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1andrew1 15-03-2021 19:05
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36074372)
But in a contract of this sort, it would have been "best endeavours", due to all the unknowns - the EU can’t manage the contract between AZ and Halix.

There could be no reasonable mitigation, as the only mitigation would be to build another production line, which could have exactly the same issues...
To me, the mitigation was
- Multiple production sites.
- A portfolio approach to the vaccines procurement.

Relevant to remember that AstraZeneca was and is selling the vaccine to the world on a non-profit basis too.

Chris 15-03-2021 19:12
Re: Coronavirus
 
Is Europe's AstraZeneca jab decision-making flawed?

(Spoiler alert: yes, it is).

Quote:
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in understanding risk at Cambridge University, says it shows that sometimes you have to be bold in your decision-making.
'The precautionary principle can be a sensible way to make decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty.
"It favours inaction as a way of reducing risk. But the problem is that these are not normal times and inaction can be more risky than action."
What is needed in circumstances like these, according to Sir David, is to work out what is most likely on the balance of probability. That requires looking at both the direct and indirect evidence and the context those decisions are being made in.
"Making decisions when there is such uncertainty is incredibly difficult, but sometimes it can be harmful to wait for certainty. Not vaccinating people will costs lives."

Sephiroth 15-03-2021 19:38
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36074372)
But in a contract of this sort, it would have been "best endeavours", due to all the unknowns - the EU can’t manage the contract between AZ and Halix.

There could be no reasonable mitigation, as the only mitigation would be to build another production line, which could have exactly the same issues...
That still doesn't justify that the EC did not perform adequate project management risk analysis.

You are right that there would be little by way of mitigation that they could engineer - but then they shouldn't have been so "how wonderful we are" if they couldn't know that the hoped for result might not materialise.

To my mind the term "best reasonable efforts" was the clue and I, as a project manager, would report major risks to my sponsors unless the assurances were satisfactory.

But you know all this, of course. Yes?



---------- Post added at 18:36 ---------- Previous post was at 18:34 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36074376)
To me, the mitigation was
- Multiple production sites.
- A portfolio approach to the vaccines procurement.

Relevant to remember that AstraZeneca was and is selling the vaccine to the world on a non-profit basis too.
I refer you to my reply to Hugh. Multiple production sites that were not yet available at contract signing is a great red flag to the likes of me and no mitigation at all.

The portfolio approach yielded little as well.

Why are you defending those fools (again)?


---------- Post added at 18:38 ---------- Previous post was at 18:36 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36074379)
Is Europe's AstraZeneca jab decision-making flawed?

Quote:
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in understanding risk at Cambridge University, says it shows that sometimes you have to be bold in your decision-making.

'The precautionary principle can be a sensible way to make decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty.
"It favours inaction as a way of re
ducing risk. But the problem is that these are not normal times and inaction can be more risky than action."
What is needed in circumstances like these, according to Sir David, is to work out what is most likely on the balance of probability. That requires looking at both the direct and indirect evidence and the context those decisions are being made in.

"Making decisions when there is such uncertainty is incredibly difficult, but sometimes it can be harmful to wait for certainty. Not vaccinating people will costs lives."
(Spoiler alert: yes, it is).
See the EU for details.

1andrew1 15-03-2021 21:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36074382)
[COLOR="Blue"]
I refer you to my reply to Hugh. Multiple production sites that were not yet available at contract signing is a great red flag to the likes of me and no mitigation at all.

The portfolio approach yielded little as well.

Why are you defending those fools (again)?
No sites were available to anyone in August when they contracted with AstraZeneca for an unproven vaccination. I'm sure Norway, Iceland, EU, UK, etc all understood the risks.

Jonbxx has neatly explained the processes. I hope that when you have had time to reflect upon his posts, you will be able to adjust your your perspectives to fully appreciate his insight.

(But we'd both better avoid going backwards and forwards too much as we'll bore the forum. :D)

Sephiroth 15-03-2021 21:58
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36074399)
No sites were available to anyone in August when they contracted with AstraZeneca for an unproven vaccination. I'm sure Norway, Iceland, EU, UK, etc all understood the risks.

Jonbxx has neatly explained the processes. I hope that when you have had time to reflect upon his posts, you will be able to adjust your your perspectives to fully appreciate his insight.

(But we'd both better avoid going backwards and forwards too much as we'll bore the forum. :D)
Jon's insights were replied to thus:

Quote:
I see your point, which boils down to AZ made commitments they couldn't keep. That is still a feared event that the EC should have examined. An unenforceable contract is of little use. Contingency would normally be built in for late delivery. A clause that says "the EC to be notified if a contracted delivery cannot be made" is a stable door analogy.

They fupped in spades.
I'll leave it at that because we are going round in circles.

Damien 16-03-2021 12:53
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36074346)
It's a serious political failure amongst some of the most influential national leaders in the EU, worst of all Macron himself in France. They were so busy traducing the AstraZeneca vaccine in retaliation for being told they couldn't have as much of it as they wanted, they have caused public scepticism and arguably now enabled regulatory over-caution in the face of 'evidence' that might - just might - justify briefly pausing use of a medicine in normal times, in the absence of a massive, readily available data set to compare their domestic experience with.

Of course in the case of the AstraZeneca vaccine there is data from something like 12 million people and counting that says there's no evidence of a causal link with blood clots, plus a deliberate study of its safety in Finland that likewise determines it is as safe as the UK's MHRA, the EMA and WHO have said all along. The medicines regulators all over Europe are fiddling while Rome burns, and later this year they'll all be locked down again while we're increasingly getting back to normal. Their desire for self-flagellation is bizarre.
The worst thing about it is that anti-vax sentiment is really hard to stop once you've set it running. If you've undermined faith not only in the vaccines but by extension the health experts who've developed, tested and recommended them then you can't easily fix it. A reassuring statement from your health regulator won't do anything because these are the same people whose advice and findings you've already told people to dismiss. As with all conspiratory thinking the very people best placed to debunk people's concerns and theories are part of the problem. Macron has undermined the very institutions he is going to later depend on to encourage an already vaccine sceptical public to take up the jab. :rolleyes:

It's the same problem as MMR. One dodgy study undermined faith in vaccines for over a decade purely because its findings were promoted by papers like the Daily Mail and Private Eye who portrayed the efforts of regulators and the NHS to ally fears as part of an establishment stitch-up.

tweetiepooh 16-03-2021 13:11
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36074446)
The worst thing about it is that anti-vax sentiment is really hard to stop once you've set it running. If you've undermined faith not only in the vaccines but by extension the health experts who've developed, tested and recommended them then you can't easily fix it. A reassuring statement from your health regulator won't do anything because these are the same people whose advice and findings you've already told people to dismiss. As with all conspiratory thinking the very people best placed to debunk people's concerns and theories are part of the problem. Macron has undermined the very institutions he is going to later depend on to encourage an already vaccine sceptical public to take up the jab. :rolleyes:

It's the same problem as MMR. One dodgy study undermined faith in vaccines for over a decade purely because its findings were promoted by papers like the Daily Mail and Private Eye who portrayed the efforts of regulators and the NHS to ally fears as part of an establishment stitch-up.
It's because it's the sort of new/report that people want to believe. They want to believe that someone, somewhere is doing something dodgy and it then takes the emphasis off themselves.

