Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Trade isn't just about tariffs though it's about regulatory alignment, customs checks and, in the specific case of the EU, workers' ability to move back and forth. We know the problems in Dover for example. The amount of red tape and paperwork added to trade increases time and cost.

As an example remember the arguments we had on here about Just in Time manufacturing. That doesn't hold if there are delays moving parts in/out of Britain.

I just don't think it's arguable that Brexit hit our economic performance. I think it's a bit mad that should be seen as controversial. That you could leave a massive economic block like the EU, don't really replace it with anything (which was initially the argument from the Brexit camp), and pretended it didn't have an impact. It's also true that COVID played a massive part as well coupled with general economic incompetence from the government and topped off with generally low productivity that we also seem to have had a problem with.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Some of the hard Brexit approaches have added considerable costs to manufacturing with no benefits. In the short term, companies may absorb them but longer term, as we have seen, investment has fallen significantly which does not bode well.

https://www.ft.com/content/f41e3350-...0-80d3a483ef8d

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

A look at some of the headlines I'm reading today supports the points you're making:

https://news.sky.com/story/businesse...0is%20done.%22

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...085ce9739c3875

These non-tariff barriers are likely to contribute heavily to this:
https://www.theguardian.com/business...pandemic-level

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Under pressure!
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/us...elated_stories

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I know we just love to see everything through the Brexit lens here but the fact is domestic American politics are also at play. Biden identifies as Irish-American, and regardless of how daft and arbitrary Americans’ preoccupation with their European ancestry can be, the Irish-American vote matters to Democrats. He has to stand by his previous comments on this issue regardless of how badly he may personally want to attend. It is obviously untenable for there not to be senior US government representation, hence Blinken’s name is being floated. However I suspect when it comes to it, Biden will come. The GFA isn’t just about the UK, it’s about Ireland, and Biden thinks he’s Irish.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/sta...87099519389698

from the torygraph

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

A closer relationship with the EU, i.e customs union or similar arrangement, will be on the cards if this pattern continues.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

https://news.sky.com/story/ni-protoc...-deal-12783377

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The NI development is really good news and I hope it removes the reason for Stormont not sitting. My only concern is if the ERG ultras don't like it.

From what I read in the FT, the Ukraine war has brought Europe together more so these are now far less tense negotiations. And having a more pragmatic PM is helpful too.

---------- Post added at 09:53 ---------- Previous post was at 09:49 ----------

I think a far closer relationship will occur over time - gravity of trade drives this. I believe Labour has plans to align veterinary standards to try and improve food exports to the EU.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

A bit like the EEC or similar then.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I agree. Given the economic disaster that Brexit is, I can see EFTA alignment and then entry sooner rather than later. With the percentage of voters thinking it was wrong to Leave approaching 60%, EU alignment in some form is inevitable.

It is sort of ironic that the handling of Leave by the Party that spawned it, will accelerate its demise.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Probably a modified version of something like that.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Is the problem with the HMRC or the criminals stealing from the public purse?


And are lower recovering figure due to less staff or people earning less due to the pandemic so less being needed to be recovered?Stats can be made to say anything.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yeah, there’s a whiff of victim-blaming about this. It’s actually the pursuit of tax avoidance that’s at issue, and ultimately the blame for tax avoidance lies with the tax avoider.

You wouldn’t know that from the FT though, which has chosen to regurgitate a Lib Dem press release instead of doing any actual journalism here. The way they talk about tax going uncollected you would think there was a fundamental problem with the way they issue tax demands or maintain self assessment systems.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...nnual-bulletin

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Just to confirm:

Clear redirection of HMRC resources away from tax compliance. Another Brexit benefit ..

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

:zzz:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Your point? You are welcoming the additional loss of tax revenues in addition to the losses already in place due to the Hard Brexit.

Given the state of the country, I am surprised people celebrate the loss of monies that are so desperately needed.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

So was tackling tax evasion and reducing opportunities for aggressive tax avoidance…

https://www.conservatives.com/our-pl...manifesto-2019

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1673985173

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

But they got Brexit done!

