Cable Forum

Cable Forum (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/index.php)
-   Current Affairs (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/forumdisplay.php?f=20)
-   -   Coronavirus (https://www.cableforum.uk/board/showthread.php?t=33709417)

Mad Max 16-10-2020 14:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone (Post 36054014)
Liverpool say they had no say in the gym closures according to their mayor.


:shrug:

Pierre 16-10-2020 14:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054010)
Burnham supports National Lockdown, just like Starmer.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...rnham-12104944

I understand now. He just doesn't want a Tory lockdown, he wants a Labour lockdown.

that's perfectly clear then.

Hugh 16-10-2020 15:24

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054017)
I understand now. He just doesn't want a Tory lockdown, he wants a Labour lockdown.

that's perfectly clear then.

He agrees to a National Lockdown by BoJo, but not a local lockdown, as he doesn’t agree with the explanation given by the Government, and he states that the Government advisor says a National Lickdown is necessary.

Hope this helps...

papa smurf 16-10-2020 15:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054023)
He agrees to a National Lockdown by BoJo, but not a local lockdown, as he doesn’t agree with the explanation given by the Government, and he states that the Government advisor says a National Lickdown is necessary.

Hope this helps...

How can a lickdown stop the virus ?

Pierre 16-10-2020 16:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054023)

Hope this helps...

Not really, but thanks for trying.

joglynne 16-10-2020 16:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Gtr Manchester has been in special measures since July. The new tier 2 would actually ease one of the things we have had to do. No visitors to our homes ibut we would be now able to meet in our gardens. SO having been in the equivilant to the new tier 2 for 3 months we are in a strong position to say that it won't work. Gtr Manchester has seen its levels rise week after week. to the point when schools and the universities came back on line the figures were spiraling to the highest in the country.

When the equivilant tier 2 didn't work why should we believe that, against medical advise/predictions, tier 3 will do any better to help the NHS. The only thing that will happen is that more companies will have to close becaue there is nothing in place to help them stay open and even more people will become unemployed.

Gtr Manchester is not trying to score any points in the Party War. the Councillors, Mayors and MP come from all Parties.

The people who live in Gtr Manchester are royally pissed off at the attitude of the Goverment who refuse to see that we want a better way to try to bring our figures down when we have already proved that their way will not work. Andy Burnham is not playing party politics he is fighting for his people's survival.

This isn't about us wanting special treatment it's about us wanting a better option. Close everything for 2/3 weeks. Give England a chance to slow down the infection rates, stop making decisions based purely on how much help costs. Oh and mybe claw back some of the money paid out to their mates.

I am not an economist or scientist and I have no political axe to grind. I just live in one of the Gtr Manchester Boroughs and I have had enough.

Maggy 16-10-2020 16:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
What we NEED is an effective test and track system. One that is easily available within one's town.:mad:

denphone 16-10-2020 16:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by joglynne (Post 36054033)
Gtr Manchester has been in special measures since July. The new tier 2 would actually ease one of the things we have had to do. No visitors to our homes ibut we would be now able to meet in our gardens. SO having been in the equivilant to the new tier 2 for 3 months we are in a strong position to say that it won't work. Gtr Manchester has seen its levels rise week after week. to the point when schools and the universities came back on line the figures were spiraling to the highest in the country.

When the equivilant tier 2 didn't work why should we believe that, against medical advise/predictions, tier 3 will do any better to help the NHS. The only thing that will happen is that more companies will have to close becaue there is nothing in place to help them stay open and even more people will become unemployed.

Gtr Manchester is not trying to score any points in the Party War. the Councillors, Mayors and MP come from all Parties.

The people who live in Gtr Manchester are royally pissed off at the attitude of the Goverment who refuse to see that we want a better way to try to bring our figures down when we have already proved that their way will not work. Andy Burnham is not playing party politics he is fighting for his people's survival.

This isn't about us wanting special treatment it's about us wanting a better option. Close everything for 2/3 weeks. Give England a chance to slow down the infection rates, stop making decisions based purely on how much help costs. Oh and mybe claw back some of the money paid out to their mates.

I am not an economist or scientist and I have no political axe to grind. I just live in one of the Gtr Manchester Boroughs and I have had enough.

A excellent rationally thought out post jo.:tu:

---------- Post added at 16:49 ---------- Previous post was at 16:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36054034)
What we NEED is an effective test and track system. One that is easily available within one's town.:mad:

+1

RichardCoulter 16-10-2020 17:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36053966)
Have the amounts paid year on year increased massively as you claim?

Interest rates are at an all time low. The cost of debt has never been cheaper. Government debt generally isn’t paid in instalments the way a household loan is. As demonstrated the erosion in the real terms value of the debt by inflation incentivises the Government to never repay the debt - simply kick it down the road with further borrowing.

The Bank of England has now asked banks to gear up for negative interest rates!!!

---------- Post added at 17:20 ---------- Previous post was at 17:17 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36053969)
I don’t know about the instalments. Certainly, if our obligation is just to pay the debt at a fixed interest rate at the end of the period, it would be, as you intimate, a good ruse.

Let’s just hope interest rates remain low, then.

Low interest rates negatively affect those without mortgages etc who have capital saved. If negative interest rates become a reality, it will actually cost people money to have savings!!

These are likely to be older people who are more likely to be Tory voters.

On the plus side, it might make people think it's not worth saving and they will spend it instead, which will help the economy. There again we may see people once again stuffing their savings in cash under their bed.

Hugh 16-10-2020 21:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054032)
Not really, but thanks for trying.

Ah, well, I tried.

I can explain it to you, but I can’t understand it for you... ;)

---------- Post added at 21:26 ---------- Previous post was at 21:25 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36054031)
How can a lickdown stop the virus ?

Go for it... :D

jfman 16-10-2020 21:32

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36054038)
The Bank of England has now asked banks to gear up for negative interest rates!!![COLOR="Silver"]

Low interest rates negatively affect those without mortgages etc who have capital saved. If negative interest rates become a reality, it will actually cost people money to have savings!!

These are likely to be older people who are more likely to be Tory voters.

On the plus side, it might make people think it's not worth saving and they will spend it instead, which will help the economy. There again we may see people once again stuffing their savings in cash under their bed.

I can't see anyone taking the risk of shovelling thousands of pounds under the bed to save themselves losing a fraction of one per cent on interest rates - if that was passed on to the savings end of the market.

pip08456 16-10-2020 21:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Over reaction?

https://news.sky.com/video/liverpool...olice-12104755

jfman 16-10-2020 21:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 36053964)
Yes, I get that, jfman. But we still have to pay back the instalments for those debts in the meantime, which have increased massively with the increased borrowing.

