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nomadking 16-07-2020 18:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043674)
I did wonder who’d be first in to bat for the Government but it was predictable really. Nomadking to the... flounder?

With exponential growth rate of the virus, I’m sure the resources of the fifth (are we still fifth) richest economy in the world could have coped with it similarly to extending it for a week at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and considerable NHS resource.

It's not a matter of "batting for the government", it's pointing out the FACTS(strange concept it would seem) about the reports. Have I posted or quoted anything that if FACTUALLY incorrect?

Eg the claim was made that the government were advised to start lockdown a week earlier. When you actually look at the FACTS, they were merely advised on the 16th or 18th to do so "as soon as possible". It was announced on the 23rd. So possibly told on the Wednesday, take a few days to consider, decide, and plan, and it was announced on the following Monday(weekend getting in the way?).

It is FACT, that both Germany and South Korea had shortages of testing kits and PPE.

It is FACT, that even the WHO didn't initially recommend the general wearing of face masks.

5th May
Quote:

Sir Patrick Vallance said: “When you look at everything that happened, maybe days either way would have made a difference."
But he rejected the idea that ministers should have brought in the restrictions at the start of March.
He told MPs: “I think it’s difficult to look back and say that three weeks [earlier] was an obvious point to do it. I don’t think that was clear. I don't think that is clear now.
...
But he played down the importance of face coverings, despite Boris Johnson claiming they could play a role in disease prevention and in giving people confidence when the lockdown is eased.
So just "maybe", not definitely.

20th March
Quote:

Measures to close entertainment, hospitality and indoor leisure premises across the country to take place from the end of trading hours today (Friday 20 March) to limit spread of coronavirus 
New measures will further limit people’s sustained social contact as we tackle the spread of coronavirus, guided by scientific evidence
Public urged to stay at home and limit all but essential travel - people who can work from home should do so


16h March
Quote:

So, second, now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel.
We need people to start working from home where they possibly can. And you should avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues.
...
So third, in a few days’ time – by this coming weekend – it will be necessary to go further and to ensure that those with the most serious health conditions are largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks.
And again the reason for doing this in the next few days, rather than earlier or later, is that this is going to be very disruptive for people who have such conditions, and difficult for them, but, I believe, it’s now necessary.
Other measures and advice were in place BEFORE full lockdown announced on the 23rd. Those other measures and advice should've limited the spread anyway. "Social distancing" was already in place. It's not as if nothing happened before the 23rd. That is FACT.

---------- Post added at 18:40 ---------- Previous post was at 18:34 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36043676)
WTAF?

Is this in line with you not condemning the Russian bounties on our troops in Afghanistan - was that because the Taliban were probably going to try and kill them anyway*? ::rolleyes:

*in line with your, for lack of a better word, logic in your post.

As was just said on a TV news report, IF they had gotten hold of anything, it would've been something in, or soon to be in, the public domain. If there was full collaboration, it would've been pointless trying
Link

Quote:

And they are also challenging them over targeting something that the general public recognises as being highly sensitive - coronavirus vaccine research - rather than simply some company or government department's information.
However, on another level we should not be too surprised by the claim.
Understanding vaccine research and other details about the pandemic has become a top target for intelligence agencies around the world and many others, including Western spies, are likely to be active in this space.
...
But one cyber-security expert said the Russians were unlikely to be the only ones involved in such a campaign.
"They have lots of people, we have lots of people, the Americans have even more people, as do the Chinese," commented Prof Ross Anderson from the University of Cambridge's Computer Laboratory.
"They are all trying to steal this kind of stuff all the time."
How much of the alleged attacks are just the SAME sort that the rest of us, get all the time.


Where was the actual evidence of bounties? My issue, as explained at the time, was that it was hypocritical of those making the accusations.

jfman 16-07-2020 18:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Nomadking it's your shall we say, selective, use of facts and the opinions you offer around them. You frame assumptions around them always in favour of the Government.

Indeed, in 6080 posts I'm struggling to think of a time you've ever offered an opinion against them.

ianch99 16-07-2020 19:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043683)
Nomadking it's your shall we say, selective, use of facts and the opinions you offer around them. You frame assumptions around them always in favour of the Government.

Indeed, in 6080 posts I'm struggling to think of a time you've ever offered an opinion against them.

To be fair that is the normal around here. There are few notable exceptions to this ..

nomadking 16-07-2020 19:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043683)
Nomadking it's your shall we say, selective, use of facts and the opinions you offer around them. You frame assumptions around them always in favour of the Government.

Indeed, in 6080 posts I'm struggling to think of a time you've ever offered an opinion against them.

Selective? I often have to point out the FULL FACTS contained within other peoples links. How could I possibly do that by being more selective? It's usually a case of reading beyond the headline.

jfman 16-07-2020 19:18

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36043690)
Selective? I often have to point out the FULL FACTS contained within other peoples links.

So a lockdown could simply be implemented overnight?

This is not a fact. It’s your selective opinion. Indeed, it was announced and implemented, literally overnight. At 8.30pm Monday to stay at home on Tuesday.

What you offer is tedious nonsense copied and pasted, devoid of analysis to the extent where as long as we aren’t the worst performer, under any basis, of any policy, you’d cite the worst example.

I aspire to more than second last.

1andrew1 16-07-2020 19:48

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36043675)
Surely that alleged spying is a form of seeking collaboration. They were seeking information, which with collaboration would theoretically occur anyway.

I'm assuming that comment is being made firmly tongue in cheek. :D:D:D

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:39 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36043681)
Eg the claim was made that the government were advised to start lockdown a week earlier. When you actually look at the FACTS, they were merely advised on the 16th or 18th to do so "as soon as possible". It was announced on the 23rd. So possibly told on the Wednesday, take a few days to consider, decide, and plan, and it was announced on the following Monday(weekend getting in the way?).

I'm afraid Coronavirus doesn't take holidays. "take a few days to consider" "weekend getting in the way" are poor excuses. They should have and could have moved far quicker.

Hugh 16-07-2020 19:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36043692)
I'm assuming that comment is being made firmly tongue in cheek. :D:D:D

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:39 ----------


I'm afraid Coronavirus doesn't take holidays. "take a few days to consider" "weekend getting in the way" are poor excuses. They should have and could have moved far quicker.

If only they had had senior Government advisors attending the meetings, who could have escalated the urgency to those in charge...

Sephiroth 16-07-2020 19:59

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman
Nomadking it's your shall we say, selective, use of facts and the opinions you offer around them. You frame assumptions around them always in favour of the Government.

Indeed, in 6080 posts I'm struggling to think of a time you've ever offered an opinion against them.
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36043687)
To be fair that is the normal around here. There are few notable exceptions to this ..

... and fanatically so.

jfman 16-07-2020 20:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Yes Seph, I agree I am fanatically exceptional. :D

RichardCoulter 16-07-2020 22:53

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043691)
So a lockdown could simply be implemented overnight?