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That would be the whole point of this topic, but well spotted anyway. ;)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Daily Telegraph joins the Bregreters!
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...4d991475fb1e23

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I am sensing, and it is a common theme now the reality, forecast in advance, has come to pass and that is one of anger & denial. Anger in being proved wrong and denial where that is literally all that remains of the project.

BTW, "we" did not decide to leave the EU. The tragic irony is that the Tories demand, in the name of "democracy", that the Unions achieve a minimum percentage in ballots for strike action. If the Tories applied their own rules for Brexit, it would never have happened.

Polls all over the EU and now far more in favour of staying in the EU than they were. All because of the self inflicted disaster that the UK played out on the world stage.

Some glory and rejoice in our national humiliation, I'd rather, like the Telegraph, us get back on the road to prosperity and align ourselves again with the EU.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yes but the definition of insanity is ".. doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”. The con trick failed as it always was going to. Economic gravity demanded it.

Yes, we can continue getting poorer while the economy is remodelled for benefits of the ultra wealthy but that was not what was sold to those who put their faith in Leave. The con has been revealed and the snake oil salesmen are still selling their product.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

How many more Prime Ministers do you need to prove that you can't put lipstick on a pig. You've had four of them!

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

So are we saying that we vote to leave but the job of implementing the result is being performed by those who want to remain (and maybe be part of a federal Europe) so have deliberately fouled up the process?


That's not to excuse bad policies though.


We do have to remember that we have had COVID, Ukraine and other happenings that were not in the road map and required some redirection. Brexit would have been hard enough without all of that happening too.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

No, we aren’t saying that…

(Well, some people are, but that’s more about the "well, we can’t deliver what we promised, so we need to hold some else responsible" approach rather than being evidence-based…).

Remember all the benefits listed by Jacob Rees-Mogg when he was given the job of Brexit Opportunities Minister?

No, me neither…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

TBF He did mention that we would be able to have more powerful vacuum cleaners

---------- Post added at 12:49 ---------- Previous post was at 12:37 ----------

Just IMHO The problem is now that Brexit is done (or is still in the process of being done depending on your view) there hasn't been anything of observable value to the average person in the street. People may say that we're free of X and Y but if that new found freedom isn't put to use in a way that the country can benefit from, then simply what is the point ?

Is it a case of an incompetent government? or, are there no actual benefits for the average joe/josephine. apart from vacuum cleaners?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You point out that there have been no tangible benefits and you are correct. You forgot the immense cost in loss of tax revenues, loss of skilled EU workers, red tape hitting Just In Time systems, the list literally goes on and on and on. People are starting to see the real costs in their pocket and they are rightly wanting to know why. The con men are taking people for suckers (pun intended).

It is a case of utmost delusion that the promised Vote Leave paradise would have been had "if it wasn't for those pesky kids"*

*paraphrase as my homage to my childhood TV watching Scooby Doo

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I fear the government is too worried about keeping the ERG on board to adopt such policies as equivalence. If they did, there would be even more whingeing from that camp about a betrayal and Remainers sabotaging Brexit.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I dont need to point the costs out, they're being repeatedly being pointed out by various media outlets

---------- Post added at 13:59 ---------- Previous post was at 13:57 ----------

I think you've just made my point, rhetorical statement delivered but with zero benefit to the average member of the public.

The issues for business with regards to Brexit have long proceeded Truss and her shambolic tenure. Don't try and scapegoat her, you're better than that.

I'd bet that ultimately we will rejoin the EU, it may take twenty years possibly even longer but I'll wager that what happens.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Who knows what anyone will be doing in 20 years, the EU may not even exist.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

We will not join the EU first, we'll start with EFTA I am guessing and much sooner than in 20 yrs. Within 5 to 10 years I am thinking ..

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Quite, but I would of thought it was fairly obvious that the point was made with the assumption that the EU would still be in existence.....

