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Kursk 11-08-2017 11:46

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
I would not expect it to be cheaper to run an electric car but it will be cleaner and that's the crux of the policy change. The revenue will be in the power generation.

I say again, embrace the inevitable or Joe Public will miss out on their rightly treasured independence and the roads will become reserved for the "elite" by default. Negativity plays right into their hands.

1andrew1 12-08-2017 01:03

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35911935)
The lost fuel related and other revenues will have to be recouped from somewhere as will the massive cost of the national infrastructure required to support such a dramatic change. I have no faith that our glorious leaders can deliver on this objective and of course if/when they don't it'll be us mere mortals who'll suffer most of all...

Maybe if they're all incompetent you should run for Parliament and kick things into touch? ;)

RichardCoulter 12-08-2017 02:04

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Thought of this thread when the SyFy Channel showed the first part of a new series earlier this evening, where cars run on blood!

http://tv.bt.com/tv/tv-from-bt/chris...11364202544307

Kursk 12-08-2017 11:03

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter (Post 35912052)
Thought of this thread when the SyFy Channel showed the first part of a new series earlier this evening, where cars run on blood!

http://tv.bt.com/tv/tv-from-bt/chris...11364202544307

Yes, yes that's all very interesting but does she get her kit off? :p:

OLD BOY 12-08-2017 11:58

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35911935)
... and therein lies the reality. We're not going to have a choice and will be reliant upon our local and national authorities to get it right and ensure sufficient infrastructure of the right type is there when it's required. I'm sorry but given the debacles surrounding London's new airport/runway, power generating capacity etc. I don't have a great deal of faith that the reality will bear any relation to what's being envisaged. It may be possible in societies such as Korea but in the UK I can see this being chaotic with a huge impact on personal freedom. Of course the great and the good will be effectively exempt from any of that and no doubt delighted that the rest of us aren't clogging up the roads for them as they go about their business of accumulating more wealth whilst living the high life. I reckon a great many people really believe that switching to all electric vehicles will provide them with just the same freedom and flexibility they enjoy now with petrol/diesel vehicles but much cheaper and IMHO the reality will be very different, certainly within the timescale set out. The lost fuel related and other revenues will have to be recouped from somewhere as will the massive cost of the national infrastructure required to support such a dramatic change. I have no faith that our glorious leaders can deliver on this objective and of course if/when they don't it'll be us mere mortals who'll suffer most of all...

I believe that we will have a choice, Osem, just not between petrol and diesel.


http://www.carbuyer.co.uk/tips-and-a...fuel-cell-cars

Osem 12-08-2017 12:12

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY (Post 35912083)
I believe that we will have a choice, Osem, just not between petrol and diesel.


http://www.carbuyer.co.uk/tips-and-a...fuel-cell-cars

and with fuel cell technology (or anything else) in the offing who's going to want to install/underwrite all the national infrastructure required to provide for charging electric vehicles in public places, workplaces, streets etc. unless they're guaranteed a return? As I said before, technology is moving faster than our ability to service it. By the time we build the charging infrastructure the world could well have moved on to something new. :shrug:

Qtx 12-08-2017 12:18

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
My two worries are:

1) Electric cars are too quiet. Almost been run over twice by silent Prius taxi drivers. Can't hear them coming, especially at lower speeds.

2) In crashes, electric cars seem to explode in to flames more than petrol cars going by the pattern I have seen in news articles. Assuming this is related to the batteries?

Osem 12-08-2017 12:26

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Qtx (Post 35912088)
My two worries are:

1) Electric cars are too quiet. Almost been run over twice by silent Prius taxi drivers. Can't hear them coming, especially at lower speeds.

2) In crashes, electric cars seem to explode in to flames more than petrol cars going by the pattern I have seen in news articles. Assuming this is related to the batteries?

I know what you mean about the lack of noise and it is dangerous. Our hearing is one of our most important senses when it comes to safety so I think these vehicles will need to generate some sort of 'artificial' noise.

Lithium is pretty volatile isn't it. I can see a major rethink in fire fighting methods also being required.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-be...ctronic-device

pip08456 12-08-2017 17:18

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Qtx (Post 35912088)
My two worries are:

1) Electric cars are too quiet. Almost been run over twice by silent Prius taxi drivers. Can't hear them coming, especially at lower speeds.

2) In crashes, electric cars seem to explode in to flames more than petrol cars going by the pattern I have seen in news articles. Assuming this is related to the batteries?

I agree with the silence of electric cars and they sould be given an artificial noise to make people aware of thier prescence.

I cannot agree that electric cars explode in flames more than petrol ones. You mention a pattern in news articles which I haven't seen.

Without objective data your item 2 becomes nothing more than an opinion which appears to have no foundation.

heero_yuy 12-08-2017 17:36

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35912130)
I cannot agree that electric cars explode in flames more than petrol ones. You mention a pattern in news articles which I haven't seen.

Without objective data your item 2 becomes nothing more than an opinion which appears to have no foundation.

Quote:

The two-seater was “totally destroyed” by the blaze which also caused smoke damage to the building next door.

It had been left plugged in to charge overnight but fire crews were called in the early hours of Sunday (July 9) morning to tackle the blaze.

Firefighters registered a temperature of 300C as the 17.6kWh lithium ion battery back continued to burn.
Source

And Richard Hammond's electric car, also destroyed by a battery fire.

Of course to know whether this is more likely we need to know the rates of fires relative to the numbers of cars of each type.

pip08456 12-08-2017 17:46

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35912134)
Of course to know whether this is more likely we need to know the rates of fires relative to the numbers of cars of each type.

Exactly, this is what's known as objective data.

Gary L 12-08-2017 23:59

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
They need one of them turbo whistler things.

pip08456 13-08-2017 00:05

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Nah, just a bit of cardbord through the wheel spokes!

Gary L 13-08-2017 00:17

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35912178)
Nah, just a bit of cardbord through the wheel spokes!

wooden pegs. otherwise you'll be having to get out and adjusting all the time with the plastic ones.

