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downquark1 13-03-2020 10:21

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027123)
So containment is possible and is the most effective method. We are just ill disciplined and under-resourced to implement it.

Thanks.

I don't think true containment would have been possible with this virus except in the following circumstances:

The Chinese shut down Wuhan the instant they identified the virus.

The west quarantined everyone flying from Asia in Dec/Jan.

jfman 13-03-2020 10:22

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36027125)
I don't think true containment would have been possible with this virus except in the following circumstances:

The Chinese shut down Wuhan the instant they identified the virus.

The west quarantined everyone flying from Asia in Dec/Jan.

Well we will never know. The UK knows best and is going to allow the virus to circulate unchecked in the hope it either goes away or we develop immunity.

It's the stuff of a tinpot third world country, not a supposedly developed country. Indeed the fifth (sixth?) biggest economy in the world.

Julian 13-03-2020 10:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
BBC reporting that Premier league and EFL suspended until at least 4th April Here

Carth 13-03-2020 10:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Go on then . . . close the London underground, close all the airports, close cinemas, restaurants, libraries (ooops too late), close the motorways, ban sporting events, shut down all the factories, stop all postal deliveries . . . should I continue?

nomadking 13-03-2020 10:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027123)
So containment is possible and is the most effective method. We are just ill disciplined and under-resourced to implement it.

Thanks.

That extreme level of containment for 7 weeks or more?


China and Italy had other parts of their countries that could support and supply the severely affected areas. If the whole of mainland Europe goes into extreme lockdown, where are the support and supplies going to come from?

papa smurf 13-03-2020 10:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Julian (Post 36027130)
BBC reporting that Premier league and EFL suspended until at least 4th April Here

I would be quite happy if football was banned forever.

spiderplant 13-03-2020 10:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027123)
So containment is possible and is the most effective method

It's possible, but it just puts off the inevitable. You can't contain for ever.

jfman 13-03-2020 10:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027133)
That extreme level of containment for 7 weeks or more?

China and Italy had other parts of their countries that could support and supply the severely affected areas. If the whole of mainland Europe goes into extreme lockdown, where are the support and supplies going to come from?

The whole country isn't a "severely affected area" (yet). It will be if we don't take sensible actions now.

You've also arrived at the 7 week figure arbitrarily. You're also assuming all or mainland Europe would to into isolation that's not necessary either.

pip08456 13-03-2020 10:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36027134)
I would be quite happy if football was banned forever.

Man after my own heart.:)

Chris 13-03-2020 11:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027136)
The whole country isn't a "severely affected area" (yet). It will be if we don't take sensible actions now.

You've also arrived at the 7 week figure arbitrarily. You're also assuming all or mainland Europe would to into isolation that's not necessary either.

You really are a proper black belt keyboard warrior aren’t you.

Unless you’ve been privy to some high level briefing we’re unaware of, everything you’ve said is arbitrary.

Maggy 13-03-2020 11:43

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027144)
You really are a proper black belt keyboard warrior aren’t you.

Unless you’ve been privy to some high level briefing we’re unaware of, everything you’ve said is arbitrary.

Surely that's keyboard 'expert'? ;)

nomadking 13-03-2020 11:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027136)
The whole country isn't a "severely affected area" (yet). It will be if we don't take sensible actions now.

You've also arrived at the 7 week figure arbitrarily. You're also assuming all or mainland Europe would to into isolation that's not necessary either.

The 7 week figure came from this.
Quote:

Two local filmmakers have been recording life inside Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, for over 50 days since the city went under lockdown in January.
Ireland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy. That's a major chunk of nearby Europe.

jfman 13-03-2020 12:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027151)
The 7 week figure came from this.

Ireland, France, Germany, Spain, Italy. That's a major chunk of nearby Europe.

The China figure is based on China having cases throughout December that it was unaware of.

Europe had a far better chance of identifying imported cases so wouldn't, managed properly of course, require the same level of quarantine.

---------- Post added at 12:11 ---------- Previous post was at 12:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027144)
You really are a proper black belt keyboard warrior aren’t you.

Unless you’ve been privy to some high level briefing we’re unaware of, everything you’ve said is arbitrary.

No more arbitrary than the nonsense that the UK government is hiding behind.

If we applied the same logic globally in 2003 we could have developed herd immunity to the original SARS. Just lost a few on the way.

The vast majority of Coronavirus cases in the UK will now not be counted and we can pretend it was a huge success.

When we inevitably close schools - probably the week after next - what happens to all the old people nomadking is so concerned about?

Hugh 13-03-2020 12:22

Re: Coronavirus
 
Informative, calm link here from an expert on what is being done, and why it's different from previous epidemics/pandemics.

https://theconversation.com/coronavi...facebookbutton

denphone 13-03-2020 12:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36027155)
Informative, calm link here from an expert on what is being done, and why it's different from previous epidemics/pandemics.

https://theconversation.com/coronavi...facebookbutton

Some of that information there ties in with the Robert Koch Institute findings in Germany.

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...76792bodyText2

Pierre 13-03-2020 13:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027152)
No more arbitrary than the nonsense that the UK government is hiding behind.

The Government is following to the letter, the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer. You are neither. you know nothing compared to them.

So you can bleat all you want.


Quote:

The vast majority of Coronavirus cases in the UK will now not be counted
Counting the cases is a total irrelevance, what difference does it make?

As of yesterday we had something around 500 confirmed cases, the Chief Medical Officer advised the true figure would probably be around 10,000.

We don't have the capacity to test everyone and we don't need to. Only the serious cases count now.

Which is why we have to stem the flow of infection so that there are enough intensive care beds for the most serious cases.

It's not difficult to understand.

