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IANAL and I am especially not a US constitutional lawyer but on a plain reading of the relevant bit of the constitution I can’t see how Trump can stand, and in fact for months now I’ve been seeing people who do have relevant qualifications opining that for all the noise of criminal and civil trials it was always likely to be a challenge under the 14th amendment that would get him in the end. The only thing that might tempt the justices to interpret it creatively and in Trump’s favour would be some sense of loyalty to him, but they don’t need his favour to stay in post, whereas they do need the present composition of the Supreme Court to remain as is for them to be certain they retain their jobs and their influence for as long as they want it. ---------- Post added at 18:40 ---------- Previous post was at 18:30 ---------- Quote:
There’s a very good reason why successful democracies are representative rather than direct. The US constitution can be altered with substantial bipartisan support at state and federal level in the US, amongst representatives who are democratically elected. The constitution is interpreted and enforced by the Supreme Court but its powers are not absolute. |
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Absolutely anyone….and no one in the current government (local or national) or in the judiciary can stop you from being on the ballot paper. Certainly no one in power from an opposing party can stop you. This is what I mean by the electorate being the final arbiter. Anyone can stand and the people decide. If in the US, the state government can decide or the state judiciary, or the Supreme Court can decide who is allowed to stand. Then the US is not the beacon of democracy it likes to think it is. You also have to ask the question. Was Jan 6th an insurrection? ……….no, obviously not. Did Trump plan and orchestrate an insurrection?………..no. Is it useful for the Democrats to accuse Trump of an insurrection? …………..absolutely yes, because then by interpreting the constitution in a certain way they can remove him from the ballot. It all makes sense now. |
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It seems to fit the definition quite well. Quote:
According to the subsequent investigation and hearings ; Quote:
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If you really think Jan 6th was an attempt to seize power of the US you need your head examining. Quote:
How did he assemble his mob and how did he mobilise them? What was his command and control structure. What were his plans to engage with the police authorities and military, in order to gain control of them? So he could take control of the capital? Trump was in charge of jack shit. It was a mediocre riot at best, an over exuberant protest at worst. Trump had no obligation to…..“to speak out in real time against the mob violence” or refuse to instruct his supporters to disband, or take any immediate actions to halt “attacks” on the Capitol. (I put attacks in commas as it was not an attack) He was not in control of those people, that is why, unless in front of a kangaroo court, he will not be found guilty of anything. I’m not a Trump fan boy, i think DeSantis is a better candidate, and it’s america so …whatever. But I do care about democracy wherever in the world, and the US is behaving like the very antithesis of what they’re supposed to stand for, and if america falls, the West will have a massive problem. |
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Both the UK and the US have codified the proposition that certain people are ineligible for office. Who they bar is based on prior experience. In the case of the US it was the civil war - they understandably decided they didn’t want senior Confederates who had taken up arms against the Union, renewing their mischief via elected office. The precise historical reasons why bankrupts are barred in the UK, I’ll leave someone else to look up. Quote:
I believe based on what I read that Trump’s actions amount to insurrection, and the incitement of it. However as I’ve already said IANAL and neither are you - I don’t think you have grounds for saying the matter is ‘obviously’ anything. Quote:
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A democrat blocking a republican (debatable) candidate. Quote:
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The Maine Secretary of State is the senior Election Officer, and she was elected by the Maine Legislature, not by public votes.