Fundamentally Old Boy, no Government, anywhere in the world has any sincere intention of ever repaying debts. They intend to find someone else to lend to them at a later date to repay the initial creditor.

Inflation can erode that over time. Similarly so can economic growth (and tax receipts presumably - not in real terms economically but in practice for the budget). The question Governments really ask themselves is can they fund the cost of borrowing - the interest essentially.

Inflation does erode the amount borrowed and Governments continue to throw more debt on top. Why? Because money now is worth more than money when it's due. Will we be ever unable to pay? Not for debt borrowed in pounds sterling, no. Because the Bank of England - the Central Bank - acts as the lender of last resort.

UK GDP 2019: £2.21trn. Interest on Government debt £0.05trn.

1andrew1 16-10-2020 21:44

Re: Coronavirus
 
Good to see a company making an honest living and being rewarded for it in these difficult times. ;)

Quote:

Serco expects profits hike after test and trace contracts extended

The forecast increase is likely to fuel the political controversy around the use of private contractors in the troubled scheme.

Outsourcing giant Serco has raised its revenue and profits forecasts for 2020 as a result of the growth in work with the global pandemic.

Updating the London Stock Exchange in an unscheduled announcement, the company, which is involved in providing the UK government's test and trace scheme, said it had achieved strong revenue growth in the three months from July.

It highlighted extensions to its contracts to provide test sites and call handlers, which the firm said was "an indication of our customer's satisfaction with the quality of work we have delivered".
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ended-12105492

jfman 16-10-2020 21:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36054071)

Depends on the steroid use in the gym I suppose.

---------- Post added at 21:46 ---------- Previous post was at 21:46 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36054073)
Good to see a company making an honest living and being rewarded for it in these difficult times. ;)


https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...ended-12105492

A success story :confused:

Pierre 16-10-2020 22:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054067)
Ah, well, I tried.

God loves one

Quote:

I can explain it to you, but I can’t understand it for you... ;)
In the world of IT, a user interface is very much like a joke, if you have to explain it, it’s not very good.

Same applies here.

jfman 16-10-2020 22:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054081)
God loves one

In the world of IT, a user interface is very much like a joke, if you have to explain it, it’s not very good.

Same applies here.

In fairness Pierre, you'd argue against any restrictions, against all of the science, in the name of saving an economy that is beyond saving.

RichardCoulter 16-10-2020 23:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054070)
I can't see anyone taking the risk of shovelling thousands of pounds under the bed to save themselves losing a fraction of one per cent on interest rates - if that was passed on to the savings end of the market.

A safety deposit box would be a better option if you can still get one for free.

I've since looked into this a little more. If we do go into negative interest rates, some banks have said that their systems cannot implement it and it doesn't look very good either, so they are more likely to recoup the money by increasing bank charges or reintroducing charges for running our current accounts.

Those with mortgages etc would, in effect, start getting paid for their debt. These payments wouldn't be paid to them, but knocked off the mortgage/loan so that they pay back less than they borrowed.

I wonder if the Government has had a word in the ear of the Bank of England to do this in order that they will be able to get rid of some of the debt that they have racked up?

One of the first things Thatcher did in 1979 was to hike up interest rates. There were lots of complaints from individuals & industry; she retorted by saying that high interest rates are good for some people, namely retired people with savings. It must follow then that if this situation is reversed that the losers would be mainly pensioners, many who traditionally vote Tory.

That's one downside to democracy, in order to stay in power Governments sometimes do what the people want instead of what's the sensible or correct thing to do.

Pierre 16-10-2020 23:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054083)
In fairness Pierre, you'd argue against any restrictions, against all of the science, in the name of saving an economy that is beyond saving.

So you’ve written off the economy? What’s next then?

In regards to science, there is no science that shows anything other that lockdowns do nothing but delay the spread of the virus, that’s all.

Things are on the up, but still compared to 6 months ago, we’re nowhere near.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

It was predicated, and I posted it on here, that there would be no “second wave” on an equal magnitude to the first, but that there would be an initial wave followed by several Ripples.

This is where we are.

jfman 16-10-2020 23:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 36054088)
A safety deposit box would be a better option if you can still get one for free.

I've since looked into this a little more. If we do go into negative interest rates, some banks have said that their systems cannot implement it and it doesn't look very good either, so they are more likely to recoup the money by increasing bank charges or reintroducing charges for running our current accounts.

Those with mortgages etc would, in effect, start getting paid for their debt. These payments wouldn't be paid to them, but knocked off the mortgage/loan so that they pay back less than they borrowed.

I wonder if the Government has had a word in the ear of the Bank of England to do this in order that they will be able to get rid of some of the debt that they have racked up?

One of the first things Thatcher did in 1979 was to hike up interest rates. There were lots of complaints from individuals & industry; she retorted by saying that high interest rates are good for some people, namely retired people with savings. It must follow then that if this situation is reversed that the losers would be mainly pensioners, many who traditionally vote Tory.

That's one downside to democracy, in order to stay in power Governments sometimes do what the people want instead of what's the sensible or correct thing to do.

You’re overthinking the reality of this.

---------- Post added at 23:39 ---------- Previous post was at 23:32 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054092)
So you’ve written off the economy? What’s next then?

In regards to science, there is no science that shows anything other that lockdowns do nothing but delay the spread of the virus, that’s all.

Things are on the up, but still compared to 6 months ago, we’re nowhere near.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare

It was predicated, and I posted it on here, that there would be no “second wave” on an equal magnitude to the first, but that there would be an initial wave followed by several Ripples.

This is where we are.

Haha okay Pierre, let’s let the world run free as your ripples develop into tsunamis of deaths.

It’s a shame as I was briefly considering your posts credible but just a nudge or two away from what others thought.

I’m not writing off the economy - the fact it is built upon a hollow core of driving people into population centres that people do not need to be in means it will die. Capitalism 101. If you don’t have a product worth selling nobody will buy. City centre offices and the property developers that stand behind them? Ouch.

And if you had read and understood my posts to Old Boy there has never been a better time to borrow to invest in a new economy. You and Mrs. Pierre can keep your biscuit tin economics to yourselves then.

Hugh 17-10-2020 12:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054081)
God loves one



In the world of IT, a user interface is very much like a joke, if you have to explain it, it’s not very good.

Same applies here.

Having spent over 40 years in that world, we all know there are some users who just never "get it"...

You can try to make the system "idiot proof", but unfortunately there’s alway a bigger idiot.

jonbxx 17-10-2020 14:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054125)
Having spent over 40 years in that world, we all know there are some users who just never "get it"...

You can try to make the system "idiot proof", but unfortunately there’s alway a bigger idiot.

