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-   -   Will Scotland Leave the UK? (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33684496)

mrmistoffelees 19-08-2021 08:50

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Not only does the Magna Carta not apply in Scotland, the particular clause that they were quoting was removed umm about eight hundred years ago. And, even when it was applicable the rights did not apply to all men.....


https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/...nburgh_castle/

silly people.....

1andrew1 19-08-2021 09:10

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees (Post 36090287)
Not only does the Magna Carta not apply in Scotland, the particular clause that they were quoting was removed umm about eight hundred years ago. And, even when it was applicable the rights did not apply to all men.....


https://www.theregister.com/2021/08/...nburgh_castle/

silly people.....

Reminiscent of the Covid protests outside those luxury flats in White City. :dunce:

1andrew1 20-08-2021 21:11

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Possibility of a referendum in 2023 rises.
Quote:

SNP-Greens deal pledges indyref2 within five years

The SNP and Scottish Greens have published details of their new power sharing arrangement.

The deal will take the Greens into government for the first time anywhere in the UK.

It includes a commitment to hold a referendum on Scottish independence within the next five years, and preferably by the end of 2023.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon gave details at a briefing alongside the two Scottish Greens co-leaders.

Opposition parties have described the arrangement as a "nationalist coalition of chaos" that will be a "disaster" for Scotland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-58272209

Carth 20-08-2021 21:16

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Would be great if a referendum happens :tu:

We could really do with another 'us & them' thread to argue about when Brexit fades away :D

Chris 20-08-2021 21:27

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
If they attempt it, it will be without transfer of powers and almost certainly subject to challenge in court. If they do go ahead, the unionist strategy will be to boycott. Without buy-in from the UK parliament, which is the only sovereign authority in constitutional matters, a yes vote is irrelevant - especially a 100% yes vote on a 30-40% turnout. There isn’t going to be a mutually recognised referendum and Scotland isn’t going to leave the UK. The UK government will respect the outcome of the once-in-a-generation referendum which the SNP called and lost in 2014, even if Nicola and her pet hippies won’t.

OLD BOY 21-08-2021 02:50

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I’m not a Scot, but I don’t believe that the majority of them would vote for separation.

1andrew1 21-08-2021 08:23

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090494)
I’m not a Scot, but I don’t believe that the majority of them would vote for separation.

Polling is currently slightly in favour of remaining in the UK but with a fair few undecided.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...h_independence

OLD BOY 21-08-2021 14:12

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Elections are largely won and lost according to the state of the economy, and trust in which party is best placed to manage it.

I have always said that opposition parties need to hammer home the financial realities of separation. If they do that forcefully enough, the Scots will not vote for independence.

1andrew1 21-08-2021 14:23

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090509)
Elections are largely won and lost according to the state of the economy, and trust in which party is best placed to manage it.

I have always said that opposition parties need to hammer home the financial realities of separation. If they do that forcefully enough, the Scots will not vote for independence.

That's what Remain tried in 2016.

Sometimes, sovereignty beats the wallet.

OLD BOY 21-08-2021 14:39

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090510)
That's what Remain tried in 2016.

Sometimes, sovereignty beats the wallet.

It wasn’t just sovereignty, Andrew. It was also the prospect of more trade with the rest of the world (not to mention freedom to control our own borders and everything else).

As a remainer, Andrew, you can only see what we lose from leaving the EU, without taking account of what we will gain. And as that gain cannot be seen at this stage of the transition, you assume there will not be one.

In time, you will see your mistake.

Chris 21-08-2021 14:45

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
We already have a thread for this. Please keep Brexit out of this thread, except for where it directly relates to the question of Scotland leaving the UK.

1andrew1 22-08-2021 10:46

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
For Scotland to run a consistently larger deficit than the UK average suggests structural issues at play in its economy. Have these been hidden by being part of a larger entity?

Would leaving the UK force Scotland to face up to these issues which it hasn't had needed to so far, thanks to generous Westminster funding?

nomadking 22-08-2021 13:05

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090553)
For Scotland to run a consistently larger deficit than the UK average suggests structural issues at play in its economy. Have these been hidden by being part of a larger entity?

Would leaving the UK force Scotland to face up to these issues which it hasn't had needed to so far, thanks to generous Westminster funding?

They are simply spending what they are being given. The real problem is that they are being given too much of English money.

In the same way that the poorer EU nations, are propped up by money from the richer EU nations. Eg Poland benefits by a staggering 13bn Euros of net EU funding, and yet their core economy doesn't seem to be improving well enough to need less EU money year on year.
The free money gives the false impression that their economy is doing better than it actually is. There is no pressure to improve that situation themselves.

1andrew1 22-08-2021 13:26

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36090563)
They are simply spending what they are being given. The real problem is that they are being given too much of English money.

In the same way that the poorer EU nations, are propped up by money from the richer EU nations. Eg Poland benefits by a staggering 13bn Euros of net EU funding, and yet their core economy doesn't seem to be improving well enough to need less EU money year on year.
The free money gives the false impression that their economy is doing better than it actually is. There is no pressure to improve that situation themselves.

So if Scotland leaves the UK, it will be under pressure to improve its situation then which would be good for Scotland in the long-term plus the remaining nations of the UK would no longer need to cross-fund it?

TheDaddy 22-08-2021 14:17

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090566)
So if Scotland leaves the UK, it will be under pressure to improve its situation then which would be good for Scotland in the long-term plus the remaining nations of the UK would no longer need to cross-fund it?

Exactly, they'd be so nimble and thrive no downsides for anyone

Chris 22-08-2021 15:57

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090566)
So if Scotland leaves the UK, it will be under pressure to improve its situation then which would be good for Scotland in the long-term plus the remaining nations of the UK would no longer need to cross-fund it?

