Re: Brexit
 

The thought of Labour in power.....

Still if they ever got in I could leave my job and live a life on benfits as they would pay well again

Re: Brexit
 

Just pretend you are an EU citizen. Apparently they all come here to lap up life on Universal Credit.

Re: Brexit
 

Whilst taking all our jobs.

Re: Brexit
 

Voting closed,has she poured herself a large whiskey and loaded the revolver;)

Re: Brexit
 

The Telegraph’s Christopher Hope reveals that different sources say different things.

Re: Brexit
 

Priceless.

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May issues promise to not fight next election. Not legally binding!

Re: Brexit
 

vote result announcement to be a 9pm

Re: Brexit
 

Anything less than 100 against is a good win for TM.

But it means nothing, nothing has changed.

If she doesn’t Get the backstop removed from the Deal, there is no deal.

Re: Brexit
 

If she gets the backstop removed, Ireland won’t sign off the deal (and it needs all 27 EU countries to sign it off).

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/e...stop-1.3720166

Re: Brexit
 

My bet is she has got over 200 votes.

Re: Brexit
 

1 is a victory for May. 12 months freedom to define Brexit on her terms.

Re: Brexit
 

Tick tock.

Re: Brexit
 

Your prediction pip?.

Re: Brexit
 

I’ll take 217 for TM, 100 against.

Re: Brexit
 

Rumours abound that some of the Brexiteers have glum faces.

Re: Brexit
 

Here we go

Re: Brexit
 

May wins with 200 - 117 votes

Re: Brexit
 

was never in doubt really

200 for 117 against

Re: Brexit
 

Close

Re: Brexit
 

200 to 117

---------- Post added at 21:02 ---------- Previous post was at 21:01 ----------

Enough for her to be happy, the ERG have been shown up.

Re: Brexit
 

I’ll credit that ;)

May’s Brexit plays no Brexit.

Re: Brexit
 

Indeed.:)

Re: Brexit
 

Mogg going onto BBC saying she should resign

Re: Brexit
 

Pretty predictable his comments.

Re: Brexit
 

Not really. 117 is a lot against her.

Re: Brexit
 

[Admin Edit: Removed].

---------- Post added at 21:11 ---------- Previous post was at 21:09 ----------

[/COLOR]A lot who can’t do anything for 12 months. Extension, 2nd referendum, soft Brexit all on the table with cross party support to a greater or lesser degree. No deal Brexit on 29th March is stone dead. No mechanism exists to force it.

Re: Brexit
 

?....4 months?

Re: Brexit
 

Unless the boil can be lanced the civil war over Europe in the Conservative party will inevitably tear the party apart.

Re: Brexit
 

Well a election, referendum or EEA all got more likely

Re: Brexit
 

It is.

A 3rd of her party are against her. Which is why I said Less than a 100 is whTvshe really needs.

However, I think it’s enough for her.

But unless she resolved the back stop issue, it all means nothing. No other metrics have changed.

This deal will not get through parliament as is.

Re: Brexit
 

The 117 run the risk of no Brexit at all (and/or a Corbyn Government) if they don’t back her. If she wants 12 months they will back her extension.

---------- Post added at 21:17 ---------- Previous post was at 21:15 ----------

We need new arithmetic.

There is no Brexit PM riding in on a white charger to save the day.

Re: Brexit
 

No, not really.

First she has to try and resolve the backstop issue........sort that out and the deal has a chance.

If that doesn’t Happen a second referendum, forced because of parliamentry impotence is possible.

An election is still off the menu for some time.

Re: Brexit
 

if it a EEA deal there is no backstop as we be in CU so no need for a backstop or hard border

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May doesn’t have to solve anything now. Problems solve themselves for our Prime Minister.

Dissenters in the party need to ask themselves what they prefer. If the party do not toe the line she can extend, bring in emergency legislation, revoke.

Back my deal or bring me down. She’s truly magnificent at this.

Re: Brexit
 

Sounds like he isn't accepting the result of the vote :shocked:

Re: Brexit
 

An EEA deal is not current

May’s deal is on the table, and a major sticking point is the Backstop.

If she can get a concession from the EU on this, she might get it through......might.

