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You could substitute the two names there for any two names on here and get the same conversation :D |
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As Chris said, COVID-19 is a COronaVIrus Disease discovered in 2019 - the illness basically. The virus which causes it is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus number 2 - SARS-COV-2 |
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What if, and I'm being hypothetical just like that graph - you know "imagining", the Omicron strain was so mild it was no worse than a bad cold and didn't kill anyone? That would kind of make that "hypothetical" graph a load of bollocks, wouldn't it? I mean hypothetically speaking. |
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If Omicron takes hold and Delta's still running why wouldn't they both make up the stats?
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The measures taken in the past such as social distancing, masks, handwashing and lockdowns would reduce flu levels as a handy side effect though. I suppose if you isolate due to COVID, you are less likely to get flu but that's only a couple of weeks out of circulation. What we really don't want is lots of people getting the flu while lots of people have COVID. That would clog things up rapidly in hospitals. The double whammy of COVID and flu vaccines is very helpful here. |
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(I would have thought working from home and wearing face masks would reduce the spread of flu.) |
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Experts from the universities of Göttingen and Cornell who did the study said their finding 'makes social distancing less important'.
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Flu has been around for generations so we have a good amount of herd immunity, which is bolstered by updated vaccines and by good hygiene and self-imposed isolation when ill. None of these measures and factors are enough on their own, and not even 100% collectively, so we lose up to 20,000 vulnerable people a year to flu. Covid-19 is still a novel virus, a virus where no immunity and no vaccines were present at the outset. Potentially everyone could have caught it in a very short time with devasting results if all the 1%ish (800,000+) of fatalities happened within twelve months and all those that needed treatment needed it during the same period. The measures taken, albeit rather late, prevented the worst case scenario of many more than 1% dying through lack of treatment from an overwhelmed health service. The situation now, barring highly lethal variants, is getting closer to being comparable with flu, but until we have the virus at a less than endemic level worldwide and until the vast majority have some level of immunity, Covid-19 has to be treated differently. |
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restated in this study https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/art...id-19-severity Quote:
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I remember some saying that flu and cold viruses basically strong-armed their way into our cells, preventing covid-19 from getting in and replicating.
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Also the fact that we have had 10.5M recorded cases in the U.K. and probably a more accurate figure many multiples of that and only 146K deaths. Perhaps the reason COVID is ultimately a very survivable illness is due to a level of pre-existing population immunity gained by exposure to other less harmful coronavirus? |
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It was, like a fair amount this Gov did (and I'm usually a tory), more hot air and publicity bluster than something which was actually going to make a difference. They do seem to be responding a lot better with the new HS compared to his predecessor who I never really liked. Javid seems to be more proportionate and considered in his actions and considers more than the "OMG we must get rid of covid" stance. I just wish they would mandate WFH as it's a lot more effective than the things they have done (aside from the travel controls, but they're little use if as is suspected there is community spread now). |
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As we follow Gauteng and their trends with Omicron the same rationale will justify the next lockdown. |
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Another lockdown? To quote someone, you’d have to see the bodies piling up first. Of course the bodies won’t pile up. Because without vaccines it’s a very survivable illness, with vaccines it’s more of an irritation than anything else. Also, Dishy Rishi isn’t going to pay for you to toss off the new year. No, the U.K. gravy train is not leaving the station. Therefore the economy needs to, and will, stay open. |
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You persistently see what you want to happen, not what's happening in reality. Omicron is here and unstoppable. The growth rate is baked in. The vaccines alone aren't enough. As for the rest of your post - hopeless optimism, quoting a proven liar and petty insults against furloughed workers aren't worthy of reply. Comrade Rishi will fund what is required when the time comes - it's inevitable. |
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If anything comes of any inquiry, it will be that in closing schools the negatives far outweighed any perceived benefit. Quote:
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So was Thanos.
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Not sure what being a school governor has to do with anything other than perhaps explaining an emotive and irrational response to the subject of pandemic management. Quote:
You may claim there's no real data, but unfortunately - as before - taking a British centric approach to data leads to being late to the table. My certainty is well placed. Give it a month, max. See I consider the data. I care about the subject. And I don't view it through an ideological prism of despising state intervention at all costs - even if it's saving jobs and lives. |
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You’ve been predicting “lockdown within a month” ever since summer. Even a broken clock is right twice a day - if there’s a lockdown of any sort this winter, you won’t have predicted it based on data. |
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You, however are not. Quote:
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We both know I've not predicted that - I have said at points if growth rates aren't kept in check, via other restrictions, a lockdown is inevitable as the emergency brake. Growth rates have fluctuated - in particular around school holidays - and finally vaccines for teenagers and boosters with mRNA vaccines are all positives. However they only push back so much. Against Delta the Government have found it's sweet spot of cases, hospitalisations and deaths that it can live with - R roughly 1. 50k/1k/200. Yet Omicron is out there - R is at least 2 it could be as high as 4. It throws the whole thing in the bin if the NHS is at 70-80% capacity. That's why this prediction is substantively different from the others. ---------- Post added at 23:22 ---------- Previous post was at 23:18 ---------- Quote:
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You're a school governor after all, I'm sure you could source your own empirical data if genuinely interested. |
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Well Pierre, I think we can substantively leave it there for a couple of weeks at least I'm not lowering myself to your petty insults. Our chips are in.