Around 70-80% of the UK will become infected, the important thing is now to ensure they are not all infected at once because the system will fail and more will die and that has nothing to do with the level of resource and investment in the NHS. The NHS would buckle in such a situation no matter how much money we had thrown at it.

What other countries have done or are doing, is irrelevant.

Now stay at home, if you've been out wash your hands as soon as you get home and ride it out.

TheDaddy 13-03-2020 13:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027152)
The China figure is based on China having cases throughout December that it was unaware of.

Europe had a far better chance of identifying imported cases so wouldn't, managed properly of course, require the same level of quarantine.

---------- Post added at 12:11 ---------- Previous post was at 12:03 ----------



No more arbitrary than the nonsense that the UK government is hiding behind.

If we applied the same logic globally in 2003 we could have developed herd immunity to the original SARS. Just lost a few on the way.

The vast majority of Coronavirus cases in the UK will now not be counted and we can pretend it was a huge success.

When we inevitably close schools - probably the week after next - what happens to all the old people nomadking is so concerned about?

The thing with SARS and that other recent one was, iirc that victims weren't contagious until they were really ill, it's the opposite with this and I didn't like what was said earlier about herd immunity either, 60% of us have to get it, goodness knows how many will die if that's the case

downquark1 13-03-2020 13:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
SARS was more deadly but more easily contained.

jfman 13-03-2020 13:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36027157)
The Government is following to the letter, the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer. You are neither. you know nothing compared to them.

So you can bleat all you want.

Do other countries not have people qualified people of equivalent standing? Well they can't all be right.

You are unfortunately stuck in the colonial days, where Britainnia ruled the waves and Brits knew best.

Quote:

Counting the cases is a total irrelevance, what difference does it make?
It can hardly be considered to be irrelevant to identify where cases are taking place to isolate the people and communities most likely to be carriers. Many, non-Conservative voters, and those in other countries would consider such actions prudent.

Quote:

As of yesterday we had something around 500 confirmed cases, the Chief Medical Officer advised the true figure would probably be around 10,000.

We don't have the capacity to test everyone and we don't need to. Only the serious cases count now.
We don't have the capacity yes, need to? Well, the effective testing regime in South Korea appears to be working. Essentially, we have manufactured a reasoning to justify being underprepared for this eventually, and swallowing it. Indeed if we don't have an accurate count when do we deploy more serious measures as we approach the peak?

Quote:

Which is why we have to stem the flow of infection so that there are enough intensive care beds for the most serious cases.
Yet, we are not actively stemming the infection.

Quote:

It's not difficult to understand.
For you, it evidently is.

Quote:

Around 70-80% of the UK will become infected,
Because this Government allows it.

Quote:

the important thing
As defined by this Government

Quote:

is now to ensure they are not all infected at once because the system will fail and more will die and that has nothing to do with the level of resource and investment in the NHS. The NHS would buckle in such a situation no matter how much money we had thrown at it.

What other countries have done or are doing, is irrelevant.
For a global pandemic what other countries do is entirely relevant.

Quote:

Now stay at home, if you've been out wash your hands as soon as you get home and ride it out.
Stay at home isn't the advice. Go to work if you have no symptoms is the advice. Go to football matches - until of course a football manager got infected.

RichardCoulter 13-03-2020 13:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027117)
Of course not, because when it comes to it the Chinese will end a large gathering with tanks. For better or worse, the subjects of the dictatorship that runs China know not to overstep the mark.

A woman rang Radio 4 this morning, she lives in Italy and said that people are only allowed out of their homes & back gardens for exceptional reasons with a letter of some sort. She went on to say that the police were stopping people found on the streets to check they had permission to be outside.

Pierre 13-03-2020 14:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027160)
Do other countries not have people qualified people of equivalent standing? Well they can't all be right.

You are unfortunately stuck in the colonial days, where Britainnia ruled the waves and Brits knew best.

In science and medicine we are indeed world leaders. So I am more than happy to trust in what they say, more so than other nations.

Quote:

It can hardly be considered to be irrelevant to identify where cases are taking place to isolate the people and communities most likely to be carriers. Many, non-Conservative voters, and those in other countries would consider such actions prudent.
what does how you voted have to do with anything?

It may be prudent.. but not possible if people are self isolating if they “think” they are infected. We can’t track it accurately now so it’s irrelevant.

Quote:

We don't have the capacity yes, need to? Well, the effective testing regime in South Korea appears to be working. Essentially, we have manufactured a reasoning to justify being underprepared for this eventually, and swallowing it. Indeed if we don't have an accurate count when do we deploy more serious measures as we approach the peak?
What difference does testing make? At this stage


Quote:

Yet, we are not actively stemming the infection.
Trying to slow it, not stop it. We can’t stop it.

Quote:

stay at home isn’t the advice
No. I was just telling you to stay home. Do everyone a favour

spiderplant 13-03-2020 14:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
So are you self-isolating, jfman? If so, how long do you intend to do it for?

denphone 13-03-2020 14:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
UK coronavirus cases reach 798 - up 208 in last 24 hours.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...demic-11955867

jfman 13-03-2020 14:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36027164)
In science and medicine we are indeed world leaders. So I am more than happy to trust in what they say, more so than other nations.

what does how you voted have to do with anything?

It may be prudent.. but not possible if people are self isolating if they “think” they are infected. We can’t track it accurately now so it’s irrelevant.

What difference does testing make? At this stage

Trying to slow it, not stop it. We can’t stop it.

No. I was just telling you to stay home. Do everyone a favour

If you fail to understand why testing and confirming whether people have viruses or not is important then you'll never be convinced.

Big pharma is really scamming everyone for testing kits in that case.

---------- Post added at 14:26 ---------- Previous post was at 14:17 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36027165)
So are you self-isolating, jfman? If so, how long do you intend to do it for?

