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... and now we have a child sent home from school for 2 weeks after a classmate tested positive. :(
Thankfully school distributed chromebooks to her year yesterday so she won’t miss anything. :D. I’m not sure which she’s more cross about ... |
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It certainly didn't in Calderdale. |
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It's below the news radar at the moment but if the daughter has spread it to any significant extent while at school, asymptomatic and infectious it's all going to kick off big time. |
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My understanding is that 50 children from the high school have now been sent home for 14 days because of this. |
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/125892...rus-watchlist/ |
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The problem with too many lockdowns is people will just snap and ignore it at some point.
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...690-1/fulltext |
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https://fullfact.org/health/what-did...e-broken-them/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ied-boyfriend/ |
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It's not so much any gatherings, but people that have been making contact with others BEFORE that gathering. This virus doesn't sit around for months, and only reappear at a gathering. There has to be a chain of transmission going on. If a group of people who have been isolating one way or another, get together, there should be little or no risk. The problem comes from somebody who hasn't been isolating, possibly for legitimate reasons, eg essential worker. |
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Coronavirus: Tests 'could be picking up dead virus'
Most people are infectious only for about a week, but could test positive weeks afterwards. Researchers say this could be leading to an over-estimate of the current scale of the pandemic. But some experts say it is uncertain how a reliable test can be produced that doesn't risk missing cases. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54000629 |
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If the scientists are correct and that our later national lockdown made little impact on the virus (in that the peak we reached would have been virtually the same had we not done so), then there will be no second wave here that will have an unacceptable impact on the NHS. And when will it dawn on people that the reason the number of infections are still going up again has rather something to do with the fact that we are testing more? The number of hospital admissions and the number of deaths recorded both remain very low. |
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THIS article from three months ago suggests a similar theory.
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There's various theories. Not clear to me which one is most likely. The number of deaths seems to be staying low, either because treatments are getting better or because the vulnerable are shielding.
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Also there might be a weaker strain spreading and/or younger people are getting it at higher rates relative to older people. |
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From public domain information, it seems to me that:
1 Deaths are reduced because treatments have improved 2 Deaths are reduced also because there are fewer hospital admissions 3 Hospital admissions are not rising in proportion to positive cases because it's younger people who are infected - There is no evidence of a weaker strain - Au contraire, the virus is out there for a second wave if we are not careful - I believe older people to be vigilant & careful Until the science can tell us whether antibodies provide sufficient protection and for how long, it's still a pretty dire picture. Into the mix goes a Guvmin that is finding it difficult to balance the need for public health protection and economic health protection. Fr what my opinion is worth, the latter is more dangerous in the long run than the virus (but can't be sure till we know how antibodies behave). On balance, Shit Creek awaits! |
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New stats of requiring positive test within 28 days of death massage the figures. The old way has it’s flaws, I agree, but death occurs later especially where intensive care is involved. They’re not likely to retest them when on the way out, after a positive test, are they!
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Bottom line is, Nobody cares anymore. The threat of further lockdown is an idle threat, they won’t do it.
Local lockdowns/restrictions are a joke as they are just ignored anyway. |
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Colleges and universities aren’t back yet. Many offices are working from home. Herd immunity Whitty says we are at or near the limit of the extent we can ease restrictions. It’s popcorn time for those who can safely observe this social experiment. |
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However, I'm still having difficulty in finding mention of the scientists Old Boy is referring to. This is one professor's data modelling. |
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We’ve had the wave, I haven’t seen anything that suggests a second wave of the same magnitude is coming. Lockdowns (national and local) have been routinely ignored without cases spiking. There have been ups and downs but nothing major. |
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Well the medical establishment seems convinced there will be a second wave. If there isn't we should definitely be considering removing the social distancing measures.
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I'd be shouting "the end is nigh" too if it gave me extra funding ;) |
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We may not get that second wave, or if we do, it may well be minor compared to what Spain and France are experiencing. Presumably, given what was said about the first peak, that's because the virus had done its worst already. Those who locked down earlier are now reaping the cost of that with this second wave. This is why it is far too early to criticise the government for the later lockdown. All some other EU countries have done is to prolong the agony. We may yet see other countries overtaking us in terms of the number Covid deaths. Also bear in mind that each country compiles its figures in a different way. That needs ironing out as well before we start agonising over whether this country got it right. ---------- Post added at 13:46 ---------- Previous post was at 13:42 ---------- Quote:
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Still clinging on to it being different for us on the basis of no evidence whatsoever. When we get the second wave, as it’s now inevitable due to the inadequacy of test, trace, isolate it’ll be just as bad.