---------- Post added at 14:48 ---------- Previous post was at 14:39 ----------

Ah like BritishVolt? The company that went into administration yesterday?

The current lot aren't interested in investment led on new technologies, they're preparing for a probable spell in the wilderness. I don't hold out much hope for the alternatives.

The implementation of Brexit can probably be best described as King Arthur vs The Black Knight

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I came across this analysis on Reddit and thought it does a really good job of capturing the reality of our recent experience:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

A good analysis, up to a point. Sadly however the author clearly comes from the left-leaning school that thinks chanting Tory! Tory! Tory! is a handy way of summoning a bogeyman, a suitably ill-defined thing that is generally agreed to be not very nice and therefore a suitable target to blame for whatever.

However, there are two obvious weaknesses, the first being that the infrastructure required to deliver state services has long lead-times and really ought to have been in the planning years before it was needed, or at the very least right from when the need became apparent. And that wasn’t at the point of the financial crash, it was when free movement was first extended to Eastern Europe and the *Labour* government then in charge took an active decision not to invoke any of the temporary limitations allowable under EU law.

The second obvious weakness is to blame failure in domestic government policy while taking it as given that uncontrolled migration across a bloc with wildly different living standards is itself an unimpeachably good thing. The author hasn’t made that case and shouldn’t assume it to be so.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think the more immediate risk if you're a Brexiter is the prospect of a customs union. I don't think we're long from a Government working out that solves far more issues right now in terms of NI, Calais and imports than it will cause them trouble with voters.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think all but the most zealous of Brexiters acknowledge that Johnson's deal was not an oven-ready one but a half-baked one, and and a closer relationship with our main trading partner to reduce trade friction and raise GDP and tax revenues is needed.

The trade-offs are becoming clearer now the fog of Covid has lifted but this issue is one for the next government and not the embers of the current one given the divisive influence of the ERG on the current government.

https://www.ft.com/content/a13f684f-...e-55bb3ce55712

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think the economic realities of a UK outside the EU are starting to bite.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...6&d=1675167569

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Not just trade, also growth
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1675167734

See full story at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450882

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Was listening to Barnier on the Andrew Marr show earlier and he said Guy Verhofstadt said without Brexit he didn't think Russia would have invaded Ukraine last year, interesting that everything we were warned about is coming true and none of the things we were promised are coming to fruition and no one is being held accountable for their promises

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Yeah right, I'm sure that was top of Putins reasons. :rolleyes:

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I also heard that without Brexit China wouldn’t have released COVID from a lab in Wuhan.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Guy Verhostadt holds a special loathing for all things British, and has done for a great many years. He was infamous in his speeches in the European Parliament long before Brexit was a thing. I wouldn’t raise anything he says in support of any argument you might want to make. It doesn’t strengthen your position.

With particular regard to Ukraine, it takes a special sort of strategic idiocy (which to be fair Verhostadt appears to have in spades) to still be obsessed with the idea that 2022 was the inflection point in this crisis. Putin invaded Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. That in turn was preceded by similar adventurism in Georgia, with similar justifications, in 2008. Meanwhile the West gave every indication that it no longer had any interest in intervention in other people’s wars by refusing to back rebels against the Assad regime in Syria in 2011. The Western response has been tardy in the extreme but for Putin this is a continuity of planning that has been ongoing for a long time.

Yes, Russia’s geopolitical strategy is to divide western democracies because it calculated it was stronger, in its will to succeed and in its military ability to do so, than any of them acting alone. But Putin is informed by a vision of a renewed imperial Russia and has been playing an exceedingly long game. Ukraine is the jewel in the crown because many of Russia’s cultural and religious origins are actually in Kyiv, not St Petersburg and certainly not Moscow. It was always going to end here (and in fact, if Russia is not resoundingly beaten in Ukraine and kept under sanction for a very long time, it *will* flare up again).

