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Some good but not unexpected news - Oxford trial has resumed ;)
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...fects-12069919 |
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We should pay young people who catch Coronavirus a reward for doing so. Herd immunity, after all...
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It wasn’t a serious suggestion. We all, or almost all, know herd immunity is a bad idea and doesn’t protect the economy.
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There's an interesting debate brewing about whether or not we are turning into a "Stasi state". https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/lord-s...herings-fines/ In the discussion, it was pointed out that Sweden with no lock down and Spain (et al) with stringent lockdown was better off in statistics terms than Spain. The discussion held out the prospect of Covid Marshals peering through windows to check on how many people they could see! Only half-ridiculous in the wider picture. |
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Other opinions are available but he doesn’t come across as some quack that the likes of Fox News would usually wheel in. https://youtu.be/Su0wMysBYPM |
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The proof will be in the pudding I suppose, not long til we find out. Cases rising and it's not simply due to testing rising according to Whitty. Maybe it's just a blip. Hopefully. Other countries are in a second wave and Israel is into a second lockdown. Why will it be different for us? |
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Oxford Uni Professor of Evidence Based Medicine @carlheneghan recommends watching this video.
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Fer gawds sake, don't open the can of worms that is "manipulated graphs and selectively compared sets of data"
People will be accusing the media of bias next :D |
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:D:D |
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Masks to be a legal requirement to enter shops and indoor public areas in Wales as of tomorrow. The Labour-led Welsh assembly has been dragging its feet over this for several weeks.
And, as expected, local forums are filled to the brim with anti-maskers spouting the crazy conspiracy theories they have accepted as fact from "internet sources". Forum moderators are stripping their posts and banning those that repost after warnings, but they just push another of their ilk to post the same idiocy. |
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I lived in West Berlin for 3 years at the height of the Cold War, and saw what a "Stasi state" was - use of terms like this in the article just use emotive hyperbolic statements to inflame passion and cause anger, thus making rational debate about real issues difficult. |
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All the restrictions should be considered the same as if there was a severe storm going on. People cover themselves up in cold or bad weather, so what is the real problem? People find themselves locked in by bad weather, eg "Beast from the East" of 2018, so again what is the real difference? It may be lasting long, but that is all. The longer people flaunt the restrictions, the longer the whole thing will go on for.
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Has anyone linked this discussion point yet? I think it's rather interesting: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...y-researchers/
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Completely unproven at this point, of course, but yet another good reason to wear a mask. |
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Lockdowns are extremely damaging in so many ways, so it is sensible of the PM to rule out another one. |
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Interesting that evidence that is out there you ignore if it doesn't suit your agenda. The experience of Sweden, with its minimal emergency measures, is particularly interesting in this regard. |
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Is that Sweden where they closed the high schools and everyone that can work from home is working from home? Sweden that is also taking a hit on GDP? All the data points towards people adhering in some respect to scientific recommendations. Behaviour that your average "I know better than scientists" Brit moron would be incapable of doing voluntarily. You're once again living in a fantasy world based on selective use of information. The good news is it's impossible for us to go down the Sweden route without overwhelming the NHS, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and people will not stand for it. The capitalist wet dream of normal isn't ever coming back. |
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I'm no fan of lockdowns due to the negative economic and social impact they have. But given the situation in UK hospitals, which presumably Sweden didn't have, we had no choice. |
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So if anti-body test come in negative doesn’t mean you haven’t already had and combatted the virus. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/2018...-help-protect/ |
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Hundreds are now testing positive every day in the 'at risk' age groups. Hospitalisations are creeping up. Test, trace, isolate is falling apart at the seams and the Government are preparing for telling 4.6 million people (customers?) to shield for an almost indefinite period of time. |
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Thank you Mr Doom & Gloom, you must be a real blast at parties. :erm:
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I mean it makes sense really. It might also explain why numbers were so high in the beginning and have dropped considerably. It would also explain why hospitalisation/death rates haven't gone up as much as recent infection rates. But still, it's completely unproven at this point. Science, innit. Quote:
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Differences between Primary and Secondary Immune Response Quote:
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If there was cause for optimism I’d share it. :D
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T-cell immunity is a well researched and published scientific fact, and although more research needs to be done on the levels of immunity to COVID 19, as it is new, the has been lots of research done with other novel Corona-viruses such as SARS and MERS In relation to COVID article states Quote:
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On the question of re-infection, the missing link in understanding what's actually happening is as follows:
The articles I've read do not state whether or not the re-infected person developed symptoms and became ill. I can certainly imagine a person becoming re-infected, testing positive, but the immune system having dealt with the infection. Anyone know the situation there? |
