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We have been told that modified inoculations will be available this autumn, anyway. It takes only a few weeks to modify it as required. |
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We should continue to live in fear. Makes perfect sense.
Mortality rate is under 50’s - 0.5 % Mortality rate in under 40’s - 0.19% Mortality rate in under 30’s - 0.04% Mortality rate in under 20’s - 0.01% And this is before the vaccine roll out got really going. Yes, we should all live in fear. The government and the media really have done a number on everyone. https://www.gov.uk/government/public...england-report |
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I heard of increasing confidence. I heard nothing in absolute terms. The fact Boris took to television on Friday at 5pm makes me think that confidence isn’t that high - added to the u-turn on 12 weeks. Quote:
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It’s almost as if you think providing facts and context was a bad thing… ;) btw, an archivist is a person who has the job of collecting and storing the materials in an archive - did you mean a researcher? ;) (In a previous life I was an Intelligence Analyst, so your poor attempts at derision for using skills I learned then are wasted - but keep on keepin’ on…) |
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The fact that each time a new variant is announced, questions are asked and checks are made. demonstrates that it is considered a possibility. There can be no guarantees. Viruses don't necessarily just badly affect those with weaker immune systems. Spanish Flu is an example of where those with strong immune systems were badly affected. |
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They've also put local lockdown on the table. It's a slippery slope but one you seem desperate (as ever) to climb on. ---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:10 ---------- Quote:
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And , anyone can use Google. But that wasn’t what I was referring to. |
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As for the summer 2020 prediction, the virus did indeed reduce to minimal levels. It was the Kent variant that changed everything. |
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I don’t need to watch Andrew Marr - there’s a write up on the BBC website. You are conflating optimism, and indications with cold, hard evidence. But let’s face it, you’ve ignored evidence since last February so why change the habit of the pandemic. I look forward to how you were right but for the pesky Indian variant on June 22 as we retain masks and distancing on the basis of actual evidence not optimism. |
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Let's just say I look forward to you being proven wrong on June 22, OB.
The messaging from the Government is deliberately unclear and evasive. Their hands are over the emergency stop button and it's staring you right in the face if you pay attention to the parts of sentences you deliberately ignore or omit. |
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*If* the India variant is a vaccine escape mutant then we will be back to lockdowns in time. It would be inevitable. Thankfully at the moment the mounting data suggest that this is not a vaccine escape scenario, but rather the consequence of certain clusters of people not coming forward to get vaccinated when first asked. |
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The problem is if it's not binary we are still in a place where we need some restrictions for some time ongoing.
If it dents efficacy 10% not much concern. 20-30% might be enough to prevent lockdowns but leave areas stuck in restrictions similar to the last three weeks or the next three, but still further away from abandoning all distancing and masks on an entirely arbitrary date that some desire. Local lockdown remains realistic in areas of vaccine hesitancy. The data in the next few weeks should offer some clarity around it. |
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Interestingly though, a lot of the vaccine hesitancy (in Bolton at least) seems only to be skin deep. Threaten the locals with prolonged restrictions that no longer apply to their neighbouring towns and they queue round the block to get their jab.
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My mum used to turn leftover Bolognese into chilli con carne by adding kidney beans and a teaspoon of chilli powder :D
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...ant-inefficacy And Sinovac CoronaVac works poorly with the Brazilian variant https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-56731801 |
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Also that was done on a small sample size (2000) with an average age of 31. Quote:
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It prevents serious illness in a sample size so small with an average age you wouldn't expect serious illness.
For reference check your own statistics produced only yesterday. "If it stops serious illness" is a big if based on the data available. Hence the sensible step to alert the public of a potential pause while real world data is evaluated. |
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations |
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Vaccination centres might end up being super-spreader events with loads of younger people and others who have not followed the simple rules, now attending them. |
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Oh dear Old Boy. June 22 isn't looking so good.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-05-17/...1-close-to-nil |
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Initially the only reason for restrictions being imposed was to ease pressure on the NHS. If the NHS is not under pressure, there should be no restrictions. But we’ve given the government too much power, they’ve been allowed to act like a totalitarian regime and they like it. They want to retain control so they move the reasoning. It’s no longer about easing pressure on the NHS, it’ll be some other reason, keeping infection rates down to an arbitrary level, or zero Covid. It’ll be a fight to get our freedoms and rights back, if Captain Hindsight had any sense that’s the fight he should be taking to the Government and the one he should have been doing all the way through this. |
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86 local authorities out of 343 in England have at least 5 cases of the Indian variant.
