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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
What about dual nationality? - the U.K. already allows that for Irish (and Canadian, amongst quite a lot of others) passport holders.
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If Scotland left the UK, would their footballers then have to abide by the same rules & regulations as other foreign players?
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This is why I genuinely welcome English engagement with the debate.
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I doubt krankie will allow scots to be known as British or even worse English, it'll be ok for scots living in the rest of the uk they could apply for settled status, as for those who live in Scotland but didn't want to break up the union they will have to get a travel visa to visit the other nations or try to get over the wall that we will have built. |
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I could be wrong (failing memory, too much Brandy ;) ) but I'm sure I remember not being allowed to write 'English' on many official forms, it had to be British.
Not best pleased as I recall ;) |
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That would be because your nationality is British/U.K. - English isn’t a nationality, and hasn’t been for over 300 years... :)
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Also, unless the SNP tries to declare a socialist republic, the monarch of Great Britain will still be enthroned and a cultural concept of Britishness will continue, and the government of the remaining UK would be entirely at liberty to continue to define British in whatever way it chose and to continue to grant the people of the island citizenship of Britain. Whatever happens, the idea of anyone who currently holds British citizenship being stripped of it in the event of Scotland separating from the UK is fanciful. |
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They would acquire Scottish citizenship instead. Similar to where any part of an existing country breaks away. |
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How many examples are there, where part of country splits off, that citizens of the new country, automatically keep citizenship and rights of the old? |
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To come to the question of those Scots who will have voted "No" to independence: Chris makes a sound point. If Scotland allows dual-nationality (England will probably insist on this as part of the Withdrawal Agreement) that will sort itself out. Except that there will be anomalies. A Scot may have dual-citizenship. Can an English person, with no connection to Scotland also claim Scottish citizenship? This was done in Northern Ireland. Separation will be so fraught but we can't let Scotland have our cake to eat. They might eventually join the EU and their desire to spit on England/Wales will only increase. |
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Our only hope is the SNP lose and Sturgeon has to quit, like Salmond did
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The better analogy is the Irish Free State, whose citizens remained British Subjects, as far as British and other Commonwealth governments were concerned, from 1922, and whose British citizenship status was properly resolved by Act of Parliament in 1949. Similarly, anyone with one Irish grandparent, from north or south, is automatically entitled to Irish citizenship, although they have to actively apply for it. |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Well the old polls are tight, little nudge here, little nudge there all within margin of error between narrow majority/minority.
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A bit of analysis was done (not by me!) on twitter a few days back that pointed to where they could get success on the list and that's between 5 and 7% across the regions but it was the Labour party that had the most 'at risk' seats based on the last election. But the Holyrood system is quite complicated so whether that holds up in reality or not we'd have to wait and see. I'd be inclined to think that even with a paltry showing Salmond would get in whatever region he is standing in. |
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Many European voting systems have a formal 5% polling threshold below which you don’t get allocated any seats. We don’t have that here but historically that is more or less the tipping point. If Eck can’t get beyond 5% he probably won’t get any seats.
The question of who he starts stealing them from if he does get any is interesting. Labour is still looking very weak which is unsurprising but still disappointing (and I say that as someone who has never voted for them). The only way the SNP is going to be seriously dented is if they lose some of their central belt seats and it is unlikely anyone but Labour can do that. |
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Probably spent too much time for a Saturday morning overthinking what creates the artificial threshold trying to work out why 3% of the vote in a 129 member Parliament doesn’t get 3 or 4 seats then realised the lists aren’t balancing 129 they’re each individually balancing ~17.
Even where small parties have had success on a national scale it’s really how concentrated their vote is that got seats (Scottish Socialists in 2003 spring to mind - that was driven by a 15% share in Glasgow). |
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As I'm a bit more sad I decided to look into the Alba party's chances based on 'personality'.
