Cable Forum

Cable Forum (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/index.php)
-   Current Affairs (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/forumdisplay.php?f=20)
-   -   Eurozone will collapse... (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33678876)

Pierre 12-12-2011 15:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35344302)
2 - Financial sector disbanded.

.

Nurse..... Nurse.....Nurse!!....NURSE!!!!

Chris 12-12-2011 15:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35344312)
Nurse..... Nurse.....Nurse!!....NURSE!!!!

The emphasis in this one is equally worrying:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35344302)
1 - regulation introduced to restrict profits in the financial sector.

The aim of regulation should not be to restrict profits, it should be to restrict dangerous activity that puts the savings of ordinary people at risk.

The notion that profit is an inherently bad thing is just nuts. The wheels would come off this country pretty quick if we carried on like that.

Osem 12-12-2011 15:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35344312)
Nurse..... Nurse.....Nurse!!....NURSE!!!!

I fear we may need to call one.... :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35344190)
Germany seems to manage ok without financial institutes.

Yeah right! :rolleyes:

tweetiepooh 12-12-2011 15:56

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Me thinks that it's only really the Germans who do well out of the Euro. They are one of the larger countries both in size and finance but they are pretty much wholly northern European so will tend to have the same thinking about work and finance across the nation.

France is big but stretches more widely that Germany so while the political classes are up north they do have a med "border too".

So we have northern Germany and political France trying to impose a common financial model on countries with very different outlooks and attitudes. Then they wonder why it doesn't work.

Maybe they should have kept national currencies and financial rules and made the Euro a sort of trade currency so businesses could trade across boundaries with less regulation and better pricing and then set prices to consumers according to local conditions.

Chrysalis 12-12-2011 16:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344316)
The emphasis in this one is equally worrying:



The aim of regulation should not be to restrict profits, it should be to restrict dangerous activity that puts the savings of ordinary people at risk.

The notion that profit is an inherently bad thing is just nuts. The wheels would come off this country pretty quick if we carried on like that.

excessive profit is a bad thing, as profits ultimately have to come from somewhere.

you not noticed whenever the top 1% get richer then the rest suffer?

It would seem the US and the UK are sucking the world dry in pure greed cultures.

The financial sector in itself puts the savings of average people at risk, I call it for it to be disbanded and you call me nuts, what is it you want as you cant have both. If you support the financial sector then you support risk.

Hugh 12-12-2011 16:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Only if the average people have more than £85,000 in savings (£170,000 for a joint account) per bank....

Chris 12-12-2011 16:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35344327)
excessive profit is a bad thing, as profits ultimately have to come from somewhere.

you not noticed whenever the top 1% get richer then the rest suffer?

It would seem the US and the UK are sucking the world dry in pure greed cultures.

The financial sector in itself puts the savings of average people at risk, I call it for it to be disbanded and you call me nuts, what is it you want as you cant have both. If you support the financial sector then you support risk.

Chrys, the "financial sector" is a very wide term. It includes the bank where you keep your current account. It includes Paypal and the mechanisms that allow you to collect payments from your customers, and to pay your suppliers, within the Eurozone, and to transfer and convert Euros into Sterling to allow you to pay Direct Debits from your current account.

The financial sector operated perfectly safely for many decades - that much is clear from the first 20 minutes of the documentary being discussed in the other thread just now. It was deregulation of financial services and failure to regulate new financial products that caused the problems, not the existence of the financial sector itself.

Similarly, what exactly is an excessive profit? A large profit in a properly competitive marketplace is a sign of success. It is warped, discredited, Marxist thinking in the extreme to assert that it must of necessity indicate exploitation.

Who determines the level at which a profit is judged 'excessive'?

What action should be taken on excessive profit? Confiscation, or rules that simply prevent a profit being reached? How would such rules be defined?

Most pertinent of all, what's the point of regulating profit levels while doing nothing about the way in which those profits were attained? It wasn't profits that caused the 2008 crash, it was the activity undertaken in pursuit of those profits.

My contention is that you are targeting your ire in the wrong place. You are doing so because you see "disbanding" and "regulation of profit" as the only two options, when they quite simply aren't.

Regulation is most definitely the answer, but it is regulation of behaviour within the industry, not regulation of the outcomes, that is required.

Damien 12-12-2011 16:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Has this veto actually changed anything then? The EU 'Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs' has said that it doesn't exempt the UK from any additional financial regulations they wish to impose. I guess we knew this already as the treaty didn't contain anything about those regulations but it serves as a reminder.

If anything this may have damaged the chances of stopping those regulations as we are now further removed from a decision making within the EU, as well as possibly causing it's existing members to care less about UK demands. It's looking more like political grandstanding rather than effective bargaining for UK interests.

I am also wondering if such regulation is such a bad thing anyway. A year or so ago we were disgusted at how a lack of regulation had allowed banks to cause chaos with our economy and now we are bitterly defending those very same institutions against that regulation being imposed by the EU. When did we suddenly turn full circle on this? Not really sure that it is in the best interests of our country either, that after the last few years nothing has changed other than the debt incurred bailing out banks.

