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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
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(Anybody But England) |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
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There will be an element of ABE about this too, but they wouldn't get their wish for quite a few years after Scottish independence, because they would have to reapply to join the EU as a new nation. Under the protective wing of the EU they have also benefited proportionally more from EU funding than England, e.g. through the Regional Development Fund. This could well be a factor. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
One thing in our favour is voting apathy,
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Well I certainly remember what the Common Market was supposed to be and it isn't the out of control behemoth which the EEC has morphed into.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
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If it's that cut and dry why are the only arguments I've heard so far in favour of staying in hyperbole and baseless claims regarding trade? I read material from a bunch of people, including heavily from Labour MPs and MEPs, and none have made a persuasive case. All fear, doom and gloom. The exact same arguments that were brought out to try and get the UK into the Eurozone. The Murdoch press are an easy target for sure, but I'm not convinced it's quite that simple. Indeed the hostility to some negative reports on the EU that can be heard south of the border makes me question this all the more. |
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It really is worth trawling through the EU myths site, not least because all official EU sites are bound in law to state facts accurately. Here you will find retorts to the bilge trotted out by the Europhobe press and politicians. http://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/blog/ |
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Largely because I don't read the Express and don't take the Mail as gospel. I'm not actually that interested in those claims and they aren't why I'm an 'outer'. |
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Being sparsely populated, immigration and benefits abuse (which feeds the debate in England, even if it isn't the real reason we ought to be pushing for Out) doesn't really figure up here. However, the SNPee has a major problem with any policy that is seen as being Tory, in that it is genetically hard-wired to be in opposition to it. The Nats are Europhiles because they see the Tories as Eurosceptics. Sadly, that is the infantilised state of Scottish politics these days. |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
I don't suppose the EU doing away with the Dublin arrangements will hurt the out campaign.
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(Which was, of course, a cynical, confected row designed to divert the hard-of-thinking from the truth with a good old fashioned rant against Tories "lecturing Scotland"). Honestly, there are still people around here who think there was some kind of astonishing, sophisticated political awakening in Scotland in 2014. All we actually have now is a situation where you rebut your opponent by denouncing them as "Red Tory", "Blue Tory" or "Tartan Tory", depending on your outlook and audience. I despair. Rant over. |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Wee Nippy's threats of a fresh referendum in the event of a vote to leave the EU is a lot of hot air. It's party management, pure and simple. There are about 100,000 permanently outraged Yessers in the ranks of the SNPee now and the last thing she wants is them getting rowdy, or worse, defenestrating her for not being nationalist enough. So, she plays to the gallery and keeps them hanging on.
Meanwhile, those in the nationalist movement with a brain (and there are some), know that the fundamentals of Scottish independence have not changed. For most Scottish voters it is a simple calculation of convenience, primarily economic convenience. Scots may prefer the EU, but they know that being in the UK, even if it is outside the EU, is preferable to being in the EU but outside the UK. The arguments over economic and monetary policy in 2014 were decisive and have not changed (if anything they have got worse, and it doesn't help the Nats that some of those that drew up the so-called white paper have now admitted that they knew it was nonsense on stilts even then). |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
If we weren't somewhat 'in' as far as we are already and the question was simply: "should we join the EU?" .......the answer would be "NO" (or words to that effect) :D
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As a country long before the EU we have managed to succeed I certainly can't see why we can't do it again. The only thing that bothers me is will we still be protected under working rights and family rights or will the gov see being out of the EU and setting their own laws a witch hunt against the population. |
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Thus nailing the lie that the UK would suffer outside the EU, wheras in reality the EU has failed us. Quote:
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Sir Michael Caine backs Brexit:
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I heard the interview on R4 Today programme. Sir Michael was quite firm. :tu: |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Well if the Eurocrats have embarked upon a behind the scenes campaign to manage the situation and thereby steer the UK into remaining, they're doing a pretty poor job. Just about every week which goes by brings a new example of EU ineptitude, dithering, infighting, procrastination or flawed thinking and I have a feeling things are going to get worse, much worse.
