Re: Brexit (New).
 

It was also not within their power. Some self delusion they evidenced there.

---------- Post added at 19:53 ---------- Previous post was at 19:51 ----------

Not according to Macron.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It’s a ruse. Removing the conditions removes no deal by accident. Parliament will uncontrversially approve the extension by statutory instrument first and vote on May’s deal after doing so. That gives weeks to pursue other avenues before the new proposed exit day if May’s deal fails.

---------- Post added at 19:56 ---------- Previous post was at 19:53 ----------

He’s pushing for early with an option to extend further according to the Guardian. He’s also chose a bank holiday in France so they get to avoid shocks to the markets. What a guy.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

One EU diplomat has conceded the unity of the EU27 has started to disintegrate for the first time in the Brexit negotiations.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

At least it’s over something minor. We will be back for further extensions anyway so I wouldn’t stress too much.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The EU won't want to be continuously granting us extensions though and will doubtless insist on something lengthy for a second extension.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Possibly, but they might view uncertainty as something likely to force HoC to move on May and genuinely break the deadlock. The worst case scenario is literally no deal, after March 29th. They've demonstrated they are prepared enough to be comfortable with that and we haven't.

Keeping us in until 2021 helps them with the EU budget. Not that it's life or death, but it's free money.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Any extention later than 22nd May would require the UK to hold EU elections.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We know. A minor detail in our (the UK) desperation.

One step at a time. The first big hurdle in the minds of the public is 29th March. Once that's out the way, and everyone get's used to the fact we are still in the EU, if May's deal goes down there'll be a further (longer) extension and EU elections. As this thread demonstrates, and I'm sure it's the case with the public at large, many feel strongly about the 29th March date, it's a symbol of how Brexiteers still control our destiny.

We wouldn't want to upset everyone too much at one go. It's not easy undermining a democratic process. Polling between 1st and 11th April will be frantic.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

On the contrary.

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1553201362

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/atta...1&d=1553201362

Re: Brexit (New).
 

At least you now admit it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

All part of Project Fear ! ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

When I see Theresa May saying she's not worried about no-deal, I put it in the same category as her saying there won't be an election and we're definitely leaving on the 29th March. :D

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Chris Grayling? Andrea Leadsom? Without a name it's simply trying to influence opinion in Parliament as opposed to an accurate representation of reality.

Although I accept everyone is at it.

---------- Post added at 21:06 ---------- Previous post was at 20:57 ----------

Well it isn't.

It has to be presented as the last resort. Which necessitates baby steps involving one or more extensions. If they admitted today that the intention was to run EU elections there'd, rightly, be fury around it because of the time between now and then.

There are important milestones. Passing March 29th in the EU being the first. The EU elections being another. The results of the European election will be hard to ignore if, for example, UKIP have a resounding win. You'll no doubt have the FBPE brigade trying to treat a Lib Dem vote as a remain vote. It would be the biggest test of public opinion since 2017. Emerge from that unscathed and there's arguably a "legitimate" platform to explore other options. There's no point in our politicians trying to run before they can walk, or to give the game away. One step at a time.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Over on Facebook there are call to block major motorways in the UK should we still be in the EU on the 29th.

The M25 is among them.

I use the M11, but luckily I'm off shift that day.

So the way things are going I expect major traffic issues.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I'm sure Operation Stack will do it anyway if we left.

Hopefully they get more of a turnout than Farage and the Leave Means Leave march. I do enjoy some civil disobedience.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I said previously - the Leave means Leave march was not a rally, it was a march and they were limited to 200 and all 200 turned up. :rolleyes:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So looks like the EU are more flexible than we though:

1) Approve the deal - EU will give us to May 2nd
2) No deal - April 12th
3) Retaining the option for long extension until whenever so long as we participate in EU elections

I think this means May's deal is dead no matter what.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

75 apparently with 50 regulars. But it's a massive march, 14 miles every day over two weeks is far more than a single stroll round London. Respect to the 50 for their endurance.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Stacking the decks against no deal somewhat. Very clever.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

To be honest, her deal has been dead twice. When she made her speech last night, it was both dead and buried.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Someone else might want to check all that, I've been out and am less than sober

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Looks good to me. Enjoy!

Hang on approve the deal and get May 22nd I think. Typo.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Lots to celebrate.
29th March Brexit. Dead.
No deal. Dead.
Chances of a more commonsense Brexit. High
;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No more time for Johnson to demand she goes back to Brussels to demand a better deal. 30th June would be three wasted months without cutting through the chaff.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Theresa May and the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, are about to meet, with the bloc having decided upon its response to her request for a delay.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Update on Damien’s earlier post, reporters are saying that it looks like the following:
If MV3 passes next week, UK has until May 22 to pass necessary legislation.
If MV3 falls, new deadline of April 12 when UK has to decide to contest EP elections (= longer extension) or to have hard exit.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

= possibility of a further extension of several months.