I'm not sure what my individual choices have to do with my views on Government policy. If every idiot and their dog (metaphorically) is spreading it around for the next three months on the advice of the Chief Medical Officer then there's little I can do personally. I'm less likely to catch it now than from the millions of carriers that will be out there without intervention.

However I'm taking reasonable steps to minimise risk - working from home as much as practical.

Chris 13-03-2020 14:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
The first 15 minutes of the World at One are worth a listen. A useful summary of what the advice is, and why, from a BBC reporter, followed by yet another interview with the chief scientific adviser further explaining the UK’s approach and - diplomatically - suggesting that the SNP’s decision to ban gatherings of more than 500 might have more to do with a desire to make a grand gesture than to take the best decision in the interest of public health.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g4g8

nomadking 13-03-2020 15:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Doesn't help when a selfish ***** with a persistent cough decides they're going to go shopping and travel on a bus sitting on the other side of the aisle to me.

jfman 13-03-2020 15:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027169)
The first 15 minutes of the World at One are worth a listen. A useful summary of what the advice is, and why, from a BBC reporter, followed by yet another interview with the chief scientific adviser further explaining the UK’s approach and - diplomatically - suggesting that the SNP’s decision to ban gatherings of more than 500 might have more to do with a desire to make a grand gesture than to take the best decision in the interest of public health.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g4g8

New York State, California, Ohio, New Mexico, Australia, Malaysia, Sweden, Iceland, and many, many more all ignoring the science just to rub the UK Government, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer up the wrong way I assume.

nomadking 13-03-2020 15:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027174)
New York State, California, Ohio, New Mexico, Australia, Malaysia, Sweden, Iceland, and many, many more all ignoring the science just to rub the UK Government, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer up the wrong way I assume.

If introducing a shutdown is such a clear and obvious decision, why have they all only very recently introduced it? Why not weeks ago?

jfman 13-03-2020 15:43

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027176)
If introducing a shutdown is such a clear and obvious decision, why have they all only very recently introduced it? Why not weeks ago?

Taking time to make the right decision doesn't negate it being the right decision. Also hindsight and new information informs decision making.

I really don't know why you are arguing with me. When Boris closes the schools in a week or so when it's economically convenient, as we won't know how many people have it because we've stopped counting, you'll be championing the decision regardless of grandparents exposure.

nomadking 13-03-2020 16:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027177)
Taking time to make the right decision doesn't negate it being the right decision. Also hindsight and new information informs decision making.

I really don't know why you are arguing with me. When Boris closes the schools in a week or so when it's economically convenient, as we won't know how many people have it because we've stopped counting, you'll be championing the decision regardless of grandparents exposure.

Grandparents are more likely to get infected if schoolkids are milling around shops at the same time.

You can't just criticise X for something, when Y, Z, etc also haven't done it. If X was wrong before then Y, Z, etc were also wrong. All too easy to blindly follow the herd and have a shutdown.
Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy

Chris 13-03-2020 16:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027174)
New York State, California, Ohio, New Mexico, Australia, Malaysia, Sweden, Iceland, and many, many more all ignoring the science just to rub the UK Government, the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Officer up the wrong way I assume.

So you actually don’t understand how modelling produces different outcomes in different geographical and social settings? Remind me to pay even less attention to your opinions in future ...

Meanwhile, for those not hell-bent on believing that everyone in Britain with an official position is determined to kill us all, this is how our kids’ high school is explaining the advice it has received from Scottish ministers:

Quote:

There is no recommendation to close schools at this time. It is believed that pupils are safer in schools where we continue to urge them to follow a good hygiene regime rather than out in the communities mixing with a wider range of people without constant reminders to wash hands.
Emphasis as placed by the school.

In short, they think a larger number of children will follow a better hand washing routine in school than out of it.

denphone 13-03-2020 16:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
UK local and mayoral elections postponed to 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-update-news

Chris 13-03-2020 16:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
My university campus is closed to students as of Monday, but not staff.

I suspect they think we’re all too filthy to be trusted to wash our hands at any point. Judging by the state of some of the toilets on campus they’re probably right. The library would also frequently have more than 500 people in it during the day so it would presumably fall foul of the SNP’s ban on large gatherings.

jfman 13-03-2020 16:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027180)
So you actually don’t understand how modelling produces different outcomes in different geographical and social settings? Remind me to pay even less attention to your opinions in future ...

I don’t believe for a second that we are substantially different socially from all of those places, that we differ in terms of geographical factors. I’m sure they urban places, rural places, public transport, sporting events and all the same things we do. Nor do I believe our North European climate will save us.

Quote:

Meanwhile, for those not hell-bent on believing that everyone in Britain with an official position is determined to kill us all, this is how our kids’ high school is explaining the advice it has received from Scottish ministers:

Emphasis as placed by the school.

In short, they think a larger number of children will follow a better hand washing routine in school than out of it.
Nobody has said they want to kill us all. Only that they have decided that they aren’t going to try and contain the virus for economic reasons, not health ones, and accepted some level of mortality as acceptable.

Chris 13-03-2020 16:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027185)
I don’t believe for a second that we are substantially different socially from all of those places, that we differ in terms of geographical factors. I’m sure they urban places, rural places, public transport, sporting events and all the same things we do. Nor do I believe our North European climate will save us.



Nobody has said they want to kill us all. Only that they have decided that they aren’t going to try and contain the virus for economic reasons, not health ones, and accepted some level of mortality as acceptable.

On the contrary, the explanation given later on during WatO this lunchtime was more around the benefit of herd immunity. You have to listen on to about the 20 minute mark and beyond to hear it.

In the absence of a vaccine, allowing the virus to spread at a controlled rate through the general population, while when necessary creating buffers around the most vulnerable, is a valid and quite possibly the best way to stop it in its tracks and reduce the total number of infections. IIRC they suggested total infections could be reduced around 20% this way.

