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Probably the first of many sadly in the coming months.
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Hopefully though a recovery for the high street will see it change it's modus operandi. IMHO we should as part of our recovery be looking to move towards a more modern continental experience. |
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Supermarkets are doing ok still, our local Morrisons is advertising for drivers and pickers to boost the online shopping.
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Unfortunately all these workers jobs at supermarkets are temporary, a lot will not be there once we get over this nightmare. |
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Plea to Mods ..... could we change the name of this thread as it has had nothing to do with House of Fraser for months - like the change of name to the Coming Soon thread could we change this one to Changes on the High Street or something similar.
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Re: Changes on the High Street
Thread title changed to be more general/meaningful.
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For many businesses on the high street the lockdown is likely to be the last straw. This time it will include the coffee shops, nail bars and hairdressers which were taking over empty premises. |
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Part of the issue are the high rents and rates. If landlords don't give rent holidays they could find themselves with lots of empty units still returning no income.
Hairdressers and barbers are going to be really busy once restrictions end and if numbers have reduced those left are going to make a mint. It's the non-chain restaurants and such that may not survive but maybe they could do what my sister is doing and supply delivery meals at a set price, she is now running out of containers which may curtail things and not every outlet can do 2 courses for £5 but it keeps her running and she can keep some staff employed. One issue is going to be supply though afterwards. If source countries and transport are still reduced can we get the stuff in to sell/manufacture? |
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Sadly, I can't see pubs, clubs and restaurants being allowed to open at the second review. That could see a few go under. |
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Have you been in a school classroom lately? No way to impose social distancing or ensuring adequate hygiene with a shared bathroom facilities. Let alone hundreds of kids pushing through corridors every hour or so to their next lesson in high schools. Schools aren’t going back til September. The sooner the Coronavirus deniers accept that lockdown is here to stay and stop dangling pseudoscience around as a justification the better. Businesses going under presents an opportunity though - oversupply of retail space should see the price fall, and business rates will reduce to encourage this. Time to make the Amazons of this world pay their fair share in taxes and get a better balance. |
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Schools are already going back in Denmark.
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The Guvmin can do their bit by properly codifying the tax regime and in particular not allowing royalty payments to tax haven companies within companies of the same group, no matter how opaque. |
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Interestingly, the FT, that bastion of Communist thinking is saying: Virus lays bare the frailty of the social contract https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUwAAktX...jpg&name=small |
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2) Which tax haven are the royalty payments sent to? The Netherlands isn't a tax haven. 3) Royalty payments of Intellectual Property covers a lot more than just Amazon or Google. 4) The centralisation of royalty payments is an obvious simplification by Amazon et al. Why deal with dozens of tax regimes, when you can deal with just one. Just plain common sense.:rolleyes: 5) Amazon provide a huge amount of items that are on sale NOWHERE else. Eg Want an HDMI cable? High street says limited choice and high prices. Apart from anything else, the physical stores can't provide enough space for the range of items available. 6) Where are the costs of providing the Intellectual Property or Servers centres(Google) offset against? 7) They are effectively foreign companies. Just as, a car made by Mercedes in Germany will not have UK tax applied against it. |
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And the difference between eBay and Amazon as far as the high street is concerned is.....? Amazon supply the extra service which does apply UK tax. The startup costs of building the warehouses etc will as USUAL(ie same as for everybody else) eat into the actual tax paid. In the future that will change, again SAME for any other business. |
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As for those goods & services you buy, do you sell those goods and services on to someone else ? |
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I'm not claiming they're doing anything illegal - but the system is fundamentally flawed. We voted to leave the EU - I don't think it's reasonable for companies trading in the UK to shift their profits into the EU and pay tax there because it suits them. I want a tax system that suits us. It's me and all the other idiots on PAYE that have to stump up more as a result to fund our public services. |
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Where Amazon sell their own physical products, Amazon UK merely stores and delivers them on behalf of Amazon EU SarL. Amazon UK charges Amazon EU for that service and applies UK tax on on those charges. No different to if somebody in the UK, charges commission for arranging a delivery of a Mercedes from Germany. |