What's the best argument we have in their defence? That will go elsewhere? Well so what? That was true before, when the previous government wouldn't impose stricter regulations for fear it would damage the City. It will always be true. If the banks are happy to be bailed out but unhappy to have to abide by rules to prevent gettting into trouble in the first place then they might as well leave.

Osem 12-12-2011 16:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35344341)
Has this veto actually changed anything then? The EU 'Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs' has said that it doesn't exempt the UK from any additional financial regulations they wish to impose. I guess we knew this already as the treaty didn't contain anything about those regulations but it serves as a reminder.

If anything this may have damaged the chances of stopping those regulations as we are now further removed from a decision making within the EU, as well as possibly causing it's existing members to care less about UK demands. It's looking more like political grandstanding rather than effective bargaining for UK interests.

I am also wondering if such regulation is such a bad thing anything. A year or so ago we were disgusted at how a lack of regulation had allowed banks to cause chaos with our economy and now we are bitterly defending those very same institutions against that regulation being imposed by the EU. Not really sure that is in the interests of our country either, that after the last few years nothing has changed other than the debt incurred bailing out banks. What's the best argument we have in their defence? That will go elsewhere? Well so what? That was true when the current government was blasting the former government for failed regulation over the last 10 years.

So far as I can see they're being defended against a Tobin Tax which wouldn't apply outside Europe, that's the problem. I may be wrong but believe Cameron made the point that any such tax would have to be agreed globally in order to avoid the UK in particular being put at a major competitve disadvantage and the trading simply moving elsewhere. IIRC much of the regulatory change required has already happened.

Chris 12-12-2011 16:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Regulations can be implemented by QMV (qualified majority voting) but taxation would require unanimity (i.e. UK can still veto). AFAIK a lot of regulation is already agreed and set to come in by about 2014.

Damien 12-12-2011 16:34

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35344343)
So far as I can see they're being defended against a Tobin Tax which wouldn't apply outside Europe, that's the problem. IIRC much of the regulatory change required has happened.

I thought the Tobin Tax was one of many regulations being considered by the EU. We wanted an exemption from any EU directive being imposed on our finance industry. That was my understanding anyway....

---------- Post added at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:33 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344345)
Regulations can be implemented by QMV (qualified majority voting) but taxation would require unanimity (i.e. UK can still veto). AFAIK a lot of regulation is already agreed and set to come in by about 2014.

So essentially we always had, and have, the option not to impose the Tobin Tax but abide by the other measures?

Chris 12-12-2011 16:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
One of the beefs the UK government has is the suggestion that the UK cannot unilaterally impose tougher regulations than the ones set by the EU (I think we're challenging that in the European Court at the moment). Resolution of this complaint may have been one of Cameron's negotiating demands last week. The fact that even this demand was not conceded is, IMO, very revealing of the mindset of the French and German governments in particular.

Damien 12-12-2011 16:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344349)
One of the beefs the UK government has is the suggestion that the UK cannot unilaterally impose tougher regulations than the ones set by the EU (I think we're challenging that in the European Court at the moment). Resolution of this complaint may have been one of Cameron's negotiating demands last week. The fact that even this demand was not conceded is, IMO, very revealing of the mindset of the French and German governments in particular.

So essentially we wouldn't sign because we couldn't get assurances that we could impose tougher regulations? That's weird.

Shows what I know...:dunce:

Chris 12-12-2011 16:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Partially, yes. As always the truth is a little more nuanced, and as Europe is such a charged issue in British politics it's phenomenally difficult to get anything like a balanced commentary on what went on and what the consequences might be.

One thing I did notice, this morning, was how effortlessly *David* Milliband set up a convincing line of opposition to David Cameron's summit performance (likening the situation to Anthony Eden's 'failure' to take us into Europe in 1955). That one line has had more resonance than any of the lightweight jaw-flapping his brother has managed to produce at any point in the last three days.

---------- Post added at 15:48 ---------- Previous post was at 15:46 ----------

... that same Ed Milliband is currently on his feet castigating the Tories for not paying attention to Michael Heseltine. :erm:

... or the Deputy PM, who is a member of a different political party whose European policy everybody has always known is pretty much the polar opposite of the Tories'. :erm:

Osem 12-12-2011 16:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35344347)
I thought the Tobin Tax was one of many regulations being considered by the EU. We wanted an exemption from any EU directive being imposed on our finance industry. That was my understanding anyway....

---------- Post added at 15:34 ---------- Previous post was at 15:33 ----------



So essentially we always had, and have, the option not to impose the Tobin Tax but abide by the other measures?



I was referring to UK regulation of the City etc. which IIRC is coming under Bank of England control as opposed to the FSA's.

I think all of the above has to be seen in the context of a relationship with Europe which has proved very difficult over many years and fraught with disagreements. The Franco-German view of the EU has always been substantially different from our own and my feeling is that Cameron did not believe there could be any guarantees that the tax and other regulations could/would not be imposed on the UK by the back door. Given what I hear other EU representative saying after Cameron's veto was used it seems clear to me that there's even disagreement amongst them about how far the existing highly complex treaties go and what is/isn't possible with regard to the UK. As I've said before there's still every chance they'll try to impose new rules/taxes on the UK and we may wind up having to consider leaving the EU altogether. My feeling is that this is what they want.

