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The Brexit dividend is already being delivered. The short term difficulties will be overcome, obviously. Also we will develop new products and new markets as we join other trade associations. |
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Countries do most of their trade with those closest to them - as British business has repeatedly pointed out. This is due to the gravity of trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravit...de#:~:text=The gravity model of international trade in international,evidence that trade tends to fall with distance." |
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Well, of course these issues exist. But bringing this up (again) in the manner that you have (and are doing again in your post) is pure Remainer dogma.
I could recant what I've said if the weight of forum opinion sided with you. Remember what I have said: Quote:
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One problem is with food products is that they are ready now, you often can't just wait to sort things out. The lead times are also less easy to vary than "dead stuff".
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55904189
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UK border chaos as trucks get waivers - trade rules SCRAPPED in angry scenes TENSIONS over the Northern Ireland protocol have escalated into "troubling" threats to trade staff, forcing post-Brexit food checks at Larne and Belfast ports to be suspended over safety concerns. https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...in-poots-daera The graffiti objected to the perceived "Irish Sea border" imposed as a result of terms of the Brexit trade deal with the EU. Ulster loyalists, who oppose any divergence between Northern Ireland the rest of the UK, are believed to be behind the messages. |
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How short-term is short term? It's now over a month since we started operating according to the terms of the trade agreement and things don't look fantastic. That's even with EU imports not being checked, that only happens in July. Seafood company Samways explains that the issues are more fundamental than just teething troubles. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-55847259 And short-term seems to be permanent if you're a shellfisherman. EU shellfish import ban permanent, UK fishing industry told |
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The Remainers see it as disaster after only 1 month.
Reasonable people say it'll sort itself out in due course or words to that effect. |
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Highlighting issues is not saying it’s a disaster -you’re putting forward a straw man argument that no one has stated.
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These straw men get everywhere on here !
Back in the real world firms are seeing increased costs. E.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-...shire-55894650 The fall out is coming which is going to cost jobs. |
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Someone on another forum from NI, has highlighted that something as simple as getting a bike delivered from the mainland is proving to be a nightmare. Whilst on the other side, getting potatoes sent to the mainland from NI is also a problem, not helped by requiring fixed transport days (for paperwork), at a time of year when weather can affect this. Old system allowed for flexibility round the weather.
Is this also a straw man? |
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On this business of the representative status of the EU: Is the EU a state or an international organisation?
Clearly it is an international organisation because it derives its competences from the 27 member states. Simples. Accordingly, the 27 states have ambassadorial diplomatic missions in the UK. The EU cannot enjoy that status - only that of an international organisation. Simples. The moment that the UK accords ambassadorial status to the EU is the moment that we recognise the EU as a state - that would be a state without a police force, without an army and without the principal competences associated with a nation state. So, I'm enjoying the howls of protests coming from that pompous organisation. |
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I really do sympathise with groups being badly affected by this. As I've said before if you have "live" product you can't just keep on shelf for a while to sort it all out.
We could help by sorting out tax on smaller purchases back to the EU status i.e. pay tax at point of purchase at rate and to country of purchase. It's not like we were collecting the tax anyway unless we looked at the rebate in that way. |
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Just a shame it is so complicated to send stuff to NI. |
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This could help wth the cross border issues, giving people and businesses time to adapt.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-b...-idUSKBN2A312V Quote:
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Meeting just finished. No conclusions on the requested teo-year extension yet.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ster-brussels/ For paywall users, the above referenced article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has it in a nutshell. I'll quote that jewel, itself a statement made by Daniel Stelter, Germany’s corporate guru: Quote:
He also points out that Brussels is only interested in power. He exemplifies this through the Brexit negotiations (power not trade), through the vaccine negotiations (which, he says, were price led not solution driven). He underlines deep German suspicion over how VDL would use the recovery fund and how close it would bring the EU to fiscal union, which Germany would have to bankroll. Boy are we right to be forging our own destiny. Btw, James O'Brian on LBC today is knocking the Guymin for going "cap in hand" to the EU to ease the NI situation. He doesn't emphasise that the UK have the threat ready of invoking its own Article 16 measures. Indeed we should in order to test the resolution mechanism. |
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So a virulently Anti-EU correspondent in a virulently Anti-EU newspaper says something Anti-EU?