Re: Brexit
 

it might be when her deal get defeated in parliament we wait and see what happens

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Apparently the ERG have lodged a formal complaint against the fact that the 1922 Committee allowed Diane Abbott to count the votes... ;)

---------- Post added at 21:41 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------

Apparently 63% of the votes cast isn't enough of a majority to give her a mandate...

Re: Brexit
 

For him maybe. Unfortunately for JRM ( and I do like him). He needs to take it like a man and shut the fluff up.

Time to move on.

Re: Brexit
 

He'll want another vote until he gets the result he wants as he feels that's his privilege.

---------- Post added at 00:09 ---------- Previous post was at 00:08 ----------

An EEA deal is not on offer. That's not an automatic right. The only automatic rights are no deal and remain. The non-automatic right is the deal that Theresa May has negotiated.

Re: Brexit
 

Without a limit on the backstop her deal will and must be rejected.

Re: Brexit
 

Well done, Den. ;)

---------- Post added at 00:18 ---------- Previous post was at 00:15 ----------

That opinion doesn't alter the fact that EEA is not an automatic option and would need to be negotiated.

Re: Brexit
 

Beginners luck Andrew.;)

Re: Brexit
 

Ha, ha coming from you, you have to love the irony.

Re: Brexit
 

What a clusterfluff! Of course many of you are putting aside the fact that the real enemy of the UK is the EU (see Macron and Varadkar for details).

Re: Brexit
 

That’s your opinion, not a fact.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

What deal is that? Everybody keeps going on about a "deal" when no such thing is on offer in any shape or form. it is just supposed to be an interim agreement in place until the actual "deal" is agreed. That interim agreement not only treats NI differently from the rest of the UK, but continues freedom of movement and having to follow and obey the EU.


People also keep going about the "sovereignty of Parliament", but the interim agreement tramples all over that because the setting of rules and regulations are meant to have been brought back to the UK by the Brexit bill, The interim agreement overturns that Parliamentary vote.

Re: Brexit
 

I don't think the interim agreement does allow freedom of movement?

Also it treats NI differently only if we have no deal at the end of the interim period. It's 'the backstop' to ensure no border is required if we haven't come to some other arrangement.

This is always going to be the case with any other arrangement including a prospective trade deal with the US. Part of these agreements including converging regulation to make trade easier. Parliament's say in that is when they vote for the overall package.

Re: Brexit
 

The enemies of this country are the right wing nationalists and hard Brexit wing of the Conservative party pushing their ideology above the national interest. Years and hundreds of millions of pounds have been wasted for an unrealisable dream.

Time, money and effort that could have been used to solve the real problems affecting the day to day lives of the people of the United Kingdom. People aren’t poor because of immigration. It’s just the scapegoat dog whistle that has worked throughout history across the world to get poor people to vote against their own interests.

Re: Brexit
 

The following 2 stances are incompatible with each other.

Re: Brexit
 

So the original part is referring to the continued right of those who are already here.

The next part is saying you can't pick and choose. I.E We won't get free movement of goods if we don't take free movement of people. It's not saying we've signed up to that but the integrity of the four freedoms will be upheld in any future talks.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

You're racking up quite a lot of people in the enemy category

Re: Brexit
 

Theresa May was voted PM 3 weeks after the Brexit referendum, and we've just had a rerun of TM's verdict due to changing opinion.

Re: Brexit
 

Nothing like generalising sadly.

Re: Brexit
 

And can continue to come here until at least 2020 and possibly beyond. Their families will be able to come over after that date and visa-free travel is freedom of movement by another name. As the the BBC article said continued freedom of movement is a "large section of the draft agreement".


Turkey has been in a customs union with the EU for more than 20 years, all without(at the moment) freedom of movement.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

He isn't being 'holier than thou', just stating an uncomfortable truth.

Your perception of democracy just happen to be just that: a perception. If Parliament decide, as is their right, that the Brexit options available represent a clear & present danger to the prosperity of the country then it is right and proper that they seek a mandate from the people.

It is dogma that got us into to position in the first place and it pragmatism that will get us out of it.

Re: Brexit
 

So if I and (and others) don’t agree with your imaginative interpretation of events, you resort to personal ad hominem attacks - nice...:dozey:

You even admit you are making stuff up with the phrase “Author’s licence of my part", as the definition of Author’s/Artistic Licence is

Re: Brexit
 

The legitimacy of Parliament derives from Democracy. It might be claimed that a future Labour government represents a clear & present danger and therefore according to you, Parliament could legitimately prevent that.