If the EU was a sinking ship I don't think its numerous masters would even get around to rearranging the deckchairs, let alone successfully evacuating it... |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
If I didn't want out before the tobacco products directive would have swung me never has there been such a bad piece of legislation and demonstrates all that is wrong with the EU, that said draft proposals by some within our political system are more disgusting. As the referendum comes closer I expect things to get dirtier and nastier and if we do vote to come out I expect Cameron to squirm trying to delay the exit as long as he can. Just give us the vote now and let's be done with it we all know Cameron isn't going to get anything really significant in terms of reform he'll get mud and try to dress it up as gold.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Leaving will not be a quick process as all sorts of things will have to be negotiated and put in place before the transition can be completed. There may even be protracted legal challenges to some of what would be necessary and that would inevitably delay things.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Sounds like just another opportunity for us to give the 'right' answer if we get it 'wrong' first time around... ;)
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
It's quite clear to me that the IN lot are going to try all sorts of tactics to get their way. Having said that, the EU continues, almost daily, to provide cast iron reasons why we should get out. The really big genie, uncontrolled migration, is of course out of its bottle and no amount of economic scaremongering by the likes of Stuart Rose will alter that.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The OUT side are looking increasingly desperate. Divided, disorganised with key players bought off or silenced. The UK isn't leaving the EU, its not going to be allowed, the 'referendum' is irrelevant. Quite right too, Dave's playing a blinder on this one, he's gone up in my estimation.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Outside the EU we can trade with other countries with the EU telling us if we can.
Plus we can send paedophiles to prison for whole life with out the EU saying its not legal. |
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'it's not going to be allowed'
did we wake up in Russia? Oh wait... |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Leave or stay is not cut and dried as the polls are 50:50. This summers tsunami of migrants might well tip the balance hence Dave's hurried, flustered "negotiations" with his EU masters in order to try and get the referendum before the magnitude of the chrisis becomes evident.
So far he's achieved next to nothing, because you get next to nothing when you ask for next to nothing, yet he keeps the anti EU ministers gagged whilst he continues to say the EU is best for us. So utterly spineless. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
So if we leave the EU what interest will the EU countries have in preventing illegal migrants from making their way to the UK?
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Right, let's stay in the EU because if we don't, they'll offload their migrants onto us, is that positive motivation or something ?
I'm sure with the monies saved, we could you know... have a border control - we are an island after all. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Yup, 'threats' - veiled or otherwise - are likely to further animate the out campaign.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
It's not as if the Out campaign won't also be disingenuous in their approach. I am also not sure that the 'threats' will result in a boost to the Out campaign. As I said before the fear factor is the best tool the In campaign have and unless Out can alleviate those fears with a coherent idea of what Britain will look like outside the EU then they may well be an effective weapons.
The fear of leaving the UK helped the Better Together campaign in Scotland. The fear of the Labour-SNP alliance helped the Tories win a majority. Fear sells. The Out campaign will be talking of migrants and the Eurozone. Welcome to politics. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Only time will tell whether threats actually work in influencing voters but there's no doubt in my mind that such tactics will give further ammunition to the out campaign since it's just that sort of 'big brother' behaviour which they claim is at the heart of what's wrong with the EU.
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The Out campaign will have to address the 'uncertainty' issue but rebutting the 'threats' with convincing facts. If they go down the 'bullying' route they'll lose. Labour tried the 'nasty Tories' angle when faced with the fear-mongering of the Tory campaign but they still lost convincingly partly because the threats worked. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The uncertainty issue is made a whole lot easier for the out campaign given the certain uncertainty of remaining in. Whether it's migration, the Eurozone, Greece or Polish dissent, the EU is in a state of chaos, which shows no sign of abating. Under such circumstances the role 'uncertainty' plays in the final vote will apply to both sides and not necessarily equally. Had things in the EU been going more smoothly in recent years and the UK now found itself in the doldrums, I'd suggest leaving would be far less appealing that it currently is. Thankfully, the EU has shown itself to be spectacularly inept and misguided just when it mattered most.
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The silent majority are apathetic and uninterested in the subject. However when forced to make a choice most of them will vote 'stay', or not vote. Fear of change and warnings from all corners about 'massive risks' to their own prosperity will swing it for most. The IN campaign has been going for months, the OUT campaign won't have time to get going, hence the rush for a vote. The public are easily manipulated by the media/those in power. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Bonkers Labour MP claims Indians fought in WW2 "for the European project."
http://order-order.com/2016/01/26/la...opean-project/ This is the kind of basic ignorance of recent history that Leave has to unpick. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Lammy reminds me of a male version of Dianne Abbot - she talks a load of old toffee too!
