Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

It sure is


https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...Germany-France

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Indeed. They're a trade bloc of members. The UK not getting the benefits of membership without the costs of membership is an obvious starting point for any similar situation.

Unfortunately when you are a small, declining economy you don't have many bargaining chips when it comes to negotiating.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Sorry to break the news to you, but both imports and exports to the UK from the EU will be hampered by paperwork even with a deal in place. That's a consequence of leaving the single market.

Maybe also need to add that you won't be able to use passport lanes labelled "EU and EEA citizens only".

There's probably a few more things to update you on here but best not unsettle you too much in one post. ;)

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This talk from Michael Gove is fascinating in terms of not invoking Article 50 straight away, how we can set the pace etc.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/po...-brexit/16/10/

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

We all know Boris will cave at the last minute and sign up to a far from equitable better than nothing deal (certainly nothing like the easiest free trade deal in the history of easy free trade deals we were promised) and then he'll have the shameless front to try and proclaim that the UK shitty end of the stick deal we're then lumbered with was his master plan all along (:rolleyes: - for Nomad ;)).

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Agreed - as soon as BoJo announced he was "taking personal charge of negotiations" I heard all the French fishermen immediately placed orders for new vessels knowing the direction of travel the talks would take with BoJo in charge. :D

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What about those who claim to be "impartial observers" but all their posts say they aren’t?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I have always been in favour of brexit.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/use3qqel...r_201022_W.pdf

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I think the impartial, observing Trump supporters are to be found in the US election thread. ;)

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Ireland faces economic oblivion: Bank chief admits hard Brexit will DEVASTATE country



Gabriel Makhlouf insisted Dublin would be the Eurozone’s biggest loser if the UK and EU fail to broker a Brexit trade deal before the end of the year. But he claimed the economic misery of lockdowns to curb the spread of the pandemic will only double the pain. The banker said new tariffs on goods would devastate Ireland’s agriculture and food sectors, knocking two percentage points from the country’s economic growth in 2021.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...economy-update

Oh dear oh dear to be sure that'll be a fine pickle to be in.

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But bbbbut they're part of the biggest trading...................:sick:

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If a so-called hard Brexit will devastate Ireland, imagine what it will do to the UK!
But I'm sure BoJo won't let that happen.

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I think you’re misunderstanding the balance of trade between the U.K. and Ireland just a little.

We are 11% of all their exports; within that we take 43% of all their food and livestock exports.

However, the key statistic is that we have a trade surplus of more than £13bn with them. There is not an equal flow of goods and services between the two countries, and therefore there’s no basis for assuming the U.K. will be equally as affected by trade barriers - and certainly no justification for claiming we would come off worse.

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He was probably just being impartial;)

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The benefits of membership? We just want a bloody trade deal!

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That doesn't take into account the fact that Ireland can still trade unhindered with the EU27 from January and we can't.
But as I said, I don't think BoJo will let it come to this, he'll strike a deal.

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You're making an assumption on this and thinking that an economic bloc of 27 countries acts in the same emotional manner that one meotional human being does.

It doesn't. The UK is not being offered the same deal as Canada as it does far more trade with the EU than Canada does and is far closer. Doesn't matter how much we might throw our toys out of the pram, we're not getting the same deal. That's a rational economic and political decision, not a "punish us" reason.

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Would just like to thank you for the inspiration. ;)

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As you know impartiality is my middle name ;)

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I'm struggling a bit here Seph, can you explain to me why do they have to give us a Canada style deal or indeed any style of deal?

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Just trying to save you you from the negativity of playing the victim. ;)

It's time for the likes of Michael Gove et al to take responsibility for their actions and not hide behind others when the outcomes don't match their 2016 speeches.

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Looks like a U-Turn from Barnier. :erm:

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

In fairness, it’s not clear what if any differences there are between Canada and a ‘Canada style’ deal as being proposed. And Barnier is simply a middle man for Berlin and Paris.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

That's certainly more plausible than the punish-us one.

Normally, if you punish someone or something, you let them know that you're doing it! ;)

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Plenty of time to go for more rounds between now and December :D

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Thanks for telling me I'm not struggling - appreciated. Maybe I should have chosen my words better as I was actually struggling to see why you feel we're 'owed' any sort of deal.

I understand now why you're upset - you feel the EU must stand by everything their representatives say while ours on the other hand are free (and right?) to duck and dive as much as they want.

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"Sovereignty", innit?

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I think it's old-fashioned British exceptionalism rising to the surface again.

Meanwhile, Gibraltar is seeking closer EU ties.
https://www.ft.com/content/50fa05a3-...1-d114ac609867

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I'm afraid I can see them wanting to give us less preferential treatment then they do to those country that still pay their subs, now if that's punishing us then yes you're right. I am smiling however how selective you are about us being 'promised' the Canada deal - in the very article you posted it says more than once that any such deal was years of negotiation away - it's almost you didn't (choose to?) read past the headline.