Chris 12-12-2011 16:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Cameron's on his feet again now.

LIVE: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16136672

---------- Post added at 15:57 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35344358)
As I've said before there's still every chance they'll try to impose new rules/taxes on the UK and we may wind up having to consider leaving the EU altogether. My feeling is that this is what they want.

I think Merkozy (the Sarko part of it in particular) has a better instinctive understanding of the British people's view of Europe than most mainstream British politicians.

If he helps show us the door he will have done us an immense favour.

Chrysalis 12-12-2011 17:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344338)

The financial sector operated perfectly safely for many decades - that much is clear from the first 20 minutes of the documentary being discussed in the other thread just now. It was deregulation of financial services and failure to regulate new financial products that caused the problems, not the existence of the financial sector itself.

I agree which is why I said in earlier posts I would be fine if it was reregulated.

However its evident if we reregulated they would all up and leave.

---------- Post added at 16:07 ---------- Previous post was at 16:00 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344359)
Cameron's on his feet again now.

LIVE: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16136672

---------- Post added at 15:57 ---------- Previous post was at 15:52 ----------


hmm wheres clegg? :)

Damien 12-12-2011 17:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35344356)
One thing I did notice, this morning, was how effortlessly *David* Milliband set up a convincing line of opposition to David Cameron's summit performance (likening the situation to Anthony Eden's 'failure' to take us into Europe in 1955). That one line has had more resonance than any of the lightweight jaw-flapping his brother has managed to produce at any point in the last three days.

How did Labour end up with Ed. :( Dam Unions.

Chris 12-12-2011 17:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35344364)



hmm wheres clegg? :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by BBC
1544: Nick Robinson Political editor
Nick Clegg decided, I'm told, that his presence in the Chamber would be a distraction. Taking the pro European seats on the front bench are Ken Clarke - who I'm told had an important phone conversation with the prime minister over the weekend - and Vince Cable - who used last Monday's cabinet to warn against a negotiating position based on protecting the City.


Ignitionnet 12-12-2011 17:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35344353)
So essentially we wouldn't sign because we couldn't get assurances that we could impose tougher regulations? That's weird.

Shows what I know...:dunce:

Due to harmonisation of regulation the UK may be unable to implement, amongst other things, the ringfencing of retail arms of banks and other sections of Vickers.

Damien 12-12-2011 17:15

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35344374)
Due to harmonisation of regulation the UK may be unable to implement, amongst other things, the ringfencing of retail arms of banks and other sections of Vickers.

Yes, Fair enough. My earlier rant was unwarranted. oops:

Osem 14-12-2011 23:25

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/

Quote:

The euro has fallen further against other major currencies as fears continue over the eurozone's future.
Whilst Sarkozy still apparently thinks France's best interests lie entirely in their 'alliance' with the Germans and getting the UK out of the equation, Merkel seems to have a more conciliatory approach, possibly worrying that France has some way to go to get its own financial house in order and what problems that may entail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16177674

Quote:

Chancellor Angela Merkel has told German MPs that the UK will remain a strong EU partner, despite its decision not to sign up to an EU summit deal.
Anyway, it appears the Swedes, Hungarians, Czechs and Irish are already expressing concerns about the way forward being proposed and I can see others following when the reality hits home. If anyone thought what was agreed last week amounted to very much more than a decision to talk about it all over again I think they may have a shock coming.

Ignitionnet 14-12-2011 23:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...g-for-britain/
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...e-anglophobes/

Not a lot else to say, I'm sure people can find the video of Eurocrats threatening and insulting the UK for daring to ask for, well, the existing agreements to be respected. How rude of us.

Chrysalis 15-12-2011 07:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35345634)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/



Whilst Sarkozy still apparently thinks France's best interests lie entirely in their 'alliance' with the Germans and getting the UK out of the equation, Merkel seems to have a more conciliatory approach, possibly worrying that France has some way to go to get its own financial house in order and what problems that may entail.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16177674



Anyway, it appears the Swedes, Hungarians, Czechs and Irish are already expressing concerns about the way forward being proposed and I can see others following when the reality hits home. If anyone thought what was agreed last week amounted to very much more than a decision to talk about it all over again I think they may have a shock coming.

Good old bbc again.

I have just checked the year graph for the exchange rate.

Last year when the euro dropped the bbc got all excited like they are now.

On march the euro then got stronger and I cannot find any bbc news reports reporting this. So someone without checking into it would think it dropped last christmas and then dropped again further now, whilst whats actually happened is its now the same value as last march. I expect it to drop some more whilst the news agencies get all wet over it, but eventually when more interesting news happens it will recover again in the summer.

Chris 15-12-2011 09:12

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
How are you finding things,, with so much of your business in Euros?

Actually, a bigger question might be, do you have a contingency plan in case the Eurozone goes completely mammaries skywards in the new year?

Osem 15-12-2011 11:06

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35345698)
Good old bbc again.

I have just checked the year graph for the exchange rate.

Last year when the euro dropped the bbc got all excited like they are now.