That said I'm not sure I'd want to be in your school. After all... Sentences start with a capital letter and end with a full stop. Basic literacy? Public health? Who knows where your interests lie. |
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Why is "more transmissible" far far worse than "more deadly" ? |
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Conjecture & speculation.. but with current ongoings will anyone take note?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/1697..._source=pushly |
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We'll see (or won't see) soon enough i guess |
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& the independent. Can just imagine the conversation. 'Right then chaps, we need to subvert some of the proles & the media due to getting caught out, anyone got any ideas? |
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Project Fear stepped up a gear again this evening.
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(If you even bothered to watch it, Whitty made a point of not saying they were rising atm). |
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Masks to be extended - but to where? Eating and drinking is impossible with a mask on, so no surprises there. Exercise is difficult with a mask on, singing is too (if you do it properly - I'm a singer and would find it difficult to sing with a mask on if not impossible, though I suppose people mumbling along to a hymn in church will probably be ok). Are we going to have the mask hokey cokey we had before in hospitality, which directly contravenes the current guidelines on the Gov site? If so why the u-turn? Though the current situation doesn't really go far enough (but covers essential trips). If you're in a museum you don't wear one in the museum itself but do in the shop? And if you're in a theatre, sat around the same people for hours, you don't, but in a shop where you're in for a matter of minutes not around the same people you do? Vax passports - putting aside how beneficial they actually are, then this was vague too. So he said about venues with certain capacity limits but what does this mean? Any place where 500 people will gather indoors needs one? At least the outdoors places over 10,000 means Derby County don't have to worry about it ;) And as I said the other day, WFH should have been done first. It also seems that the testing instead of isolation is a better compromise. If you don't have covid there's no reason why you should isolate and it gets the positive tests quicker. Early Jan review - for tightening restrictions again like last year? |
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680 hospitalisations a day in England in not a minor matter, especially when the number of infections is rising so rapidly(doubling every 3 days).
Eating and drinking by themselves are less of a transmission problem, but any talking aspect whilst having a meal or drink, IS more of a transmission problem. Anything that involves expelling more breath is more of a problem. Any contaminated air travels further. |
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Cases are going up, but not massively so (we are actually in the same territory as when unlocking, with schools due to finish in a week or so). But we don't know how much of this is Delta and how much is Omicron. The numbers of Omicron are likely to be some multiples higher than the actual figure, this is always true. And we don't know much about this variant yet. There is also the situation that hospitalisations and subsequently deaths lag cases by weeks. If as some models predict that Omicron cases will hit 100k a day by January, even if this takes over Delta, and has a similar hospitalisation rate, you'd be looking at double the current numbers of hospitalisations. If it's able to defeat the vaccines to the extent it makes this higher, then there will be an issue. This is simply buying time and makes a fair amount of sense. |
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Wfh vast majority of people will probably be loving that Masks, hardly a major imposition. I was however surprised regarding vaccine passports |
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From memory, it was something like 0.9% of all infections on his graph ? Quote:
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Vax passports - well, quite. Given that the vaccines still do work against Delta in terms of hospitalisations, but have a marked drop off with infection against 2 doses compared to original strains or Alpha, then even then there was no guarantee if someone had a vax passport that they weren't going to have covid. And that Omicron has more of a drop off, so there will no doubt be more double jabbed people who get it - not too surprising considering this represents the vast majority here now. It seems that the "alternative" of a negative LFT is ultimately much more useful. ---------- Post added at 19:30 ---------- Previous post was at 19:28 ---------- Quote:
I'm sure you understand exponential growth, so not going to emphasise what that means. But if it can overtake Delta, which the signs are that it can (it's more transmissible which seems to be the key) and that if it can infect more people who are double jabbed, this number will no doubt get very high very quickly. And as we have no idea how many of these cases will reach hospital, if the jabs still work against this, or if the milder illness is the case and they won't get that sick anyway, then they have to assume it will, and try and slow it down. |
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At this moment in time any increase in restrictions is a speculative move, not grounded in any data. The proposed restrictions themselves are arbitrary in nature and are also not grounded in any data. I haven’t done what I’m told, just because I’ve been told, since I was a child, and I’m not starting again now. |
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Keep drinking red wine in copious amounts, seems to work wonders.;)
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I'm guessing it means you can catch it quicker ? As yet Ive not seen a definition, just the phrase thrown about a lot. Is it more likely to make you seriously ill ? Is it more deadly than delta, the same, or is it milder ? Again, Ive seen nothing so far to support it being one or the other. |
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Sky News has a good explanation
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There is also some evidence that the incubation period of Omicron may be shorter, which would result in faster growth even if R was the same.
