Re: US Election 2024
 

Whether it is or not isn’t for me to say. My point is, if you want to cut through the publicly available data, all of which is subject to spin and misrepresentation, watch how the candidates are actually behaving.

Harris is behaving like she believes she can win, even in places she would not have expected to.

Trump is cancelling debates, interviews and town halls left right and centre, swaying to music instead of answering questions from voters and hiding in studios with sympathetic podcasters for hours.

I know which one of those two people *believes* they’re winning.

Re: US Election 2024
 

This is because Republicans this time are advocating voting early.

The early vote is dangerous to analyse because it ultimately shifts votes from election day to before election day. It could be evidence that Trump is leading or it could be evidence that more of his voters are going early this time and he won't have quite the same surge on election day.

It will hopefully stop the 'blue shift' that we saw with the initial votes on election day—which are counted first in most states—trending Republican before the early vote trended Democrat.

Nobody knows how the election will go. It's 50/50. Harris leads by a single percentage point in some swing states, Trump in others. They are neck and neck in the popular vote as well.

As I said a few posts back this also leads us to the interesting chance that for the first time in a long time, maybe ever, there could be a Democratic President who didn't win the popular vote!

Re: US Election 2024
 

To quote my great great granddaddy "and they give these people the vote!" Most of us won't get it in his world !

Re: US Election 2024
 

Hiding in studios with sympathetic podcasters, you’re a piece of work.

I just listened to it, he sounded perfectly lucid to me. 3hrs straight and he laid out policies, something Harris is incapable of doing.

There’s a standing invite for Harris, I doubt she’ll take it.

He couldn’t continue with the town hall because there were two medical emergencies in the crowd with paramedics treating them.

You want him to continue taking questions in that scenario? He couldn’t end it either and have people leaving walking by as people are being treated, so he filled time.

Harris did a “town hall” where she took no questions at all and any interview she does with anyone but Fox is sympathetic to her.

Re: US Election 2024
 

As I have no intention of listening to it, for a counterpoint I’ll simply offer this.

https://x.com/mikecosper/status/1850...56-Kgau3lzowJw
He’s an author apparently, and happens to be in my ‘for you’ feed at the moment.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1729962523

Re: US Election 2024
 

As you have no intention of listening to it, you have nothing to add to the conversation on that interview, especially the comments of a nobody I’ve ever heard of.

Re: US Election 2024
 

If anyone wants some highlights this YouTube channel is a decent one for bipartisan analysis in that they have a Democrat and Republican as their hosts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DI9QkunnJw

TL;DR: It seems like it was a smart move to go on, he came across well but it wasn't an adversarial interview. They think Harris should take the risk and go on.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Oh god spare me the how are you question. If she sticks to her plan she'll rob a term in office wasting time asking everyone how they are :sleep:

Re: US Election 2024
 

:confused:

Anyway, watching videos of American politics and their rallies, I am so glad to live here, where we all—bar a few weirdos—are generally quite cynical about politicians and don't usually argue in the streets or break up friendships over it.

The stakes are higher over there I guess with bigger differences over things like abortion than we have. They're also a massive country so it's easier to demonise each other. It's hard to think of each other as enemies when we all live quite close to each other and operate under one media landscape. That last part is changing with social media but a lot of those people remain very much 'online'.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Skip to 4:40

https://youtu.be/iO6Ta86wCDI

Re: US Election 2024
 

It was a smart move, and it wasn’t an adversarial interview, it was a discussion. That’s what Rogan does. He did push on a few things, particularly on Trump’s assertion that he was robbed of the 2020 election.

If Harris agreed to go with Rogan, I would expect him to treat her just the same.

I just don’t think she could do it.

She is not a capable candidate.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Oh, I have plenty to add, as and when I find snippets worth sharing. If that makes you cross … well, tough.

Please don’t forget that elections are decided by lots of nobodies making their minds up about the candidates and voting accordingly. The nobody I quoted has more influence over this election than either of us.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Which bit did you like best, when he admitted losing the last election and Rogan laughing in his face?