OLD BOY 13-08-2017 21:01

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Qtx (Post 35912088)
My two worries are:

1) Electric cars are too quiet. Almost been run over twice by silent Prius taxi drivers. Can't hear them coming, especially at lower speeds.

2) In crashes, electric cars seem to explode in to flames more than petrol cars going by the pattern I have seen in news articles. Assuming this is related to the batteries?

H'mm. You really should look both ways before crossing a road, not just rely on your hearing! Were you not taught this at school and by your parents?

Chris 14-08-2017 14:45

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35911437)
I think people are putting too much faith in battery technology improving.

There is however some simple physics that shows why this is not really viable: Say you had a 100 KWhr battery, this is enough to give a decent range, to charge it in 1 hour requires 230v at 440 Amps excluding inefficiencies. Just think of the cable thickness and "plug".

Now you want a fast rechage at a garage say, 6 minutes? that's 4,400 Amps!!! A cable to carry that would be so heavy you'd need a crane. The magnetic field generated by such a current is likely to erase things in the vicinity.

Quick refilling and long range can only be got from a fuel cell / hydride tank using Hydrogen. A simple swappable tank cartridge could have you filled up in under a minute and the tanks are recharged with Hydrogen at the garage, generated using surplus electricity, where you stopped. The fuel cell can also be run "backwards" for a slow recharge of the tank at your home.

Hydrogen has to be manufactured on earth, and the process is expensive and energy intensive. It must also be shipped around in heavy pressure vessels. It is more efficient to use gerenated electricity to directly charge a consumer's battery than it is to use electricity to gerenate hydrogen and then distribute it to filling stations (using lorries which presumably are also consuming hydrogen as they go).

Much has been said about the limits of lithium battery technology, both in terms of its theoretical maximum capacity and in terms of the world supply of the metal. However, researchers are now moving towards previously unknown chemistries that can potentially double the capacity of a lithium battery (or half the amount of lithium in it, for the same capacity). There is also some very promising research into calcium ion battery tech, as described here:

http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/ne...ion-batteries/

They key to electric cars is range, not charging speed. If you have a car that can go as far as you can reasonably drive in a day, it doesn't matter if it takes a few hours to recover that range overnight. I have no doubt we will achieve that long before 2040.

tweetiepooh 14-08-2017 14:52

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
No, charging speed is also important. What if you get home after using your car to near it's range, plug in then in get an unexpected all that requires you to drive somewhere?

True that could affect fuel too but you can then drive to a filling station and within minutes be ready to go again.

Chris 14-08-2017 14:56

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35912425)
No, charging speed is also important. What if you get home after using your car to near it's range, plug in then in get an unexpected all that requires you to drive somewhere?

True that could affect fuel too but you can then drive to a filling station and within minutes be ready to go again.

No, it really isn't - not once you get the car's maximum range north of 600 miles (which is quite achievable if current research into lithium and calcium pays off - Tesla's best performing vehicles can already go well over 300). Who actually drives anywhere near that distance in a day? An electric car leaves home with a full tank every morning because it always charges overnight. You could do an insane 400 mile day trip and still have enough left to do an additional 200 miles if you get that call. In those circumstances the car wouldn't be the issue, it would be driver fatigue.

Osem 14-08-2017 22:16

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35912427)
No, it really isn't - not once you get the car's maximum range north of 600 miles (which is quite achievable if current research into lithium and calcium pays off - Tesla's best performing vehicles can already go well over 300). Who actually drives anywhere near that distance in a day? An electric car leaves home with a full tank every morning because it always charges overnight. You could do an insane 400 mile day trip and still have enough left to do an additional 200 miles if you get that call. In those circumstances the car wouldn't be the issue, it would be driver fatigue.

Of course it's not so much of an issue for people with convenient off road parking but what do households where there is no facility for off road parking do overnight and those households with multiple vehicles? There are countless streets across the country where residents can't even park on the street outside their houses. How/when/where do they charge their cars? I'd agree range is a big factor but that is reduced significantly by the manner in which the vehicle is driven and the use of such facilities as aircon and heating.

Mr K 14-08-2017 22:36

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
One house, one car, wouldn't be the worst rule. The fuel type is totally missing the main issue of too many cars and unnecessary short journeys.
Improved and cheaper public transport also might not be bad idea, but that's just an election soundbite that nobody really means or delivers on.

Paul 14-08-2017 23:00

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
One house has two cars (atm) - mine and my oldest daughters, we do not even work in the same city, so could never use just one car.

Kursk 14-08-2017 23:02

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35912535)
One house, one car, wouldn't be the worst rule. The fuel type is totally missing the main issue of too many cars and unnecessary short journeys.
Improved and cheaper public transport also might not be bad idea, but that's just an election soundbite that nobody really means or delivers on.

The elite will have authorised vehicle ownership with a static charging point facility at home. The hoi polloi will not have this facility and will lease cars on an as and when needed basis.

Chris 15-08-2017 00:27

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35912526)
Of course it's not so much of an issue for people with convenient off road parking but what do households where there is no facility for off road parking do overnight and those households with multiple vehicles? There are countless streets across the country where residents can't even park on the street outside their houses. How/when/where do they charge their cars? I'd agree range is a big factor but that is reduced significantly by the manner in which the vehicle is driven and the use of such facilities as aircon and heating.

Of course, there's absolutely no point having one of those motorised carriages unless you're lucky enough to live near a pharmacy that sells petroleum spirit ...

denphone 15-08-2017 07:17

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35912535)
One house, one car, wouldn't be the worst rule. The fuel type is totally missing the main issue of too many cars and unnecessary short journeys.
Improved and cheaper public transport also might not be bad idea, but that's just an election soundbite that nobody really means or delivers on.

You can hardly get down some roads as its like a obstacle course for the OH trying to get through the narrow gaps left by cars being parked here , there and everywhere.

nashville 15-08-2017 12:06

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
The energy companies will love this and make a fortune, I dare say their prices will rise dramatically ,

Mr K 15-08-2017 12:33

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35912543)
One house has two cars (atm) - mine and my oldest daughters, we do not even work in the same city, so could never use just one car.

