Re: Coronavirus
 

Well worth reading this Twitter thread # from John Burn-Murdoch on why the UK differs from its peers in Europe on Covid at the moment. Some extracts below but only a full read does it justice.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...01652207239176

Re: Coronavirus
 

The actual figures don't back this up so much though.


If you look at the stats from the ONS, which given that T&T managed to tell around 40k people who had covid they didn't recently, is probably more accurate than the official figures right now, you'll see:
- most age groups are relatively static (and low) in terms of infections
- there is a slight uptick in the last few weeks in 35-50 (which is likely the group who are working in schools and parents of school age children)
- Age group of below year 7 (i.e. primary age kids) was higher but is now declining
- Age group of year 7 to 13 (i.e. secondary age kids) is accelerating rapidly, after being high until the end of July and then going up again from the middle of September.


So, it's clear what we're seeing now is something which is mainly related to the schools being open (given that secondary age kids would be freely socialising with their friends over the summer) and possibly related activities from the schools being back such as after school clubs, scouting etc without restrictions, contact sports etc. Along with a bit of overspill into their presumably AZ-vaccinated parents whose immunity isn't as good or they haven't been vaccinated.



Presumably other countries are doing this too, so what makes it different here? Do the schools in France and other places have restrictions, distancing, face coverings etc? Or is it just that they're way ahead of us at vaccinating kids, not doing it through the schools as we seem to be, and not up against resistance from as many parents about vaccinating their kids? Sure thing it isn't as effective at stopping the infection kids tend to get, but even if it was only 10% effective at that, that's 3 kids in a typical class size of 30 who would have no effects of getting the virus plus effects on onwards transmission. Unless this roll out speeds up, we're now going to be looking at high figures as it rips through the schools until either everyone's had it (who hasn't already) or they catch up with the vaccines. But the encouraging thing from the data is that it doesn't appear to be causing a major issue in other age groups yet, or hospitalisations, which it clearly was by this time last year with the schools and universities open. (Though that was mainly seeming to be the universities, and you'd expect the majority of students to be double jabbed or to have already had covid).


He is probably right about the sick pay issues making it less advantageous for people to isolate (and get tested knowing they will have to if it's positive if they have something which could be covid, and dismissing it as a cold, which also has onward transmission implications) but this is in a group who have long since been offered jabs and either are double jabbed or refused it.


Mask wearing has little effect in a population where over 80% of adults have been vaccinated. It only ever had a chance of working where people had covid and didn't realise, and with this, first of all asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread is less common with delta than alpha or wild type covid, and your susceptible population is much reduced by the vaccination, in any case a cloth or paper face mask as opposed to a surgical N95 type is unlikely to have more than a minimal filtering effect anyway, so the effect is likely masked (pun not intended) in the other countries by their wearing of masks being somewhat unnecessary, given that people with symptoms which could be covid, should be staying at home and getting a test.


As for gatherings, surely this (in clubs, concerts, theatres, sports grounds etc) is necessary economically, and to get back to normal after some time of such things being banned or restricted, and again, it's only an issue if people turn up who actually have the virus - basically see above. And really, people should turn their nose up at people meeting their friends (when double jabbed, and unlikely to have the virus) because it's making things worse when kids have covid?


For now at least, it's clear where the issue is. And the measures should be targeted there, or at least probed first to see what's happening. I don't necessarily agree they should close the schools, but they could restrict to online lessons for some things, face covering use, more distancing, stopping after school activities, whilst they accelerate getting jabs into the secondary age kids (plus year 7s who aren't 12 yet) to try and reduce it. As it's just this age group why should the general population have more restrictions when they're vaccinated, and don't have the virus anyway?


This whole making healthy people behave as though they're ill may have had value about a year back, but really needs to stop now, or at least calm down.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I think that’s bollocks, but if you can back it up with data, I’ll listen. Otherwise you shouldn’t have wasted your time posting it.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Unfortunately, not bollocks, but facts. It's all there in my Tweet link but here's the direct links:
https://twitter.com/sarahoconnor_/st...290115/photo/1
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...131974/photo/1

---------- Post added at 22:22 ---------- Previous post was at 22:17 ----------

He's discussing the differences between the UK and other European countries.