I reiterate ... I’m not an expert. But I see no reason to challenge the competence of those that are.

Paul 13-03-2020 18:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027185)
I don’t believe for a second that we are substantially different socially from all of those places, that we differ in terms of geographical factors. I’m sure they urban places, rural places, public transport, sporting events and all the same things we do. Nor do I believe our North European climate will save us.



Nobody has said they want to kill us all. Only that they have decided that they aren’t going to try and contain the virus for economic reasons, not health ones, and accepted some level of mortality as acceptable.

Thats enough of this stupid argument, its going round in useless circles.
If you dont agree with the decision, thats fine, stop bleating on about it, or you'll be taking yet another rest.

jfman 13-03-2020 18:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
The Conservative 1922 Committee have cancelled their Monday meeting. Another event goes.

Hom3r 13-03-2020 18:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Gutted no F1 until at least May.

I ran about like a mad man on Wednesday complete the F1Dream Team for my work.

pip08456 13-03-2020 20:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Trump declares National Emergency.

RichardCoulter 13-03-2020 21:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
Supermarkets have plans to ration food by working with suppliers to cut back on variety - focusing instead on their supplies of staple products.

The new supermarket contingency plans have been detailed by City analyst, Bruno Monteyne, from the investment firm Alliance Bernstein.

According to Mr Monteyne panic buying is leading to empty shelves and there could be food riots."

But he adds that retailers have "ready-made plans" to deal with disruption and move to "feed-the-nation" status.

Mr Monteyne wrote: "Yes, it will be chaotic but the industry will reduce complexity to keep the country fed."

He added that Tesco has practised simulation exercises, with different teams preparing responses to a flu pandemic.

He also said supermarkets and their suppliers would work together to agree "a major reduction in ranges," adding that the big grocers were likely "to be drawing up lists right now of which products will be prioritised".

Mr Monteyne says he would expect the army to be called in, in the event of an acute food shortage.

jfman 13-03-2020 21:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36027208)
Trump declares National Emergency.

I wonder what the Surgeon General is telling him.

downquark1 13-03-2020 21:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027212)
I wonder what the Surgeon General is telling him.

I would guess:

"We estimate cases are higher than expected and soon the hospitals will be swamped."

but also his political advisor

"You must be seen to be doing something - it will also calm the markets"

Pierre 13-03-2020 22:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027212)
I wonder what the Surgeon General is telling him.

I wonder......you wonder........we all wonder.........but all we can do is wonder.........Ooooooh

Damien 13-03-2020 22:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027186)
In the absence of a vaccine, allowing the virus to spread at a controlled rate through the general population, while when necessary creating buffers around the most vulnerable, is a valid and quite possibly the best way to stop it in its tracks and reduce the total number of infections. IIRC they suggested total infections could be reduced around 20% this way.


Plus they seem very worried that the worst of this virus would hit next winter in a 2nd phase and that we would be protected from this if we have this slow rollout of the virus over the summer. If that was to be the case then this decision will look brilliant by the end of the year.

nomadking 13-03-2020 22:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
It frees up money and allows decisions to be taken simple and quickly.
Eg

Quote:

Amongst the measures envisaged as part of the emergency response are:
  • The US Health Secretary Alex Azar and health officials can waive certain laws and license requirements, giving more flexibility to healthcare providers


Quote:

The 1988 Stafford Act gives the president alone the ability to direct the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) to co-ordinate a national response to "natural catastrophes" within the US.
Donald Trump said "national emergency" were two very big words, but the declaration sounds more dramatic than it is, says the BBC's Anthony Zurcher.

Chris 13-03-2020 23:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36027220)
Plus they seem very worried that the worst of this virus would hit next winter in a 2nd phase and that we would be protected from this if we have this slow rollout of the virus over the summer. If that was to be the case then this decision will look brilliant by the end of the year.

Thankfully it became clear fairly early on that covid-19 causes little more than a bad cold, for those who even develop symptoms, except in a small number of cases. And those serious cases are concentrated amongst (mostly) older people with compromised immunity or other respiratory conditions. As the spread continues, those people are easier to identify and to isolate more carefully. I don’t know if this approach could work if mortality was higher or harder to predict. But it is what it is, and it seems to me that a controlled burn is a good way of dealing with it.

jfman 14-03-2020 05:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
UK to ban mass gatherings from next weekend.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-u-turn

denphone 14-03-2020 05:14

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027233)
UK to ban mass gatherings from next weekend.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-u-turn

Yeah l just noticed that on another news site a few minutes ago as emergency legislation will be passed within days.

nomadking 14-03-2020 08:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Not simply size of gatherings, but the types and level of interactions that that place.
Eg Link
Quote:

Thailand has today issued a new coronavirus warning after a spike of 13 cases were traced to a group of friends who shared cigarettes and whisky while on a night out.

So events like Glastonbury would be a disaster. Exchanging saliva is very much NOT a good idea.

Pierre 14-03-2020 09:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027226)
Thankfully it became clear fairly early on that covid-19 causes little more than a bad cold

I think that’s underplaying it a bit. It gives flu like symptoms, and if you’re ever had the real flu (as opposed to man flu) it wipes you out totally. Even fit people.

downquark1 14-03-2020 10:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36027244)
I think that’s underplaying it a bit. It gives flu like symptoms, and if you’re ever had the real flu (as opposed to man flu) it wipes you out totally. Even fit people.

And at the risk of doomsaying, this is certainly going to cause a global recession, probably worse than 2008.

denphone 14-03-2020 10:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36027248)
And at the risk of doomsaying, this is certainly going to cause a global recession, probably worse than 2008.