Ok, i'd be flexible and say a maximum of 2 cars per house - even that would be a vast improvement, where you see several cars per house, sometimes more than there are people living there ! (of course there'd have to be exceptions for those who can't genuinely get about and the car is a lifeline).

We need to get away from the car obsession and start using our legs sometimes. Might help with the obesity epidemic too.

Chris 15-08-2017 12:41

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35912622)
Ok, i'd be flexible and say a maximum of 2 cars per house - even that would be a vast improvement, where you see several cars per house, sometimes more than there are people living there ! (of course there'd have to be exceptions for those who can't genuinely get about and the car is a lifeline).

We need to get away from the car obsession and start using our legs sometimes. Might help with the obesity epidemic too.

Tesla's long-term aim is for their cars to be fully autonomous. Your car should be able to rest in a remote charging station overnight and then come to your house when you call it.:D

Osem 16-08-2017 17:05

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Until they come up with battery technology which approaches the convenience and range of current vehicles there's no way this will be anything other than a huge problem for most of us who live in the real world, in real streets with nowhere to park let alone charge our cars. If HMG had dedicated itself to creating that technology I'd have no problem - I have no love of petrol or diesel and electric vehicles can outperform both. What I see happening though is what's already started - owners of diesels which they were encouraged to buy as a direct result of so called expert opinion, finding themselves effectively punished. I predict that the infrastructure won't be ready, the advances in battery technology won't be sufficient, the environmental problems associated with making/disposing of batteries won't be solved and we'll find ourselves being told we can use our electric vehicles as much as we want as long as it's only between the hours of midnight and 6.00am and we don't try to recharge our vehicles more than 3 times a week. NOw if HMG is honest about this we can all at least make a judgement about whether environmental issues trump our convenience but let's not pretend that argument doesn't need to be had and we'll all be able to enjoy the same freedom and flexibility we currently do.

Yes that will probably have environmental benefits and we need to weigh those up but let's not try to pretend that battery technology is going to yield the freedom we all appreciate at lower cost and with all the wonderful environmental benefits we'd all like to see. That isn't going to happen.

---------- Post added at 16:05 ---------- Previous post was at 16:04 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35912624)
Tesla's long-term aim is for their cars to be fully autonomous. Your car should be able to rest in a remote charging station overnight and then come to your house when you call it.:D

... and who'll be held responsible when a jaywalking, mobile phone addict gets run over by it? ;)

RizzyKing 16-08-2017 18:15

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Lets also stop pretending this will make much of an impact on the environment either as electric cars means batteries which i honestly don't see the manufacturing of them to become green anytime soon let alone in 20 years. Whatever green benefit there might be will be massively offset by the growing economies that will more then fill any gap we might make. This is just the usual political bs to pander to people and the chances of it happening are slim to zero.

OLD BOY 17-08-2017 17:27

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35912622)
Ok, i'd be flexible and say a maximum of 2 cars per house - even that would be a vast improvement, where you see several cars per house, sometimes more than there are people living there ! (of course there'd have to be exceptions for those who can't genuinely get about and the car is a lifeline).

We need to get away from the car obsession and start using our legs sometimes. Might help with the obesity epidemic too.

You're a bit of a control freak on the quiet, aren't you, Mr K?

Still, nice to see you can be flexible! :rolleyes::D

Ken W 17-08-2017 18:13

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35912622)

We need to get away from the car obsession and start using our legs sometimes. Might help with the obesity epidemic too.


I am disabled and can only walk less than 40 yards so the option to start walking is impossible for me, the bus or train station is too far for me.

denphone 17-08-2017 18:17

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken W (Post 35913028)
I am disabled and can only walk less than 40 yards so the option to start walking is impossible for me, the bus or train station is too far for me.

Nothing like Mr K's obsession with generalising and stereotyping everybody again.

Mr K 17-08-2017 18:28

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ken W (Post 35913028)
I am disabled and can only walk less than 40 yards so the option to start walking is impossible for me, the bus or train station is too far for me.

Yes, you missed out the bit on my post where I said there'd have to be exceptions for those that genuinely couldn't get around.

Ken W 17-08-2017 19:36

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K (Post 35913032)
Yes, you missed out the bit on my post where I said there'd have to be exceptions for those that genuinely couldn't get around.


My apologies for missing that point.

Onramp 18-08-2017 00:45

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Petrol / Diesel ban - How do they know that they will be in power in 2040 in order to decide this? Or has it already been decided by someone with more authority than whoever might be in power?

I'm not against the idea, but I would imagine they will want to make sure everyone is properly tagged, tracked and in the shiny new national carbon / battery rental / "energy-usage database" before all the rest of the vehicles are allowed to be electric-only. That is to say - if car ownership is even a thing by then. They will probably try to outlaw private vehicle ownership entirely, eventually - that is if self-driving electric taxis become cost-effective enough before electric vehicles are allowed to reach maximum penetration.

Chris 18-08-2017 12:52

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Onramp (Post 35913075)
Petrol / Diesel ban - How do they know that they will be in power in 2040 in order to decide this? Or has it already been decided by someone with more authority than whoever might be in power?

It won't be legislated for in 2040. The laws will be passed now, or at some point in the near future, and they will rest on the statute book until then. A future government that did not want to meet the target would have to ask Parliament to repeal the law. While that is entirely possible to do, it is very unlikely that another party would want to make itself look so environmentally irresponsible.

There will be no need anyway. France also plans to phase out fossil fuel cars by 2040 and Norway's going to do it by 2025. Other countries will follow.

Electric cars are about to go mainstream. VW is now promising an electric golf by 2020 with a range of up to 375 miles, priced so as to be within the "family car" price bracket. Once there is a decent choice of electric family cars with useful range, the rest will follow quite quickly.

