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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
If a deal is done, chances are
a it gets voted down in the house. b it gets vetoed by France Any way we are close now ,we just have virtually the same stumbling blocks we had when all this started. |
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We were supposed to have walked away from this nonsense in June. :rolleyes:
Now the remain supporters are wanting an "implementation" period. Just more delays. |
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but Grimsby docks fish market is teeming with it;) |
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In terns of ceding fishing permission, the UK has done this by selling permits to the highest bidder regardless of nationality. So taking a different stance here would benefit British fishermen. In the short term, wholesalers may take a hit but the restaurant sector in Europe has been hit hard by Covid and any savings will be gratefully received. Depending on location, British fishermen could relocate their bases to the island of Ireland and avoid the 20% tax and thus be more attractive to EU wholesalers. But hopefully, a deal will be struck and it will not come to this. |
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The fishing permit situation is complex, however the EU's regulatory regime did its fair share in making it much more attractive for British fishermen (mostly English as it happens) to sell their quotas. Cod fishing was all but banned for several years and a lot of the quota was consequently sold off by trawler owners who needed to concentrate on making a living there and then. It was bought speculatively by large fishing businesses in other EU states. Not being small owner-operators of individual vessels, these businesses could afford to make the long-term investment and wait for cod stocks to recover, in a way small UK-based operators could not. They are now the ones cashing in on so much of the fish caught within the UK's exclusive economic zone.
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All carefully stage managed theatrics to con the Brexiteers that we're getting a 'great deal'.
The real deal will already gave been done. Pretend the EU want 10 year fishing rights, when really they'd settle for 5, and the Brexiteers want none. Then sell 5 as a marvellous UK 'victory over Johnny Foreigner. Fact is even with a deal we all lose badly for decades. Increased prices on everything, here we come. Enjoy taking back control ! ;) |
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Source? |
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BREAKING: A joint statement from Boris Johnson and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen says "significant differences remain on three critical issues: level playing field, governance and fisheries."
A No Deal Brexit it is then. |
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We will fold before it comes to that. It's all about giving Boris something unpalatable but polished up enough for him to sell.
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Yesterday's leader in the Torygraph was pitched exactly right.
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Although the latest news is that the two sides are returning to negotiations, the opposing forces described in the two paragraphs quoted above, now make agreement unlikely. The EU wants to punish us and in response I say NO FISH FOR FRANCE. |
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The German motor manufacturers are just filling up and are ready to come to rescue the deal as David Davis promised us they would. ;)
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I wonder if they can buy fish from anyone else? |
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Iceland...:D |
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If i don’t like what happens I’ll have to ff’n get on with it and make the best of it. The world will not end. We’re talking about how much more, or how less we may have to pay for a few things. You will accuse me of being simplistic and not understanding, but I understand perfectly. Brexit, Covid, financial crash, dot.com crash........that’s just the last 20years............, yadda yadda whatever, all things pass. |
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As does Sir Julian King Quote:
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We shall see.
France’s demands for all the fish might start scaling back towards something a little more reasonable once they’re on the outside of our waters looking in. To be fair I can’t see Brussels loosening its ideological attachment to the ECJ having a role in dispute resolution though. |
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However, as you’ve brought it up, it’s interesting that you’re willing to throw the entire U.K. fishing sector under the bus, but not 1no. Car plant? I don’t know if Nissan would pull out or not, but then as I say “no deal” would not be the end of negotiations. In regards to intelligence, the U.K. will remain as a member of five eyes, NATO and a whole raft of other partnerships. To suggest we would be disadvantaged is ball cocks and always has been. Leaving the EU will not affect our membership of Interpol. |
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I suspect British fish won't be gracing the menus of too many restaurants in France if there is no deal and French fishermen are protesting about their damaged livelihoods. Whatever happens, this won't be the end of negotiations. We'll be negotiating our relationship with the EU forever. |
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Then you highlight the situation at the Nissan plant as something that would be terrible ( which of course it would be)...........but you don’t seem to be keen on highlighting the issue of the impact on fisheries That’s the point. Quote:
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I picked just two distinct areas to highlight the flaws in your statement, security and Nissan. I have previously highlighted the plight of British fishermen and the increased paperwork and potential delays they face even with a deal. No deal won't won't simply benefit fishermen in the UK and disbeneft French fishermen. Both parties will suffer. |
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Strange it didn't say this on the side of the bus... Maybe we'll become a nation of vegetarians. Some good may come from Brexit after all ;) |
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This would be in addition and virtually overnight. |
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On the plus side, we will control our own destiny and come out on the right side when things have settled down. Had we stayed in the EU, they would have strangled us with their rules which they are still trying to do. |
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Some of the EU rules were genuine beneficial - workers, consumer and environmental protections . A hinderance to the mega wealthy maybe. It's our own Govt. we need protection from. |
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Of course we will. And to your other point, all politicians are a bunch of clowns (with a few exceptions). |
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When did we vote for any of those rules? We opted out of the Social Chapter and the Working Time Directive, but were still forced to adopt it, in a backdoor and underhand manner. They didn't do that in the name of helping UK businesses.:rolleyes: |
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https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/ |
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Fishing rights sorted: https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-ma...tions-12153801
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2) Dec 2019 Quote:
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Yeah just seen that. Bit weird.