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I didnt say anything of the sort, nor do the definition(s). Even so, the point was to keep Trump in power by preventing the declaration of Bidens victory (they failed) - that could easily be defined as trying to seize power. Quote:
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Januar...Capitol_attack Quote:
[ Since he was still president at that point, he already had control of the Military ] |
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Almost everyone is elected to office in the US, or else is directly appointed by someone who was elected. Even local and state legal officials. I happen to think it’s a weakness rather than a strength in their system but it is what it is. Nevertheless … ‘Outcome X suits group A, therefore group A caused outcome X’ is a logical fallacy of the highest order. I’m sorry if you find my refusal to entertain it disappointing, however you’ve made a charge that requires evidence, not insinuations of bad faith. |
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2 from natural causes - Heart attacks, both outside the capitol building, and it’s unclear if one of those actually participated in the demonstration. 1 was from an accidental overdose of prescription medication for ADHD. 1 was accidentally shot by a capitol policeman, the woman that was shot was unarmed. All of the 4 above were Trump supporters. 1 policeman died from natural causes, a stroke, 8hrs after the demonstration, but his death as attributed to it. 4 policeman committed suicide, 3 days, 8 days and 6 months after incident, their deaths also attributed to Jan 6th. You need to read more. https://www.factcheck.org/2021/11/ho...-capitol-riot/ |
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All of which is besides the point. Insurrection is defined by what they intended to do, not the tools they used to do it. The intention was to halt the legal, democratic processes of the state, in order to prevent a democratic election being certified, with the aim of having the loser eventually declared the winner, so that the loser could remain in post. Trump incited a crowd of thousands to go from his rally to the Capitol in order to enact all of that. For hours after the effect of his words were clear to see he refused to use his powers as president or his personal influence over the mob to stop it. People were hurt, state property was destroyed and state officials had reason to fear for their lives.
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---------- Post added at 13:18 ---------- Previous post was at 12:44 ---------- Does anyone think that if Trump loses the next election, he would accept the result? |
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He won’t have a choice, but he’ll continue to bitch about it. It’s a shame he’s standing, Biden has a slim chance of beating him because some people just can’t bring themselves to vote for him. If DeSantis was the nominee it would be a landslide. ---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 17:34 ---------- Quote:
In his speech, that is mainly a rambling diatribe, about how the election was stolen and bullying Mike Pence to declare the results invalid, he never calls for anyone to storm the Capitol building, occupy the senate. He did say clearly Quote:
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The quote many refer to is Quote:
And then he ends, just about, with https://www.npr.org/2021/02/10/96639...eachment-trial Quote:
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https://www.politico.com/news/2021/0...rioters-455607 I’m not here to defend Trump, but I am here to question the whole insurrection malarkey. There have been tens of riots around the USA, if not more, against government, far larger and more deadly than Jan 6th by BLM and Antifa. Jan 6th was a riot, and I don’t care of the definition, it was far from an insurrection - and on that I’ll guess we have to disagree. |
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Pure Devil's Advocate stuff here:-
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It was a riot and a low level one at that. nothing more ,nothing less. |
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...b2470669.html#
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Even if she was correct on the constitutional procedure, Trump rather awkwardly lost the popular vote in 2016 and in 2020, so he maybe doesn’t really want a system in which the actual votes cast by individual citizens translate directly to support for one candidate or another. |
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https://wapo.st/3vqlheR
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Popcorn time.
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I think that Trump will win.
Then the UK/US special friendship will become a bit frosty. I'm not sure about Trump/Putin. |
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https://wapo.st/3SaUsny
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The only people winning are lawyers. The US justice system is biased , politicised and bonkers like the rest of the country. Every chance of guilty going free, and the innocent going down, depending on their wealth...
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If he doesn’t get elected he’s got a career in stand up ahead of him.
https://x.com/metalgearobama/status/...PUAs_rNhQLBD9Q (With apologies I can’t find a link not on X) |
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He may even find he has a captive audience before the year is out! :D |
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Back on topic, please
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No troubles for Trump in Iowa.
https://www.ft.com/content/7c0a19fd-...6-35d5bf0d12ea Admittedly in a weather impacted low turnout, but no indications that he wouldn't have won with a higher turnout. All the pundits I've listened to have said that it's a done deal that he'll get the nomination, even just off this one result. |
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I certainly think the only way to stop him winning the whole thing is in a courtroom.
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https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...-msnbc-1861186 ---------- Post added at 21:44 ---------- Previous post was at 21:42 ---------- Biden is incapable of debating Trump. So somehow they’ll stop that from happening, or just not have Biden run again. |
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I said before the Republicans seem determined to nominate the one person Biden could beat and the Democrats are determined to stick with the one guy who could lose to Trump.
