Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

So, we are currently part of the EU which is a WTO member. When we leave the EU, we become a WTO member in our own right.
If we leave the EU without a deal (aka "clean break", "hard Brexit") then we trade on WTO terms and have to treat every WTO member the same hence talk of delays.

That implies no WTO member can make a separate trade deal with any other country.

It also assumes trade deals have not already been brokered elsewhere and just awaiting Brexit to be signed.

Damien

31-07-2018 22:40

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35957525)

That implies no WTO member can make a separate trade deal with any other country.

It also assumes trade deals have not already been brokered elsewhere and just awaiting Brexit to be signed.

Trade agreements are considered an exception to WTO most-favoured-nation rules (there are a few others too).

pip08456

01-08-2018 00:01

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957526)

Trade agreements are considered an exception to WTO most-favoured-nation rules (there are a few others too).

I already knew that. Andrew likes his sweeping statements though.

Sephiroth

01-08-2018 07:11

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

It seems to me that we (Guvmin) have pursued a special deal policy (aka cherry picking) when all we really need is a Canada deal which they have offered. Take that and get on with it.

Damien

01-08-2018 08:42

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

The one question I would of just nodding though imports should we get no deal is that we would effectively put our tariffs at 0% for the EU and so would that mean we have to do the same for everyone else? That would be pretty drastic if so.

Mr K	01-08-2018 10:02

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35957549)

Don't worry about it Damien, it's all in hand and is being carefully thought through, I should think. The Govt. just doesn't make it up as they go along you know ? :rolleyes:

I sense a change in opinion in the last few weeks as the public realises the practical implications. i.e. this might actually affect them (badly).

Sephiroth

01-08-2018 10:38

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35957554)

<SNIP>

I sense a change in opinion in the last few weeks as the public realises the practical implications. i.e. this might actually affect them (badly).

Agreed. Look at me.

Mick	01-08-2018 11:08

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35957554)

Your senses are off by a lot. The public sees through the scaremongering bullshit, AKA Project Fear 2.1. They saw through the bollocks the first time, job losses, recession blah blah, following right after a leave vote and they’re seeing right through this fear, version 2.1

Mr K	01-08-2018 11:18

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35957565)

Agreed. Look at me.

You are indeed a Brexit rarity, someone who changes their position. Given that the info given by both sides at the time of the referendum was very poor that's fair enough as the real facts and effects become known.

Part of the problem is people with entrenched positions, who daren't change for fear of losing face, or admitting they'd been 'hoodwinked' . The politicians involved are only thinking about their careers - utter crap the lot of them, on all sides. They have all let the country down badly. Generations to come will never forgive them, but will be less hard the electorate that were conned.

Pierre

01-08-2018 11:45

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35957519)

Bit more information here for those wishing to grow their understanding of how Dover might be impacted. This comes from impact reports from the local (Conservative) authorities there.

Worryingly, the Government is trying to hide this preparation from voters.

https://news.sky.com/story/13-mile-l...eveal-11454991

The one thing all these articles on the disaster that brexit will be is that all contain the following words:

Could, May, Might, Should, Anticipate, Potentially....................................... ....

Carth

01-08-2018 12:36

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35957571)

:clap:

now what was that recent Government initiative about fake news? :D

1andrew1

01-08-2018 13:53

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35957571)

Not sure what your point is. No one knows what deal the Government will get so all that anyone can do is point out what will happen depending on the type of deal or absence of one. You have to deal with uncertainty in business and scenario planning such as those by the councils in Kent are common.

papa smurf

01-08-2018 14:09

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35957590)

Not sure what your point is. No one knows what deal the Government will get so all that anyone can do is point out what will happen depending on the type of deal or absence of one. You have to deal with uncertainty in business and scenario planning such as those by the councils in Kent are common.

:rofl::rofl::rofl:
Spat my tea out when i read that .

heero_yuy

01-08-2018 14:22

Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:

Quote from Politico:

The U.K. financial services sector could suffer as few as 5,000 job losses as a result of Brexit, according to a new estimate by the City of London Corporation — far lower than the industry had initially feared.

The figures come from an internal City report, to be released in September. In an interview with POLITICO, Lord Mayor of the City of London Charles Bowman said the analysis estimates that between 5,000 and 13,000 jobs will have gone by the U.K.’s leaving date of March 30 next year.

That is far lower than most previous estimates. In a widely cited report published in 2016, Oliver Wyman estimated that industry job losses could eventually be as high as 75,000 with banks and other institutions forced to move large numbers of staff to locations in the EU27. Xavier Rolet, the former chief executive of the London Stock Exchange, predicted job losses of over 200,000. But the Bank of England has estimated Day One job losses of around 10,000 in the case of a hard Brexit.

Another false prediction by project fear, joining the trash heap of their other predictions.

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