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
For some of us it isn't about the current state of the EU or the existing treaties it's that future many at the top of the EU want a single federal European state. The EU is a corrupt dysfunctional organisation and badly needs real reform trouble is no one involved with it at a level to actually reform it has the slightest interest in doing so. Scaremongering about how badly the UK would do out of the EU is a tactic I wholeheartedly encourage the "stay in" group to embrace and hammer relentlessly as it is complete rubbish. I believe the UK's best interests in future come with it being a truly independent entity free of the EU and an unexpected bonus might be an increase in the quality of the domestic political class once they no longer have the EU gravytrain to jump on once we wise up to them and vote them out.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
If the EU were a government - local or national - they'd have been voted them into oblivion years ago. Sadly, rather like FIFA, the Eurocrats have created themselves a nice cosy environment in which they can propagate their madness and create widespread mayhem unhindered by accountability for any of it. Is it any surprise therefore, that they've become so adept at believing their own rhetoric and perpetuating their own existence? Blatter and his cronies enjoyed years of back patting, lavish indulgence and self congratulation to the point that their indignance at being rumbled, even now, is quite staggering. The EU is really not very different IMHO. Defective, dishonest, incapable of reform and unfit for purpose - who'd want to remain within any such organisation?
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Some of the criticisms against the EU are valid – e.g. bureaucracy. However the benefits of a single market far outweigh them. Better to reform, which is to every countries benefit , than cut our noses off to spite our face. Leaving would hurt us more than the EU – it accounts for half of our exports.
I haven’t heard anything positive form the ‘out’ side about life outside the EU; just negative, jingoistic nonsense, and constant racist guff about immigration. Their campaign, if you can call it that, is doomed. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Mr K anyone would think there wasn't trade before the EU, we only joined it in 73, do you believe we didn't have trade all over the word prior to that?
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The EU will continue to trade with us whether we're in or out. Something the stay-inners are keen to forget in their scaremongering.
Also the total trade figure attributable to the EU also includes the "Rotterdam Effect" so the actual trade figures are lower than that. Quote:
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If access to the single market required full membership of the EU, again, I might agree with you, but it doesn't. The cost in terms of loss of sovereignty is now manifestly too high. The European project was never about creating a simple trading area, which is what the UK electorate was sold 40 years ago. We are a massive export market for several European economies (chief among them, Germany) and we are in a very good position to negotiate terms of access that are mutually beneficial to us and the EU. And, once un-shackled from the need to wait for the EU to negotiate trade deals for us, we can get to the important business of dealing with the great emerging economies of the world on our own terms. And those British businesses that form part of that 79% of trade that occurs entirely within our own borders, would in future only have to contend with market regulation cooked up in Westminster, where there are only 650 MPs, all of them British and familiar with the way we do business, instead of being forced to implement schemes that are actually designed as a protection racket for some inefficient, unreformed industry in the back end of somewhere hot and sunny where nobody does very much for most of the day. |
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Negotiating with the EU takes longer but is a stronger entity with a bigger market to offer prospective partners. The idea we're going to sign great deals in the national interest post-Brexit assumes a far more open world than actually exists. |
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You make it sound, by the way, as if trade in and out of the USA is somehow impossible or punitively expensive outside of any EU trade deal. That's simply not the case. An open market trade deal, of any nature, is going to be better than none at all, but even with none at all, trade can and does go on. |
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I don't think life outside the EU would be a disaster but the Outers are giving a wildly optimistic view of how easy it's going to be. |
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What exactly has the EU been doing, all these years? :scratch: |
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It's not easy to do despite the Out campaign making it seem like a matter of process. Maybe we could do faster but the would probably mean giving the US every they want. Again the UK alone will be the weaker party at the table for any deal involving the EU, USA or China. |
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Yeh, TTIP is going to be good.
From the same wikipedia link. "An October 2014 study by Jeronim Capaldo of the Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University indicates that there will be losses in terms of net exports, net losses in terms of GDP, loss of labor income, job losses, reduction of the labor share, loss of government revenue and higher financial instability among European countries" |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Don't think this surprises, does it? Bring our more expensive, higher quality, more ethically made products down to the standards of those made in the USA, or allow them to bring their products here without issues and it's bound to be an experience.