GrimUpNorth 16-03-2021 13:47
Re: Coronavirus
 
As long as the UK doesn't jump on the stupid suspension bandwagon before the end of the week - I'm booked in at 9:10 am on Thursday and will be pretty fed up if the wheels drop off before then.

Chris 16-03-2021 14:03
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth (Post 36074449)
As long as the UK doesn't jump on the stupid suspension bandwagon before the end of the week - I'm booked in at 9:10 am on Thursday and will be pretty fed up if the wheels drop off before then.
There’s no chance of that happening. The evidence simply doesn’t support it. You’ll get your jab as scheduled.

jonbxx 16-03-2021 17:03
Re: Coronavirus
 
It's looking good for over 50s soon - https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ov...-jabbed-915170

Got my sleeve rolled up already!

nomadking 16-03-2021 20:08
Re: Coronavirus
 
Really don't get the EU mentality of, Germany makes a certain decision, so everybody else has to follow suit. How about France, Italy, etc looking after the interests of their own people, rather than having to follow Germany.

Sephiroth 16-03-2021 20:20
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074481)
Really don't get the EU mentality of, Germany makes a certain decision, so everybody else has to follow suit. How about France, Italy, etc looking after the interests of their own people, rather than having to follow Germany.
Look what happened to them 80 years ago! Germany won the war.

But you're right - I'm convinced it's a politically driven situation aimed at two fingers to the UK. Well I would, wouldn't I?

What do the Remainers think?

pip08456 16-03-2021 20:29
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074481)
Really don't get the EU mentality of, Germany makes a certain decision, so everybody else has to follow suit. How about France, Italy, etc looking after the interests of their own people, rather than having to follow Germany.
And so it continues...

Quote:
This morning Sweden has become the latest European country to suspend use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine. It follows reports that some people have suffered blood clots after being given the jab despite AstraZeneca's data showing there have only been 37 such reports among the 17 million people across Europe who have been given the vaccine.

Yet while some European health ministries across the continent are raising concerns about its effectiveness, others are lambasting AstraZeneca for failing to deliver enough jabs. French Europe minister Clement Beaune appeared on Radio Classique this morning and raised the prospect of the EU actually suing the company over breach of contract. Citing lower-than-expected deliveries, he claimed: 'Europe is not going to be some sort of cuddly 'care bear' that hands over its money and then expects nothing in return.' ...

...Friday 12 March: The International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis, representing medical experts around the world, says that ‘the small number of reported thrombotic events relative to the millions of administered Covid-19 vaccinations does not suggest a direct link.’
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...plete-timeline

Oh look.

Quote:
Russia 'Reaches Agreement' On Sputnik Vaccine With Firms From Italy, Spain, France, And Germany
https://www.rferl.org/a/31151688.html

1andrew1 16-03-2021 20:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074481)
Really don't get the EU mentality of, Germany makes a certain decision, so everybody else has to follow suit. How about France, Italy, etc looking after the interests of their own people, rather than having to follow Germany.
Those sovereign nations like non-EU nations Iceland and Norway have come to their own independent decisions and believe that they're putting their populations' interests first. I believe that they've all made very bad decisions and I hope they follow they follow EU and WHO advice and resume using the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Hugh 16-03-2021 22:15
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074481)
Really don't get the EU mentality of, Germany makes a certain decision, so everybody else has to follow suit. How about France, Italy, etc looking after the interests of their own people, rather than having to follow Germany.
One small problem with your statement - three other countries did it first...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56412784
Quote:
Some 13 European countries have paused their use of the vaccine. Denmark was first, followed by Norway and Iceland. Germany, France, Italy, Cyprus, Spain, Latvia and Sweden are the latest to follow suit.

On Monday, the three largest EU members - Germany, France and Italy - said they were awaiting the results of the EMA investigation before deciding whether to resume their rollout of the jab.

They said they had opted to pause their use of the drug as a "precautionary measure".
I think they’re wrong in doing what they’re doing, but they’re not "following Germany".

nomadking 16-03-2021 22:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Link

Quote:
ROME (Reuters) - The decision by Germany, France and Italy to suspend AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 shots after several countries reported possible serious side-effects is a “political one”, the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA said on Tuesday.
“We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations... to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told daily la Repubblica in an interview.

1andrew1 16-03-2021 23:14
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074494)
AstraZeneca is an Anglo-Swedish company so why has Sweden banned it? :confused:

GrimUpNorth 16-03-2021 23:25
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36074499)
AstraZeneca is an Anglo-Swedish company so why has Sweden banned it? :confused:
Because they're part of the big conspiracy to show those blighters in blighty who's boss and make us tow the line ;).

Pierre 16-03-2021 23:26
Re: Coronavirus
 
I’m just enjoying the Schadenfreude. They are just gluttons for flumping themselves up the asp.

The attempts to discredit the AZ vaccine have been front and centre, why? Who knows, petulance? The issue is science and data is absolute and as before you will be made to look stupid.

We’ll just keep rolling on here and get the job done.

1andrew1 16-03-2021 23:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074502)
I’m just enjoying the Schadenfreude. They are just gluttons for flumping themselves up the asp.

The attempts to discredit the AZ vaccine have been front and centre, why? Who knows, petulance? The issue is science and data is absolute and as before you will be made to look stupid.

We’ll just keep rolling on here and get the job done.
Does it not go far deeper? AstraZeneca' skills in navigating the numerous regulatory bodies' requirements appear to have been weaker than its peers. This shows in the lack of approval from countries like Switzerland and the USA which feeds through into general confidence levels by other countries where the vaccine has been approved.

