Cable Forum - Coronavirus

Project fear is still running full pace though.

You should see the ridiculous email I got today about "returning to the office".

Its like they still think its the Jan 2021 2nd wave, and its a deadly nerve toxin that will kill you on contact. :rolleyes:

jonbxx

27-07-2021 09:36

Re: Coronavirus

The case numbers dropping seems to be great news but the raw numbers should be treated with a little caution because;

There is a big question on who is being tested and why. Schoolkids tests in England have suddenly dropped off the radar. If positivity is high in the 11-18 group, we are not seeing that group any more
Is everyone who has potential COVID symptoms being tested and are people more or less likely to be tested in the run up to the summer period?
Are risk averse people more likely to be tested than, for example, people who would happily put a flare where the sun doesn't shine?

Testing numbers on their own give a useful guide to where things are going but the data can be skewed easily if you don't look deeper into things. The ONS surveys are probably more reliable as they take in to account the population as a whole rather than those who actively get tested alone.

I hope the drop in cases is reflected in the overall real positive rate but I am not sure the daily reported case numbers are the clearest indicator

Carth

27-07-2021 10:10

Re: Coronavirus

I don't think there is a clear indicator of anything regarding Covid-19.

Testing figures include positive, negative, and void results, which IMO just tells you someone is making money from the very large amount of kits used.

Positive cases . . .

Quote:

Number of people with at least one positive COVID-19 test result, either lab-reported or rapid lateral flow test (England only), by specimen date.

Hospitalised figures doesn't tell you if they were in hospital 8 hours or 8 days.

Deaths from/with/28days is a figure that's subject to variables around dates, and has always been contentious.

Question: If somebody gets a mild Covid infection, or is asymptomatic, do they then have antibodies similar to being vaccinated? At 25k cases a day that could be a lot of needles not needed. :shrug:

Taf	27-07-2021 10:37

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36087543)

Schoolkids tests in England have suddenly dropped off the radar.

It's the school holidays?

tweetiepooh

27-07-2021 10:49

Re: Coronavirus

Can't find the reference as just glanced through the articles but was reading that a fair percentage of those testing positive for CV in hospital likely contracted it in hospital or at least were not attending because of CV symptoms.

The stats are all over the place and there so many variables changing all at once it's a wonder anyone can get much from it other than those who can pick up on "some trend" that backs up their agenda.

spiderplant

27-07-2021 10:55

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36087546)

Hospitalised figures doesn't tell you if they were in hospital 8 hours or 8 days.

They publish both admissions and numbers in hospital. It's currently:

Patients admitted 922
Patients in hospital 5,238

So on average people are staying in 5.6 days.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36087546)

Question: If somebody gets a mild Covid infection, or is asymptomatic, do they then have antibodies similar to being vaccinated? At 25k cases a day that could be a lot of needles not needed. :shrug:

Infection provides some protection, but vaccination provides more. Infection+vaccination is better still.

Besides, the cost of testing for antibodies would exceed the cost of vaccinating regardless. And you'd still need to vaccinate all the people who tested negative for antibodies.

jonbxx

27-07-2021 10:57

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36087551)

It's the school holidays?

Absolutely. I have 2 secondary school age kids who definitely aren't missing their twice weekly testing. That said, I am not missing logging the tests either - the website for result logging is a mess and changes every few days...

heero_yuy

27-07-2021 11:09

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 36087554)

According to The Sun it's some "leaked" data:

Quote:

Quote from The Sun:

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...8&d=1562846859

More than half of covid hospitalisations are patients who tested positive after they were admitted, it has been reported.

Leaked data suggests the majority of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid-19 were initially admitted for different ailments.

Figures show patients were eventually diagnosed with Covid through routine testing that is required for everyone admitted to the hospital.

The data, covering all NHS trusts in England, suggests that as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of Covid patients had tested positive by the time they were admitted, the Telegraph reports.

The majority of cases were not detected until the standard Covid tests were carried out.

Fifty six per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data suggests.

The NHS has been told to provide "a breakdown of the current stock of Covid patients" by separating those in hospital for the virus and those for other reasons, the Telegraph reports.

How much can be read into this data is the question: Did the patients already have a covid infection before they were admitted or did they catch it in hospital?

Seems the Telegraph have the story but that's paywalled.

tweetiepooh

27-07-2021 11:27

Re: Coronavirus

What it does show is that some people in hospital that have Covid didn't attend hospital for Covid. It is possible that a number have contracted Covid after admittance.

Carth

27-07-2021 11:52

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36087556)

They publish both admissions and numbers in hospital. It's currently:

Patients admitted 922
Patients in hospital 5,238

So on average people are staying in 5.6 days.

I think you've just proved my point by taking the average, it doesn't address the question of - for example - how many are in & out within 24 hours after a quick basic checkup & treatment?

spiderplant

27-07-2021 12:33

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36087560)

Seems the Telegraph have the story but that's paywalled.

You can read most of it via the BBC's front page review at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-57978946

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36087565)

I think you've just proved my point by taking the average, it doesn't address the question of - for example - how many are in & out within 24 hours after a quick basic checkup & treatment?

People turned away from A&E and told to take paracetamol won't be counted as admissions.

Carth

27-07-2021 12:41

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant (Post 36087567)

People turned away from A&E and told to take paracetamol won't be counted as admissions.

Probably won't bother self isolating either then :D

The good news is that potentially all of those 300,000 'pinged' 10 days ago will be back at work tomorrow . . . and those figures should roll on every day now so panic over ;)

jfman

27-07-2021 12:50

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36087560)

According to The Sun it's some "leaked" data:

How much can be read into this data is the question: Did the patients already have a covid infection before they were admitted or did they catch it in hospital?

Seems the Telegraph have the story but that's paywalled.

I saw this last night something like 43% tested positive within 48 hours of being admitted - in other words likely had Covid prior to being admitted due to the incubation period. They might not have been in for Covid related reasons but they almost certainly came in with Covid.

OLD BOY

27-07-2021 12:51

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36087560)

From the Telegraph:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ive-admission/

Quote:

More than half of Covid hospitalisations are patients who only tested positive after admission, leaked data reveal.

The figures suggest vast numbers are being classed as hospitalised by Covid when they were admitted with other ailments, with the virus picked up by routine testing.

Experts said it meant the national statistics, published daily on the government website and frequently referred to by ministers, may far overstate the levels of pressures on the NHS.

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.

Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.

Mod Edit - link supplied, and original post quote reduced in size to comply with "Fair Use" guidelines.

(Posting the whole article does not comply with "Fair Use")

1andrew1

27-07-2021 12:52

Re: Coronavirus

We need to help ensure the rest of the world is vaccinated to prevent more variants emerging.

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