Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

http://www.theguardian.com/media/201...s-in-past-year

All are in long term decline. Some are going quite cherry than others, but they are all moving in the same direction.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

And again, I make the point, it has taken a century of repeated innovation in the delivery of news and information for our major newspapers to enter "long term" decline, whereas you seem to think that our broadcast TV infrastructure is going to collapse in about a decade, in the face of a technology that does not, and has no roadmap towards, universal availability.

Your arguments simply don't stack up, which is why all you've been able to do throughout this thread is insist "something will turn up".

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Could you pick the winning numbers for Saturdays lotto for me please.....:rolleyes:

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Lotto numbers are a product of random chance. Developments in the entertainment industry have a level of predictability due to precedent, economics and technology - which has been stated in this thread repeatedly. Do try to keep up. ;)

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

And TV was going to kill cinema, and watching videos at home was going to kill cinema - never happened (some dips, yes, but cinema had a resurgence afterwards).

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

For all sorts of reasons, partly because cinema offers an immersive experience you can't easily match at home, and partly because the distribution model allows studios to recoup the enormous investment required to make a blockbuster film.

This is a salutary tale for the nascent VOD industry - broadcast distribution allows easy access to a larger audience and simultaneous viewing that can, if the product is good, promote further growth in viewing figures. The Night Manager increased its reach as the series went on, for this reason. The very model of VOD delivery makes this impossible to achieve.

TV execs call it "water cooler TV" - something you talk about the next day.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

So people haven't talked about Breaking Bad (Netflix)? Sorry, but that is a very weak argument.

Granted, cinemas did not close when TV arrived and they are still going strong, but the experience is completely different from watching TV. When watching programmes on a streaming services, there is very little difference from watching broadcast TV except that you can't fast forward broadcast TV (except on recordings) and you don't get constantly interrupted by advertisements.

What does broadcast TV have that makes it preferable to VOD? The broadcasters are going to have to do better if they want to attract viewers to remain with their method of programme delivery. I cannot see what solution they could possibly have that would make this a better option, to be frank.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

Breaking Bad was created and broadcast by a US TV network and was renewed four times (5 seasons total) on the basis of its ratings on that network. Its reach in the UK is unclear because Netflix don't release viewer statistics, beyond basic subscriber numbers.

"Heard of" and "watched" are two quite different concepts.

As for "what does broadcast TV have" well frankly OB this is getting tiresome. I've detailed the answer to that question several times already. It has ease of access and energy and bandwidth efficient delivery, for starters. I'm not going to expand on that any further; you have ignored each previous attempt to get you to see sense.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

As far as the viewer is concerned, broadcast TV has no advantages over streaming services.

You have stated that there are issues relating to energy and bandwidth, but you seem to think that these problems cannot be resolved, despite the fact that the industry are actively working on these problems to overcome them. Ways have already been found to mitigate some of the problem and frankly it is inconceivable that the remainder will not be sorted out over the next few years. If the bulk of your argument is based on this and you are holding to it, what can I do but advise you to 'watch this space'. Mankind has had to deal with bigger problems!

In terms of the viewer experience, you cite 'ease of access'. However, as TV boxes become more user friendly, it will become just as easy to access the streaming service you want as it is to access the EPG. The time lag to get into the streaming service now (particularly appalling on the current version of Tivo) will be eradicated, so that one press of the button will get you the EPG, the Netflix menu, the BBC i-Player menu or whatever without delay, from which you choose your programme.

If you are so tired (practically comatose by all accounts;))that you cannot function sufficiently to make a choice, just press OK on the first thing that comes up! It's the main choice that is highlighted on Netflix, so the chances are you will at least be looking at something good (if you are conscious enough to follow it, of course!).

All the figures show that SVOD is attracting a bigger and bigger audience. My only question to you is, assuming that this trend continues and the energy and bandwidth issues are overcome, how long will the broadcast channels be able to survive with diminishing revenues from advertising? If they begin a fight back against the streaming services, how will this play out? What initiatives can the broadcast channels take?