Chris 17-03-2021 00:12
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36074503)
Does it not go far deeper? AstraZeneca' skills in navigating the numerous regulatory bodies' requirements appear to have been weaker than its peers. This shows in the lack of approval from countries like Switzerland and the USA which feeds through into general confidence levels by other countries where the vaccine has been approved.
AstraZeneca lacks experience in vaccine development, which is probably what's behind the inconsistencies in their phase 3 trials, which in turn led to a poorer data set that some regulators wanted to take longer to read over. Had we not been in a pandemic, and had they had the luxury of time, these shortcomings would most likely have been spotted and corrected long before any data was sent for approval.

Again, had we not been in a pandemic, the precautionary principle would absolutely favour the cautious approach shown by some national regulators. However, there is a very strong argument for saying these regulators have failed to adjust their decision-making processes to allow for the fact that we are in a pandemic in which significant numbers of people are getting very sick and dying. Even in the face of weaker efficacy data there was ample phase 2 data that amounted to indirect evidence of efficacy - the UK regulator's approach was that in these circumstances, the indirect evidence was sufficient.

The broo-ha-ha in many European countries now appears to be an unholy combination of inadequate decision making processes (still sticking doggedly to the precautionary principle, despite evidence that slowing the vaccination programme will kill more people) and regulatory over-caution thanks to the calculated political vandalism perpetrated by a few very well-placed politicians like Emmanuel Macron, a few weeks ago when the UK's successful programme needed taking down a peg or two because it was showing up the EU. As Damien observed earlier, once you let the anti-vax genie out of the bottle it is very difficult to get it back in, and I think some politicians and regulators are now over-thinking every step as they try to persuade their populations that getting vaccinated is safer than not doing so.

Mr K 17-03-2021 08:41
Re: Coronavirus
 
I see Mr Trump is now recommending his believers get the jab. Probably worried about them not surviving to the next election...
Tbh you'd have to be quite thick not to get the jab and even thicker to change your mind because Donny says so !

Hugh 17-03-2021 09:04
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36074506)
AstraZeneca lacks experience in vaccine development, which is probably what's behind the inconsistencies in their phase 3 trials, which in turn led to a poorer data set that some regulators wanted to take longer to read over. Had we not been in a pandemic, and had they had the luxury of time, these shortcomings would most likely have been spotted and corrected long before any data was sent for approval.

Again, had we not been in a pandemic, the precautionary principle would absolutely favour the cautious approach shown by some national regulators. However, there is a very strong argument for saying these regulators have failed to adjust their decision-making processes to allow for the fact that we are in a pandemic in which significant numbers of people are getting very sick and dying. Even in the face of weaker efficacy data there was ample phase 2 data that amounted to indirect evidence of efficacy - the UK regulator's approach was that in these circumstances, the indirect evidence was sufficient.

The broo-ha-ha in many European countries now appears to be an unholy combination of inadequate decision making processes (still sticking doggedly to the precautionary principle, despite evidence that slowing the vaccination programme will kill more people) and regulatory over-caution thanks to the calculated political vandalism perpetrated by a few very well-placed politicians like Emmanuel Macron, a few weeks ago when the UK's successful programme needed taking down a peg or two because it was showing up the EU. As Damien observed earlier, once you let the anti-vax genie out of the bottle it is very difficult to get it back in, and I think some politicians and regulators are now over-thinking every step as they try to persuade their populations that getting vaccinated is safer than not doing so.
:clap::clap::clap::clap:

jfman 17-03-2021 10:28
Re: Coronavirus
 
I see Northern Ireland which completed (both doses) to care homes at the start of February have had a reduction in deaths as a proportion of all deaths and recorded 0 in w/e 5th of March.

Meanwhile in England/Wales care home deaths stick doggedly to around 22% of all deaths every week since January to the same date. When is that expected to come down based on the dosing strategy? Will it be after the second dose I wonder...

jonbxx 17-03-2021 10:48
Re: Coronavirus
 
Vaccinations now available for everyone over 50 now! Fill your boots my middle aged friends - https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/corona...s-vaccination/

Booked my jab for a week on Monday with a second dose in June. Could have had the jab next week but the parking at the centre offered is really bad

Mr K 17-03-2021 11:57
Re: Coronavirus
 
They finally got round to the young people :)

A drop of the dodgy AZN stuff for me, I am a shareholder so they need my support ;)

Pierre 17-03-2021 13:50
Re: Coronavirus
 
Von der Leyen throwing her toys out the pram again, all over a vaccine that no one in the EU wants............................................. .......

The problems in the EU are all down to AZ.

From Sky News:

Quote:
She adds that AstraZeneca has "underproduced and underdelivered".

She appears to blame the company once again for delays to the EU's vaccine programme.
Quote:
Ms von dey Leyen says there is the "crest of a third wave forming in member states" and refers to the increasing numbers of new variants.
Quote:
Ursula von der Leyen hints very strongly that the EU could block vaccine exports to the UK.

Here are the relevant comments:

"Open roads run in both directions and this is why we need to ensure that there is reciprocity and proportionality

"I want to be clear on reciprocity. If the situation does not change, we will have to reflect on how to make exports to vaccine-producing countries dependent on their level of openness.

"We are exporting a lot to countries that are themselves producing vaccines and we think this is an invitation to be open, so we also see exports from them coming back to the European Union.

"The second point that is of importance for us, we will reflect on whether exports to countries who have higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate."
Quote:
She says that the AstraZeneca contract refers to two production sites in the UK "for potential deliveries to the EU".

"We are still waiting for doses to come from the UK, so this is an invitation to show us that there are also doses from the UK coming to the European Union," she adds.

These remarks now making it very clear who the previous threats were being directed at.
One journalist nails it.

Quote:
The commission is asked why it is effectively sparking a "vaccine war" with the UK over exports of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, given that large numbers of doses are laying unused in some member states due to fears over side-effects.

It is suggested her remarks are designed to distract from the bloc's sluggish rollout of vaccines.

"I trust AstraZeneca, I trust the vaccines," Ms Von der Leyen insists.

Chris 17-03-2021 14:09
Re: Coronavirus
 
Her butt is on the line and she’s desperately trying to deflect attention from the mess she has presided over - including the slackly worded contract with AZ. She has by now accepted she has no contractual right to AZ vaccines from the UK and is trying to turn it into a governmental issue. I.e. the UK government could, and should, be doing something to see vaccines shipped to the EU. This is of course based the fact that Pfizer vaccines are being shipped to the UK from the EU - though Von Der Lying appears to want to give the impression that this is down to EU largesse rather than a commercial supplier fulfilling their contract. There is no basis in contract, in law or in treaty for what she’s demanding.