There won't be a massive, sudden scrappage scheme on 31 December 2039. By then, almost all fossil fuel cars will have been off the road for years. 2040 is the end point of a process that has already started.

heero_yuy 18-08-2017 14:07

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
I can see this moving road pricing up the agenda as a mechanism to replace the lost VAT and duty on fossil fuels for cars. Could get expensive for those who do large annual mileage.

Osem 18-08-2017 21:10

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913127)
I can see this moving road pricing up the agenda as a mechanism to replace the lost VAT and duty on fossil fuels for cars. Could get expensive for those who do large annual mileage.

It's going to get a lot more expensive for everyone who drives but that'll happen when we have no choice. The future of transport doesn't include more freedom for all of us it involves less. There's clearly an environmental argument here but that I believe is what's going to happen. Of course the great and the good will need their exemptions from anything onerous...

Sirius 18-08-2017 21:21

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913127)
I can see this moving road pricing up the agenda as a mechanism to replace the lost VAT and duty on fossil fuels for cars. Could get expensive for those who do large annual mileage.

Road charging will be by GPS built into the engine management system or by ANPR. I cannot see any other option as they will not be able to separate what you use to charge your car and what you use for normal household usage.

I can also see different charges for time of the day, roads driven on and god forbid automatic speeding fines as the gps can report you speed verses the known road speed :(

Damien 18-08-2017 21:51

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.

Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves.

In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost.

All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network.

That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that.

Onramp 18-08-2017 22:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35913221)
What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.

Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves.

In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost.

All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network.

That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that.

Not to mention that there will be a "percieved security risk" to allowing "private individuals" to own and operate "dangerous" motor vehicles in an increasingly pedestrianised and self-driving society, together with the environmental red scare, creating the perfect excuse to clamp down on freedom of movement.

Damien 18-08-2017 22:45

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Onramp (Post 35913223)
Not to mention that there will be a "percieved security risk" to allowing "private individuals" to own and operate "dangerous" motor vehicles in an increasingly pedestrianised and self-driving society, together with the environmental red scare, creating the perfect excuse to clamp down on freedom of movement.

I think people will look back at the fact humans drove cars, making all the decisions themselves, as bizarre. Our reaction times are poor, we're unpredictable and we have really primitive ways of expressing our intentions to each other. A computer can make instant decisions and can network in to know what every other car is doing. They could speed along way in excess of 100mph and still know what each car around them, for miles, will do. They could make constant minor changes in speed to adjust for the action of cars miles ahead.

pip08456 18-08-2017 23:27

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35913221)
What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.

Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves.

In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost.

All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network.

That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that.

Nail on head Damien. Personal ownership of a car will disappear, busses will become self drive (if their continued existence is justified).

Wagon drivers will only still exist as shunters at best and that won't continue for long.

It won't stop there either, millions of jobs will disappear as AI and other technology replaces the need for human employees.

This then poses a problem for corporate business, albeit theoretical ATM.

Corporate business has drastically cut it's labour costs (the bean counters are going to be happy).

Now however because the population cannot earn money due to the dearth of employment corporate business starts losing money because people aren't buying their products. How can they? They've all been sacked and replaced with machines!

Oh how future technology will benefit us.

TheDaddy 21-08-2017 10:43

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35913221)
What's going to replace fuel tax is a trivial problem. That isn't going to cause the biggest issues in the future. The problem is going to be automation. So many jobs are going to be taken by automation that if we're not careful all this income will funnel up to the people who own the technology.

Self-driving cars are an example. We're very close to self-driving trunks being able to do the bulk of long-distance freight. In the near term they'll require drivers for the 'last mile', driving the trunks from stop-off points to their location on the side roads but otherwise they can probably drive themselves.

In the slightly longer term we may well have 'cars as a service'. Uber without the human drivers. You wouldn't need to own a car and instead just call one up via a Uber-style app on your phone/watch/voice activated device. The lack of a human driver and the fact the car could run continually would make this far more cost-effective per person than owning a car but the companies that run it would earn a fortune. Just think how inefficient cars are now. Most people have their cars sitting idle the majority of the time, doing nothing. It's a waste of money and space. Instead fewer cars can service more people at a fraction of the cost.

All of that is without mentioning how bizarre it may seem in future that we trusted these fast metal machines to humans with our slow human brains and lack of ability to coordinate in a wider network.

That's where all the money will go. Fuel tax would be nothing compared to that.

Problem with this notion is there's no responsibility, you'll always need a bum on a seat to take the blame when something goes tragically wrong

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35913225)
I think people will look back at the fact humans drove cars, making all the decisions themselves, as bizarre. Our reaction times are poor, we're unpredictable and we have really primitive ways of expressing our intentions to each other. A computer can make instant decisions and can network in to know what every other car is doing. They could speed along way in excess of 100mph and still know what each car around them, for miles, will do. They could make constant minor changes in speed to adjust for the action of cars miles ahead.

And yet driverless cars have already killed someone, it had done 250k miles iirc, how many people have you killed in your last 250 000 miles Damien

inquirer/news/2463487/man-killed-in-tesla-self-driving-car-cras



Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913230)
Nail on head Damien. Personal ownership of a car will disappear, busses will become self drive (if their continued existence is justified).

Wagon drivers will only still exist as shunters at best and that won't continue for long.

It won't stop there either, millions of jobs will disappear as AI and other technology replaces the need for human employees.

This then poses a problem for corporate business, albeit theoretical ATM.

Corporate business has drastically cut it's labour costs (the bean counters are going to be happy).

Now however because the population cannot earn money due to the dearth of employment corporate business starts losing money because people aren't buying their products. How can they? They've all been sacked and replaced with machines!

Oh how future technology will benefit us.

Universal basic income will mean we all keep on buying stuff we don't need, Switzerland just rejected the idea

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marxist-dream

pip08456 21-08-2017 11:45

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy (Post 35913492)
Universal basic income will mean we all keep on buying stuff we don't need, Switzerland just rejected the idea

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marxist-dream

In a future world where automation means there is no need of human employees (or very few jobs where needed) how is the population to survive?