The biggest take-away for me from it is that we're a bit like Israel - that country had an early mover advantage with vaccinations but their effectiveness declines over time leading to s resurgence without a timely booster.

Re: Coronavirus
 

But he's ignoring the facts where our cases are.


Secondary school aged kids haven't had vaccination waning because they haven't had a vaccination to wane.


And since they are never perfect, and were only really intended to prevent hospitalisation and death, it's not too surprising there has been a spill over from high infections in kids to adults, though admittedly less than it was.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Yup - issue is we've vaccinated late with children as he acknowledges.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/sta...916612/photo/1

Re: Coronavirus
 

Do you read what you write ?

This is so wrong its laughable, try telling it to any 3rd world country, or war torn country. Theres a hell of a lot more poverty elsewhere.

Poverty alone is not likely to increase your chance of catching it, in fact, it may well reduce it - as your less likely to go out much and mix with others.

The last bit has more chance of having some truth to it, its certainly likely that poverty could mean poorer health, and thus more chance of it being serious if caught (but vaccinations of course massively reduce that chance).

Re: Coronavirus
 

That’s not *quite* the issue.

There’s a slight difference in the application of medical ethics at play here that is obfuscated every time a journalist lazily states that the UK “lags” is “late” or has “fallen behind” with vaccination in under 18s.

The benefits of the vaccine to the individual are marginal in that age group. At present, data indicates that double vaccination elevates risk above reward, although the main side effect (myocarditis) is still very rare. The benefits are mainly to the population at large, in eliminating wells of infection and sources of potential virus mutation.

So yes, the UK’s overall vaccination rate is now lower than some European countries but there are sound reasons why that’s the case. Giving the reason as “late” is a disservice to the vitally important practice of medical ethics. The UK’s decision is well-considered, balanced and justified with regards to the needs of the individual - individuals who are still children in this case.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Interesting that the JCVI haven’t published minutes of their meetings since February so we have no meaningful way to critique their British exceptionalism in this case, despite the MHRA approving the vaccine as safe and effective three months earlier.

Even if we accept it the pace of vaccination of children, in particular in England, is slow considering the pace of vaccinations in May.

Re: Coronavirus
 

The comparison is to the UK's peers in Western Europe.

If people are living in poverty then their access to private transport etc may be reduced thus increasing their chances of infection or they have to be live in a multi-generational household, again thereby increasing their chances of infection.

Re: Coronavirus
 

J.F. old chum, your contributions in this area have long since taken a turn down the rabbit hole. What would be genuinely interesting is if you could, just once, back up your insinuations with some authoritative evidence.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Likewise, what was previously well considered input from yourself has deteriorated into nationalist flag waving. If the EU were behind us in vaccinating kids I’m convinced you’d make the contrary argument.

It might comfort some to think we are the best in the world, however looking at our cases, hospitalisations and deaths I can’t help but feel uneasy.

Re: Coronavirus
 

I don’t recall saying my such thing. I pointed to a differing approach to medical ethics. Whether it’s better to prioritise the herd or the individual is an interesting and important subject. I find it surprising that European countries suffering far greater problems with vaccine hesitancy in their populations than we are, should seem more ready to press an issue in this way. As for the British approach, I see no data as of right now that supports the idea that we should be in a hurry to vaccinate children when the benefit to them is so low, the risks to the individual, though low, border on exceeding the benefits to that individual. The argument about giving space for virulent mutations is not persuasive, given the dramatic reduction in the number of variants of interest over the past 6 months. There are now only 2, recently designated, and both have been circulating in South American countries since last December/January.

If you wish to fulminate over your loathing of the British state that’s your business, but it is just a bit tedious to keep reading it. Some engagement with the ethical issues, rather than rehearsing your favourite conspiracy theories, would be welcome.

Re: Coronavirus
 

Re: Coronavirus
 

I see no great purpose to consider the ethical issues the JCVI used (or didn’t, we don’t have the minutes after all) when the MHRA approved the vaccine as safe and effective in teenagers with millions of doses administered worldwide with other countries who have presumably considered the same ethical issues.

Equally very quickly after the JCVI announced their non-decision the CMOs all approved the vaccine. So I fail to see how ethics can be held up as a reasonable justification for the delay considering they were overruled anyway.