This is not a fact. It’s your selective opinion. Indeed, it was announced and implemented, literally overnight. At 8.30pm Monday to stay at home on Tuesday.

What you offer is tedious nonsense copied and pasted, devoid of analysis to the extent where as long as we aren’t the worst performer, under any basis, of any policy, you’d cite the worst example.

I aspire to more than second last.

I doubt that many read it any more tbh. The tediousness even extends to the layout.

jfman 16-07-2020 22:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36043714)
I doubt that many read it any more tbh. The tediousness even extends to the layout.

Indeed.

I cannot comprehend why anyone would put themselves out there to be demonstrably wrong on so many occasions. This is neither luck, nor chance. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. This is wilful disinformation and dishonestly of the most absurd degree.

Sephiroth 16-07-2020 23:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043699)
Yes Seph, I agree I am fanatically exceptional. :D

I must take exception to that remark.

1andrew1 17-07-2020 11:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Patients who recovered from CV-19 counted as dead in UK stats?
Quote:

An urgent review has been ordered into how daily coronavirus death figures are calculated after it was claimed the current method did not account for people recovering from COVID-19.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock has asked for the examination of Public Health England's (PHE) data - said by researchers to include a "statistical anomaly" by which "no one can ever recover from COVID-19 in England".
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-data-12030392

Poor show from the Trump administration on Coronavirus again.
Quote:

Trump press secretary says 'science should not stand in the way' of schools reopening
The White House press secretary has revived Donald Trump's calls for schools to reopen, saying "the science should not stand in the way of this".
Echoing the president's push for pupils to return to classrooms, Kayleigh McEnany said "we don't think children should be locked up at home, with devastating consequences".
"You know, the president has said unmistakably that he wants schools to open," said Ms McEnany...
The fresh effort to send children back to classrooms comes despite a new poll showing most Americans do not think it is safe.
https://news.sky.com/story/trump-pre...ening-12030212[

downquark1 17-07-2020 11:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
This is out of context if you listen to the full statement. She was arguing the science doesn't stand in the way.

nomadking 17-07-2020 11:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043691)
So a lockdown could simply be implemented overnight?

This is not a fact. It’s your selective opinion. Indeed, it was announced and implemented, literally overnight. At 8.30pm Monday to stay at home on Tuesday.

What you offer is tedious nonsense copied and pasted, devoid of analysis to the extent where as long as we aren’t the worst performer, under any basis, of any policy, you’d cite the worst example.

I aspire to more than second last.

:confused: Which Monday and Tuesday are you talking about? The advice to lockdown "as soon as possible" was given on the 16th or 18th March. The lockdown was announced on the 23rd. Other measures were already in place. Not sure why I should be criticised for posting quotes of the TRUTH of what was or wasn't said.

1andrew1 17-07-2020 11:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36043757)
This is out of context if you listen to the full statement. She was arguing the science doesn't stand in the way.

I've got some sympathy for people mis-speaking in live situations but I don't think you can say it's safe in all states for the schools to re-open although it's very desirable and may need alternative approaches eg school split into separate shifts.

denphone 17-07-2020 11:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Larger gatherings allowed from October in PM press briefing.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-wave-12030417

Quote:

Further openings announced

Anyone can use public transport from now, the PM says.

From 1 August, updates about going to work will be announced. Employers will be given more discretion, which could mean working from home or could mean working from the work place after it is made COVID secure.

Most remaining leisure settings, bowling, skating rinks, casinos and beauticians can resume from 1 August.

Night clubs and soft play areas need to be kept closed.

Wedding receptions for up to 30 people will be allowed.

Oudoor performances can also begin.

From October, large concerts will be allowed.

More key points.

Quote:

Employers to get discretion on how staff can work safely

PM says more people will be encouraged to use public transport

NHS to get £3m more for potential second wave

Stadia and conferences may reopen from October

Local authorities to get new powers to shut premises and cancel events

Central government to get powers to prevent people leaving or entering areas during local lockdowns

downquark1 17-07-2020 11:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36043762)
I've got some sympathy for people mis-speaking in live situations but I don't think you can say it's safe in all states for the schools to re-open although it's very desirable and may need alternative approaches eg school split into separate shifts.

If you want to dispute that fine, but that is a different claim that the science should obey Trump.

jfman 17-07-2020 11:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36043758)
:confused: Which Monday and Tuesday are you talking about? The advice to lockdown "as soon as possible" was given on the 16th or 18th March. The lockdown was announced on the 23rd. Other measures were already in place. Not sure why I should be criticised for posting quotes of the TRUTH of what was or wasn't said.

Posting TRUTH in capital letters doesn’t elevate your opinion from being just that. Opinion. An opinion that always, without fail, sways in favour of one end of the political spectrum.

Maggy 17-07-2020 12:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
What are you all arguing about?Is it adding anything to this thread?Apart from confusion.

1andrew1 17-07-2020 13:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36043764)
If you want to dispute that fine, but that is a different claim that the science should obey Trump.

I don't think I made that paritcular claim. ;)

Paul 17-07-2020 16:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36043740)
Patients who recovered from CV-19 counted as dead in UK stats?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-data-12030392

Just to quote from this ;
Quote:

"Essentially, there is no way to recover, statistically.
So, if I tested positive for COVID-19 today and then I got hit by a bus tomorrow, then COVID-19 would be listed as my cause of death."
Quote:

A government source confirmed that PHE's current method of calculation means if a person was previously diagnosed with COVID-19 but subsequently died of unrelated causes, their death would still be counted as part of PHE's daily coronavirus death tally.

downquark1 17-07-2020 16:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
To be a pendant a moment this isn't a statistical anomaly, it is a methodological deficiency.

That said the idea of separating what deaths are caused by covid and what are caused by other factors is often quite difficult (in cases not clear cut as getting hit by a bus).

However when everyone uses different methodologies it becomes incredibly difficult to make meaningful comparisons even if some are more sophisticated than others.

However this methodology evidently becomes less accurate the longer the pandemic goes on.

Paul 17-07-2020 16:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
The latest changes in England ;

* From 25 July indoor gyms, pools and other sports facilities can reopen

* On 1 August the government will update its advice on going to work, asking employers to make decisions about how and where their staff can work safely
* From the same date, most remaining leisure settings, including bowling, skating rinks, casinos and all close contact services, such as beauticians, will be allowed to reopen
* Live indoor theatre and concerts will be able to resume with socially distanced audiences
* Wedding receptions for up to 30 people will also be allowed from next month

* From September, schools, nurseries and colleges will be open for all children and young people on a full-time basis, while universities are also working to reopen as fully as possible

* From October, the government intends to allow audiences to return to stadiums, while conferences and other business events can recommence, subject to the outcome of pilots

OLD BOY 17-07-2020 20:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043663)
Interesting evidence from our world leading, expert, Chief Scientific Adviser at the Parliamentary Select Committee today.

SAGE advised to lockdown a week before lockdown and he says that we will find we didn’t take the “right decisions at the right time”.