No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22.

heero_yuy 21-08-2017 12:04

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913501)
In a future world where automation means there is no need of human employees (or very few jobs where needed) how is the population to survive?

No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22.

No, no, you don't understand: It will be a wonderful socialist utopia where everybody has an equal amount of money doled out by the state, there'll just be one type of car and everybody gets one and nobody will need to work. ;)

Damien 21-08-2017 12:32

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913501)
In a future world where automation means there is no need of human employees (or very few jobs where needed) how is the population to survive?

No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22.

Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913502)
No, no, you don't understand: It will be a wonderful socialist utopia where everybody has an equal amount of money doled out by the state, there'll just be one type of car and everybody gets one and nobody will need to work. ;)

There will need to be an answer to this problem though. Even if we develop new industries that can't easily be automated the rate of change will be drastic and a lot of people will lose their jobs. It will even more dramatic if the money from these services funnel into a handful of companies.

pip08456 21-08-2017 12:32

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913502)
No, no, you don't understand: It will be a wonderful socialist utopia where everybody has an equal amount of money doled out by the state, there'll just be one type of car and everybody gets one and nobody will need to work. ;)


Heard it all before.

Hopefully I'll be long gone by then.

papa smurf 21-08-2017 18:02

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Forget that cuppa: Charging an electric car at the same time as boiling your kettle will blow your fuse, National Grid warns


tea or tossler :shrug:

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...#ixzz4qPF6eOL8
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Ken W 21-08-2017 18:20

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913508)
Heard it all before.

Hopefully I'll be long gone by then.


I too will be pushing up Daises by then.

denphone 21-08-2017 18:27

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913508)
Heard it all before.

Hopefully I'll be long gone by then.

What another 30 years awaits you yet pip.;)

TheDaddy 21-08-2017 20:54

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35913501)
In a future world where automation means there is no need of human employees (or very few jobs where needed) how is the population to survive?

No money = no food on the table. No work = no money. Catch 22.

Big corporations wanting to sell you crap = them providing a chunk of profits to enable us to buy said crap plus the creative industries will flourish, new industries will be born and governments will legislate to ensure a certain amount of people are kept employed or else they won't be selling said crap in those countries

Osem 22-08-2017 13:37

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913502)
No, no, you don't understand: It will be a wonderful socialist utopia where everybody has an equal amount of money doled out by the state, there'll just be one type of car and everybody gets one and nobody will need to work. ;)

There'll be one type of car for us and a very different choice for our grand leaders and Eurocrats you can bet.

Damien 22-08-2017 13:39

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Bloody Eurocrats and their golden self-driving cars!

heero_yuy 22-08-2017 14:46

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35913647)
There'll be one type of car for us and a very different choice for our grand leaders and Eurocrats you can bet.

Here's yours:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...5&d=1503405901:D

Attachment 27065

Osem 22-08-2017 15:05

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35913654)

Yeah, how did I know it'd look like that. :D

For the many not the few for sure. The few won't be travelling economy class...

---------- Post added at 14:05 ---------- Previous post was at 14:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35913648)
Bloody Eurocrats and their golden self-driving cars!

You can be sure it won't be just them.

Damien 22-08-2017 15:13

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35913655)
You can be sure it won't be just them.

I am hoping I get one in return for being so relentless upbeat on the prospect.

Taf 22-08-2017 21:09

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Homes could be demolished.... under plans to improve air quality in an area with one of the UK's highest pollution levels.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-s...wales-40976647

Only one of the proposed plans, but it shows how the figures can be fiddled by moving vehicles away from monitored areas... or remove the buildings.

Damien 22-08-2017 21:22

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf (Post 35913698)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-s...wales-40976647

Only one of the proposed plans, but it shows how the figures can be fiddled by moving vehicles away from monitored areas... or remove the buildings.

Wonder what it is about Caerphilly that produces the heaviest pollution outside London. Seems extreme. :erm:

Although moving vehicles around can help as it's the concentration of pollution in any one place that is damaging to people's health. The same amount of pollution spread out is better in that respect although I don't know if it has the same impact on the environment or not.

Obviously abolishing homes is a bit over the top. Although looks like the residents aren't opposed as the road seems pretty bad to live on.

pip08456 29-08-2017 18:22

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
This is interesting.

The First All-Electric Bus Rapid Transit Route in the U.S.


40miles or 2hrs per charge and 10mins recharge time.

Paul 29-08-2017 22:05

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
40 miles seems a short distance on one charge, then again, if they only take 10 mins to recharge, they cannot be very powerful batteries.

I love the first comment ;

Quote:

The good part is, when the batteries die a couple of miles short - there are plenty of people on board to help push!

BenMcr 29-08-2017 23:54

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35914482)
40 miles seems a short distance on one charge, then again, if they only take 10 mins to recharge, they cannot be very powerful batteries.

Depends if the distance and recharge times are suitable for the use of a bus on a route more than whether they are the latest technology.

Most bus routes I've been are shorter than 40 miles in one direction, and buses can then quite easily wait for 10 minutes at the end of each route for setting off again.

1andrew1 30-08-2017 00:50

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35914482)
40 miles seems a short distance on one charge, then again, if they only take 10 mins to recharge, they cannot be very powerful batteries.

I love the first comment ;

Ha ha I read that too. But in London five miles is a long way so maybe this is suited to some urban areas.

BenMcr 07-09-2017 10:57

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Well it looks like the car makers will be ahead of this date anyway:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...brid-cars-2020

Quote:

Jaguar Land Rover has become the latest large carmaker to say it will stop building cars solely powered by internal combustion engines, two months after Volvo pledged to do so.

The UK-based manufacturer promised that all new models from 2020 will be fully electric or hybrid, a year later than Volvo’s target, but a big step beyond its unveiling last November of a single electric concept car.