And, of course, the real problem in the EU right now is member states bizarre, ongoing refusal to use the AZ doses they already have.

Sephiroth 17-03-2021 14:16
Re: Coronavirus
 
Perhaps we can trade 1 million does for 2 years' grace extension period.

1andrew1 17-03-2021 14:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Ursula Von der Leyen is doing more to discredit the EU in four minutes than Farage has done in 40 years!

Now that Jeremy Corbyn has stepped down as BoJo's useful idiot, she seems to have stepped into his shoes and made it her own!

Carth 17-03-2021 15:12
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36074548)
Perhaps we can trade 1 million does for 2 years' grace extension period.
. . or for more fish, everyone wants fish . . and lobster . . and car parts :p:

Hugh 17-03-2021 19:10
Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56435549

Quote:
The NHS has written to local health organisations warning of a "significant reduction in weekly supply" of coronavirus vaccines from the week beginning 29 March for a month.

It says there has been a "reduction in national inbound vaccines supply".
It also says organisations should "ensure no further appointments are uploaded to the national booking system or local booking system" in April.

The BBC understands no one who has booked a vaccine should lose a slot.
Asked about the letter, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said "vaccine supply is always lumpy", and added that the NHS regularly sent out "technical letters" explaining the "ups and downs" of supply.

The BBC's politics editor Laura Kuenssberg has been told that fewer AstraZeneca vaccines are available than expected.
Quote:
It is unclear what has caused this drop in supply from 29 March. Government sources are suggesting the amount produced by manufacturers is below the expected yields.

Vaccine production is a biological process so you cannot guarantee just how much is grown.
I wonder if "adequate project management risk analysis" was undertaken?

Honestly, I think this sort of thing will re-occur, as it’s a new complex process, and bumps on the road are to be expected - here’s hoping it won’t delay inoculation to the under-50s by much.

Carth 17-03-2021 19:40
Re: Coronavirus
 
Apparently the EU have loads they don't want, mebbe we can have that :p:

1andrew1 17-03-2021 19:41
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36074585)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56435549

I wonder if "adequate project management risk analysis" was undertaken?

Honestly, I think this sort of thing will re-occur, as it’s a new complex process, and bumps on the road are to be expected - here’s hoping it won’t delay inoculation to the under-50s by much.
Also, there is no vaccine hanging around in the UK to smooth out the peaks and troughs of manufacturing, which I assume would be the case with other vaccines.

papa smurf 17-03-2021 19:43
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36074590)
Apparently the EU have loads they don't want, mebbe we can have that :p:
They might not want it but they also don't want anyone else to have it.

Carth 17-03-2021 19:45
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36074592)
They might not want it but they also don't want anyone else to have it.
oh yeah :(

jfman 17-03-2021 19:47
Re: Coronavirus
 
Leaked figures in January pointed to the UK getting around 11 million AZ and 4 million Pfizer in April. Be interesting to see what the actual outputs are.

If you were as cynical as I am, and you wanted to suspend the vaccine rollout for safety reasons except to people who have already not had an adverse reaction to the first dose, I’d maybe suggest this is a mechanism to do it. ;)

Sephiroth 17-03-2021 20:47
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36074590)
Apparently the EU have loads they don't want, mebbe we can have that :p:
I wouldn't touch it with Hugh's. Might be the bad batch.

pip08456 17-03-2021 20:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36074599)
I wouldn't touch it with Hugh's. Might be the bad batch.
We don't need to.

Quote:
“The UK has ordered 100 million doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, of which 10 million doses will come from the Serum Institute of India,” a UK government spokesperson told Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKCN2AV0A2

Meanwhile.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwshS5UX...pg&name=medium

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EwshS5bW...pg&name=medium

nomadking 17-03-2021 21:22
Re: Coronavirus
 
I don't know whether it's still the case, but it should be pointed out to the EU that a key component of the Pfizer vaccine is produced in the UK. They are dependent on us.
Link

Quote:
Croda is to play a vital role in the production of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine.
The East Yorkshire headquartered specialty chemical company has entered into an agreement with the US giant to supply a new ingredient that carries the active element into the body.
It will be produced at sites in the UK and US.

Angua 18-03-2021 08:30
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36074531)
They finally got round to the young people :)

A drop of the dodgy AZN stuff for me, I am a shareholder so they need my support ;)
A lot of younger people (teens & early 20s) were queuing for the AZ jab at my GPs yesterday. They seem to be focusing on young carers and those with underlying conditions.

Hugh 18-03-2021 09:01
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074601)
We don't need to.

Quote:
“The UK has ordered 100 million doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, of which 10 million doses will come from the Serum Institute of India,” a UK government spokesperson told Reuters.
https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSKCN2AV0A2

Meanwhile.
About that...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56438629


Quote:
India shortfall behind UK vaccine supply delay

An expected reduction in the UK's Covid vaccine supply next month is due to a delay in the delivery of five million Oxford-AstraZeneca doses from India. The shipment - produced by the Serum Institute of India - has been held up by four weeks, the BBC has been told. The Department of Health is insisting it is still on track to offer a first dose to all adults by the end of July - however the NHS in England has since been told not to offer jabs to younger age groups throughout April. The Serum Institute, the world's largest manufacturer of vaccines which has agreed to supply 10 million doses for the UK, has delivered half of those and it will "try to supply more later, based on the current situation and the requirement for the government immunisation programme in India".
Sounds like they are prioritising internal customers over their contract with us...

jonbxx 18-03-2021 09:59
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36074607)
I don't know whether it's still the case, but it should be pointed out to the EU that a key component of the Pfizer vaccine is produced in the UK. They are dependent on us.
Link
And vice versa. Lots of raw materials used in the AZ vaccine production are EU sourced.

The big wrinkle in the whole thing is the US Defence Production Act and Operation Warp Speed stopping export of raw materials from the US if they might be needed for vaccine production domestically. It's causing some real headaches in the industry out side of the US

Pierre 18-03-2021 10:14
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074636)
And vice versa. Lots of raw materials used in the AZ vaccine production are EU sourced.
And whilst everybody talks about supply and demand, it is exactly what the EU want everybody to do. The issues the EU are having is nothing to do with supply, they have enough vaccines. Their issue is deployment, not supply.

jfman 18-03-2021 10:44
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074638)
And whilst everybody talks about supply and demand, it is exactly what the EU want everybody to do. The issues the EU are having is nothing to do with supply, they have enough vaccines. Their issue is deployment, not supply.
Is it?