Indeed GDP could shrink from anything from 1.5 to 3 or maybe 4.0 GDP in the worse case scenario according to JPMorgan.

jfman 14-03-2020 10:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36027250)
Indeed GDP could shrink from anything from 1.5 to 3 or maybe 4.0 GDP in the worse case scenario according to JPMorgan.

https://www.theguardian.com/educatio...nisters-warned

If the schools closed for 4 weeks that could account for 3% alone.

Angua 14-03-2020 12:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L0BI

Herd immunity not looking so promising anymore.

Chris 14-03-2020 12:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36027259)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L0BI

Herd immunity not looking so promising anymore.

It’s a bit early to say that. From the article:

Quote:

Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Philip Tierno Jr., Professor of Microbiology and Pathology at NYU School of Medicine.

Tierno said much remains unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not bi-phasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease appears to go away before recurring.

jfman 14-03-2020 12:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36027259)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20L0BI

Herd immunity not looking so promising anymore.

The “scientists” at the World Health Organisation are sceptical.

There’s been a few reported cases worldwide. It’s simply too early to tell if we develop any immunity at all. Alternatively if the rate of mutation in the virus is high enough that when it comes back around it will be different enough that developed immunity is worthless.

Angua 14-03-2020 12:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027260)
It’s a bit early to say that. From the article:

It does seem to have more in common with Flu & Cold viruses, which are known to mutate, requiring annual vaccinations for the most expected version of the Flu each year.

denphone 14-03-2020 13:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...st-update-news

jfman 14-03-2020 14:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Scottish cases 121, up from 85 yesterday. 42% rise.

Mick 14-03-2020 14:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
BREAKING: UK Death toll due to Covid-19 rises to 21, up 10 from yesterday.

jfman 14-03-2020 14:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Arlene Foster has apparently said that in Northern Ireland when they close schools they will do so for 16 weeks.

Chris 14-03-2020 14:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027273)
Arlene Foster has apparently said that in Northern Ireland when they close schools they will do so for 16 weeks.

There are murmurs within Scottish education that something similar will happen here.

Summer term in Scotland is only 9 weeks long because of the earlier summer holiday. We may see schools close at the end of the coming week, or possibly the week after, effectively stopping for Easter a week or two early, and then simply not attending the summer term at all. For three of the six high school years in Scotland there are exams in that period anyway, so they wouldn’t be in school at all for much of it. I predict that the high schools will make use of their empty premises to run the SQA exams while seating fewer kids in each available space.

Mick 14-03-2020 14:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36027271)
BREAKING: UK Death toll due to Covid-19 rises to 21, up 10 from yesterday.

Update to the above. Number of people in UK testing positive to COVID-19 jumps up 342 in 24 hours to 1,140. (Was 798 this time yesterday).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Department of Health and Social Care

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:
As of 9am on 14 March, a total of 37,746 have been tested:

36,606 negative
1140 positive

Across the UK, 21 patients who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have sadly died.


RichardCoulter 14-03-2020 15:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027233)
UK to ban mass gatherings from next weekend.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...navirus-u-turn

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36027277)
Update to the above. Number of people in UK testing positive to COVID-19 jumps up 342 in 24 hours to 1,140. (Was 798 this time yesterday).


It's certainly escelating at an alarming rate now, i'm so glad that I took precautions early on on the advice of my doctor and ignored others who said that I was overreacting.

I made arrangements a few days ago for one chosen carer to live with me to reduce interaction with others even further.

Mr K 14-03-2020 15:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36027277)
Update to the above. Number of people in UK testing positive to COVID-19 jumps up 342 in 24 hours to 1,140. (Was 798 this time yesterday).

Given they aren't now testing anyone who isn't seriously ill/ in hospital, the numbers are massively under reported/meaningless.

The NHS and Govt, keep changing their advice. Crowds ok yesterday, not today... We're playing catch up all the time.

jfman 14-03-2020 16:21

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36027279)
Given they aren't now testing anyone who isn't seriously ill/ in hospital, the numbers are massively under reported/meaningless.

The NHS and Govt, keep changing their advice. Crowds ok yesterday, not today... We're playing catch up all the time.

I look forward to the release of scientific advice for peer-review demonstrating that the extra 8 days for so 'flattened the curve'. I'm sure it will prove a valuable lesson for scientists around the world attempting to head off future pandemics.

---------- Post added at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 15:29 ----------

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9402441.html

Trump to add UK to his travel ban. Clearly the United States is not yet ready to import some herd immunity.

Chris 14-03-2020 16:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
The risk associated with a total lockdown - aside from the economic, which shouldn’t be sniffed at, as the survivors still need jobs and state services - is that if it is too successful it risks pushing more cases into next winter’s seasonal flu, when health services will be under pressure again.

Trump faces an election later this year. He doesn’t have the UK government’s luxury of sticking to sound science despite the harping on of political opportunists and armchair experts. He has to be seen to be Doing Something, at the risk of losing the votes of people whose opinions run way ahead of their expertise.

downquark1 14-03-2020 16:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027288)
The risk associated with a total lockdown - aside from the economic, which shouldn’t be sniffed at, as the survivors still need jobs and state services - is that if it is too successful it risks pushing more cases into next winter’s seasonal flu, when health services will be under pressure again.

Trump faces an election later this year. He doesn’t have the UK government’s luxury of sticking to sound science despite the harping on of political opportunists and armchair experts. He has to be seen to be Doing Something, at the risk of losing the votes of people whose opinions run way ahead of their expertise.

Boris' plan is the high risk high reward strategy which will be judged by if it holds or ends in disaster.

Chris 14-03-2020 16:53

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36027290)
Boris' plan is the high risk high reward strategy which will be judged by if it holds or ends in disaster.