We’re simply on delay and not learning the lessons from what we are seeing. This is the latest “multigenerational households”, “it’ll go away in the summer” or similar speculative nonsense. The good news is though the back to the office campaign has died off before it started. |
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As of the 4th September the infection rate in Leeds was 47.9 up from 29.6 the week before. It does look like it's beginning to get away from the authorities best efforts.
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Not you, but I’m sure others will put in a valiant effort. |
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Are the numbers up not due to the fact that thousands more people are being tested?
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But compared to March/April the testing is dramatically higher so 3000 cases is nowhere near as bad now than then when almost every case was a hospitalisation. |
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If we do get a big second wave, it would clarify that the only way to avoid the virus is a permanent lockdown, which no-one in their right minds would support. |
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There’s no evidence that supports your contention that locking down a week, or two, later than other counties prevents a second wave. Unless we developed herd immunity (no laughing at the back!) by our chance as a result of that extra week or two. The good news is a second lockdown, or regional lockdowns to the extent many can’t really tell the difference, are inevitable regardless of what those in denial think. Companies will continue to work from home, and the economy will tank in any case for longer and the rental incomes of property magnates that own the Daily Mail will be done. So every cloud has a silver lining. |
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I don’t think so. Infection rates can go up all they want, the death rate is the key metric. I don’t see death rates getting anywhere near the initial wave. When this whole thing started scientists ( and I posted it in here) said a second wave was unlikely and that it would plateau and would possibly be followed by the odd “ripple“, and I don’t see anything to disagree with that. |
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We are however better at treatments - which kills off the myth that they'd die anyway once and for all - which could improve mortality. Either way, numbers are going up and the demand side of the economy are staying home. |
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Numbers go up, numbers go down, that's life for you.
You really do sound like the paranoia about CV19 has got to you. Despite the best efforts of the Media and Social Networks to convince you otherwise. 1. There is little chance you will catch it. 2. If you do, there is little chance it will do anything more than annoy you. Far more people are dying of other causes than the 'virus'. No one is worried about the Flu now the winter months are coming. Yet you are almost certainly more likely to catch that, and it can be just as fatal, especially in the same high risk groups. |
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Practice social distancing. Wear a mask. Wash your hands. Super simple stuff, but too many people aren't doing it, too many people think they know better, or that it's a scam, or that there's worse things to get. If you want to avoid lockdown after lockdown, get people to do the super simple stuff and fine/arrest those who refuse. |
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I do recognise that on a personal level my risks are extremely low. However that isn’t true of everyone in my social circle, family and friends (or indeed, for a significant amount of purchasing power in the economy). If the herd immunity advocates got their way statistically the chances would be that some of them would catch it with a higher mortality level based on age and underlying health issues. If this was just a flu we are back to the circular conversation where nobody would have noticed. Hospitals wouldn’t have been busier, it’d just be normal, as generally they are equipped to cope with flu every year. Numbers go down because of significant effort and mitigation. They go up without. At £210bn in cost to date, that’s a lot of Government paranoia. Would have been cheaper with a super-injunction, a D-Notice and hoping nobody noticed. |
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This doesn't sound good, not being reported here yet even though it's the UK vaccine.
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One person in 'tens of thousands' has had a suspected adverse reaction . . that may require hospital treatment, and could result in death :rolleyes: Pretty poor attempt at instigating mass panic, but will probably draw the usual crowd in for some hysterical doom laden wittering |
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I’m sure they don’t need experts in the UK to point out the flaws in their article outlined by Carth above.
Good clickbait though. |
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This would explain why other countries that locked down earlier have a second wave now - it is attacking those now who would have got it had it not been for the lockdown. On your second point about social distancing, etc, isn't that what we are doing now? |
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https://www.gov.uk/government/public...fects#contents
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Looking at the new "super simple" rule for groups in England - at request of police.