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I guess it's only 'evidence' if it says what you want it to say. |
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On social media I tend not to read the comments. Here I have to and it's remarkably similar to social media..;)
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If you really believe in this nonsense view, jfman, it is pointless continuing this debate with you. ---------- Post added at 09:06 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ---------- Quote:
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Most interestingly is that 19 out of 37 unexposed individuals also showed a response. The only caveats are that the sample sizes are small and geographically localised in Singapore. Also, there is no further study of T-cell responses and clinical outcomes but all in all, things look hopeful... EDIT - here's the paper for lovers of immunology and enjoy flow cytometry... - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z |
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I don't fully understand it but I think the immune system can do two things: stop an infection before it even takes, fight it after it does. The other thing though is sometimes having had an infection or even having had a vaccine you can randomly simply not develop antibodies against it. It's not common but it does happen. |
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Wishful thinking in my book. ---------- Post added at 09:17 ---------- Previous post was at 09:14 ---------- Quote:
I do agree however that there’s little value in continuing a debate with you on the topic if you persist in following wishful thinking above science. The virus doesn’t care for your politics, your stiff upper lip or English exceptionalism. We’re playing by the same rules as everyone else - all that’s happening is some are skewing the narrative, undermining science, people are less adherent to rules and this situation goes on for longer - hitting health and the economy. I don’t mind one of those being hit because it’s in dire need of rebalancing anyway, and the virus presents a once in as generation opportunity - but I do care about the health angle. |
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Let's get one thing clear. I am certainly not saying there won't be a second wave. I have merely said that if it is true that if the late lockdown resulted in our reaching the same peak of the virus that we would have reached anyway, we may avoid a second wave anywhere near as extreme as the first one. That makes sense. However, equally, it may not be so, and in fact although there was no lockdown with the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, there was still a devastating second wave. I have been consistent in saying that this virus is going nowhere, and if we have not yet reached herd immunity, it will be back, lockdowns or no lockdowns. Your solution is to lock us all up and hide ourselves away. For years! What kind of nonsense is that? If you want to lock yourself up, be my guest! [EDIT] Oh, so now you are not saying that we should lock down until a vaccine is found! I'm glad we've sorted that out. So, what is your solution to this problem, jfman? If you are not going for the herd immunity solution and you are not going for a long lockdown, then what are you saying? |
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Peer-reviewed papers are "evidence", which this is not - it’s one Prof of Stats views, not backed up by any other papers/research. From the Bristol Uni web-page Quote:
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True, the two articles that were produced did not come from me because someone beat me to it, but it was the second of those articles I was referring to in my original post. |
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I think we've fundamentally got to the heart of the problem - you simply read what you want and ignore context, fact and reality to suit your agenda to fully reopen the economy regardless of the impact on human life. If I trawled the internet seeking to find spurious evidence I could find 'evidence' for almost anything. It doesn't make those positions reality no matter how much you wish them to be. The response to the virus has to be grounded in science and reality. Good luck in the second wave Old Boy. I hope the stock exchange doesn't fall too much. ---------- Post added at 10:05 ---------- Previous post was at 10:04 ---------- Quote:
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So why don't we start over. What are you actually suggesting the government should do that it's not already doing? Popcorn's at the ready... ---------- Post added at 10:19 ---------- Previous post was at 10:17 ---------- Quote:
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The way I see it, there's two schools of thought on where we "are" with the spread of the virus.
If one is right and we're over the worst, then additionl lockdowns/restrictions will cause some loss to the economy. If the other is right and we don't put measures in place, it'll cause loss of life. I'll take the opinion that life is more valuable than money any day of the week and err on the side of caution every single time. |
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Via the "Search this Thread" option.
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However, I don't think people (and by people, I mean the red-tops that reported on the paper), actually read the summary fully - it states Quote:
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https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1600076990 |
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Interesting that when the trial of vaccine was paused it was "front page news" but the resumption was much less trumpeted. And the pause was just normal process for the situation.
Archery GB has said that with social distancing we can continue to shoot. We are only outdoor at the moment so enjoying the good weather, not so much fun when it's colder and wet and darker earlier - likely to get pneumonia and all the hassles from that. I don't like masks at all but will wear in shops etc more to get in but also to help others around me some of whom need protection but many just helps them feel safe. It's more a pain that some of the shops I want to visit only allow visits by appointment. |
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If you were right we would ease restrictions and numbers wouldn't rise. That's not the reality on the ground and now we've Government threatening a second lockdown unless people adhere to the new restrictions. |
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Then again there's post #5071. Quote:
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A concerning situation especially with the rise in the R-rate and students starting at university.