If they're not going to hit the 5-7% 'threshold' nationally, which the polls strongly indicate they won't, then they'd be relying on personality in each area (as Tommy Sheridan did with the SSP in Glasgow) Salmond himself is in North East Scotland where the Lib Dems got a solitary seat on 6%/18,444 votes. In the good old days (1999) Salmond would win about that many votes in Banff and Buchan. His ability to peddle the message that the SNP didn't take a solitary seat off the North East list plus his profile (if that's viewed is positive) might take him over. It could actually be a damning indictment of what the public think of him if he doesn't. In Lothian their most high profile candidate is Kenny MacAskill the sitting MP for East Lothian but he underperformed vs the SNP nationally (he took 36% of the vote in that constituency/20k votes). The Greens got 2 list seats off 34k (10.6%) votes in the region so I wonder if Kenny can push the dial there. Neale Hanvey is the sitting MP for Kircaldy and Cowdenbeath who won his seat on 16,568 votes in 2019 while suspended from the SNP. He's in mid-Scotland and Fife where the Greens got one off the list on 17,860 (6.1%). I've genuinely never heard of the rest of them (well, Alex Arthur the former pro-boxer) and if Hanvey didn't have "MP" after his name I'd not have clicked on him either. Three seats though if there's a minority Government... |
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I've read the manifesto a few times now but can anyone name a Scottish Labour policy?
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Here you go. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-56750856 |
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So Nicola, big head, small body, Sturgeon, makes no overall progress, since she took reigns of the SNP. No overall majority, again, sure they will be in bed with the Greens, in the Scottish Parliament, but and I borrow the rule from the EU Referendum Remainers rule book, the vote share for Tories, Labour and Lib Dem’s, essentially, anti-independence parties, beat the vote share of the separatist parties. Such a crying shame.
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When it comes down to it, is there much of a downside for England to finally kick out Scotland? It would depend on how soft England was in any agreements, eg would we be still expected to financially prop up Scotland for the next 1,000 years?
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Once this pandemic is over, I have high hopes for what the country can achieve economically, if we can focus on that for a few years and not get bogged down with an independence argument, I’m sure the country will benefit as a whole and perhaps independence may drop in importance. |
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Scotland runs a deficit, even in the "good times", therefore there is no economic benefit from Scotland. Anything Scotland needs from England, they would still need. It's not mutually exclusive that all Scots that vote for the Union to remain, actually want the Union to remain. They are being pragmatic in that they get so many freebies as a result. Finally be brave enough to take away their unfair freebies, and see their attitudes change. Spending money is easy, when you don't have to earn it. Link Quote:
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All the BBC are doing is keep going on about NS calling for a second once in a lifetime referendum for independence as they have a majority for one.
But the actual figures across the board are pro union. |
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Scotland cannot afford to break away.
They would end up having to pay for prescriptions, university fees to start. Plus NS seems to have forgotten that more people live in London than in Scotland. In regard to the base in Scotland, that I guess employs loads of locals. We simply relocate to the south of the border and ban any Scots person from working there under security reasons, and employ Brits. Redundancy payments won't be an issue as they aren't British Citizens. Let NS worry about the newly unemployed, it will be her problem not ours. |
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they should be billed for the cost of any move of the base which would not be cheap, but no worries they have the magic money well. |
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How our flag will look if NS gets her way.
Perhaps we could change the Scottish Blue, to Welsh Green instead? |
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Re: the pro-union vote, folks are assuming all Labour/ Lib voters would vote No in a referendum. When faced with being ruled by Boris from London, it only takes a small percentage of them to choose canny Nicola from Edinburgh instead. Hence the paranoia about another vote: the unpopularity of the PM in Scotland could swing it. |
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It's more a case of being anti the constant anti-English sentiment from the Scottish, rather than a straightforward anti-Scottish sentiment. Still no examples of a longer-term downside, only upsides. |
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I’ve lived in Scotland more than half my adult life and never once experienced anti-English sentiment, even from those I know to be raving nats. :D. I’m not saying it doesn’t exist, but that it’s overstated. Scottish nationalism is largely fuelled by a bizarre kind of deluded exceptionalism that has created a narrative in which Scotland has, amongst other things, never really been the home territory of an empire, and is somehow untainted by things the British empire did, like profit from slavery and tobacco plantations; and somehow had nothing to do with the British political system. It’s all English, and Scotland has always been an unwilling, or at best reluctant, passenger.