That would be a decent précis of the Nat argument - plus, it neatly encompasses the typical evasion you get from them when they talk about Scotland making “different choices” without going into any sort of detail about exactly what those choices would look like.

Imagine, though, the arguments made against Brexit with regards to our loss of unfettered access to the EU single market. Now imagine those arguments made against Scotland’s loss of access to the single market within the UK. Again, standard Nat evasion is to point out that rejoining the EU would give Scotland access to a much larger single market, however (leaving aside the serious structural barriers to an independent Scotland joining the EU any time soon), there is an enormous difference between access to a single market and the proven ability to exploit that access. England may be a smaller market than the EU, but Scotland does vastly more trade with England than it does with the EU. Geography, history and a fully aligned economy all play their part in that.

So much of the Nat prospectus actually relies on the remaining UK rolling over and giving Scotland absolutely everything it wants in terms of access to the market and influence over monetary policy that their argument is holed below the waterline before it’s even off the slipway.

TheDaddy 22-08-2021 19:26

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090581)
That would be a decent précis of the Nat argument - plus, it neatly encompasses the typical evasion you get from them when they talk about Scotland making “different choices” without going into any sort of detail about exactly what those choices would look like.

Imagine, though, the arguments made against Brexit with regards to our loss of unfettered access to the EU single market. Now imagine those arguments made against Scotland’s loss of access to the single market within the UK. Again, standard Nat evasion is to point out that rejoining the EU would give Scotland access to a much larger single market, however (leaving aside the serious structural barriers to an independent Scotland joining the EU any time soon), there is an enormous difference between access to a single market and the proven ability to exploit that access. England may be a smaller market than the EU, but Scotland does vastly more trade with England than it does with the EU. Geography, history and a fully aligned economy all play their part in that.

So much of the Nat prospectus actually relies on the remaining UK rolling over and giving Scotland absolutely everything it wants in terms of access to the market and influence over monetary policy that their argument is holed below the waterline before it’s even off the slipway.

Yeah but sovereignty...

Chris 22-08-2021 19:54

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 36090599)
Yeah but sovereignty...

Indeed - it’s a powerful argument for some. Having lived here almost two decades it’s one I understand and (to an extent) buy into. When I visit England now it does at times feel (almost) foreign. :D

However I don’t think it’s a catch-all that trumps everything. In the case of the EU it’s not credible to claim the UK resigning membership is an economic calamity. We were a net contributor to the organisation and we are a major global economy more than able to make our own way in the world even if there are short term issues while we adjust.

In the case of Scotland vis a vis the UK, how patriotic is it really, to insist that Scottish sovereignty trumps all, in the face of the hard numbers published annually by the Scottish government itself that prove beyond doubt that removing Scotland from the UK would mandate savage reductions in state services?

Sephiroth 22-08-2021 20:22

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Well - being still a member I might as well post.

It's the word "sovereignty" and its implications that has spurred me (as it has Chris).

Scotland is a nation that united with England & Wales some hundreds of years ago to form the current union. The UK government has no democratic issue with Scotland leaving the UK; thus the sovereignty question was settled in the 2014 referendum. If the UK government wants to authorise another referendum, so be it (though I don't think they should be bullied by Sturgeon into doing it soon).

The embarrassment might come if Sturgeon holds an advisory referendum and there is a majority for independence. It would be democratically awkward for the UK government to refuse a binding referendum on a determined date.

My (arrogant) post of 17-July sets out some of the things that need to be settled before a referendum should take place - so that the Scots will know the score in advance.

Chris 22-08-2021 21:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090608)
Well - being still a member I might as well post.

It's the word "sovereignty" and its implications that has spurred me (as it has Chris).

Scotland is a nation that united with England & Wales some hundreds of years ago to form the current union. The UK government has no democratic issue with Scotland leaving the UK; thus the sovereignty question was settled in the 2014 referendum. If the UK government wants to authorise another referendum, so be it (though I don't think they should be bullied by Sturgeon into doing it soon).

The embarrassment might come if Sturgeon holds an advisory referendum and there is a majority for independence. It would be democratically awkward for the UK government to refuse a binding referendum on a determined date.

My (arrogant) post of 17-July sets out some of the things that need to be settled before a referendum should take place - so that the Scots will know the score in advance.

Your problem is illustrated by your use of “the Scots”, as if it’s a single homogeneous mass entirely, or largely, sealed off from the rest of the UK. For starters, 10% of “the Scots” are actually English. I’m one of them. Most (but by no means all of us) believe in the Union. All of us - that is, about half a million people - have an absolute right to move back to England if Scotland became independent and we didn’t like how it was turning out.

It is vastly unlikely that anybody born anywhere in the UK and living in Scotland - including people Scottish by birth - would lose the right to move and settle in England. That’s one enormous migrant crisis waiting right there if a grand experiment in Scottish nation building goes pear shaped. In fact there would inevitably be some movement simply on the basis of a Yes vote, most likely among more affluent and mobile families, making even harder for a newly independent Scotland to succeed. England simply can’t warn “the Scots” what will happen and then wash its hands of it. It will continue to have an interest in Scotland’s future, for good or ill.

Furthermore, Sturgeon’s great risk in holding an advisory referendum is that the unionist side simply boycotts it on the basis it wasn’t authorised by Westminster, following the precedent set, and agreed to, by the Nats in 2014. That gives the Nats a guaranteed massive majority, on a small turnout, which the UK government can paint as no more democratic than an average Monday in Minsk.

