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The Chinese shut down Wuhan the instant they identified the virus. The west quarantined everyone flying from Asia in Dec/Jan. |
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It's the stuff of a tinpot third world country, not a supposedly developed country. Indeed the fifth (sixth?) biggest economy in the world. |
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BBC reporting that Premier league and EFL suspended until at least 4th April Here
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Go on then . . . close the London underground, close all the airports, close cinemas, restaurants, libraries (ooops too late), close the motorways, ban sporting events, shut down all the factories, stop all postal deliveries . . . should I continue?
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China and Italy had other parts of their countries that could support and supply the severely affected areas. If the whole of mainland Europe goes into extreme lockdown, where are the support and supplies going to come from? |
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You've also arrived at the 7 week figure arbitrarily. You're also assuming all or mainland Europe would to into isolation that's not necessary either. |
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Unless you’ve been privy to some high level briefing we’re unaware of, everything you’ve said is arbitrary. |
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Europe had a far better chance of identifying imported cases so wouldn't, managed properly of course, require the same level of quarantine. ---------- Post added at 12:11 ---------- Previous post was at 12:03 ---------- Quote:
If we applied the same logic globally in 2003 we could have developed herd immunity to the original SARS. Just lost a few on the way. The vast majority of Coronavirus cases in the UK will now not be counted and we can pretend it was a huge success. When we inevitably close schools - probably the week after next - what happens to all the old people nomadking is so concerned about? |
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Informative, calm link here from an expert on what is being done, and why it's different from previous epidemics/pandemics.
https://theconversation.com/coronavi...facebookbutton |
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https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...76792bodyText2 |
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So you can bleat all you want. Quote:
As of yesterday we had something around 500 confirmed cases, the Chief Medical Officer advised the true figure would probably be around 10,000. We don't have the capacity to test everyone and we don't need to. Only the serious cases count now. Which is why we have to stem the flow of infection so that there are enough intensive care beds for the most serious cases. It's not difficult to understand. Around 70-80% of the UK will become infected, the important thing is now to ensure they are not all infected at once because the system will fail and more will die and that has nothing to do with the level of resource and investment in the NHS. The NHS would buckle in such a situation no matter how much money we had thrown at it. What other countries have done or are doing, is irrelevant. Now stay at home, if you've been out wash your hands as soon as you get home and ride it out. |
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SARS was more deadly but more easily contained.
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You are unfortunately stuck in the colonial days, where Britainnia ruled the waves and Brits knew best. Quote:
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It may be prudent.. but not possible if people are self isolating if they “think” they are infected. We can’t track it accurately now so it’s irrelevant. Quote:
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So are you self-isolating, jfman? If so, how long do you intend to do it for?
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UK coronavirus cases reach 798 - up 208 in last 24 hours.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...demic-11955867 |
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Big pharma is really scamming everyone for testing kits in that case. ---------- Post added at 14:26 ---------- Previous post was at 14:17 ---------- Quote:
However I'm taking reasonable steps to minimise risk - working from home as much as practical. |
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The first 15 minutes of the World at One are worth a listen. A useful summary of what the advice is, and why, from a BBC reporter, followed by yet another interview with the chief scientific adviser further explaining the UK’s approach and - diplomatically - suggesting that the SNP’s decision to ban gatherings of more than 500 might have more to do with a desire to make a grand gesture than to take the best decision in the interest of public health.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g4g8 |
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Doesn't help when a selfish ***** with a persistent cough decides they're going to go shopping and travel on a bus sitting on the other side of the aisle to me.
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I really don't know why you are arguing with me. When Boris closes the schools in a week or so when it's economically convenient, as we won't know how many people have it because we've stopped counting, you'll be championing the decision regardless of grandparents exposure. |
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You can't just criticise X for something, when Y, Z, etc also haven't done it. If X was wrong before then Y, Z, etc were also wrong. All too easy to blindly follow the herd and have a shutdown. Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy |
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Meanwhile, for those not hell-bent on believing that everyone in Britain with an official position is determined to kill us all, this is how our kids’ high school is explaining the advice it has received from Scottish ministers: Quote:
In short, they think a larger number of children will follow a better hand washing routine in school than out of it. |
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UK local and mayoral elections postponed to 2021.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-update-news |
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My university campus is closed to students as of Monday, but not staff.