Chris 07-09-2017 11:31

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
They will all make an announcement like this at some point over the next couple of years. The writing is on the wall for the internal combustion engine and they know if they want to keep making cars they have to change. They're also looking enviously at Tesla which is probably about a decade ahead of everyone else in terms of R&D and worrying about their market share. The Tesla Model 3 should be giving the likes of Ford many sleepless nights.

heero_yuy 07-09-2017 12:08

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris (Post 35915584)
They will all make an announcement like this at some point over the next couple of years. The writing is on the wall for the internal combustion engine and they know if they want to keep making cars they have to change. They're also looking enviously at Tesla which is probably about a decade ahead of everyone else in terms of R&D and worrying about their market share. The Tesla Model 3 should be giving the likes of Ford many sleepless nights.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to the second hand car market when people have to make the choice between the range, power and convenience of a fossil fuelled vehicle vs the limits of the available new cars.

BenMcr 07-09-2017 12:14

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
I suppose the availability of full petrol / diesel cars then depends on whether the scrappage schemes become permanent or not.

tweetiepooh 07-09-2017 15:17

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
We only ever buy 2nd hand and then keep the car 'til it doesn't work or gets too expensive to repair.

So not only do electrics need to be as convenient as fossil fuels but the availability and price of 2nd hand need to be reasonable too.

heero_yuy 07-09-2017 15:50

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh (Post 35915625)
We only ever buy 2nd hand and then keep the car 'til it doesn't work or gets too expensive to repair.

Economical motoring as cars are so reliable these days. I can remember when a car that had 100K on the clock was a complete wreck mechanically. These days it's barely run in.

Quote:

So not only do electrics need to be as convenient as fossil fuels but the availability and price of 2nd hand need to be reasonable too.
I can see trying to sell a 5 year old electric almost impossible without a new battery. You can't tell if it's about to die. Unlike a petrol/diesel engine if it smokes, overheats or knocks you know it's shagged.

papa smurf 07-09-2017 16:37

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35915633)
Economical motoring as cars are so reliable these days. I can remember when a car that had 100K on the clock was a complete wreck mechanically. These days it's barely run in.



I can see trying to sell a 5 year old electric almost impossible without a new battery. You can't tell if it's about to die. Unlike a petrol/diesel engine if it smokes, overheats or knocks you know it's shagged.

and second hand engines are cheap

Ignitionnet 07-09-2017 17:11

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Next will be a hybrid for us for sure but the progression of internal combustion engines has been astonishing.

We drive a 0.9. Not all that long ago that would have been laughable but it's a pretty nippy little number thanks top technology.

Probably buy a Toyota lunchbox next.

daveeb 07-09-2017 18:43

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet (Post 35915649)
Next will be a hybrid for us for sure but the progression of internal combustion engines has been astonishing.

We drive a 0.9. Not all that long ago that would have been laughable but it's a pretty nippy little number thanks top technology.

Probably buy a Toyota lunchbox next.

Peugeot are bringing out a hybrid version of their new 3008 suv in 2019, as you mentioned it's a big car with only a 1.2 engine but still very nippy, if they could sort out their slightly flakey software it will be very tempting (if the public sector cap ever gets lifted :erm:).

ianch99 07-09-2017 19:28

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
We have a 2003 183K Passat which is getting troublesome so we want to replace it but what with? We want a Superb and we would like a manual EU6 1.4 ACT Petrol but these are really, really rare (1 in the country at the moment)

So do we get an older EU5 diesel and replace it in 3 or 4 years when diesel taxes become punitive and the petrol/electric strategy is clearer or bite the bullet and buy new (around 22K) to keep for 10+ years.

We don't have a guaranteed parking space so plug-in hybrids are off the menu :(

Hom3r 07-09-2017 19:46

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99 (Post 35915681)
We have a 2003 183K Passat which is getting troublesome so we want to replace it but what with? We want a Superb and we would like a manual EU6 1.4 ACT Petrol but these are really, really rare (1 in the country at the moment)

So do we get an older EU5 diesel and replace it in 3 or 4 years when diesel taxes become punitive and the petrol/electric strategy is clearer or bite the bullet and buy new (around 22K) to keep for 10+ years.

We don't have a guaranteed parking space so plug-in hybrids are off the menu :(

Whatr about battery life/cost.

That's why I will resist at all costs.

Osem 10-09-2017 00:51

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hom3r (Post 35915688)
Whatr about battery life/cost.

That's why I will resist at all costs.

Our glorious selfless leaders, who'll be immune from any inconvenience suffered by the rest of us, don't want us to worry about that until we've got no choice then the costs and taxes will creep in and up...

denphone 10-09-2017 06:52

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35915939)
Our glorious selfless leaders, who'll be immune from any inconvenience suffered by the rest of us, don't want us to worry about that until we've got no choice then the costs and taxes will creep in and up...

That just about sums it up.:tu:

Kursk 10-09-2017 12:35

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
2040 is just too far away. The revolution should begin NOW. Go electric!

1andrew1 10-09-2017 15:46

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
BT confirms the total running costs of electric cars are lower as it announces a move to a hybrid fleet. Will VM follow?
Quote:

Mr Dunne said BT had been testing different low carbon options in more than a dozen vehicles for some time and although hybrids that do not run on electric motors alone were more suitable for carrying heavy equipment, this could change.
“I wouldn’t discount a large percentage of the fleet being electric-only, given how quickly the technology is advancing,” he told the FT.
As those advances continue it makes the business case for battery-only cars a “no-brainer”, he added, explaining the BT moves to phase out diesel and petrol-only vehicles of such vehicles had been found to be lower than for those with internal combustion engines.
https://www.ft.com/content/2a1ee496-...a-eda243196c2c

Meanwhile, some of the charging issues are addressed in this article on Scotland. The article talks about large road-side batteries to charge vehicles plus multi-story charging parks. The conclusion was that there's money in solving it so business will invest money to solve it. Well worth a read.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-41181129

Kursk 10-09-2017 19:24

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
It's so obviously the right thing to do only blinkered stick-in-the-mud's won't get it until it dawns on them electric is the future. Thank goodness for people like Elon Musk.

This is a big change but it's one for the better. It's the way progress works.