Seen the labels of some US 'food'? They use additives in place of the additives they used to use to replace natural ingredients as the first set of additives were too expensive. The massive delays as various countries try and protect their own vested interests are a welcome side-effect. The evidence seems to suggest that trade deals between the USA and pretty much any country are a complete shitbomb. I'd be fine with keeping the slight tariffs if in return they agree to keep that crap alongside the toxic gack they use in food production on their side of the Atlantic. Damien kinda has a point. We'd have a weaker hand with the USA on our own potentially. However the strong or weak hand is probably irrelevant as it looks as though our government look across at the USA's lack of employment security, environmental and other regulations, corrupt politics and extreme inequality with envy and visions of themselves and their circles wallowing even deeper in the muck of avarice. |
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Er, didn't we have elections in May 2014? And also every 5 years previously since the European Parliament was formed since 1979? The people we voted for in those elections are responsible for passing laws along with the Council of the European Union who are directly appointed by the Governments of the union.
I fail to see how people think of this being an undemocratic institution but maybe someone can name a part of the EU that we don't have some kind of say. |
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So only a brake if the rest of the EU agree.:rolleyes: How likely is that? |
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Someone once said that a camel is just a horse designed by committee... |
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All so much Euro-hot air I reckon. I can't see Cameron squeezing anything meaningful out of these people (even if he really wants to) and whatever they may promise I have a nasty feeling will never actually materialise. What mechanism is there, if any, for the UK to have another referendum should promises be reneged upon I wonder... :rolleyes: |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Without a proper treaty change to enshrine them the EU promises are just that and can be reneged upon at any time or indeed given away by UK governments in persuit of personal gains of the PM at the time. See EU rebate. ;)
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
So what we seem to have is:
- The ability to veto EU laws - No in-work benefits for EU migrants for a certain number of years. |
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- And in any case, does not answer the fundamental reason for euroscepticism, which is the erosion of Parliamentary sovereignty. |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Cameron doesn't want us out of the EU because his bosses, those who own and run industry, don't want us out of the EU. And any referendum is going to be a loaded question backed by mass propaganda paid for by bosses of industry. I doubt very much that the question will be a simple "in or out" one.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Whilst clamping down on in work benefits would be welcome, I don't see it stopping large scale EU migration. It's far easier to work and live under the radar in the UK than many EU countries and the draw factor will be a function of how good/bad things are elsewhere I'd have thought.
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At least the question can't be rigged, as for the rest.... |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The 'red card' is a Veto for a majority of national parliaments.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
It's out:
- No EU benefit ban. Instead they're 'graduated in'. - National parliaments can veto laws from the EU if 55% vote no. - Government can ban EU Citizens from the country if they pose a threat. Not amazing really. Apparently these pledges will be legally binding. |
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---------- Post added at 12:01 ---------- Previous post was at 11:53 ---------- ...and I can't see any cosy deals being done or undue pressure applied to smaller nations where the 55% threshold looks like being reached... :rolleyes: |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
'Emergency Brakes', 'Red Cards' - this all sounds excellent and very sexy !
Well done Dave ! :redcard: |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Decent summary here: http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02...-need-to-know/
---------- Post added at 13:12 ---------- Previous post was at 12:56 ---------- Big News: Cameron will BACK the In campaign. ---------- Post added at 13:28 ---------- Previous post was at 13:12 ---------- Even Bigger News: Farage isn't impressed with the deal - want's out. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Right, so the rather pointless theatre is all over, and we can now get on with the business of debating whether the EU is good for Great Britain or not.
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The issues are irrelevant, the public aren't interested. Most don't understand the economics. Just as long as those bleeding migrants are given the 'red card' or hit over the head with an 'emergency brake'; that will be enough for most voters, even if it means diddly squat in practice. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
I think this went as predicted with Cameron, like Osborne, claiming a great victory in negotiations with the EU.