---------- Post added at 02:38 ---------- Previous post was at 01:55 ----------

It had to be her iirc or else they wouldn't have been able to use the campaign funds the two of them had already raised, someone new would start from zero, iirc

Re: US Election 2024
 

No, when he said I don’t know why people always pick up on what I say.

And Rogan laughs at him and says because you say some wild shit!

---------- Post added at 08:22 ---------- Previous post was at 08:19 ----------

It didn’t have to be her, they should have held a primary in which she could have gone up against anyone that fancied it.

There will always be very rich people willing to bankroll a candidate.

Re: US Election 2024
 

So true…

https://wapo.st/3YHylII

Timothy Mellon
REPUBLICAN
Railroad magnate and heir
Total large donations: $197M

Richard & Elizabeth Uihlein
REPUBLICAN
Shipping magnates
Total large donations: $139M

Miriam Adelson
REPUBLICAN
Physician and widow of businessman Sheldon Adelson
Total large donations: $136M

Elon Musk
REPUBLICAN
Billionaire technology executive
Total large donations: $132.2M

Kenneth Griffin
REPUBLICAN
Hedge fund manager
Total large donations: $103.7M

Jeff & Janine Yass
REPUBLICAN
Financier and education advocate
Total large donations: $96.2M

Paul Singer
REPUBLICAN
Hedge fund manager and activist investor
Total large donations: $63.4M

Michael Bloomberg
DEMOCRAT
Former mayor of New York City
Total large donations: $47.4M

Stephen & Christine Schwarzman
REPUBLICAN
Investor and philanthropist
Total large donations: $40M

Dustin Moskovitz
DEMOCRAT
Facebook co-founder
Total large donations: $38.9M

Re: US Election 2024
 

Arnie has terminated all MAGA hopes of a Trump endorsement …. The former Republican governor of California has endorsed Harris in a lengthy tweet this afternoon. He’s hardly enthusiastic about it but says it’s less bad than the alternative. Ouch.

https://x.com/schwarzenegger/status/...56-Kgau3lzowJw

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1730313503

Re: US Election 2024
 

How the Mail Online & Daily Mail reported it…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1730321062

Re: US Election 2024
 

Who cares about Arnie,


The real story of the last 24hrs has been Biden calling trump supporters …….approx 50% of the country………Garbage.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...sult-115288185

The Dems, and the Democratic propagandist main stream media, have been in full damage limitation mode all day.

It’s her “basket of deplorables” moment.

Harris was in DC about 5 mins away from the White House and the sitting president wasn’t even invited to support her…………..

Instead, he threw her under the bus, as his comment overtook any and all headlines from her event.

Not the first time either, as she was deriding DeSantis for not engaging with her (why would he) regarding hurricane relief. Biden went on record saying he and DeSantis were in constant contact and working together.

I think Biden would happily see Harris perish, after submitting to her coup.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Schwarzenegger was never going to endorse Trump anyway, he hates him.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Yes his comment was in retaliation for the 'joke' calling Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. Hardly a big deal really.

As for rest of what you said:rolleyes:

Re: US Election 2024
 

Told by a “comedian” (I’ve put it in brackets as I didn’t find it funny) but a comedian none the less.

Biden is the sitting president of the country, and he just called half of his country’s citizens….”garbage”. There is no comparison and for you to try and make one is imbecilic.

Is bang on, thanks for asking.

Re: US Election 2024
 

I’ve said it before … for someone who has professed not to be that bovvered, you seem to have drunk an awful lot of the Donald’s kool-aid.

Every senior Republican who decides to publicly endorse a candidate from the other party is saying something everyone else should care about. I can’t imagine why you’d even try to suggest otherwise. How about Andy Burnham getting up at the next election and telling everyone to vote Tory? Would that be a ‘who cares’ moment?

Re: US Election 2024
 

It was imbecilic for you to suggest i was making a comparison. When I clearly stated it was a retort to what was said at Trump's rally. Those Puerto Ricans are US citizens, so to even try to make such a hideous joke about them being garbage is ultimately racist and bang out of order. From the other things said at that rally I don't even think the guy was joking.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Arnie is a “senior republican” ? A decade and a half ago, maybe two…..not now. He’s nobody and his opinion carries about as much weight as an anorexic moth.


