Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

It takes a long time for a political party to get a reputation for economic competence but once lost it will take a long time to regain that reputation.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Many buyers want housing prices to fall. If the fall is evenly split across the market (big house prices fall as much as small houses) then it may allow people to move up freeing properties to move in. Even if you are an owner as long as not selling then a drop in house prices is less an issue unless over borrowing. It could also lower interest in buying up property for investment except it may not, if prices drop and people with capital then see investment opportunity it doesn't help at all.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Quite a few Tory outriders are now taking the line the currency collapse is Labour's fault.

Lord Ashcroft today: https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/sta...48712921157633

Daniel Hannan: Daniel Hannan: No, the pound isn’t crashing over a trifling batch of tax cuts. It’s because the markets are terrified of Starmer.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

yeah of course people are gonna buy that BS hahaha

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Oh I can think of at least one…

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The Conservative government have been in power for 12 years and yet it always seems its somebody elses fault rather then their own.

The really must think that Joe Public are mugs which of course they ain't.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The magic money tree is out. The Bank of England will start QE buying up government bonds. “Whatever scale is necessary” to restore orderly market conditions.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

This is sheer desperation. They know their time is up, I suspect from now on they will get quieter & quieter as they line up their exit routes. Expect a raft of "exciting" big business board appointments for next year.

I think, when we look back from 2024, this time will be pivotal: the death of the Queen, the final, long awaited, reveal of what the Tory Party really is about and the seeming electability of the opposition party. A line in the sand on how this country is run ...

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Seems appropriate to get this one out again…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1664361283

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Prepare to read plenty of smears scaremongering about the “left” despite a) it being a legitimate political stance and b) minimal influence over any major political party.

The bogeyman of high taxes and state involvement won’t stake up when the Tories are free wheeling the economy into a recession and the fake free markets have no solutions. Culture wars are irrelevant when people are getting hit this hard in the pocket so the right cannot return to its safe hunting ground.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The Bank of England has intervened in the gilt market due to concerns over pension funds:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/sta...68642617995264

I don't actually understand this but economics journalists are saying it's bad.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Something to do with final salary pensions being linked to 30-year bonds, I believe…

https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1...mH8UoyYdNCNQMQ

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1664362317

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

It may be related to the fact that this is causing the value of final-salary pension schemes to reduce. Left unresolved, this would lead to more potential pension deficits and employers and the government having to top up these pension funds.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Sam Coates from Sky.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Thank goodness Gordon Brown gave the Bank of England its independence!

Think how much worse it would be if it wasn't! I daren't!

The absence of Conservative supporters actively commenting in this thread suggests to me that they now acknowledge the unfunded mini budget was exactly what the economists warned beforehand it would be: a costly error.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I think so yes. If you’re in a defined contribution scheme (which is what almost all private sector pension schemes are now) then if the market falls, the value of the pension falls, but that’s a “feature” of the product so no problem (well, it’s a problem if it’s your pension but not for the provider, because they continue to pay what they promised). If on the other hand you’re one of the lucky ones in a defined benefit scheme, which is what final salary schemes are, then the pension provider has a massive problem if the value of the fund is squeezed too much, because they are already committed to pay out a certain amount so they have to find the shortfall from somewhere.

One of the electoral risks for Truss here is that, while there are very few private sector final salary pension schemes open today, a significant portion of the core Tory vote will have been in one in the past, and if their pension schemes start collapsing and needing rescued by the Pension Protection Scheme, unless they are already retired they wouldn’t get their full pension from the PPS, and the PPS’ annual updating to allow for inflation is capped at 2.5% which is likely to be far less generous than their pension scheme would have been (mine is capped at 5%).

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

It says you're boring the arse off us and we just can't be bothered with this drivel

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Good to know that that you class the GCSE levels of economics on display by the PM and the chancellor as drivel.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

What are the chances they u-turn on the mini-budget?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

To date, their approach has been to double down. I don't know how much worse things need to get before they can be persaded to postpone some of the unfunded elements of that minibudget.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

We’re into tealeaf reading territory now, but … I think Truss has a messianic belief in what she’s doing and might be prepared to go to the country rather than doing a u-turn.