I just can't help thinking that some very pro-leave people are akin to someone cancelling their season ticket at their local premier league club then being incredulous when they find out they can't continue to have access to every home game for free. I don't like or agree with some of the things the EU have done but at the same time some of the things the UK have done have made me quite angry and are certainly not something as a county we should be proud of - if you can't see that then it must be because there are things you don't want to see either.

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:D:D:D

There's a degree of desperation creeping in when this type of approach is used. To be fair, I can sympathise but not empathise with Seph as there's precious little else to prop up his opinion.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I think these are the points that are really the sticking points on the EU side.
3. Is fair enough, there should be differences between trade/movement deals and full membership.

2. Is what is at the nub of the situation for the EU side. If we can leave the club but still trade and have some degree of movement then the whole club can become a non-entitiy as others would want the same.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I'm pretty sure some members of the 'club' are following things very closely, and depending on the result will be weighing up the pro's & cons of remaining a member ;)

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The UK is not trying to negotiate anything close to 'loose membership' status. Norway and Switzerland style arrangements (so-called 'EEA-plus') were dismissed very early on.

The problem is that the EU is philosophically unequipped for the reversal of the irreversible, which is represented by the UK's departure. We have contravened the grand narrative of ever-closer union, and while the institution may pay lip service to respect for the referendum result, they simply don't have the intellectual resources to understand what that actually looks like.

Thus, we have become stuck on symbols that echo all the way back to the earliest days of European empires. Who rules the waves? For the UK side, sovereign control over territorial waters and appropriate control of the exclusive economic zone as recognised in international law is a given. For the EU side - for which read, the French in this case - the old imperial power is up to its old tricks, and worse, is seeking to exclude French trawlers from parts of the sea that didn't even sit within the UK's economic zone at the point the UK joined the EU (the relevant UN agreement not having come into force until 1982). Plus, French trawler men are militant and Macron is justifiably worried about what will happen if the UK gets its way on this.

We have ended up in an impasse and one side or the other is going to have to give way, if not now, then in a year or two once everyone is fed up with the additional complexities of carrying on business without a trade deal. Personally, and I know I speak as a Brexit supporter, I can't conceive of this ending without the UK controlling its waters outside the CFP. It is a basic issue of sovereignty, which is the very thing the EU as an institution is hard-wired to think of as negotiable, but there are pragmatic voices in the member states who are going to have to find a way to talk Macron down, and I believe they will do so. Eventually.

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Fishing just needs to be a gradual wind-down over say three years so fishermen can readjust.

No-deal would mean that many UK fishermen would go out of business due to tariffs pricing them out of the key EU market. eg British shellfish sales to the EU are worth £430m a year – more than a quarter of all UK fish exports by value. They are key to the survival of small-scale fishermen in Scotland and the West Country.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...xposed-no-deal

UK needs to think about how it allocates future quotas - over half is owned by foreign companies
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52420116

Spain, Holland and Iceland acquired 88% of Wales's quotas.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/93...fishing-quotas

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Bloomin' establishment! :D

https://www.ft.com/content/807e1c15-...7-562ffc57e232

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

The commons will just send it back and it will go through.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Or the government could use the Parliament Act to override the Lords, they do not have veto powers because of said Act.

Andrew just blindly finds links to articles without doing any actual homework. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

The Parliament Act doesn’t allow the Commons to override the Lords immediately. If the Lords reject the bill there is a 12 month delay before it is reintroduced; if the Lords votes it down at that point the Parliament Act may be used to force it through.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I think it was primarily a gambit intended to try to make the EU take them seriously, yes. There was never any way their Lordships were going to pass the bill unamended and there is no mechanism for the government to force it into law any earlier than late 2021. If they were truly determined to have their way they would now have to park it until next year, but they can't; they need to get UK single market rules in place, which means the Commons is eventually going to have to send back a version of the bill the Lords will support, in the next few weeks. And if they do that, and if it is accepted and becomes law, there is no means of using the parliament act next year to put the controversial provisions back on the table and then force them through.

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Last throw of the dice before caving in but the huge negative reaction to the proposed legislation by the EU and US meant it backfied.

Meanwhile, British industry continues to pile the pressure on.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-ntp-feeds

---------- Post added at 10:58 ---------- Previous post was at 10:05 ----------

Will be interesting to see how this develops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...rtan-ntp-feeds

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And what exactly was meant to be the nature of this alleged meddling?:confused:
Expressing an opinion on something is not meddling. Doesn't matter where it comes from.

For the umpteenth time, enough people wanted to leave long before any suggestion of a referendum. That is why the referendum happened in the first place.

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:clap::clap::clap:

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I'm sure that as an advocate of democracy, you welcome this being tested oin the courts. ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I'm sure that as an advocate of not being able to accept the referendum result, you welcome this being tested in the courts. ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

:clap::clap::clap:

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Lol, good try! :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

If we leave with no deal, this poll says that the public will blame Johnson:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...bep_csid=23472

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...9&d=1604068459

<checks news for the last seven months>

Nope, can not see any reason why car sales would be dropping. Nothing at all.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Redwood by name, dead wood by nature. Hopefully he'll do the decent thing and retire.