Last I checked although it was a few weeks ago the total numbers of vaccines not administered (Vs delivered) in Germany was about 4 or 5 days worth (and some of these are likely to be being held back for second doses).

I'd be surprised if we didn't have a few days stock lying around somewhere.

jonbxx 18-03-2021 11:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074638)
And whilst everybody talks about supply and demand, it is exactly what the EU want everybody to do. The issues the EU are having is nothing to do with supply, they have enough vaccines. Their issue is deployment, not supply.
Oh there are definitely issues in raw material supply. One of the biggies bizarrely are big sterile bags.

This link from the FT might work or hit a paywall. If it hits a paywall, Google 'Shortage of giant plastic bags threatens global vaccines rollout'

Sephiroth 18-03-2021 11:43
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074645)
Oh there are definitely issues in raw material supply. One of the biggies bizarrely are big sterile bags.

This link from the FT might work or hit a paywall. If it hits a paywall, Google 'Shortage of giant plastic bags threatens global vaccines rollout'

1. China will win again!

2. Who wanted to get rid of plastic?

jonbxx 18-03-2021 12:04
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36074646)

1. China will win again!

2. Who wanted to get rid of plastic?
Oh yes, the whole biopharmaceutical industry is going over to single use plastics just at the time when everyone else is going away from them :)

Not recyclable either....

* there are some very good reasons why single use plastics are the way forward including higher productivity, lower water use and carbon footprint especially if you look at energy from waste power stations. It's not a good look though...

Mick 18-03-2021 13:15
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074638)
And whilst everybody talks about supply and demand, it is exactly what the EU want everybody to do. The issues the EU are having is nothing to do with supply, they have enough vaccines. Their issue is deployment, not supply.
I did not think the corrupted EU could sink any lower, but it’s new leadership in the form of Ursula and she’s the sober one compared to drunken Juncker, EU citizens should definitely voter her out, oh wait... :rolleyes:

Hom3r 18-03-2021 13:23
Re: Coronavirus
 
This morning I booked my Covid-19 vaccination, only took a few minutes, its local and 9:20am Monday.

Maggy 18-03-2021 13:58
Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56440055

Quote:
The government is expecting deliveries of Moderna vaccines within the coming weeks, he tells MPs.

He says those who are awaiting second doses will not see a delay because of any supply issues.

In terms of vaccinating children, and the autumn vaccination programme, "neither of these are certain" and clinical trials are ongoing. It is not yet clear what kind of autumn booster programme for vaccination will be needed, he states.

Hugh 18-03-2021 14:24
Re: Coronavirus
 
Interesting point on today’s BBC 1pm News - part of the reasoning behind Germany being cautious about the AZ/O vaccine (waiting for the EMA review) was that the blood clotting issue was specifically about a rare form of blood clotting on the brain, which for the number of people who had the vaccine should have been 1, and was in fact 7.

I’ll look for a link.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...e-says-german/
Quote:
Link between cerebral blood clots and AstraZeneca vaccine 'not implausible', says German regulator

Number of a certain type of blood clot was 'statistically significantly higher' than the expected figure, the regulator said.

As of March 15, seven people in Germany had suffered a severe cerebral venous thrombosis, known as thrombocytopenia, between four and 16 days of receiving the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab. Three of these people have since died.

According to a statistical analysis carried out by the regulator just one person would have been expected to suffer this event out of the 1.6 million people in Germany who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine.

"The number of these cases after vaccination with [the AstraZeneca vaccine] is statistically significantly higher than the number of cerebral venous thromboses that normally occur in the unvaccinated population,” the report states.

"All experts agreed unanimously that a pattern could be discerned here and that a connection between the reported above-mentioned diseases and the vaccination with Covid-19 vaccine AstraZeneca was not implausible,” it added.

Cerebral venous thrombosis is much rarer than the deep vein thromboses or pulmonary embolisms reported by Denmark, Norway and Austria last week. It can lead to swelling in the brain and haemorrhage. The seven people - six of whom were women - who suffered the condition were aged between 20 and 50.
Non-paywall version from Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/article/heal...-idUSL8N2LE66B

pip08456 18-03-2021 14:38
Re: Coronavirus
 
Ah, using statistics which can prove anything you want. Forget science, just use statistics.

Hugh 18-03-2021 14:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
Statistics are what the efficacy of the vaccine and impact of side-effects are based on, so I’m not sure what your point is?

jonbxx 18-03-2021 15:14
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074673)
Ah, using statistics which can prove anything you want. Forget science, just use statistics.
You would love quantum mechanics then. Plenty of statistics there!

On the raw materials shortage, it looks like the US exports ban on those big plastic bags and filters might be the cause of the delays - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...4.cms?from=mdr

Carth 18-03-2021 15:18
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074679)
You would love quantum mechanics then. Plenty of statistics there!

On the raw materials shortage, it looks like the US exports ban on those big plastic bags and filters might be the cause of the delays - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...4.cms?from=mdr

Not to worry, I'm sure the Government are currently pushing through a lucrative deal with the CEO of the Cornish tin miner association to deliver thousands of perfectly safe and sterile plastic bags with filters ;)

pip08456 18-03-2021 15:48
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074679)
You would love quantum mechanics then. Plenty of statistics there!

On the raw materials shortage, it looks like the US exports ban on those big plastic bags and filters might be the cause of the delays - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...4.cms?from=mdr
Bring back carboys!

Quote:
Statistics are what the efficacy of the vaccine and impact of side-effects are based on, so I’m not sure what your point is?
Depends on what you want to show. 6 women as opposed to 17million. Were they on any other medication regime, etc, etc. Why only women? Can statistics answer that? Sorry one man as well.

Statiscally how safe is the AZ vaccine in your opinion???

Hugh 18-03-2021 15:53
Re: Coronavirus
 
Well, I had the AZ vaccine, so there's my opinion...

re your questions - that may be why the EMA is reviewing the incidents, to obtain answers...

pip08456 18-03-2021 15:59
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36074688)
Well, I had the AZ vaccine, so there's my opinion...

re your questions - that may be why the EMA is reviewing the incidents, to obtain answers...
Again, can statistics answer that?

jfman 18-03-2021 16:32
Re: Coronavirus
 
I think some are missing the point that it's entirely appropriate and their role to investigate such matters.

While side effects are extremely rare. Why only women? A very good question. Were they on any other medication? Another good question.