It’s nonsense of course - everything recognisable about our government and politics, even our entire concept of what a nation state is, was forged after the union, through the 18th and 19th centuries (as it was everywhere in Europe). Sit and listen to a Holyrood parliament debate with your eyes shut and you hear exactly the same British political debate being conducted as you do in Westminster. Scottish nationalism is all about living in denial about Scotland’s fundamental connection to Britain and Britishness, while idolising an approved, sanitised version of Scotland’s cultural distinctiveness. |
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Far too many existing separate arrangements with too many divergences, for it to be a sustainable situation. Too many devolved powers, for which they are not held accountable. Link Quote:
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Can I ask why? I'm Scottish and pro the Union, like many thousands of other Scots. |
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However if you're right surely no harm in letting them have another vote? It's doomed to fail, isn't it ? I get the impression Govts, aren't keen on referendums unless they are certain of the result. Recent history hasn't helped ! |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Maybe the UK government will enact some legislation to state that future referendums need a 2/3 majority to alter the status quo? And then happily have an independence referendum for Scotland?
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Mind you that might make another vote we had look suspect..... |
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This anti-English/Scottish is BS.
My niece was in a relationship with a young woman from Glasgow. R and her mum where both pro Brexit and pro Union. R even got a job down here to be with my niece, I got on with her very well as we both worked in aviation (she was cabin crew), we both liked Queen. When my niece went to Glasgow she was never referred to a Sassenach |
Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?
Someone somewhere today suggested a referendum in 2027. Seems a sound idea to me. Boris could offer this and then let it rip, so to speak.
She'll want to carry the moment; he'll want to build a better Scotland in the 6 years lead-in. Should be real fun. |
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This could get very tasty. I don't know what you lot think, but Boris is worth at least 3% for independence - which would at least bring it to 48/52!
Anyway, look at the long list of pitfalls on the way, seen from my point of view calculated to rile Sturgeon: Who can vote? - The diaspora of those born in Scotland and residing in the UK? - Offspring not born in Scotland? - Over-18s only? - Will Scots living in England lose British citizenship if independence happens Military arrangements - Who must leave the British Army/Navy/Airforce? - Scottish submarine bases to become British Sovereign bases? Currency - Can they keep the Pound? - Will they survive interest rate hikes if they keep the Pound? Financial Settlement )will be a huge bunfight) - Proportion of pensions payable in Scotland to be paid by Britain? - Who owns what? Particularly the banks? - Just in time supplies from England? Border (and EU) - What will the day 1 border arrangements be? - Will many, many, Scots come to live in England before independence? - What would their nationality be post-independence? - If they join the EU, when would the border go up? - Tariffs? - Would someone try a sort of "Scotland Protocol"? - Which British political party would wear that? Lots more to add, no doubt. Oil is now dead. Scotland sells several times more stuff within the UK than they did with the EU. The SNP idiots cite Norway as a small country that has succeeded; yes when oil was the bug thing, they set up a sovereign fund and moved forward with non-oil investments. Scotland has none of that. They also cite Ireland as a success story. Well, Ireland's going to be hurt by the G20 tax agreement because the USA will pressurise the companies that now remit profits to Ireland unless Ireland falls in line. Exciting times ahead! |
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An interesting development. I wonder if Michael Gove was aware of this when he talked about accepting a settled will for an independence vote.