On march the euro then got stronger and I cannot find any bbc news reports reporting this. So someone without checking into it would think it dropped last christmas and then dropped again further now, whilst whats actually happened is its now the same value as last march. I expect it to drop some more whilst the news agencies get all wet over it, but eventually when more interesting news happens it will recover again in the summer.

I'm not sure what happened to my original link (whether I posted it incorrectly or somehow it got altered) but here it is again:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16181054

It states quite clearly that the fall takes the Euro back to levels last seen in Jan 2011. By definition this means that the Euro has been higher since then so I'm not sure what your point is. I don't know what more 'interesting' news there is than the EU/Eurozone being in crisis which it clearly is but I'd have thought that might explain the focus being more on falls in the Euro than the odd increase which has usually greeted the release 'not so bad news' as opposed to genuinely good news.

Cast your mind back to when Sterling was faring even more miserably against the Euro and the media was fall of reports about the prospect of parity and how awful that was for Brits abroad.

Hugh 15-12-2011 11:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35345698)
Good old bbc again.

I have just checked the year graph for the exchange rate.

Last year when the euro dropped the bbc got all excited like they are now.

On march the euro then got stronger and I cannot find any bbc news reports reporting this. So someone without checking into it would think it dropped last christmas and then dropped again further now, whilst whats actually happened is its now the same value as last march. I expect it to drop some more whilst the news agencies get all wet over it, but eventually when more interesting news happens it will recover again in the summer.

I googled on "bbc news march 2011 euro strengthens against pound"

and the first thing that came up was BBC -Euro strengthens after EU agrees Greece deal

I then googled on "bbc news march 2011 pound falls against euro" and this came up - BBC - Pound falls against dollar and euro on 'recession risk'

Didn't take much looking.....;)

Chrysalis 15-12-2011 12:04

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I looked but didnt look for those words.

Hugh 15-12-2011 12:11

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Don't you think those were the relevant words?

Sirius 15-12-2011 12:20

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35345714)
How are you finding things,, with so much of your business in Euros?

Actually, a bigger question might be, do you have a contingency plan in case the Eurozone goes completely mammaries skywards in the new year?

Very well put :)

Osem 15-12-2011 13:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35345761)
Don't you think those were the relevant words?

:rofl:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35345714)
Actually, a bigger question might be, do you have a contingency plan in case the Eurozone goes completely mammaries skywards in the new year?

A 'Plan B' you mean? :D

Kymmy 15-12-2011 13:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
1 Attachment(s)
No idea if already posted in this thread but this really does say it all ;)

Osem 15-12-2011 13:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
:rofl:

Although since last week it looks like our share of the German excrement is going to be deposited on the other member states to share.

Ignitionnet 15-12-2011 13:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35345793)
:rofl:

Although since last week it looks like our share of the German excrement is going to be deposited on the other member states to share.

Hah, no, looks as though they're all gathering it up to throw at us now.

The plot thickens anyway. Looks as if in the cold, hard light of day some non-Eurozone nations are wondering just what they've signed up for.

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/757...prjcbeot8i3qmr

Chris 15-12-2011 14:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I thought David Davis' comments in this morning's Torygraph were telling.

Quote:

When I was a Foreign Office minister, negotiating one of the endless rounds of treaties, three other states approached me and asked Britain to veto a particular proposal. I said that if they opposed the plan, they should veto it themselves. Their response was telling: only Britain could stand up to the Franco-German axis.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...want-more.html

Hom3r 15-12-2011 14:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
There was a story (Mentioned on Have I got news for you) that Germany was printing loads of Deutsche Marks, so they have 100% confidance in the Euro, me thinks not.

Chris 15-12-2011 14:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The head of the French central bank, Christian Noyer, who is also a governor of the ECB, has thrown his rattle out of the pram and insisted Britain should lose its AAA credit rating before France does.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...CBs-Noyer.html

Chrysalis 15-12-2011 15:02

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35345761)
Don't you think those were the relevant words?

there is many words which could have been relevant.

Alan Fry 15-12-2011 15:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35345840)
The head of the French central bank, Christian Noyer, who is also a governor of the ECB, has thrown his rattle out of the pram and insisted Britain should lose its AAA credit rating before France does.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...CBs-Noyer.html

At this rate only China, India and Brazil will have a AAA credit rating :D

Osem 15-12-2011 15:38

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35345840)
The head of the French central bank, Christian Noyer, who is also a governor of the ECB, has thrown his rattle out of the pram and insisted Britain should lose its AAA credit rating before France does.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...CBs-Noyer.html

lol - I'm sure the ratings agencies will listen to him, NOT! If anything they're likely to be more suspicious of the French situation and Eurozone credibility because of his childish rant I'd have thought.

Who knows whether time will proven Cameron right or wrong on his stance but the more I hear of this sort of pathetic nonsense the more I believe the former.

Hugh 15-12-2011 18:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35345875)
there is many words which could have been relevant.

Just not the ones you chose....;)

Hom3r 15-12-2011 21:14

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
It makes me think should we have sacrificed all those men to liberate Europe some 65 years ago.

Osem 15-12-2011 23:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The UK has been asked to play a role in negotiations over a proposed EU-wide fiscal pact despite refusing to sign up to the proposed agreement.

The Financial Times reported that UK officials were likely to have "observer status" at talks starting next week.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16209414

Thought they didn't love us anymore......