<shocked face>... ;) |
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We, on the other hand, if we do choose to go down that route, must do so fully observing the letter and the spirit of the rules. BTW who is Guymin? |
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Government I guess
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Some good news that Andrew may not post.
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Does Europe like our type of chocolate?
I really dislike theirs - too much cocoa. It's akin to the British Sausage which contains the correct amount of sawdust compared with the over-meaty European kind. For balance, Polish mustard is the best along with Polish sour cucumbers (aka Salzgurken in German). I though Juncker was bad, but VDL ... |
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Boris Johnson said he'd never agree to an Irish Sea border only to agree to one but to deny its existence. He now acknowledges there is one but says there mustn't be one. :confused:
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It's right that the Guvmin should be chipping away at the Trade Agreement. The EU opened the door with its Article 16 nonsense.
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You might be partially right about time being the cure - except that the status quo on sending food etc to NI would prolong unreasonable disaster.
In case one might respond "but that's what we signed up to", there's nothing wrong with trying to rectify the unintended consequences. If the EU say no to Gove, then there's little point in pretending that they are "our friends in Europe"; they become the enemy to a certain degree. Gove is after two more years of grace so that we can build our software to accurately populate the crazy forms (70 pages I understand for a fish consignment to the EU). If they are "our friends", they'll say yes. |
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Much of the detail of the NI Protocol was left to be decided by the Joint Committee. Any complications will be because the EU is being difficult, as usual.
IIRC The supermarkets said there would be no problems shipping their stock from GB to NI. |
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55575988 https://www.newfoodmagazine.com/news...and-shortages/ Some foods can no longer be exported from NI to GB. Quote:
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So, the crunch point is are they "our friends in Europe?". If not, there's little point bothering with them to any greater extent than we would bother with other non-friends such as Belarus.
It's clear who are friends are, including: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA, Portugal, Sweden, Israel, Singapore and prolly a good few others. |
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EDIT: My remark above does not include extending the WA. I should have picked that up. |
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It would've involved the WHOLE of the WA being extended. The 2 year offer was made in April of last year. As I have to keep pointing out, the failure of the Joint Committee(ie the EU) is the biggest problem. They were the ones responsible for the detail of how things were going to be implemented. |
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As always, you have to ask if the deal is so bad, is the Government;
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Stating something erroneous multiple times does not make it correct. ;) ---------- Post added at 12:47 ---------- Previous post was at 12:35 ---------- Quote:
I think the issue is that the government was fixated on a deadline of 31st December 2020 to end the transition period as it would feel like failure to have another extension. So, it's more a case of sign now, we'll sort the mess out afterwards but the electorate and history books will show we started the new trade deal on 1st January 2021. A long way of saying a) Incompetent but probably competent in keeping the electorate on board ie survival which is most government's aim. |
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From your position as a Remainer, trade would take precedence over the Leavers' perception of sovereignty. We have different perceptions. But yes, I've never been a Boris fan. But then you prolly wouldn't approve of my alternative preference. |
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Ah yes, Mr "Will the supermarkets buy the shellfish the EU will not take and work with our fishing industry to sell it to U.K. buyers?"...
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Well, this guy obviously didn't get the memo.
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I have a friend in Ireland that says it's impacting Ireland, with plenty of supermarkets with empty shelves and most of the goods to Ireland come through the UK.
Maybe R.o.I should have worked a bit harder with the UK to impress upon the EU to avoid these Irish Sea issues. |
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2016. Let's leave the EU to get rid of Brussels bureaucracy tying up business.