So if the scientists make decisions and idle politicians “follow the science” by bowing to their expertise, where did it go wrong?

The good news is he also says it’s probable we have years of this too. Just as well I quite like working from home.

We will see what the government was advised, and when, after the report is published.

I note that you have conceded that we will have more years of this while we continue to attempt to slow the virus down. That is precisely why I have been advocating the isolation of the 'at risk' groups and freeing up the rest of the population to go about their business as usual. That will get the whole thing out of the way in the UK with the minimum death rate, since most healthy people will survive this unscathed.

The alternative is a continuing hit to the economy, with public tolerence to these restrictions diminishing all the time.

---------- Post added at 20:18 ---------- Previous post was at 20:16 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043674)
I did wonder who’d be first in to bat for the Government but it was predictable really. Nomadking to the... flounder?

With exponential growth rate of the virus, I’m sure the resources of the fifth (are we still fifth) richest economy in the world could have coped with it similarly to extending it for a week at the cost of tens of thousands of lives and considerable NHS resource.

We can all see that you criticise the government at every turn, so we know which side you are batting for.

---------- Post added at 20:20 ---------- Previous post was at 20:18 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043683)
Nomadking it's your shall we say, selective, use of facts and the opinions you offer around them. You frame assumptions around them always in favour of the Government.

Indeed, in 6080 posts I'm struggling to think of a time you've ever offered an opinion against them.

And how often have you supported the government, jfman? The words 'glass houses' and 'stones' come to mind!

---------- Post added at 20:23 ---------- Previous post was at 20:20 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 36043687)
To be fair that is the normal around here. There are few notable exceptions to this ..

There are plenty of posts supporting your point of view, mate. We all have to accept that we are debating with people who have a wide range of opinions. You mustn't get so upset if someone disagrees with you.

jfman 17-07-2020 21:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36043861)
We will see what the government was advised, and when, after the report is published.

I note that you have conceded that we will have more years of this while we continue to attempt to slow the virus down.

I've accepted that flawed UK Government policy means we have years of this, yes. However other countries will not. We will have years of economic turmoil to go with it.

Quote:

That is precisely why I have been advocating the isolation of the 'at risk' groups and freeing up the rest of the population to go about their business as usual. That will get the whole thing out of the way in the UK with the minimum death rate, since most healthy people will survive this unscathed.

The alternative is a continuing hit to the economy, with public tolerence to these restrictions diminishing all the time.
The economy simply will not 'bounce back' as consumer spending remains diminished, neither will we 'get the virus out the way' - our own esteemed Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer are indicating we now face years of this, with greater and lesser restrictions on activity reacting to it.

Quote:

We can all see that you criticise the government at every turn, so we know which side you are batting for.
And we know where you stand - tens of thousands of lives lost are an acceptable price to pay in the pursuit of economic growth.

I hate to be the one to break it to you but the flawed policy is simply entrenching the recession and reducing the chances of ever returning to 'normal'.

---------- Post added at 21:16 ---------- Previous post was at 20:24 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36043861)
And how often have you supported the government, jfman? The words 'glass houses' and 'stones' come to mind!

I supported the lockdown and the furlough scheme. So once again your evidence base is weak.

Pierre 18-07-2020 09:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by downquark1 (Post 36043812)
To be a pendant a moment this isn't a statistical anomaly, it is a methodological deficiency.

That said the idea of separating what deaths are caused by covid and what are caused by other factors is often quite difficult (in cases not clear cut as getting hit by a bus).

However when everyone uses different methodologies it becomes incredibly difficult to make meaningful comparisons even if some are more sophisticated than others.

However this methodology evidently becomes less accurate the longer the pandemic goes on.

As was mentioned at the start, we’ll only have some kind of idea of the a death rate when comparing the numbers for 2020 against all the previous years ( and even that will not be accurate). And then when we compare that figure against all the other nations of the world And their figures will We have any kind of idea how we did.

jfman 18-07-2020 09:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36043888)
As was mentioned at the start, we’ll only have some kind of idea of the a death rate when comparing the numbers for 2020 against all the previous years ( and even that will not be accurate). And then when we compare that figure against all the other nations of the world And their figures will We have any kind of idea how we did.

If the last hope for the figures is truly “they would all have died in 2020” anyway then I suspect, as with much of your insight into the virus, you’ll end up badly disappointed.

Still, at least Boris can blame the second wave on employers and local governments now.

Sephiroth 18-07-2020 09:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Looking at all this from a logical perspective:

1. Northern EU countries and the UK are Much the same in terms of public health and medical facilities.

2. The pandemic hit us all more or less equally.

3. The lower death rates occurred where lock down measures were introduced earliest.

4. Ergo, the excess deaths measure sorts it all out.

Simples.



downquark1 18-07-2020 10:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
While the excess death metric is probably the best to use, it suffers from overestimation bias because there may be additional deaths caused by the lockdown measures that are unrelated to Covid infection. Such as death because conventional medical proceedure were delayed.

Or even conversely underestimation because people have been doing less dangerous things.

heero_yuy 18-07-2020 11:22

Re: Coronavirus
 
Seems if someone had actually tested positive for COVID 19 but was subsequently run over by a bus that the death was falsely placed on the virus list.

Figures are currently being re-assessed.

OLD BOY 18-07-2020 11:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043866)
I've accepted that flawed UK Government policy means we have years of this, yes. However other countries will not. We will have years of economic turmoil to go with it.


How on earth do you make that out? How has our government's policy put us in a worse position than any other country? I have said consistently that it is far too early to make such judgements now. When all this is over, we will be able to compare, but not now. Countries that were patting themselves on the back a few weeks ago are finding that they are having to cope now with a second wave. Then there will be a third, and a fourth until this virus is done with us. I don't know why you have this dreamy idea that by locking down earlier we could have saved more lives. Each lockdown that ends simply exposes everyone once again to this highly infectious virus.

---------- Post added at 11:35 ---------- Previous post was at 11:28 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043866)


And we know where you stand - tens of thousands of lives lost are an acceptable price to pay in the pursuit of economic growth.

Where did I say that? I said protect the vulnerable groups and let the virus run through the healthy population. That minimises the number of deaths and is a far more sustainable position to take.

You have no real solution that is capable of working. You cannot keep people locked up forever, and any government that tries to do so is doomed to failure.

And the virus would still hit us when the years of lockdown finally ended.

As for a vaccine, I wouldn't hold my breath. When have we ever concocted a vaccine capable of defeating one of the coronavirus infections? You cannot sensibly pin all your hopes on finding a vaccine.

Carth 18-07-2020 11:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
During the pandemic of 1918/19, over 50 million people died worldwide and a quarter of the British population were affected. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain alone.

That was 100 years ago, no hospitals with todays modern path labs and equipment, no computers spitting out instant spread sheets and graphs, no clever screening and testing available. How do we know those figures are anywhere near accurate?

