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papa smurf 23-09-2021 12:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Leading expert says issue of long COVID 'slightly overblown'

Some more now from Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, who's been giving his thoughts on the pandemic today.

He said he believed the issue of long COVID "has been slightly overblown", with "proper epidemiological studies" finding the incidence of it is "much lower than people had anticipated".

Sir John told Times Radio he agreed with England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, that the vast majority of children would get infected without a jab.

But he added there are "no bad consequences" in children with COVID and "I don't think there's any reason to panic".

He said: "I don't think we're going to have a lot of children in intensive care units. And in fact, the evidence is we don't, we never have."

The likelihood of severe disease is quite small, he added.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...emand-12406800

jfman 23-09-2021 12:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
I always question the credibility of people who contradict themselves within a mere few sentences.

“No bad consequences”. Makes a great headline. Clear. Definitive. Absolute.

“I don't think” feature twice in the follow up. Speculation. Guesswork.

“a lot of children” subjective.

“is quite small” subjective and sounds very likely to be non-zero. Quite a climbdown from “no bad consequences”.

What he means to say is there’s some bad consequences but as long as the coin keeps coming in for saying the right things at the right time he thinks that’s a price worth paying.

Hugh 23-09-2021 13:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Since there are 13 million under-16s in the U.K., ”quite small" could be "quite a lot"…

heero_yuy 23-09-2021 14:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
Professor Chris Witty reckons half of children have already had it:



Seeing as they're not queueing round the block to get into ICU suggests that the effects are mild.

papa smurf 23-09-2021 14:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36094128)
Since there are 13 million under-16s in the U.K., ”quite small" could be "quite a lot"…

or it could be 6,but what does he know he's only a leading expert.

jfman 23-09-2021 14:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36094134)
or it could be 6,but what does he know he's only a leading expert.

2016 mate. We’ve had enough of experts.

OLD BOY 23-09-2021 15:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36094126)
I always question the credibility of people who contradict themselves within a mere few sentences.

“No bad consequences”. Makes a great headline. Clear. Definitive. Absolute.

“I don't think” feature twice in the follow up. Speculation. Guesswork.

“a lot of children” subjective.

“is quite small” subjective and sounds very likely to be non-zero. Quite a climbdown from “no bad consequences”.

What he means to say is there’s some bad consequences but as long as the coin keeps coming in for saying the right things at the right time he thinks that’s a price worth paying.

You are far too word-pedantic, jfman. I’d stick to ranting about ‘linear’ if I were you.

The number of children who even know they’ve had Covid is vanishingly small. Nothing to see here, let’s move on.

---------- Post added at 15:01 ---------- Previous post was at 15:00 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36094132)
Professor Chris Witty reckons half of children have already had it:



Seeing as they're not queueing round the block to get into ICU suggests that the effects are mild.

Quite, Heero.

jfman 23-09-2021 15:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36094136)
You are far too word-pedantic, jfman. I’d stick to ranting about ‘linear’ if I were you.

The number of children who even know they’ve had Covid is vanishingly small. Nothing to see here, let’s move on.

---------- Post added at 15:01 ---------- Previous post was at 15:00 ----------



Quite, Heero.

If there’s ever someone to wade in with speculative nonsense upon speculative nonsense it’s you OB.

I take it Covid will go away by itself next summer as it didn’t last, nor this.

I’m not being pedantic. Those are his actual words presented in context from the quoted article.

If he believes mass transmission between children is a price worth paying then he should say that. Not the words he actually said.

We know where you stand regardless with your persistently discredited shield the vulnerable.

OLD BOY 23-09-2021 15:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
All of us on here, I think, know what was meant by the words used.

As for me, I stand by the things I have said previously on this subject, jfman, based on what was known at the time I said them.

Why would we not want to shield the vulnerable?

You really are a hindsight visionary of the first order.

jonbxx 23-09-2021 15:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36094120)
Leading expert says issue of long COVID 'slightly overblown'

Some more now from Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, who's been giving his thoughts on the pandemic today.