Ignitionnet 15-12-2011 23:21

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35346250)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16209414

Thought they didn't love us anymore......

They're nervous because various non-Eurozone countries have realised what nonsense they're signing up for and are getting cold feet. This ignoring that in Ireland this'll almost certainly require a referendum to which the answer will be a pretty clear 'no'.

Osem 16-12-2011 10:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35346254)
They're nervous because various non-Eurozone countries have realised what nonsense they're signing up for and are getting cold feet. This ignoring that in Ireland this'll almost certainly require a referendum to which the answer will be a pretty clear 'no'.

My post was laced with sarcasm. ;) I agree with your analysis and have already posted to that effect.

Aside from a referendum, IIRC Ireland benefits greatly from much lower corporation tax levels than the rest of the EU and somehow I can't see them being prepared to sacrifice those with the adverse effects so doing would have on their economy.

I really don't know what's driving current EU decision making but it doesn't seem to be common sense. Political tunnel vision, desperation, blind panic maybe? Let's hope not eh....

---------- Post added at 09:41 ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35346373)
some of the eastern europeans are realising that they have traded one overbearing state for another if they sign up for the new treaty.

I wonder how many times the irish will need to be asked before they get it "right" this time? :rolleyes:

"YOU VILL SAY YES!!!!!"
:D

denphone 16-12-2011 15:37

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16209414

Quote:

UK officials will join talks over what should be in a eurozone fiscal pact, despite refusing to sign up to it.

Quote:

It comes as French finance minister Francois Baroin added to tension between Paris and London by saying the British economy was "very worrying".

Quote:

On Thursday, the chairman of the French central bank, Christian Noyer, suggested that any downgrade should instead start with the UK "which has more deficits, as much debt, more inflation, less growth than us".

Quote:

Mr Baroin told Europe 1 radio on Friday: "The economic situation in Britain today is very worrying, and you'd rather be French than British in economic terms."

Osem 16-12-2011 16:31

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
All of which confirms, for those who don't already accept it, that when the going gets tough the gloves come off and the knives come out (excuse the mixed metaphor). It's all a bit "my team's better than your team" isn't it. Does anyone out there really believe people like this are capable of making decisions for the greater good? I don't.

denphone 16-12-2011 16:35

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35346534)
All of which confirms, for those already naive enough not to accept it, that when the going gets tough the gloves come off and the knives come out (excuse the mixed metaphor). Does anyone out there really believe people like this are capable of making decisions for the greater good? I don't.

exactly.:clap:

Osem 16-12-2011 21:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The war of words continues:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-16222988

Quote:

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg has told the French prime minister that steps should be taken to "calm the rhetoric" on the UK economy.

Pierre 17-12-2011 00:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35346496)

Yes, the overriding issue our French neighbours seem to be overlooking is that we're not in the Euro.

Our deficit and growth outlook may be no better than the French or even a little worse, but we haven't got to carry Italy, Greece, Spain & Portugal.

Ignitionnet 17-12-2011 09:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 35346796)
Yes, the overriding issue our French neighbours seem to be overlooking is that we're not in the Euro.

Our deficit and growth outlook may be no better than the French or even a little worse, but we haven't got to carry Italy, Greece, Spain & Portugal.

Our banks are also already recapitalised, 250bln of our debt is held by our central bank and can be torn up at will, and our banks are far, far, far less heavily exposed to the PIIGS with the exception of Ireland who we're assisting unilaterally.

Osem 17-12-2011 11:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Ratings agency Fitch has affirmed France's top-notch AAA credit rating but has revised its outlook on the country to "negative" from "stable".

A negative outlook usually means a downgrade is possible in 12-18 months.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16226543

I expect the French will now be demanding an even worse rating for the UK.

Anyway, it looks like their recent comments directed at the UK have been noted by World Bank President Robert Zoellick:

Quote:

I have been deeply troubled over the past couple of days to see some of the commentary going across the English Channel, not only comments from France but also from Brussels" and others, Zoellick told the Atlantic Council.
Quote:

...at key points like this where it is sensitive, you want to encourage people to act with a higher plane of responsibility," he said. "They need to be careful because I think you've got a tinderbox out there in both political and economic terms," Zoellick added.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7BF1PH20111216

He's right about the 'tinderbox' I believe but I wonder if the French are now going to play "my bank's bigger than your bank" whilst we all sink into the political and economic mire...

Osem 19-12-2011 22:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, has said he has "no doubts" about the euro's ability to survive the current crisis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16253026

I think we're fast getting to the point where most of us don't believe a word any of these people say.

mertle 20-12-2011 20:29

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Fear the bitching is prelude to european War.

If we dont sort it peacefully then I fear thats what will happen. The bitching happening is they acting like school kids in playground before the scrap ensues.

I hope I am very wrong but our loutish kids in power it seems at present. They have one track method solving problems they wont work together you will always have one throw his toys out the pram. First blood to that was cameron squealing like spoilt brat.

Then the french we sadly instead adults being civil admitting you wont get all what you want and concede ground at least you working to common goal.