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Why would you, a Brexit supporter if I recall, prefer the Dutch government (or any other for that matter) to gain tax revenues over ours for what are fundamentally transactions in the UK? The mind absolutely boggles. |
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You are not living in the real world. The schools will re-open before the summer holidays, quite probably in May. I have not heard anyone 'denying' coronavirus. However, you think that if we have super-human powers to beat it. We don't. It will run its course, and that will be it. The vaccine will come later. Businesses must be allowed to get back to some kind of normal after this next three weeks are over. It's the vulnerable who need to be isolated, but I doubt whether they will stand for another year or so of imprisonment. |
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Must according to who? It’s not backed by science. It isn’t even backed by economics. |
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After three weeks are over we should risk the lives of tens of thousands, if not more people, because the economy won’t cope? Any alternative thought is obviously Communist? You are being ridiculous in the extreme to get a rise out of others. Which is a shame really, because it’s obvious to everyone else that the role of Government is to support people through difficulty. The real risk to your ideology is that they actually do it I suppose and years of “there’s no magic money tree” goes out the window. There is a magic money tree - we just don’t think the poor are worth using it on. I suppose though, ordinary folk and small businesses are probably to small to be worthy of bailouts in your eyes, only failing banks and failing airlines? |
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Denmark looks like it has the idea with excluding companies registered in tax-havens from new relief. In other words, if you've been paying you way you can get help. They also have added things about dividends and other trades for next 2 years.
This seems an eminently balanced way of looking at things. |
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If capitalism wasn’t in existential crisis before Coronavirus it is now hence the rush for businesses to get “back to normal”. The public, in this country and others, won’t tolerate billions in bailouts for big businesses when small businesses can’t even get support for 3-6 months. Responsible Governments will seize the opportunity to buy assets and seek a return on investment longer term. The market has failed. |
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The obvious answer - to move profits that could be taxed in the United Kingdom elsewhere. I'm flabbergasted at why anyone would support this - given the precarious state of our economy at this challenging time. |
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Strange how tax works isn't it . . .
I get paid a wage which I pay tax on Some of my (already taxed) wage buys petrol, which carries a tax I then use that (double taxed) petrol in my car . . . which incidentally has to be taxed :D it's a giggle aint it |
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If you don't pay tax in a country (for whatever reason), you don't get tax-payers' money support. |
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There's obviously some tax being avoided denying vital funding for our Great British public services and Our Boys fighting overseas. As Carth kindly pointed out money gets taxed at various different points on the journey so to say something has been taxed once is a red herring. Where's the patriotism nomadking? I don't want to fund an EU fighting force by stealth with Amazon's (or anyone elses) profits being taxed there for transactions in the UK. The question is why do you want to fund an EU army rather than ours? |
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How many people will fall into poverty and die if the economy collapses? Our total death toll, including coronavirus deaths, is the highest for just 20 years, it has been reported. Did we take such measures then? Of course not. Somehow, the world's public has been scared into believing that the end is nigh. I wonder who is to blame for that? Everything these days is sensationalised, which would be amusing if it didn't have such devastating consequences. We need to get this country running again. The sensationalists have had their fun. Now let's get on with getting people back to work, opening the schools and shops and ensuring that our public services are available again. Keep the infected and the vulnerable isolated by all means, but that is all that is required now. |
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The state has the ability to support people and businesses. People pay in for the best part of 50 years Old Boy and we are looking for the state to support them for a meagre three months. The underlying business models are still there - all we need is something to bridge the gap of a solid lockdown. Quote:
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It's a damning indictment of where you are in your head that you can use the word "fun" to describe the actions of those trying their best to prevent it. I suppose you view these people as absolute fodder - front line soldiers to go in to inevitably die while the generals (big business in your eyes) watch and await the outcome. I thought attitudes like those died out in the 20th Century but evidently not. Quote:
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I fear that part of your post is driven by antithesis to a particular economic system rather than on facts and rationalism. |