I suspect they think we’re all too filthy to be trusted to wash our hands at any point. Judging by the state of some of the toilets on campus they’re probably right. The library would also frequently have more than 500 people in it during the day so it would presumably fall foul of the SNP’s ban on large gatherings. |
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In the absence of a vaccine, allowing the virus to spread at a controlled rate through the general population, while when necessary creating buffers around the most vulnerable, is a valid and quite possibly the best way to stop it in its tracks and reduce the total number of infections. IIRC they suggested total infections could be reduced around 20% this way. I reiterate ... I’m not an expert. But I see no reason to challenge the competence of those that are. |
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If you dont agree with the decision, thats fine, stop bleating on about it, or you'll be taking yet another rest. |
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The Conservative 1922 Committee have cancelled their Monday meeting. Another event goes.
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Gutted no F1 until at least May.
I ran about like a mad man on Wednesday complete the F1Dream Team for my work. |
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Trump declares National Emergency.
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Supermarkets have plans to ration food by working with suppliers to cut back on variety - focusing instead on their supplies of staple products.
The new supermarket contingency plans have been detailed by City analyst, Bruno Monteyne, from the investment firm Alliance Bernstein. According to Mr Monteyne panic buying is leading to empty shelves and there could be food riots." But he adds that retailers have "ready-made plans" to deal with disruption and move to "feed-the-nation" status. Mr Monteyne wrote: "Yes, it will be chaotic but the industry will reduce complexity to keep the country fed." He added that Tesco has practised simulation exercises, with different teams preparing responses to a flu pandemic. He also said supermarkets and their suppliers would work together to agree "a major reduction in ranges," adding that the big grocers were likely "to be drawing up lists right now of which products will be prioritised". Mr Monteyne says he would expect the army to be called in, in the event of an acute food shortage. |
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"We estimate cases are higher than expected and soon the hospitals will be swamped." but also his political advisor "You must be seen to be doing something - it will also calm the markets" |
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Plus they seem very worried that the worst of this virus would hit next winter in a 2nd phase and that we would be protected from this if we have this slow rollout of the virus over the summer. If that was to be the case then this decision will look brilliant by the end of the year. |
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It frees up money and allows decisions to be taken simple and quickly.
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Not simply size of gatherings, but the types and level of interactions that that place.
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If the schools closed for 4 weeks that could account for 3% alone. |
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L0BI
Herd immunity not looking so promising anymore. |
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There’s been a few reported cases worldwide. It’s simply too early to tell if we develop any immunity at all. Alternatively if the rate of mutation in the virus is high enough that when it comes back around it will be different enough that developed immunity is worthless. |
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The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-update-news |
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Scottish cases 121, up from 85 yesterday. 42% rise.
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BREAKING: UK Death toll due to Covid-19 rises to 21, up 10 from yesterday.
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Arlene Foster has apparently said that in Northern Ireland when they close schools they will do so for 16 weeks.
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Summer term in Scotland is only 9 weeks long because of the earlier summer holiday. We may see schools close at the end of the coming week, or possibly the week after, effectively stopping for Easter a week or two early, and then simply not attending the summer term at all. For three of the six high school years in Scotland there are exams in that period anyway, so they wouldn’t be in school at all for much of it. I predict that the high schools will make use of their empty premises to run the SQA exams while seating fewer kids in each available space. |
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It's certainly escelating at an alarming rate now, i'm so glad that I took precautions early on on the advice of my doctor and ignored others who said that I was overreacting. I made arrangements a few days ago for one chosen carer to live with me to reduce interaction with others even further. |
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The NHS and Govt, keep changing their advice. Crowds ok yesterday, not today... We're playing catch up all the time. |
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---------- Post added at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 15:29 ---------- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9402441.html Trump to add UK to his travel ban. Clearly the United States is not yet ready to import some herd immunity. |
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The risk associated with a total lockdown - aside from the economic, which shouldn’t be sniffed at, as the survivors still need jobs and state services - is that if it is too successful it risks pushing more cases into next winter’s seasonal flu, when health services will be under pressure again.
Trump faces an election later this year. He doesn’t have the UK government’s luxury of sticking to sound science despite the harping on of political opportunists and armchair experts. He has to be seen to be Doing Something, at the risk of losing the votes of people whose opinions run way ahead of their expertise. |
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Ah the old experts excuse. Everyone's an expert and they all have different opinions. All based on what they think is scientifically right.