None of this is to say that the Nats won’t huff and puff and scream and scream and scream until they’re sick, but when it comes to it they are absolutely powerless to force anything to happen. The only thing ever likely to force a UK government to relent is a substantial, sustained lead in the polls, which the Nats have never had. Nicola knows this and in the past has voiced that view. She can’t voice it aloud any longer because she has enough opposition within the party to risk a leadership challenge if she starts looking like the Nat who doesn’t want independence.

Sephiroth 22-08-2021 21:40

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I think you're splitting hairs with me in your first paragraph. The rest makes perfect sense.

The term "Scots" in my meaning is those eligible to vote in a binding referendum. As simple as that. I can't see where I implied otherwise.

Chris 22-08-2021 21:49

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090616)
I think you're splitting hairs with me in your first paragraph. The rest makes perfect sense.

The term "Scots" in my meaning is those eligible to vote in a binding referendum. As simple as that. I can't see where I implied otherwise.

Then the problem is in your personal redefinition of commonly understood words. You implied as I described because of your decision to misuse the language. In two way communication it makes things simpler if you acknowledge and accept common definitions rather than insisting on your own.

In this case, “the Scots” is a plural, proper noun for those of a particular national identity. I am eligible to vote in a referendum held in Scotland but I am not, and will never be, one of “the Scots”. I am one of “the English”. This is not splitting hairs - it is categorically different and, as I’ve illustrated, it’s important that distinctiveness is understood because it has the capacity to cause a serious migrant crisis. It serves nobody to obfuscate that point.

Sephiroth 22-08-2021 22:01

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090618)
Then the problem is in your personal redefinition of commonly understood words. You implied as I described because of your decision to misuse the language. In two way communication it makes things simpler if you acknowledge and accept common definitions rather than insisting on your own.

In this case, “the Scots” is a plural, proper noun for those of a particular national identity. I am eligible to vote in a referendum held in Scotland but I am not, and will never be, one of “the Scots”. I am one of “the English”. This is not splitting hairs - it is categorically different and, as I’ve illustrated, it’s important that distinctiveness is understood because it has the capacity to cause a serious migrant crisis. It serves nobody to obfuscate that point.

You're going in hard on a very minor point. I am not a Scot so I can be forgiven for using the dictionary definition of "Scot".

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Scot - the other dictionaries say the same thing.

Quote:

Scot noun (1)

Definition of Scot (Entry 1 of 2)
1: a member of a Celtic people of northern Ireland settling in Scotland about a.d. 500
2a: a native or inhabitant of Scotland
b: a person of Scottish descent
Please allow me to put a question back to you. Would the average reader in this thread have reached a different conclusion had I used a different term from "Scots", or your preferred term now that you know what I meant by it?



Chris 22-08-2021 22:10

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090623)
You're going in hard on a very minor point. I am not a Scot so I can be forgiven for using the dictionary definition of "Scot".

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Scot - the other dictionaries say the same thing.



Please allow me to put a question back to you. Would the average reader in this thread have reached a different conclusion had I used a different term from "Scots", or your preferred term now that you know what I meant by it?



Multiple dictionaries of British English disagree with you.
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/di...y/english/scot
https://www.lexico.com/definition/scot
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dic...sh/scot?q=Scot

Sephiroth 22-08-2021 22:44

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090624)

I see. So it's your preferred dictionaries versus mine? This is getting silly. Btw, the OED (on my iPad) defines it as "a native of Scotland or person of Scottish descent".

Anyone reading my post knows exactly what is meant in context and it would be the same understanding if your preferred substituted word had been used.

Pierre 23-08-2021 09:50

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090629)
defines it as "a native of Scotland or person of Scottish descent".

That makes me a "Scot" then, My fathers place of birth on my Birth Certificate clearly states Scotland.

Can I have vote?

Sephiroth 23-08-2021 10:06

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36090647)
That makes me a "Scot" then, My fathers place of birth on my Birth Certificate clearly states Scotland.

Can I have vote?

What is all this nit-picking about? The word "Scot" is defined in the various dictionaries and what matters from my point of view is what I said earlier:

Quote:

My (arrogant) post of 17-July sets out some of the things that need to be settled before a referendum should take place - so that the Scots will know the score in advance.
There's nothing more to it. So why pick an argument about the term "Scot"? And especially no point in asking me which type of Scot will be given a referendum vote.

OLD BOY 23-08-2021 12:41

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I’m afraid that pedantry rules on this site, Seph.

I see now that the SNP/Greens alliance is being criticised for being a bonkers arrangement which many will not like and will end up making independence for Scotland less popular, demolishing Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a ‘successful’ referendum as she sees it.

The pressure that will be exerted by the Greens to stop relying on the oil fields will be a major blow to Scotland’s economic case for independence (even though the more thinking Scots appreciate that the plans to achieve carbon neutrality will make them uneconomic well before 2050).

Bonkers politics it is, then!

1andrew1 23-08-2021 12:55

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090676)
I’m afraid that pedantry rules on this site, Seph.

I see now that the SNP/Greens alliance is being criticised for being a bonkers arrangement which many will not like and will end up making independence for Scotland less popular, demolishing Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a ‘successful’ referendum as she sees it.

The pressure that will be exerted by the Greens to stop relying on the oil fields will be a major blow to Scotland’s economic case for independence (even though the more thinking Scots appreciate that the plans to achieve carbon neutrality will make them uneconomic well before 2050).

Bonkers politics it is, then!

I think most people - including the oil companies - believe that Scotland should stop relying on its oil fields.

Sephiroth 23-08-2021 13:57

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090676)
I’m afraid that pedantry rules on this site, Seph.