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Socialism is a nice to have, insofar as if you have enough you may feel inclined to not take so much and share - but only after you have taken care of you and yours first. The toilet roll debacle and unnecessary panic buying a few weeks only highlighted the fundamental base human traits. I don’t believe there was any more toilet rolls available in socialist strong hold areas. |
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I think it'd be inevitable that people would rethink the role and purpose of the state. We are £2 trillion in debt (before Coronavirus) the obvious question being who to? Where did it go? Who did it benefit? There's obviously a role for capitalism - as you say the natural profit making motive, and innovation through competition - are human instincts. However little regulated and barely controlled capitalism - that let's people like Richard Branson sue the NHS for millions then come cap in hand for a £4.8bn loan is simply unsustainable. If his airline fails it fails - the state should employ it's staff and take over it's routes. The game is presently rigged in his favour - he extracts all the profits in the good times and gets bailed out in the bad times. Quote:
That's people up and down the country in villages, towns and cities spending money. Virgin Atlantic on the other hand employ 9,000 people worldwide. The big banks - tens of thousands each. I've no issues with capitalism in markets that have perfect competition as understood in economics. None whatsoever. ---------- Post added at 21:49 ---------- Previous post was at 21:46 ---------- Quote:
That's not some sincere noble gesture to try and better one's self and provide for your family. |
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If you and your family were starving, you did not know when you would eat next and you had two tins of beans.....would you give one tin away? Or be happy if the government took away one of your tins and gave it to someone else? It’s human nature to accumulate possessions for oneself to make life better and if someone is not doing so well as you, then it’s up to you to be generous and help....that is fine and most people are. However, to be told by the state that you cannot better yourself, and all wealth will be owned by the state and distributed as they see fit, goes totally against human nature and is exactly why socialism/communism etc..doesn’t work. Never has, never will. Quote:
Since the dawn of time it has been in our nature to accumulate all that we can, to live and to pass on to our offspring. |
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You can natter on all you please about human nature, it doesn’t justify the excesses of failed capitalism any more that it justifies robbery, fraud or other petty crime for the purposes of acquiring goods.
Dipping the pension pot to prop up a failing business, while paying yourself dividends, and leaving the taxpayer to pick up the tab is “human nature”. You are also, as ever, viewing everything though a simplistic understanding that there is only capitalism or communism and not a grey area in between with (regulated) markets where they work and state funded provision in areas of market failure. I’m sorry you appear unable to understand the complexities of this, possibly because your adversarial political ideology doesn’t allow it, however I’m sure others can understand perfectly well. |
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All I see are lots of fancy words strung together to make a statement that the 'man in the street' could make with just two . . . which everyone from any walk of life understands :D |
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He will understand poverty and observe inequality. That said his ignorance will leave him susceptible to the press, social media and he will probably be convinced once more that his enemy is his neighbour and not the system itself. |
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Nail on head. Probably 75% of the population right there ;) |
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You could quite easily turn that argument to a current functioning communist model and say living in luxury whilst your citizens starve? Is that socialism? Quote:
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Certain things can be managed by the state or local government, whether it is done better or worse than the free market is open to argument. The usual suspects being transport and health, on the other hand government intervention where it isn’t required (British Leyland) can be devastating for a whole industry. Quote:
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All of the social services and charities fit into the grey area category encapsulated within a capitalist system that generates the wealth to fund them. And I'm sure you know this. There are distasteful aspects of capitalism that you have regularly highlighted, such as dipping into pension funds, ripping out asset value and other predatory behaviours. However, these are exceptions not the rule. You've said (it was you, wasn't it?) words to the effect that capitalism is one huge Ponzi scheme. If that were true, then your arguments could make progress. But it isn't so. You could single out certain businesses, perhaps Apple, Microsoft, Amazon (?) to offer three - where shares are distributed among employees, the founders obviously having an enormous stake. Is that a huge Ponzi scheme? Is the apex ending with a single person or group of persons? Gradually, governments will regulate/tax excesses and then someone will devise a new wheeze to get round that. But basically, capitalism works and is the natural place for markets to be. |
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Quite a simplistic view of a Pozni scheme. While money flows upwards often at collapse there are multiple winners of varying scale at the top, not just a single person or entity, with far more losers at the bottom.