First we had Osborne telling us that, after hard negotiating, he had wrestled concessions from the EU over the UK contribution to the EU budget, then we later discover that he had simply offset the UK rebate against the debt. Now we have Cameron coming down from the mountain telling us that his proposals for change, inadequate as they are, have been broadly accepted bar the detail. Unfortunately we still have the same problems:- a) we still can't control the number of EU migrants coming here b) we still can't deport foreign criminals c) we still have to pay a massive contribution to support the EU & to support the gravy train existence of MEPs d) we still have to pay the French to control their border as they are conveniently unable to control the outflow of migrants via the Channel tunnel e) we can't apply national vetos unless 55% of EU leaders agree but given that the UK is unpopular in Europe agreement seems unlikely, indeed Cameron cannot even rely on the support of his so-called allies in the EU When the EU referendum comes the citizens of the UK need to ensure that they do not make the same mistake with regard to the EU as the Scots did by choosing to remain in the UK. The government cannot be trusted with the best interests of UK citizens as they are already fixing the vote conditions to ensure that the UK remains within the EU. Heath took us in, Major kept us there and now Cameron wants to keep us there permanently. UK voters need to wake up to the idea that Cameron's proposals are just window dressing that mean nothing and we should all be ready to vote to leave the EU. |
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If we had mass migrants/refugee camps in Dover of people trying to get into France how willing would we be to help the French secure their borders and keep them here? |
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Maybe we should consider closing the Channel Tunnel or build an army base at this end to have greater control over who comes in. National security in the EU is a joke given the ease with which migrants can cross national borders. |
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Anyone else see this 55% veto thing being used against us in the future
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Better to be in the lifeboat when the ship goes down than re-arranging the deckchairs. |
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
The proposals have to be put to the other EU leaders and it will be interesting to see if they agree with them.
As it is Cameron's original proposals were inadequate at best, failing to address the concerns of ordinary people but even they have been watered down in such a way that we need the support of other EU leaders to carry things through rather than being to act independently irrespective of their support. It's time for Conservative sceptics to step up to the plate and challenge his leadership as he is leading them, the Conservative party and the country in the wrong direction. Failure to do so could lead to a massive loss of support as there is already a great mistrust of Conservative politicians especially after the expenses scandal and George Osborne's attempt to con the UK public that he had actually negotiated a reduction of our EU contribution when in reality he had simply used our rebate. Cameron's Conservatives are more concerned with promoting a successful image which as many voters have found is contrary to the truth. The much toted Universal State Pension for example only applies to people who retire following the legislation and not to all the other hard working qualifying pensioners who retired earlier. As for the EU proposals, my only hope is that the proposals are not accepted by the other EU leaders, which means that in the EU Referendum vote voters will have to vote on the basis of how things are now hopefully increasing the chances of a vote to leave. It will be very interesting to see how this turns out but like all these matters only time will tell what the outcome will be. |
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I have come to change my mind on being a pro-European.... Lets get the hell out.
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It's unravelling now, this wonderful deal that Dave has secured.:rolleyes: |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
I think a growing number of people have no faith whatsoever that the EU can be reformed. For me it's now simple - the vote is to either endure ever more of the same old Eurolalaland nonsense or just get out.
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re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
We'll need to find out how many children are actually in Switzerland as opposed to say Poland to know 'if it will cost more'. The payments will be index-linked to better match the country they're in.
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If this deal succeeds for every £350million Britain pays out in benefits it will save 99p. When it comes to abuse of the benefits system we need to look a little closer to home. These Europeans are not lieing and stealing from our system. They're paying taxes in and taking out what they're entitled to.
I read somewhere an example of a 27 year old Polish woman had paid more tax in the UK in 2 years than an entire family of British born benefit claiming citizens had paid in 50 years. So immigrants are not the problem! It's mostly British families it seems where mom, dad and all kids Jump straight on benefits. Where you have kids that have never seen mom or dad go out to work, then you see immigrant families with both parents working hounded for claiming a little back, it's heart breaking. |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Why we should be paying anyone for their children who're not living here is beyond me.
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Europe, that's why. Big UK businesses benefit from EU membership, wether or not that filters down to the man in the street I have no idea. |
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Some other immigrant groups are consuming a lot of resources but for whatever reason nothing is done beyond to continue welcoming them. A more contributory welfare system across the board would be great. |
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Considering that any cabinet "big beasts" in the leave faction are still gagged whilst he's spouting wildly optimistic promises, he's not doing too well. :) |
re: [Update] The UK votes to leave the EU
Better for them to keep their powder dry I reckon. Let the in campaign have the stage now and wait until nearer the time to expose to flaws in their proposition. Right now, the EU and its supporters are doing a great job of showing us just how fatally flawed the whole thing now is.
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