We wont solve europe issues due to pettyness bratish behavour so sadly it will end in only way brats behave thats war.

denphone 20-12-2011 20:33

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mertle (Post 35348644)
Fear the bitching is prelude to european War.

If we dont sort it peacefully then I fear thats what will happen. The bitching happening is they acting like school kids in playground before the scrap ensues.

I hope I am very wrong but our loutish kids in power it seems at present. They have one track method solving problems they wont work together you will always have one throw his toys out the pram. First blood to that was cameron squealing like spoilt brat.

Then the french we sadly instead adults being civil admitting you wont get all what you want and concede ground at least you working to common goal.

We wont solve europe issues due to pettyness bratish behavour so sadly it will end in only way brats behave thats war.

l somehow do not think a European war is likely despite our huge differences as no country ever wants to go through the terrible events of two world wars that costs many many lives and took countries twenty years to rebuild afterwards.

Hugh 20-12-2011 20:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mertle (Post 35348644)
Fear the bitching is prelude to european War.

If we dont sort it peacefully then I fear thats what will happen. The bitching happening is they acting like school kids in playground before the scrap ensues.

I hope I am very wrong but our loutish kids in power it seems at present. They have one track method solving problems they wont work together you will always have one throw his toys out the pram. First blood to that was cameron squealing like spoilt brat.

Then the french we sadly instead adults being civil admitting you wont get all what you want and concede ground at least you working to common goal.

We wont solve europe issues due to pettyness bratish behavour so sadly it will end in only way brats behave thats war.

You are very wrong.

Wars happen over resources or territory, not people bitching about each other.

Sirius 20-12-2011 20:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35348651)
You are very wrong.

Wars happen over resources or territory, not people bitching about each other.

Or started because someone has a thing about the tories ;)

Wonder if we can get Blair to make up some lies thats should do the trick if you want a war :LOL:

devilincarnate 20-12-2011 21:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35348659)
Or started because someone has a thing about the tories ;)

Never mind them all the parties are to blame

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirius (Post 35348659)
Wonder if we can get Blair to make up some lies thats should do the trick if you want a war :LOL:

What again?

Sirius 20-12-2011 21:07

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by devilincarnate (Post 35348664)
Never mind them all the parties are to blame



Agreed

Quote:

Originally Posted by devilincarnate (Post 35348664)

What again?

Indeed, He was so good at it :)

Osem 22-12-2011 12:17

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

The implied cost of borrowing for Hungary has risen after ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded the country's debt to junk status
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16298773

How much more 'junk' is there within the EU I wonder? :erm:

Chrysalis 22-12-2011 12:41

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
am I the only one who is sceptical about an american private company dropping ratings of EU countries?

Osem 22-12-2011 13:43

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
You mean perhaps it'd be more credible if it were a company owned by the Hungarians or Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish etc. etc. etc? :D

Anyway, just in case you're suggesting some form of undue national and/or political bias (as opposed to pure ineptitude) that same US agency quite recently downgraded its ratings for the US from AAA to AA+

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/rich...ebt?CMP=twt_gu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_%26_Poor's

Osem 22-12-2011 18:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Italy's senate has passed a confidence vote on austerity measures planned by Prime Minister Mario Monti.

The package includes spending cuts, tax rises and pension reforms. It had already passed in the lower house.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16301956

Found this one interesting - cash transactions above 1,000 euros outlawed to discourage tax evasion!

Chrysalis 22-12-2011 18:12

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35349493)
You mean perhaps it'd be more credible if it were a company owned by the Hungarians or Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Portuguese, Irish etc. etc. etc? :D

Anyway, just in case you're suggesting some form of undue national and/or political bias (as opposed to pure ineptitude) that same US agency quite recently downgraded its ratings for the US from AAA to AA+

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/rich...ebt?CMP=twt_gu

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_%26_Poor's

no it would still be dodgy.

this is the same agency rating subprime mortgages triple AAA

Osem 22-12-2011 18:18

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
So now your original point about it being an American private company dropping ratings of EU countries is totally irrelevant then? It's just a dodgy company pure and simple.

Phew, I'm so glad that things aren't really as bad as they look..... :rolleyes:

Chrysalis 22-12-2011 18:23

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
no

I said the fact its both american and a private company and especially one that in my view has acted wrongfully in the past makes the change of ratings dodgy also with the warning france had a swell. Both of these events happened shortly after the uk using its veto.

So when I said if it was a eu agency would I agree with it been dodgy that would be under the basis of a eu agency gave greece a triple AAA rating, I would find that dodgy.

Given economically we are worse off than france I think the france finance minister was right on his comments, and the only reason I think we didnt get the same warning was our better relationship with america so in my eyes was political.

Osem 22-12-2011 18:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrysalis (Post 35349602)
no

I said the fact its both american and a private company and especially one that in my view has acted wrongfully in the past makes the change of ratings dodgy also with the warning france had a swell. Both of these events happened shortly after the uk using its veto.

So when I said if it was a eu agency would I agree with it been dodgy that would be under the basis of a eu agency gave greece a triple AAA rating, I would find that dodgy.

Given economically we are worse off than france I think the france finance minister was right on his comments, and the only reason I think we didnt get the same warning was our better relationship with america so in my eyes was political.