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The alternative is to resign. |
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People will only take so much before they start taking matters in their own hands (started already). But even judging by some on here, some really do believe everything they hear and read and without questioning. |
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Note that they haven't exercised their right to refuse to go on the telly at all, and they have not resigned. I understand how desperate you are to paint this as an unfolding disaster caused by Tory incompetence, but this is daft even by your blinkered standards. ---------- Post added at 17:53 ---------- Previous post was at 17:52 ---------- Quote:
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The only difference is you believe it to be sound and I do not. Time will tell. The scientific community is observably divided around the world on this - I'm sure you'd accept that? |
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There's no simple answer to what is right and what is wrong. It all depends on so many factors, such as geography, demographics, societal behaviour, time of year, weather, timing of epidemic, etc. Eg Kids being kept in schools is a form of curfew. It keeps them away from the general population. If now they will be milling around with everybody else and getting up to who knows what(see example from Thailand in post #449), that is a very different situation. If cold or other bad weather kept them at home, it would be different. It's different from school holidays because overseas travel also tends to happen then, eg half-term trips to Northern Italy.
If the policy of keeping of schools open is abandoned, we will never really know if it was going to be a good idea. |
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Ocado has taken it's app offline after unprecedented demand. I'm glad I got my orders booked for a few weeks in advance.
Tesco, Morrisons & Sainsburys are to share depots and vans if need be as the government will also waive competition law, allowing supermarkets to share data with each other to ensure there is no food shortage. In the coming days, adverts will appear encouraging people to buy food and supplies for those affected by the virus. |
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There is plenty of Paint stock at your local DIY store, as people are already stocking up in order to decorate when they self isolate.
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A lot of people should now have enough set aside to ride out a period of self-isolation. It should now mostly be a matter of normal routine buying to keep going. |
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I must admit I went and had a look at the Asda app this afternoon after learning about Ocado. It is still working (though there is still no pasta or bog roll to be had), however the booking pattern looks more like the Christmas holidays, with all available slots booked for several days ahead, presumably, also like Christmas, by people who don't normally get home delivery. As we pretty much rely on it, there being no supermarkets within a half hour drive of us, I have already booked our regular weekly delivery for next Friday. As I can usually predict what we need to get delivered week to week I will probably go back in over the next couple of days and set up some subsequent deliveries too. The trick with Asda, at times of high demand, like Christmas, is to try to get the order right first time if you possibly can. If you order something that is unavailable at time of picking, they will substitute it. If however you reopen the order to amend it and the algorithm thinks something you already have on the order is now not likely to be available at time of picking, it will remove it from the order entirely. To guard against that happening you have to get the order complete first time and then leave it alone. |
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After the doctor has just given you a diagnosis. “ yes doctor you believe your diagnosis to be sound and I do not” To Einstein. “ yes Alfred I know you believe your theory to be sound, and I do not” To Stephen Hawking. “Yes Stephen, I know you believe your theory on space time to be sound, and I do not” |
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Netflix shuts down all production due to the Coronavirus:
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...GZE-QEY68N7n2I ---------- Post added at 20:02 ---------- Previous post was at 19:57 ---------- It's affecting animals too as monkeys storm the streets of Thailand: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...pozEI36coi00Xk |
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Makes a change from humans storming supermarkets:)
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Herd immunity? We aren't cattle. |
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Nothing has transpired yet for me to discount any advice offered as yet. Quote:
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There's some fairly irrelevant roles that have signed off on that open letter. Progressing through one of those degrees listed and having met two of the people on the list I'm really not sure what gave them the 'expertise' to sign it. Because of that it just looks like anyone that can lay claim to being a 'scientist' signed it. I mean I'm only on year two but I'm fairly confident I have absolutely no idea why the government's plan is wrong. Must be year three when these issues start to become part of my study :confused:
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Following on. Would the ban on mass gatherings include public and/or University libraries? There's generally a peak of 2000 people in the University library. I also happen to work at said University, with the current move of all education to online lecturing I'm thinking I'm about to be shot twice. :erm:
They allowed students to leave and return to their parents homes yesterday but that wasn't feasible for many, international students in particular with a pretty big Asian student population in the North-East Uni's. They're generally gathering in the libraries and SU locations. They haven't been stopped from trying to travel home but there's a fear if they do manage it then they'll be stopped returning. |
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The BBC1 news has just reported that someone has died who wasn't elderly/ill/disabled :shocked:
Also, a new born baby has caught the virus- I thought that children were the safest out of everybody and that babies couldn't catch it in the womb :confused: I've started with a bad cough, but it's not a dry cough, so i'm not too concerned yet. |
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AIUI children are least likely to die (I've just read that none under age 10 have died). But they can still catch it. |
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I’m going to bed............for a few weeks?
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The issue with having a "wet" cough instead is that you could also be carrying COVID-19 and spread it. Quote:
I'm stocked up enough to self-isolate for a few weeks if necessary, but what then? If in the meantime food production has drastically reduced, I would have self-isolated too early. |
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