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Naw, can't be right, it's the fault of the pesky EU who want to punish us and all those who voted Remain. ;)

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

This is a non sequitur.

Our democratic processes are not subject to routine court supervision. Any attempt to bring judicial oversight to bear on our democratic processes should be politically neutral and there should be a prima facie case to answer. Given the circumstances of this court challenge I doubt either is the case here.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

He's talking a load of nonsense as many motor dealerships are closed down due to Coronavirus levels and consumer confidence is low hence people are deferring buying new cars. It's outside their control.

He appears to be deaf in the face of an important industry.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Consumer confidence and a lot of cars not doing much mileage with the rise in WFH.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

I've never failed to condemn Corbyn and I hope he does the decent thing and steps down as an MP. But that's a different topic.
Not sure how car manufacturers can complain to the Coronavirus for the damage it's done to their livelihoods. But they can try and educate the government about the need to avoid no-deal.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

What's your point? Are you expecting car manufacturers to openly lobby against lockdown and locked-down staff not being funded 100% of their salaries? Ain't gonna happen.

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Because the slump is due to people not buying cars because of lock downs, not travelling by car to/from work, concerned about being laid off, being paid less due to being furloughed, car showrooms shut for a couple of months, not due to the fact we are in the customs union and single market...

To quote the SMMT (the people who manufacture and sell cars) We had solid growth in car sales in the first two months of this year (when we were still in the customs union and single market), but then they slumped in March - oooh, what could be the cause?


https://www.smmt.co.uk/2020/05/used-...irst%20quarter.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

If the extended talks involving Barnier had come to nothing we’d have heard all about it. They’re clearly now getting their heads around the issues properly.

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Let them eat cake.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

He may have to. His demand is unprecedented in EU trade deals and is totally irrelevant to most member state governments who have little to no interest in fishing in U.K. waters. It is small beer economically (to us as well as them, to be fair) which means the only insurmountable issue with it is one of sovereignty. This is why the U.K. can’t budge and France (and the EU) can, and must. I’m pretty sure Macron knows this and the negotiating efforts right now are focused on an acceptable strategy for allowing him to climb down.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Most positive news I've heard in the negotiations so far. Does seem to be a bit of the kicking of the tin can down the alley but that's to be expected.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sse-over-fish?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

At last, Andrew, something we agree on!

If only you meant it...

:D

---------- Post added at 18:53 ---------- Previous post was at 18:00 ----------

You are right about that.

In the end, Merkel will step in to over-rule him and that will show the French who’s really in charge. Next thing you know, Le Pen will win a popular vote for Frexit!

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

By 2035?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Looks like that will be a good year! :D

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Hang on there as l was thinking 2025.;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Is that when we rejoin the EU? I knew something apart from the end of linear TV was happening then. ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Will the EU still exist then?

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Yup. Heck, it's far enough ahead for even Turkey to have joined!

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Probably, but it won't be called that anymore . . . and the uniforms will be different . . and everyone will carry guns and wear body armour . . and they won't eat fish :p:

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Yeah, well you are fond of misremembering! ;)

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

A daft idea, trying to manage both at the same time. the Government should have postponed Brexit for a year whilst it had the chance. :dunce:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ays-thinktanks

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

The IfG is stuffed with Remainers and bankrolled by Lord Sainsbury, whose views on Brexit are very clear. They're entitled to their view but they're far from impartial on this subject, especially when it comes to making arguments that just so happen to involve delaying Brexit.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

It’s important to note we’ve left the EU. Brexit has happened.

The transition period isn’t a vehicle to remain. Especially not in this Parliament.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Granted, we've left the EU. Extending the transition period, however, is attractive to the continuity remain campaign because it kicks the can down the road. Things are about as bad as they could possibly be, from their point of view, so any delay, with the mere possibility of something useful showing up, is as good a strategy as any.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

If it was a pro-Remain report it would want January 1 to go as badly as possible and they could have proclaimed "Told you so". By suggesting a means to make the change more painless suggests a degree of objectivity.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

However the transition period can’t be extended forever. It has an ultimate end date. There’s no end game for the ‘continuity remain’ types utilising this so it shouldn’t really be viewed through that prism. Or at least the idea of extension shouldn’t be dismissed on that basis.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

They may inhabit a dusty corner of Twitter but I don't think there is continuity-remain element of any scale.

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Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Sensible pragmatism over ideology.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

Very clever, Andrew, but we sussed the game you are playing sometime back now.

Any old excuse to delay our freedom which increases the scope to reverse everything.

The end of the transitional period will not be extended. We can be sure of that at least.

Re: Brexit-Transitional Period Ends 31/12/20
 

It may well not be, but if Biden wins overnight it leaves the UK scratching around with no major trade deals. The groundwork for which could be laid over the next 12 months. We can decide that as a free and sovereign nation.

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