Yea, that’s why in safety critical systems, we look at ‘Human Factors’ where you design systems to make the wrong choice impossible or, at worst, difficult to the point where the user has to deliberately circumvent clear and obvious controls.

As soon as you give people a choice of options, there is always the chance of them choosing the wrong one...

Hugh 17-10-2020 14:12

Re: Coronavirus
 
Ask any SAP Administrator...

1andrew1 17-10-2020 22:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Potentially, another politician has put himself above the law - Tony Blair :td:

[ Image removed, wayyyyy to big ]

1andrew1 18-10-2020 10:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

More than one coronavirus vaccine will be available in the first quarter of 2021, a government scientific adviser has told Sky News.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, who sits on the SAGE committee, said: "I think in the first quarter of next year we will have vaccines - will have more than one vaccine."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-says-12107285

heero_yuy 18-10-2020 10:07

Re: Coronavirus
 
I think that's wishful thinking seeing as we don't have vaccines for MERS or SARS, both corona viri, after 15-20 years.

BenMcr 18-10-2020 10:13

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36054213)
I think that's wishful thinking seeing as we don't have vaccines for MERS or SARS, both corona viri, after 15-20 years.

That's mainly down to how many people are looking for one and why one was or is needed

https://theconversation.com/the-myst...e-other-137583
Quote:

What about a SARS vaccine? Vaccine studies for SARS-CoV-1 were started and tested in animal models. An inactivated whole virus was used in ferrets, nonhuman primates and mice. All of the vaccines resulted in protective immunity, but there were complications; the vaccines resulted in an immune disease in animals. No human studies were done, nor were the vaccine studies taken further because the virus disappeared. Many factors were involved in the end of SARS-CoV-1, perhaps including summer weather, and certainly strict quarantine of all those who had contact with infected individuals, but we don’t really know why the epidemic ended. Viruses are like that, unpredictable!
Mers is different and work is still going for that but has less funding and focus worldwide.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2019-12-19...s-saudi-arabia

Also the work that was done for those is helping now

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine
Quote:

Previous work to develop a vaccine against the coronavirus diseases SARS and MERS established knowledge about the structure and function of coronaviruses – which accelerated development during early 2020 of varied technology platforms for a COVID‑19 vaccine.

1andrew1 18-10-2020 10:17

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36054213)
I think that's wishful thinking seeing as we don't have vaccines for MERS or SARS, both corona viri, after 15-20 years.

Hi credentials are of the highest. Why would he put his reputation at risk by saying something he doesn't believe in? It wouldn't make sense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Farrar

papa smurf 18-10-2020 10:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36054215)
Hi credentials are of the highest. Why would he put his reputation at risk by saying something he doesn't believe in? It wouldn't make sense.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Farrar

Does he have shares in one of the vaccine companies.

1andrew1 18-10-2020 10:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36054217)
Does he have shares in one of the vaccine companies.

I'll leave that research project in your capable hands. But I suspect that journalists may have checked this out already.

pip08456 18-10-2020 11:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Leaked Canadian memo lays out future of world Covid response (allegedly).

Quote:

What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief. This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever...


...That it wont just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas. That we need to take advantage of the situations before us to promote change on a grander scale for the betterment of everyone.
https://thecanadianreport.ca/is-this...21-you-decide/

https://cairnsnews.org/2020/10/16/ca...mpression=true

1andrew1 18-10-2020 11:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36054223)
Leaked Canadian memo lays out future of world Covid response (allegedly).



https://thecanadianreport.ca/is-this...21-you-decide/

https://cairnsnews.org/2020/10/16/ca...mpression=true

Thank goodness for great sources like these reporting what the MSM elites do not allow us to read. Bravo! :D

Hugh 18-10-2020 12:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 36054223)
Leaked Canadian memo lays out future of world Covid response (allegedly).
Quote:

What we were told was that in order to offset what was essentially an economic collapse on a international scale, that the federal government was going to offer Canadians a total debt relief. This is how it works: the federal government will offer to eliminate all personal debts (mortgages, loans, credit cards, etc) which all funding will be provided to Canada by the IMF under what will become known as the World Debt Reset program. In exchange for acceptance of this total debt forgiveness the individual would forfeit ownership of any and all property and assets forever...


...That it wont just be Canada but in fact all nations will have similar roadmaps and agendas. That we need to take advantage of the situations before us to promote change on a grander scale for the betterment of everyone.


https://thecanadianreport.ca/is-this...21-you-decide/

https://cairnsnews.org/2020/10/16/ca...mpression=true

They missed out the important bit, where they are implanting explosive tracking microchips into everyone when they give them the vaccine...

downquark1 18-10-2020 13:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
There is something called the great reset but this isn't it and never going to happen.

joglynne 18-10-2020 14:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Sunday 18th October.
Quote:

Mayor Andy Burnham has this afternoon written to the Prime Minister and party leaders urging them to come to an agreement over Greater Manchester’s lockdown measures - with a fair resolution on a finance package for the region should it enter Tier 3.
He wrote:

Quote:

Dear Prime Minister and Party Leaders

Support for people and businesses affected by Tier 3 restrictions

You will be aware that Greater Manchester and the Government have so far failed to reach agreement on the introduction of new Tier 3 restrictions and crucially on the financial support to accompany any such restrictions.

We recognise the uncertainty that this is causing and write to ask for your help in breaking the impasse and finding a fair resolution. This could be done by Parliament calling an urgent debate and vote this week to establish a cross-Party consensus on what constitutes a fair financial framework for people in areas under Tier 3 restrictions.

As you will know, Greater Manchester has been under Tier 2-style restrictions for approaching three months. It is important to say that, by agreeing to work with the Government on this back in July, we have shown we will take the difficult decisions needed to protect health and control the virus. However, these restrictions have taken a toll on people and businesses. We have our doubts about whether Tier 3 will succeed in bringing down the number of cases and note similar comments from the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor. However, that aside, we are clear that the level of support being offered to areas entering Tier 3 will be insufficient both to prevent people experiencing serious hardship in the run-up to Christmas and businesses from collapsing.

And yet this is not just a Greater Manchester issue. With the challenging winter that lies ahead of the country, it is likely that most places will find themselves in Tier 3 at some point before a vaccine is found. That is why we believe it is right for Parliament to debate and agree what is a fair level of support for people and businesses in those areas. At present, local areas are agreeing individual deals with the Government. It is by no means clear that these will be sufficient to cope with the pressures they will face. Also, the lack of transparency about this process and the risks of differential treatment is potentially divisive.