I see now that the SNP/Greens alliance is being criticised for being a bonkers arrangement which many will not like and will end up making independence for Scotland less popular, demolishing Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a ‘successful’ referendum as she sees it.

The pressure that will be exerted by the Greens to stop relying on the oil fields will be a major blow to Scotland’s economic case for independence (even though the more thinking Scots appreciate that the plans to achieve carbon neutrality will make them uneconomic well before 2050).

Bonkers politics it is, then!

Not just bonkers politics, btw.

Now which would that be? Residents of Scotland? Bon in Scotland? Scottish people living in England/Wales? I'm sure Chris would want to know.

OLD BOY 23-08-2021 15:54

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I’m beyond caring….

papa smurf 23-08-2021 16:09

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090700)
I’m beyond caring….

I have 2 sons 30 and 33 years old they both want Scotland to go as they are sick of paying for it and believe England will be much wealthier without the Scottish millstone around our necks, as for me i like the union.

Chris 23-08-2021 21:14

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Nicola Sturgeon insisting she wants a referendum while quietly sabotaging the process because she knows she can’t win it … surely not. :scratch:

1andrew1 23-08-2021 22:44

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090717)
Nicola Sturgeon insisting she wants a referendum while quietly sabotaging the process because she knows she can’t win it … surely not. :scratch:

She's a wily politician but I don't see how she's sabotaging the process.

Chris 23-08-2021 22:50

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090728)
She's a wily politician but I don't see how she's sabotaging the process.

As OB suggested … bringing the Greens into government will not win over any of the voters who don’t like their politics to the SNP’s point of view.

I was being slightly tongue in cheek, however Sturgeon is on record as saying she thought another referendum shouldn’t happen until there was sustained and substantial support for separation in the polls. She can never admit it out loud but she really doesn’t want to hold a referendum right now. It’s too risky. However, if she did say it out loud there would be a leadership challenge so she has to keep kicking the can down the road, looking like she’s keen but never quite bringing it about.

Pierre 24-08-2021 08:20

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The SNP appear to be doing a great job of implementing mindbending legislation, like arresting you for speaking your mind in your own home, letting people self identify as whatever sex they feel like when they feel like. You know stuff that really resonates with the common man I’m sure. Not doing so well on drugs, nuts and education though.

They’re only in power because the poor people in Scotland literally have no other choice, if any one fancies starting a new left of centre to centre party in Scotland for the common man now’s the time.

1andrew1 24-08-2021 09:26

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090729)
As OB suggested … bringing the Greens into government will not win over any of the voters who don’t like their politics to the SNP’s point of view.

I was being slightly tongue in cheek, however Sturgeon is on record as saying she thought another referendum shouldn’t happen until there was sustained and substantial support for separation in the polls. She can never admit it out loud but she really doesn’t want to hold a referendum right now. It’s too risky. However, if she did say it out loud there would be a leadership challenge so she has to keep kicking the can down the road, looking like she’s keen but never quite bringing it about.

I think the alliance with the Greens achieves what it set out to do - create a pro-independence Scottish government. Attempting to judge the alliance on other criteria misses the point.

I do have some sympathy with the kicking-the-tin-can-down-the-lane argument, though. It will be interesting to see how it develops.

OLD BOY 24-08-2021 09:56

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090739)
I think the alliance with the Greens achieves what it set out to do - create a pro-independence Scottish government. Attempting to judge the alliance on other criteria misses the point.

I do have some sympathy with the kicking-the-tin-can-down-the-lane argument, though. It will be interesting to see how it develops.

Not really, Andrew. You wouldn’t expect the Labour Party to go into coalition with the Communists or the Conservatives to pair up with the Fascists.

It is extremely important to carefully consider the partners you go into coalition with to maintain credibility and the support of the people who elected you.

1andrew1 24-08-2021 10:05

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090742)
Not really, Andrew. You wouldn’t expect the Labour Party to go into coalition with the Communists or the Conservatives to pair up with the Fascists.

It is extremely important to carefully consider the partners you go into coalition with to maintain credibility and the support of the people who elected you.

The Green Party in Scotland is nothing like those two other organisations you cite. You're being blinded by your prejudices on this one I'm afraid.

The curated Wikipedia page describes it as "Centre-left to left-wing".

Sephiroth 24-08-2021 10:08

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The Greens are generally nutters hell-bent on destroying prosperity as the price for giving up meat, electricity, petrol and so on. The Scots (i.e. those resident in Scotland) are presumably sufficiently educated to re-align at the appropriate election point as their government increasingly comes up with insane policies.

The Scots (i.e. those resident outside Scotland) will remain powerless to see their homeland go even further down the pan.



---------- Post added at 10:08 ---------- Previous post was at 10:07 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090744)
The Green Party in Scotland is nothing like those two other organisations you cite. You're being blinded by your prejudices on this one I'm afraid.

I'm extremely prejudiced against the Greens based on the ones I know.

OLD BOY 24-08-2021 10:24

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090744)
The Green Party in Scotland is nothing like those two other organisations you cite. You're being blinded by your prejudices on this one I'm afraid.

The curated Wikipedia page describes it as "Centre-left to left-wing".

No, I’m not. You said that the important issue was to get an alliance to form a government, and other issues were not relevant.

I am saying that they are very relevant, hence my example.

1andrew1 24-08-2021 10:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090749)
No, I’m not. You said that the important issue was to get an alliance to form a government, and other issues were not relevant.

I am saying that they are very relevant, hence my example.

Those weren't examples Old Boy, they were extreme organisations. The Green Party in Scotland is described as centre-left to left-wing. So the differences between it and the SNP are somewhat less.

Sephiroth 24-08-2021 10:38

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090742)
Not really, Andrew. You wouldn’t expect the Labour Party to go into coalition with the Communists or the Conservatives to pair up with the Fascists.