She thinks she’s Thatcher reincarnate and you might remember her attitude to u-turns.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

If they’re resigned to losing the next election anyway well they might as well accelerate the destruction of the state for profit.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

That depends if they follow the Boris Johnson style of regular u-turns.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Maybe there will be another no confidence vote and Boris gets back in as the lesser of 2 evils

Truss was never going to be good. She has shown a history of flip flopping and generally can not be trusted due to her links to high finance. Surprised anyone is surprised tbh. Dunno if Sunak would have been better or more of the same. We need a leader that isn't about being rich and feeding the rich but dunno in politics if that kind of person exists

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Given labours purported lead in the polls (of course no guarantee that it extrapolates) is she really that stupid/arrogant ?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I think to date we've seen a clever, educated person make lots of silly mistakes but even I think this is unlikely.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

This from Lucy Fisher from Times Radio.

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/statu...92698306215936

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

A lucrative role in the private sector no doubt awaits. Probably with an organisation heavily betting against UK plc.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I think she may style herself as Thatcher and try to mimic that conviction but I am not sure she actually has it. It's just cosplay. When she was talking about tax cuts and borrowing in the leadership campaign I didn't sense a deep belief in what she was saying. She would struggle in response to Sunak for example, someone who deeply believed in it would adapt better in a debate as they had a true understanding of their argument.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

After a couple of days ?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Two interesting take-aways: How will MPs vote on the mini budget and will Kwarteng survive the financial turmoil?
https://www.ft.com/content/a46e53bb-...e-05f71d2e57ef

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Bank of England launches bond-buying programme to prevent 'material risk' to UK financial stability

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-e...panic-12706827

so basically the BOE trying to save the country from it own government

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I genuinely didn’t think this year could get any funnier than Boris being kicked out by his own backbenchers. But the Tories implosion from here very well could top that.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Had they not intervened pension funds were on the imminent brink of insolvency which is why the Bank of England had to act.

---------- Post added at 15:47 ---------- Previous post was at 15:41 ----------

Given the chaos of 4 leaders in 6 years they might try to get rid of Truss but the problem there is unless the leadership rules are changed they cannot have a leadership contest for another 11 months.

There is of course a small possibililty of a no confidence vote but that would be like turkey's voting for Christmas.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I'd pay good money to have the economy running as well as Project Fear predicted!

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

According to Beth Rigby on Sky News Treasury sources have said the Chancellor will not be resigning and there will be no reversal of policy.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Leaked footage of a recent meeting in Downing Street? :D

https://youtu.be/sRJby3PCfbo

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Interestingly, we all call this a mini budget, the press call this a mini budget but officially, this is a ‘fiscal event’ and not a budget. This means there’s no vote I am afraid. To lose a vote on the budget is pretty much a vote of no confidence as this would say the House of Commons does not agree on how the government is running the economy so they might be glad that there’s no vote!

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Where's Truss when it's all going pear-shaped. Will she pop up in Ukraine?

---------- Post added at 17:32 ---------- Previous post was at 17:30 ----------

Aah, a special fiscal event operation, not a budget. Understood. Full mobilisation of MPs not required just yet! :D

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

You know, I don't think they know what they're doing. (Much like a referee I witnessed last night .... tbf his mistakes won't destroy the Country...)

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Had to laugh at these two Tweets from The Independent's deputy political editor. :D
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1664389828https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

And now pensions are at risk.

Is there anyone left not in some financial danger from the plan to turn the UK into the biggest roulette wheel in the world?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I had thought another Wokingham area resident or someone else might take up the cause but it seems even they acknowledge it's an impossible task. Truss can't say she wasn't warned beforehand as she was.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

:shrug::shrug::shrug::shrug::shrug:

Seems to fit the present situation with this government.;)

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Liz Truss is getting crucified in a series of local radio interviews this morning.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

This is a national matter in which she could have done one interview instead of lots of small ones. Far better use of her time when she has an important to-do list.