Establishing clear national entitlements of the kind we had during the first lockdown will create a sense of fairness which in turn would help build public support for, and compliance with, any new restrictions. We believe that sense of fairness will only be achieved by providing similar terms to the financial package afforded to the whole country back in March. Given that it is predominantly low-wage industries that are being required to close in Tier 3, failure to provide equivalent support will appear discriminatory against people who are employed or self-employed within them or within industries that rely on them, such as the taxi trade and security.

Together with the Mayors of the Liverpool City Region and North of Tyne, we set out on Friday what we believe is the minimum level of support that should come with Tier 3 status:

A full and fair furlough scheme for all affected workers, covering 80% of an employee’s regular wage or at least the national minimum wage. We believe that this should be paid to workers in businesses forced to close but also those in the supply chain that can provide evidence of a major loss of trade caused by the closures.
A Self-Employed Income Support Scheme set at 80% of average monthly income. This should be available to those who can provide evidence of a major loss of trade arising from Tier 3 closures, including freelancers.
An improved compensation scheme for businesses directly or indirectly impacted based on the national scheme on rateable values.
If more parts of the country are to move into Tier 3 restrictions in the coming weeks, it is vital that local people and businesses know what financial support they can expect and can plan accordingly.

As Leaders of the main political parties in Westminster, I urge you to work together to help resolve this current dispute and establish a fair financial framework for local lockdowns that the whole country will be able to support.

Yours faithfully,

Andy Burnham

Mayor of Greater Manchester
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co...rnham-19123852

Taf 18-10-2020 14:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
I abandoned a shopping trip to Tesco when I saw the crowds of students milling about outside the entrance.

I went back later and security had dispersed them, but once inside I encountered large groups of them chatting and blocking the aisles.

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Julian 18-10-2020 15:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36054231)
I abandoned a shopping trip to Tesco when I saw the crowds of students milling about outside the entrance.

I went back later and security had dispersed them, but once inside I encountered large groups of them chatting and blocking the aisles.

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Bless their cotton socks.

They've been taught all about their rights but nothing about responsibilities.

Mind you if you'd asked them why they weren't observing social distancing they'd probably say it's because some guy drove up the M1 months ago. :rolleyes:

Paul 18-10-2020 15:55

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 36054213)
I think that's wishful thinking seeing as we don't have vaccines for MERS or SARS, both corona viri, after 15-20 years.

Why would we ? We dont need them.

Pierre 18-10-2020 17:23

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054228)
They missed out the important bit, where they are implanting explosive tracking microchips into everyone when they give them the vaccine...

https://www.cableforum.uk/images/local/2020/10/2.gif

1andrew1 19-10-2020 00:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
A Tory Councillor and Doctor destroys the myths of herd immunity in an article in the right-wing Spectator magazine.

Some snippets

Quote:

There is, in fact, no precedent for natural infections providing lasting herd immunity. It doesn’t happen with measles; we still get outbreaks even with a vaccine. It didn’t happen with smallpox, either, or indeed countless other infectious diseases...

Those pushing herd immunity are trying to create the impression of a genuine and serious scientific debate where there is none. Quite apart from the fact that it would cost an extra few hundred thousand lives to achieve a sufficient level of post-infection immunity, there’s an increasing body of evidence that any such immunity wanes rapidly...

Another argument that is popular is that we could simply shield our elderly and vulnerable. It’s a nice idea, but one lacking any realistic and practical way forward. As a former cancer patient who has undergone chemotherapy, I just don’t see how it could be possible.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...-any-time-soon

Paul 19-10-2020 00:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
Thats nonsense, of course there is a precedent, thats why vaccines work at all.
I'm sure the odd person may get measles twice, but its not common, and you dont see measles epidemics.
Herd immunity does not mean everyone is immune, it means the majority are, enough to stop it spreading widely.

nomadking 19-10-2020 01:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Smallpox has been eradicated by a process of vaccination. In the past, whenever a local outbreak occurred, a team rushed out to vaccinate the locals. As long as those locals remained local, and didn't go far, then the potential for spreading was limited.

The purpose of lockdowns is not connected to herd immunity. With lockdowns, the idea is that the virus runs out of available new hosts and dies out. It doesn't lie dormant for years, lying in wait. Various infectious diseases in the past have disappeared eg Spanish Flu. How did that happen?

BenMcr 19-10-2020 07:01

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul (Post 36054253)
Thats nonsense, of course there is a precedent, thats why vaccines work at all.
I'm sure the odd person may get measles twice, but its not common, and you dont see measles epidemics.
Herd immunity does not mean everyone is immune, it means the majority are, enough to stop it spreading widely.

Except you do get them. Where vaccination rates have dropped or are generally low.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKBN25L22T
Quote:

Congo says world's largest measles epidemic is over
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50625680
Quote:

How a wrong injection helped cause Samoa's measles epidemic
Wales measles epidemic: Case numbers up to 588 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22037270

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles...019.00098/full
Quote:

Measles Epidemics in Romania: Lessons for Public Health and Future Policy

Maggy 19-10-2020 08:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
I suspect that the way measles and other diseases are still with us is because of the cult of antivaccers.

Sephiroth 19-10-2020 08:47

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36054257)
I suspect that the way measles and other diseases are still with us is because of the cult of antivaccers.

How does an "antivaccer" catch measles?


jonbxx 19-10-2020 09:06

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Maggy (Post 36054257)
I suspect that the way measles and other diseases are still with us is because of the cult of antivaccers.

Agreed! For diseases like measles, the 'R' value is so high (12-18 compared with 2-6 for COVID-19) that you need very high vaccination rates. As soon as that drops, boom, the disease comes back.

The UK lost its 'measles free' status last year

Chris 19-10-2020 10:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054258)
How does an "antivaccer" catch measles?


They don’t; their children do.

MMR is 99% effective, which means one in every 100 people is relying on herd immunity to be protected against measles and the others, because the vaccine didn’t protect them directly. If a further 10 people per 100 haven’t been vaccinated, then with an R rate as high as 12-18, measles will find its way to all of those who weren’t vaccinated and also those for whom the vaccine didn’t work, fairly easily.

papa smurf 19-10-2020 12:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
Wales in LOCKDOWN: 'Stay home' order issued as shops to shut in COVID-19 circuit breaker

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...irus-latest-vn

BenMcr 19-10-2020 12:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 36054260)
They don’t; their children do.

The scary thing is that I think we're now onto the second generation for the major 'anti-vax' movement, as it's been 22 years since the discredited paper on MMR was first published.

So we now have both adults and children at risk of catching and spreading diseases for which we have safe and effective vaccines.

If the same behaviour and views hold true for any Covid-19 vaccine or vaccines then I don't know how we get out of this successfully.

Pierre 19-10-2020 13:05

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by BenMcr (Post 36054264)
The scary thing is that I think we're now onto the second generation for the major 'anti-vax' movement, as it's been 22 years since the discredited paper on MMR was first published.