I propose RFK jr and Tulsi Gabbard for the counter argument.

The outcome doesn’t matter to me as I have no control over it. I’m on record that want I Trump to win …..just for the hell of it.

I will question hypocrisy, bullshit and rampant TDS.

What are your thoughts on the Biden….garbage…comment?

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------

<removed>

Re: US Election 2024
 

Pretty much the opposite of this, seeing as the unknown comedian was given a platform at Trump’s set-piece closing rally and it’s inconceivable that Team Trump didn’t know what he was going to say. His words are Trump-endorsed. And if not, Trump and his lieutenants could have distanced themselves from them afterwards (they didn’t). Instead, a lot of Puerto Ricans will be wondering whether it’s a good idea to vote GOP. A significant number of them live in knife-edge states like Pennsylvania.

Biden isn’t standing for election and will be out of office in 2 months. He is also clearly on a downward cognitive pathway. So, at this stage, who cares?

This is a fairly obvious contrast you ought to be able to differentiate.

Re: US Election 2024
 

You already proposed RFK Jr when he endorsed Trump, despite him never having been elected to a Democratic office you said that was then a big deal:

But now it's Schwarzenegger who has been elected as a Republican Governor that isn't a big deal?

At least be consistent when shilling for Trump. No one here will make a difference to the election so there isn't a need to act as Trump's press officer or be hypocritical about it.

If RJK backing Trump is important then Schwarzenegger backing Harris is as well.

In reality, I don't think either makes much of a difference. The people receptive to their messages are already going to be voting for Trump or Harris respectfully.

Re: US Election 2024
 

OK…..just being consistent, can’t have a go at me for that?

Schwarzenegger was Governor from 2003-2011, in political terms almost a lifetime ago. Considering California has been Dem ever since, and further considering that Arnie is no longer a superstar and only a DTV draw…..his opinion or endorsement means very little …….to nothing.

I’m not shilling, but I will call out bullshit where I see it

No….. RFK…invites former Democrats to legitimately vote republic……………red wall anyone?

Re: US Election 2024
 

A guy that had a slot on the same stage as Trump and was in front of millions of people, saying those things about fellow Americans is as low as it gets.

So it's not OK for Biden to say it but it's fine for the GOP? Trump spouts vile rhetoric and resorts to name calling every time he speaks. He is nasty and no wonder some republicans are saying they are voting Kamala, should show how off-putting Trump is.

Re: US Election 2024
 

If only it was just the comedian, it was a string of guest speakers all trying do out do each other in the douche bag stakes and the crowd lapped it up, you can put comedian in italics as much as you want but he knew his audience and shady vance can say as much as he likes that he didn't hear the joke but the party can't say they didn't book him, vet and approve the material just like they can't for the rest of their guests

Re: US Election 2024
 

The Don loves hate, division and mocking any minority. Just like that classy mime he made of a disabled person. It works for him.
I wish I could say he's alone but he represents a lot of that bigoted people. It's a very sick country, and it'll get worse if he gets power again.

---------- Post added at 07:24 ---------- Previous post was at 07:19 ----------

That's just weird, like saying you want a nuclear war, for your personal entertainment.....

Re: US Election 2024
 

And RFK has never been elected to a Democratic office. Schwarzenegger might be long past his term in office but he at least was, at one point, a senior member of the Republican Party. If his time out of office renders his endorsement of little value then RFK having never been a senior member of the Democratic party means even less.

That's consistency.

Not contorting yourself into his position when RFK is a more significant figure in Democratic politics than Schwarzenegger is in Republican politics.



Schwarzenegger invites former Republicans to legitimately vote for Democrats. Urban white men anyone?

Neither is going to matter much. The audience listening to them has already decided long ago.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Trump platforming a racist comedian and not distancing himself from that comedian's views speaks to racism or if we're being generous, cognitive decline. Neither makes for a good President.