Is she afraid of a big hitter taking her down in a national interview and was banking on a soft touch at local radio?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Local radio presenters are no soft touch Andrew.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Agreed but that must have been her thinking and it would have been a great opportunity for an upcoming Andrew Neill to make their mark

The PM can't guarantee that pensions are safe in the BBC Bristol interview! https://twitter.com/thhamilton/statu...04343230173185

I think even the Telegraph is seeing the light.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1575071034918813698

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Quite.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1664442827

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Journalists on Twitter are pointing out the around of local radio interviews was probably worse than a single national interview as the format meant the presenters were competing with each other to ask the most difficult question and they also had a head-ups on her approach as they had listened to their colleagues' interviews just prior.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Nick Robinson explained that these were all arranged prior to all this kerfuffle as a "lead up" to the Tory Party Conference starting this Sunday - happens most years.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Truss on the radio this morning

Martin Lewis immediately afterwards on Twitter

https://twitter.com/martinslewis/sta...J_dXvm4egIVBRg

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...7&d=1664444374

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/ut...p-unit-rates-/

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Well it turns out I was wrong and there might well need to be a vote as changes to taxation are involved. Interestingly, the vote deadline is very close to when the additional information will come from the Chancellor.

Here’s a Twitter thread on this - https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/stat...5v76W0qggmrc5Q

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Most people with half a brain knew this. My energy bills before all this kicked off were over £2,500 a year already.

---------- Post added at 11:54 ---------- Previous post was at 11:51 ----------

Apart from cutting the 45% rate, I'm struggling to see what else about the mini-budget was so abhorrent? that everybody is losing their minds over.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

To sum up the farce, they have wheeled out John Redwood who is now blaming the BoE for the Gilt/Pensions near-disaster and not Government policy. Mad as a box of frogs ..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1575196773165023243

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Careful now, you’ll give dear Sephi a headache

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I siuspect Seph has probably now seen the light with Redwood. ;)

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Wheeling out the magic money tree for a policy proven, decade after decade, in country after country, to not promote growth generally destabilises the markets. The fact the Bank of England had to step in shows the markets have lost confidence in the UK, making debt more expensive for the Government pushing up the cost of lending (mortgages). On top of that the forecast drop in house prices risking negative equity for some, and diminishing the nest egg value for their kids for others.

Other than that, it was all quite tame.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

It was the whole package of tax cuts without any spending cuts or a costing. Basically just saying let's ramp up the deficit and the debt and they're not convinced it'll grow the economy making the U.K a riskier place to keep your cash.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I agree, but perhaps some people would have been confused with the Prime Minister stating that she was

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

And yet no one batted an eyelid as they bankrolled people to stay at home for two years and printed a load of cash to pay for it.


Instead of a new era of austerity that would impact the most poorest (Which I'm sure certain individuals on here would have criticised fiercely and demanded the money tree be shaken for the most vulnerable). They have shaken the tree given everybody more cash back and softened the energy cost hit.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

:rofl:

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The energy package isn't what caused the panic. It was the tax cuts. The Government is telling lenders that they're going to continue to borrow money, even more money in fact, but they're also going to cut their income steam without any mention of cutting their spending. They're also saying they're not going to bother showing them any forecasts, budgets or plans on how that works in practice.

The result for the poorest isn't great because they're not actually getting much money back and the subsequent inflation will push living costs higher anyway. The Government didn't actually do anything that'll tackle inflation other than the energy cost freeze in that mini-budget which is why people expect the BoE to increase interest rates.

No one is saying you need austerity. They're saying you need a competent plan. The Government could have announced a big spending stimulus package and it might have worked had it been a cost to have 'x' impact over 'x' time giving confidence to the people buying Government debt that they were in control.