He said he believed the issue of long COVID "has been slightly overblown", with "proper epidemiological studies" finding the incidence of it is "much lower than people had anticipated".

Sir John told Times Radio he agreed with England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, that the vast majority of children would get infected without a jab.

But he added there are "no bad consequences" in children with COVID and "I don't think there's any reason to panic".

He said: "I don't think we're going to have a lot of children in intensive care units. And in fact, the evidence is we don't, we never have."

The likelihood of severe disease is quite small, he added.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-new...emand-12406800

As others have said, there are some words doing some heavy lifting there that don't inspire confidence. It also assumes that the sole reason to vaccinate children is to stop them getting ill which is not necessarily the case. Yes, it stops kids getting sick, it may also lower the number of kids being kept at home due to positive test but most importantly, it will lower the chances of infecting those that will get seriously ill if they get it.

That's a decision we have had to make in our house. My mother (in her mid-70s) lives at the other end of the country and we have not seen her in real life for getting on for two years. She's double jabbed and so am I and my wife but the kids weren't and the infection rate in kids is pretty high. Knowing that they will get the jab next week gives me the confidence that the chance of giving her COVID that sneaks past her vaccination is much lower. It's the old 'Swiss cheese' for lowering risk. Getting the kids vaccinated adds another layer of 'cheese'.

This was also how I sold the vaccination to my kids. One hates jabs but lowering the risk of infecting their nan was incentive enough. I also used the example of HPV jabs for boys as they are of that age. My two are girls who really need the HPV jab. Boys don't, they get warts, not cervical cancer but jabbing boys lowers the risk for girls on top of their own jabs.

jfman 23-09-2021 15:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36094146)
All of us on here, I think, know what was meant by the words used.

I stand by the things I have said previously on this subject, jfman, based on what was known at the time I said them.

You really are a hindsight visionary of the first order.

Rubbish.

I’ll stick to jonbxx and others insights on this subject as opposed to your Covid denialism.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx
As others have said, there are some words doing some heavy lifting there that don't inspire confidence.


mrmistoffelees 24-09-2021 18:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Singapore moving to tighten restrictions due to a spike in cases/release pressure on healthcare

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ns-2021-09-24/

OLD BOY 24-09-2021 21:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36094148)
Rubbish.

I’ll stick to jonbxx and others insights on this subject as opposed to your Covid denialism.

I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.

Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.

Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.

jfman 24-09-2021 21:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36094379)
I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.

Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.

Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.

Anything to add on the substantive point OB or is it Friday night and you are just bored? Was I being pedantic or offering reasonable comment?

Hugh 24-09-2021 22:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36094379)
I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.

Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.

Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.

According to the British Society for Immunology, that statement is not true.

https://www.immunology.org/coronavir...ection-vaccine
Quote:

Likely that for most people vaccination will induce more effective & longer lasting immunity compared to natural infection
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1632516536

Also…

https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/co...us-vaccination
Quote:

If you've had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?

The data is clear: Natural immunity is not better. The COVID-19 vaccines create more effective and longer-lasting immunity than natural immunity from infection.
More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies
Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity
Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective than natural immunity plus vaccination..

… Natural immunity fades more quickly than vaccine immunity

Natural immunity can decay within about 90 days. Immunity from COVID-19 vaccines has been shown to last longer. Both Pfizer and Moderna reported strong vaccine protection for at least six months.

Studies are ongoing to evaluate the full duration of protective immunity, including the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.

Real-world studies also indicate natural immunity's short life. For example, 65% of people with a lower baseline antibody from infection to begin with completely lost their COVID-19 antibodies by 60 days.

What about that Israeli study suggesting natural immunity is stronger? Infectious diseases expert James Lawler, MD, MPH, FIDSA, carefully evaluates the study design of the retrospective Maccabi Health System study in his Aug. 31 briefing. In the briefing, he identifies two concerning sources of error that were not corrected for: survivorship bias and selection bias.


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