---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------

Breaking.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Hot take from Lord Ashcroft:

It may be the Prime Minister was right in not ruling out a no deal as any sane person would agree this needed to be on the table as a negotiating tool as this appears to be flummoxing the EU tonight as they certainly don’t want a no deal...

EU ready for no deal on April 12.
UK not ready for no deal full stop. :confused:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Wrong.

---------- Post added at 22:51 ---------- Previous post was at 22:46 ----------

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That’s some selective quoting. I could select his line about revoking A50, but few see that as credible at this stage.

I hope everyone votes in the European elections. People died for the vote so it’s important to exercise your democratic right.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I guess the increasing likelihood of missing the 29th March deadline affects everyone differently.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Chris did correctly point out people are essentially so entrenched they see what they want to see. So much is being said, and assumed certain events will happen, that the full range of options are in sight to someone.

Us included.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We exercised that right just over 2 years ago, since then activists have been trying to overturn it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Everyone included for sure, totally agree. But I've dialled into a few web conferences with informed people who over the last 12 months still seem convinced that the final deal will keep us closely aligned to the EU. Insights like that have kept investment coming into companies like Vauxhall and Toyota.

However, as regards the Withdrawal Agreement, I've given up predicting what's going to happen. As you said, about 27 different extensions cited on Twitter earlier but whilst the options have now been officially confirmed, who's to say they won't change?

I'm enjoying the historical drama especially as anything apart from leaving on 29th March with no-deal is an upgrade to my original expectations. Heck, I'm even going to a Brexiter friend's party on the 29th March! I won't gloat too much :)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We can safely say Theresa May won’t revoke A50 because she hasn’t ruled it out.

She said “should not” as opposed to “must not” or “will not”. If she said “must not” or “will not” I’d have ruled it in.

---------- Post added at 23:23 ---------- Previous post was at 23:18 ----------

That just just an advisory plebiscite.

Electing Parliamentarians has meaningful output. Even representatives at other levels, local councils and devolved assemblies. Real, proper democracy.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Petition to revoke Article 50 has now sailed past the 2m mark.

Philip Stevens in the FT suggests that MPs should revoke Article 50 and start again to build a national consensus.
May not be easy but has to be better than the current Fawlty Towers approach.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

name "United Kingdom"
code "GB"
signature_count 1261367

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Nick Robinson https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47660019 She doesn’t seemed to have ruled this out, as she states it as an option...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So EU earlier yesterday, sick of can being kicked down road, as are the other 27 EU Member States, they all agree tonight to kick can further down road.

You couldn't make this shit up from the corrupted and cancerous EU fools.

Wow, so 800,000 signatories are not from UK. Fake Petition then. :)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

They are shitting it from A/No-Deal and B/17.4 Million disgruntled voters voting in the EU Elections.May's deal is a crock of shit so it's still looking like No-Deal as i said it would be at the start of the previous thread :)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The EU position to attempt to facilitate an extension that suits it was entirely predictable. Time for everyone to wake up to reality. There’s no unicorn.

If we leave we will do so in a manner that suits the EU. A shame we wasted two years really. Could have not participated in negotiations at all and been better off. At least then we’d be credible!

Re: Brexit (New).
 

French President Macron: "The British politicians are incapable to put in place what their people have demanded. Their people voted for Brexit".

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No, there’s something wrong with the counter, as that hasn’t changed in 12 hours - it’s still the same number now

---------- Post added at 07:41 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ----------

You also said we would be leaving on the 29th March, so your forecasting level of accuracy is zero at the moment.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Exactly. If people had been open to understanding that "they need us more than we need them" might just be wishful thinking and that 27 countries are stronger than one country, last night's news would not have come as a surprise.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

English nationalism is going to have to take it’s medicine.

What price to pay? A United Ireland, economic catastrophe or Brexit in name only? The clocks are ticking. We need them more than they need us, and we’ve told them!

21 days, 14 hours and 51 minutes or
61 days, 14 hours and 51 minutes.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Clocks can, and do get reset as djfunkdup knows ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That’s why I hedged by bets :D

The first one is at least a countdown to a decision from England.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

It will be in name only. Just feel sorry for all those who believed thr spin.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The EU are fools for giving the UK government what it asked for at least to some extent?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The dates are ones which work for the EU. Both main scenarios either involve us leaving before complicating the EU elections or being in the EU elections. I think it kills May's deal though because she can't say 'this, or we crash out tomorrow'.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Re: Brexit (New).
 

agree her deal now dead and parliament will take control next week

Re: Brexit (New).
 