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A pity. I wanted to see Macron wriggle in front of the French fishermen.
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Really? Where? Evidence please, not something a nobody has tweeted, or a daily rag has printed, or papers 'leaked' to a news program :p: |
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From your link. How are Council job losses connected to Brexit? West Midlands Ambulance service? Steel works have had problems for decades. Thomas Cook? Vague non-figures such Glasgow City Council predicting 24,000, and 133,000 from fall in foreign direct investment. The 4,320 supposedly possible for Yorkshire from fall in foreign investment is double counting at the very least. Of course the job loss at "My Itchy Dog" in Arundel was purely down to Brexit.:rolleyes: The 100 for the BBC in Berkshire were announced a few weeks after the vote, so the reorganisation and moving of the facilities would've been planned before the vote. Bunch of staggeringly unbelievably biased nonsense figures. |
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This Full Fact article (an independent fact-checking organisation) provides a thoughtful perspective. https://fullfact.org/economy/eu-refe...onomy-and-you/ ---------- Post added at 23:30 ---------- Previous post was at 23:28 ---------- Quote:
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If you want some more information on how a decline in growth impacts jobs, see the FullFact article linked earler. If you want a plain link on an example of job losses, see https://www.cityam.com/big-banks-shi...te-ey-reports/ |
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The accusation was made that EU directives aimed at employees were beneficial to businesses. France had a huge unemployment problem as a result of workers rights, which Macron wanted to get rid of. Link Quote:
Extra workers rights harms businesses and employment. Link Quote:
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Your other discussion on the impact of EU employment law on competitiveness was with Hugh. |
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Very unsatisfactory and far from oven-ready.
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Ironically, there's talk that France's working hours have helped keep the country more productive than the UK and have enabled it to leapfrog the UK in terms of wealth. A more productive country is obviously better for business.
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I don't know why people are making such a big deal of it . . .
. . alleged jobs that will be lost due to Brexit - versus - jobs lost in the 3 years preceding the referendum vote, any idea which is highest? :p: |
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How does that work? |
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https://www.oecd.org/france/oecd-pro...hts-france.pdf Quote:
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As long as "taking back control" includes "taking responsibility"...
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Despite rolling back, some rock solid governance clauses are going to be needed here I think |
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We've promised not to break the law... That's big of us !
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---------- Post added at 17:50 ---------- Previous post was at 17:08 ---------- Useful backgrounder on why the EU does not want a bad deal with the UK. Quote:
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In response to Andrew: I think we know all that - indeed it's all displayed right now in Brussels and last week in London. What that all amounts to is that the EU wants us to remain under their effective control in terms of the economy. You, Andrew, should not be wanting that. Do you?. |
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As of right now, the three sticking points are still 'level playing field', dispute resolution and fishing. All of them have implications for UK sovereignty, which is the whole point of the Brexit project - something the EU somehow still doesn't seem to understand, given that even now there is still no immediate prospect of a breakthrough.
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No deal clearly isn't an option we've genuinely planned for. Hence Boris rushing to Brussels cap in hand.... Who is chasing who? We've miscalculated. |
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If the Government really wants a deal then the level playing field is the only dealbreaker I can see there.