If we could narrow such things down deployment can continue in a safer manner than now around the world. Surely something everyone would want given we have another 60 million or so doses to issue ourselves plus any "new variant booster" launched in the autumn.

Chris 18-03-2021 16:47
Re: Coronavirus
 
There are two parallel questions really. 1. Should they investigate? (Obviously yes) and 2. Should they halt use while they investigate? (Depends).

In the present circumstances the precautionary principle is liable to kill more people than it saves. The number of people suffering these clots is vanishingly small. The number of people dying from them is even smaller. Covid itself is clearly the far greater and deadlier threat. Some national regulators seem to have inadequate investigative procedures for pandemic situations. Their basic premise (that it is safer to do nothing) is flawed.

The MHRA's far more sensible pandemic operating principle has been to allow use of the vaccine to continue while a thorough review of the evidence was conducted. It has now concluded that review and is unequivocal. There is no evidence of a causal link between the Ox-AZ vaccine and the cerebral thromboses reported to it (five of them, one fatal, from the 11 million vaccinations reviewed).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56447367

What will be interesting to see now, is how quickly those national regulators that have ordered suspensions, will lift them. The MHRA has shown how quickly this sort of work can be done when an emergency situation demands it. Somehow, I suspect the regulators in some other countries still haven't twigged that this is a public health emergency and that they need to start behaving accordingly.

1andrew1 18-03-2021 16:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36074693)
There are two parallel questions really. 1. Should they investigate? (Obviously yes) and 2. Should they halt use while they investigate? (Depends).

In the present circumstances the precautionary principle is liable to kill more people than it saves. The number of people suffering these clots is vanishingly small. The number of people dying from them is even smaller. Covid itself is clearly the far greater and deadlier threat. Some national regulators seem to have inadequate investigative procedures for pandemic situations. Their basic premise (that it is safer to do nothing) is flawed.

The MHRA's far more sensible pandemic operating principle has been to allow use of the vaccine to continue while a thorough review of the evidence was conducted. It has now concluded that review and is unequivocal. There is no evidence of a causal link between the Ox-AZ vaccine and the cerebral thromboses reported to it (five of them, one fatal, from the 11 million vaccinations reviewed).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56447367

What will be interesting to see now, is how quickly those national regulators that have ordered suspensions, will lift them. The MHRA has shown how quickly this sort of work can be done when an emergency situation demands it. Somehow, I suspect the regulators in some other countries still haven't twigged that this is a public health emergency and that they need to start behaving accordingly.
Great post. Too many regulators appear to be in business as usual mode and not doing the maths.

Sephiroth 18-03-2021 16:57
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36074693)
There are two parallel questions really. 1. Should they investigate? (Obviously yes) and 2. Should they halt use while they investigate? (Depends).

In the present circumstances the precautionary principle is liable to kill more people than it saves. The number of people suffering these clots is vanishingly small. The number of people dying from them is even smaller. Covid itself is clearly the far greater and deadlier threat. Some national regulators seem to have inadequate investigative procedures for pandemic situations. Their basic premise (that it is safer to do nothing) is flawed.

The MHRA's far more sensible pandemic operating principle has been to allow use of the vaccine to continue while a thorough review of the evidence was conducted. It has now concluded that review and is unequivocal. There is no evidence of a causal link between the Ox-AZ vaccine and the cerebral thromboses reported to it (five of them, one fatal, from the 11 million vaccinations reviewed).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56447367

What will be interesting to see now, is how quickly those national regulators that have ordered suspensions, will lift them. The MHRA has shown how quickly this sort of work can be done when an emergency situation demands it. Somehow, I suspect the regulators in some other countries still haven't twigged that this is a public health emergency and that they need to start behaving accordingly.
Exactly. What are those fools thinking? Haven't they done the maths? Something's very wrong with the foundations of their thinking.

jfman 18-03-2021 17:15
Re: Coronavirus
 
But what is the benefit in continuing to issue it for the EU?

AZ in the EU are miles behind in terms of deliveries and the bloc are months away from being in a position to meaningfully ease restrictions.

Right now the biggest (only?) real weapon in their arsenal is lockdown and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. A delay in issuing the AZ vaccine of a week to two weeks is neither here nor their for the vaccination programme as a whole.

The UK regulator isn't in the same boat, it's weighing up the ongoing availability of a large number of doses with inadequate contracts to meaningfully continue the vaccination programme as a whole. We'd be doing about 25% of the vaccinations throughout April if we were relying on Pfizer only. That puts the UK back months, hence the "it's safer to use it than not" is closer to black vs white.

Pierre 18-03-2021 17:16
Re: Coronavirus
 
Well they've signed it off now, so safe to use - until they find another reason not to use it.

Chris 18-03-2021 17:17
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36074696)
But what is the benefit in continuing to issue it for the EU?

AZ in the EU are miles behind in terms of deliveries and the bloc are months away from being in a position to meaningfully ease restrictions.

Right now the biggest (only?) real weapon in their arsenal is lockdown and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. A delay in issuing the AZ vaccine of a week to two weeks is neither here nor their for the vaccination programme as a whole.

The UK regulator isn't in the same boat, it's weighing up the ongoing availability of a large number of doses with inadequate contracts to meaningfully continue the vaccination programme as a whole. We'd be doing about 25% of the vaccinations throughout April if we were relying on Pfizer only. That puts the UK back months, hence the "it's safer to use it than not" is closer to black vs white.
None of that is within the remit of the national medicines regulators in any of the countries where decisions have been taken to pause rollout.

Unless you're suggesting that politicians in those countries are implementing decisions, and then using their regulators as cover to give an entirely different set of justifications? The regulators are not (or should not be) concerned with supply levels or other infection control measures. They should be concerned only with safety and efficacy.

Incidentally the EMA has also concluded its own review of the data, and states that the Ox-AZ vaccine is 'safe and effective.'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56440139

Sephiroth 18-03-2021 17:25
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074697)
Well they've signed it off now, so safe to use - until they find another reason not to use it.
But they couldn't run a press conference as the press couldn't hear them and vice versa at the questions stage. Some sort of brewery comes to my uncharitable mind.

Now it gets interesting. A newspaper somewhere will do the XS deaths maths arising from the vaccine pause.

jfman 18-03-2021 17:29
Re: Coronavirus
 
I'm not sure how, in a pandemic, a regulator is supposed to isolate supply from their decision making. The whole point is surely to reduce both prevalence and transmission across the population. A drug where supplies are unable to significantly do either must factor into whether the benefits outweigh the risks because the benefits and risks are intrinsically linked to what non-pharmaceutical are required.