As a staunch remainer, how do you think Parliament will be able to stop a no deal exit?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

they will agree a softer Brexit IMO a no deal is worse of all worlds

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Do you think that can be negotiated and passed by April 12th? I don't


Here in lies the rub, any sort of soft Brexit would probably entail us remaining in the customs union and have us retaining freedom of movement. (basically in the EU in all but name, but without the rights of a member state, whats the point ?)

There would be many millions of unhappy leave voters who would probably never vote Tory again for their belief that May failed to implement their vision of Brexit.

going no deal would see the tory's out of power for at LEAST two terms, possibly more.

May now gets to chose whether she puts party or country first , she won't be allowed to put country first....


So, as Parliament have failed to implement Brexit and are paralyzed. it's time to shit or get off the pot, No Deal vs Remain. winner takes all.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

No it is not.

Also - How many times do I have to say this?

Their votes on amendments are not legally binding!!!

Only Theresa May can revoke Article 50, she cannot be forced to do so by any amendment vote in parliament. The Government is the Executive and it can only put forth Primary Legislation. Any private members Bill that attempts to change Statutes, the Government still has one last Nuclear option, as it is the Executive, it can advise the Queen to veto any Bill and it will not receive Royal Assent, no assent, means it won't pass in to law.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

the government have commit themselves to hold indicative votes in April so all options can get voted on

the ERG could come to regret not backing her deal as vast majority of parliament wont vote for a no deal and her deal was best could get with the red line of no CU or SM

best chance now for the ones that want a no deal now is a second referendum and no not calling for one bit ironic really it now best chance they got for a no deal

Re: Brexit (New).
 

What’s the odds of any such Government surviving a vote of no confidence?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Not much...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

one slight problem... no deal is the default legal position, not something to be voted on....

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Very high - Tories/DUP won't surrender and let Corbyn in No. 10, you're worried about a No deal, just think what it would like with his hard-left gang in there.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The EU have been quite crafty with their offer yesterday. It makes no deal by accident or otherwise less likely. We only have to tell them what we're doing next by 12th April if TMs deal fails, the cliff edge could be moved if needs be and legalities quickly changed.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

never said it wasn't legal default we see what happens next week but we wont be leaving next week since she got new dates

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Looking at their spending plans it would mean about 40 years of hard austerity to resolve the financial mess they would leave behind again.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

True, depends how on stubborn May want's to be, if reports are true that she's become less risk averse to no deal then I'm deeply concerned

Re: Brexit (New).
 

'Reports' designed to try and influence Remainers in next week's vote. However it's just going to encourage the DUP/ERG to vote no. She can't win, rock and a hard place so to speak....

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Brexit petition SHAME: Half of signatures in Revoke Article 50 petition are OUTSIDE UK


MORE than half of the 2.7 million names on a record-breaking petition to derail Brexit by revoking Article 50 signed the petition from outside the UK, data on the Government’s Parliamentary website has revealed.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...it-news-latest

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Expats have a vote...
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...ooms-1-4871596

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Why not simply vote against the proposals for MPs to take control?

There’s no way they will both vote to take control then sit idly by and allow Government to sabotage it.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Government will table statutory instrument to change to exit date on Monday/Tuesday ahead of May's deal vote.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

So do Chinese and Russian hackers in this instance.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

but Russian money funding leave campaign ok I guess ?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I wonder which date they will pick?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Presumably April 12th with May's Deal including the later date if it passes.

---------- Post added at 12:31 ---------- Previous post was at 12:29 ----------

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/st...60955202338816

Might explain why the EU give us so many options. They want to ensure we, not they, take responsibility for No Deal. May would rather the EU take the blame.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

FT saying that Conservative MPs will expect Theresa May to step down if her deal is not passed.
https://www.ft.com/content/98ec4fc6-...9-6917dce3dc62

Re: Brexit (New).
 

That is utterly typical of May all along as she puts the blame on everybody else whilst absolving herself of any responsibility.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Who is the replacement expected to be ?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Who do you want it to be?.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think she’s starting to wonder whether it’s the only way out of the Groundhog Day scenario she’s created, and it would certainly explain why the EU rowed back from its first draft agreement which stated 22 May as a conditional deadline and offered no unconditional deadline at all. In that scenario there was a clear incentive for the DUP and the ERG to keep holding out.