It is extremely important to carefully consider the partners you go into coalition with to maintain credibility and the support of the people who elected you.

OB has it exactly right.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Result...ament_election

The Greens took NO constituency seats and obtained 8 Regional seats.

The SNP got 47.7% of the Constituency vote.
The Greens got 1.3% of the Constituency vote.

So, although there is a government supportive of independence, giving up the comforts that the Greens want to take away may well become a bigger issue than independence.

Sturgeon will want to put that difficult stuff into the background and the Greens will want that to be front & centre. Interesting times to come.


Chris 24-08-2021 12:02

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090751)
OB has it exactly right.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Result...ament_election

The Greens took NO constituency seats and obtained 8 Regional seats.

The SNP got 47.7% of the Constituency vote.
The Greens got 1.3% of the Constituency vote.

So, although there is a government supportive of independence, giving up the comforts that the Greens want to take away may well become a bigger issue than independence.

Sturgeon will want to put that difficult stuff into the background and the Greens will want that to be front & centre. Interesting times to come.


You need to be careful how you interpret votes in the Scottish parliament system. We have lived with it here for 20 odd years now and are (reasonably) familiar with it, unlike those in England.

For starters, the smaller parties often don’t stand any candidates in the constituencies. It is a waste of time because the constituency vote is FPTP so they know they can’t win. The regional list vote allocates seats proportionally, after allowing for any seats already won within each region’s constituencies. Most Green voters vote for a major party that best reflects their views in the constituency, and then they vote Green on the regional list - if they vote on the constituency ballot at all. The numbers don’t actually tally up so there are definitely people who only vote on one of the papers.

So if you want an accurate idea of how popular (or otherwise) the Greens are in Scotland, you need to look to the regional list vote, where they scored 8.1%. That may not sound a lot, but it put them in 4th place ahead of the Lib Dems and a country mile ahead of Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, which fought an explicitly list-vote-only campaign.

That said, I agree, pitting the Greens front and centre in Scottish politics might actually backfire. They have been careful in the past to keep the focus on Patrick Harvie because unlike most of them he doesn’t sound like a complete froot loop on TV. If they’re going to be sitting in the cabinet however, we are eventually going to end up with some of the other ones on the six o’clock news. As you say, interesting times are ahead.

OLD BOY 24-08-2021 12:48

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090750)
Those weren't examples Old Boy, they were extreme organisations. The Green Party in Scotland is described as centre-left to left-wing. So the differences between it and the SNP are somewhat less.

I was not suggesting that the Greens were an extreme organisation, Andrew. I was suggesting that which parties were brought into a coalition mattered. You know exactly what I meant, but it doesn’t suit your argument to admit it.

1andrew1 24-08-2021 12:59

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090767)
I was not suggesting that the Greens were an extreme organisation, Andrew. I was suggesting that which parties were brought into a coalition mattered. You know exactly what I meant, but it doesn’t suit your argument to admit it.

I can't mindread you and you shouldn't attempt to do the same with anyone else. By citing two extreme organisations you certainly gave the impression to me that the SNP were doing something similar.

Carth 24-08-2021 14:05

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
All I know about 'greens' is that you're supposed to eat 5 a day*, maybe it's different in Scotland ;)


*it's a prerogative, or charter, or something . . .

Chris 24-08-2021 14:09

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth (Post 36090787)
All I know about 'greens' is that you're supposed to eat 5 a day*, maybe it's different in Scotland ;)


*it's a prerogative, or charter, or something . . .

Fruit and veg is illegal in most of Scotland, and frowned on everywhere.

papa smurf 24-08-2021 14:15

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36090789)
Fruit and veg is illegal in most of Scotland, and frowned on everywhere.

unless it's battered and fried in lard.

Hugh 24-08-2021 14:33

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36090791)
unless it's battered and fried in lard.

Beef dripping - much healthier…;)

OLD BOY 24-08-2021 14:57

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090769)
I can't mindread you and you shouldn't attempt to do the same with anyone else. By citing two extreme organisations you certainly gave the impression to me that the SNP were doing something similar.

You said that which parties the SNP went into coalition did not matter, basically. My example simply demonstrated that it did.

Are you deliberately trying to misunderstand?

1andrew1 24-08-2021 16:14

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090801)
You said that which parties the SNP went into coalition did not matter, basically. My example simply demonstrated that it did.

Are you deliberately trying to misunderstand?

The issue seems to be that you've interpreted my post differently to they way it was intended. I am sorry for any lack of clarity on my part.

What I said was:
Quote:

I think the alliance with the Greens achieves what it set out to do - create a pro-independence Scottish government. Attempting to judge the alliance on other criteria misses the point.
What I mean by that is that the critical issue is that there is a pro-independence government in place in Scotland for the next four years. What does this mean? It significantly increases the chances of an independence election being called.

Apart from Alex Salmond's new party, the other parties are against independence. Sure, the two parties in government won't see eye to eye 100% on everything but both are centre-left which is far closer than the two parties you used as examples. And sure, there are many reasons why someone voted SNP instead of the Green Party but the key aspect remains - for the first time there is now a pro-independence government in charge of a devolved Scottish Parliament.

Chris 24-08-2021 17:00

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090812)
The issue seems to be that you've interpreted my post differently to they way it was intended. I am sorry for any lack of clarity on my part.

What I said was:

What I mean by that is that the critical issue is that there is a pro-independence government in place in Scotland for the next four years. What does this mean? It significantly increases the chances of an independence election being called.