No groups bigger than 6 out or in. Seems simple but if you have a large family that can make things hard to meet grandparents or others but here is my thought - which is riskier Two large families meeting up exceeding the 6 size or even a group of known participants in a small group (say around 15) A fluid set of people that are mixing and meeting but never in a group bigger than 6. e.g. students going out in the evening. start in one pub as a six group, 3 move off to pub 2 and 3 others now join the first group, and so on. Much more mixing around, hard to track/trace but never breaks the 6 group limit. The first obeys the spirit of the law but breaks the letter, the latter (may) keep the letter of the law but breaks the spirit. |
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Herd immunity is not something man invented. It's nature. You advocate a lockdown until such time as we have a vaccine. You are living in cloud cuckoo land, mate, and you need to get real. As a self stated economist, I despair of the way you look at the figures. You don't seem to have grasped that the more people you test, the higher number of positive results you are going to pick up. That should be obvious to a man like you - basic stuff really. So while it is correct for the media to say that the number of people testing positive is increasing, the reason for this has been ignored. I would have thought you would have picked that up. We have no reliable way of knowing whether the actual number of infected people is rising because we have no stable set of data to measure it against. What we should all be watching is the hospital admission rates. They remain very low, and that should tell you all you need to know. Until that rises significantly, there is no cause for alarm. People should be allowed to get on with their lives now. Vulnerable people should be advised to shield (there should be no compulsion) and care homes should be told to introduce stringent measures to ensure that those in their care are protected. That is what is required. To be clear, a national lockdown is totally unnecessary and would be widely ignored. Enough is enough. |
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Safe, Schmafe. I'm unlikely to take the vaccine because my record of reaction (albeit not life threatening or anything close) to flu vaccines. Nobody's explained this to me but I suspect it's the way my immune system over-reacts to the vaccine.
To put some flesh on this, I have a mild anti-immune condition which seems to be fading but it's lasted some years. What worries me about the Covid vaccine is that it will provoke the anti-immune reaction in my lungs. That's life-threatening. I stress that the above are layman's fears - the doctor hasn't said anything even if you could get past the barbed wire. |
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Furthermore, you're comparing the death/hospitalisation rate to the infection rate. Just because a bunch of people died the first time around doesn't stop the virus spreading the second time around. This kind of attitude is going to cause further spread because you don't think it'a as serious as last time. The virus hasn't eased off, it's just as virulent and deadly as before. We've got better at treating it but that's all. We had 30 deaths yesterday, jumping from single-digits and the highest we've had in a month. That's not a coincidence. Quote:
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No lockdown - they're going to die anyway - has become we had a late lockdown, there were early deaths but it's alright now. Despite the obvious contradiction that many believe we are better at treating complex cases. Again there's no evidence to support that we won't go into a second wave unless we keep present restrictions and likely add to them. Steps the Government are taking from next week. It's speculative nonsense, much like your claim that it won't like high temperatures. ---------- Post added at 10:04 ---------- Previous post was at 10:02 ---------- Quote:
Of course we know the actual numbers are rising - testing has been available for those with symptoms for some weeks now. You can bury your head in the sand, as you have throughout the pandemic, but your 'solutions' neither protect public health or the economy. |
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I don't think you understood my point about the infection rate. My point was that nobody knows at this stage whether or not that is increasing. Obviously, the number of positive tests are increasing, simply because we are carrying out more tests. If we stopped testing, the number would fall again, wouldn't it? Even Trumpy understood that. I am one of those who has been pointing out for a long time now that this virus has not gone anywhere. That's why herd immunity is so important for us to achieve. |
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There's also no evidence to prove/disprove that 60% of the population are or have been asymptomatic.