So we now have both adults and children at risk of catching and spreading diseases for which we have safe and effective vaccines.

If the same behaviour and views hold true for any Covid-19 vaccine or vaccines then I don't know how we get out of this successfully.

we get out by getting on.

Not everybody needs to be vaccinated only at risk groups and the vulnerable. Only 15m are vaccinated against Flu, and for the vast, vast, vast, majority of the population the virus is no more dangerous.

jonbxx 19-10-2020 16:46

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054265)
for the vast, vast, vast, majority of the population the virus is no more dangerous.

That's interesting, where are you getting that from? The ONS figures seem to refute that statement. See section 4 here - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nd31august2020

At any age, the mortality due to COVID is higher than influenza according to those numbers. Under 65s have a 4x higher risk of dying of COVID than influenza or pneumonia. The risk of course is low so 4x not much still isn't much

Taf 19-10-2020 17:27

Re: Coronavirus
 
Tuberculosis vaccination stopped in the UK as case numbers were low. Now the numbers are rising in some areas.

nomadking 19-10-2020 17:36

Re: Coronavirus
 
COVID-19 has a tendency to decimate the lungs, in a way "regular" flu doesn't.

Link

Quote:

Dr Sahanic’s presentation is important because it is one of the first, comprehensive prospective follow-ups of these patients and shows the serious, long-term impact of COVID-19 on the lungs and heart. It is sobering to hear that more than half of the patients in this study showed damage to their lungs and hearts 12 weeks after hospital discharge, and that nearly 40% were still suffering from symptoms such as breathlessness. The good news, however, is that patients do improve and this surely will help the rehabilitation process, as discussed in the second presentation.
From June
Quote:

People infected with the coronavirus may be left with permanent lung damage. Doctors are reporting growing numbers of people who still have breathlessness and coughing months after falling ill with covid-19, and whose chest scans show evidence of irreversible lung scarring.
The numbers of people affected aren’t yet known, but estimates are as high as one in five of those who needed intensive care treatment for covid-19. Permanent damage is sometimes seen after other kinds of chest infections that can cause similar lung inflammation to the coronavirus, such as flu and pneumonia.
“We have always seen this before – what’s different is the scale of this,” says James Chalmers, a chest physician and adviser to the British Lung Foundation. Previously, his clinic in Scotland would have seen post-infection scarring of the lungs just once or twice a year, he says. “Now we are seeing dozens of patients coming through.”

In a study in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to be hit by the coronavirus, doctors are scanning the lungs of people three months after they fell ill. Although the full results aren’t yet in, Paolo Spagnolo at the University Hospital of Padua estimates that 15 to 20 per cent of those treated in intensive care at his hospital for covid-19 have scarring. “We have to be prepared in the future to manage these patients.”
These cases tend to be "high risk", ie overweight and/or smokers, rather than the vulnerable category. That is a much bigger group to be shielded.

---------- Post added at 17:36 ---------- Previous post was at 17:35 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 36054287)
Tuberculosis vaccination stopped in the UK as case numbers were low. Now the numbers are rising in some areas.

Because it's brought in from overseas from populations that were never vaccinated.

Pierre 19-10-2020 19:22

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36054281)
That's interesting, where are you getting that from? The ONS figures seem to refute that statement. See section 4 here - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...nd31august2020

At any age, the mortality due to COVID is higher than influenza according to those numbers. Under 65s have a 4x higher risk of dying of COVID than influenza or pneumonia. The risk of course is low so 4x not much still isn't much

You've answered your own question. Looking at pure statistics can give a skewed view. 4x bugger all is still bugger all.

I read that report and I couldn't really work out what it saying. This other FoI statement from the ONS for 1 month only advises that 90% of victims had underlying pre-conditions.

Anyway, the point was, going back to the original issue was that the whole population will not need to be vaccinated only the vulnerable and at risk groups, same as for flu.

---------- Post added at 19:22 ---------- Previous post was at 18:24 ----------

Unfortunately, I think what we are seeing now is Leaders (Wales) trying to out do each other. Ooh look how good a leader I am going to shut the country down, when the number of people on ventilators hasn’t changed for, over 3 weeks it has fluctuated between 26 - 34.

Also what we’re going to see is even more over-dramatising Of the situation as the politicians and science experts try Not to look foolish for over-reacting.

jonbxx 19-10-2020 19:34

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054294)
You've answered your own question. Looking at pure statistics can give a skewed view. 4x bugger all is still bugger all.

I read that report and I couldn't really work out what it saying. This other FoI statement from the ONS for 1 month only advises that 90% of victims had underlying pre-conditions.

Anyway, the point was, going back to the original issue was that the whole population will not need to be vaccinated only the vulnerable and at risk groups, same as for flu.

Ah, fair enough, if you get the Excel data linked in the report, this is the death rate of COVID vs. the 5 year average for influenza per 100,000

Under 65 3.6x
65-69 4.1x
70-74 3.8x
75-79 3.6x
80-84 3x
85+ 1.7x

I picked the 5 year average as 2020 is quite a mild influenza year. This does suggest that COVID is deadlier than flu.

'Bugger all' might be a bit of a stretch for under 65s. A death rate of 16.4 per 100,000 is 5093 deaths. That is 5093 individual tragedies.

I do agree with your point though - the most vulnerable should definitely be the first ones to get the vaccine alongside health and care workers to prevent spread the the vulnerable who have not yet had the vaccine or the vaccine didn't take.

Hopefully any vaccine will be effective. If the rates of acquired immunity are low, more people will need to vaccinated eventually to get a herd protection

nomadking 19-10-2020 19:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Any figures will be "skewed" by the lockdown and other precautions being taken. That will obviously have reduced any illness and mortality figures, compared to people carrying on as normal.
You just have to look at the number of instances from around the World, where gatherings have resulted in deaths, that in normal times would've just made them sick with regular flu.
If it was the same as regular flu, then it would've gone unnoticed and hospitals wouldn't be filling up fast.:rolleyes:

jfman 19-10-2020 19:49

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36054305)
Any figures will be "skewed" by the lockdown and other precautions being taken. That will obviously have reduced any illness and mortality figures, compared to people carrying on as normal.
You just have to look at the number of instances from around the World, where gatherings have resulted in deaths, that in normal times would've just made them sick with regular flu.
If it was the same as regular flu, then it would've gone unnoticed and hospitals wouldn't be filling up fast.:rolleyes:

A round of applause from me for this one.

papa smurf 19-10-2020 20:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx (Post 36054304)
Ah, fair enough, if you get the Excel data linked in the report, this is the death rate of COVID vs. the 5 year average for influenza per 100,000

Under 65 3.6x
65-69 4.1x
70-74 3.8x
75-79 3.6x
80-84 3x
85+ 1.7x

I picked the 5 year average as 2020 is quite a mild influenza year. This does suggest that COVID is deadlier than flu.

