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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Chris put me onto the excellent Phillips O'Brien for his commentary on Ukraine. He also comments on other matters including the current call for a new referendum in Scotland.
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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We didn’t have any additional costs of governing as we already governed ourselves. The Scots have only devolved government and will have to find the money to pay for the cost of running full government services. Brexit has its costs for us, but the Brexit plan is to recoup and enhance revenue by trading with our new freedoms with the rest of the world. This includes agreeing new trade deals with services (our biggest source of income) included. Remainers claim that the worsened economic conditions we have at present are proof that Brexit doesn’t work. However, so far the pandemic has slowed down the implementation of the manifesto. We have not yet had the bonfire of regulations or the new style trade agreements, for example. We are still bogged down sorting out the EU’s bureaucracy. However, Scotland has no plan that iss of economic benefit in their future independent state that I can see. Certainly none that they have made public. The only thing in common is the sovereignty issue. But that will not help the Scottish poor. ---------- Post added at 11:41 ---------- Previous post was at 11:39 ---------- Quote:
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Mr K is right, of course, about Boris being a clown. But he is wrong to apply the "united is better" analogy to the UK and the EU for all the reasons previously debated. |
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Mod edit (Chris): Several off-topic posts removed. This is a Scexit thread, not a Brexit thread.
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Shouldn’t that be ”Joxit"? ;)
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Polls now neck and neck.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20...ck-poll-finds/ Squeaky bum time. If Westminster are confident of the result let them have another referendum? Surely a Bozza led campaign will win them over? :confused: The Nationalists are in a rush as they see the best chance of a Yes vote with the current PM. |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Be very hard to ignore the will of the people in a referendum, authorised or not...
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We cannot allow this to happen , we must fight back to keep our Great Britain as our four Nations together, Scotland could not go it along , Sturgeon will stop at nothing to get her way , She should be done for treason
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I dont think Scotland leaving is likely to harm the UK much, at least not as much as its likely to hurt Scotland ...
I know a few people who would say "good riddance", they have not had great experiences with Scottish people. (Personally, I've found the vast majority I have encounted to be quite friendly, and not like they are often portrayed). |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
I've never seen/heard Scots portrayed as generally unfriendly.
"Good riddance" is not an appropriate sentiment. "Sod 'em" is appropriate if they choose to leave the UK. |
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If the wee w8tch gets her ref2 then I think they should have more str8ct rules on what counts as a 2in for yes. For example it needs to be a clear majority, like 60% in favour. Where as if it was 51% yes and 49% no then it should count as that's barely a success.
Or just forget about it and fix the country and run it properly. |
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How very democratic. And how very EU.:rolleyes: |
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Wasn't the polls in Eire to join the EU a bit like that. Keep asking until you get a "yes" vote.
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Denmark had two on the Maastricht Treaty. The first was a No, so of course there had to be another.
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The UK set the precedent by overturning the 1975 result.
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The first referendum was held in June 2008 was rejected by the Irish electorate, by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%, with a turnout of 53%.[ The second referendum was held in October 2009, and the proposal was approved by 67.1% to 32.9%, with a turnout of 59%. |
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2) 51 year gap v 1 year gap between votes. Not only once in a generation, but different questions. 3) 1975 was to be in the European Economic Community, which is very different and a large number of additional countries, compared to the EU which it morphed into. |
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Just like we could apply to rejoin the EU, the Scots could apply to rejoin the UK. Both, of course, could be told to Foxtrot Oscar... |
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Two treaties we didn’t even get a vote on. Maastricht - which is basically what turned the EEC into the EU and a political entity, followed by Lisbon which basically turned the EU into a quasi-state. All members need to agree. The Rep of Ireland did not agree but rather than accept that, the question was asked again (sound familiar) and was overturned a year later. This is not the first time. Ireland’s laws meant that they had to have a vote on at his type of thing. They initially rejected the Treaty of Nice, only to have to vote again on it a year later. Denmark was also ordered to think again on Maastricht. https://www.statista.com/chart/16479...a-second-vote/ |
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:rofl:
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To the surprise of no-one, I expect. We now look forward to 2 years of Nicola telling us she’s decreed by force of her mighty will that the 2024 general election is in fact a referendum. |
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And even if the SNP reduces its manifesto to a one line ‘vote us = vote yes’, can they really claim in one vote to have unpicked the complex reasons why people vote as they do? |
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I get the 'once in a generation' thing, but it will have been nearly 10 years so it is a new generation. 10 years worth of new voters. Personally I think it would be a disaster for all concerned, but up to them. The inevitable break up of the UK is one of the consequences of another referendum we had, maybe everyone wants to now 'take back control'. (a vote that we had a few times on the same issue so there is a precedent). Denying people a vote on an issue, because you're scared of the result, won't end well and could well backfire when the next vote does happen. |