The only data we have is the amount of tests done (mainly on those with symptoms), those who tested positive, and those hospitalised due to having the virus . . which includes those with other (potentially life threatening) illnesses. |
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(Not directed at OLD BOY specifically) I have seen literally every single one of these arguments in this thread: https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2020/09/2.jpg People need to learn to listen to the experts instead of getting their armchair medical degrees out. |
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We've been listening to experts for years . . . some examples:
Go to work on an egg . . . ooops sorry, eggs are bad for you Saddam has lots of nasty WMD's Diesel engines are best for the environment. Our vehicle emissions are the lowest . . ever Cows are causing global warming Thalidomide is perfectly safe |
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Out of curiosity, have you had adverse reactions to other vaccines at all? I am wondering if you have had reactions to either the flu antigen or another component of the vaccine. If it's the flu antigen, then you would be golden as there is next to no similarity between coronavirus and influenza virus so you wouldn't expect to see a crossover reaction. Of the other flu vaccine components, the biggest risk is egg protein but that's only present in the injected vaccine, not the live nasal one (Flumist and similar) None of the COVID vaccines I can see are grown in eggs. |
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No adverse reactions to other vaccines (I've had several for travel). It's just the auto-immune reaction to Covid vaccine that bothers me, which, from my layman perspective, won't differentiate between flu and Covid vaccines for the purpose of reaction. |
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We also used to think the sun revolved around the earth, or that if you sailed too far you'd fall off it. We changed our views on that, too. Science isn't a one-and-done thing, it's a constantly evolving field with new research being done all the time. It's okay if you get overwhelmed by that and can't keep up with the constantly changing landscape, all you have to do is listen to the expert in that field who's spent decades of their life researching and understanding it. Anything else is the definition of wilful ignorance. |
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The UK government, especially a Tory government, follows the advice of experts only when it's convenient for them to do so.
They didn't follow the advice quickly enough in the beginning and thousands died as a result. They should be held accountable for that. |
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Why are we waiting till Monday for the new limits (6 people) to take force - doesn’t that just mean lots of people will get together over the weekend for the last time before it’s illegal?
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Make your mind up on how you want the Government to act. Either:
A) they should be held accountable for not acting quickly enough B) they're 'suddenly scrambling to increase restrictions again' . . . or are some people acting controversially no matter what the 'Tory' Government do? |
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However, I will say that had the Government acted sooner, they wouldn't have to scramble later. |
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Whitty and Vallance are up with BoJo at 4pm. Should be good value. Last time out BoJo expected Whitty to give him a couple of minutes to prepare for the hacks questions and he didn’t bother.
I wonder if Whitty expands on being at or near the limit, or Vallance on working from home being a perfectly reasonable adjustment. I’d be particularly keen on hearing from the latter, as the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Civil Service, and his views on BoJo trying to set completely arbitrary targets for return to the workplace. Is there a science behind it that isn’t economics? |
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Probably hoping to keep the crowds at the St Ledger. Hancock and Dido Harding both with a keen interest in horse racing donations.
Thankfully the local authority appears to have stepped in. Of course the delay in laying regulations doesn’t mean the Government can’t update its guidance - it’s be unenforceable in law for a period but that doesn’t make it bad advice from a public health perspective. |
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Coronaviruses and influenza viruses are very different beasts. There doesn't seem to be any evidence that flu vaccines affect COVID infections which suggests that the immune system sees these two types as very different things. But hey, we digress... |
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I have a more sympathy for the Government on judging the right balance between restrictions on people's liberties and fighting the spread of the virus and with the timing of those changes. It's a tricky balance to get right and you don't have precise evidence on the impact of any particular change. Their epidemiologists likely give them a good estimate but they then need to judge that against the economy and people's every day lives.
As I said before we're seeing the biggest restrictions on citizens' freedoms since the war. The Government are right to use that power with caution. |
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The same way it knows not to attack people in Europe that socially distance at 1-1.5m instead of 2m The same way it knows not to attack in pubs, but to attack in you home. basically, there are that many different rules for where you are and who you're with at any particular time.....it's a very clever virus indeed. |
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Hancock received political donations. https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rac...cing-1.4280397 Harding is a member of the Jockey Club. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dido_Harding |
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"This is not due to increased testing". Cites Belgium taking rapid, decisive action to giving a reasonable chance of bringing the rates under control. That's alright tho Terry from Twitter who is an anti-vaxxer tells me he's lying and it's a deep state conspiracy. |
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Ah, well that's true. :)
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So it's the joy of sex, sorry, six, from Monday.....:p:
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As long as there's not more than six of you - in England.
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Meanwhile up here in the Calder Valley things carry on as normal, and restrictions and lockdowns are just something that happens to other people.
Indeed I’ll be going to karate next week, there’ll be a room full of approx 18 people, I might go for a drink afterwards in a pub full of 30-40 people. |
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People will still get together regardless, just not "officially". New rules ; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51506729 Worth a read ; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347 |
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Meeting a small number of friends in a busy pub a couple of times a week is neither here nor there. |
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