Re: US Election 2024
 

I know it’s Halloween, but I don’t think it’s very dignified for a Presidential Candidate to dress up as a pumpkin…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1730385799

this is the original photo - it’s not been enhanced/filtered

Re: US Election 2024
 

And how is this relevant to the topic pube? :rolleyes:

Re: US Election 2024
 

How is a picture of a Presidential Candidate undertaking a campaign event with enough bronzer on his face to match a hi-vis jacket relevant to the 2024 US Election?

Re: US Election 2024
 

Ok...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2024/10/2.gif

Re: US Election 2024
 

Difference being yours is made-up/modified and mine came unmodified from a Trump campaign event…

Re: US Election 2024
 

I think their confused one minute he's garbage then the next it's a certain nationality :confused:

Re: US Election 2024
 

The last time Trump got in little did he know

Re: US Election 2024
 

I think you're being over generous. He knows even less than that.

Re: US Election 2024
 

he knows the labour party have been ploting against him,and if he wins he won't forget it

Re: US Election 2024
 

It couldn't be connected to old man Joe calling his supporters garbage could it :confused:

Re: US Election 2024
 

Why would that make him make (up) his face to match his hi-vis?

Re: US Election 2024
 

Meanwhile in Wisconsin, the Donald simulates oral sex on a microphone stand.

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2024/11/1.jpg

https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other...es/ar-AA1toCBl

Re: US Election 2024
 

Sorry to be thick but where is this sex act :confused:

Your obsessed with his tan. Who cares :confused:

Re: US Election 2024
 

Is it a tan though?

Seriously, when the President represents the USA in world events and an flatulent orange man in diapers turns up then the credibility of the nation suffers.

Re: US Election 2024
 

yea but joe is on the way out

Re: US Election 2024
 

Love it:eek:

---------- Post added at 11:50 ---------- Previous post was at 11:50 ----------

So true

Re: US Election 2024
 

Easy enough to search for an animated version of that image. Keep the eye-bleach handy though.

https://x.com/justin_stangel/status/...56-Kgau3lzowJw

Re: US Election 2024
 

I was looking at your original link. I don't get the whole sex joke to be honest he seems a little angry if anything.

From your second link he's repositioning the mic holder then makes a back & forth action. Is the latter a blowjob? The former a handjob? :confused:

Re: US Election 2024
 

You could be generous and say he probably isn’t miming a hand job, but it’s pretty clear he’s jokingly fellating the thing afterwards. Especially in the context of the whole incident, in which he raged for 4-5 minutes because the mic stand was broken and he had to hold the mic in his tiny hands.

I suspect he jiggled the mic stand to emphasise its brokenness and it occurred to him at that point that he could make a sex joke out of it, hence the head-bobbing that followed.

Alot of ppl think all hell is gonna break loose after the election...... (Im reading)

I think all of us here are pretty sane and stable <<>>I think we know whos gonna win!!

Re: US Election 2024
 

Yes hopefully Kamala

Re: US Election 2024
 

Twice this morning I’ve had threaded tweets in my ‘for you’ feed fail to load. They work if I first go to the user’s profile page and find the thread there.

On both occasions they are tweet threads that are discussing Kamala Harris in a positive light.

Of course Elon Musk would definitely not stoop to suppressing discussion of politics he doesn’t like, would he. After all, ‘X’ is the world’s town square for open debate …

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1730712077

Re: US Election 2024
 

I see shops are boarding up in anticipation of Trump losing and his knuckle dragging voters going on the rampage.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Some of his comments at his Pennsylvania rally last night were really downbeat* … he knows the Selzer poll in Iowa is massive red flag for how he’s likely doing across the country and the campaign will also have their own internal polls, unadulterated by the leading questions, skewed samples or betting syndicates that have made the national polls so useless. They really don’t expect to win this thing and are already pushing the ‘stolen election’ narrative loud and clear. Don’t expect them to wait until January to kick off the rioting this time.

* Contrast with Kamala Harris who was happy to go on SNL at the weekend and have Maya Rudolph send her up to her face. Relaxed, happy. As I’ve been saying, the candidates’ demeanour and campaign tactics give us clues as to what their internal polls are telling them and what they *believe* the outcome will be. Trump believes he’s going to lose bigly. Harris believes she’s going to win.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Really nobody knows now. There are so many narratives you can spin either way about who's going to win. The polling is 50/50 and there is a strong suspicion all the pollsters are 'herding', i.e putting their thumbs on the scale to match each other so they're not out on a limb, which means we could see a surprise on the election night where one candidate was doing quite well but we just didn't have the polls to show us that.