Re: Brexit
 

Ah ok. I think there is some confusion on my part here. You meant things will continue as normal during the transition period, I thought you meant we had committed to free movement as part of the basis for the future deal.

I would say that 'visa-free' travel isn't the same as free movement. Travelling, i.e you going to France, without a visa is not the same as having the right to live and work in France. In the EU free movement is considered to mean the latter although you also have 'visa-free' travel too.

Re: Brexit
 

Not in the United Kingdom it doesn't. Plenty of countries have constutitions that state their legislature is given authority from the people- but not ours.


A claim that an entire Government platform elected would be a danger compared to a single bad policy would certainly be a bold one.

Re: Brexit
 

Let's see how your future predictions work out Den, there will be plenty of opportunities in this thread. ;)

Re: Brexit
 

How long Mr Corbyn lasts if there is a snap election.;)

Re: Brexit
 

I'm not sure I get where you're coming from (Are you mistaking me with Nigel Farage per chance?) but at least we both agree an EEA deal is not currently on the table.

Re: Brexit
 

:rofl::rofl::rofl: it's the way you tell em .

Re: Brexit
 

Laughable.

They sought a mandate from the people last time, and don't seem to want to implement it.

What if they put it to the people again, and the people say leave again? what then?

---------- Post added at 13:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:05 ----------

Sorry I thought you were a remainer and supported another referendum? in which case your criticism seemed a little ironic

If I have mis-judged your position I apologise.

Re: Brexit
 

Thanks - you did misjudge it.

Re: Brexit
 

When did I mention EEA?

Re: Brexit
 

So you don't want another referendum?

Re: Brexit
 

Good article here on Brexit: https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/...of-our-nation/ (open in private/incognito mode if you've hit the read limit)

I disagree with some of it but think this bit is very true:

Governments shouldn't hold referendums into decisions where they disagree with the 'change' option.

Re: Brexit
 

Indeed. It all goes back to Cameron trying to settle an internal issue in the Conservative Party. One that instead of tearing the party apart is now threatening the very existence of the United Kingdom.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

36% of Tory MPs do not support May and her efforts towards Leaving. I suspect this is a fair representation of the split in the Tory Party, just seems they do not want to see the fundamental split within the party as irrevocable. So just keep tinkering round the edges, rather than make a clean break and be done with it.

Re: Brexit
 

It's not possible all 36% are against the leave plan. Some may have their own career aspirations (and their own associated cliques), some may feel that she isn't the best person to take the party forward for the next 12 months.


Another question is whether the 36% represent the people who vote Conservative, and the Conservative membership as a whole.

Re: Brexit
 

Re: Brexit
 

Me too, in my constituency, and strangely enough, it's the other way round here - must be that North/South divide... ;)

We are about 50/50 on Leave/Remain, but even some of the Leave camp thought she needed to be allowed to get on with it, and that Rees-Mogg et al were just nasty little stirrers out for themselves, rather than the country.

Re: Brexit
 

Mogg must know he can't get it.

As an aside earlier in the year I read a book about the campaign and it made Steve Baker and the wider ERG seem like the men behind the curtain, geniuses pulling the levers of the party, now I think it's just Steve Baker was a good source for the journalist.

Re: Brexit
 

Apparently the ERG are planning something against May next week

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/s...74233780879361

Re: Brexit
 

Not a chance of peace within the governing party then...

Re: Brexit
 

I hope they do something so stupid. If we don’t have the legislation we need A50 gets extended. :)

Re: Brexit
 

On the contrary without legislation A50 happens on schedule.

Re: Brexit
 

There’s much more to facilitating Brexit, of any description, than the EU withdrawal Act.

From that Tweet

“Could involve a vote on 2ndry legislation on Wednesday possibly on no-deal planning on financial services”

If secondary legislation required by financial services for no deal planning isn’t in place do you think May won’t declare it an emergency and extend/withdraw? The party backed May, and opposition parties will be happy to continue the pantomime as it makes the Tories look petty by squabbling against the national interest.

https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...withdrawal-act
“Now the bill has gained Royal Assent and become an Act of Parliament, the Government has begun to introduce the secondary legislation it needs using the powers created by the Act. Ministers have estimated around 800 will be needed. The content of some of these will depend on the nature of the UK’s future relationship with the EU, but if the UK leaves the EU without a deal by March 2019 all of these will need to be in place.

