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Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
I would not expect it to be cheaper to run an electric car but it will be cleaner and that's the crux of the policy change. The revenue will be in the power generation.
I say again, embrace the inevitable or Joe Public will miss out on their rightly treasured independence and the roads will become reserved for the "elite" by default. Negativity plays right into their hands. |
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Thought of this thread when the SyFy Channel showed the first part of a new series earlier this evening, where cars run on blood!
http://tv.bt.com/tv/tv-from-bt/chris...11364202544307 |
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http://www.carbuyer.co.uk/tips-and-a...fuel-cell-cars |
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My two worries are:
1) Electric cars are too quiet. Almost been run over twice by silent Prius taxi drivers. Can't hear them coming, especially at lower speeds. 2) In crashes, electric cars seem to explode in to flames more than petrol cars going by the pattern I have seen in news articles. Assuming this is related to the batteries? |
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Lithium is pretty volatile isn't it. I can see a major rethink in fire fighting methods also being required. https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-be...ctronic-device |
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I cannot agree that electric cars explode in flames more than petrol ones. You mention a pattern in news articles which I haven't seen. Without objective data your item 2 becomes nothing more than an opinion which appears to have no foundation. |
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And Richard Hammond's electric car, also destroyed by a battery fire. Of course to know whether this is more likely we need to know the rates of fires relative to the numbers of cars of each type. |
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They need one of them turbo whistler things.
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Nah, just a bit of cardbord through the wheel spokes!
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Much has been said about the limits of lithium battery technology, both in terms of its theoretical maximum capacity and in terms of the world supply of the metal. However, researchers are now moving towards previously unknown chemistries that can potentially double the capacity of a lithium battery (or half the amount of lithium in it, for the same capacity). There is also some very promising research into calcium ion battery tech, as described here: http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/ne...ion-batteries/ They key to electric cars is range, not charging speed. If you have a car that can go as far as you can reasonably drive in a day, it doesn't matter if it takes a few hours to recover that range overnight. I have no doubt we will achieve that long before 2040. |
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No, charging speed is also important. What if you get home after using your car to near it's range, plug in then in get an unexpected all that requires you to drive somewhere?
True that could affect fuel too but you can then drive to a filling station and within minutes be ready to go again. |
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One house, one car, wouldn't be the worst rule. The fuel type is totally missing the main issue of too many cars and unnecessary short journeys.
Improved and cheaper public transport also might not be bad idea, but that's just an election soundbite that nobody really means or delivers on. |
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One house has two cars (atm) - mine and my oldest daughters, we do not even work in the same city, so could never use just one car.
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The energy companies will love this and make a fortune, I dare say their prices will rise dramatically ,
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We need to get away from the car obsession and start using our legs sometimes. Might help with the obesity epidemic too. |
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Until they come up with battery technology which approaches the convenience and range of current vehicles there's no way this will be anything other than a huge problem for most of us who live in the real world, in real streets with nowhere to park let alone charge our cars. If HMG had dedicated itself to creating that technology I'd have no problem - I have no love of petrol or diesel and electric vehicles can outperform both. What I see happening though is what's already started - owners of diesels which they were encouraged to buy as a direct result of so called expert opinion, finding themselves effectively punished. I predict that the infrastructure won't be ready, the advances in battery technology won't be sufficient, the environmental problems associated with making/disposing of batteries won't be solved and we'll find ourselves being told we can use our electric vehicles as much as we want as long as it's only between the hours of midnight and 6.00am and we don't try to recharge our vehicles more than 3 times a week. NOw if HMG is honest about this we can all at least make a judgement about whether environmental issues trump our convenience but let's not pretend that argument doesn't need to be had and we'll all be able to enjoy the same freedom and flexibility we currently do.
Yes that will probably have environmental benefits and we need to weigh those up but let's not try to pretend that battery technology is going to yield the freedom we all appreciate at lower cost and with all the wonderful environmental benefits we'd all like to see. That isn't going to happen. ---------- Post added at 16:05 ---------- Previous post was at 16:04 ---------- Quote:
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Lets also stop pretending this will make much of an impact on the environment either as electric cars means batteries which i honestly don't see the manufacturing of them to become green anytime soon let alone in 20 years. Whatever green benefit there might be will be massively offset by the growing economies that will more then fill any gap we might make. This is just the usual political bs to pander to people and the chances of it happening are slim to zero.
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Still, nice to see you can be flexible! :rolleyes::D |
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I am disabled and can only walk less than 40 yards so the option to start walking is impossible for me, the bus or train station is too far for me. |
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My apologies for missing that point. |
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Petrol / Diesel ban - How do they know that they will be in power in 2040 in order to decide this? Or has it already been decided by someone with more authority than whoever might be in power?