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From your post #4638 Quote:
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This is a completely seperate point from what Old Boy has made so I refuse to get bogged down in it as you steer the conversation away from the pertinent points at hand. We’re staring down the barrel off a second lockdown and you’re arguing points I made months ago.
The second point relates to getting numbers to, or close to, zero pursuing an elimination strategy. It should not be read as suggesting lockdown until a vaccine. Nowhere will you find me advocating a lockdown until a vaccine as Old Boy claimed. |
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So, this is now affecting me personally.
My son has develpoed a cough. Hopefully nothing serious but I'm having to keep him off of school. NHS told us to get him tested. There are no tests available. None. We're in Liverpool, we've been directed to a test centre in Doncaster. The Doncaster test centre has no tests available until September 26th. What a shambles. |
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Also can you order a home test or are those all taken?
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Luckily aside from a bit of a cough, he's not bothered, but doesn't bode well given he's been back at school for a whole 6 days. A couple of people at the school have remarked that this always happens when the kids go back, they always get ill and classrooms are a nightmare for sickness - which I agree with, but my worry is that this just goes to show that if COVID does hit a school, it'll run right through it. |
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I wonder if people's inability to get a test could be linked to this report in The Guardian yesterday. Not much point in giving tests if they can't get processed?
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And it's getting worse: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/corona...d-19-symptoms/
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Monday 14 September 2020, 3:36pm
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Someone should be sacked over this whole ordeal.
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If anyone gets fired it'll be some lacky anyway.
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Thanks, OLD BOY. Relatively sure it's just a regular cough, no other symptoms but we'll just wait and see.
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Track & Trace doesn't work if you can't test people. |
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Ah yes, I forgot you have subscribed to the paranoia.
The very small minority who get really ill will end up in hospital, where they can be treated properly, and as part of that, it will be verified if its down to CV19. The vast majority of people will get a few symptoms, perhaps feel a little ill, and shake it off. In fact, your own previous posts were telling us how we are all likely getting immune to it without even knowing. Its amazing how many members of this forum would manage to do so much better, after the fact of course. |
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As far as I can see the Government has been increasing the capacity for processing tests ever since the pandemic started. There were not enough NHS labs in existance and, IMHO, it would not have been possible to build all the new facilities the NHS would have needed in the time given so going to the private sector was the only way possible. Emergency plannig could never be expected to be able to cope with such an unprecidented demand either at NHS or in the private sector
Can't find a singe neat link covering the increases of Laboritory capacity but here are just a few. https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/n...-testing-labs/ https://www.rcpath.org/uploads/asset...9-Testing-NHS- Laboratories.pdfhttps://www.medicaldevice-network.com/comment/lighthouse-labs-uk-covid-19-testing/ |
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Have you got sacked everytime someone who knows not very much decides to criticise your work? |
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If the selfish brigade who have absolutely no symptoms stop taking up valuable testing, designed for people who really do have symptoms, then maybe, just maybe, more places would become available for those in need of a test.
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The Government are and should be held to account on the results of what they produce. The logical conclusion of your argument that since we're not in charge we cannot judge is an argument to never criticising the Government at all. I somehow doubt that this understanding would be extended by you to anything else and just seems to be involved in this one instance but you don't like it. Forgive me if I am wrong and you've never criticised anyone in a position of authority you don't have? And even when we do actually know something about what they're doing. Such as their NHS app that was never going to work and then turned out not to work we're still not allowed to criticise the Government. |
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Still we will have 10 million tests a day by February. Hopefully they won’t get stuck at Calais as we send them to Germany for lab capacity. |
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My East European boiler service man spent about 20 minutes this morning telling me all about how Covid is a Jewish conspiracy. It’s a bit of a nuisance, I have quite an old wood pellet (biomass) boiler and there are very few people qualified to service it. So I just nodded and smiled and waited for him to go away.
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Hundreds of thousands of people have died of many things, billions have not. |
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If random people were just getting tested, without symptoms, they’d be statistically more likely to test negative. The reality is the virus is more prevalent in society. This will further increase demand for testing in winter as the second wave takes hold, and other ailments that cause similar symptoms spread. If we lose control this ends one way. They better sort it, and fast. |
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Huawei.
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