'Bugger all' might be a bit of a stretch for under 65s. A death rate of 16.4 per 100,000 is 5093 deaths. That is 5093 individual tragedies.

I do agree with your point though - the most vulnerable should definitely be the first ones to get the vaccine alongside health and care workers to prevent spread the the vulnerable who have not yet had the vaccine or the vaccine didn't take.

Hopefully any vaccine will be effective. If the rates of acquired immunity are low, more people will need to vaccinated eventually to get a herd protection

Once you've had it we'll know won't we.

1andrew1 19-10-2020 20:30

Re: Coronavirus
 
One for the next PMQs.
Quote:

Matt Hancock seen in chauffeur-driven car without mask

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has been seen travelling in his chauffeur-driven car without wearing a mask, against the advice of No 10.

The public face fines of £200 if they fail to wear a covering in taxis or private hire cars.

There is an exemption for chauffeur-driven cars, but Downing Street said it had advised all its ministers to wear coverings.

A No 10 spokesman said there were masks available in all ministerial cars.

The picture was first published on the Daily Mirror website.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54605222

papa smurf 19-10-2020 20:33

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36054318)

Advice isn't law


There is an exemption for chauffeur-driven cars, but Downing Street said it had advised all its ministers to wear coverings.

Pierre 19-10-2020 20:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

If it was the same as regular flu, then it would've gone unnoticed and hospitals wouldn't be filling up fast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054307)
A round of applause from me for this one.

So flu goes unnoticed.................ohhh okay!

You Mean like this? 2008

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...s-Britain.html

Or as predicted in 2018?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...eason-history/

Or like it did in 2016?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...test-8pnmdpdfx

Or as advised in 2014?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...d-flu-pandemic


Yep, hardly noticeable.

Sephiroth 19-10-2020 20:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
Andrew must spend an awful lot of time looking for stuff with which to smear the government.

papa smurf 19-10-2020 20:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054322)
Andrew must spend an awful lot of time looking for stuff with which to smear the government.

Ooh what a thing to say,do you have a few hundred examples ;)

nomadking 19-10-2020 20:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054321)
So flu goes unnoticed.................ohhh okay!

You Mean like this? 2008

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...s-Britain.html

Or as predicted in 2018?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...eason-history/

Or like it did in 2016?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...test-8pnmdpdfx

Or as advised in 2014?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...d-flu-pandemic


Yep, hardly noticeable.

From your first link.
Quote:

They are particularly worried because France has already declared a flu epidemic and the virus has claimed 31 lives since November.
From a few weeks ago.

Quote:

The number of deaths in France attributed to Covid-19 is now 31,511, an increase of 52 in the previous 24 hours, according to official figures.
Thousandfold number of deaths. Now that's noticeable.

papa smurf 19-10-2020 20:56

Re: Coronavirus
 
Another lawbreaker ?

Gary Lineker hypocrisy: BBC star flouts COVID rules as he shops in M&S without face mask

The outspoken former footballer was pictured wandering around Marks & Spencer in Barnes, south-west London, on Sunday without a mask - after months of lecturing others to do just that.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/13...-face-covering

1andrew1 19-10-2020 21:04

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 36054320)
Advice isn't law


There is an exemption for chauffeur-driven cars, but Downing Street said it had advised all its ministers to wear coverings.

No one's claiming it's unlawful - my quote confirms this. Sub-optimal at the least.

Hugh 19-10-2020 21:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054322)
Andrew must spend an awful lot of time looking for stuff with which to smear the government.

Oh, look - here’s the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Express smearing the Government...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-covered.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...s-latest-no-10

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...er-government/

Bunch of lefties...

Pierre 19-10-2020 21:11

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36054325)
From your first link.
From a few weeks ago.

Thousandfold number of deaths. Now that's noticeable.

I wasn’t aware we lived in France.

You stated/implied that the flu goes by “unnoticed” in the UK. I simply proved that wasn’t the case. No more, no less - you may move on.

jfman 19-10-2020 21:18

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054321)
So flu goes unnoticed.................ohhh okay!

You Mean like this? 2008

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...s-Britain.html

Or as predicted in 2018?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...eason-history/

Or like it did in 2016?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...test-8pnmdpdfx

Or as advised in 2014?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...d-flu-pandemic


Yep, hardly noticeable.

That’s neither what Nomadking or I said.

Pierre 19-10-2020 21:40

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054338)
That’s neither what Nomadking or I said.

Sorry, I may have mis-understood

Nomad said, which you subsequently cheerleaded

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36054305)
If it was the same as regular flu, then it would've gone unnoticed and hospitals wouldn't be filling up fast.:rolleyes:

Which certainly says to me that regular flu, does go unnoticed and doesn’t fill up hospitals. You explain to me How that statement doesn’t say that...........

jfman 19-10-2020 22:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054344)
Sorry, I may have mis-understood

Nomad said, which you subsequently cheerleaded

Which certainly says to me that regular flu, does go unnoticed and doesn’t fill up hospitals. You explain to me How that statement doesn’t say that...........

He said if it was the same as regular flu it’d have gone unnoticed. Which, to any reasonable person, is to say that there would have been similar numbers to and impacts on healthcare provision as seasonal flu.

Everyone knows seasonal flu happens and it has some impact on healthcare provision. Indeed, capacity is to a greater or lesser extent built around winter flu season. If it was just a seasonal flu it’d have had a routine impact. “Unnoticed” I took to clearly mean for the average observer considering the ordinary impacts of these things on their day to day lives. I’m not sure the people in Wuhan “didn’t notice” the impact or Coronavirus. Or those in Northern Italy.

I’m not sure digging up scaremongering stories from tabloids overstating season flu is equivalent to Coronavirus. Indeed, the Daily Mail assures me each year that it will be the coldest winter on record, with the warmest heatwaves ever, the odd hurricane and 8 feet of snowfall each year. I’d not use them as a barometer.

---------- Post added at 22:16 ---------- Previous post was at 22:12 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054333)
I wasn’t aware we lived in France.

You stated/implied that the flu goes by “unnoticed” in the UK. I simply proved that wasn’t the case. No more, no less - you may move on.

Ah, British exceptionalism is back! I’ve missed this theme in the coronavirus thread... we’re different because...

It turns out we don’t have a better healthcare system than China. Multi-generational households.

The floor is yours Pierre.

1andrew1 19-10-2020 22:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054322)
Andrew must spend an awful lot of time looking for stuff with which to smear the government.