Apart from Alex Salmond's new party, the other parties are against independence. Sure, the two parties in government won't see eye to eye 100% on everything but both are centre-left which is far closer than the two parties you used as examples. And sure, there are many reasons why someone voted SNP instead of the Green Party but the key aspect remains - for the first time there is now a pro-independence government in charge of a devolved Scottish Parliament.

I’m assuming you mean ‘a pro-independence government with a majority in the Scottish parliament’, because Scotland has had a pro-independence government since 2007. In fact this isn’t the first time Scotland has had a pro-independence government with a majority in the Scottish parliament either - it was also the case from 2011 to 2015, which is how we ended up with the referendum in 2014. With Green support, there has been a pro-independence majority in the parliament continuously since 2011.

I think you’re right, she’s after the combination of government and parliament united behind independence, but the reason she’s doing it is not because it’s a first, it’s because it’s been the case for 10 years one way or another, yet she still can’t get and win a referendum. This is just another way of rearranging the deckchairs to try to make her demands for the legal powers to hold another referendum more persuasive.

---------- Post added at 17:00 ---------- Previous post was at 16:46 ----------

Incidentally, if you want to read a vehemently pro-independence blogger who exerted genuine influence in the 2014 campaign, explaining why he thinks there is absolutely zero chance of there being a referendum any time in the next 5 years, I heartily commend this article:

https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-sh...g/#more-130108

Quote:

The only time in history the independence movement has ever held any meaningful leverage over a UK government (Theresa May’s lame-duck minority administration of 2017-19) Nicola Sturgeon squandered it on a futile and immoral attempt to deny England and Wales the Brexit that they voted for of their own free democratic will, and then helpfully handed Johnson the election that gave him the 80-seat majority which now renders him totally invulnerable on the constitution.

So what’s coming now is five miserable years of deja vu. A Holyrood with a pro-indy majority but no will to do anything with it, just like the one we’ve had since 2016 when Sturgeon lost Salmond’s majority and became beholden to the foul, racist, misogynist paedophilia sympathisers and enablers of the Scottish Greens – a situation that it’s now possible with hindsight to see absolutely delights her.
And that’s quite possibly the only time I will ever willingly share a link to Wings Over Scotland. :erm:

Sephiroth 24-08-2021 18:37

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36090801)
You said that which parties the SNP went into coalition did not matter, basically. My example simply demonstrated that it did.

Are you deliberately trying to misunderstand?

Is Andrew the new jfman, OB?

1andrew1 24-08-2021 18:52

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090823)
Is Andrew the new jfman, OB?

Nope - I don't possess his debating stamina. ;)

Sephiroth 24-08-2021 19:48

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36090826)
Nope - I don't possess his debating stamina. ;)

I hadn't noticed!

1andrew1 24-08-2021 20:15

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36090838)
I hadn't noticed!

Past our bed times, that's why. ;)

Itshim 26-08-2021 18:43

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I hope so . Fed up with supporting them ! Get back behind the wall now

Mad Max 27-08-2021 16:36

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
So Wales supports Scotland financially?

Chris 27-08-2021 16:47

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36091171)
So Wales supports Scotland financially?

Wales is almost as big a per capita net beneficiary from the UK treasury as Scotland is.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gover...yearending2020

Most of England is as well for that matter. London and the southeast are the net contributors, but then that’s to be expected in a country as heavily centralised as ours. And in case you were thinking of feeling sorry for all those southerners paying for our stuff, they do get a lot of infrastructure advantages to support all their tax-raising industry. So don’t. :D

nashville 29-08-2021 23:42

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gary L (Post 35358466)
I think you mean what should we do about Scotland.

I think we should assist them in every way possible in the split.

Everyone in Scotland does not want to spit, We are better and Stronger
together. We do not all like the SNP, For me I cannot stand them ,

Mr K 30-08-2021 20:53

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nashville (Post 36091320)
We are better and Stronger
together.

Where have I heard that before? ;)

Carth 30-08-2021 22:10

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36091374)
Where have I heard that before? ;)

Was it The Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?

1andrew1 14-06-2022 13:01

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Nicola Sturgeon unveils case for Scottish independence

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon launches a fresh independence campaign and says she "stands ready" to negotiate with PM Boris Johnson to hold a second referendum.

When the country held the first vote in 2014 its go-ahead was possible because the UK government granted the necessary power, called a Section 30 order.

However, in the near eight years that have passed two Conservative prime ministers - Theresa May and Mr Johnson - have refused to give that order a second time.

Ms Sturgeon now says she is confident that Scotland can navigate towards a legal independence vote and the detail of how that could be done would be presented to the Scottish Parliament "very soon".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-61795633

Stephen 14-06-2022 13:39

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
The wee yin really is obsessed with this thing. She can't actually focus on trying to run a country.

papa smurf 14-06-2022 14:13

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Stephen (Post 36125237)
The wee yin really is obsessed with this thing. She can't actually focus on trying to run a country.

I don't see how any one could think of investing in Scotland with these head cases in charge.

Chris 14-06-2022 15:02

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36125230)

Nicola Sturgeon unveils another round of wishful thinking, unanswered questions and special pleading.

12 years of Tory government, Boris Johnson in Downing Street and 2 years of Wee Nippy on TV almost daily, 'running' the country via covid policy, and the polling has barely shifted. Quite what she thinks is going to shift now is beyond me.

Of course, she doesn't seriously think it will shift. This is all about maintaining the unity of the cause by giving the appearance of momentum.

nashville 14-06-2022 16:47

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Fed up with Nicola and her Indy 2, she knows we do not want it but she is trying to hold onto her job by pleasing her followers, Scotland would be in the gutter with Westminster, We need all nations to stay together,

1andrew1 14-06-2022 17:02

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I assume Sturgeon is raising independence now as she knows Johnson is in a defensive position. Not that he will change his mind, but it will distract him from other matters.

nomadking 14-06-2022 17:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Still no sign of what real policies they would want to pursue that would magically increase things like productivity and GDP.