I'm not against the idea, but I would imagine they will want to make sure everyone is properly tagged, tracked and in the shiny new national carbon / battery rental / "energy-usage database" before all the rest of the vehicles are allowed to be electric-only. That is to say - if car ownership is even a thing by then. They will probably try to outlaw private vehicle ownership entirely, eventually - that is if self-driving electric taxis become cost-effective enough before electric vehicles are allowed to reach maximum penetration. |
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There will be no need anyway. France also plans to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040 and Norway's going to do it by 2025. Other countries will follow. Electric cars are about to go mainstream. VW is now promising an electric golf by 2020 with a range of up to 375 miles, priced so as to be within the "family car" price bracket. Once there is a decent choice of electric family cars with useful range, the rest will follow quite quickly. There won't be a massive, sudden scrappage scheme on 31 December 2039. By then, almost all fossil fuel cars will have been off the road for years. 2040 is the end point of a process that has already started. |
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I can see this moving road pricing up the agenda as a mechanism to replace the lost VAT and duty on fossil fuels for cars. Could get expensive for those who do large annual mileage.
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I can also see different charges for time of the day, roads driven on and god forbid automatic speeding fines as the gps can report you speed verses the known road speed :( |
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What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.
Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves. In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost. All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network. That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that. |
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Wagon drivers will only still exist as shunters at best and that won't continue for long. It won't stop there either, millions of jobs will disappear as AI and other technology replaces the need for human employees. This then poses a problem for corporate business, albeit theoretical ATM. Corporate business has drastically cut it's labour costs (the bean counters are going to be happy). Now however because the population cannot earn money due to the dearth of employment corporate business starts losing money because people aren't buying their products. How can they? They've all been sacked and replaced with machines! Oh how future technology will benefit us. |
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marxist-dream |
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No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22. |
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Heard it all before. Hopefully I'll be long gone by then. |
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Forget that cuppa: Charging an electric car at the same time as boiling your kettle will blow your fuse, National Grid warns
tea or tossler :shrug: Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...#ixzz4qPF6eOL8 Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook |
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I too will be pushing up Daises by then. |
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Bloody Eurocrats and their golden self-driving cars!
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For the many not the few for sure. The few won't be travelling economy class... ---------- Post added at 14:05 ---------- Previous post was at 14:03 ---------- Quote:
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Only one of the proposed plans, but it shows how the figures can be fiddled by moving vehicles away from monitored areas... or remove the buildings. |
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Although moving vehicles around can help as it's the concentration of pollution in any one place that is damaging to people's health. The same amount of pollution spread out is better in that respect although I don't know if it has the same impact on the environment or not. Obviously abolishing homes is a bit over the top. Although looks like the residents aren't opposed as the road seems pretty bad to live on. |
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This is interesting.
The First All-Electric Bus Rapid Transit Route in the U.S. 40miles or 2hrs per charge and 10mins recharge time. |
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40 miles seems a short distance on one charge, then again, if they only take 10 mins to recharge, they cannot be very powerful batteries.
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Most bus routes I've been are shorter than 40 miles in one direction, and buses can then quite easily wait for 10 minutes at the end of each route for setting off again. |
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Well it looks like the car makers will be ahead of this date anyway:
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They will all make an announcement like this at some point over the next couple of years. The writing is on the wall for the internal combustion engine and they know if they want to keep making cars they have to change. They're also looking enviously at Tesla which is probably about a decade ahead of everyone else in terms of R&D and worrying about their market share. The Tesla Model 3 should be giving the likes of Ford many sleepless nights.
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I suppose the availability of full petrol / diesel cars then depends on whether the scrappage schemes become permanent or not.
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We only ever buy 2nd hand and then keep the car 'til it doesn't work or gets too expensive to repair.
So not only do electrics need to be as convenient as fossil fuels but the availability and price of 2nd hand need to be reasonable too. |
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Next will be a hybrid for us for sure but the progression of internal combustion engines has been astonishing.
We drive a 0.9. Not all that long ago that would have been laughable but it's a pretty nippy little number thanks top technology. Probably buy a Toyota lunchbox next. |
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We have a 2003 183K Passat which is getting troublesome so we want to replace it but what with? We want a Superb and we would like a manual EU6 1.4 ACT Petrol but these are really, really rare (1 in the country at the moment)
So do we get an older EU5 diesel and replace it in 3 or 4 years when diesel taxes become punitive and the petrol/electric strategy is clearer or bite the bullet and buy new (around 22K) to keep for 10+ years. We don't have a guaranteed parking space so plug-in hybrids are off the menu :( |
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That's why I will resist at all costs. |
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2040 is just too far away. The revolution should begin NOW. Go electric!