I've no problem in tackling apparent contradictions as I did by posting the Tony Blair story on Sunday, the Nick Hancock story today and by condemning Margaret Ferrier.

You subscribe to the view that if they're Conservative they're exempt from such criticism. Sorry, I will continue to call such politicians out, regardless of their political party.

jfman 19-10-2020 22:18

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054322)
Andrew must spend an awful lot of time looking for stuff with which to smear the government.

In Andrew’s defence I’m not sure it takes that long with this Government. They seem to have a conveyor belt of useful stories coming out on a regular basis.

Pierre 19-10-2020 22:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054354)
I’m not sure digging up scaremongering stories from tabloids overstating season flu is equivalent to Coronavirus.

There is much irony in that sentence, if only you could see it.

Quote:

Ah, British exceptionalism is back! I’ve missed this theme in the coronavirus thread... we’re different because....
You’ve gone off on one again and totally missed it. Don’t drink on a Monday night.

That was said because we were talking about the U.K. and the NHS, and he referenced France. Which was irrelevant to the discussion......nothing more.

jfman 19-10-2020 22:29

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054360)
There is much irony in that sentence, if only you could see it.

You’ve gone off on one again and totally missed it. Don’t drink on a Monday night.

That was said because we were talking about the U.K. and the NHS, and he referenced France. Which was irrelevant to the discussion......nothing more.

To believe what we are seeing elsewhere won’t happen here is naive in the extreme unless we are doing something fundamentally different.

That means our test, trace, isolate has to be better, our healthcare system has to have more capacity and better treatments or we have greater restrictions that are being strictly adhered to.

I’m not seeing any evidence of these things. Cases steadily rising, hospital cases steadily rising, deaths steadily rising. The trajectory is inevitable.

Sephiroth 19-10-2020 22:41

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054332)
Oh, look - here’s the Telegraph, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Express smearing the Government...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...e-covered.html

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...s-latest-no-10

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...er-government/

Bunch of lefties...

You're just as bad.

1andrew1 19-10-2020 23:09

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054366)
You're just as bad.

Bit of a wild thought, I know. But amuse me. Have you thought that with the press of all hues (;)) reporting the issue, it may just possibly be you who is being less than objective?

Pierre 19-10-2020 23:15

Re: Coronavirus
 
Lots to unpack here!

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054362)
Cases steadily rising

They’re not “Steadily rising”,....they’re going through the roof from around 450 per day in July to around 16,000 per day now. A huge increase, totally eclipsing the initial round.

Quote:

hospital cases steadily rising
This is were it gets more interesting...are we talking hospital admissions? Because this were somebody has gone to hospital for any reason, but tested positive, tests positive whilst in hospital for other reasons etc.

Even so, I agree there is an increase, but it in no way correlates to the infection metric.
Not even close to April. The curve is a magnitude flatter.

Quote:

deaths steadily rising. The trajectory is inevitable.
Not really, they have risen, and gone back down again, again the death curve is even flatter and the correlation between the infection rate and the death rates, in any other setting you would struggle to assign a high level of risk to it.

It currently has a mortality rate of 0.5%, which is obviously higher than the true figure as the majority of people either don’t get tested or don’t even know they have/had it.

But at 0.5% it’s as deadly as none of the attached.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...and-month.html

Mad Max 19-10-2020 23:21

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054362)
To believe what we are seeing elsewhere won’t happen here is naive in the extreme unless we are doing something fundamentally different.

That means our test, trace, isolate has to be better, our healthcare system has to have more capacity and better treatments or we have greater restrictions that are being strictly adhered to.

I’m not seeing any evidence of these things. Cases steadily rising, hospital cases steadily rising, deaths steadily rising. The trajectory is inevitable.


Will that be the hundreds of thousands of deaths that you predicted?

Sephiroth 19-10-2020 23:45

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36054357)
I've no problem in tackling apparent contradictions as I did by posting the Tony Blair story on Sunday, the Nick Hancock story today and by condemning Margaret Ferrier.

You subscribe to the view that if they're Conservative they're exempt from such criticism. Sorry, I will continue to call such politicians out, regardless of their political party.

No I don’t. Prove it. I am no Boris fan and have said so many times.

jfman 19-10-2020 23:50

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36054369)
Will that be the hundreds of thousands of deaths that you predicted?

I think you will find that is my prediction without any mitigation at all. I’m sure you’ll agree - there’s very much a lot mitigation going on. And more to come. :)

Mad Max 19-10-2020 23:51

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054373)
I think you will find that is my prediction without any mitigation at all. I’m sure you’ll agree - there’s very much a lot mitigation going on. And more to come. :)

Well, here's hoping, jfman. :)

1andrew1 19-10-2020 23:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054372)
No I don’t. Prove it. I am no Boris fan and have said so many times.

#363 suggested otherwise.
But I'm happy to take you at your word.

jfman 20-10-2020 00:00

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054368)
Lots to unpack here!

They’re not “Steadily rising”,....they’re going through the roof from around 450 per day in July to around 16,000 per day now. A huge increase, totally eclipsing the initial round.

Apples and oranges of course, as we weren’t testing in the initial round.

Quote:

This is were it gets more interesting...are we talking hospital admissions? Because this were somebody has gone to hospital for any reason, but tested positive, tests positive whilst in hospital for other reasons etc.
Probably all of them - I fail to see the relevance. The NHS has finite capacity and resource.

Quote:

Even so, I agree there is an increase, but it in no way correlates to the infection metric.
Not even close to April. The curve is a magnitude flatter.

Not really, they have risen, and gone back down again, again the death curve is even flatter and the correlation between the infection rate and the death rates, in any other setting you would struggle to assign a high level of risk to it.

It currently has a mortality rate of 0.5%, which is obviously higher than the true figure as the majority of people either don’t get tested or don’t even know they have/had it.

But at 0.5% it’s as deadly as none of the attached.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...and-month.html
I’m not sure what your point is. 0.5% of reaching herd immunity is an acceptable death toll but 1% isn’t?

Those conditions also aren’t all contagious :D

---------- Post added 20-10-2020 at 00:00 ---------- Previous post was 19-10-2020 at 23:54 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Max (Post 36054374)
Well, here's hoping, jfman. :)

We are of course also getting better at treatments which is a factor in improving the death rate significantly. Another important outcome of the delay towards a vaccine strategy.

Although in part that depends on staying inside the resource capacity of the NHS.

Hugh 20-10-2020 10:10

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth (Post 36054366)
You're just as bad.

I’m just as bad as the Torygraph, Daily Fail, and the Daily Excess?

OK, then... :)

heero_yuy 20-10-2020 10:16

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Quote from The Sun: The Government’s chief scientific adviser has warned a Covid vaccine may never eradicate the virus completely.

