Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Maybe he's just seen the opinion polls and the utterly desperate state this nation is in? And then the prospect of Truss, even her Thatcher impersonation is poor.

The 'Boris continuity candidate' says all we need to know about the Tories demise.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Maybe you should learn to be less vague so we know what you are actually trying to say, Hugh!

Margaret Thatcher was the most popular PM since Churchill, but she only got through three elections. If Truss won two on the trot, she would be doing pretty well, particularly as Labour have been out of office for 12 years already.

Mind you, I think Labour will have an uphill battle in trying to win another election in my Grandkids’ lifetimes unless they make substantial changes that sound attractive to the population.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:42 ----------

You wish.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

"If" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there…

The last two Tory PMs lasted less than three years each…

Since the only Tory PM to win more than one election since Thatcher was Cameron (who is as different from Truss as chalk and cheese), and no Tory PM besides Thatcher and Cameron has won more than one Election consecutively, you may being a trifle optimistic…

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

It's not about what I think the best alternative to Truss is, it's what the electorate think. And the polls here point to Starmer. Things might indeed change over the next couple of years but Truss will not inherit an economy in a good state - high borrowing, high inflation, high fuel prices and a high number of strikes. And as she knows only too well, the one thing not high about the economy is its productivity and Brexit is exasperating that.

---------- Post added at 22:57 ---------- Previous post was at 22:54 ----------

Comical Old Boy. A trifle optimistic? Never. Wildly optimistic? Always. :D

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

That's right, it's about what the electorate think, but as you know, the opinions of the electorate can be extremely volatile. You also know that governments are rarely doing well at mid-term.

People don't seem to be clamouring for Starmer from where I stand, they are instead protesting about partygate. The Covid years are still very raw in some people's minds.

A lot can change in one year, let alone two. That's the nature of politics.

---------- Post added at 09:19 ---------- Previous post was at 09:10 ----------

You are right about the economy not being in a good state, and we all know why, don't we? Even if we are not functioning on all cylinders by 2024, if the electorate can see that Liz has put in place the right measures for recovery and they can actually see it taking place - then they compare her with the other lot - well, I think the outcome is obvious.

If she fails, we are probably back to the coalition days. Labour cannot win outright.

Funny you should mention productivity - I was scoffed at for mentioning the British Disease, but even you know that our workforce need to up their game if Britain is to succeed. You've pretty well just said so yourself.

Brexit is only causing problems in the short term. We are in transition. Liz is pledged to scrap the more bureaucratic of the EU Regulations that are hampering business.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Governments are normally at their least popular by mid-term, mainly because their most unpopular policies are implemented first.

The Johnson government failed in the eyes of the electorate not with the implementation of its policies but because of partygate.

---------- Post added at 09:30 ---------- Previous post was at 09:25 ----------

It's all of these things and more. You forgot to mention the railways, for example, with the unions putting their foot down at every sniff of modernisation.

I'm a bit surprised that you questioned me on this, Seph. You must know we can do better.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

I saw this quote relating to who owns the UK wind infra:

Can this be true?

(apologies for off topic but context is relevant)

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Offshore Wind is usually consortiums, Orsted, RWE, Vattenfall, Eon, Scottish Power and SSE are all players in the UK market. They own the turbines and interarray cables, you then have the OFTO's, these own the transmission export cables that carry the electricity from the windarm to the grid connection.

The UK own the seabed they're sat on. The Crown Estate take % for that.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Sorry Old Boy, the Johnson government didn't fail because of partygate, it failed because Boris Johnson is a compulsive liar, he just can't help himself and feels the PM job description should be short and sweet, saying "Do whatever you want". He then surrounded himself with a bunch of back stabbing sycophants who like him are only in it for themselves. No normal people were surprised when it all unraveled for him and the speed it happened.

Trust me when I say this - this current bunch you laughing call Conservatives / a government wouldn't think twice about kicking even you one of their most hardened supporters in the nads if they thought it would give them the advantage, and it's such a shame that you've been sucked in by them.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Sorry, Grim, that’s the myth spread by the lefties. People already knew what Boris was like. They voted him in because they liked the manifesto and believed he could deliver Brexit.

It was Partygate that brought the house down, and if you track the opinion polls, they confirm this. That is the point that his ratings went down.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

The economy is not in a good place currently due to a toxic mix of Brexit, Covid and Energy prices. How much weight we attribute to each factor doubtless differs.

I've never scoffed at anyone for calling out the country's poor productivity but you can't just criticise those outside London for being less productive, and I say that as a Londoner. Solving it has eluded every government in my time although the entry of the country into the European Single Market did see great gains in British companies' productivity as the stronger companies thrived and the weak went under.

---------- Post added at 13:38 ---------- Previous post was at 13:36 ----------

He was unpopular before Partygate due to his perceived dishonesty and croneyism. He only got elected because the choice was him or Corbyn.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

I agree with you about that toxic mix.


It is true that Boris was unpopular with the left. They knew Labour would never get back with him as PM. The rest of us were more concerned with the bigger picture.

But then came the gift of partygate.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

Well no one can say what the situation will be at election time.
However, atm, labour are in front because the conservatives have pressed self destruct.
I sure as hell hope they dont win, but atm, they are favourites to do so.

Re: Sir Keir’s Kerfuffle
 

I’ll have a go at answering this too …

Starmer and his crew can now very easily get elected for the same reason Blair and his crew got elected in 1997 despite the economy being in good health and people generally feeling prosperous and positive about the future.

The Parliamentary Tory Party looked worn out, bereft of ideas and more interested in taking bribes and shagging their mistresses (and each other) than in governing the country.

Boris Johnson won a majority so big at the last election that all the pundits said it would take Labour 2 further elections to overturn it. But ever since then Boris Johnson has acted in bad faith, with utter disdain for those whom he governs. It doesn’t matter if inflation is under control and taxes are low, come the next election; sleaze can lose you the vote and right now the Tories, mostly though not entirely through BJ, are mired in it.

Despite what we all know about mid-term polling, Starmer and Labour do now have a fighting chance of at the very least, creating a hung parliament which no Tory prime minister could control. So much now depends on who takes over the Tories, how Starmer performs and who appears to be waiting in the wings to succeed him.