Perhaps, but it is notable that HMG continues to get political cover from the most senior experts involved here. It is chief scientists and medical officers who are continually on the news explaining and defending the government’s strategy. Even in Scotland, where we have a first minister who finds it impossible to pass up the chance of a grand gesture or to exercise differentiation from England (and Tories in particular), the approach is near identical. Intervening to prevent gatherings of more than 500 people is the only significant difference in approach, and has been taken in order to free up emergency services personnel for other more pressing tasks rather than out of a fundamentally different weighing of the risk of further viral transmission. It pains me to admit it but Nippy Sturgeon is for once doing what she is handsomely paid for, and exercising devolved powers in order to best utilise the state services that are under her control, because they are organised in a way that best supports Scottish society and geography.

peanut 14-03-2020 17:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Ah the old experts excuse. Everyone's an expert and they all have different opinions. All based on what they think is scientifically right.

jfman 14-03-2020 17:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36027297)
Ah the old experts excuse. Everyone's an expert and they all have different opinions. All based on what they think is scientifically right.

They're also employees of the Crown, so can't really go on telly and say anything else but Government policy.

The alternative is to resign.

peanut 14-03-2020 17:43

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027300)
They're also employees of the Crown, so can't really go on telly and say anything else but Government policy.

The alternative is to resign.

But Bozo is taking advice from these 'experts'. Herd immunity... More like an excuse to thin the herd...

People will only take so much before they start taking matters in their own hands (started already). But even judging by some on here, some really do believe everything they hear and read and without questioning.

Hugh 14-03-2020 17:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027280)
I look forward to the release of scientific advice for peer-review demonstrating that the extra 8 days for so 'flattened the curve'. I'm sure it will prove a valuable lesson for scientists around the world attempting to head off future pandemics.

---------- Post added at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 15:29 ----------

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9402441.html

Trump to add UK to his travel ban. Clearly the United States is not yet ready to import some herd immunity.

Luckily (he said hopefully), I changed our flights this morning to fly back Monday night, rather than Thursday...

Chris 14-03-2020 17:53

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027300)
They're also employees of the Crown, so can't really go on telly and say anything else but Government policy.

The alternative is to resign.

Correct.

Note that they haven't exercised their right to refuse to go on the telly at all, and they have not resigned.

I understand how desperate you are to paint this as an unfolding disaster caused by Tory incompetence, but this is daft even by your blinkered standards.

---------- Post added at 17:53 ---------- Previous post was at 17:52 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by peanut (Post 36027301)
But Bozo is taking advice from these 'experts'. Herd immunity... More like an excuse to thin the herd...

People will only take so much before they start taking matters in their own hands (started already). But even judging by some on here, some really do believe everything they hear and read and without questioning.

Quite. And it looks like you probably ought to question the sources you've apparently been leaning into, just a little more carefully.

jfman 14-03-2020 17:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027303)
Correct.

Note that they haven't exercised their right to refuse to go on the telly at all, and they have not resigned.

I understand how desperate you are to paint this as an unfolding disaster caused by Tory incompetence, but this is daft even by your blinkered standards.

It's too early to say if the theory will work. A point we both accepted in consecutive posts earlier this afternoon.

The only difference is you believe it to be sound and I do not. Time will tell. The scientific community is observably divided around the world on this - I'm sure you'd accept that?

nomadking 14-03-2020 18:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
There's no simple answer to what is right and what is wrong. It all depends on so many factors, such as geography, demographics, societal behaviour, time of year, weather, timing of epidemic, etc. Eg Kids being kept in schools is a form of curfew. It keeps them away from the general population. If now they will be milling around with everybody else and getting up to who knows what(see example from Thailand in post #449), that is a very different situation. If cold or other bad weather kept them at home, it would be different. It's different from school holidays because overseas travel also tends to happen then, eg half-term trips to Northern Italy.


If the policy of keeping of schools open is abandoned, we will never really know if it was going to be a good idea.

RichardCoulter 14-03-2020 18:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Ocado has taken it's app offline after unprecedented demand. I'm glad I got my orders booked for a few weeks in advance.

Tesco, Morrisons & Sainsburys are to share depots and vans if need be as the government will also waive competition law, allowing supermarkets to share data with each other to ensure there is no food shortage.

In the coming days, adverts will appear encouraging people to buy food and supplies for those affected by the virus.

Angua 14-03-2020 18:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
There is plenty of Paint stock at your local DIY store, as people are already stocking up in order to decorate when they self isolate.

nomadking 14-03-2020 18:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36027307)
Ocado has taken it's app offline after unprecedented demand. I'm glad I got my orders booked for a few weeks in advance.

Tesco, Morrisons & Sainsburys are to share depots and vans if need be as the government will also waive competition law, allowing supermarkets to share data with each other to ensure there is no food shortage.

In the coming days, adverts will appear encouraging people to buy food and supplies for those affected by the virus.

Even in normal times, having set up an order doesn't guarantee the products will be available at the time. The items are picked off the shelves the same as for any other shopper.


A lot of people should now have enough set aside to ride out a period of self-isolation. It should now mostly be a matter of normal routine buying to keep going.

Angua 14-03-2020 18:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027309)
Even in normal times, having set up an order doesn't guarantee the products will be available at the time. The items are picked off the shelves the same as for any other shopper.


A lot of people should now have enough set aside to ride out a period of self-isolation. It should now mostly be a matter of normal routine buying to keep going.

Ocado don't have stores, it is all done from warehouses.

nomadking 14-03-2020 18:43

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36027310)
Ocado don't have stores, it is all done from warehouses.

The still won't necessarily have the stock at that time. At the local big Tescos, you see them going around with the trolleys picking the items off the shelves.

Pierre 14-03-2020 18:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36027288)
people whose opinions run way ahead of their expertise.

A sound description of everybody on this site. Some more than others............