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Denying a vote now isn’t fear of the outcome, it’s fear of the process, alongside an appeal to respect the parameters of the debate and the vote, all of which were set by the campaign for a yes/leave vote. The entire UK has now experienced the deeply unpleasant consequences of dividing the electorate on a constitutional issue that is substantially grounded in national identity. Scotland has been experiencing that on steroids since 2014 because there is no natural permanent lobby for status quo but there is one for change, namely the SNP, which obviously isn’t going to give up on its whole reason to exist. Imagine a remain vote in 2016 and where the UK might now be with Nigel Farage and the Brexit Party or some variation on it. Had Brexit been settled by a narrow remain vote, how accommodating would you now be of his inevitable demands for a re-run? |
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Link
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As I'm sure you know, when anyone is born, their next generation is when they themselves grow up and have children. (It would also have been 9 years, since she proposed 2023). |
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Not sure the SNP should compare voting for the Scottish Parliament with a referendum as around 1m more voted in the referendum, plus there wouldn't really be a "No" campaign.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-s...-idUKKCN1NP25P https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,s...g-eu_13350.htm https://www.google.com/search?q=Spai...hrome&ie=UTF-8 My question is this: I have a British passport. Can opt to be Scottish? So my family can re-join the EU? |
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But it's incorrect to say that Spain would stand in Scotland's way of joining the EU. Not to say that they won't change their minds in the future though. https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-membe...pain-scotland/ https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/new...ining-eu-veto/ https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-s...-idUKKCN1NP25P ---------- Post added at 23:24 ---------- Previous post was at 23:18 ---------- Quote:
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If it were up to me I'd let them of their share of the debt if it meant they leave the union |
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Although Truss had an appalling mini budget, in general I think it's simplistic to blame political parties solely for increases in debt during their time when events like the Global Financial Crisis, wars and even recessions arise. |
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https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/bre...commons-87118/ |
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She's gone!
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Ding, dong …
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Internal SNP politics?
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I’m going to take a wild guess that it’s health related. No matter how mediocre she has been at actually achieving anything in leadership she wouldn’t willingly do anything to derail their onward march to independence. The appearance of unity and well controlled party management is central to the SNP’s view of itself. |
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Maybe she is just sick of the job at this point? |
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The Scottish media collectively is absolutely awful at holding the government to account here so it is depressingly business-as-usual for us to know nothing about this and for there not to have been adequate coverage of the fact that the SNP (and more recently the SNP-Green coalition) is just crap at actually getting anything done. If she’s spent 8 years slowly sinking the ship and now she’s going to try and do a St. Jacinda to gain public sympathy for her mediocrity then what little respect I have for her will rapidly vanish. |
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The state broadcaster does an excellent job at criticising the government (ferries, gender, deposit return), it’s just so transparently biased it doesn’t seep through into mobilising voters in the direction they want.
My hunch is a bit from “internal party politics” and a bit from “had enough”. Independence parties win Holyrood elections, and the SNP wins Westminster elections at a landslide. It’s still not going to get independence over the line in the near or perhaps even medium term. |
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Only because the independence vote is concentrated almost entirely in one party whilst politics as usual is spread across three other ideologically distinct, unionist parties. But you knew that already. :rolleyes:
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You probably knew that too. :rolleyes: |
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But even in SNP Scotland, political mediocrity has a gravity all of its own. The gender reform bill/rapist-in-a-women’s-prison debacle, ferries that have cost more than 10 SpaceX rocket launches without yet having carried a single passenger, teachers on strike, meaningless targets for banning gas boilers and petrol cars, unworkable plans for social care reform and the Greens poised to tank the nation’s ability to sell bottled drinks … sooner or later people start noticing, and it seems her regular press conferences have become quite trying of late. |
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Almost every single issue you identify applies across the UK (while not ferries, there’s similarly flawed procurement. Bottle return is coming to England too. Although at least Starmer is finally capitalising upon the situation in the polls. Where/when will the unionists in Scotland step up? |
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Well, she’s on the telly now, desperately trying to channel the spirit of Jacinda Ardern.
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Can anyone, anywhere, name a Scottish Labour policy off the top of their head? |
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:rofl:
She says the SNP is awash with talent and potential successors. Yet the polling says the most recognised of them as a potential leader is Kate Forbes on (wait for it) SEVEN whole percent. And 67% simply don’t know. |
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Looks legit.