You can easily see Trump or Harris winning quite easily and it not being even close. It's a recipe for disaster actually because the polls have primed people to expect a razor thin election so if one of them does win easily then the conspiracies will be out.

Re: US Election 2024
 

We have to hope this man does not get back into power.


Remember this is the guy who suggested that injecting bleach into our body would get rid of Covid!

Re: US Election 2024
 

Not a lot say really. Americans.... Lovely people, friendly as hell, but weird AF. A continent of cult like backwards nutjobs. Those 2, the best a country that size can offer... Again, not a lot to say really.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Re: US Election 2024
 

It’s not going to be a ‘big win’, it is extremely tight, even in those swing States. I think that Harris may have the edge.

Re: US Election 2024
 

I actually can’t see Trump winning easily. He has his fired-up MAGA base who will turn up and clap and hoot like performing seals regardless of what he says or does, but I can’t see there being enough dumb people in America to give him a complete and utter free pass to be the rapey mysoginist con man he freely shows himself to be at every opportunity.

And, I can’t stress this enough, he really, really, really neither looks nor sounds like he thinks he’s winning, whereas Laughin’ Kamala so clearly thinks she is.

*If* Trump wins, it will be on a knife edge (i.e. the polls were near-enough correct). But as you’ve observed, there is ample evidence of pollsters correcting so as to avoid being the outlier, making it look as if it could go either way on a knife edge while in fact there’s ample evidence that Harris is romping away with it.

The Salzer poll in Iowa has a cast iron reputation and she has just returned a +3 for Harris. At this stage in 2016 she gave Trump +7 against Clinton; trump took the state with an 9.4 %age point margin. In 2020, she gave Trump a +7-point poll lead over Biden; Trump’s winning margin was 8.2%age points. Further back, her poll gave Obama a +5 point lead in 2012; he won Iowa with a 5.6 percentage-point lead.

Ann Selzer has now given Harris a +3 point lead over Trump. Even allowing for the margin of error (3.4 points) for Harris to come close in Iowa is enough of a hint at how well she is likely to be doing everywhere she needs to do well in order to win convincingly.

The likely reason for Harris doing so well - and, to be charitable to the main nationwide pollsters who I believe are getting it catastrophically wrong - is that the overturning of Roe v Wade, which Trump enthusiastically owns as his sop to the evangelical right, has triggered a lot of women who don’t want state legislatures telling them what they can and can’t do with their bodies. An unusually high female turnout is bad news for Trump and pollsters whose models don’t adequately allow for it.

https://www.newsweek.com/who-ann-sel...harris-1979294

Re: US Election 2024
 

We and them have to learn from this and previous elections and referendums and stop the rich and powerful manipulating them for their own ends, I thought it sucked massively when Russia's oligarchs ruled the roost only for it to turn out they were the puppets, not the master and this is worse imo. The betting market is pointing to Donny simply because of a few massive bets being placed in his favour and I'm pretty sure their will be examples on the other side too and imho it's got to stop, this manipulation and misinformation harms democracy and legitimacy to levels where an alternative form of government may seem preferable to many.

Re: US Election 2024
 

The polls are imperfect so whilst Harris (happy) and Trump (unhappy) have their own polls, they're not sharing their polling with us.

I suspect Trump supporters could be in for an upset and I hope they don't resort to violence.

As Chris points out, Trump's moves on abortion don't go down well with a lot of female voters.

Re: US Election 2024
 

This^

The Polybet nonsense Elmo keeps pushing has reached ludicrous heights now, giving Trump something like 65%. It is now widely known that 4 accounts belonging to one person (code name ‘French Elephant’) have put more than $44million worth of micro-bets on Trump. Betting markets might once have been a good guide to political outcomes but once a few wealthy, motivated people caught onto it they became useless as a guide to anything.

