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heero_yuy 04-11-2020 10:22

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36056171)
I think I read something that the pollster group that called a Trump win last time has him winning again this time but by smaller certainty/margin. May have been on BBC but not so bothered to dig it out.

Post #693 ;)

mrmistoffelees 04-11-2020 10:24

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36056174)
Probably, depends if the margin increases or deceases and tips back to Trump. At the moment it's mostly dem postal votes coming in.




Weird for a UK network to call it. Fox News hasn't yet.

Very, AP haven't called it either yet. 94% reporting

Trump 50.3%
Biden 48.3%

Damien 04-11-2020 10:34

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Whatever happens it's going to come down to a few thousand votes again. Probably in Wisconsin and Michigan either way.

1andrew1 04-11-2020 10:52

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36056174)
Weird for a UK network to call it. Fox News hasn't yet.

Maybe that's through their NBC link as both now part of Comcast?

Damien 04-11-2020 12:26

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
No one has called Georgia yet. Some wires got crossed and the difference between leaning R and is R got mixed up IMO.

Sky don't have a decision desk nor the experience of running one. UK networks don't call American elections.

---------- Post added at 12:26 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

This is starting to go in Biden’s direction

1andrew1 04-11-2020 12:36

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36056186)
This is starting to go in Biden’s direction

I kind of thought it would be when Trump called the election fraudulent. He's many things but not stupid and wouldn't say that if he was going to win. I think his polling intelligence is probably stronger than the public polls we're seeing though.

Chris 04-11-2020 12:36

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36056186)
No one has called Georgia yet. Some wires got crossed and the difference between leaning R and is R got mixed up IMO.

Sky don't have a decision desk nor the experience of running one. UK networks don't call American elections.

---------- Post added at 12:26 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

This is starting to go in Biden’s direction

For those of us lacking the deep understanding of how the ongoing count is 'read' and extrapolations towards calling are made ... how is it now going Biden's direction?

Damien 04-11-2020 12:40

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36056204)
For those of us lacking the deep understanding of how the ongoing count is 'read' and extrapolations towards calling are made ... how is it now going Biden's direction?

Michigan and Wisconsin are tied or have Biden are ahead but the remaining vote seems to be largely from from Democratic areas it seems

Chris 04-11-2020 12:40

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
:tu:

peanut 04-11-2020 12:49

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
From the BBC...

'With 99% of votes counted, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has taken a slim lead (about 20,000 votes right now) over President Donald Trump in the Midwestern industrial state of Wisconsin.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin by less than 30,000 votes back in 2016 in a major upset.

Despite Biden's slim lead, the race remains too close to be projected.

Wisconsin could be pivotal in determining who wins the White House.'

I reckon Trump will force a recount on this one...

Mr K 04-11-2020 13:16

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
I always look to the bookies when things are unclear, they usually price it right. Biden favourite right now.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics.../winning-party (is an Independent still worth a bet at 979-1 ;))

Crazy country, crazy electoral system - one person one vote for President seems simpler and fairer. The UK isn't much better in that regard.

Damien 04-11-2020 13:18

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Wisconsin doesn’t have an automatic recount https://ballotpedia.org/Election_rec...0_states,_2020

Usually it’s 0.5% which Biden looks like he’ll clear? So can’t see a recount there unless it gets really close

downquark1 04-11-2020 13:25

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36056209)
I always look to the bookies when things are unclear, they usually price it right. Biden favourite right now.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics.../winning-party (is an Independent still worth a bet at 979-1 ;))

Crazy country, crazy electoral system - one person one vote for President seems simpler and fairer. The UK isn't much better in that regard.

That is quite a swing, last night they favoured Biden, this morning they heavily favoured Trump.

Hugh 04-11-2020 13:51

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36056211)
That is quite a swing, last night they favoured Biden, this morning they heavily favoured Trump.

Still favouring Biden - 4/7 vs 11/5

jfman 04-11-2020 13:54

Re: U.S Election 2020
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman @2.30am (Post 36056139)
Trump 4/6 on Ladbrokes. Biden 11/10.

Shortly after this Biden went out as far as 3/1. I took a punt at 2/1.


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