The European and Statutory Instruments Committee (ESIC) is now up and running and the statutory instruments are being laid in Parliament. ESIC can recommend statutory instruments tabled under the negative procedure be upgraded to affirmative, but not the other way round. Therefore, it will likely scrutinise around 600.”

Re: Brexit
 

A decent article- for once, by the BBC that highlights that Labour are just farcical and have no other objective than to snipe from the sidelines, the don’t want to be in power until Bexit has been resolved because they know they can’t deliver it.

Corbyn secretly wants a hard Brexit, but can’t say it.

Why is Jeremy Corbyn not trying to topple Theresa May right now? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46552939

Re: Brexit
 

Labour’s strategy is actually quite good. Any outcome and the Tories take the fall. What’s not brilliant about that as a strategy?

Re: Brexit
 

The question is if the positions were reversed how would the Conservatives play it?.

Re: Brexit
 

The same. Don’t interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

Re: Brexit
 

Thats just typical labour, pretty much the same when they were last in power

Re: Brexit
 

For all their bluster, they are impotent. They don’t want to be in power until Brexit is over. Because they know they’d make a horses arse out of it too.

Re: Brexit
 

Why don’t the Tories throw them in then?

The actual risk is that Labour make a success of it.

Re: Brexit
 

Because Brexit is only part of it. Labour would royally make a dogs breakfast of everything.

Also, The only way Labour could get into power is if they were given it as you so wish. Because even with the farce of the current proceedings Labour still wouldn’t win.

Any other opposition would be light years ahead by now.

Re: Brexit
 

I'm not keen.
I do think that if it was demonstrated that the previous referendum was won on the basis of illegal funding, then a new referendum would be needed, in the same way that athletes who won medals by taking unlawful substances are stripped of them.

Re: Brexit
 

Labour could actually make a huge success of a post-Brexit Britain. End the race to the bottom of capitalism and remove the “free market” from areas best managed by the state. The joke of east coast franchise operators/carillon creaming off the profits and dumping the liabilities back on the state could be ended.

Re: Brexit
 

I don’t think that would ever be proven.

---------- Post added at 21:26 ---------- Previous post was at 21:22 ----------

Bloody hell, well you’ve laid yourself out to bear there.

I knew you were left leaning and you’ve managed to portray yourself pretty much as a remain leaning centrist in most of your posts, but now........well...............

Re: Brexit
 

I didn’t say that’s my preferred outcome, but it’s undeniable there’s been a number of examples of private industry creaming off the profits and dumping liabilities (including pensions) back on the state. Is that really a positive outcome?

“Competition” by way of rail franchising, and for example the “big 6” energy firms aren’t true free markets anyway.

Remain leaning centrist, I’d say that’s fair.

Re: Brexit
 

Double edged sword, plenty of examples where government involvement in industry has killed it. British Leyland being the obvious example.

Why would anyone expect politicians,( and you only have to watch question time, listen to any questions to realise that the vast majority or just plain stupid,) to be able run industry better than business?

I agree the rail and utility markets should be reviewed, and profits capped, or reinvestment v profit managed. They should be better and stronger regulated, but ultimately it is better than being publicly owned. If they were brought back into public ownership they would just become a political football like the biggest football of them all the NHS.

The national treasure and no doubt the biggest waste of tax payers money. But nobody dare reform it......properly.

Re: Brexit
 

I’m not saying politicians could run industries better, it’s a balancing act between public/private and effective regulation. It’s far from black and white.

Freedom from the EU could permit awarding contracts to less favourable bidders for other reasons, e.g. the contract that employs people here rather than simply importing goods. I’m not saying that’s always the road to take, but where bids are close enough the one that hypothetically employs thousands of people here will return millions in income tax revenue, VAT revenue, supports local economies.

As opposed to sending that money overseas to save a few quid.

We are going off on a tangent, and I don’t think we are a million miles apart. :)