In the present scenario, there is still some incentive for her to try to win round enough of the MPs who are wavering in the middle, though that’s still a tall order. From the EU’s point of view they can simply say that with the small unconditional delay they did nothing to heighten the risk of No Deal.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Not sure it's a good time to change ,plus who would accept the poison chalice at this stage of the game.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Of course, the queen could decide she's had enough and give TM the finger at the same time as giving a private members bill Royal Assent. Apparently it last happened in 1708 so it's as good (modern!!) a precedent as the speaker stopping MV3.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

they had there chance to remove her and lost

Plan for MPs to get votes on seven Brexit options if Theresa May's deal defeated again

https://news.sky.com/story/plan-for-...again-11672593

Re: Brexit (New).
 

2nd referendum and revoke on the table!

Re: Brexit (New).
 

We seem to be back to last week/earlier this week (who can keep track) where a long extension is still on the table and if the ERG will bank what they have or a confident enough that No Deal will emerge from Parliamentary chaos in the days to come.

As for May I am not entirely sure she has much of a plan or logic left. It seems like she is surviving day to day and is almost stuck in a loop with this deal because it's all she has and all she can personally entertain. Even pulling the vote and preparing for No Deal she can't do hence the suggestion she might want the EU to do it for her.It's also possible she still thinks all the domestic things she wanted to do she'll still be able to do and it's not sinking in that her Premiership is likely over soon. Just at a human level the last two years have been brutal for her.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Very surprised TM is even considering giving the indicative votes because she knows she's not going to like (some of) the results.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

To (mis)quote your own point from last night ...

Whose table?
Amber Rudd? David Gauke?

Re: Brexit (New).
 

The dining table next to the bowl of sour grapes ;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I don't think there is a majority in Parliament for these. A Customs Union and/or Norway are the only things I see passing but even then that'll be without much of the Governing party so how that can actually happen in practise is unknown.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I don't think it could be anything more than advisory.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Well played. Yes, it depends if that holds up and isnt just a threat.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Oily snake Gove is waiting, he'll pounce at the right time, when the.battle is over and the bodies removed...

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Quite but in the end if that's the only thing that Parliament is then shown to support then the question will be asked of what to do now. Ultimately I think Labour would support it if it were added to the political declaration which would be relatively simple to do and would then involve passing May's deal.

It's obtainable IMO. But I also wonder how much that political declaration is worth anything tbh.

---------- Post added at 14:11 ---------- Previous post was at 14:08 ----------

Gove is one of the very few politicians that I have a better opinion of after this process than I did going in. He advocated for Brexit but since then he has stuck around and tried to make it work. He took some responsibility see though this project whilst Johnson and Raab have gone off to claim moral higher-ground and work on their leadership bids, refusing to get their hands dirty. Not to mention that he has shown competence in each Ministry he has been given after Education which is a rare quality in the Government recently.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I live in David Gauke's constituency. The local Facebook feeds would combust if he got any softer on Brexit!!

I see David Lidington is reaching out to other parties at the moment at the moment. If Theresa May goes, he is very likely to be at least the temporary Prime Minister until a party election is held which could be, erm, interesting...

My personal opinion is that the Conservative Party needs to edge out Theresa May and get her to resign as they cannot boot her out now. If they don't, I can see a vote of no confidence coming pretty soon. When it's a fight between government and parliament, the government would be wise to remember that parliament can oust a government but government cannot change the parliament without parliaments consent.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

1) Mays deal has been dismissed on two occasions

2) Mays deal cannot (will not be) improved upon by the EU

3) The EU are quite willing to give us an extension whereby we all run in circles for another few months, while improving the EU bank balance

4) If Mays deal goes through we will still be in the EU

5) No deal is better than anything currently offered by May or the EU

6) Half the people reading this will not agree with any of the above

:p:

Re: Brexit (New).
 

But the half that matter will agree with you;)

Re: Brexit (New).
 

I think she will resign after MV3 no matter the result. The EU played well as there is a significant change allowing it to be re-introduced.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

**OFFICIAL** Macron gets his information from UK Cable forum

taken from BBC news (brexit stuff)

15:27
Marcon: 'Brexit decision based on fake news'

Mr Macron says "it is clear" the British people made a decision "without having all the information".

:D :D :D

Re: Brexit (New).
 

no confidence vote more likely to pass now Tom Rayner of sky reckons

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/st...14685469745153

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/st...15268821848065


biggest certainty is she gonna lose her vote on her deal

Re: Brexit (New).
 

In fairness I agree with 84%.

Re: Brexit (New).
 

Just like the French did when that idiot got into power.