Fishing is a case of trading away more allocation for better access, i.e for the city. Fishing is more important to the French and access to the services market is more important for the UK. There is a basis for a deal there. Setting a time limit more than a year might also be a compromise especially if it punts the issue past the French Presidental Elections - the French have domestic politics to consider as well after all. I just can't see fishing blowing up the entire deal. |
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Well it's looking more and more like no deal is coming. Considering Boris Johnson said that this would be a 'failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible' is his position tenable going forward?
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Just some thoughts 1. Level playing field? It nothing of the sort. It should be called the “you adhere to all our rules and laws...field”. Which is not on, as long as our products and services are of an equal standard how deliver them is down to us and no one else. 2. Fishing, I find the whole fishing question crazy. How can a sovereign nation not be in control of it’s own waters? It's not that France, Spanish, Dutch etc wouldn’t be allowed in, but it must be up to the U.K. to decide how many and how much they can catch. Just as Norway and the EU currently do. Surely this should be acceptable and if not why not. https://ec.europa.eu/fisheries/press...ements-2020_en 3. ECJ. What sovereign nation would allow themselves to be ruled over by a foreign court? Can anyone name one outside of the EU. Surely a system like they use for Canada should be acceptable, and if not why not? https://www.lexology.com/library/det...e-0fc5dac44b80 |
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They used “trade” to set up the EEC, and then try to force political Union. They are now using “trade” again to enforce their political will onto us. ---------- Post added at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ---------- Quote:
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If you make a deal with the Devil to gain power, then he ends up on top. Johnson made such a deal when he jumped into bed with Brexit.
He is now stuck between the evangelical leavers of the European Reform Group and the EU which needs to protect its Single Market. The weak-minded in his party may have honestly believed that the UK holds all the cards. Johnson knows we don't. He also knows we have little to offer the EU apart from concessions, but also knows that no-deal would be hugely damaging to the economy and the Conservative Party. It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall in Brussels. |
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The Conservative Party's parliamentary majority is based almost entirely on the will of the electorate to 'Get Brexit Done' - which clearly encompasses the permanent arrangements between the UK and the EU, and not just the simple act of leaving the bloc. It's desperately fashionable to portray this purely as power politics or party management, but the democratic dimension should not be overlooked or minimised. BoJo must now implement what the electorate mandated him to do.
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It's the poor that will suffer, so no loss to Johnson/Farage/Rees-Mogg there. |
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Is that the same story as this one Andrew? Slightly different heading ;) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55217535 Quote:
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A reminder of what Michael Gove advised us all back in 2016. ;)
When is Jean-Claude Juncker joining UKIP? :D |
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https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-07/...-boris-johnson Peston poses a good question: Quote:
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Er no, invoking North Korea isn’t a good question. AFAIK Peston is sympathetic towards Brexit however the way he paints it here, he sounds like he’s in the so-called “soft Brexit” (remember that?) EFTA camp.
No nation exists in a sovereign vacuum, not even North Korea, because it relies on its coal trade with China and that is what ultimately keeps Kim on a leash (just not America’s leash, which is most of the problem as far as the West is concerned). However there is a common sense basic understanding of national sovereignty that is not undermined by a State’s free choice to sign a treaty with another. There are also the sorts of treaties that link fundamentally unconnected considerations - such as, for example, access to fishing waters and general agreement on trade tariffs - in a way that seriously limits a state’s agency and the prospect of future renegotiation. The EU is itself a spider’s web of precisely these sorts of treaties, and its negotiating aim throughout has been to keep the UK as closely tied to as much of it as possible. After 2 rapid general elections the Tory party finally worked out that delivering Brexit meant decoupling the UK from any EU treaty that would be more onerous to us than anything Canada might have agreed to. It is highly unlikely that anything in the Canada-EU trade agreement is going to have any significant impact on Canada’s ability to manage its domestic regulatory regime as it sees fit. That’s something the EU isn’t prepared to tolerate in the UK’s case and that’s why questions of sovereignty are still front and centre at such a late stage. |
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For clarification - btw, the Canada deal took 8 years to negotiate, and still isn’t signed off by all the member states...
What is a 'Canada-style' trade deal? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45633592 Quote:
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I consider it perfectly reasonable for any third party, UK registered or EU registered, to have access to the UK courts in respect of alleged treaty breaches by the UK.
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---------- Post added at 13:55 ---------- Previous post was at 13:40 ---------- Good news! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55229681 Quote:
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