In the 18th century, Russia invaded Crimea repeatedly and took 80 years to finally secure it and forcibly incorporate it into its empire. That’s the portion of Russian history that informs Putin’s motives and his timescales. The invasion of *more of* Ukraine in 2022 has absolutely, literally feck-all to do with Brexit and you oughtn’t to make yourself sound as much a chump as Verhostadt does on a daily basis by claiming otherwise.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

You don't think a weakened EU played into puti's hands, interesting

You might find that helpful

I'd have thought if he loathed us that much he'd have kept his mouth shut, don't you think it's complimentary to say we were stronger with you than without


Barny was quite clear that he said the full invasion last year wouldn't have happened

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

None of the war studies academics I’m following have made such a claim, and one of them will be a Lib Dem candidate at the next election (Mike Martin, @ThreshedThought on the Twitters).

Forgive me for dismissing the views of career Europhiles trying to big up their part.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Brexit obviously didn't pay much, if any, part in Putin's decision. If so then why invade in 2014? Why wait so long after Brexit to do it? Why make the EU the deciding factor rather than NATO?

Putin banked on a divided West I think but that could more likely have been a misreading that Biden's exit from Afghanistan showed he was continuing Trump's isolationist skew in American foreign policy and therefore they wouldn't have the will to back Ukraine. Maybe he interpreted Brexit as evidence of Britain disengaging from the world but that would have been an idiotic view that any half-competent analyst would have warmed him against.

He clearly wasn't expecting this unity from the West nor the resistance from the Ukrainian people but it's hard to draw the line from Brexit to that other than Brexit is just one of several things you could point to show a general picture of a divided West.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Would you have warned him, people who don't tell him what he wants to hear or displease him seem to end up falling out of windows

Which is exactly the point Barney was making, interestingly he also pointed out there were plenty of people in America who were delighted we'd made ourselves and the EU weaker too

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Very disturbing finding, albeit not unexpected:

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

Without investment in research funding, all that flows from this is in peril.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Don'tcha know we don't like experts anymore, besides which where even is Oxbridge :erm:

Plus for every remoaner scare story there's a brexit dividend that's completely ignored, thanks to our South Korean trade deal pork sales could be worth as much as £200k per year

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

We can rejoin the Horizon science programme and get some of this money back *if* we and the EU can come to a deal on Northern Ireland. This may necessitate Sunak squaring up to the ERG.

Let's hope he steps up.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It was reported on the BBC earlier that Boris Johnson was in favour of Ukraine joining the EU.

If he is so against the EU, why would he be in favour of Ukraine joining it?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

It is a little bizarre. At this rate, he'll be advocating for the UK to rejoin and adopt the Euro before we can say Partygate!

BTW I think your spell checker has mangled the spelling of Ukraine.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Thanks, it's now been corrected :)

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Interesting that politicians are lagging voters. I don't blame them for being cautious though!
https://www.ft.com/content/0d195d46-...f-c33889bb2cc0

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Hugh agrees with reality, but disagrees with Sephiroth - "And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?"

Unless, of course, Sephiroth can provide evidence* to back up his assertion that

such as statistics showing that London will be "majority non-white in the near future" and policy papers/plans that state the Met are "gearing up" for this…

nb - non-evidence based opinion pieces from the Telegraph/Spectator/Farage don’t count…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I see the goalposts have moved from London being "majority non-white" to "minority White British"… ;)

There is nothing in the Telegraph article to support your assertion

Meanwhile, back in reality…

https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/e...on-projections

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1676132061

"Other White" is European/Australian/NZ/American/Canadian/etc…

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The only "cultural clashes" happening are those from the fascist right, terrorising asylum seekers and burning police vehicles:

Far-right protesters clash with police at Merseyside hotel housing asylum seekers

A direct result of the toxic Tory policy towards asylum seekers.

"as you sow, so shall you reap"

---------- Post added at 17:28 ---------- Previous post was at 17:26 ----------

Why do you have a problem with a multi-cultural London?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

:rolleyes: You do realise that not everything in the country is the result of a "Tory" policy.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Evidence of "no go areas" in East London, please?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Correct, but you'll get the usual " but I no better" from him.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Leicester: Hindus v Muslims

Good question/point.