1andrew1 10-09-2017 22:23

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35915989)
It's so obviously the right thing to do only blinkered stick-in-the-mud's won't get it until it dawns on them electric is the future. Thank goodness for people like Elon Musk.

This is a big change but it's one for the better. It's the way progress works.

The biggest driver behind electric car adoption at the moment is China. It learnt the hard way about pollution.
There will always be a slim minority of people who deny climate change, links to asthma etc.
For those who don't want to give up their diesel/petrol cars, your existing cars won't be banned, just new petrol/diesel cars won't be on sale in 23 years' time.

heero_yuy 11-09-2017 11:00

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35916008)
The biggest driver behind electric car adoption at the moment is China. It learnt the hard way about pollution.
There will always be a slim minority of people who deny climate change, links to asthma etc.
For those who don't want to give up their diesel/petrol cars, your existing cars won't be banned, just new petrol/diesel cars won't be on sale in 23 years' time.

The irony with China's position is that most of their electricity comes from coal and that is the cause of much of the polluton issues that they face. Just converting to electic transport without cleaning up the generating side will only make the pollution worse.

Paul 11-09-2017 14:01

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1 (Post 35916008)
For those who don't want to give up their diesel/petrol cars, your existing cars won't be banned, just new petrol/diesel cars won't be on sale in 23 years' time.

Which is basically a back handed way of banning them.

BenMcr 11-09-2017 14:44

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35916049)
Which is basically a back handed way of banning them.

It's not the first time that a change has been done to what type of cars you can drive.

At least this change gives everyone enough time to get used to it an plan, and should cover a lot of cars buy > use > replace cycle.

A little better than the two years given for cars running on leaded petrol http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/225275.stm

Osem 11-09-2017 14:44

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35916049)
Which is basically a back handed way of banning them.

Yes and in the meantime you can bet there'll be hefty increases in VED as well as things like emissions zones to contend with and pay through the nose for. This will in time lead to the same end so whether your vehicle has been 'banned' of is just too expensive to run it amounts to the same thing.

I hope the predicted improvements in battery/charging technology occur in good time because the extent to which that happens will determine if, where and how we're all going to be able to keep our vehicles sufficiently charged to be usable. Sooner or later a national infrastructure programme will be required and it'll take years to deliver so I just hope we're not all left high and dry without any choice.

papa smurf 11-09-2017 14:59

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
the future of british motoring

http://tuktukuk.com/buy-a-tuk-tuk/

Kursk 11-09-2017 15:11

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf (Post 35916058)
the future of british motoring

http://tuktukuk.com/buy-a-tuk-tuk/

It's petrol-powered. That's not the future. Try to keep up titch :monkey:

heero_yuy 11-09-2017 16:13

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
1 Attachment(s)
http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/at...2&d=1505139054

No electricty needed:D

Attachment 27082

1andrew1 11-09-2017 23:12

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35916049)
Which is basically a back handed way of banning them.

What do you suggest instead?
Left to market forces, I think it's a foregone conclusion anyway.

---------- Post added at 22:12 ---------- Previous post was at 22:11 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paul M (Post 35916049)
Which is basically a back handed way of banning them.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point.

heero_yuy 12-09-2017 11:14

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

USED diesels have fallen in value by as much as 26 per cent due to a string of scrappage schemes.

Thousands have been wiped off prices, with the Vauxhall Corsa down by over a quarter against an average diesel drop of 5.7 per cent in three months.

With tougher new clean air rules on the horizon Motorway.co.uk director Alex Buttle said: “Diesel cars are really starting to look like white elephants.”

The figures were released by Motorway.co.uk for the third quarter of 2017 after 24,000 car values were analysed during the year.

For the same period petrol cars saw a 5per cent rise in value as demand increased.

Concerns over diesel emissions were raised by the Volkswagen emissions scandal in September 2015.

Since then the UK Government has announced 'toxin taxes' which can see diesel drivers fined for taking their cars into cities.
Source

Looks like we could be rid of diesel cars sooner than 2040.

Kursk 12-09-2017 12:33

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by heero_yuy (Post 35916137)
Looks like we could be rid of diesel cars sooner than 2040.

Good, the sooner the better. Huge opportunity for diesel conversion to electric (with partial Government funding I would suggest)

Osem 12-09-2017 13:24

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Don't you just love the way governments encourage people to do stuff - e.g. buy diesel cars - but then decide it wasn't such a good idea after all and punish those who followed that advice... :spin:

In these days of 'convenience is king', I don't think a lot of people are going to be very happy faffing around in the dark, wind, raid, snow for example, plugging their cars in every day or two just to keep them reasonably usable. For those families which need more than one car, these problems will only be compounded. Yes of course there'll be those who have plenty of suitable off road parking who'll be able to pay for the best/quickest charging technology or even be lucky enough to charge their vehicles while they're parked in the office car park. What about those who don't have those options though? Are they going to find themselves effectively priced out of cars? :shrug:

Kursk 12-09-2017 13:47

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
But something has to be done. The very air we breathe is toxic and the danger level has been surpassed. We're all going to have to make sacrifices. At least electric is an option and we're not being told to give up our cars with no alternative. You can bet too that there is a vested interest in retaining the purchasing power of as many customers as possible.

What other solution is there?

pip08456 12-09-2017 13:50

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Kursk (Post 35916148)
Good, the sooner the better. Huge opportunity for diesel conversion to electric (with partial Government funding I would suggest)

At present that may be the case with cars but you still have HGV haulage and plant and machinery. The energy demands there are huge and present battery technology just can't handle it.

There is a possible alternative though, at present available as a one cylinder engine and being marketed. It may be possible with further R&D to produce 4,6,8 &12 cylinder engines, who knows?

Link

Kursk 12-09-2017 13:54

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by pip08456 (Post 35916162)
At present that may be the case with cars but you still have HGV haulage and plant and machinery. The energy demands there are huge and present battery technology just can't handle it.

There is a possible alternative though, at present available as a one cylinder engine and being marketed. It may be possible with further R&D to produce 4,6,8 &12 cylinder engines, who knows?