Re: US Election 2024
 

No he didn't

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...ments-about-d/

and he didn't say "there were fine people on both sides" when talking about white supremacists.

And he didn't say there would be a bloodbath if he wasn't elected.

---------- Post added at 13:05 ---------- Previous post was at 13:02 ----------

In the US, that could be applied to either side.

Re: US Election 2024
 

It wasn’t bleach, true…

From your link…

Re: US Election 2024
 

He said there would be a bloodbath for the whole country if he was not elected. His aids said later that he was referring to the automotive industry. I think most people applying critical thinking to this multi-convicted politician
would be sceptical of this backtracking.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...on-2024-03-17/

Re: US Election 2024
 

Take the red hat off, it cutting of the blood to your brain, my post specifically referenced we and they meaning the populations as a whole and the fact I actually said both sides later on in the post should really have clarified things but instead you decide to go with the old faithful both sides are at it defence

Timothy Mellon
REPUBLICAN
Railroad magnate and heir
Total large donations: $197M

Richard & Elizabeth Uihlein
REPUBLICAN
Shipping magnates
Total large donations: $139M

Miriam Adelson
REPUBLICAN
Physician and widow of businessman Sheldon Adelson
Total large donations: $136M

Elon Musk
REPUBLICAN
Billionaire technology executive
Total large donations: $132.2M

Kenneth Griffin
REPUBLICAN
Hedge fund manager
Total large donations: $103.7M

Jeff & Janine Yass
REPUBLICAN
Financier and education advocate
Total large donations: $96.2M

Paul Singer
REPUBLICAN
Hedge fund manager and activist investor
Total large donations: $63.4M

Michael Bloomberg
DEMOCRAT
Former mayor of New York City
Total large donations: $47.4M

Stephen & Christine Schwarzman
REPUBLICAN
Investor and philanthropist
Total large donations: $40M

Dustin Moskovitz
DEMOCRAT
Facebook co-founder
Total large donations: $38.9M

(Thanks Hugh)

Two Democrats sneaked in giving the magas the chance to legitimately say well the other side are doing it too whilst ignoring they're doing it much, much more but fine stop them all from donating as very few or none are doing it with honourable intentions. I said after the brexit vote I would be happy if it brought about a change in our politics where everyone's vote counted and the lobbying money was banned but instead of that it's been doubled down on at the expense of pretty much everyone else and it's worse in America, I bet they long for the days of Clinton, Obama and the Bushes, halcyon days compared to what they have now.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Anyone doubting that Trump expects to lose need look no further than this clip of a rally in Pennsylvania yesterday. In essence “I’m clever, I’ve been warning you what the other side will do, but now I won’t get the chance to fix it because they’ve rigged the election”.

In 2020 he waited until Wednesday morning when most of the results were in before claiming the election was stolen from him. This time he didn’t even get beyond the final weekend of the campaign.

Trump is losing, bigly. And he knows it. The strategy now is to delegitimise the result and unleash his pet domestic terrorists, the Proud Boys (whose colours he started wearing a week or so ago, when he began to be seen in a black and gold MAGA hat instead of the usual red and white).

https://x.com/phillipspobrien/status...56-Kgau3lzowJw

Re: US Election 2024
 

He was going on about them rigging it against him before he won in 2016. It's just his thing.

I would be wary of going by these vibes. I doubt they have internal polling that is dramatically different to the point that the campaigns privately know it's a done deal. If it were that certain we would have more evidence from state polls other than Iowa, there might be more evidence in the early voting or party registration....

All we have is that Iowa poll and some other signs that he is weaker amongst rural white men than in previous elections. Might be enough for him to pull a massive sulk on stage but we might be reading too much into it.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Piers Morgan reckons Trump is heading for victory, Boris Johnson features too

https://youtu.be/xP5aX6whDwU

Re: US Election 2024
 

If you bet on the opposite of anything Piers Morgan says, you’ll never go far wrong. ;)

Re: US Election 2024
 

Background info

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0en401330jo

Latest

https://www.reuters.com/legal/judge-...ay-2024-11-04/

Re: US Election 2024
 

And your point is?