As for politicians and regulators my cynicism knows no geographic bounds.

jonbxx 18-03-2021 17:52
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36074700)
I'm not sure how, in a pandemic, a regulator is supposed to isolate supply from their decision making. The whole point is surely to reduce both prevalence and transmission across the population. A drug where supplies are unable to significantly do either must factor into whether the benefits outweigh the risks because the benefits and risks are intrinsically linked to what non-pharmaceutical are required.

As for politicians and regulators my cynicism knows no geographic bounds.
This is why drug regulation is split up into strands. The first answers the question 'is the drug safe and effective'? This is the job of the MHRA, EMA, FDA, etc. The next questions is who can and can't have a drug, when and how? In most cases, the regulatory body such as the MHRA does this too. This is the Marketing Authorisation.

The third question is who are we going to give this to given the data of safety, effectiveness, side effects, costs, quality of life, etc. This is more a clinical decision. In the UK, NICE usually makes this decision though JCVI will in the case of vaccines.

My feeling is that the separation of these strands is important. With the safety and effectiveness being 'blind' and scientific and the clinical application being the more 'human' side.

Say for example, that the findings were that there was a slight increase in clotting issues. Then the Marketing Authorisation would be adjusted to state this and then the clinicians would take the risk/benefit decision. For example, if you have clotting issues, then the AZ vaccine is not the one for you.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just to add, investigating this was the right thing to do in my opinion. In vaccine sceptic groups, saying 'nah, it's fine' probably doesn't wash. Saying let's stop, have a look, check and act on the results is more likely to get past vaccine sceptics. Of course, it's not ideal as it slows down the roll out but one reports were out, it needed to be done

papa smurf 18-03-2021 17:57
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36074697)
Well they've signed it off now, so safe to use - until they find another reason not to use it.

Like they forgot to order it;)

Hom3r 18-03-2021 18:25
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074673)
Ah, using statistics which can prove anything you want. Forget science, just use statistics.

I can prove anything by statistics except the truth.George Canning



https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Canning

pip08456 18-03-2021 18:33
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074704)
This is why drug regulation is split up into strands. The first answers the question 'is the drug safe and effective'? This is the job of the MHRA, EMA, FDA, etc. The next questions is who can and can't have a drug, when and how? In most cases, the regulatory body such as the MHRA does this too. This is the Marketing Authorisation.

The third question is who are we going to give this to given the data of safety, effectiveness, side effects, costs, quality of life, etc. This is more a clinical decision. In the UK, NICE usually makes this decision though JCVI will in the case of vaccines.

My feeling is that the separation of these strands is important. With the safety and effectiveness being 'blind' and scientific and the clinical application being the more 'human' side.

Say for example, that the findings were that there was a slight increase in clotting issues. Then the Marketing Authorisation would be adjusted to state this and then the clinicians would take the risk/benefit decision. For example, if you have clotting issues, then the AZ vaccine is not the one for you.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Just to add, investigating this was the right thing to do in my opinion. In vaccine sceptic groups, saying 'nah, it's fine' probably doesn't wash. Saying let's stop, have a look, check and act on the results is more likely to get past vaccine sceptics. Of course, it's not ideal as it slows down the roll out but one reports were out, it needed to be done
But the statiscs! It's always about statistics!!!!

Carth 18-03-2021 19:13
Re: Coronavirus
 
34.38% of us hate statistics


. . . oooops

heero_yuy 18-03-2021 19:19
Re: Coronavirus
 
80% of all statistics are made up - Vic Reeves.

Hugh 18-03-2021 20:50
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074709)
But the statiscs! It's always about statistics!!!!
Or as scientists call it, evidence.

jonbxx 18-03-2021 20:52
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074709)
But the statiscs! It's always about statistics!!!!
Here you go, some statistics;

Quote:
However, based on pre-COVID figures it was calculated that less than 1 reported case of DIC might have been expected by 16 March among people under 50 within 14 days of receiving the vaccine, whereas 5 cases had been reported. Similarly, on average 1.35 cases of CVST might have been expected among this age group whereas by the same cut-off date there had been 12. A similar imbalance was not visible in the older population given the vaccine.
From todays EMA report - https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/co...re-blood-clots

So 5x higher risk of disseminated intravascular coagulation, DIC and just under 10x higher risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, CVST in vaccinated under 50s.

However, the conclusion is;

Quote:
The Committee was of the opinion that the vaccine’s proven efficacy in preventing hospitalisation and death from COVID-19 outweighs the extremely small likelihood of developing DIC or CVST. However, in the light of its findings, patients should be aware of the remote possibility of such syndromes, and if symptoms suggestive of clotting problems occur patients should seek immediate medical attention and inform healthcare professionals of their recent vaccination. Steps are already being taken to update the product information for the vaccine to include more information on these risks.
So there's a low risk of clotting but it's higher than background and worth the risk considering the risks of COVID infections

Sephiroth 18-03-2021 21:20
Re: Coronavirus
 
Maybe aspirin for a few days after the vaccine?

Mick 18-03-2021 21:56
Re: Coronavirus
 
France daily cases continue to spike, nearly 7 times that of the UK. France entered 3rd wave territory and extra measures are being implemented considered to be their THIRD lockdown.

Mr K 18-03-2021 22:07
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36074736)
France daily cases continue to spike, nearly 7 times that of the UK. France entered 3rd wave territory and extra measures are being implemented considered to be their THIRD lockdown.
It's not really a competition Mick. If it is, we're comfortably winning on the number of deaths in Europe, thanks to our Govt. delaying the necessary lockdown.

'Eat out to kill some people', what a wonderful initiative...

pip08456 18-03-2021 22:10
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36074726)
Here you go, some statistics;



From todays EMA report - https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/co...re-blood-clots

So 5x higher risk of disseminated intravascular coagulation, DIC and just under 10x higher risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, CVST in vaccinated under 50s.

However, the conclusion is;



So there's a low risk of clotting but it's higher than background and worth the risk considering the risks of COVID infections
Yet from the same report.

Quote:
the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it...

...The PRAC involved experts in blood disorders in its review, and worked closely with other health authorities including the UK’s MHRA which has experience with administration of this vaccine to around 11 million people. Overall the number of thromboembolic events reported after vaccination, both in studies before licensing and in reports after rollout of vaccination campaigns (469 reports, 191 of them from the EEA), was lower than that expected in the general population.

papa smurf 18-03-2021 22:14
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36074738)
It's not really a competition Mick. If it is, we're comfortably winning on the number of deaths in Europe, thanks to our Govt. delaying the necessary lockdown.

