Re: Coronavirus
 

FFS, Project Fear & Paranoia in full swing again. :rolleyes:

Re: Coronavirus
 

Sounds like it.


But it does make sense to be cautious if you're not sure. It's new in SA and there may not have been enough time to know if it's going to cause a rise in hospitalisations yet. But one of the SA medical chiefs says that the symptoms are mild - she has said they aren't seeing the loss of taste/smell, only a slight cough, muscle/headache in people who are testing positive. If that is the extent of it, how much does it matter how transmissible it is or how much it evades previous immunity.



We don't even really know where it came from, where already has it, and if we have more of it but people have not got the usual symptoms and thought to get a test.


I know it's not in yet, but I've just been shopping, hardly anyone was wearing a mask in the shops (but yes, it's not in yet, and they weren't busy) and no-one on PT was (from the buses I saw) where it's still been basically suggested all the time. It will be interesting to see how this changes.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Genuine question.

If you test positive on a Lat flow, and then decide to double check on either a 2nd Lat flow or PCR and test positive again. Is that recorded as 2no. Positive tests? Or do the ONS scrub the second test?

Re: Coronavirus
 

They record the first positive test. People testing positive after the 1st one don't count again.


But I don't think a positive LFT really counts as a positive test until it's been confirmed by PCR. If you test positive on a LFT presumably it tells you to book a PCR test.

---------- Post added at 20:04 ---------- Previous post was at 19:57 ----------

One thing which is interesting about the announcement (which I still think he couldn't have been less clear on in some parts) is the whole isolation change.


So, understandably now anyone who's a close contact of a new variant case has to isolate, even if they're vaccinated. Makes sense if we don't know how the vaccine works yet. But this is easier said than done now venues don't need QR codes or to take contact details of people. No-one's going to know who was on the number 32 bus with them (and it would be a bit tricky getting the driver to log contact details of all passengers or even those who can't scan a QR code). So if you're called for contact tracing then you might be able to say where you were and what time but they won't know who else was there, unless you know them.



Even saying face masks in shops - what's a shop anyway? What about places like Greggs or Subway where they have areas for eat in and takeaway, are they retail or hospitality? When is it becoming mandatory (presumably this will still need to be put before Parliament, though you can expect that will be a formality, Hoyle won't be too happy that law's been announced to the country before the MPs)?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, or the full quote.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/87949404.cms

Re: Coronavirus
 

I was trying to find it from somewhere more reputable, maybe from what she said herself.


But basically, if (and it's a massive if) that's all it is, on the face of it, it will probably be nothing to worry about.


She also said in the same quote - from recollection - that it is mainly younger people who are presenting with it anyway.


It still makes sense to be cautious whilst the facts are looked into.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Not an expert but wouldn't a mild version of COVID be a good thing in that it boosts immunity without much death and also be a sign things it's getting less serious?

Still, best make sure. I think it's smart to be careful for a few weeks until we see the outcome.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yes, if the virus is more mild we need to worry about it less. We don't care about colds and some coronaviruses cause colds, they may well have mutated from something more severe. SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible and less severe than the original SARS which didn't spread well but which few survived.



It is key for a virus to not kill its host, and to spread to others, and one of the best ways for it to do this is to be mild symptom wise and highly transmissible.


This virus has around 30 mutations from wild type and most of them have been seen before. But whilst we know how they work on other variants they might not work the same together. Some mutations may even render it useless because the spike protein is deformed too much to bind to cells. It may be that having a mutation which makes vaccine resistance in itself and one with increased transmissibility in itself when put together don't do that. This is why they need to look into this, see what the actual illness is, how it progresses after a few weeks, how the vaccines respond etc etc.



We need to be sure of the facts but:
- if this mutation can swerve all immunity and is transmissible enough to outcompete Delta and the course of the illness is unchanged or more severe we have a big problem. None of the infection from previous will mean anything, none of the vaccines we have given out will mean anything, it will leave basically everyone susceptible to hospitalisation or death from covid again, basically the same as 2020 but with a virus which gets around quicker.
- if it can swerve immunity and is more transmissible than Delta but doesn't make people ill then this is probably ideal. It will outcompete the more severe Delta variant which means that yes people will get ill but none of them will get badly ill. Delta will disappear meaning that most people will get the covid immunity with no severe illness.


And let's not also forget any immunity defeating is likely to be partial.

Re: Coronavirus
 

That's the case in England. In Wales, Scotland and NI they only count positive PCRs.

In England it does. But if you get a positive LFT followed by a negative PCR, you are removed from the count.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data

Note that false-positive LFTs are rare.

Re: Coronavirus
 

False negative LFTs are more concerning though.


But on another note, let's not forget what they both measure. Both tests fundamentally work the same way, but a PCR is more precise.



It is looking for a match with a gene sequence from the virus.



If that gene sequence is present in the sample it will return positive (within cycle count).


This means that the virus has been found in the sample. It doesn't mean the virus is replicating in the person the sample was taken from, and it doesn't mean the person is contagious.


I seem to recall seeing a few weeks back there was a new covid test which could be used on saliva which could detect that. Potentially a lot more useful...


(Especially given the inventor of the PCR test said exactly this)

Re: Coronavirus
 

Optimism, hopeless optimism.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Quite. I just demonstrates these measures are just to show the government is doing something.

Most thinking people know that masks are next to useless.

---------- Post added at 02:09 ---------- Previous post was at 02:07 ----------

And from you, pessimism, hopeless pessimism.

Any update on when the end of the world will be upon us?

Re: Coronavirus
 

Any scientific evidence, OB or are you just spouting your usual covid speculation?

It's been known for some considerable time that the Beta variant destroys vaccine efficacy and reinfects people infected in previous waves (Manaus, Brazil).

The biggest fear is that a variant takes the qualities of Beta, and transmission rates of Delta. And here we are. Inevitably.

I hope you didn't pay a desposit for the CF Christmas Party. :)

---------- Post added at 03:14 ---------- Previous post was at 02:31 ----------

A tedious, but not unexpected, analysis - nobody expects the Government to sit on their hands over a weekend or to expect MPs to fly back in from their second jobs, for some uncontroversial secondary legislation to pass on travel restrictions.

Secondary legislation is designed in this way, with clearly defined processes under the affirmative and negative procedures whereby the Secretary of State can sign into law legislation as required. Your ignorance of this fact is somewhat irregular, given almost all of the Covid restrictions to date have operated in the same manner.

Re: Coronavirus
 

interesting briefing last night from bozo and the two sales men, booster jab this booster jab that booster jab the other, with lots of scientific words like could/maybe/if/ possibly....., clearly big pharma is running the country like a branch of boots the chemist ,pop in get a jab make us rich.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Next to useless at what?