Chris 14-03-2020 18:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36027309)
Even in normal times, having set up an order doesn't guarantee the products will be available at the time. The items are picked off the shelves the same as for any other shopper.


A lot of people should now have enough set aside to ride out a period of self-isolation. It should now mostly be a matter of normal routine buying to keep going.

I don't think that was quite the point he was making. If the app is offline, there is no way of booking a new delivery. If you've already set up recurring deliveries for a few weeks ahead then you will get deliveries even without the app being live. At the time items are picked, they will substitute unavailable items for something similar.

I must admit I went and had a look at the Asda app this afternoon after learning about Ocado. It is still working (though there is still no pasta or bog roll to be had), however the booking pattern looks more like the Christmas holidays, with all available slots booked for several days ahead, presumably, also like Christmas, by people who don't normally get home delivery.

As we pretty much rely on it, there being no supermarkets within a half hour drive of us, I have already booked our regular weekly delivery for next Friday. As I can usually predict what we need to get delivered week to week I will probably go back in over the next couple of days and set up some subsequent deliveries too.

The trick with Asda, at times of high demand, like Christmas, is to try to get the order right first time if you possibly can. If you order something that is unavailable at time of picking, they will substitute it. If however you reopen the order to amend it and the algorithm thinks something you already have on the order is now not likely to be available at time of picking, it will remove it from the order entirely. To guard against that happening you have to get the order complete first time and then leave it alone.

Pierre 14-03-2020 19:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36027305)
The only difference is you believe it to be sound and I do not.

I’d love to be a fly on the wall whenever you pay a visit to a doctor or hospital or any expert on anything.

After the doctor has just given you a diagnosis.

“ yes doctor you believe your diagnosis to be sound and I do not”

To Einstein.

“ yes Alfred I know you believe your theory to be sound, and I do not”

To Stephen Hawking.

“Yes Stephen, I know you believe your theory on space time to be sound, and I do not”

RichardCoulter 14-03-2020 20:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Netflix shuts down all production due to the Coronavirus:

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-e...GZE-QEY68N7n2I

---------- Post added at 20:02 ---------- Previous post was at 19:57 ----------

It's affecting animals too as monkeys storm the streets of Thailand:

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...pozEI36coi00Xk

richard s 14-03-2020 20:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Makes a change from humans storming supermarkets:)

Hugh 14-03-2020 21:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36027314)
I’d love to be a fly on the wall whenever you pay a visit to a doctor or hospital or any expert on anything.

After the doctor has just given you a diagnosis.

“ yes doctor you believe your diagnosis to be sound and I do not”

To Einstein.

“ yes Alfred I know you believe your theory to be sound, and I do not”

To Stephen Hawking.

“Yes Stephen, I know you believe your theory on space time to be sound, and I do not”

tbf, he’s not the only one disagreeing (and these are real experts, not internet ones).

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51892402
Quote:

Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.

The Department of Health said Sir Patrick's comments had been "misinterpreted".

In their letter the scientists also questioned the government's view that people will become fed up with restrictions if they were imposed too soon.
Quote:

The UK's approach to coping with the coronavirus pandemic has been in stark contrast to other countries. The whole of Italy has been on lockdown since Tuesday, while Poland is set to close its borders for two weeks.

On Saturday the French government ordered the closure of all non-essential public locations from midnight (23:00 GMT Saturday).

And Spain has declared a 15-day national lockdown on Monday to battle the virus,

In the open letter the group of scientists argue that stronger "social distancing measures" would "dramatically" slow the rate of growth of the disease in the UK, and would spare "thousands of lives".

The group said the current measures are "insufficient" and "additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately", as is happening in other countries.
Quote:

In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.

"While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about 'behavioural fatigue' or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances," the letter said.

"Such evidence is necessary if we are to base a high-risk public health strategy on it."

"In fact, it seems likely that even those essential behaviour changes that are presently required (e.g., handwashing) will receive far greater uptake the more urgent the situation is perceived to be. Carrying on as normal for as long as possible undercuts that urgency," it added.

The scientists said "radical behaviour change" could have a "much better" effect and could "save very large numbers of lives".

"Experience in China and South Korea is sufficiently encouraging to suggest that this possibility should at least be attempted," it added.

The second letter called on the government to reconsider its stance on "behavioural fatigue" and to share the evidence on which it based this stance.

Pierre 14-03-2020 21:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36027328)
tbf, he’s not the only one disagreeing (and these are real experts, not internet ones).

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51892402

I’ve read the article you cite.

One quote is
Quote:

The major downside of herd immunity, according to Birmingham University's Prof Willem van Schaik, is that this will mean that in the UK alone at least 36 million people will need to be infected and recover.
"It is almost impossible to predict what that will mean in terms of human costs, but we are conservatively looking at tens of thousands of deaths, and possibly at hundreds of thousands of deaths," he said.
"The only way to make this work would be to spread out these millions of cases over a relatively long period of time so that the NHS does not get overwhelmed."
Now I’m pretty sure that’s what was said by the CMO/CSO. The infection can’t be stopped, only slowed. 70% of the population will be infected (more than the 36M quoted above). And we need to flatten the curved. This all consistent with the government’s message.

Mr K 14-03-2020 21:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36027330)
I’ve read the article you cite.

One quote is


Now I’m pretty sure that’s what was said by the CMO/CSO. The infection can’t be stopped, only slowed. 70% of the population will be infected (more than the 36M quoted above). And we need to flatten the curved. This all consistent with the government’s message.

Beware of experts putting their faith and our lives in a hypothetical flat curved graph.

Herd immunity? We aren't cattle.

Pierre 14-03-2020 21:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36027331)
Beware of experts putting their faith and our lives in a hypothetical flat curved graph.