I’d say that encapsulates uncontrolled and unregulated capitalism pretty well. |
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But the bit I've highlighted is where you've gone off into an unjustified generalisation. A gross overstatement created to suit your cynical view. |
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We can all see how you are winding all this up out of all proportion. It's what you do. However, this is now off-topic, so I will end it there. |
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Just to bring this down to earth, so to speak:
I and quite a few others think that the High Street as we know it is buggered. The starting point after this crisis ends will be last man standing plus small retailers who will get a lift from the Guvmin and banks. This could all be complicated by the foreign ownership of many enterprises who might well restrict their capital to their home countries. Likewise, office blocks may well have to be repurposed and turned into homes - a very good idea - but this shake out may well result in job losses. We have a very complicated situation on our hands. |
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Having changed the thread title to changes on the HIGH STREET can we please now keep this discussion to changes affecting RETAILERS who do business on the HIGH STREET, because there are a range of overlapping economic factors at play that effectively make this one single topic.
Please do not let it drift further into just any business disaster that may have come about for any other reason. For example ... discussion of BA making people redundant is not a HIGH STREET issue. ;) |
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Shops can operate during restrictions, that's been proven. This big sting is the Restaurants, bars, cafes etc.
The High street was already changing into a place of leisure rather than a place of shopping. If the bars,cafes etc go under, High Streets will become ghost towns. |
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The virus has given a boost to online shopping, which will likely be at the expense of actual High Street shops.
It remains to be seen how many survive, and how busy they will be, even when allowed to reopen. |
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As I've said before - last man standing. And possibly a complete trashing of shopping malls and with that some big landlords.
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It had been going that way but one key area, casual dining was suffering before the Coronavirus. Many chains were closing or cutting back eg Prezzo, Gourmet Burger Kitchen, Chimichanga, CAU. The sector was suffering from over-expansion to unprofitable sites, an increase in raw material costs following the decrease in the value of the £ and increases in minimum wages and in some areas, business rates. |
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This current situation has simply sped up the process, technological and engineering advancements have always had an impact on the way we do things. Give it another 20 years and everyone might be getting all their nutritional and medicinal requirements from tubes of 'gloop' . . . and wearing clothes made from a new material containing microbes that absorb CO2 and turn it into Carbon & Oxygen :D |
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Shops have to value add to survive. They need to keep prices competitive (come on-line the shipping costs can outweigh price benefit) but the real plus is service.
I want to try on clothes and especially shoes before I buy maybe excepting Tshirts, coats and looser items but return costs can be high. In archery shops often have indoor ranges so you can try out equipment, get advice so you get the right stuff, get stuff tuned and setup. It's part of the service and prices maybe a little higher to account for it. Maybe we will get back to smaller, local, specialist shopping. I'd love to have butchers, grocers, cheesemongers etc back but supermarkets seem to be some of the better survivors. |
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I like to 'see, feel, try' things before I purchase them, and am therefore not a lover of online shopping.
The wife & daughter are enthralled by it though . . . even though they probably return half of what they order. Isn't progress wonderful :D |
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My parents used to send me down there several times a week with a list and strict orders.:D |
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In Reading, John Lewis is on the High Street. M&S is on the High Street. O2 is on the high street.
Debenhams (screwed), House of Fraser (screwed) are the anchors for the Oracle Mall (screwed). Vodafone is in the Oracle (not yet screwed). Did JoHn Lewis & M&S take a canny decision back in 1988? |
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Im no expert on John Lewis but I can tell you they took a similar decision in Glasgow and opted to be the prime tenant of the Buchanan Galleries development which is a city centre mall, ignoring the nearby, out-of-town development at Braehead. Both developments opened in 1999.