If anything Truss is now going to feel forced into spending cuts to explain away her tax cuts.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

A fair assessment therefore would be that Truss has at most half a brain ?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Fair play to Pierre to step up as the first to attempt to defend the Government’s mismanagement of the economy, if I’d to place a bet it’d have been on someone else. 0/10 for his sleight of hand trying to claim it was energy and not the “mini-budget”.

The Covid comparison is entertaining too - what was the genuine alternative? Head in the sand? Almost all major economies had to do similar and those that didn’t haven’t had economic advantage, hence the financial markets had nowhere else to bet on for better returns.

It’s also worth noting that the major central banks were supporting the move, lowering the cost of borrowing in the process. Monetary and fiscal policy were aligned. Unlike the current car crash uncosted borrowing as the cost is forecast to be the highest in decades.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

At last, a sane voice. You have to admire the left for organising such a United front against these measures. These measures are exactly what is needed.

All this crap about everyone struggling to pay their bills, flocking to Aldi, etc. Well, I’m a pensioner myself, I’ve not changed my habits and my supermarket bills end up much the same as normal months. Although my fuel bill went up in April, I’ve now had a monthly £66 government rebate on my bill, not to mention the subsidy already paid out by the government.

Granted, the very poorest can’t pay more as they have nothing to pay with, but they have been helped at every turn by this Conservative government, which the left wantonly ignore to make it look as though they have been abandoned.

The fiscal measures are needed to turn the economy around. The only legitimate criticism that exists is that the detailed plan to pay off the debt has not been made available and the OBR has not been allowed to review it. Well, given that the people of this country needed their subsidy now, there was no time to lose in getting it out there. The government has not finalised the detailed plan to pay off the debt, although they know how to achieve it, and that plan will be forthcoming when it is complete in November. The OBR can then study it to its heart’s content.

The markets have reacted badly owing to the lack of detail, but they will get over it and things will return to normal.

Liz Truss has less than two years to prove what she’s made of and that her radical plans are robust. She is a woman on a mission, and she ain’t gonna hang around.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Got it.

Tax cuts cost = £37bn end of the world as we know it

Furlough = £70bn no sweat.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Except that there will be spending cuts, that has already been made clear. The Civil Service is to be cut down, saving salaries and building costs. Those quangos still need extinguishing where they are not providing essential services as well.

It has been made clear also the the planning rules are to be streamlined to assist companies to build things faster. The Brexit benefits have not yet been tapped into and we will have a bonfire of the EU regulations that have been holding us back as well.

The increased growth from a whole raft of measures including those already outlined in brief will help us pay off the debt.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Printing money like it was it going out of fashion, devaluing the currency, fuelling the current inflationary crisis that is driving this shitshow.

Yay!

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Nail on head, Pierre, but I think we’re wasting our time. They can’t see it, and they don’t want to see it.

They will not have the last laugh.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Tax cuts are a permanent cut to your income. Furlough was added to the debt. If the markets think you can meet your debt obligations they don't see it as a risk. If they think it is a risk then they want higher interest in return for lending to you.

The bank had no problem giving me a mortgage but if I decided to cut my income and replace the lost money by using a credit card then I would be seen as a risker proposition.

The Government gave the market's confidence they knew what they were doing with the furlough costs and now the Government isn't giving such confidence.

It's not as if I am making this up. You can see it in the markets.

Why did you bother starting this line of conservation if you're just going to be dishonest and sarcastic about it?

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

So you’ve already had the rebate and energy subsidy don’t come into effect until next month?

https://helpforhouseholds.campaign.g...E&gclsrc=aw.ds

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Devaluing the currency, relative to who?

---------- Post added at 14:40 ---------- Previous post was at 14:38 ----------

The point is that £37bn doesn’t trickle down, no matter how many right wing think tanks have claimed it could.

£70bn kept people in jobs and businesses afloat. It paid their bills.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

That isn't going to be nearly enough, you need to make proper spending cuts of billions. If that was announced alongside a forecast then maybe the markets wouldn't have reacted the way they did.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

:rofl: not like OB to make stuff up.