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It’s been mooted ever since election day - so yes, he will have been aware of that possibility. Note however Gove’s reference to the settled will for a referendum, not settled will for independence. Believe it or not, polling is frequently less positive towards the idea of a second referendum than it is towards independence because a section of the “soft yes” electorate accepts the validity and the generational nature of the outcome in 2014. These voters accept there should not yet be another vote.
Polling support for independence has fallen after a brief spike in the middle of the pandemic. Recent polling on the question of whether there should even be another referendum is hard to come by. Whatever “settled will” means, it’s very unlikely Gove will agree there’s sufficient evidence for it any time soon. |
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Lots of oft-repeated talk about Scotland's oil revenues coming to an end. But far less talk about its wind power. The UK is the windiest country in Europe and Scotland has 25% of Europe's potential offshore wind and tidal resources. This could give a fillip to the nationalists when pressed on how an independent Scotland might pay its way.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/sc...plan/pages/49/ |
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I don't think it's a silver bullet to replace oil revenues. |
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Remember the Scottish government income comes from taxes, so the potential income from that is still a drop in the ocean compared to their deficit. |
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"Great Britain’s electricity market currently has 6GW of electricity interconnector capacity: 3GW to France (IFA and IFA2) 1GW to the Netherlands (BritNed) 1GW to Belgium (Nemo Link) 500MW to Northern Ireland (Moyle) 500MW to the Republic of Ireland (East West)." plus one to Norway currently under construction. (Source: Ofgem) |
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The logical question is whether Scottish-produced electricity could be exported via these inter-connectors or if it would need to build interconnectors of its own. |
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After independence, they wouldn't be able to sell it to France, Belgium, Norway etc. France doesn't need it, and Norway is likely to have it's own wind power. Even if the Scots could sell it, they would be competing against Norway. Link Quote:
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Would be a bit silly to try and transmit power from Scotland to Germany via Norway. I included the possibility of UK(England, Wales, and NI), along with Ireland. What other countries are near to Scotland and have a large unfulfilled energy requirement? If France needed it, how would the power get there from Scotland, if not via England and the National Grid. |
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The Western Link interconnector in the Irish Sea from the Wirral to Scotland was built exactly to transfer power from Scotland to England, plans for an Eastern Link in the North Sea are on the table. There are also plans for a cable from R.o.L to Wales and R.o.I to France.
A North Sea grid connecting Dutch, Danish, German and U.K. wind farms is also a long term aim, as is a connector to Iceland, to tap into their thermal energy reserves. I am somewhat involved in the periphery of the offshore power & interconnector sector. The movement of energy around the U.K. and Europe is, and will be more, commonplace. |
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https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/17...nd-to-britain/
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“From Scotland to Britain”? :confused:
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Where are the financial figures that claim, it could all raise £10bn in TAXES.
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As a whole the energy sector only boosts UK GDP by £28bn, so the tax levied on the Scottish share of any profits won't be so great.:rolleyes: Link Quote:
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From where is the Scottish Government getting the money to fund the fiscal deficit?
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To be fair events of the past year or so, are unusual and most countries are in the same situation. The true measure is the long-running deficit from before then. |
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Actually the present figures are just as true and useful, and sobering. Yes, they represent the cost of the Covid-19 crisis, but they place in stark relief Scotland’s structural weakness compared to England. It cost relatively more to deal with the crisis here, while Scotland’s contribution to the cost was relatively less.
Of course none of that matters while Scotland is part of a successful pooling and sharing union which manages all the assets and liabilities arising on this island as a single unified territory. It only becomes a problem if nationalists succeed in tearing that union up. It’s about time we heard from them how they would plan to square that circle, without blaming Westminster or making evasive assertions about making different choices. Especially with regards to Covid-19 it’s very hard to see what different choices the Nats could have made to deal with it more cheaply. |
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I was interested to read this.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...ng-magna-carta Does Magna Carta apply in Scotland? |
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I suspect not, particularly as 1215 was well before the various Acts of Union. Also: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19761919 Quote:
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