Too many of their comparator countries have advantages that are unique to them or they got in there first and there is little room for newcomers.
Link

Quote:

This paper sets out a detailed analysis of the UK’s performance across a range of economic and social indicators relative to that of ten European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland.

Itshim 14-06-2022 17:39

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36091171)
So Wales supports Scotland financially?

Doubt it , but the amount of taxes I pay supports many around this and two other countries , god knows accountants cost enough , dread to think what it would be with out them :angel: as Scotland takes more out of the pot than it put in the rest will be better off . If l was English I'd dump Wales and Northern Ireland as well but that's a whole different story !

Chris 14-06-2022 18:47

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36125267)
I assume Sturgeon is raising independence now as she knows Johnson is in a defensive position. Not that he will change his mind, but it will distract him from other matters.

To be fair she’s been saying for months she’d raise it now. Had it not been for covid she’d have raised it a year or more ago. If she doesn’t at least look like she’s trying to get a referendum during the present Holyrood parliamentary term, then the wider sep movement will fracture and she will likely get defenestrated. The economics and the polling really don’t make any sense for her right now but she can only prevaricate so long.

She is of course continuing to prevaricate - note the lack of specifics in today’s reheated mince, and also how she plans to drip-feed half a dozen position papers into public view in the coming weeks, without any actual timetable.

1andrew1 15-06-2022 09:59

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36125300)
To be fair she’s been saying for months she’d raise it now. Had it not been for covid she’d have raised it a year or more ago. If she doesn’t at least look like she’s trying to get a referendum during the present Holyrood parliamentary term, then the wider sep movement will fracture and she will likely get defenestrated. The economics and the polling really don’t make any sense for her right now but she can only prevaricate so long.

She is of course continuing to prevaricate - note the lack of specifics in today’s reheated mince, and also how she plans to drip-feed half a dozen position papers into public view in the coming weeks, without any actual timetable.

i did wonder if the timing was anything to do with distracting from Patrick Grady (SNP MP) facing suspension from the Commons for sexual misconduct.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61798663

007stuart 15-06-2022 18:18

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36125368)
i did wonder if the timing was anything to do with distracting from Patrick Grady (SNP MP) facing suspension from the Commons for sexual misconduct.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61798663


:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Hom3r 15-06-2022 21:52

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Obviously she has solved Brexit and stopped Covid-19 is Scotland then?

Julian 15-06-2022 22:11

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 007stuart (Post 36125422)
:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

I think you were right Andrew

Mad Max 15-06-2022 23:24

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36125368)
i did wonder if the timing was anything to do with distracting from Patrick Grady (SNP MP) facing suspension from the Commons for sexual misconduct.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61798663

Spot on, sir.

1andrew1 28-06-2022 14:49

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
19th October 2023 proposed as referendum date by Sturgeon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61968607

papa smurf 28-06-2022 15:29

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36126441)
19th October 2023 proposed as referrndum date by Sturgeon.BBC News - Scottish independence: 19 October 2023 proposed as date for referendum
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61968607

Proposed date of illegal referendum is more like it.

Stephen 28-06-2022 15:43

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I wish the SNP would just knock it on the head. They had their no answer last time.

At this moment is not the right time to divide the country yet again. We have far more important issues which the people running our country need to work on. Recovery from Covid, cost of living crisis etc.

Mick 28-06-2022 16:14

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Supreme Court gonna pick up this tab, can’t see them saying yes to dear wee sweet Nicola.

Damien 28-06-2022 16:21

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I think the plan is to get rejected and then hype that as a grievance for the 2024 Scottish Elections.

Mick 28-06-2022 16:49

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36126448)
I think the plan is to get rejected and then hype that as a grievance for the 2024 Scottish Elections.

Could be the case SNP joins Labour in a Coalition, should there be a Hung Parliament, in GE2024, part of that deal, will be she gets her Westminster consent.

nashville 28-06-2022 16:59

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Here we go again with her Indy2, No wonder Scotland is being neglected as she keeps all the money for to fight this situation, People of Scotland need to get together and take a hard look at what we would be like on our own , In the gutter for sure

Hugh 28-06-2022 17:00

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36126445)
Proposed date of illegal referendum is more like it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick (Post 36126447)
Supreme Court gonna pick up this tab, can’t see them saying yes to dear wee sweet Nicola.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-61968607

Quote:

Ms Sturgeon said Scotland's top law officer, the Lord Advocate, has referred the case to the UK's highest court, with court papers being served on UK government law officers on Tuesday afternoon.

The first minister said she hoped the court would be able to "deliver clarity and legal certainty in a timely manner" instead of passing the bill and then facing a legal challenge from opponents.

If the court rules that Holyrood does not have the power to hold a referendum, she said the next general election would become a "de facto referendum" with the SNP standing on a single issue of independence.

However, if the court rules in the Scottish government's favour, Ms Sturgeon said it would move quickly to pass its Referendum Bill, which was published while she was speaking.

She said that the lawfulness of the referendum "must be established as a matter of fact, not just opinion".

papa smurf 28-06-2022 17:05

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
On the subject of referenda my sons would both like a referendum on kicking Scotland out of the UK, wonder what the result of that would be.

nomadking 28-06-2022 17:12

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Seems extremely unfair that those opposed have to raise money and go through all the trouble every few years, just because the taxpayer funded SNP says so.
As I've previously said, if the polls were very in favour of independence, she might have more of a case to argue. Something like this shouldn't be so narrow based, that "which way the wind is blowing" on the day of the vote might affect the outcome.