However shame on him for leaving Pierre to take the flack being the first to defend the Government. The late great Comical Ali stood there to the very end.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The rebate on my bill, I said, and that is available from October.

---------- Post added at 14:49 ---------- Previous post was at 14:46 ----------

I’ve had other things to do, jfman. I’m not here 24/7 like some of you!

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Time, and facts, have never stopped you being a mouthpiece for CCHQ before.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

This is all on the predication that the tax cuts will be a massive failure and not encourage any growth and therefore increase earnings. Basically "the markets" are betting on UKplc to fail.

But if the government had done nothing, where would the stimulus for growth come from?

The economy would just stagnate further.

You could say it is a gamble, and it is. But I'd rather somebody do something rather than sit on their hands.

If she pulls it off, she may save the Tories, if she fails, she's just the latest Tory PM to blow it.

I wasn't being sarcastic, just highlighting the disparity in thinking. The 37bn should be looked at as what it is meant to be - an investment not a loss.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Indeed the travel time to La La land is significant.

The very fact there are government economic advisors & MP’s saying how stupid this course of action, the fact that the BoE had to intervene to protect pension funds and yet you still try and defend the actions taken and incredulously try to blame it on the left

This is on the PM & the chancellor no one else, and you? You’re just delusional

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

And that prediction comes about because the markets aren't convinced that tax cuts will address inflation caused by supply issues. Things are more expensive because of a backlog from COVID, the Ukraine war, issues around imports post-Brexit and energy costs across the supply chain.

But also because they didn't provide any costings or projections on how this would help. Proper budgets have come with an analysis showing future projections of debt, deficits and growth with the assumptions unpinning it. So people can go 'oh, ok, so they're saying if they achieve 2.5% growth then the income actually remains the same' and so on.

I don't know but the problem is inflation so you would need to address that first. This is why Sunak was losing his mind during the debates saying you can't tax cut your way out of an inflationary spiral and all it would do is increase interest rates as the BoE becomes more aggressive in trying to combat it. Remember he wanted to do tax cuts towards the end of Parliament when he assumed inflation would have come down.

My guess is that you need to wait for the underlying issues to solve themselves and while you wait you can take measures to address the people who are in crisis with the energy bill cap, tax cuts at the lower end of the pay scale, and maybe an increase in benefits and pensions. Anything you do that increases the demand but not the supply increases inflation in theory but you also can't let people suffer.

It's not an easy problem to solve but the reaction to this 'mini-budget' seems to show at best a naive and incompetent rollout of their idea. I think

The problem is that it's more than the Tories losing an election at stake if the gamble is lost.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

A solid bet time after time with the Tories in charge. We’ve borrowed £2.5trn against future generations income, the housing bubble does the same, all the privatised industries brought forward future profits into one off dividends for the state.

There’s nothing left to squeeze.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

I suspect you are right in light of Mr Redwood's previous pronouncements:

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2022/09/17.jpg

This was in 2017, God knows what he is telling his clients now! Words fail me ...

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Probably the opportune moment when to invest back in. As Rees-Mogg’s investment firms noted there’s “once in a generation” opportunities arise in these circumstances. It’s just bizarre that a political party with a revolving door to the finance sector, that trousers plenty in donations, has had three such opportunities in a mere six years.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

You posted So you’ve now had something that is available next month? :confused:

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Anyhoo…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/y...ries-n90lqlgf7

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1664469619

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1664469619

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Conservative opinion polling position in meltdown in the latest opinion poll by YouGov.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...28-29-sep-2022

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6ukuklig...M_220929_W.pdf

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

This is an extraordinarily bad start for a new leader.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

The conference bounce though.

Starmer could be 50 points clear once the public have heard from the idiot. :rofl:

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

She is certainly not a Boris Johnson in terms of personal popularity with the voters.

She is wooden and robotic and much more like Theresa May.

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

That's a terrible thing to say

Re: New Prime Minister: Liz Truss
 

Whether one liked Boris Johnson or not he was popular with a broad church of voters until he abused the voters trust repeatedly.