Sir Patrick Vallance said that only one disease - smallpox - had ever been completely eradicated by a vaccine as he moved to try and manage expectations over the nationwide roll-out of a Covid jab.

Giving evidence to the joint Commons and Lords National Security Strategy Committee, he said a vaccine may be ready for widespread community use by the spring and that doses may be available to some people before that.

But Sir Vallance said he thought it was "unlikely" that a jab would be widely available before then.

He said in the future, treating Covid-19 may become more like seasonal flu.

Sir Patrick told the committee: "I think it is unlikely that we will end up with a truly sterilising vaccine that completely stops infection.

"It is likely that this disease will circulate and be endemic.
We're just going to have to live with it like seasonal flu and stop the damaging lockdowns that are and will kill more as collateral damage (Untreated cancer, heart disease, mental health etc) in the coming years than are dying from COVID 19.

Hugh 20-10-2020 10:20

Re: Coronavirus
 
But it’s not like seasonal flu - it kills more, and it could have longer lasting ongoing health issues.

Sephiroth 20-10-2020 10:31

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 36054375)
#363 suggested otherwise.
But I'm happy to take you at your word.

Thank you.


---------- Post added at 10:31 ---------- Previous post was at 10:30 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054395)
I’m just as bad as the Torygraph, Daily Fail, and the Daily Excess?

OK, then... :)

The Torygraph is a highly respectable paper, noted, of course, for its investigative journalism and exposing the expenses scandal in particular.

Carth 20-10-2020 10:42

Re: Coronavirus
 
I remember the health experts shouting and crying that smoking & drinking was a naughty thing to be doing - and a bad influence on children who saw their parents indulge.

Now they've successfully banned smoking virtually everywhere, and killed off the pub trade, I wonder what they think of the new scenario where everyone that does smoke & drink are doing so at home in front of their kids?

*fills glass, lights ciggy, goes back to staring out of the window*

:tiptoe:

Damien 20-10-2020 11:26

Re: Coronavirus
 
If parents are smoking in the house with their children then health experts probably aren't happy but there isn't much they do can about it. Short of banning it all together then the reasonability lies with the parents surely?

jfman 20-10-2020 11:52

Re: Coronavirus
 
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/our...ker-lockdowns/

Economists for circuit breakers.

papa smurf 20-10-2020 11:59

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054421)

opinions are like bum holes


everyone has one;)

Pierre 20-10-2020 12:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh (Post 36054398)
But it’s not like seasonal flu - it kills more

but will it? when we have a vaccine and the vulnerable are vaccinated?

Because it's a novel virus there is by definition no immunity (ignoring the T-Cell theory for a moment)

How many might seasonal flu kill if there was no immunity and 15-20M weren't vaccinated annually?

---------- Post added at 12:25 ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 36054417)
If parents are smoking in the house with their children then health experts probably aren't happy but there isn't much they do can about it. Short of banning it all together then the reasonability lies with the parents surely?

Oh there's lot's they can do! they could legislate that smoking in a confined space with children is illegal and abusive to children. Like they have done with cars!

Then the police will come a knocking when someone makes a complaint against you.

jfman 20-10-2020 12:25

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054429)
but will it? when we have a vaccine and the vulnerable are vaccinated?

Because it's a novel virus there is by definition no immunity (ignoring the T-Cell theory for a moment)

How many might seasonal flu kill if there was no immunity and 15-20M weren't vaccinated annually?

A straw man comparison if ever I saw one.

Pierre 20-10-2020 12:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054421)

Left wing economists from the university of Viv Nicholson.

Quote:

as in times of war, there is no effective economic limit on crisis spending
Let's shut it down, then start it up, then shut it down, then......repeat ad-infinitum

Damien 20-10-2020 12:37

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054429)
but will it? when we have a vaccine and the vulnerable are vaccinated?

Because it's a novel virus there is by definition no immunity (ignoring the T-Cell theory for a moment)

We don't know I don't think.

I know what you're saying, that this is a new virus entirely and even/when it evolves it'll become like the flu in that our experiences of dealing with the previous version of the virus will allow our immune systems to adapt to it's evolved strains quicker.

But I don't think they know that for sure yet nor the long term ramifications of the virus. The reports of 'long COVID' and people having evidence of damage from it even if they were asymptomatic are not fully understood yet.

Either way it's going to be around forever it seems but the question is if it's better for all of us that first exposure is done via a vaccine rather than contracting the virus proper.

Even if we do give up and try a controlled spread as opposed to halting the virus then that'll likely involve trying to keep it very low over the winter months and opening up in spring again to avoid the flu season.

There are still so many unknowns I don't think you can fault the government for taking the cautious approach.

nomadking 20-10-2020 12:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054438)
Left wing economists from the university of Viv Nicholson.



Let's shut it down, then start it up, then shut it down, then......repeat ad-infinitum

"No limit" shouldn't mean a free for all. You still have to be selective about what you spend money on.

Pierre 20-10-2020 12:39

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman (Post 36054433)
A straw man comparison if ever I saw one.

no it isn't, it's perfectly sensible coherent argument.

Comparing the death rates of two viruses. One that we have a vaccine for and one that we don't - now that's nonsensical.

jfman 20-10-2020 13:02

Re: Coronavirus
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054438)
Left wing economists from the university of Viv Nicholson.

Let's shut it down, then start it up, then shut it down, then......repeat ad-infinitum

There's no outcome that doesn't cause economic harm. You either choose to mitigate it or do not under the guise of it being too expensive. Yet there's no plan to pay the current £2trn of debt anyway!

---------- Post added at 13:00 ---------- Previous post was at 12:58 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre (Post 36054443)
no it isn't, it's perfectly sensible coherent argument.

Comparing the death rates of two viruses. One that we have a vaccine for and one that we don't - now that's nonsensical.

Hmmm. I suppose it's an interesting thought experiment. However I fail to see how useful such a comparison is. In the real world we do have a flu vaccine.

Nobody would ever countenance not distributing a flu vaccine. It's generally accepted in the civilised world we try to improve treatment outcomes.

---------- Post added at 13:02 ---------- Previous post was at 13:00 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking (Post 36054442)
"No limit" shouldn't mean a free for all. You still have to be selective about what you spend money on.

Quality infrastructure projects. You either pay for that our pay out on dole money anyway and have nothing to show for it. The private sector isn't coming to the rescue any time soon.

Pierre 20-10-2020 14:35

Re: Coronavirus
 
thank the lord the pandemic is over.

I mean it's no longer a public health issue, just a financial settlement issue.


All times are GMT +1. The time now is 04:07.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
All Posts and Content are © Cable Forum