@Seph I partially lived in the Mile End (East London) for 5-6 years. The cockneys are integrated with the muslims that you could not tell them apart (except clothes/beard shape -if different) -they are all cockneys. I could not see any conflict. I was living near the station, was I in the wrong neighbourhood?

I am not Dulux brilliant white, but European white (lol)

South Africa has the full range of white colours: British white, French white Dutch white ...., and yes, they still have coloured (not black) people .... A friend of mine had no colour, he was mixed race Canadian-Malay, transparent colour?

What's the skin colour has to do with anything?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

That’s a "none", then…

Unless you mean the half a dozen assholes in 2013-14 who were arrested and jailed…

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musl...ents_in_London

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I think you’re confusing that with the M&M store

https://youtu.be/9GrH_PRKsf4

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Very apposite..

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

No, but this is

---------- Post added at 23:51 ---------- Previous post was at 23:47 ----------

But I am no better :D Don't agree with gambling ;)

---------- Post added at 23:54 ---------- Previous post was at 23:51 ----------

Seph was alluding to those between "Whites" and "Non-whites" i.e. a "Rivers of Blood" analog

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

No because it was a steaming pile of bs, a few ********s with stickers, no more than that

Interestingly the woman with the "dog poo through the door" did exist, I wrongly assumed he'd made her up

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Plenty of “no go” areas in London, most major cities and towns. Not all down to immigration though.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Name one

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

What does "adopting British culture" mean, exactly?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I agree with Sephiroth - there will never be integration with other cultures whilst there is a vociferous minority running about screaming about being oppressed and disadvantaged, putting forward flaky culture-war arguments about how badly they are treated and always being picked upon, and that everyone in the country should conform to their religious views - but that's enough about Farage and Seph... :)

"Judeo-Christian Brits"?

There goes that "dog whistle’ again…

https://theconversation.com/why-jude...ar-right-85922

https://newhumanist.org.uk/articles/...-actually-mean

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

The 2023 Tories have finally, just about, got there:

Attachment 30371

Final task, change the name to complete the job.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I don't think I'm "thick" as you put it. The question I ask is the essential one here as it sets the context from which the complainant (you) is defining their world view.

You are equating "not adopting British culture" as just doing anything you object to. These people, from a myriad of countries, have their own cultural identities, literature, democracy, sense of humour, sense of history and tolerance, all of which are perfectly possible to be melded into ours. I think what you mean by "British culture" is some artificial Anglo-Saxon construct where "whiteness", being Christian, etc. is the (false) measure of conformity.

Remember that we invaded the lands where the majority of the people you object to come from, we subjugated them, stole their wealth and imposed our "British culture" on them. It is poetic karma that the position is now reversed.

Another thing to remember is the "British culture ... that has been built up over the centuries" is a direct result of waves of immigration, each, in turn, imposing its own cultural identity on the resident population.

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

Did you conveniently forget to include religion, migration, foreign cultural influences etc in your list?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I'm just concerned that working all over London from evening till morning I might get a callout in a no go area and then what, I mean I've only been doing it 15 years without any issue but I need to know where these no go areas are so I can demand danger money for going in them

Head in the sand :rofl: that's a good one coming from someone terrified the muslims are coming to get him based on a sticker on a lamp post because make no mistake that's what the sharia no go zones were, I saw them, they like farage are full of shit

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I’d much rather be woke than jingoistic. You seem to be OD’ing on rivers of boood

Presumably you have the same concerns regarding catholics & protestants ? Or is that OK somehow ?

Re: Britain outside the EU
 

I remember exactly the same kind of language/rhetoric/fearmongering against the Irish Catholics in Glasgow in the 60s - coming over here, getting council houses, taking our jobs/never working and just claiming benefits, with their funny religion and all living in the same areas, etc., etc...