So it is about it being an American company again then? :confused:

You only added the bit about S&P's previous 'mistakes' in your second post after I'd posted the wikipedia link. Your OP only stated you were sceptical about an American private company.......'

So how does the UK's better political relationship with the US percolate through to S&P giving us a better rating than we deserve? Is that down to the company or the US Govt or both and how would it serve either to do that whilst downgrading the US rating which is far more important to both?

Sirius 22-12-2011 18:44

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
There sooner it all collapses the better so we can start to rebuild .

nomadking 22-12-2011 18:58

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The ratings are not so such about any current financial situation, but about the prospects for any money to be paid back in the future. If a government can clearly show that they have at least the will to tackle any issues, then they will be rated more favourably. People striking or rioting (eg in Greece) because they don't like what is required, will not help any situation. That would also adversely affect any confidence to invest.

Osem 23-12-2011 16:27

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
I found this an interesting read:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16305731

Quote:

It is a feature of the year past how quickly old stereotypes have re-emerged, with cartoons and pictures in many different countries depicting Angela Merkel as a Prussian, as Bismarck or even Hitler.

Chancellor Merkel has called for "more Europe". While leaders accept this when sitting around a big table in Brussels they find it far harder to sell back home.

There is strong debate in some countries over seeing some sovereignty over tax and spending plans transferred to European officials. "Sovereignty" or "who governs France" may well become an issue in the forthcoming French elections.

Osem 31-12-2011 15:30

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
.... and things are even getting tough in Switzerland where their 'safe bet' currency has risen sharply creating massive problems for exporters.

Quote:

Outsider Switzerland feels Europe's pain
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16354048

Osem 05-01-2012 09:03

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This is an interesting, if worrying, read:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16412705

Quote:

Greece, with its unelected leader, is marching to the EU/IMF tune. The Greek economy this year will contract by a further 3%, having shrunk 6% last year. Its retail sales are down 30%. A quarter of small businesses and shops are closing. There are large withdrawals of funds and much of the money is being moved out of the country.
:shocked:

Then there's resentment towards Germany:

Quote:

Already there is resentment towards Germany for trying to shape other eurozone economies to its own economic model. There are signs that the currency that was supposed to further unite Europe is sowing new divisions.
and resentment within Germany:

Quote:

Berlin increasingly has the feel of Europe's capital. For the moment the political class is committed to defending the euro. What is still unclear is what price Germany is prepared to pay to keep the eurozone together. Bild - its best-selling paper - had this headline last year: "They all want our money".

Alan Fry 05-01-2012 12:01

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35354992)
This is an interesting, if worrying, read:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16412705



:shocked:

Then there's resentment towards Germany:



and resentment within Germany:

god knows what will happen in Europe this year!

Hugh 05-01-2012 13:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well, Tottenham are unlikely to be there....

Alan Fry 05-01-2012 13:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 35355136)
Well, Tottenham are unlikely to be there....

what do you mean?

Ignitionnet 05-01-2012 22:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
This might be interesting, Daniel Hannan. I obviously agree, but I would love to see if anyone offers up any counter arguments?

Osem 13-01-2012 22:42

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Even by the recent standards of the eurozone, Friday 13 January has been a messy day.

What may turn out to be most important is that the Greek government moved nearer to a formal default on what it owes, as talks collapsed between the Greek premier, Lucas Papademos, and representatives of banks on a voluntary 50% reduction on what they are repaid.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16556860

Some of those 'rock solid' Eurozone banks are going to have to take a major 'haircut'*....

* http://financial-dictionary.thefreed...ry.com/Haircut

ntluser 13-01-2012 23:16

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
The problem for the Eurozone is that you have economies of varying strengths trying to maintain the Euro.

The matter is made worse by the debts of some of the weaker economies and the fact that the stronger economies are having to bail them out.

It would be simpler if they recognized the fact that the Euro was dead and allowed all economies to return to their original currencies at a level they could easily support.

Countries like Greece are just going to have reduce their spending and learn to live within their means like everybody else.

Trying to maintain the Euro is likely to end up dragging down all the other economies and if that happens the Eurozone will not be salvageable.

Osem 14-01-2012 11:32

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
If so, perhaps they could play them a tape of Harold Wilson explaining that their currencies are going to be devalued but that doesn't mean the money in their pockets will be worth less.... :rolleyes:

For anyone too young to remember:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIQnpoGBS1I

martyh 14-01-2012 11:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35361887)
If so, perhaps they could play them a tape of Harold Wilson explaining that their currencies are going to be devalued but that doesn't mean the money in their pockets will be worth less.... :rolleyes:

For anyone too young to remember:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIQnpoGBS1I

i cried when my pocket money couldn't buy a lucky bag anymore

Sirius 14-01-2012 12:49

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
:LOL:

This is so close to the truth its sad, Fast forward the first 30 seconds

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GO4GG...eature=related

ntluser 14-01-2012 13:28

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Things will start to hot up now that a number of Eurozone countries have had their credit ratings down-valued.

Does not look good for Sarcozy prior to the French elections.

Maybe politicians will start to think the unthinkable i.e. that things might be helped if THEY cut their OWN salaries instead of those of everybody else. A person on £100k per year is equivalent to 10 workers on £10k per year but it is doubtful if they do 10 times the work.