Seems to me that given the technology we have now, it's all still guesswork and pigeonholing stuff into little boxes :D

jfman 18-07-2020 13:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36043903)
How on earth do you make that out? How has our government's policy put us in a worse position than any other country? I have said consistently that it is far too early to make such judgements now. When all this is over, we will be able to compare, but not now.

Where’s your entrepreneurial spirit Old Boy? It’s not ‘too hard’ to make interim assessments based on the evidence available. I suspect the problem is the evidence at present doesn’t suit your narrative.

Quote:

Countries that were patting themselves on the back a few weeks ago are finding that they are having to cope now with a second wave. Then there will be a third, and a fourth until this virus is done with us. I don't know why you have this dreamy idea that by locking down earlier we could have saved more lives. Each lockdown that ends simply exposes everyone once again to this highly infectious virus.
It’s not my dreamy idea - it’s the ‘experts’ at Sage. You’re also ignoring that some countries are having success - and it’s the countries that are not that are ultimately undermining efforts around the world to combat the virus.

Quote:

Where did I say that? I said protect the vulnerable groups and let the virus run through the healthy population. That minimises the number of deaths and is a far more sustainable position to take.

You have no real solution that is capable of working. You cannot keep people locked up forever, and any government that tries to do so is doomed to failure.

And the virus would still hit us when the years of lockdown finally ended.

As for a vaccine, I wouldn't hold my breath. When have we ever concocted a vaccine capable of defeating one of the coronavirus infections? You cannot sensibly pin all your hopes on finding a vaccine.
You cannot sensibly say that running the virus through the population is a credible solution. There is no black and white between who will survive and will not, allowing everyone else to safely go about their day.

Not finding a vaccine again I refer to your lack of ‘entrepreneurial spirit’. We’ve the greatest minds in the world on this, on what may be the single biggest human endeavour since the moon landings.

OLD BOY 18-07-2020 18:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043913)
Where’s your entrepreneurial spirit Old Boy? It’s not ‘too hard’ to make interim assessments based on the evidence available. I suspect the problem is the evidence at present doesn’t suit your narrative.

It’s not my dreamy idea - it’s the ‘experts’ at Sage. You’re also ignoring that some countries are having success - and it’s the countries that are not that are ultimately undermining efforts around the world to combat the virus.

You cannot sensibly say that running the virus through the population is a credible solution. There is no black and white between who will survive and will not, allowing everyone else to safely go about their day.

Not finding a vaccine again I refer to your lack of ‘entrepreneurial spirit’. We’ve the greatest minds in the world on this, on what may be the single biggest human endeavour since the moon landings.

1. No, it's not hard to make an interim assessment, but plainly, that would be wildly inaccurate. Lockdowns slow the virus, but don't eliminate it. Further waves will push the numbers up throughout the world, and that's one of the reasons why it is too early to make proper judgements on which countries have got it right. I would also remind you that it is ridiculous to compare our numbers with other countries, since each of them set such different criteria as to what constitutes a covid death. The fact that other countries only count hospital deaths (not deaths in the community or in care homes) is all the evidence you need that comparisons at this stage are pretty pointless.

2. I agree that some countries are having some initial success. This time next year, I very much suspect the situation will look a lot different. I don't care where you got the dreamy idea from, but it's wrong. There are disagreements within Sage as to how to best deal with this.

3. Allowing the virus to run through the healthy population is exactly what needs to happen. It is the only practical way, and it is nature's way. But by protecting 'at risk' groups, we keep deaths to the minimum.

4. What I said was you cannot pin all your hopes on a vaccine. You have no plan B, so if you were in charge, you would be locking everyone up forever - until the riots started, that is.

Maggy 18-07-2020 20:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53443724

Quote:

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has called for an urgent review into how coronavirus deaths have been recorded in England.

It follows confirmation from Public Health England that reported deaths may have included people who tested positive months before they died.

Other UK nations only include those who die within 28 days of a positive test.

Officials say the publication of daily death figures will be paused while the issue was "resolved".

A note on the government's website read: "Currently the daily deaths measure counts all people who have tested positive for coronavirus and since died, with no cut-off between time of testing and date of death.

"There have been claims that the lack of cut-off may distort the current daily deaths number."

Hom3r 18-07-2020 20:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
I want to know when:

A) I can hug my mum in a nursing home (if she isn't home by then)?


B) I can hug my sister, nephew and niece, we need it badly?

jfman 18-07-2020 23:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36043930)
1. No, it's not hard to make an interim assessment, but plainly, that would be wildly inaccurate. Lockdowns slow the virus, but don't eliminate it. Further waves will push the numbers up throughout the world, and that's one of the reasons why it is too early to make proper judgements on which countries have got it right. I would also remind you that it is ridiculous to compare our numbers with other countries, since each of them set such different criteria as to what constitutes a covid death. The fact that other countries only count hospital deaths (not deaths in the community or in care homes) is all the evidence you need that comparisons at this stage are pretty pointless.

And once again I'd say they are not pointless - we can already make excess deaths comparisons as well as the official total. Again, I remind you, that you are simply trying to avoid an uncomfortable reality. However, I'm happy to revisit this in a couple of years time when I'm certain I'll be proven correct and those who claimed 'mild flu', 'it'll go away itself and the summer' and now 'it's too early to tell' will be proven wrong.

I'm uncertain why you persist in being proven wrong, when in actual fact the economy benefits from everyone accepting the reality than trying to hide from it.

Quote:

2. I agree that some countries are having some initial success. This time next year, I very much suspect the situation will look a lot different. I don't care where you got the dreamy idea from, but it's wrong. There are disagreements within Sage as to how to best deal with this.
If I am certain of anything it's that your suspicions about coronavirus are politically fuelled.

Quote:

3. Allowing the virus to run through the healthy population is exactly what needs to happen. It is the only practical way, and it is nature's way. But by protecting 'at risk' groups, we keep deaths to the minimum.
Needs to happen for what/who?

Quote:

4. What I said was you cannot pin all your hopes on a vaccine. You have no plan B, so if you were in charge, you would be locking everyone up forever - until the riots started, that is.
Plan A should have been aiming to eradicate the virus. Plan B a vaccine.

At no stage have I ever suggested locking everyone up forever. As ever, Old Boy, you present the straw man argument.

You continue to be under the flawed logic that no lockdown = economy working as normal. 100% wrong. While I advocated a longer, stronger lockdown, protecting incomes and businesses along the way to get everyone out the other side in much the same position as before.

You however present the incoherent economics of austerity to save us. People lost their jobs. People spend less. More people lose their jobs. More people spend less. Cycle continues. For years.

It's not my fault your ideology makes you incapable of bold thinking, of 'entrepreneurial spirit' I think you call it.

When all is said and done a coherent strategy of eradicating the virus through isolating everyone as much as possible, for as long as possible, while protecting incomes will be proven to be better for public health and the economy.

heero_yuy 19-07-2020 16:14

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Quote from The Sun: Face masks could be used by terrorists to hide their identity in order to launch attacks on cabinet ministers or high profile targets, an SAS-trained security expert has warned.