Neither are at all popular. They're also both so old. It's just crazy what the United States is doing. Completely unhinged political system. I still think we brush past the fact that people invaded Congress to try and stop, maybe even harm or kill, those trying to confirm the results of the election. Is this something we see in unstable democracies, not ones like the US. Everyone just sort of moved on. I thought that would be the reality check for them and they would step back. |
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Many previous posts in this thread, where I have laid out that, that claim just doesn’t stack up. Quote:
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I don't know if he can close the border with an executive order, but if he can, then it's just a power any and every president has had. It is an odd power in the "greatest democracy" in the world that the president can invoke law with the stroke of a pen without consulting either House. But you could argue any president that has issued an executive order has acted like a dictator, and they all have. |
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---------- Post added at 18:54 ---------- Previous post was at 18:32 ---------- https://wapo.st/421hiS1 Quote:
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He’s just still whinging about the election. It’s as worrying as Kier Starmer saying he’s going to abolish the monarchy, he can’t. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68051757
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A generous interpretation would be that it was not due to Trump's cognitive issues that he did this. Instead, it could be argued that he was well aware it was nothing to do with Hailey but felt that the truth was less important than smearing an opponent. |
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New Hampshire Primary today, which Trump should win convincingly.
Only slight fly in the ointment is the fact that registered undeclared voters can vote in this Primary, which could affect the balance, and lessen the landslide. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...now-rcna134129 Quote:
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2 Attachment(s)
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1706017848
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...2&d=1706017848 Trump can still win Dixville Notch if only Mike Pence has the courage. |
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https://wapo.st/3vOYRnv
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He’ll appeal, he may end up paying out some of it, if not all. It has no bearing on his presidential race.
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All this, plus his behaviour during the hearings, has already had a bearing on the race. As a former president, his performance in his primaries ought to be understood as if he were the incumbent, in which circumstances he would face a token challenge if any. Obviously he is on course to win, but his win in NH was not nearly convincing enough - especially in a state where voters who are not registered republicans can vote. He isn’t going to win over those who didn't support him in 2020 and, anecdotally, there are plenty of never-Trump republicans who will hold their noses and vote for Biden rather than see Trump back in the White House. His antics during this trial play to the gallery well enough and energise those who already drank his Kool Aid. But will they convince any waverers? I can’t see it. |
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I can’t see how the Democrats will let Biden debate. It would be a dumpster 🔥 fire, to use the Americanism. It’s sad, it’s down to these two again. I wanted DeSantis, he still has time, but I fear what america …..and the world…….will be like in 2028. |
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If it doesn’t (and God help America if it doesn’t - on a plain reading of the constitution, the case is pretty clear cut. He certainly gave succour to insurrectionists even if one accepts - which I don’t - he didn’t directly involve himself), then being in jail doesn’t actually bar him from running for office. Though I doubt even America is mad enough to elect a president from behind bars. |
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So they'll all keep their heads down. Such is the sad state of the US atm. |
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The nutters are out in force this week.
Apparently the Superbowl is now being rigged in favour of Biden. (Thats like them saying the FA Cup in the UK is being rigged for Labour). |
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https://www.politico.com/news/2024/0...t-fox-00134866 |
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Donald Trump does not have presidential immunity, US court rules
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He'll appeal till it gets to the court where his mates are the 'judges'. These court judgements mean nothing in the end. The US will become the world's biggest dictatorship.
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He’ll pardon himself when he wins.
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1 Attachment(s)
Meanwhile, at the New York fraud hearing (not trial, as he’s been found liable), a letter from the Judge to the lawyers (both sides) involved in the case…
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...5&d=1707251074 Falsus in uno - "false in one thing, false in everything" Story here https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2491660.html |
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He allegedly lied about the size of Trump Tower?