Damien 28-06-2022 17:27

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36126455)
Seems extremely unfair that those opposed have to raise money and go through all the trouble every few years, just because the taxpayer funded SNP says so.
As I've previously said, if the polls were very in favour of independence, she might have more of a case to argue. Something like this shouldn't be so narrow based, that "which way the wind is blowing" on the day of the vote might affect the outcome.

That's why there is an argument for supermajorities being required for such fundamental change but given the precedent has already been sent with the 2014 referendum it's unlikely to be proposed for subsequent ones. Comes across too much like you're stacking the deck.

jfman 28-06-2022 17:55

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36126457)
That's why there is an argument for supermajorities being required for such fundamental change but given the precedent has already been sent with the 2014 referendum it's unlikely to be proposed for subsequent ones. Comes across too much like you're stacking the deck.

It comes across as stacking the deck because that's exactly what it is.

OLD BOY 28-06-2022 17:59

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
I’m still waiting to hear how her economic strategy will demonstrate how she intends to ensure that Scots are not poorer if they go independent.

Given that England would be better off without the regions, I don’t think those of us south of the border have much to worry about, but I feel sorry for those north of the border, who would become impoverished with independence. The oil won’t be much help to them after 2050.

nomadking 28-06-2022 18:04

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36126457)
That's why there is an argument for supermajorities being required for such fundamental change but given the precedent has already been sent with the 2014 referendum it's unlikely to be proposed for subsequent ones. Comes across too much like you're stacking the deck.

The vote for a Welsh assembly was very marginal, less than 7,000 votes in it.
Insisting on having a vote every few years when you don't get your own way, is stacking the deck. Along with the taxpayer funding one side, and that side able to hand out freebies and bribes, all funded by the English taxpayer(they couldn't afford it without English money).

Hom3r 28-06-2022 20:32

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
If they leave then many will be shocked at the cost of prescriptions and uni fees they will have to find, then there will be the roads that they will have to fund.

nomadking 28-06-2022 20:37

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Too much of a disconnect between spending levels and taxes that people pay, or rather don't pay. Too many people don't need to be bothered, if taxes have to increase, because it's not their taxes that are going to increase.

Mad Max 28-06-2022 20:38

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36126477)
If they leave then many will be shocked at the cost of prescriptions and uni fees they will have to find, then there will be the roads that they will have to fund.


Prescriptions have been free of any charges in Scotland for years, why would independence change that?

Sephiroth 28-06-2022 20:44

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36126478)
Too much of a disconnect between spending levels and taxes that people pay, or rather don't pay. Too many people don't need to be bothered, if taxes have to increase, because it's not their taxes that are going to increase.

Just wait and see. If Sturgeon gets success in any referendum I'd bet that the big row will be on state pensions and what England would have to pay. Shades of Brexit.

Damien 28-06-2022 21:12

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36126480)
Just wait and see. If Sturgeon gets success in any referendum I'd bet that the big row will be on state pensions and what England would have to pay. Shades of Brexit.

It's Brexit on steroids. I have no idea how people who argued for Remain on the basis of economics can now support Scottish Independence.

Leaving the EU trading bloc was disruptive but at least in that case we had some existing friction there with a physical border and a different currency. If Scotland leaves there is a wide-open border that would presumably have to be closed at some point (especially if they want to join the EU) and there would now be different currencies. A business in Edinburgh that could sell in London just as easily as they could sell in Glasgow would now find a customs border and a currency exchange added to transactions to over 90% of their current domestic market. :spin: It's insane.

Mr K 28-06-2022 22:55

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36126462)
I’m still waiting to hear how her economic strategy will demonstrate how she intends to ensure that Scots are not poorer if they go independent.

Given that England would be better off without the regions, I don’t think those of us south of the border have much to worry about, but I feel sorry for those north of the border, who would become impoverished with independence. The oil won’t be much help to them after 2050.

The economic argument might not matter. All about sovereignty and self determination, sound familiar? We voted to be worse off and Scotland might decide to do the same, both daft decisions, but its their choice. Almost 10 years since the last vote so the next generation is here.
Having BJ, a law breaking clown running the UK into the ground hadn't helped matters. Together we're stronger divided we're all weaker, same for Europe and the UK.

1andrew1 29-06-2022 00:17

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 36126493)
The economic argument might not matter. All about sovereignty and self determination, sound familiar? We voted to be worse off and Scotland might decide to do the same, both daft decisions, but its their choice. Almost 10 years since the last vote so the next generation is here.
Having BJ, a law breaking clown running the UK into the ground hadn't helped matters. Together we're stronger divided we're all weaker, same for Europe and the UK.

Having a Conservative PM in charge of the UK unpopular with most in Scotland who took Scotland out of the EU against her will should make the best possible conditions for Scottish independence. Yet Scottish independence votes are still only polling at 45%.

Paul 29-06-2022 01:23

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Presumably she can have as many "referendums" as she likes (its just a big vote).
They just wont mean anything [legally] to the rest of the UK, who can just ignore them ?

OLD BOY 29-06-2022 07:44

Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36126479)
Prescriptions have been free of any charges in Scotland for years, why would independence change that?

Because an independent Scottish Government would not be able to afford such generosity. Remember that quite apart from the full cost of government that it would have to bear, there would no longer be the strength of the British economy or the Barnett formula to rely on anymore. Added to that, oil revenues will decline over the coming three decades as green energy takes over.

There is also the share of the Covid debt they would have to pay back and the trade consequences of a border between Scotland and England.

There are too many negatives and no economic positives.


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