Cable Forum - Coronavirus

Medics fear surge in winter viruses alongside Covid

A surge in flu and other respiratory viruses could put pressure on people's health and the NHS this winter, warns a report by leading medics.

They say testing for flu, Covid and a respiratory virus common in children and the elderly - called RSV - may help doctors treat cases more quickly.

The Academy of Medical Sciences report calls for people with any symptoms to isolate and stay at home.

This will help protect against all respiratory viruses this winter.

The report, by 29 leading experts and requested by the government, says there is great uncertainty about what the next few months will hold across the UK, but it urges policymakers to prepare for a challenging winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57837192

Sephiroth

15-07-2021 17:15

Re: Coronavirus

That report tells us nothing that we haven't known for decades. That they come out with this Project Fear guff is ridiculous.

Quote:

They say testing for flu, Covid and a respiratory virus common in children and the elderly - called RSV - may help doctors treat cases more quickly.

Doctors don't treat flu unless you've gone pneumonic or have converted to bacterial infection. You get flu, feel rotten, stay at home, sleep it off, pick your nose & flick your bogeys. Big deal.

Carth

15-07-2021 17:31

Re: Coronavirus

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

Sephiroth

15-07-2021 17:53

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36086348)

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

What the heck is "Man Flu"? Is it a flu that women can't catch from a man? Of course not. Most flus are awful.

I get flu very, very rarely - and it is awful. It's honeyed Swedish whisky for me when I get even close to flu symptoms!

OLD BOY

15-07-2021 17:55

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36086348)

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

‘Man flu’ is a heavy cold and a brilliant excuse for a few days off!

1andrew1

15-07-2021 18:08

Re: Coronavirus

Interesting Tweet from epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski at the London School of Tropical Medicine:

Quote:

Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'.

Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission.

In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population.

If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. This leads to three possibilities:

If herd immunity through vaccination alone not possible, need to either:
A) keep some control measures in place indefinitely,
B) prepare for exit wave as measures relaxed

We explored these ideas more in our (pre-Delta) paper earlier this year, with https://eurosurveillance.org/content....26.20.2100428 5/5

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski

TheDaddy

15-07-2021 18:19

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36086350)

Man flu is the worst you can get, it's often fatal unless you get complete peace and rest, you've clearly never had it or you'd already know this, women can't catch it you are correct and that's why they're often required to care for the man, fetching things from the kitchen, plumping pillows regularly and not nagging, that type of thing. Work of any kind is obviously a no no and if you have to phone in yourself I advise arching your back when making the call and saying hello in a very weak tone

papa smurf

15-07-2021 18:49

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36086356)

And if you get long man flu heaven help you.

Sephiroth

15-07-2021 18:52

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36086355)

Interesting Tweet from epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski at the London School of Tropical Medicine:

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski

Hmmm. Using that formula and accepting the 85% efficacy hypothesis, we get the following herd immunity threshold (H) against different R numbers.
___________________________________
E=0.85
R H
1.5 39%
2.0 59%
3.0 78%
4.0 88%
5.0 94%
6.0 98%

E=0.90
R H
1.5 37%
2.0 56%
3.0 74%
4.0 83%
5.0 89%
6.0 93%
___________________________________

As I recall, at the peak of the pandemic, R never rose higher than 3. Maybe someone knows different.

Project Fear again aptly noticed by Andrew.

Pierre

15-07-2021 18:59

Re: Coronavirus

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

Sephiroth

15-07-2021 19:02

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36086365)

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

I'm currently in Wokingham and ditto.

Carth

15-07-2021 19:04

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36086365)

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

North Yorks coast was almost the same a few weeks ago . . otherwise my suntan 'shadow' would have been much worse :D

Enjoy the break Pierre :tu:

spiderplant

15-07-2021 21:17

Re: Coronavirus

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36086363)

As I recall, at the peak of the pandemic, R never rose higher than 3. Maybe someone knows different.

R0 of the original WuFlu (which never really impacted the UK) was between 2.4 and 2.6.
R0 of the Italian skiing variant was 3.
R0 of Delta is between 5 and 8.

Welcome to evolution!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

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