'Eat out to kill some people', what a wonderful initiative...
It aint over yet

Carth 18-03-2021 22:24
Re: Coronavirus
 
Starting to look like Paris in springtime is out

Caravan at Cleggy it is then :D

Mr K 18-03-2021 22:28
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36074749)
Starting to look like Paris in springtime is out

Caravan at Cleggy it is then :D
You could try the Samaritans, before resorting to Lincolnshire....

papa smurf 18-03-2021 22:29
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36074749)
Starting to look like Paris in springtime is out

Caravan at Cleggy it is then :D
book early:)

Hugh 18-03-2021 22:39
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074742)
Yet from the same report.

Quote:
the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it...

...The PRAC involved experts in blood disorders in its review, and worked closely with other health authorities including the UK’s MHRA which has experience with administration of this vaccine to around 11 million people. Overall the number of thromboembolic events reported after vaccination, both in studies before licensing and in reports after rollout of vaccination campaigns (469 reports, 191 of them from the EEA), was lower than that expected in the general population.
But the statiscs! It's always about statistics!!!! ;)

1andrew1 18-03-2021 23:59
Re: Coronavirus
 
Good news.
Quote:
Covid-19: EU states to resume AstraZeneca vaccine rollout

The EU's leading states are to restart their roll-out of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after Europe's medicines regulator concluded it was "safe and effective".

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) reviewed the jab after 13 EU states suspended use of the vaccine over fears of a link to blood clots.

It found the jab was "not associated" with a higher risk of clots.

Germany, France, Italy and Spain said they would resume using the jab.

It is up to individual EU states to decide whether and when to re-start vaccinations using the AstraZeneca vaccine. Sweden said it needed a "few days" to decide.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56440139

jfman 19-03-2021 00:08
Re: Coronavirus
 
The irony of herd immunity Sweden not wanting to take the risk.

Mick 19-03-2021 00:48
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36074767)
Not really, days of stupid scare mongering by the countries who suspended its use will have cost lives in delayed vaccinations and tarnished a vaccine brand, sowing hesitation in the minds of millions of people to get the jab, costing more lives. France now in a third lockdown in 16 areas of their country including Paris.

pip08456 19-03-2021 03:05
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36074771)
Not really, days of stupid scare mongering by the countries who suspended its use will have cost lives in delayed vaccinations and tarnished a vaccine brand, sowing hesitation in the minds of millions of people to get the jab, costing more lives. France now in a third lockdown in 16 areas of their country including Paris.
That's the problem Mick, the EU now has a population that won't trust the AZ vaccine. That unfortunately is a problem of their own making,

So much for statistics over science,

Paul 19-03-2021 05:59
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36074736)
France daily cases continue to spike, nearly 7 times that of the UK. France entered 3rd wave territory and extra measures are being implemented considered to be their THIRD lockdown.
Lets not forget the UK is already in its 3rd Lockdown (This one being the longest :().

jfman 19-03-2021 09:06
Re: Coronavirus
 
Indeed I'm not sure the UK is well placed to blame decision making elsewhere resulting in excess deaths when each lockdown we went into came a week, or more, after scientific advice was calling for it.

I know we aren't statistics fans but tens of thousands of deaths have been attributed to poor decision making. A few days delay in a vaccine rollout that's running behind schedule is neither here nor there by comparison.

jonbxx 19-03-2021 09:58
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36074742)
Yet from the same report.

Quote:
the vaccine is not associated with an increase in the overall risk of blood clots (thromboembolic events) in those who receive it...

...The PRAC involved experts in blood disorders in its review, and worked closely with other health authorities including the UK’s MHRA which has experience with administration of this vaccine to around 11 million people. Overall the number of thromboembolic events reported after vaccination, both in studies before licensing and in reports after rollout of vaccination campaigns (469 reports, 191 of them from the EEA), was lower than that expected in the general population.
It does say that, yes! Good spot! So, the number of clotting events overall is lower in total but elevated for certain subtypes. Definitely some more number crunching and science needs to be done here to understand why this is happening

Carth 19-03-2021 10:05
Re: Coronavirus
 
No need for statistics or science, just use common sense.

Majority of people given the vaccine are over 50.

People over 50 are 'probably' more at risk of developing a blood clot naturally

KISS

tweetiepooh 19-03-2021 12:47
Re: Coronavirus
 
Stats are always fun but especially where the numbers are small within larger sets.


So and increase in vaccine issues from 2 to 5 is a more than doubling but is still small compared to the numbers vaccinated.


Same with the increases in infections, as the numbers come down a small change gives a big percentage change.

Chris 19-03-2021 16:13
Re: Coronavirus
 
Monsieur Macron has sent his prime minister out to get an AstraZeneca jab on live TV. I'm pretty sure their German friends have a word for how I'm feeling right now. :rofl:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-5...ost_type=share

Damien 19-03-2021 16:29
Re: Coronavirus
 
Macron himself said a few weeks ago he would take it if offered as well. He has been very weird on the whole thing going back from saying some of the most outrageous statements on it to be one of the few prominent supporters of it in the EU. Unlike Germany who have seemed to just to have had a constant low-scale negative attitude to it.

pip08456 19-03-2021 19:16
Re: Coronavirus
 
You couldn't make this up!

Quote:
France has said only people aged 55 and over should receive the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine, and three Scandinavian countries have reserved judgment until next week, a day after Europe’s health regulator declared the shot safe and effective for all age groups.

jfman 19-03-2021 19:27
Re: Coronavirus
 
That's actually magnificent decision making by France, someone under 55 is extremely unlikely to die of Covid-19.

It's almost as if they're genuinely weighing up the risks vs benefits and moving their decision making with the evidence.

Chris 19-03-2021 19:38
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36074831)
That's actually magnificent decision making by France, someone under 55 is extremely unlikely to die of Covid-19.

It's almost as if they're genuinely weighing up the risks vs benefits and moving their decision making with the evidence.
Zeal of the convert, perhaps. Let’s not forget that nobody under 50 has had any vaccine in the UK for precisely the same reasons (with a few specific exceptions).

TheDaddy 20-03-2021 17:54
Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36074831)
That's actually magnificent decision making by France, someone under 55 is extremely unlikely to die of Covid-19.

It's almost as if they're genuinely weighing up the risks vs benefits and moving their decision making with the evidence.
It's almost the exact opposite of everything you've said, highly irresponsible, negligent and with potential consequences for not only their country but the entire planet


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