---------- Post added at 18:31 ---------- Previous post was at 18:30 ----------

No, he said it would be a bloodbath for US automotive industry if he wasn’t elected, as China was going to build a big plant in Mexico.

---------- Post added at 18:37 ---------- Previous post was at 18:31 ----------

I would consider staging a coup against the sitting president, who was intending to run, and instilling the vice-President without a primary, as the new presidential candidate………….as manipulative.

Re: US Election 2024
 

That proposing injecting disinfectant into your body is not a reasoned, or reasonable, proposal…

Re: US Election 2024
 

Well, I think we're at the point where there isn't going to be a big October surprise. It's been quite a boring run really. There was the drama when Harris replaced Biden, her surge that eventually equalled out to about 50/50 and it's stayed there.

I think we can be sure that Biden would have lost this but now it's all up in the air.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Post removed. Move on from irrelevant nit picking about what was said years ago.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Now we playing the waiting game as all polls are open

Re: US Election 2024
 

I guess it’ll be lunchtime tomorrow when we get a pretty good idea of what happened.

Re: US Election 2024
 

We might get an idea tonight if the polls are wrong in one direction or another. A lot of the states we need to see the results for will be the first to close. Fewer mail in ballots this time so counting should be quicker.

If we get a Harris win in North Carolina or Georgia, or either wins Pennsylvania overnight that would go a long way.

In the event Harris has won because of a surge in female voters then I think we would know that early. You would see the signs in the early states and she would win some we didn't expect. She could cut off Trump's chances quite quickly.

In the event Trump has won 2016 style we would know that early as well with better-than-expected returns from Pennsylvania, better than last time, showing him on course to win that.

I think if the theory that women will be the surprise factor in this election - and undercounted in the polls - is true then Harris wins in a landslide. It's a demographic that's enough to carry so many 'tight' states for her.

Re: US Election 2024
 

I doubt there will be a landslide of any type or cause. I reckon both sides will be arguing this until the weekend.

Hope I’m wrong. Regardless of who wins, the best outcome will be a clear result.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Some Republican accounts have become extremely confident in the last few hours claiming huge returns in Florida, Nevada and Arizona

Re: US Election 2024
 

I’m seeing GOP and Dem accounts making mutually contradictory claims about the same places. At this point one or both are engaged in voter suppression, trying to make the opposition depressed and decide there’s no point.

I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if the GOP-supporting accounts are being amplified on Elon’s orders. I never engage with them and by rights the algorithm should note that and modify my ‘for you’ feed accordingly, but they’re multiplying with each passing hour at the moment.

Re: US Election 2024
 

I have a feeling it'll be a Trump victory though its not one i want. after everything trump is still neck and neck with Harris AFTER EVERYTHING.

I think the dems wont be as eager to come out and vote this time because of Kamala and the fact they may have forgotten the first trump presidency... The maga lot are ridiculously loyal to Donald.

Lots of talk about immigration and the economy but trump didn't do anything about immigration the first time and the economy is better under biden now but gotta give it to trump he's masterful at speeches.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Quite a lot of shift to Trump in some rural areas.

Re: US Election 2024
 

trump doing a lot stronger than I thought already. in 2020 trump led again but then the mail in ballots were opened and biden surpassed trump. we know this year mail in ballots will play much less of a role

As of 7:25pm ET, Donald Trump has a 61% chance of winning the presidency.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Is that the nonsense tv channels are spouting, honestly, it's far too early to be giving any sort of accurate overall indication of a winner, what I would say though is based on what we actually know so far is that Harris should be pretty happy, especially with Pennsylvania

Re: US Election 2024
 

So we're not getting a landslide for Harris. The polls seem to be right.

---------- Post added at 02:24 ---------- Previous post was at 01:52 ----------

Moving more and more towards Trump, very much like 2016 so far...

---------- Post added at 03:18 ---------- Previous post was at 02:24 ----------

Very much looks like Trump is gonna win this. See in the morning.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Trump appears to be in the lead atm, 230 v 169, with 14 results (States ?) to go, vote wise, he has 51.1 % atm.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Trump still in the lead and has taken the swing state of Nirth Carolina. But gap has narrowed with Trump on 230 and Harris on 210.