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The graph Chris Whitty didn't show. 0 deaths so far.
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...0&d=1638998875 |
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No doubt it's been around longer than it's been detected, these things always are. But let's not also forget that we don't have enough time to assess this yet. Chris Whitty is an expert in this field and a doctor. It is probably against some moral or professional code somewhere for them to lie about things even if the politicians insist on pushing a certain narrative. I do not for one second think that reactions should be based on a perceived risk or a potential risk not an actual risk, and there is a fair amount with this still unknown. For example we do not know for sure that this is milder and by how much. Indeed if it is milder the increased transmissibility may still overwhelm the NHS in the short term, if it's not mild enough. We are only getting so far theoretical data on vaccine escape done in labs, as opposed to real world impact on people, but then, there is plenty of evidence people who have had 2 doses can catch symptomatic Omicron. We don't know for sure how much yet nor how much more transmissible it is. By putting the brakes now on a few lower-risk areas (such as working from home) whilst there is still a lot to be determined may be enough to slow it down whilst it is assessed. And I think that once it is assessed if it does turn out to be something which doesn't cause mass hospitalisation or deaths relative to other variants and despite the increased transmissibility they will probably reverse it, but we don't know this yet - by the time we do, if we haven't put some brakes on it (let's not forget even now we don't have a lot of restrictions, there's not a lot you can't do, even if you have to wear a mask) it may be too late. I suppose the two facts people hold out for are bound to change over time: 1. that no-one in the UK has been hospitalised with Omicron (Javid said so, though that may have changed since) 2. the WHO said no-one has died from it |
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Thank you Hugh.
So still largely a lot of "if/maybe/might/could" guesswork - until more information on what is actually happening comes along. I seem to recall this same thing around July 17th when cases were still rising at the point of restrictions being removed - predictions were even more cases, but what actually happened was a fall over the rest of July, much to everyones surprise. |
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Once it has made someone ill then this is the course of the disease, we don't know this for sure yet, as it will probably take a few weeks. But early indications are that it is milder than delta though this has been measured in a younger population. Transmissibility is the basic idea of how the virus can infect others. So I suppose there are various factors at play, such as how much virus an infected person can emit, how much virus is needed to cause an infection, and how long it takes. So, i've heard people say recently that omicron can cause infection maybe 2-3 days after exposure, which I think is similar to delta, and less than the 5-7 days for Alpha and the original Wuhan strains. In itself that will make it more transmissible as it will spread through the population quicker. I guess this effect is down to the more optimised binding to the ACE2 receptor where it enters the cells. Not seen anything for omicron but they certainly said somewhere for delta that the viral load in an infected patient was higher, so it got around more, because people simply had more of it in them when they got infected, which means more virus is emitted, and if the infective dose is the same, this means you have a higher chance of getting infected. If it takes less virus to infect someone (e.g. because it is more efficient at entering cells) then that will increase it too... If you look for example at this (though I suppose you could look at anything on a quick search) you'll see it's a multi-factor thing: Quote:
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Kids are super spreaders of any virus, there is no doubt about it. If you look closely at the stats the virus has invariably gone down when the schools are closed (whether forcibly, as in March-Sept 2020, and Jan-March 2021, or during normal operations such as Oct 2021 and Jul-Sept 2021). Whilst they may well be mildly affected by this virus, there is always the risk of breakthrough infections into older age groups, who maybe unvaccinated, or since vaccines don't give complete protection, where the infection escapes existing immunity. If people think carefully about their Christmas mixing, and get their boosters when called, no doubt we'll see the same effect again. |
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I'm totally against closing schools so we have to let this ride. But, this involves acceptance of the inevitable (as you quoted) amongst TPTB, that kids will get the virus and spread it, indeed a milder illness. Single jabbing secondary kids, or any kids, is unlikely to stop this, not with a more transmissible Omicron. Whatever is required to statistically reduce transmission of the virus (not just reduce hospitalisation) should be the long term solution. Now it's been said today that 3 doses of Pfizer or Moderna with omicron is basically the same as 2 doses with Delta. So the boosters need to be accelerated including 4th doses to the more at risk. 2nd doses to primary kids, and 3rd to secondary age kids who let's face it are physically adults in the main. Nothing else will do but given the dose gap and logistics anywhere is a long way off and that protection needs to be more or less global which is the greater issue. |
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There is nothing of any substance in that at all, but according to you it’s a “good explanation”. FFS. |
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It’s a good explanation of how exponential growth "could" affect numbers of cases/hospitalisations/deaths, not "would" - the article clearly states that.