CCTV and facial recognition cameras will not be able to identify criminals and terrorists because they can blend into the crowd and hide their faces with a mask, the government was told today.
A phrase involving a fictional detective comes to mind. :rolleyes:

A few weeks ago I saw a hoodie with long black hair, in black with a black mask on in Lidl and all you could see was the eyes. Might as well have been a burka.

The perfect disguise and all legal.

Carth 19-07-2020 21:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
How ironic can it get?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...-west-53465160

Coronavirus: Potential Covid-19 cluster in Lanarkshire

Quote:

A potential cluster of Covid-19 cases is being investigated in North Lanarkshire, health officials have confirmed.

BBC Scotland understands the outbreak involves a call centre which carries out coronavirus contact tracing for the NHS.

One employee said they believed at least seven colleagues had tested positive.

Paul 19-07-2020 22:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Well, you would think they shouldnt have too much trouble tracing themselves. ;)

jfman 19-07-2020 23:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044033)
Well, you would think they shouldnt have too much trouble tracing themselves. ;)

You over estimate the capability of the private sector, I suspect.

Chris 20-07-2020 11:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Small-scale medical trial suggests directly inhaling a version of the MS drug beta-interferon via a nebuliser dramatically reduces the severity of Covid-19 symptoms, possibly reducing the chances of needing a ventilator by almost 80%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

tweetiepooh 20-07-2020 12:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
There is more to all of this that government response.

Geography - how easy is it to close borders and restrict movement - New Zealand easy; Europe far less so.
Population - how well will the population obey suggestions/rules - Japan easy; UK not so much

It's a novel situation and no matter what any government does it will not be right to some observers who will often not offer viable alternatives.

---
Read a Tweet at weekend suggest that the papers read by older people are more optimistic than those read by the younger.
That said those older people papers tend to be more right so are more likely supportive than the younger set papers but thought it interesting anyway. Seems to echo a more general attitude that many older people just want to get on with things and it's the younger who are more keen on a cautious approach. It's not carelessness by the older though, they do have concerns and are not reckless but many want to hug families and be social again.

Pierre 20-07-2020 13:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
People will do what they want eventually.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...spike-12032433

There hasn't been a spike since lockdown was eased and all the BLM gatherings.

I think steady as we go.

Grassroots football and Karate starts again next week - woohoo

OLD BOY 20-07-2020 14:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36043948)
And once again I'd say they are not pointless - we can already make excess deaths comparisons as well as the official total. Again, I remind you, that you are simply trying to avoid an uncomfortable reality. However, I'm happy to revisit this in a couple of years time when I'm certain I'll be proven correct and those who claimed 'mild flu', 'it'll go away itself and the summer' and now 'it's too early to tell' will be proven wrong.

I'm uncertain why you persist in being proven wrong, when in actual fact the economy benefits from everyone accepting the reality than trying to hide from it.




Plan A should have been aiming to eradicate the virus. Plan B a vaccine.

At no stage have I ever suggested locking everyone up forever. As ever, Old Boy, you present the straw man argument.

You continue to be under the flawed logic that no lockdown = economy working as normal. 100% wrong. While I advocated a longer, stronger lockdown, protecting incomes and businesses along the way to get everyone out the other side in much the same position as before.

You however present the incoherent economics of austerity to save us. People lost their jobs. People spend less. More people lose their jobs. More people spend less. Cycle continues. For years.

It's not my fault your ideology makes you incapable of bold thinking, of 'entrepreneurial spirit' I think you call it.

When all is said and done a coherent strategy of eradicating the virus through isolating everyone as much as possible, for as long as possible, while protecting incomes will be proven to be better for public health and the economy.

Excess deaths is a blunt instrument at best. You forget that people are also dying owing to the fact that they could not get their illnesses diagnosed and treated during the lockdown.

The 'mild flu' jibe - you must be getting desperate now. For most people, they either do not know they've had it or only experience mild symptoms. For those 'at risk' groups and others with an underlying health condition it can, of course, be deadly, and there is a likelihood that continual exposure to infected people can make it worse. I accept that the virus does not seem to go away during the summertime as was first speculated, although as people spend less time confined indoors in crowded areas during the summer, the number of infections may well decline for that reason.

I'm glad that we agree the objective of Plan 'A'. Of course you do realise that the only plan to eradicate the virus in the absence of a vaccine is herd immunity. It seems that the government is going for the half-way house solution at the moment with track and trace and local lockdowns. I suppose that is worth a try, but this will send us all on a merry old dance for years to come.

As far as your comments about a longer, stronger lockdown, do come off it - do you think the public would tolerate that? They were already pretty fed up with it when the government started to ease restrictions. I did not present your favourite 'straw man' argument. I have surely already made clear that however long and strong the lockdown, the virus will just attack us again on the eventual release. It only took one super-spreader to set this all off in the UK, remember that?

Austerity, jfman, is what would happen if we were all in the 'longer, stronger' lockdown you advocate. I'd stop arguing if I were you, your plan is falling apart before your eyes. If you're looking, that is.

---------- Post added at 14:35 ---------- Previous post was at 14:31 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36044072)
People will do what they want eventually.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...spike-12032433

There hasn't been a spike since lockdown was eased and all the BLM gatherings.

I think steady as we go.

Grassroots football and Karate starts again next week - woohoo

I am not really that surprised. The virus is not readily passed on between people outside. It is crowded indoor spaces which are the real worry, hence why the health specialists are concerned about the autumn/winter months.

OLD BOY 21-07-2020 17:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
To those who say the government did not lockdown early enough, or failed to follow scientific advice, this might be an interesting read. This is how I remember it, too, particularly the 'herd immunity' bit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-534338...5Bpost+type%5D

So there you have it. I particularly liked:

Prof Whitty argued that beginning social distancing measures "too early" would risk people becoming tired of them and public compliance waning.

And Sir Patrick began to talk about the concept of herd immunity. Speaking about the coronavirus he said: "It's not possible to stop everybody getting it and it's also actually not desirable because you want some immunity in the population. We need immunity to protect ourselves from this in the future."


Which, of course, is was I've been saying all along.

Mr K 22-07-2020 07:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9630556.html
Quote:

Coronavirus could be ‘here forever’ with constant need for vaccinations, top scientist warns MPs
Virus pathogen may never be eliminated, says Professor Sir John Bell


One of the world’s leading immunologists has warned MPs that Covid-19 could be “here forever”.

Sir John Bell, a distinguished scientist and regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said that the pathogen underpinning the novel virus may never be eliminated.

Giving evidence at a session of the Commons Health and Social Care Committee, Sir John, 68, added that any potential coronavirus vaccine “is unlikely to have a durable effect that’ll last for a very long time”.
"So we’re going to have to have a continual cycle of vaccinations and then more disease, and more vaccinations and more disease.” Sir John told the Committee, chaired by former health secretary and Tory MP Jeremy Hunt.