2021. 71 pages of paperwork for a single lorry of fish https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55887043 Quote:
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The EU has shown us its true colours. As you've said before, let's move on; I say let's make our way in the world. Sod the EU. |
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It's the price of that sweet, sweet sovereignty |
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But I do hope that you're not also revelling on the EU's behalf of the really true colours displayed in last week's Article 16 fiasco. |
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There's no plans to get an extension to the rules of fish to mainland Europe. That's done and dusted. A work-around might be to land the fish in continental ports but this is no good unless you're near to the Continent. It's the island of Ireland trade situation that Michael Gove is now hoping for an extension on. |
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Your point about the fish is correct as is my point that this is early days. |
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I think there has been a degree of not recognising what the SM and CU gave us and that has only become clear now we are not part of it. It's the non-tariff barriers that are causing the pain. I'm not sure what the answer is - do we concentrate on customers with lower non-tariff barriers/standards going forward? The whole article 16 thing was a mess, I agree. Trade heads got involved without consulting on the political ramifications. Happily it was nipped in the bud before it was enacted. I have read a good explainer as to why it happened by Tony Connelly, an Irish journalist and it was due to the fudge that is the Irish agreement and I kind of get it but the response, in Tony Connellys word himself 'was a horrendously disproportionate solution, sledgehammer meet nut etc, and we've seen the fall out' |
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The whole point of any deal is to avoid everything that is required by everybody else that is not part of any deal. Either we have some sort of a deal with the EU, or we're to be treated as anybody else. Which is it?
Any difficulties and complications are at the behest of the EU, especially Ireland strangely enough. |
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People have grown used to the lack of bureacuracy that being in the single market and customs union provided. They don't realise it was one of the benefits of EU membership and not something a country automatically enjoys. I think technology has its part to play but the extra costs and delays generated are damaging. There's also the competitiveness factor. If you're based in France, you can grow outside your home country quite easily just by expanding your existing infrastructure. If in the UK, once you want to export to Europe, things go up a notch and you might be looking for EU warehousing. The long-term consequence could see smaller UK companies being picked off by European ones as the UK companies have decided against that bigger leap. |
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Always looking for the positives eh, Andrew.;)
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But sometimes negative. Like when I posted the damning - against the EU - La Republica interview with the head of AstraZenecca. But we need to acknowledge that for a lot of smaller businesses trying to trade with the EU at the moment can be tough. That's due to our third country status. No amount of back-slapping over vaccine procurement changes this. |
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I think there is some confusion in the general media over what actually happened. Even if you don't subscribe to the explanation that it was a draft paper that was never enacted, triggering Article 16 requires them to notify the joint committee immediately and a week long period of consultation to be initiated. We are not in a week long period of consultation and as far as I know, the joint committee were never informed so it was never triggered. |
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of EU defender. What the EU tried to do is well reported, e.g.: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...diplomatic-row Quote:
We all know this and you're the only member of the forum so far to appear to defend the EU's high handed action that they were forced to withdraw. |
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[QUOTE=Sephiroth;36069658]I've no idea why you let yourself come across as a sort of EU defender. What the EU tried to do is well reported, e.g.: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...diplomatic-row They didn't indicate that they would initiate the joint committee process and gave the clear impression that they weren't going to but intended acting unlawfully in terms of the Trade Deal./rish Protocol. We all know this and you're the only member of the forum so far to appear to defend the EU's high handed action that they were forced to withdraw. This is exactly the kind of thing I'm questioning. Depending on your choice of news source, they either triggered it and rowed back (not provided for in the annex) or threatened it, whether deliberately or accidentally through a lesser bod not realising the implications. They can't not initiate the joint committee process because, at least from my reading, that is the mechanism for triggering Article 16. IANAL though and happy to be corrected. I'm not defending their actions or intent, just trying to determine what they actually did and from my reading of the actual Article 16 and Annex 7, I don't think they did. For reference, the Protocol can be read in full here. |
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[QUOTE=Paddy1;36069677]Is it though? I recognise and understand the reaction to the suggestion that they pull the kind of stunt they were obviously intending to, at some level. The reaction of all other parties to the agreement makes it obvious it would have been a bad move on their part. I'm simply question what the actually did.