Link

Human achievement is too great to list. I'm sure we can come up with better batteries; the government has focussed minds with the deadline!

Damien 12-09-2017 13:55

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35916155)
What about those who don't have those options though? Are they going to find themselves effectively priced out of cars? :shrug:

A bit beyond moving to electric, which I think will happen sooner than 2040, but I believe car ownership itself won't be around for long. Instead people will call self-driving cars and be assigned one from a fleet owned by Google/Apple/Uber etc which will complete their journey then zip off somewhere else. With these cars being active more than most cars are now the cost per trip could be far less than what we effectively pay now for ownership, fuel, maintenance and insurance.

The benefits are massive: Less space will be required for parking as we would have fewer cars and those not active could go to a remote place rather than near town centers etc.

It's much safer as these cars could go faster, react quicker and make fewer mistakes than humans do plus they could communicate with each other. Imagine all these cars being networked and able to make adjustments to their speed/mapping based on the load of other cars up ahead.

It would solve this problem of charging as you no longer worry about parking or re-fueling cars.

I think before too long it will seem crazy that humans spent large amounts of money to own cars which spent most of their time parked and were driven by humans with their slow reaction times and who used signals to communicate to each other about their intentions.

pip08456 12-09-2017 13:59

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Osem (Post 35916155)
Don't you just love the way governments encourage people to do stuff - e.g. buy diesel cars - but then decide it wasn't such a good idea after all and punish those who followed that advice... :spin:

In these days of 'convenience is king', I don't think a lot of people are going to be very happy faffing around in the dark, wind, raid, snow for example, plugging their cars in every day or two just to keep them reasonably usable. For those families which need more than one car, these problems will only be compounded. Yes of course there'll be those who have plenty of suitable off road parking who'll be able to pay for the best/quickest charging technology or even be lucky enough to charge their vehicles while they're parked in the office car park. What about those who don't have those options though? Are they going to find themselves effectively priced out of cars? :shrug:

I think the future is driverless cars, no ownership. You'll have an app on your phone to book a car for your journey. If you are taking a long journey outside the range of the car then one will be available at a certain point in the journey, change cars and your first car will proceed to a recharging point.

heero_yuy 12-09-2017 14:21

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

The steering wheel device is named Sayer, after famed Jaguar designer Malcolm Sayer. It will be the only part of the car owned by the driver in a future where mobility solutions replace car ownership.

The Sayer is designed to be brought into its owner’s home and used in a similar fashion to Amazon’s voice-command device Alexa. It can even know what’s in your fridge and order your groceries, as connectivity in cars reaches new heights in the coming years.

Jaguar said the wheel is, in essence, a member card for its on-demand service club
Jaguar concept 2040

Osem 12-09-2017 14:24

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien (Post 35916164)
A bit beyond moving to electric, which I think will happen sooner than 2040, but I believe car ownership itself won't be around for long. Instead people will call self-driving cars and be assigned one from a fleet owned by Google/Apple/Uber etc which will complete their journey then zip off somewhere else. With these cars being active more than most cars are now the cost per trip could be far less than what we effectively pay now for ownership, fuel, maintenance and insurance.

The benefits are massive: Less space will be required for parking as we would have fewer cars and those not active could go to a remote place rather than near town centers etc.

It's much safer as these cars could go faster, react quicker and make fewer mistakes than humans do plus they could communicate with each other. Imagine all these cars being networked and able to make adjustments to their speed/mapping based on the load of other cars up ahead.

It would solve this problem of charging as you no longer worry about parking or re-fueling cars.

I think before too long it will seem crazy that humans spent large amounts of money to own cars which spent most of their time parked and were driven by humans with their slow reaction times and who used signals to communicate to each other about their intentions.

Now there you see is what is much more likely to be the reality. We're currently being allowed to labour under the notion that we can continue to have the freedom and flexibility we currently enjoy with our cars by switching to electric vehicles but that can't be the case for the reasons I've given above.

Whether we agree with the negative environmental impact of traditional car ownership/usage or not, the real world effect of these changes to what have become fundamental freedoms needs to be made clear to the public.

Right now I'm wondering how happy people are going to be having to pack/unpack their 'auto' car with the stuff they need for work/leisure every day, possibly multiple times a day. I'm wondering how many disabled friendly 'auto' vehicles will be available or whether the disabled will just have to wait longer to get anywhere because the wheelchair friendly vehicles are in short supply. There's a whole long list of potential problems with all of this and given the stakes, i.e. global warming, that might be something we're going to have to accept but that doesn't alter the fact that this all needs to be thought properly through. 2040 seems like a very long way away but it's no time at all in which to fully address the considerable societal changes that this is going to involve. Of course there will be positives and there may be little choice but we need to be aware of and accept the negatives as well don't we?

RizzyKing 12-09-2017 17:59

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
What about the freedom to drive out into the countryside I'm sure all this driverless tech will be great and more convenient for the majority but what about those of us who want to just go to the middle of nowhere for a rest. Really cannot see the infrastructure covering 100% of the country even by 2040 so it isn't all rosy and green in the future but no doubt those of us who enjoy that will be given the lecture about sacrifice for the greater good.

Osem 12-09-2017 18:20

Re: Petrol & diesel vehicles ban (2040).
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by RizzyKing (Post 35916190)
What about the freedom to drive out into the countryside I'm sure all this driverless tech will be great and more convenient for the majority but what about those of us who want to just go to the middle of nowhere for a rest. Really cannot see the infrastructure covering 100% of the country even by 2040 so it isn't all rosy and green in the future but no doubt those of us who enjoy that will be given the lecture about sacrifice for the greater good.

No problem, your 'auto' car will just take you there and drop you off then head off to do whatever else it needs to do to save the planet. Of course you won't be able to leave your picnic or anything else in the car for later, you'll have to carry it all with you until it's time to summon the next 'auto' car to pick you up and take you home. Sounds wonderful doesn't it... :rolleyes:


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