2,323 confirmed cases of the Indian variant in the UK, a 77% increase in confirmed cases over the last five days. Most people in hospital with the variant in those areas had been eligible for a vaccine but had chosen not to have it. |
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It’s exactly the same position we’ve been in since February 2020. As I’ve been repeating often since then the decision making that led to the first lockdown remains unless something materially changes. We’ve introduced the vaccine to some degree of success. It rearranges the figures to some degree for now, but doesn’t change the underlying decision making process. |
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Straightforward risk management to support the vaccinated to return to their normal lives at the expense of those unwilling to vaccinate for the collective good. Holidays is a good start. Large sports events and concerts. Very quickly the numbers of people willing to take a “principled stand” diminish. Once we push the Pfizer vaccine at 12-16 year olds that’ll help push us closer to population level immunity. |
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Why do people quote mortality rates, they may look low, but not you lose a family member, in which case the 0.01% is no joke, or fear it's fact. |
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Until one or more of them start blowing things up , because they're being treated differently:shrug: |
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Or Irish carrying a table leg :sniper: |
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The rates may look low, because they are low, and when the impact to the minority, and it is a minority, starts dictating the actions and freedoms of the majority, that’s an issue. ---------- Post added at 22:01 ---------- Previous post was at 22:00 ---------- Quote:
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The Indian variant has come at quite possibly the most inconvenient time. Just as we're opening up but whilst we still have a lot of people to vaccinate.
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"In Bolton there are 18 people in hospital with coronavirus, with the majority of those not having the jab despite being eligible, the health secretary said. He added that five people had ended up in hospital having had one jab, while there was one there who had received both doses but was 'frail'" That's a worryingly high proportion (although we don't know when they had their jabs) |
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This is the bit that seems to get lost on some every time. 6 hospitalisations isn’t high - nobody claims that figure is in it’s own right.
Off how many infections given they were likely infected two weeks ago is the rough estimate everyone is looking for. With that variant doubling every four days in some areas do hospitalisations follow in the next two weeks? Or, was it pure bad luck that these individuals got infected shortly after vaccination. If it’s the former, despite vaccination, we are firmly into another lockdown territory. It’s only a matter of time until it spreads into more areas. If however vaccines have broken the link between the two figures - a doubling of cases only sees a 10% growth in hospitalisations - that is more manageable with other non-pharmaceutical interventions (masks, distancing, vaccine certificates). If one dose hasn’t broken the link but two has, or they both have to varying degree (either through time/second dose) that changes the dynamic again. The proposal to sit back, wait and see what happens only triggering the alarm when hospitalisations is high leaves enough cases out there to keep adding pressure for weeks to come, and only drags the inevitable lockdown out longer as cases remain stubbornly high. |
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State broadcaster puff piece alert:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871 "Agonising" decision. If it's that agonising there's one decision to make and one only. |
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Seems like the media are on a mission (Govt led? ) to ensure lock down continues for a while yet.
Rumours are that the timetables are now being finalised for the future roll-outs of the Moldovian, Icelandic, Madagascan, and Cricklewood variants. Some ITK people even suggest the whole thing is a ruse developed by paper tissue manufacturers to increase sales of certain items, although this has been panned by critics ;) |
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The number of cases is increasing, and that is with certain restrictions in place. Therefore easing up of restrictions would lead to even bigger increases, eg when they start having weddings etc with 100+ people from around the world.
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If the vaccinations are not effective, we are screwed. It is not sensible to keep having lockdowns when nothing works against the virus because yet another wave begins at the end of each lockdown, as experience tells us. Lockdowns simply put off the inevitable.
A lockdown can only be sensible if you are trying to slow the virus while a solution is rolled out (eg as in a vaccination programme). But if there is no solution, then there’s no point in such emergency measures. |
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With road blocks, btw. |
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A mere few posts ago you told us how vaccines can be modified in a matter of weeks. |
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Good Sky News clip below showing how poor India's situation was when we continued to let travellers in from that country.
