Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

No, perhaps I should have expanded. Odessa and Sevastopol are vital to the existence of the Black Sea Fleet (albeit a shadow of it's former self) and my belief is that Putin and his minions would see Ukraine divided before entertaining the prospect of losing such a key, strategic location. Either that or effect some kind of arbitrary annexation as the Soviets did with the unsightly wart on the landscape that is Kaliningrad.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yeah right, no intention whatsoever of getting as many new members as possible into the club... :rolleyes:

We start resisting if and when Russia directly threatens our interests and right now the Ukraine is a problem we don't have and don't need. We've plenty on our plate to deal with already and this is just adding to the instability. Ukraine was once in their club and Russia didn't prevent them leaving. What the EU is doing is going to be seen as eroding the buffer zone of countries adjacent to Russian soil and that's a big problem.

So, according to your logic we should assist the Ukranians to pull further away from Russia if they so wish but then stop if the Russians call our bluff and move their tanks in. What sort of help is leaving them high and dry? That's a recipe for being damned by both sides and it's happened before where we've intervened then got the hell out leaving those we were supposed to be trying to help to their fate.

It's not cowardice but common sense to avoid getting entangled in a potential war you can't win unless there's no other option. So far as I can see right now Russia isn't seeking to expand anywhere, it's seeking to prevent a former Soviet state from moving further towards the EU. We can argue about the rights and wrongs of all this but there is another option to getting directly involved and that is to keep out of it just like we have done and are doing selectively elsewhere around the globe.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Yes eventually they're a option to become another EU members. Ukraine has harboured that ambition for a while. It's that is what they want it is their choice, not ours nor Russias. Anyway this is more than that now. It may have been the spark but it grew into more. The protestors believe the Government was corrupt and serving it's own interests. Their attempts to use violence against the protestors inflamed it more.

I think that had more to do with the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union more than anything else.

It's not just what the EU is doing it's what the people of the country are doing as well. If they didn't want anything to do with the EU then I would agree but it appears they do and it's their decision to make. The Ukrainians don't see themselves as a mere buffer zone.

Yes because we provide what help we can. Honouring the terms of an agreement they wanted is not especially taxing for us. What other policies and agreements should be cancel at the behest of Russia?

Besides it's not as if moving the tanks in is an action without cost for Russia. They're currently doing the same as the EU, willing to support the country if they choose them. However unlike the EU they don't have the backing of the majority of the country.

No one is advocating getting involved in a war. We're talking about supporting the citizens of the country by not cancelling the free trade agreement. A agreement some want us to cancel because we don't want to upset Russia.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

We're talking about rattling Russia's cage unnecessarily and potentially getting embroiled in something which could easily escalate out of control and end in armed conflict. The EU's interest in Ukraine will not stop at a pure trade agreement and the Russians know this.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

It's not unnecessary. It's supporting the right of the citizens to make their own choice about their future.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So why the Ukrainians all of a sudden there have been dozens of countries in the last twenty years where the will of the people were ignored by us even when mass killing started. This is about Russia pure and simple and it's something that could get out of control very quickly with bad handling the EU is not renowned for great handling of things.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Well for our point of view Europe is our backyard. However it's not all of a sudden, we have tried sanctions and other forms of diplomatic pressure in other countries but not always with their military apart from Bosnia. We took an interest in the Ukraine during the Orange revolution. We (well, mostly the EU) got involved in the Russian war in Georgia too. European countries have always been rather involved with the Eastern Bloc since the fall of the Soviet Union. It's utterly baseless to suggest that we've ignored them until now.

We can't keep backing down in the face of Russia. It won't end well. Putin will see that Europe not only doesn't have the will to stop them but will even terminate relations with those countries to appease Russia. It's not as if Russia would love to escalate things either, instability in the Eastern Bloc doesn't help them anymore than it helps us.

I don't really think Russia has the will to invade a democratic country to install a puppet regime. I think they will also be limited to diplomatic pressure such as withdrawing loans and oil. This is where the EU should step in and let them know that if they don't have friends in the East then they have them in the West and that they, the people of the Ukraine, should decide who governs them. Be is an administration who favours Russia, one who favours the EU, or one who chooses to attempt neutrality and becoming a Eastern Switzerland who really don't want to get involved.

The important thing is to allow them to make that choice themselves rather than do as you suggest and enforce Russian-installed governments to keep the Kremlin happy.

---------- Post added at 20:28 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

The EU and the people of the Ukraine. Whose complaints extend to more than just the rejection of the EU trade agreement.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Interesting read here which shows how complicated this could easily become:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26321329

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

3% difference in the polls isn't enough of a majority to get my support, I don't see how such a meaningful decision with such widespread ramifications can be decided on such a small number

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

That was presumably before the crisis kicked off.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...93992459983238

Besides as I said previously this has become about more than just a desire to join the EU. It's also about the Kermlinisation of the Ukrainian government, it's close ties to Russia and back room deals, and the overruling of the Ukrainian people .

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

So it'll be out of the frying pan and into the for them if the UK is anything to go by what with the euroupenisation of our parliament, the back room deals and the overruling of our people. Meet the new boss Ukraine, same as the old boss, just slightly more sophisticated.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

tbf, we are less likely to send in tanks, helicopter gunships, and ground attack fighter/bombers, so I am not sure if that is an apt comparison....

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

The UK Government is not comparable to the Kremlin either. When a country at our borders with close cultural ties talks of breaking away we grant them a referendum to let them decide.

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

Aren't we, how many times have EU tanks, planes and gunships seen action this millennium compared to their Russian counterparts.

---------- Post added at 16:19 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ----------

What about large swathes to the east that are overwhelmingly Russian in orientation will we stand by and let important areas like Donetsk declare independence or stick up for our new Ukranian friends

Re: Ukraine on the verge of civil war!
 

No but then we don't have the EU sending tanks into Wales or Scotland because they didn't vote for the Tories. The vote of the Russian-friendly leader was mostly respected within the country and outside of it (even if that the outside relief was based on self-interest) and it was only after the recent moves from that Government that people reacted. Still we should respect the democratic process in the country presuming it hasn't been rigged. A new election needs to be undertaken and then we'll see where we are.

However it's simply not justifiable to deny them the right to be pro-EU for fear of upsetting the Russians. The desire some on here have for the EU to withdraw the trade agreement and make it clear they will not help or respect any desire to move closer to the Western European nations will remove that right.