Re: US Election 2024
 

Now 266 v 194 for Trump,. 270 needed for a win.
Bit of a surprise for the gap to be that big.

---------- Post added at 07:25 ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 ----------

Where did you get that "210" from?

Re: US Election 2024
 

God help us!!!!!

Re: US Election 2024
 

Yes America! :woot:

Re: US Election 2024
 

Not a landslide, :confused: I told you guys , watch out Kier:erm:

Re: US Election 2024
 

Well, indeed, it would seem the “polls” did another bang up job! Had us all fooled.

It’s not even going to close.

I’m now looking forward to seeing Trump, not do, what all the hysterical people with TDS say he was going to do.

It’s a great day for democracy.

Re: US Election 2024
 

The inevitable numerous meltdowns are going to be fun to see.

Re: US Election 2024
 

My 16 year old who is now studying Government and Politics A Level was very much ‘why?’, ‘how?’ at the news this morning. Based on living there for a bit (albeit in the fairly liberal north west but in a less well off area) and working with Americans on an almost daily basis, I gave my perspective. Here’s what I shared;

Americans are scared
The US is an incredibly powerful nation and people living there should be rightly proud of that. However, under this there is an undercurrent of fear. If you ask gun owners in the USA why they have guns, they will say for protection. In another example, I frequent cooking sub reddits and the number of Americans who are scared of using plastics, scared of leaving food unrefrigerated, etc. is huge. This is very different from the ‘I am sure it will all work out’ attitude most brits have. Trump is very good at leaning on those fears - Kamala Harris will let all the immigrants in, take away your guns, etc. Fear is stronger than hope

Americans love winning
Winning is hugely important to Americans but more important is the other side losing. Alex Horne tried to launch Taskmaster in the USA and it bombed because everyone was so competitive. If you look at successful panel shows in the UK like Have I Got News for You, Taskmaster, etc. we don’t actually care about who wins as long as we were entertained. A lot of Americans do not have that psyche. On top of that is the zero sum game where it’s so important not just to win but to make sure the other side loses. ‘Owning the libs’ is a strong attractor. They might not agree 100% with what someone says or does but if it disadvantages people they don’t like, then that’s great. This means that compromise is a lose lose outcome. Kamala Harris saying we will talk to Republicans who don’t agree with her is not a winning look.

Strong leaders are attractive
This is not so just a USA thing but a more right of centre politics thing and is in danger of evoking Godwins Law… Fearful people who like winning love a strong leader, someone who is channeling their thoughts, someone to look up to. They can quickly support people with those traits as ‘one of our own’ even when their background shows they clearly aren’t. It’s a type of confirmation bias. Now we British are very strong with that trait. Look at politicians who have very strong personal followings that are treated as ‘one of us’. Not naming names here but privileged upbringings, public school and Oxbridge educated but somehow are branded as an average Joe. Trump leans on that and his supporters believe he is on their side. Kamala Harris appeared more distant and removed from the general public.

The Democrats will learn from this but it does show how strong a tool populism is

Re: US Election 2024
 

Harris was a Diversity Hire and conveniently sidestepped any democratic selection process, which all goes to show that nobody knows "what she's about".
The only arguments presented for voting for her seem to be a combination of "she's not Trump", "she's female", and "she's a person of Colour".

Re: US Election 2024
 

It'll be interesting to see what the Democrats do now. In some ways, I think they might be strong in 2028 as they won't be the incumbent and they won't be running against Trump, but how they respond to this loss will decide what kind of candidates they have.

If Trump does bring in tariffs, then you would expect the economy to be good in the states with the industry he protects but at the national economy's cost. We would need to see how that plays out.

---------- Post added at 09:43 ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 ----------

Yes, because votes were counted, people seem to trust the result and (I hope) there won't be a Democratic Party attempt to invalidate it.

It's a great day for Democracy when people are allowed to vote and that vote is respected, irrespective of who wins.

I am not happy with this result, to say the least, but there is some comfort that this won't collapse into civil disorder and hopefully Americans will respect how important the peaceful transfer of power is.