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Boris wants the India deal - with it comes an open door immigration price. If it's far sighted, with plans in place to grow specific business and UK jobs, then fine - but there isn't such a plan because Boris is impulsive. The threat to 21 June is on of Boris's mistaken making. |
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Gosh . . Andrew posting a Tweet from an Anti Brexit person too :D
Who'd a thunk it eh :D |
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60 million Pfizer doses for Autumn and a change in current dosing strategy tells me the Government knows something you don't. |
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I just hope Boris hasn't snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Hopefully, the intensified vaccination programme in Bolton will help put us back on track. |
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The real value in throwing vaccines into the most prominent areas is to test the vaccine in the real world.
It's got virtually nothing to do with protecting the people there. |
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The Guvmin does say that don’t know enough about the current vaccines vs Indian variant, but it does accord the vaccines a cautious yes. But by inoculating the Bolton (etc) doubters, they’ll be ready for the booster as well as gaining whatever protection that current vaccines provide. But then , you knew all that. |
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You can wait around forever for a significant amount of infections in an area where the virus is under control. Or you can take it head on where it's rife and measure what decline (if any) arises If the goal was reduce infections then local lockdown doesn't take a few weeks to deploy and a few weeks to take effect. |
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Nothing in the real world. But the anti-vaxers, Covid-19 deniers won't allow it without throwing their toys out of the pram |
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However, there are a couple of reasons why this might not work;
I think the only way ring fencing would work would be with compulsory quarantine and vaccination. I saw a tweet earlier from Mark Easton at the BBC which said that only 13% of the population of Burnley worked from home compared with 71% for Richmond which goes some way to explain the rise in cases in some areas - https://twitter.com/BBCMarkEaston/st...18979514884096 |
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I did my first Covid-19 test today, I heard my sister laugh as I gagged when doing the tonsils, and she laughed again when I sneezed after doing it up the nose.
Of course, it came back negative. |
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My second dose was due tomorrow, now put back a week due to "supply problems" (OAZ).
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Erroneous assumption is that local lockdown is playing against opening up. In reality it's playing against national lockdown. Then again Pierre's proposed decision making tend to encourage those.
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Local lockdown German style :D
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You know, the type that doesn't require qualification on the Sunday mornings. Words to look out for: think, expect, should, may. Also watch for people talking about their own confidence (personal opinion); against Covid (not variant specific) and vaccines in general (including the higher performing mRNA vaccines in their opinion). |
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About the virus. |
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I'm not a paid expert/apparatus of the British state ;)
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Professor Pantsdown sees a "glimmer of hope" in the data.
Doesn't sound very scientific. |
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https://inews.co.uk/news/green-red-l...-rules-1006937 https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/14...list-countries |
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The people I'd like to see dealt with are those finding ways to return from "red list" counties and avoid restrictions in place. But that just illustrates a big problem our government has in that people try to work around guidelines thus needing longer and more strict rules.
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Found a big QR code for my vaccine status on the NHS App yesterday. There seems to be a travel section now. It's always had my vaccination status under my health record but this seems new (or I haven't spotted it before)
Definitely not a vaccine passport, no sir. * disclaimer, very much in favour of having certified vaccine status so this is actually great |
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Best of luck managing the legislation that prevents anyone without a 'vaccine passport' from attending a work place they're contracted to. :p: |
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And what then would my employment status be? Sick, Furloughed?, Sacked? Is there a case for discrimination? (over to you Richard lol) or similar claim where my 'right to work' is compromised? |
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Hey, it's like I need to have a passport and driving licence. If I refused to have one or the other, I would be able to work either. You could argue that vaccination is needed under health and safety rules. In healthcare settings, COVID 19 is a notifiable disease under UK rules (RIDDOR) so vaccination is a potential route to reduce this type of 'workplace injury'. There's always likely to be a point where the Human Rights protections will take up precedence for those who decline vaccinations for religious or other protected characteristics. |
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potential legal minefield. |
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If you want to make the claim the Government won't introduce some kind of Covid certification for domestic events then knock yourself out. We can add it to the list once you are proven wrong. |
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Follow the science, the plughole is large enough :D
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Just been watching the Matt Hancock live feed and he said that ....
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We’re the poo crew’: sleuths test for Covid by reading signs in sewage |
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Sounds like a lot of shite.
On a serious note there's been instances of US colleges analysing waste from different dormitories/halls to target testing to identify cases. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/26/92583...=1621441983564 |
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I'm gonna start bottling mine and dump it in Hull :D
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From my link I liked the comment .... Quote:
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