Sir John, knighted for his services to medicine in 2008, used polio as an example of how difficult it can be to completely suppress a disease.

Look at how much trouble they’ve had in eliminating, for example, polio, that eradication programme has been going on for 15 years and they’re still not there,” he said.

“So this [Covid-19] is going to come and go, and we’re going to get winters where we get a lot of this virus back in action.”
Bit sobering to those pinning their hours on a cure all vaccine or that life will ever get back to 'normal' again.

pip08456 22-07-2020 08:54

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36044286)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9630556.html


Bit sobering to those pinning their hours on a cure all vaccine or that life will ever get back to 'normal' again.

Merely an opinion using an example where the reason for the noneradication is well known. There's also the smallpox vaccine to consider.

Pierre 22-07-2020 09:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36044286)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9630556.html


Bit sobering to those pinning their hours on a cure all vaccine or that life will ever get back to 'normal' again.

we'll learn to live with it, like all the other Coronaviruses

Chris 22-07-2020 10:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36044286)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9630556.html


Bit sobering to those pinning their hours on a cure all vaccine or that life will ever get back to 'normal' again.

Once there’s a vaccine in regular use - even one that needs readministering annually - things will be normal. We’re already vaccinated against a ton of stuff, this is just one more. Covid-19 is a problem because there’s no vaccine, no immunity and therefore it spreads rapidly and overwhelms our health care services. Once its ability to spread freely is dealt with it will be no more troublesome than flu.

joglynne 22-07-2020 10:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
I, and many others, already have a Flu vaccine every year, just part of being able to live a normal life.

If having to have a regular Covid -19 vaccination is what it takes then it will be a small inconvenience that many, hopefully most, will accept as being necessary if they wish to have that semblance of a 'normal life'.

The more that is known about about Covid-19, how to treat it, how to identify it, how to fight it and who needs to be vaccinated, the stronger we will be to keep it from decimating the world. Will we ever eradicate it? No. Can we eventually live with it? I damn well hope so.


For anyone who wants to see a fuller report of Sir John Bells's, and other experts evidence to The Health and Social Care Committee, a cross-party group of MPs, a fuller account of the meeting on 21st July can be seen here ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53488142

pip08456 22-07-2020 10:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Oh please joglynne don't tell me Mr_K was cherry picking from the report. How unusual. Let's face it, until a vaccine is tested and passed no one knows what level of immunity it will give or how long it will last. Until then any opinion is just guesswork.

jonbxx 22-07-2020 11:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36044300)
Once there’s a vaccine in regular use - even one that needs readministering annually - things will be normal. We’re already vaccinated against a ton of stuff, this is just one more. Covid-19 is a problem because there’s no vaccine, no immunity and therefore it spreads rapidly and overwhelms our health care services. Once its ability to spread freely is dealt with it will be no more troublesome than flu.

The immunity thing is interesting in light of a paper preview published in Nature on the 15th July (link warning, very techy!)

In that paper, T-cell responses to different parts of SARS-Cov-2 proteins were tested against the white blood cells of people who were;
  • Previously infected with SARS-Cov-2
  • Previously infected with SARS (SARS-Cov-1)
  • Never infected with either

For the uninitiated, T-cell responses are the immune systems way for killing already infected cells. They also help stimulate the production of antibodies (B-cell response)

Unsurprisingly, people who have had COVID-19 showed a good response to SARS-Cov-2 fragments. So did 100% of people who previously had SARS 17 years ago.

More significant is around 50% of the people who have never seen SARS-Cov-1 or 2 also showed a response to SARS-Cov-2! This suggests, at least in the population tested, that there is some kind of immunity to the current Coronavirus pandemic in naive patients. The follow up needs to be looking at infection rates and outcomes for people who previously showed a response while naive to see if this response translates to real world effects.

tweetiepooh 22-07-2020 11:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Once there is a way to stop the NHS being overloaded then we can get back to normal. I don't see keeping screens around tables and other social distancing remaining. People will want to get back to "crowds" and some businesses need it.
COVID-19, 20, 29 etc will likely become part of the annual disease cycle, some get ill, some very ill, some die, many will just get through it and if like COVID-19 may not really notice it. Until of course VIRUS-xx starts it all off again.

Maggy 22-07-2020 12:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36044315)
Once there is a way to stop the NHS being overloaded then we can get back to normal. I don't see keeping screens around tables and other social distancing remaining. People will want to get back to "crowds" and some businesses need it.
COVID-19, 20, 29 etc will likely become part of the annual disease cycle, some get ill, some very ill, some die, many will just get through it and if like COVID-19 may not really notice it. Until of course VIRUS-xx starts it all off again.

A bit harsh!:(

Carth 22-07-2020 13:18

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36044319)
A bit harsh!:(

Probably so, but 'That's Life' the good, bad, and ugly of it

Mr K 22-07-2020 13:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36044304)
Oh please joglynne don't tell me Mr_K was cherry picking from the report. How unusual. Let's face it, until a vaccine is tested and passed no one knows what level of immunity it will give or how long it will last. Until then any opinion is just guesswork.

No report cherry picking , I just posted a whole article from the Independent from an 'a distinguished scientist and regius professor of medicine at Oxford University'. He was giving evidence to a select committee, he's probably more expert in the area than you or me.

This whole 'it'll be over by Christmas' bull we get from 'expert Boris' we had from politicians a long time ago on another crisis (before my time even !). Boris can't even follow his own advice and proudly shook the hands of covid patients and subsequently others, where did that get him and his colleagues.... He's a Westminster 'super-spreader' and muppet.
And why Christmas ? Why not 18th October, or 3rd February? It's not something they're in control of and they treat us like morons.

Carth 22-07-2020 14:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
To be bluntly honest, in my personal but non expert opinion, I'd have to say possibly 65% of the population are morons ;)

denphone 22-07-2020 14:54

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36044332)
To be bluntly honest, in my personal but non expert opinion, I'd have to say possibly 65% of the population are morons ;)

l hope you did not include some of your favourite forum members in that generalising assumption.;):D

Carth 22-07-2020 15:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36044333)
l hope you did not include some of your favourite forum members in that generalising assumption.;):D

Not at all Den :shocked:

People on here are generally well behaved, articulate and often helpful in many ways. Even the ones I sometimes disagree with are pleasant people but just have a differing opinion on some topics.

that's not to say, however, that if the cap fits, anyone can feel free to wear it :D ;)

Paul 22-07-2020 17:53

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36044333)
l hope you did not include some of your favourite forum members in that generalising assumption.;):D

He was thinking more of twitter users. :D

denphone 22-07-2020 17:57

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044344)
He was thinking more of twitter users. :D

l use Twitter sometimes as l use Facebook sometimes.:D

richard s 22-07-2020 20:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36044347)
l use Twitter sometimes as l use Facebook sometimes.:D


I do not use either as they are probably hacked by the Russians Dhoooo!!!:D

heero_yuy 23-07-2020 09:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
1 Attachment(s)
Remember from Friday this week is is obligatory to wear a face mask when shopping:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1595492547

:D

Attachment 28464

papa smurf 23-07-2020 09:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36044397)
Remember from Friday this week is is obligatory to wear a face mask when shopping:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...4&d=1595492547

:D

Attachment 28464

Covering up perfection seems wrong to me.;)

tweetiepooh 23-07-2020 09:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
My masks are somewhere with Royal Mail, ordered and dispatched in plenty of time but still in transit. Always a bit hard trying new cheese with mask on, maybe cut an eating hole in them!!??