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Nobody can make Sturgeon carry on if she doesn't want to. I wonder if a political party could legitimately continue without a leader? Even if it could, I doubt that the voters would have any confidence in them and they'd not achieve any power.
Do we think that the issue of independence will fade away now that Sturgeon is going? |
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However the Scotland Act requires there to be a First Minister. When the incumbent resigns, the parliament must choose a new one within 28 days (via a ballot of all MSPs - this is done by the parliament, not by the largest party or governing coalition). The king then formally appoints the winner. If no candidate is presented to the king after 28 days, the parliament’s presiding officer is obliged to call a general election. Sturgeon will not actually resign until the SNP has chosen a new leader. That person will then be presented to parliament as a candidate and will most likely be the only candidate. A vote must still take place and the candidate must secure a simple majority of MSP votes to be selected. |
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It looks now like Sturgeon didn’t fancy spending the weekend explaining how a self-identifying trans woman gets charged with sexually assaulting an 11 year old and this wouldn’t be an issue for him/her going to a female prison on remand.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...tland-64678419 By coincidence the Scottish Prison Service updated their policy on 9th February. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...r-birth-gender The very same day Andrew Miller/Amy George appeared in court, having been charged the day before. |
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Anyone doubting Sturgeon's political skills only needs to look at the lunacy of the people fighting to succeed her. Amazing drop off in quality and all the more impressive she managed a party so divided and insane.
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Sturgeon’s sole political skill is presentation. She talks a good game, which is why you lot down south all think she aced her covid response when all she was really doing was copying whatever HMG did and adding a bell or a whistle to it to make out she had somehow considered it more deeply or carefully. Everything she has said and done since 2014 has been about maintaining a very broad political coalition of rank amateurs who would be lucky to get a seat on an English county council. So yes, to that extent I agree with you, now she’s checked out, the wheels are well and truly coming off the SNP clown car. And not before time. |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
So given the wheels are coming off it will be interesting how their vote stands up in a future general election given Sturgeon is not there anymore.
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
The SNP clown car attempts another circuit of the ring even as bits keep falling off. In this case, the 30,000 bits they seem to have lost since the end of 2021 (or indeed the 20,000 bits they lost in the 18 months prior to that).
From a peak of more than 120,000 members in 2019 the party executive has now been forced to admit it’s down to 72,000. Only a month ago they flatly denied a report in the nationalist movement’s in-house comic, The National, that they had lost 30,000 members in a year. Presumably on the basis that it actually took them 15 months rather than 12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-64976104 |
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And two ferries that are 3x over budget, 5 years late, as of this week delayed a further 6 months requiring a further £6 million in contingency funding. Bill to the taxpayer thus far, getting very close to £300m. Yes, that’s right, THREE HUNDRED MILLION POUNDS.
Oh, and the executives in charge of the yard (which is state owned after the SNP government bought it to try to prevent a PR disaster) have been awarding themselves bonuses, worth £87k over the last 3 years. ‘Nicola Sturgeon is a formidable operator’ will one day be judged in the same light as ‘Russia has a formidable army’. Both have been feared and admired, both turn out to be good for nothing but wanton destruction. |
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Very poor stewardship of taxpayers money. https://commercial.apolloduck.com/li...ort=0&limit=10 Even the MOD have seen the light, buying used vessels to convert to an MROSS for the RFA. It was first mooted the MROSS vessels would be new builds, but there are very capable existing hulls out there that can be converted, saving millions. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...ves-in-the-uk/ |
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There are all sorts of things wrong with the procurement assumptions at CMAL, the state body that owns Scotland’s entire maritime transport infrastructure. On top of all of them, in this specific instance, was the SNP’s political imperative to prevent the last commercial shipbuilder on the Clyde from going bust and then chucking it an eye-catching order for two great big Hebridean ferries that would look great on the front of the newspapers with Alex and Nicola waving from the bridge.
Ferguson Marine had never built a ferry this big, and it was now asked to build two of them simultaneously, and also to incorporate novel dual fuel technology that was entirely beyond its experience or expertise. Add to that CMAL’s slapdash, fluid and lackadaisical approach to design and specification and it was a disaster in the making. The reason for the latest six-month delay announced this week is that, incredibly, so many years down the line, they are *still* coming to build bits of these things and finding that the bits haven’t even been properly designed and specced. CMAL is State owned and Scottish ministers are its ‘shareholders’. Ferguson Marine is likewise State owned. The shytte-show that is CMAL is squarely the responsibility of the SNP who have been in government for 16 years. And the utter farce that is Ferguson Marine is not something the SNP can claim to have inherited. It is entirely of their own invention. |
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And it’s howling at the moon compared to HS2, or other similarly farcical UK-led procurement or investment. I don’t see as many tears shed for taxpayers money when it’s London burning through more of it, faster.
