Cable Forum - Brexit (Old)

My point is that some people are exaggerating the economic strength of the EU when set against ours. Disingenuousness in this debate is polarising and unhelpful.

314m is a come down from 500m.

UK GDP in 2017 2,622 billion US dollars.
EU GDP in 2017 15,300 billion US dollars

EU GDP without UK GDP 12,678 billion US dollars

Nearly five times the UK GDP - I would say that gives them a lot more negotiating power...

heero_yuy

02-03-2019 17:07

Re: Brexit

£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.

1andrew1

02-03-2019 17:10

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35985001)

£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.

Hmm, if that's a pretty effective stick, I'd shudder to see what an ineffective one would give us. :D

Sephiroth

02-03-2019 17:26

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35984999)

…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.

Hugh	02-03-2019 18:17

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35985005)

…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.

Relevance to the original point you raised? - which was

Quote:

some people are exaggerating the economic strength of the EU when set against ours.

They negotiate as a bloc with 5 times the GDP of the UK, which gives them more negotiating power.

jfman

02-03-2019 18:18

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 35985005)

…. of which German GDP was 3,677 billion USD and which, incidentally, is pretty much in proportion to their respective populations.

Which in many respects isn’t considered when it comes to negotiating a trade deal with the EU. Do you want access to bigger markets or smaller ones? Do the bigger markets hold more of the aces in negotiations? Almost always yes.

Does a Japanese car manufacturer care if the buyer is in Berlin or Bratislava? Probably not.

The Common Fisheries Policy is going to look quite cheap compared to the concessions the US will demand.

Hugh	02-03-2019 18:19

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35985001)

£40 billion hole in their budget gives us a pretty effective stick.

Since the net cost of the EU budget is £9 billion, not sure how that equates to a £40 billion hole in their budget?

heero_yuy

02-03-2019 18:25

Re: Brexit

Because they'll still be getting that over two years and won't be giving us anything back. May's already surrendered that. Sold out!

Hugh	02-03-2019 18:30

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35985013)

Because they'll still be getting that over two years and won't be giving us anything back. May's already surrendered that. Sold out!

If we don’t pay, we will have abrogated our agreed treaty - why would any other country trust us to honour future treaty agreements with them?

1andrew1

02-03-2019 19:05

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35985013)

May's already surrendered that. Sold out!

That's what happens when a weaker body negotiates with a stronger one. We need to be realistic and accept that it will be the way of future trade deals when we are dealing with stronger countries and blocs. It's time to put away the "they need us more than we need them" reality and be businesslike and realistic.

Carth

02-03-2019 19:45

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35985014)

If we don’t pay, we will have abrogated our agreed treaty

What happens if we don't pay . . will they kick us out? :D :D :D

Mr K	02-03-2019 19:58

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 35985023)

What happens if we don't pay . . will they kick us out? :D :D :D

They'd sue us and win, and no other country would do any sort of deal with us.

denphone

02-03-2019 20:06

Re: Brexit

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35985026)

They'd sue us and win, and no other country would do any sort of deal with us.

Bad debtors soon get a bad reputation...

1andrew1

03-03-2019 00:51

Re: Brexit

Another nail in the coffin for 29/3.

Quote:

Theresa May will have to delay Brexit even if she gets her exit plan through parliament this month, Michel Barnier has said.
The EU’s chief negotiator said there was now not enough time for the European Union to ratify the withdrawal agreement, even if MPs back the plan in a vote expected to be held on 12 March.
In a joint interview with several European newspapers, Mr Barnier also said the EU was willing to provide further assurances that the backstop will be temporary.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8804381.html

Carth

03-03-2019 02:37

Re: Brexit

"Theresa May will have to delay Brexit even if she gets her exit plan through parliament this month, Michel Barnier has said."

No she doesn't, all she has to do is say "ok I've had enough of the crap you're throwing around, it's no deal, end of"

. . but she won't because she's a remainer

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