Unless you have answers to those questions, and particularly if the licence fee becomes an optional subscription in about 10 years' time, then if as I strongly suspect, that the infrastructure issues are resolved, your argument that broadcast channels will survive forever is stuffed.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

You see, this is why your argument is mince. It's built on a pile of assumptions, despite the evidence being to the contrary. You have invited me to assume all my arguments are untrue and then deny your case. Pardon me but as arguments go that's pretty hare-brained.

And no, the BBC won't go subscription in 10 years. It's a mass-audience broadcaster and if the licence fee is withdrawn it will revert to advertising, exactly the same as the other state owned broadcaster (Channel 4), and the other two PSB operators (ITV and Channel 5). There is no commercial reason to lock a free-to-air channel network whose business model is based on mass audience penetration behind a paywall.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

The thing is, whenever I fire up Netflix (and I do often watch Netflix), despite all my attempts to set it up so it knows exactly what I like, 9 times out of ten, what Netflix suggests for me is absolute crap. I have to dig around to find something I want to watch. I live with my sister and her other half. Most evenings, they spend over an hour looking on Netflix for something to watch, and don't find anything they both want to watch.

And yes, I have spent hours on the site detailing exactly what I like and what I don't.

Anyway, none of us know what the future holds. We may all abandon the linear channels, and stream everything. I don't think that will happen quickly (and by quickly, I mean in less than a few decades) purely because too much needs to be done to get UK broadband into a state where it's feasible to stream everything), but things can change. Twenty years ago, no one was considering streaming and, TBH, if anyone were to launch a streaming service, it was likely to be branded "Blockbuster Video", and presumably offer deals with their stores (money off in store if you stream sort of thing), the best quality version of the film would have been on DVD, and we would have been sure that any better quality successor to DVD would have been massively successful. Blu Ray succeeded DVD and less than ten years after release is already effectively being replaced. Blockbuster Video were destroyed by Lovefilm and Netflix.

Who's to say that Netflix won't go the same way? Who's to say that in ten years time, someone won't come along, offer something new and revolutionary, and destroy Netflix. You might argue that Netflix is too big for that to happen, after all they are probably Hollywood's largest investor, spending billions of dollars. In the 90s, Blockbuster spent billions of dollars a year investing in new films, and everyone thought they were to large to fail.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

If the BBC goes subscription AND advertising, this will only hasten the demise of linear TV! You assume that subscription BBC will not happen even though the present Government is open to that idea and wants to abolish the licence fee. If you want to ignore the developments that are taking place, then hey, ho!

Chris, I have not stated that your arguments are untrue, indeed, you have made some excellent points. I am merely saying that these problems will be overcome. History tells us that, and the industry itself is relatively unperturbed. The energy issue is already 50% resolved.

I note that you did not answer my specific questions, which are the raisin d'etre of this whole thread.

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

History tells us that - what, the last 10 years?

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

I am certainly not Netflix obsessed, but they are the big boys on the block at the moment.

Netflix isn't for everyone, I guess, but there will be a range of options in the future. I'm looking at the big picture and what might happen in the future, not just what we have now.

I think that some of the contributors to this thread, with every respect that I have for them, are basing their opinions too much on what we have now. Things will change radically over two decades. Look how different things are now from 1996. The pace of change is increasing all the time, so a better reference point might be 1990.

---------- Post added at 15:52 ---------- Previous post was at 15:44 ----------

I was going back rather longer than that, but have you not noticed any changes since 2006? Really? C'mon, Hugh, we are all living on the same planet. Video streaming wasn't even in my sights in 2006, but now it must comprise at least 40% of my viewing!

Please explain your comment, I am interested to know where you are coming from!

Re: The future for linear TV channels
 

OB, your questions were based on a false premise and are therefore not relevant.

VOD subscriptions will not increase until they are universal. No subscription based service has ever achieved that.

The British power grid will never generate sufficient energy to supply continuous HD streaming to every home in the UK at the same time, because that energy requirement is simply too high. Have you not noticed the kerfuffle we're having over one new nuclear power station which won't generate any power for at least 10 years?

And, I say again, the BBC will not, ever, operate on a subscription model. Public Service Broadcasting in the UK (with the present exception of the BBC) is free-to-air, supported by advertising.