuff said.

IF I win the lottery jackpot, I'll probably be a millionaire.



Well all know that wont happen, they need to control the idiot panicers.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050985)

Here we go the science of IF rears it's head once again.

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050990)

It’s more like (imho) if you wander across a busy A-road with your eyes tight shut, you’d probably get run over,

It’s "possibility" versus "probability" - it’s possible you won’t get hit, but it’s probable you will...

They’re saying if we don’t take the appropriate measures, it’s probable the infection figures will escalate rapidly, based on the information we have at this time - it’s possible they won’t (but unlikely).

Basic Risk Assessment, Management, and Mitigation.

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You’re confusing Risk Assessment and Management with "complete guesswork" - they’re completely different...

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36050986)

But . . but . . there are hundreds of experts well versed in the art of 'if, maybe, could, up to, possibly' etc etc

Making good money at it too :D

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050990)

it’s probable the infection figures will escalate rapidly

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36050980)

Hard to police, how do you separate the panicer from someone buying for vulnerable others and themselves?
We buy rice in large quantities (10kg sacks) as we use rice often and it's cheaper that way. I have 10kg basmati, 10kg sticky and 5 kg Thai that will last a good while but will get used within a year. Is that panic/hoarding? I buy at Costco so get trays of cans as that's how it's sold, panic or just being wise to get good unit price?

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If you use Costco then you buy in 48's or so. But you only do it every couple/few months.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050995)

but what IF the testing process and the tests are causing the issue.

https://youtu.be/Ch7wze46md0

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36050997)

Is there space for Old Boy on the end of that straw?

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050998)

Not my view, the view of an exChieF science advisor. I’m not qualified to argue with him, I doubt you are either.

He simply requests to see the evidence the current Chief advisor is basing his decisions on, not unreasonable

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36050990)

It’s more like (imho) if you wander across a busy A-road with your eyes tight shut, you’d probably get run over,

It’s "possibility" versus "probability" - it’s possible you won’t get hit, but it’s probable you will...

They’re saying if we don’t take the appropriate measures, it’s probable the infection figures will escalate rapidly, based on the information we have at this time - it’s possible they won’t (but unlikely).

Basic Risk Assessment, Management, and Mitigation.

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You’re confusing Risk Assessment and Management with "complete guesswork" - they’re completely different...

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36051000)

If the false positive rate is that high I’m amazed that other countries have managed to record zero and single digit rises in a single day. It’d surely be almost impossible?

If we are relying on qualifications to debate on the current affairs section of Cable Forum we may as well shut up shop then. However in the absence of such a requirement I’ll post my scepticism under being “fair comment”.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36051003)

Here, is another straw, that appears to correlate with the view of the exChief Science advisor note: not a quack/conspiracy site.

https://www.hdruk.ac.uk/projects/false-positives/

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36051005)

It’s a nice theory. But nowhere does it suggest that a hypothetical poorly performing test would by itself create exponential, or near exponential, growth in a society that isn’t experiencing more positive cases of Covid-19.

Surely the same trends would be seen in Italy, Sweden, China, New Zealand or other cases with supposedly “low” prevalence of the virus. Yet they are not. Unless of course we are back at Britain being a special case for (insert reason unknown).

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36050932)

At which point in the five point plan are we at?

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36051007)

Newsflash from the chief medical officers from the four nations of the UK. The level should be upgraded from 3 to 4.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36051009)

well that'll make them look better.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36051009)

well that'll make them look better.

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36050992)

You're confusing bullshit management with horse shit -they're completely different.

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yea but if if and maybe are quadrupled then we may see possibly emerging according to the scientists.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36051007)

Newsflash from the chief medical officers from the four nations of the UK. The level should be upgraded from 3 to 4.

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36051017)

According the governments own traffic Light system, then no Extra Restrictions should be imposed until we reach level 5

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36051017)

According the governments own traffic Light system, then no Extra Restrictions should be imposed until we reach level 5

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36051013)

Good grief l never knew you were that cynical papa.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36051025)

Welcome back to the forum, Den. ;)

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36051050)

What the . . . ???

So they're now saying you can be infected even if you test negative? . . . and although you're infected it's not contagious?
Throw that little conundrum into your daily spread sheet calculations then, see how accurate you can guesstimate it now.

Sorry, but the more I see from these cretins, the less I believe :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36051049)

I have a solution to deal with those people who can't wear or refuse to wear a mask.

Simply make mask only carriages, and carriages that are mask free, that way they can infect themselves.

In shops have hours for those no mask wears, and all other times no mask no entry no exception.

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36051050)

What the . . . ???



So they're now saying you can be infected even if you test negative? . . . and although you're infected it's not contagious?
Throw that little conundrum into your daily spread sheet calculations then, see how accurate you can guesstimate it now.

Sorry, but the more I see from these cretins, the less I believe :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36051055)

Link
So there's a gap between exposure and the contagious phases.

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36051056)

All that says to me, is that someone who tested negative yesterday, could be spreading the disease tomorrow blissfully unaware they would now test positive.

Waste of time, money, effort :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36051054)

or wear your own and not keep worrying about other people.

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36051062)

Let's get something sorted here . . .

You should only go for a test if you display symptoms . . . right?



Now according to that quote above - from medical experts no less - by the time you go for a test you could have been spreading it around for a couple of days . . right?

Therefore everybody who tests positive should give detailed information about everywhere they've been, and everyone they've had contact with for the last 3 days . . do they? . . can they?