That said, it shouldn’t detract from the hilarity that has been the SNP leadership contest of which the membership numbers and accusations of “Trumpian nonsense” is the latest instalment. One can only suspect the massive self inflicted own goal of “gender reform” hasn’t went down to well with the membership. Scotland isn’t as socially progressive as the SNP Twitter echo chamber would wish it to be. I also think having a go at Forbes for her religion, in a country with a sectarianism problem, is a really interesting approach. The really negative outcome - in the absence of any meaningful policies from the unionists - would be even greater influence for the Green Party after the next election. |
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Yes, Westminster has its grand foibles and incompetencies but there is an entire forum in which we can (and do) discuss them. Bringing them up here just whiffs of whataboutery. ;) And as for Forbes, well yes, I think one of the things Sturgeon has got spectacularly wrong is that her eye has been so fixated on building grand coalitions that she thought shackling herself to the Green Party and its gender ID proposals would kill two birds with one stone and generally be an extremely Good Idea. Yet the upshot is you have to wonder whether she has any understanding at all of what Scotland actually is. |
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It’s not whataboutery to bring a sense of perspective to the claims of gross incompetence that unionists - like yourself - will cling to. The SNP don’t exist in a vacuum. Scottish politics is a competitive marketplace devoid of ideas.
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Yep … as I said earlier, The National (strapline, “the newspaper that supports an independent Scotland”) actually got hold of the membership numbers a month ago. When they put it to the SNP Press Office they unfortunately seem to have framed the question in such a way that the SNP leadership thought it could swerve it with a denial. I thought it might have been to do with the exact timing of the loss of members but apparently it was to do with the National suggesting that the Gender ID bill was the precise cause. The SNP leadership can’t know for certain what the cause of all those lost members is so they used that as the basis for a flat denial.
In the light of all that has come out this week that has put the person acting as press spokesman in a very difficult position because the agreed response was clearly an extremely pedantic and deliberate ploy to avoid the truth. The party leadership might have assured itself that it wasn’t lying but nobody outside that clique will see it that way. |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Mr Sturgeon resigns as CEO of the SNP.
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Indeed. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65000606
The wheels haven’t just come off, they’ve bounced over the central reservation and caused a pile-up on the opposite carriageway. |
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At this point Ash Regan going to court and getting the process started again might actually be beneficial. They can heavily lean on almost anyone else - Robertson, Matheson or McKee to have a long hard think about it.
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Sod the lot of them. I'm so pleased their bubble is bursting.
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Nicola Sturgeon has recorded a song to celebrate her time in office:
https://www.google.com/search?q=fe+f...id:Tn-ZSizEdMI |
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SNP in 'tremendous mess' ..
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Deep fried schadenfreude never tasted so good:D
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After the disaster of Nicola Sturgeon and her party, Who on earth would we want to vote the SNP again, Scotland , England Ireland and Wales all need each other, We are a great country together, why let these halfwits break it up. They have wasted enough money and getting nowhere but failures,
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……. and would we allow 16 year olds to vote? |
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Humza Yousaf to succeed Sturgeon as SNP leader.
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The clown has taken over the circus.
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The numbers are interesting. Despite 3 quite different choices, 20,000 people didn’t bother to vote. For a party that would style itself as progressive, a significant chunk of it’s membership votes Forbes ahead of Yousaf, or wasn’t so concerned by her socially conservative values as to vote at all.
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The vote split is I suspect very revealing of where Scotland really is, culturally and socially. If Humza Useless hadn’t been very overtly the establishment candidate I suspect Forbes would have done better still, and could have won it. Whatever, it’s settled now. We’re in for a couple of years of the same old, same old, and then probably quite a difficult election for the SNP. |
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If these two are the best that the SNP can do then its fun time for Labour for the next GE ... |
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Public polling throughout this campaign has consistently shown Kate Forbes was the voters’ favourite. The SNP has missed an opportunity to bring in a new broom and a popular face and has instead stuck with business as usual with a minister whose record is hardly glowing. The noises coming from the other political parties in Scotland are rather positive this evening. The SNP ought to worry why that is. |
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Hmmm - Humza Yousaf - Scottish Nationalist? |
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He was born in Glasgow… |
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