Well in an emergency, where I know less, I would listen to the expert(s). I would listen to all and then based on their input I would make my own conclusion.

Nothing has transpired yet for me to discount any advice offered as yet.

Quote:

Herd immunity? We aren't cattle.
Well that is where you’re wrong. That is exactly what we are. To the virus at least, which couldn’t give a toss of our superior intellect to the bovine community.

papa smurf 14-03-2020 21:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36027331)
Beware of experts putting their faith and our lives in a hypothetical flat curved graph.

Herd immunity? We aren't cattle.

If you don't eat em your one of em.

adzii_nufc 14-03-2020 21:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
There's some fairly irrelevant roles that have signed off on that open letter. Progressing through one of those degrees listed and having met two of the people on the list I'm really not sure what gave them the 'expertise' to sign it. Because of that it just looks like anyone that can lay claim to being a 'scientist' signed it. I mean I'm only on year two but I'm fairly confident I have absolutely no idea why the government's plan is wrong. Must be year three when these issues start to become part of my study :confused:

spiderplant 14-03-2020 21:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua (Post 36027308)
There is plenty of Paint stock at your local DIY store, as people are already stocking up in order to decorate when they self isolate.

On that subject, I was wondering whether the NHS will be prepared for the Christmas baby boom ;)

Chris 14-03-2020 22:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36027336)
On that subject, I was wondering whether the NHS will be prepared for the Christmas baby boom ;)

Funny, missus said that the other day too :rofl:

---------- Post added at 22:03 ---------- Previous post was at 22:00 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by adzii_nufc (Post 36027335)
There's some fairly irrelevant roles that have signed off on that open letter. Progressing through one of those degrees listed and having met two of the people on the list I'm really not sure what gave them the 'expertise' to sign it. Because of that it just looks like anyone that can lay claim to being a 'scientist' signed it. I mean I'm only on year two but I'm fairly confident I have absolutely no idea why the government's plan is wrong. Must be year three when these issues start to become part of my study :confused:

It’s a fairly blatant appeal to authority. At least some of those signatories simply don’t have the expertise to pass judgement on the conclusions reached by the relevant scientific advisers and are using the catch-all title “scientist” to get themselves heard. It’s a pity, because we do need a vigorous ongoing debate about the best way of tackling this, but people weighing in and pretending to have insight that they simply don’t, really doesn’t help.

adzii_nufc 14-03-2020 22:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Following on. Would the ban on mass gatherings include public and/or University libraries? There's generally a peak of 2000 people in the University library. I also happen to work at said University, with the current move of all education to online lecturing I'm thinking I'm about to be shot twice. :erm:

They allowed students to leave and return to their parents homes yesterday but that wasn't feasible for many, international students in particular with a pretty big Asian student population in the North-East Uni's. They're generally gathering in the libraries and SU locations. They haven't been stopped from trying to travel home but there's a fear if they do manage it then they'll be stopped returning.

RichardCoulter 14-03-2020 22:54

Re: Coronavirus
 
The BBC1 news has just reported that someone has died who wasn't elderly/ill/disabled :shocked:

Also, a new born baby has caught the virus- I thought that children were the safest out of everybody and that babies couldn't catch it in the womb :confused:

I've started with a bad cough, but it's not a dry cough, so i'm not too concerned yet.

spiderplant 14-03-2020 23:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36027346)
Also, a new born baby has caught the virus- I thought that children were the safest out of everybody and that babies couldn't catch it in the womb :confused:

Possibly the baby caught it off the mother during or just after birth (mother reportedly has pneumonia).

AIUI children are least likely to die (I've just read that none under age 10 have died). But they can still catch it.

Chris 14-03-2020 23:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by adzii_nufc (Post 36027340)
Following on. Would the ban on mass gatherings include public and/or University libraries? There's generally a peak of 2000 people in the University library. I also happen to work at said University, with the current move of all education to online lecturing I'm thinking I'm about to be shot twice. :erm:

They allowed students to leave and return to their parents homes yesterday but that wasn't feasible for many, international students in particular with a pretty big Asian student population in the North-East Uni's. They're generally gathering in the libraries and SU locations. They haven't been stopped from trying to travel home but there's a fear if they do manage it then they'll be stopped returning.

where I’m studying has cancelled all classes until further notice but the library is open and staff are expected to go in to work to deliver courses via the VLE as far as possible. They have said they think this will flatten out library demand, and it will a bit because you won’t get people arriving by the hundred on the hour when lectures finish, but there have been plenty of classless days recently during lecturer trade union strikes and frankly it made little difference to the overall number of people in the building during the middle of the day. It just made the numbers rise and fall more steadily.

Pierre 14-03-2020 23:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
I’m going to bed............for a few weeks?

nomadking 14-03-2020 23:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36027346)
The BBC1 news has just reported that someone has died who wasn't elderly/ill/disabled :shocked:

Also, a new born baby has caught the virus- I thought that children were the safest out of everybody and that babies couldn't catch it in the womb :confused:

I've started with a bad cough, but it's not a dry cough, so i'm not too concerned yet.

Are you sure about that?
BBC News
Quote:

Of the latest deaths in the UK, eight were men aged over 80 and all but one were known to have had underlying health conditions.
All over 80, but only one without a known pre-existing condition. I suppose most over-80s will have a pre-existing condition, it's a matter of how much it has manifested itself beforehand.


The issue with having a "wet" cough instead is that you could also be carrying COVID-19 and spread it.
Quote:

Under a state of emergency, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is banning Spanish citizens from leaving home, except for buying essential supplies and medicines, or for work.
Good luck with trying that in the UK.


I'm stocked up enough to self-isolate for a few weeks if necessary, but what then? If in the meantime food production has drastically reduced, I would have self-isolated too early.


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