Lock him up. |
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I get you’re now invested in the idea of Trump being badly done by, but try and look at what’s actually going on here. No need to drink any social media kool aid, just official court material is quite damning enough. |
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Whatever happen he will be the next president, sadly
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There is a lengthy but informative discussion here: https://open.substack.com/pub/snyder...utm_medium=web |
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It *isn’t* clear cut - that’s why the court is looking at it. |
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Tell us that you don't understand Section 3 of the 14th Amendment without telling us. ;)
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But looking directly at the events of Jan 6th. Any reasonable person would conclude that it was not an insurrection, it was at best a disturbance, at worst a riot……..but nothing on the scale of BLM. It wasn’t a coup, there was no organisation or direction or planned outcome. If you want to prosecute Trump I am 100% sure with a good constitutional lawyer you could argue that it meets the legal meaning of terms in the US constitution but that doesn’t mean it was, and just highlights what your end game is. You don’t want Trump on the ballot, that’s fine. It’s not up to us. But a very large % of Americans do, and as far as I can tell there’s no reason why shouldn’t be. True Democracy is electing whoever you choose, and if electing Trump is so abhorrent that you must override democracy to ensure it doesn’t happen, you have to ask yourself how much you’re really invested in democracy. |
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It's irrelevant how a few random Brits on the Internet might define it. |
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There are interesting times ahead, and for us distant observers the most rewarding approach (even if you tend to one side or the other) is not to pretend you have something definitely worked out, when you really, really haven’t. |
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The fact that Pence refused to do this doesn’t lessen the crime - if a bunch of people plan to rob a bank, but don’t do so by because they are stopped by the police before they complete the bank robbery, it’s still a crime (conspiracy to commit). Here’s the timeline on his attempts to pressure Pence to illegally overturn the Electoral College votes. https://abcnews.go.com/US/latest-fed...y?id=101918701 Quote:
- one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States applies to Trump's repeated and widespread efforts to spread false claims about the November 2020 election while knowing they were not true and for allegedly attempting to illegally discount legitimate votes all with the goal of overturning the 2020 election, prosecutors claim in the indictment. - one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding was brought due to the alleged organized planning by Trump and his allies to disrupt the electoral vote's certification in January 2021. - one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding is tied to Trump and his co-conspirators' alleged efforts after the November 2020 election until Jan. 7, 2021, to block the official certification proceeding in Congress. - one count of conspiracy against rights refers to Trump and his co-conspirators alleged attempts to "oppress, threaten and intimidate" people in their right to vote in an election. https://www.npr.org/2023/08/01/11914...ictment-counts In summary, Trump and his advisers spread false information about voter fraud, urged Republican state officials to undermine the results in states that Biden won, assembled false slates of electors and pressured Mike Pence, the vice president, to unilaterally toss out the legitimate results. |
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… all of which is likely why none of the legal argument reflected in the Snyder article even bothers discussing whether the mob outside Congress constituted an ‘insurrection’. The heart of the issue is the attempts to nobble the electoral college.
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Yup. Of course a lot of this has been reported in bits and pieces and discussed in various corners of Xitter for months, but the only aspect of the story that is widespread knowledge at the moment is the Capitol Hill mob on 6 January. The details of how strange groups of people claiming to be electors started turning up and trying to get in side doors to present their own college votes is proper banana republic stuff.
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It’s a curious one because it doesn’t address Section 3 directly at all, just Colorado’s right to do something that affects the entire federal election. If the SCoTUS ducks the issue by using that as an excuse not to take a difficult decision, then it leaves open the very real chance of Trump becoming president elect and someone challenging him on the basis of the constitution at that very late stage.
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If he isn’t criminally convicted, then it’s going to be too close to call, and the Dems share a chunk of the blame for that for allowing the Joe Show to shamble on in the way they have. They really needed an anointed successor two years ago, making clear he only ever intended to be a one-term president. I can’t believe they think it’s business as usual, going for a second term with someone who will be 86 at the end of the next presidential term - assuming he lives that long. |
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