I'm not sure it was. Having read the actual text of the Article and supporting Annex 7 which details the actual procedure to be followed (it's disturbingly short), there is no take-backsies clause and it states that the initiating party will "without delay notify the <other party>" and "immediately notify enter into consultations". None of this is happening. I've no idea where your quoted text is from. Link? Quote:
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I also highlighted "If the application of this Protocol leads to ...", meaning any effect has to already be happening and will continue to happen. It's not meant to be for unlikely hypotheticals. It's not a case of "might lead to...". |
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Did notification take place? Is there a consultation? Considering is a very ambiguous word here. Either side will have positions that they might take. I don't think that means they have to inform the other party until that position becomes policy. Boris is considering exactly the same thing. Has he notified the EU? Yes, they put their position up on their web site, as they do with lots of documentation that has been drafted. They don't just post policy. There's no doubt it was a consideration to trigger Article 16 but no action has taken place to initiate it. Quote:
There is no process in progress that can currently lead to anything as there is no consultation taking place. |
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The much more likely hypothetical example, would've been that UK vaccines would've been taken from NI to Ireland. The regulation is headed "Brussels, 29.1.2021 , SEC(2021) 71 final". The regulation wasn't just about invoking article 16, but the whole control of vaccines to other countries, and not just the UK. Action was taken to start it. How else were the EU countries that were going to have to implement it, starting within a matter of hours. They were going to have to implement it on the 30th, and the regulation was issued on the 29th. The invoking of Article 16 was never publicly raised beforehand, only the possibility of tracking and control of vaccine shipments. Nobody at all was talking about invoking article 16 in connection with vaccines. That was quickly shut down after people found out about it after the regulation was actually issued. Nobody was able to shut it down before the 29th. |
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As I replied to @Sephiroth, I'm not defending the actions or intentions of the EU regarding the movement of vaccines. I find the idea of cutting off the supply of medical supplies to anyone obnoxious.
I was simply trying to determine whether or not Article 16 had been triggered and it seems you're saying it wasn't. The reason I was trying to nail this down is that a lot of the media state, or at least give the impression, that they did trigger it and for instance, therefore it's now perfectly acceptable for Boris to trigger it. It's the whole basis of the DUPs Trigger Article 16 petition that's doing the rounds. The misinformation around, particularly on our local media and social media is astounding at the minute. Edit to add, I did misread your quote which stated "protocol leads to" so thank you for the correction. |
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I took another look at the Protocol. I believe that the EC acted under the emergency provisions allowing immediate implementation of the announced measure.
It seems to me that they did actually trigger it and very quickly reversed that. I'm obviously willing to be corrected. As to Boris triggering Article 16, he would be being advised to provided notice (rather than going for immediacy) so they can get round the table to test the Joint Committee mechanism. If necessary he can implement a week later (I think). |
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Any invoking of article 16 by the UK, wouldn't be based upon being anti-EU, but of helping NI and indeed Ireland itself. |
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BUT Northern Ireland is part of the EU Single Market for all intents and purposes so, in theory, you could send UK restricted medicines to Northern Ireland and then freely ship them to the EU |
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---------- Post added at 12:42 ---------- Previous post was at 12:14 ---------- This does not make pleasant reading. I hope Michael Gove steps up to the challenge. Quote:
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There is also now a requirement for British exporters to have a named EU-based importer on their goods. This only comes into effect the other way round on 1st January 2022 for EU countries exporting to the UK. |
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What may not be down are the imports from the EU to the UK.. |
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Dover to be representative all ports (which is what the article refers to) then I fail to see the relevance ? |
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A bit more than temporary disruption. This is not the levelling up the north of England was promised. The owner tells it straight. "“All we have had is bullshit from the government, promises that haven’t been kept."
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-forced-close |
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These folk have right idea https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...ames-x80q6kxcg |
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For those beyond the paywall: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...aign=DM1334686
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Plus we are in lockdown so restaurants are shut. |
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