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JL and M&S stayed put rather than go into the shiny new Mall (which is very popular). |
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Meanwhile in Watford they opted to move in to the Harlequin Centre when it opened in 1990 (now known as Intu Watford). This centre is adjacent to the High Street. They opted to keep the store’s traditional name (Trewins) although that has since changed. In Liverpool, they moved down to the new Liverpool One development in 2008 which has effectively moved the high street’s centre of gravity closer to Albert Dock. John Lewis is on a prime site right at the bottom of the development, which almost puts it outside what you would call the “high street” in Liverpool, but where it is located it is right in the way of everyone who walks between Albert Dock and the shops.
If anything can be inferred from this it’s that they’re not averse to sitting inside a mall development but where they do so they still prefer to be close to city/town centre footfall rather than next to a big out-of-town car park. |
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It's one big mess, isn't it?
Nearly all of this funnels up to landlords who are now under the biggest cosh of modern times. At the end of this, their real estate will only be worth a fraction of what they were worth last year. This funnels further up to those who lent money to the to develop the shopping centres and office buildings. Those lenders are in serious danger of not getting their money back. Then it funnels across to construction companies who will nbeed to find HS2 type projects pretty quickly if any of them are to survive. Finally, the Guvmin/Local Guvmins will suffer a serious dip in revenues from corporate taxes, business rates and VAT. Don't you think that the above is just the tip of the iceberg? |
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The asset class which people are thinking about now is offices. Wil less or more be needed in the short and medium terms? |
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There is a major change in the way we do things happening right now. The coronavirus emergency measures have expedited this process as people have embraced working at home and online shopping.
What will replace the offices and shops is the big debate. I think shopping centres will be replaced by leisure facilities, more estate agents, travel shops and fast food outlets, restaurants, bars, craft places, tech showcase and retail shops, mobile phone shops and gift shops. Bakeries, butchers, sweet shops, etc may make a comeback on the high street. The bigger supermarkets will continue to gravitate to out-of town facilities, leaving the smaller 'express' services in town centres and in housing estates. As for those office blocks - I guess that really does depend on whether company bosses want to revert back to their previous way of working. They must see that they can reduce their overheads if working from home became the norm. What the emergency measures have drawn attention to are the possibilities for the future. The question really is, do people like what they see? |
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I had to go into my town centre to get some toiletries for my mum.
Facing the car park in our shopping centre there is a Wilco on the left and Tesco on the right. The flooring has 2-metre markings, the Tesco one has to go around a small independent café/bakers which is take away only (boy did the sausage roll taste gorgeous after 2 months). Even though 95% of the shops are closed inside the centre they have put a 1 way system in place which has arrow on the floor, but I saw people ignoring them. During this time as shops are closed I have bought stuff online (£450 since lockdown) |
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It’s not just that. If/when (I view it as inevitable, but the current situation has perhaps accelerated it a decade) the working from home revolution happens suddenly commuter towns towns and some cities could find households in negative equity if it reverses the general trend of migration to cities for employment.
I live in a town where property prices are around 15-20% higher than some a few miles away because of better transport links to two major cities. If I’m working from home, or perhaps only going into the office five or six days per month - suddenly towns where the commute would be half an hour longer aren’t as unappealing as before. |
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As long as broadband speeds are good enough.
Maybe builders and going to need to rework houses to allow for home offices. If people spend more time at home are all these close builds going be as viable? People may now want more garden. |
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Virgin Media will not be reopening their high street stores & kiosks.
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.ph...ts-stores.html |
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True it will cut into profits but demand/prices are also relevant. If people don't want to buy 5 bed houses with no garden then why build them, why knock down nice big houses with grounds and build a small estate on it if there is no market? People have wanted big houses but no garden when they don't spend much time in them. Anyway this is diverting a bit from the topic - let's keep admins happy.
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See Jennets Park for details (11 years after opening they got a wretched Co-op). |
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