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You can’t make policy that affects your freedoms on “ guesswork” ---------- Post added at 22:23 ---------- Previous post was at 22:21 ---------- Quote:
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It’s an explanation of how exponential growth in infections work.
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It is suspected to be more transmissible than Delta, so will more likely outcompete it. It is suspected to be able to evade vaccine immunity. It is suspected to be able to evade immunity from previous infection. (though with the latter two points this is going to be partial but no doubt significant). It is suspected to be a milder illness, though the data is not known as to how much and how much this will affect hospitalisations. There is enough cause for the WHO to designate it a VOC There is enough evidence for community transmission i.e. confirmed cases from people who have no links to the affected areas in Africa There is a possibility that this will cause a high number of infection within days which may lead to a hospitalisation level which could overwhelm the available capacity By the time you have seen this effect it is probably too late. I don't see the issue in actions which won't massively affect a lot of people. Yes chin diapers are annoying but they do have a mild at the most conservative estimate, effect on transmission. Vax passes at least ensure people have some protection even if it's minimal and let's face it it's in your interests to protect yourself and get the vaccine If these actions reduce transmission whilst the full facts are determined it could stop the infections etc spiralling out of control. If it's not going to work, they should and probably will relax them. |
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TBF you’ve laid it out, and managed to say nothing we don’t already know Quote:
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From the BBC ..
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So I guess it would just be inside the building, before you sit down for the film. (The same possibly for theatres as well ?) |
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Pretty much the way things are in Scotland, as those restrictions were never lifted. However here you’re meant to have a mask on in a restaurant except when seated at your table so the English rules are still slightly more relaxed in that respect. In cinemas in my experience most people treat them like restaurants and masks come off as soon as people are seated and remain off throughout. As almost everyone is nursing a bucket of popcorn and a large drink it would be very difficult to determine if anyone was really breaking the rules.
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I mentioned a while back that the company I work for mandated vaccination for all employees in the US. Well, the results are in - 0.9% of our employees refused the jab by the deadline and are now seeking new employment. I thought that was a pretty good strike rate to be honest. Mind you, this is a healthcare company and is based in the north east US where attitudes are pretty pro-vaccine compared to some other states
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I now don't take much notice of the Covid stuff spouted by all and sundry, I think I've become immune to it . . not Covid itself (although maybe, possibly, could be, who knows) . . . but the amount of news, updates, expert opinion and analysis thrown about and repeated every 10 minutes.
Information Overload . . . Just bugger off, take your carefully manipulated graphs, charts and spreadsheets and shove them where the sun don't shine. |
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Eating and drinking is an exception and always has been. Taking it off and on when moving around is a bit silly for me in any context. Just distance people and encourage table service. |
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The fear mongering has started.
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Highlight worst-case scenario, and if it isn’t that bad, take credit for the measures in place… |
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.... or both.
Get everyone afraid of their own shadows, and then take the 'credit' when the world doesnt actually end. ---------- Post added at 15:54 ---------- Previous post was at 15:50 ---------- According the the BBC reports (about an hour ago) ; The UK records 249 new Omicron cases, of these, 248 cases were in England and one in Scotland. Quote:
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This is being challenged in court though... |
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Though Javid is probably not wrong when he suggests that the amount may be a lot higher. It is always the situation though, people don't get tested because they think it's a cold, or because they don't have a fever, or various situations. Or if they don't have any symptoms at all. But then the studies in things like zoe have always said that the amount of covid is higher than the testing. It's too early I suppose, as we have too few omicron cases (you'd expect the vast majority of omicron cases would show the s-gene dropout which isn't usually observed in delta when a PCR test is done) to see if these are just going to replace delta, or have been seen where you don't have a significant delta outbreak, e.g. where people have come back from abroad, isolated and tested positive for omicron on a PCR, then given it to family or the kids have gone to school or something, which leads to a small amount of spread which is localised. |
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I can put my hand up and say "I have never had a test"
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