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BT confirms the total running costs of electric cars are lower as it announces a move to a hybrid fleet. Will VM follow?
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Meanwhile, some of the charging issues are addressed in this article on Scotland. The article talks about large road-side batteries to charge vehicles plus multi-story charging parks. The conclusion was that there's money in solving it so business will invest money to solve it. Well worth a read. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-41181129 |
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It's so obviously the right thing to do only blinkered stick-in-the-mud's won't get it until it dawns on them electric is the future. Thank goodness for people like Elon Musk.
This is a big change but it's one for the better. It's the way progress works. |
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There will always be a slim minority of people who deny climate change, links to asthma etc. For those who don't want to give up their diesel/petrol cars, your existing cars won't be banned, just new petrol/diesel cars won't be on sale in 23 years' time. |
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At least this change gives everyone enough time to get used to it an plan, and should cover a lot of cars buy > use > replace cycle. A little better than the two years given for cars running on leaded petrol http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/225275.stm |
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I hope the predicted improvements in battery/charging technology occur in good time because the extent to which that happens will determine if, where and how we're all going to be able to keep our vehicles sufficiently charged to be usable. Sooner or later a national infrastructure programme will be required and it'll take years to deliver so I just hope we're not all left high and dry without any choice. |
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Left to market forces, I think it's a foregone conclusion anyway. ---------- Post added at 22:12 ---------- Previous post was at 22:11 ---------- Quote:
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Looks like we could be rid of diesel cars sooner than 2040. |
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Don't you just love the way governments encourage people to do stuff - e.g. buy diesel cars - but then decide it wasn't such a good idea after all and punish those who followed that advice... :spin:
In these days of 'convenience is king', I don't think a lot of people are going to be very happy faffing around in the dark, wind, raid, snow for example, plugging their cars in every day or two just to keep them reasonably usable. For those families which need more than one car, these problems will only be compounded. Yes of course there'll be those who have plenty of suitable off road parking who'll be able to pay for the best/quickest charging technology or even be lucky enough to charge their vehicles while they're parked in the office car park. What about those who don't have those options though? Are they going to find themselves effectively priced out of cars? :shrug: |
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But something has to be done. The very air we breathe is toxic and the danger level has been surpassed. We're all going to have to make sacrifices. At least electric is an option and we're not being told to give up our cars with no alternative. You can bet too that there is a vested interest in retaining the purchasing power of as many customers as possible.
What other solution is there? |
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There is a possible alternative though, at present available as a one cylinder engine and being marketed. It may be possible with further R&D to produce 4,6,8 &12 cylinder engines, who knows? Link |
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The benefits are massive: Less space will be required for parking as we would have fewer cars and those not active could go to a remote place rather than near town centers etc. It's much safer as these cars could go faster, react quicker and make fewer mistakes than humans do plus they could communicate with each other. Imagine all these cars being networked and able to make adjustments to their speed/mapping based on the load of other cars up ahead. It would solve this problem of charging as you no longer worry about parking or re-fueling cars. I think before too long it will seem crazy that humans spent large amounts of money to own cars which spent most of their time parked and were driven by humans with their slow reaction times and who used signals to communicate to each other about their intentions. |
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Whether we agree with the negative environmental impact of traditional car ownership/usage or not, the real world effect of these changes to what have become fundamental freedoms needs to be made clear to the public. Right now I'm wondering how happy people are going to be having to pack/unpack their 'auto' car with the stuff they need for work/leisure every day, possibly multiple times a day. I'm wondering how many disabled friendly 'auto' vehicles will be available or whether the disabled will just have to wait longer to get anywhere because the wheelchair friendly vehicles are in short supply. There's a whole long list of potential problems with all of this and given the stakes, i.e. global warming, that might be something we're going to have to accept but that doesn't alter the fact that this all needs to be thought properly through. 2040 seems like a very long way away but it's no time at all in which to fully address the considerable societal changes that this is going to involve. Of course there will be positives and there may be little choice but we need to be aware of and accept the negatives as well don't we? |
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What about the freedom to drive out into the countryside I'm sure all this driverless tech will be great and more convenient for the majority but what about those of us who want to just go to the middle of nowhere for a rest. Really cannot see the infrastructure covering 100% of the country even by 2040 so it isn't all rosy and green in the future but no doubt those of us who enjoy that will be given the lecture about sacrifice for the greater good.
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