Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121367)

The BBC have said that if this was an election, Labour would have 35% and Conservatives 30%


Yet no mention that local and general election votes differ wildly.


Another nail in their so-called neutrality coffin

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121372)

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 36121372)

Why wasn't it announced yesterday that the cops are going to investigation KS over beer gate, I bet the voting would have been different.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121378)

The Tories are doing worse today than they did overnight. Now down nearly 300 seats which is putting them at the higher end of bad predictions.

Lib Dems are up over 150.

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36121391)

… which perhaps gives some useful context to the Tory losses. The Lib Dems aren’t going to form a government in my lifetime. For the Tories to be dislodged those votes have to go to Labour, and they aren’t. Lib Dems are a safe protest vote, especially in council elections.

Of course the Tories have had a kicking - that’s actually what’s meant to happen at mid-term elections. It’s just that the opposition has been so bad for so long that the blue team has had a relatively easy ride recently. Tories mustn’t be complacent off the back of these results but Labour, once it’s finished crowing this evening, really needs to take a good look at itself because it’s not on course for power at this rate.

(Edit) one further observation from today: based on these results, London is now representative of nothing but itself. We should bear that in mind while politicians and journalists who spend most of their time there are telling us what we should think about these results.

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121394)

Tories now down 384. At the more pessimistic end of projections

---------- Post added at 18:21 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ----------

Updated seat projections after the days results: https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak...CyrZzDs6EqAAAA



---------- Post added at 19:09 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------



I think the Liberal Democrats pose a bit more of a threat to the Tories than you're giving them credit for. They won't form a Government but they could take a good 10-20 seats from the Conservatives in the South on a good night. They do quite well at attracting the sort of middle-class, university-educated but reasonably liberal demographic that has helped the Tories in such areas. What I believe has kept them back in recent years was the fear of Corbyn driving voters not to take a chance. Likewise, the threat of the Tories has kept a lot of Labour voters coming back to Labour even during the Corbyn years. (Of course, if Starmer goes as a result of this beer incident then who knows).

In addition whilst London is only representative of itself you are seeing further evidence of a realignment of politics with Tories containing to set weaker across the South rather than just London. The only difference is whilst London is going more Labour the Liberals are picking off seats elsewhere.

Finally, the biggest threat to the Tories is that I don't think this is a typical mid-term election shellacking where the Government has got the unpopular work out of the way and can now focus on re-election with an easier couple of years. They've now got high inflation, a cost of living crisis and a possible recession to come the impacts of which have still lot fully hit. Where is the turnaround going to come from?

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36121408)

Tories now on -467

Originally Posted by General Maximus (Post 36121410)

Ouch. That is painfull. At least they'll get the message.