Sadly, this government have not realized that more highly paid bosses means fewer actual workers on the ground. Instead of sacking workers they should have reduced wages especially those at the top who have been disproportionately overpaid.

Nice to see that the Lloyds CEO has waived his obscene £2.4 million bonus. That will probably save the jobs of poorer bank workers lower down the chain of command. Pity more bosses cannot think like that instead of simply sacking workers to improve the balance sheet.

The government itself is definitely out of touch with the lives of ordinary people and seems to be more pound foolish than penny wise!! Maybe if they were all on lower salaries they would appreciate better the economics of everyday life for the poor and unemployed in Coalition Britain.

Osem 23-01-2012 22:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has warned the world faces an economic spiral reminiscent of the 1930s unless action is taken on the eurozone crisis.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16689211

Quote:

She said the Fund needed 500bn euros more to help sustain those countries worst hit by the eurozone crisis.
They're talking 'silly money' now......

martyh 23-01-2012 22:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35368137)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16689211



They're talking 'silly money' now......

ok so we all raise the 500bl what happens when that runs out ?

Osem 23-01-2012 22:59

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35368142)
ok so we all raise the 500bl what happens when that runs out ?

They'll print some more??... :erm:

martyh 23-01-2012 23:13

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35368145)
They'll print some more??... :erm:

like this :D




http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...1&d=1327356713

Alan Fry 24-01-2012 11:39

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35368137)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16689211



They're talking 'silly money' now......

It might be more than that!

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:12 ----------

Here is how the BBC thinks about how will the euro crisis end:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16098582

Osem 25-01-2012 19:50

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Well Merkel reckons a 'big rethink' is needed:

Quote:

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has told the World Economic Forum that a "big rethink" is needed in the eurozone within the global economy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16720460

Does this mean she now realises the 'one size fits all' Euro straightjacket doesn't work I wonder? :rolleyes: What is driving this Eurolalaland obsession?? :confused:

denphone 25-01-2012 19:52

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35368158)

Can l have it to buy Mayfair Martyh.:D

Osem 25-01-2012 19:54

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35369112)
Can l have it to buy Mayfair Martyh.:D

That wouldn't get you a weeks rent on a bedsit in Lambeth mate! :D

denphone 25-01-2012 20:00

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35369115)
That wouldn't get you a weeks rent on a bedsit in Lambeth mate! :D

l better start playing the game to garner a bit more cash in order for me to upsize then.:D

Osem 25-01-2012 21:22

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 35369118)
l better start playing the game to garner a bit more cash in order for me to upsize then.:D

Become a peer then you can fiddle all you like and claim poverty when you're caught.... ;)

Or become a Labour PM promising to help the poor and when you've been rumbled and booted out, spend most of your life making money and buying multi-million pound property.

Alan Fry 26-01-2012 09:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35369109)
Well Merkel reckons a 'big rethink' is needed:



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16720460

Does this mean she now realises the 'one size fits all' Euro straightjacket doesn't work I wonder? :rolleyes: What is driving this Eurolalaland obsession?? :confused:

She wants to move futher towards a United States of Europe!

tweetiepooh 26-01-2012 16:19

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by martyh (Post 35368158)

I thought "modern" Monopoly had more zero's on the notes, now where have we seen that before??http://www.museumoftechnology.org.uk...s/A0465_ex.jpg

Osem 27-01-2012 11:48

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Spain's unemployment figure passed the five million mark in the last quarter of 2011, official figures show.

The new figures show more than half of all 16-24 year-olds are jobless - 51.4% compared with 45.8% before.
:shocked:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-16754600

denphone 27-01-2012 11:51

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35370142)

Christ l cannot believe its gone over 5 million and don't it tell us that things are more then bad but absolutely dreadful in parts of Europe.

Alan Fry 27-01-2012 12:05

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35370142)

If this continues on, they Europe would be facing big poltical change!

denphone 27-01-2012 21:09

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
http://rt.com/news/fitch-downgrade-eu-countries-919/

Quote:

Ratings agency Fitch has downgraded the credit ratings for five European nations, namely Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain.

*The agency stated the revision was made due to "the absence of a credible financial firewall against contagion and self-fulfilling liquidity crises" and "the marked deterioration in the economic outlook" in Europe

Osem 28-01-2012 20:36

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

A leaked plan from the German government proposes a eurozone "budget commissioner" to take control of Greece's tax and spending, reports say.

The Financial Times, which has a copy of the plan, calls it an "extraordinary extension" of EU control.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16773974

That'll go down well in Greece won't it? :rolleyes: How long before they want EU appointed 'commissioners' to run Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland etc?....

gba93 28-01-2012 20:57

Re: Eurozone will collapse...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35371112)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16773974

That'll go down well in Greece won't it? :rolleyes: How long before they want EU appointed 'commissioners' to run Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland etc?....

Note to Damien & Hugh - remember this post that you rubbished:

Quote:

The end result could still be the same for the weaker countries - lack of freedom, inability to govern according to the will of the people and being dictated to by another country (or countries)


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 10:01.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
All Posts and Content are © Cable Forum