Mick 23-07-2020 17:59

Re: Coronavirus
 
BREAKING: Two more English boroughs have joined Leicester in reaching the highest level on the coronavirus watchlist.

Luton, in Bedfordshire, and Blackburn and Darwen, in Lancashire, have both been designated as an "area of intervention" by Public Health England (PHE).

Lockdowns Imminent.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...pikes-12034861

nomadking 24-07-2020 08:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
What's with all the bellyaching from shopkeepers about enforcing wearing of masks.:confused: I not a smoker, but if I went into a shop with a lit cigarette, they would soon stop me. What is the real difference? Is the difference that with the cigarette, the shop can be penalised for allowing it, but with the mask, the shop can't? Perhaps that has to change.

Mr K 24-07-2020 08:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Free flu vaccine will now be available to over 50's. I've paid for it anyway over the last few years even though I don't qualify, it's a no brainer for £10.

heero_yuy 24-07-2020 09:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Quote from The Sun:
Lockdowns have made little impact on Covid-19 death rates around the world, it’s claimed.

Countries across the world ordered its citizens to stay home and shut up shop in a bid to stop the virulent coronavirus spreading.

But now a study has sensationally claimed the drastic measures did not help reduce the global death toll which is currently more than 625,000.

Experts from the University of Toronto and the University of Texas compared mortality rates and cases in 50 different countries worst hit by the pandemic up until May 1.

They found while imposing lockdown did stop hospitals from being overwhelmed, this did not necessarily prevent high death tolls.

Instead, the researchers concluded, the number of Covid-19 related deaths depended on the health and age of each nation before the pandemic.

Those with above-average obesity rates, such as the UK, were 12 per cent more likely to have significantly higher death rates than those without.

In Britain two thirds of adults and a third of children are overweight.

Studies have previously shown that there is a link between Covid-19 and obesity

Countries with a higher median population age were 10 per cent more likely to have gravely ill patients.

The team also found wealthier nations had high deaths rates because their citizens travelled abroad more than poorer countries.
The full report in the on-line version of The Lancet can be found on this link It's rather pithy.

nomadking 24-07-2020 09:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36044490)
The full report in the on-line version of The Lancet can be found on this link It's rather pithy.

Not quite sure how you can have avoided overwhelming hospitals and not reduced the death toll. If instead lockdowns hadn't happened, and the hospitals had been overwhelmed, surely that must mean more deaths. They weren't dropping dead elsewhere.

OLD BOY 24-07-2020 09:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36044490)
The full report in the on-line version of The Lancet can be found on this link It's rather pithy.

Well, I think Boris has set his mind against any more nationwide lockdowns, so this is a good basis for that decision.

downquark1 24-07-2020 09:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
This is a dumb analysis, if you repeat it after effective treatments have been discovered you will inevitably conclude a lower death rate.

Paul 24-07-2020 16:19

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36044482)
What is the real difference? Is the difference that with the cigarette, the shop can be penalised for allowing it, but with the mask, the shop can't?

The difference is that its always illegal to smoke, but masks can perfectly legally not be worn if you have good reason.

tweetiepooh 24-07-2020 17:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
All reports can make statistics say what the authors want and back it up with figures. Lockdowns may not have saved lives due to CV19 but they certainly helped prevent hospitals being totally overwhelmed and that may save other lives for other causes of admission.
It's also true that populations affect how CV19 progresses in that population and where there is an older, less fit, overweight, multigenerational mix the affect is worse. It is also possible that some parts of the world have a less virulent form of the virus. Population behaviour can also have an effect so countries like Japan where to suggest isolation and certain businesses close (also they wear masks more in other situations e.g flu) leads to isolation and businesses closing. Compare to western countries where even having rules they get ignored or challenged.

nomadking 24-07-2020 18:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044540)
The difference is that its always illegal to smoke, but masks can perfectly legally not be worn if you have good reason.

Still no valid reason not to challenge people. That is what they are complaining about, the challenging people bit. They're not being asked to do a full health assessment.:rolleyes:

1andrew1 24-07-2020 18:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Just need Old Boy to come on board about the lockdown being too late and we'll all be in happy harmony. ;)
Quote:

Boris Johnson has admitted the government did not understand coronavirus during the "first few weeks and months" of the UK outbreak.
The PM told BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg there were "very open questions" about whether the lockdown had started too late.
Mr Johnson also spoke of "lessons to be learned" and said ministers could have done some things "differently".
Labour accused the government of "mishandling" the crisis.
More than 45,000 people in the UK have died after testing positive for coronavirus, government figures show, with almost 300,000 cases confirmed.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525450

OLD BOY 24-07-2020 18:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36044560)
Just need Old Boy to come on board about the lockdown being too late and we'll all be in happy harmony. ;)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525450

The mistake was the total lockdown. Only the vulnerable needed protection.

Anyway, all of this is a case of being wise after the event. The medical guys themselves were advising against an early lockdown - remember that?

Paul 24-07-2020 20:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36044558)
Still no valid reason not to challenge people. That is what they are complaining about, the challenging people bit. They're not being asked to do a full health assessment.:rolleyes:

Feel free to go and stand in shops, and police them, see how that works out for you.

My Daughter works in retail, and will not challange anyone, that isnt what she gets paid for, its the job of the police (or security).

jfman 24-07-2020 20:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36044562)
The mistake was the total lockdown. Only the vulnerable needed protection.

Anyway, all of this is a case of being wise after the event. The medical guys themselves were advising against an early lockdown - remember that?

Yet now they are saying if we'd done it earlier it'd have been shorter, and easier to test, trace and isolate.

Instead we've got the second wave coming and Boris hasn't ruled out a second national lockdown. Indeed, he's already talking it up as a bold, drastic measure, a bit patriotic too like the nuclear deterrent.

Carth 24-07-2020 21:21

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36044584)
Yet now they are saying if we'd done it earlier it'd have been shorter, and easier to test, trace and isolate.

Instead we've got the second wave coming and Boris hasn't ruled out a second national lockdown. Indeed, he's already talking it up as a bold, drastic measure, a bit patriotic too like the nuclear deterrent.

I don't think we had the means to 'test, trace and isolate' at that stage though

denphone 24-07-2020 21:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36044587)
I don't think we had the means to 'test, trace and isolate' at that stage though

l thought it was supposed to be world beating.;)

jfman 24-07-2020 21:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36044587)
I don't think we had the means to 'test, trace and isolate' at that stage though

Indeed I agree, in March it was out of control which is why the emergency brake of a lockdown was needed. With exponential growth even a lockdown a week earlier, theoretically, would leave you chasing for 30% of the live cases give or take using a test, trace, isolate system at the end of an equal length lockdown.

If the virus goes out of control again then a second lockdown remains inevitable. Restrictions are coming back around the world, in US states and in Europe, where flare ups aren't brought under control by test, trace, isolate.

Carth 24-07-2020 21:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Certainly not good with it flaring up in some areas of the UK, but on the positive side of that (if there is a positive side), people where it hasn't flared up may heed the warnings and follow procedures better.

I count myself lucky not to live in one of the high density population centers of the UK, but it only takes a couple of 'errors of judgement' for it to happen anywhere :(

jfman 24-07-2020 21:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Well in my local the barmaid tested positive last week shortly after I'd been in for a pint so I have had the opposite luck!

Pierre 24-07-2020 22:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36044584)
Instead we've got the second wave coming

Glad to see Mystic Meg is back, and well.

jfman 24-07-2020 22:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Thanks for your good wishes.

Paul 24-07-2020 23:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
I went to the cinema the other year to watch the 5th Wave. :angel:

jfman 25-07-2020 00:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
How did you rate it against the others? There’s always a debate between whether the first or second is best in a series. Die Hard 1 and 2 I can’t pick between, 3 better than the remaining movies tho.

pip08456 25-07-2020 01:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044579)
My Daughter works in retail, and will not challange anyone, that isnt what she gets paid for, its the job of the police (or security).

Not enough police for that.

Paul 25-07-2020 03:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36044615)
Not enough police for that.

So ?

---------- Post added at 03:39 ---------- Previous post was at 03:36 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36044609)
How did you rate it against the others? There’s always a debate between whether the first or second is best in a series.

I'm not sure if you are joking, or dont know what it is :erm:

Carth 25-07-2020 09:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
I think he was being humorous, a little off the wall joke about the name of the film, coupled with the 'second wave' of Covid, and the belief that sometimes the second or third in a film series aren't as 'effective' as the first ;)

I do have a weird sense of humour though, so could be chuckling at a joke that isn't even there :D

nomadking 25-07-2020 18:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Coronavirus: Spain added to England's quarantine list
Quote:

Travellers returning to England from Spain will have to quarantine for 14 days from Sunday, the BBC understands.
It is believed the measures will come into force in the early hours of Sunday.
The UK government is expected to announce the change imminently, due to a significant spike in coronavirus cases in Spain.
How many people are going to get caught out by that?

Paul 25-07-2020 19:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
I wonder if it includes the Canary Islands.

Hugh 25-07-2020 19:38

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36044677)
Coronavirus: Spain added to England's quarantine list
How many people are going to get caught out by that?

Expect the action to be repeated for other countries when outbreaks happen.

---------- Post added at 19:38 ---------- Previous post was at 19:38 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044679)
I wonder if it includes the Canary Islands.

I believe so, along with the Balearics.

OLD BOY 25-07-2020 19:58

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36044584)
Yet now they are saying if we'd done it earlier it'd have been shorter, and easier to test, trace and isolate.

Instead we've got the second wave coming and Boris hasn't ruled out a second national lockdown. Indeed, he's already talking it up as a bold, drastic measure, a bit patriotic too like the nuclear deterrent.

The fact remains that the likes of Prof Whittey, by his own admission, were advising the government against an early lockdown. The government accepted that advice - why would they not?

Unless you let the virus run free in the population, we will continue to get second, third, fourth (etc) waves. It will carry on like that until it is done with us.

There is surely enough evidence of this in other parts of the world, and most recently in Spain. Admittedly, the virus would have been slowed down quicker had there been an earlier lockdown in the UK, but that would simply have left more people to be infected at a later date.

---------- Post added at 19:52 ---------- Previous post was at 19:50 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36044589)
l thought it was supposed to be world beating.;)

Yeah, if it worked! Boris fell for the civil service hype. They cannot keep to deadlines or what is expected of them for the life of them! I'm glad to see that a purge is on the cards.

---------- Post added at 19:55 ---------- Previous post was at 19:52 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36044590)
Indeed I agree, in March it was out of control which is why the emergency brake of a lockdown was needed. With exponential growth even a lockdown a week earlier, theoretically, would leave you chasing for 30% of the live cases give or take using a test, trace, isolate system at the end of an equal length lockdown.

If the virus goes out of control again then a second lockdown remains inevitable. Restrictions are coming back around the world, in US states and in Europe, where flare ups aren't brought under control by test, trace, isolate.

Any further lockdown should be targeted and focussed on 'at risk' groups. A total lockdown is taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

---------- Post added at 19:58 ---------- Previous post was at 19:55 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36044679)
I wonder if it includes the Canary Islands.

Hopefully, this will apply only to mainland Spain. It would be foolish to include the Canaries if their infection rates were acceptable.

jfman 25-07-2020 20:03

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36044682)
The fact remains that the likes of Prof Whittey, by his own admission, were advising the government against an early lockdown. The government accepted that advice - why would they not?

Unless you let the virus run free in the population, we will continue to get second, third, fourth (etc) waves. It will carry on like that until it is done with us.

There is surely enough evidence of this in other parts of the world, and most recently in Spain. Admittedly, the virus would have been slowed down quicker had there been an earlier lockdown in the UK, but that would simply have left more people to be infected at a later date.

You're making the assumption that there's lasting immunity. This remains unproven. There's no option to let the virus 'run free' - nobody, anywhere in the world, considers that a realistic proposition.

Even the Uber-capitalists in the United States are finding that restrictions are required.

Quote:

Yeah, if it worked! Boris fell for the civil service hype. They cannot keep to deadlines or what is expected of them for the life of them! I'm glad to see that a purge is on the cards.

Any further lockdown should be targeted and focussed on 'at risk' groups. A total lockdown is taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
A further lockdown, or indeed lockdowns, will be of the size and scale necessary to suppress the virus at that time. That depends on the numbers in the community - not some flawed ideological belief that people will continue to spend money while they lose jobs and risk their health carrying out normal day to day business.

nashville 25-07-2020 20:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
I have bought the face shields as I feel you can breath better,

nomadking 25-07-2020 20:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
The problem is too many people are behaving as if there isn't anything going on. Too many people partying etc. Too many people attending non-essential gatherings. If people were more cautious, here and on holiday abroad, things might ease up.

---------- Post added at 20:27 ---------- Previous post was at 20:21 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nashville (Post 36044689)
I have bought the face shields as I feel you can breath better,

Do they help with anything but face-to-face encounters? Eg If somebody is behind you, are you still protected from their exhaled breath? Mind you, the issue should be academic, if everybody else is wearing face masks, shields, or coverings.


Not sure they should be the first choice. Only use when a mask isn't an option.


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